Trans-Pacific Transport of CO in the Upper Troposphere and Meridional Transport Across the Tropopause in the Mid--Latitudes
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On August 8, 2009, a private airplane collided with a sightseeing helicopter over the Hudson River near Hoboken, New Jersey. All three people aboard the airplane, the pilot and two passengers, and all six people aboard the helicopter, the pilot and five passengers, were killed. The National Transportation Safety Board report on the accident identified inherent limitations of the see-and-avoid concept, inadequate regulations, and errors by the pilots and an air traffic controller as causing or contributing to the accident. This paper presents the results of analyzing the accident using the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) approach to determining accident causation.
The Meteoroid Input Function (MIF) model has been developed with the purpose of understanding the temporal and spatial variability of the meteoroid impact in the atmosphere. This model includes the assessment of potential observational biases, namely through the use of empirical measurements to characterize the minimum detectable radar cross-section (RCS) for the particular High Power Large Aperture (HPLA) radar utilized. This RCS sensitivity threshold allows for the characterization of the radar system s ability to detect particles at a given mass and velocity. The MIF has been shown to accurately predict the meteor detection rate of several HPLA radar systems, including the Arecibo Observatory (AO) and the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR), as well as the seasonal and diurnal variations of the meteor flux at various geographic locations. In this paper, the MIF model is used to predict several properties of the meteors observed by the Middle and Upper atmosphere (MU) radar, including the distributions of meteor areal density, speed, and radiant location. This study offers new insight into the accuracy of the MIF, as it addresses the ability of the model to predict meteor observations at middle geographic latitudes and for a radar operating frequency in the low VHF band. Furthermore, the interferometry capability of the MU radar allows for the assessment of the model s ability to capture information about the fundamental input parameters of meteoroid source and speed. This paper demonstrates that the MIF is applicable to a wide range of HPLA radar instruments and increases the confidence of using the MIF as a global model, and it shows that the model accurately considers the speed and sporadic source distributions for the portion of the meteoroid population observable by MU.
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Spitzer synoptic monitoring of young stellar associations has demonstrated that variability among young stars and their disks is ubiquitous. The Spitzer studies have been limited by target visibility windows and cover only a short temporal baseline in years. A complementary approach is to focus on stars chosen for high-value observations (e.g. high-contrast imaging, interferometry, or access to wavelengths which are difficult to achieve from the ground) where the synoptic data can augment the imagery or interferometry as well as probing disk structure. In this talk, we discuss how synoptic data for two protoplanetary disks, MWC 480 and HD 163296, constrain the dust disk scale height, account for variable disk illumination, and can be used to locate emission features, such as the IR bands commonly associated with PAHs in the disk, as part of our SOFIA cycle 1 study. Similar variability is now known for several pre-transitional disks, where synoptic data can be used to identify inner disks which are not coplanar with the outer disk, and which may be relicts of giant planet-giant planet scattering events. Despite the logistical difficulties in arranging supporting, coordinated observations in tandem with high-value observations, such data have allowed us to place imagery in context, constrained structures in inner disks not accessible to direct imagery, and may be a tool for identifying systems where planet scattering events have occurred.
During a classic heat wave with record high temperatures and poor air quality from July 18 to 23, 2011, an elevated reservoir of air pollutants was observed over and downwind of Baltimore, MD, with relatively clean conditions near the surface. Aircraft and ozonesonde measurements detected approximately 120 parts per billion by volume ozone at 800 meters altitude, but approximately 80 parts per billion by volume ozone near the surface. High concentrations of other pollutants were also observed around the ozone peak: approximately 300 parts per billion by volume CO at 1200 meters, approximately 2 parts per billion by volume NO2 at 800 meters, approximately 5 parts per billion by volume SO2 at 600 meters, and strong aerosol optical scattering (2 x 10 (sup 4) per meter) at 600 meters. These results suggest that the elevated reservoir is a mixture of automobile exhaust (high concentrations of O3, CO, and NO2) and power plant emissions (high SO2 and aerosols). Back trajectory calculations show a local stagnation event before the formation of this elevated reservoir. Forward trajectories suggest an influence on downwind air quality, supported by surface ozone observations on the next day over the downwind PA, NJ and NY area. Meteorological observations from aircraft and ozonesondes show a dramatic veering of wind direction from south to north within the lowest 5000 meters, implying that the development of the elevated reservoir was caused in part by the Chesapeake Bay breeze. Based on in situ observations, Community Air Quality Multi-scale Model (CMAQ) forecast simulations with 12 kilometers resolution overestimated surface ozone concentrations and failed to predict this elevated reservoir; however, CMAQ research simulations with 4 kilometers and 1.33 kilometers resolution more successfully reproduced this event. These results show that high resolution is essential for resolving coastal effects and predicting air quality for cities near major bodies of water such as Baltimore on the Chesapeake Bay and downwind areas in the Northeast.
Despite starting off the month with hardly any precipitation, July 2018 turned out to be one of the wettest on record in the Baltimore/Washington D.C. area. Daily rainfall records were demolished as an entire month's worth of precipitation fell in a matter of days and flash flood warnings covered the region. Beginning on July 21, 2018, an atmospheric river, or a narrow stream of enhanced water vapor transport, positioned itself over the region, bringing gray skies and precipitation for days. This was captured by GMAO's Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and given the nearly 40-year record of MERRA-2, can be placed in the context of past events and the overall climate for the region during July. Not only was the multi-day rainfall out of character, but large-scale features throughout July differed from climatology and there were even bigger differences in the state of the atmosphere between the first and second halves of July 2018.
Despite modest emissions reductions of air pollutants in recent years, China still suffers from poor air quality, and the outlook for future air quality in China is uncertain. We explore the impact of two disparate 2050 emissions scenarios relative to 2015 in the context of a changing climate with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model version 3 (GFDL-AM3) chemistry-climate model. We impose the same near-term climate change for both emission scenarios by setting global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) to the average over 2010–2019 and 2046–2055, respectively, from a three-member ensemble of GFDL coupled climate model simulations under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. By the 2050s, annual mean surface ozone increases throughout China by up to 8 ppbv from climate change alone (estimated by holding air pollutants at 2015 levels while setting SIC and SST to 2050 conditions in the model) and by 8–12 ppbv in a scenario in which emissions of ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NO (sub x) ) and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) increase by ~10%. In a scenario in which NO (sub x) and anthropogenic VOC emissions decline by 60%, annual mean surface ozone over China decreases by 16–20 ppbv in the 2050s relative to the 2010s. The ozone increase from climate change alone results in an additional 62 000 premature deaths in China as compared to 330 000 fewer premature deaths by the 2050s under a strong emissions mitigation scenario. In springtime over Southwestern China in the 2050s, the model projects 9–12 ppbv enhancements to surface ozone from the stratosphere (diagnosed with a model tracer) and from international anthropogenic emissions (diagnosed by differencing AM3 simulations with the same emissions within China but higher versus lower emissions in the rest of the world). Our findings highlight the effectiveness of emissions controls in reducing the health burden in China due to air pollution, and also the potential for climate change and rising global emissions to offset, at least partially, some of the ozone decreases attained with regional emission reductions in China.
Plants are expected to generate more global-scale runoff under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through their influence on surface resistance to evapotranspiration. Recent studies using Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ostensibly reaffirm this result, further suggesting that plants will ameliorate the dire reductions in water availability projected by other studies that use aridity metrics. Here we complicate this narrative by analysing the change in precipitation partitioning to plants, runoff and storage in multiple Earth system models under both high carbon dioxide concentrations and warming. We show that projected plant responses directly reduce future runoff across vast swaths of North America, Europe and Asia because bulk canopy water demands increase with additional vegetation growth and longer and warmer growing seasons. These runoff declines occur despite increased surface resistance to evapotranspiration and vegetation total water use efficiency, even in regions with increasing or unchanging precipitation. We demonstrate that constraining the large uncertainty in the multimodel ensemble with regional-scale observations of evapotranspiration partitioning strengthens these results. We conclude that terrestrial vegetation plays a large and unresolved role in shaping future regional freshwater availability, one that will not ubiquitously ameliorate future warming-driven surface drying.
Defining a feasible vehicle design and mission architecture capable of reliably delivering apayload of 20 metric tons (mt) or more is a great challenge for landing humans on Mars. TheMid Lift-to-Drag Rigid Vehicle (MRV), a rigid decelerator studied in NASA’s Entry, Descent,and Landing Architecture Study (EDLAS), has shown to be a viable vehicle candidate forfuture human Mars missions. As the vehicle concept matures, models of increasing fidelity areadded to the six-degree-of-freedom (6DoF) EDL simulation. This paper presents 6DoFsimulation results using model updates for vehicle mass properties, fineness ratio, andaerodynamic-propulsive interactions. Additionally, an assessment of the Fractional-Polynomial Powered Descent Guidance (FP2DG) performance is presented, and the vehicleperformance is compared with the Tunable Apollo Powered Descent Guidance (TAPDG).Finally, Monte Carlo results of the vehicle design trades are presented.
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Long term measurements from several lidar instruments, located at 44.0 degree N, 40.6 degree N, 34.4 degree N, and 19.5 degree N, were used to develop a new climatology of the middle atmosphere temperature.
The SeaWinds on QuikSCAT scatterometer is a device developed by NASA JPL to measure the speed adn direction of ocean surface winds.