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At least 487 records · Page 27

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Environmental Thermodynamic Effects on Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Isolated Deep Convection Over the US: A Case Study

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) significantly influence local weather conditions and the hydrological cycle across the United States. Their future changes under warming is critical to the society. However, the exact impacts of thermodynamic environmental changes on them are difficult to resolve using climate model simulations which integrate both dynamic and thermodynamic factors. This study explores a theoretical modeling approach to isolate environmental thermodynamic effects on their future changes through a case study. For a 50-day period during the 2020 summer, a pair of convection-permitting model simulations indicate contrasting changes in MCSs and IDC between inland and coastal regions under pseudo global warming. Driven by the thermodynamic environments of these simulations, a single-column parcel model indicates a decrease in the frequency of IDC occurrences, along with increases in duration and precipitation amount under warming, attributable to rising most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), convective inhibition (MUCIN), and precipitable water (PW). A multi-column parcel model reveals contrasting changes in the frequency and mean area of MCSs between inland and coastal regions, underscoring the increase in mean MUCIN over inland regions and increases in mean MUCAPE and PW over coastal regions. The increase in mean MCS area over inland regions is linked to the interplay between accelerated gust fronts and enhanced subsidence strength, which is further traced to the unchanged mean MUCIN but increased mean MUCAPE in large-scale environments. In conclusion, these case study results suggest a major role of thermodynamic environmental changes in controlling characteristics of MCSs and IDC under warming.

Mesoscale convective system↗

Animation of multi-flexible body systems and its use in control system design

Animation can greatly assist the structural dynamicist and control system analyst with better understanding of how multi-flexible body systems behave. For multi-flexible body systems, the structural characteristics (mode frequencies, mode shapes, and damping) change, sometimes dramatically with large angles of rotation between bodies. With computer animation, the analyst can visualize these changes and how the system responds to active control forces and torques. A characterization of the type of system we wish to animate is presented. The lack of clear understanding of the above effects was a key element leading to the development of a multi-flexible body animation software package. The resulting animation software is described in some detail here, followed by its application to the control system analyst. Other applications of this software can be determined on an individual need basis. A number of software products are currently available that make the high-speed rendering of rigid body mechanical system simulation possible. However, such options are not available for use in rendering flexible body mechanical system simulations. The desire for a high-speed flexible body visualization tool led to the development of the Flexible Or Rigid Mechanical System (FORMS) software. This software was developed at the Center for Simulation and Design Optimization of Mechanical Systems at the University of Iowa. FORMS provides interactive high-speed rendering of flexible and/or rigid body mechanical system simulations, and combines geometry and motion information to produce animated output. FORMS is designed to be both portable and flexible, and supports a number of different user interfaces and graphical display devices. Additional features have been added to FORMS that allow special visualization results related to the nature of the flexible body geometric representations.

Juengst, Carl↗

Cybersecurity Enhancement for Multi-Infeed High-Voltage DC Systems

Composed of multiple two-terminal high-voltage DC (HVDC) transmission systems, a multi-infeed HVDC (MIDC) system exchanges massive power among multiple asynchronous AC systems. However, as an intrinsically cyber-physical system, an MIDC system could suffer from cyber-attacks, leading to massive power mismatches in multiple AC systems, and resulting in catastrophic consequences. Since the sequential responses of an MIDC system and interconnected AC systems are in different timescales, this paper first establishes a two-timescale model to evaluate the sequential impacts caused by cyber-attacks. Then, an event-triggered cyber-defense strategy is proposed to enhance the cybersecurity of an MIDC system by mitigating multiple non-simultaneous cyber-attacks. Whenever new cyber-attack events occur, the proposed cyber-defense strategy, which is mathematically modeled as a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem, is executed on-line and updated in an event-triggered manner. Here, simulation results on an MIDC system demonstrate that the low-cost and almost blind cyber-attacks can cause severe frequency deviations, and the proposed strategy can mitigate multi-cyber-attacks effectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Towards multi-qudit quantum processor using superconducting RF cavities

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities made using high-purity Niobium can reach single photon lifetimes longer than a second with proper treatment [1]. These resonator cavities are thus an excellent choice for storing higher-dimensional quantum states. However, preparing and manipulating quantum states with larger photon numbers require a nonlinear component, like a transmon, with a sufficiently long coherence time. With the advancement in materials processing enabling coherence times for transmons exceeding hundreds of micro-seconds, one can encode and process quantum information using d-levels (qudit) of the resonators. In this talk, we will present preliminary results showing the control of a single-qudit and our progress toward building multi-qudit architecture using multi-mode SRF cavities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Performance and Stability Analyses of Rocket Thrust Chambers with Oxygen/Methane Propellants

Liquid rocket engines using oxygen and methane propellants are being considered by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for future in-space vehicles. This propellant combination has not been previously used in flight-qualified engine systems developed by NASA, so limited test data and analysis results are available at this stage of early development. As part of activities for the Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project funded under the Exploration Technology Development Program, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been evaluating capability to model combustion performance and stability for oxygen and methane propellants. This activity has been proceeding for about two years and this paper is a summary of results to date. Hot-fire test results of oxygen/methane propellant rocket engine combustion devices for the modeling investigations have come from several sources, including multi-element injector tests with gaseous methane from the 1980s, single element tests with gaseous methane funded through the Constellation University Institutes Program, and multi-element injector tests with both gaseous and liquid methane conducted at the NASA MSFC funded by PCAD. For the latter, test results of both impinging and coaxial element injectors using liquid oxygen and liquid methane propellants are included. Configurations were modeled with two one-dimensional liquid rocket combustion analysis codes, the Rocket Combustor Interactive Design and Analysis code and the Coaxial Injector Combustion Model. Special effort was focused on how these codes can be used to model combustion and performance with oxygen/methane propellants a priori, and what anchoring or calibrating features need to be applied, improved or developed in the future. Low frequency combustion instability (chug) occurred, with frequencies ranging from 150 to 250 Hz, with several multi-element injectors with liquid/liquid propellants, and was modeled using techniques from Wenzel and Szuch. High-frequency combustion instability also occurred at the first tangential (1T) mode, at about 4500 Hz, with several multi-element injectors with liquid/liquid propellants. Analyses of the transverse mode instability were conducted by evaluating injector resonances and empirical methods developed by Hewitt.

Hulka, James R.↗

Interconnect and Packaging Technologies for Terahertz Communication Systems

Using newly developed silicon micromachining technology that enables low-loss and highly integrated packaging solutions, we are developing vertically stacked transmitters and receivers at terahertz frequencies that can be used for communication and other terahertz systems. Although there are multiple ways to address the problem of interconnect and packaging solutions at these frequencies, such as system-on-package (SOP), multi-chip modules (MCM), substrate integrated waveguide (SIW), liquid crystal polymer (LCP) based multilayer technologies, and others, we show that deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) based silicon micromachining with vertical integration allows the most effective solutions at terahertz frequencies.

Micromachining↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Inducer Natural Frequency using Conditional Assessment of Modeling and Modal Testing of Simpler Systems

The low pressure fuel pump inducer of the new Space Launch System RS25 core stage engine operates in a highly complex environment that substantially affects its modal characteristics. Some of the more important effects are fluid-added mass resulting from operation within a light liquid (Hydrogen), and the magnification of this effect due to tight tip clearance. Since higher order cavitation has been identified as a significant harmonic driver, knowledge of the natural frequency of potentially excitable modes is critical for safe operation, but this frequency cannot be measured during the severe operational environment. A comprehensive testing and analysis program has therefore been performed over the last four years to identify the nominal value and uncertainty of the frequency by modeling and testing four simpler structures which share some of the characteristics of the operational inducer. This testing was used to assess and adjust modeling techniques and excellent correlation was achieved. Identification of the uncertainty in the inducer frequency itself was still problematic, however. This difficulty led to an investigation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques, and to the application of the relatively simple technique of Multi-Variate Normal conditional distributions to calculate the inducer natural frequency uncertainty. Assumptions on prior distributions of uncertainty of the fluid-added mass and tip clearance effect are initially applied to models of each of the simple structures and the inducer itself, and these uncertainties are propagated to generate natural frequencies using design of experiments. Simple response surfaces are then created from this data in order to calculate a Covariance Matrix relating all of these natural frequencies. Finally, the results from modal test of the simple structures are considered to be observations and used to calculate the conditional variance of the desired inducer frequencies. As this method is less rigorous than more complicated Bayesian methods reported in the literature, a conservative factor is applied to the result, but the resulting uncertainty is still significantly less than originally estimated and will greatly assist certification of the inducer for use in the engine.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Inducer Eigenvalues using Conditional Assessment of Models and Modal Test of Simpler Systems

The low pressure fuel pump inducer of the new Space Launch System RS25 core stage engine operates in a highly complex environment that substantially affects its modal characteristics. Some of the more important effects are fluid-added mass resulting from operation within a light liquid (Hydrogen), and the magnification of this effect due to tight tip clearance. Since higher order cavitation has been identified as a significant harmonic driver, knowledge of the natural frequency of potentially excitable modes is critical for safe operation, but this frequency cannot be measured during the severe operational environment. A comprehensive testing and analysis program has therefore been performed over the last four years to identify the nominal value and uncertainty of the frequency by modeling and testing four simpler structures which share some of the characteristics of the operational inducer. This testing was used to assess and adjust modeling techniques and excellent correlation was achieved. Identification of the uncertainty in the inducer frequency itself was still problematic, however. This difficulty led to an investigation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques, and to the application of the relatively simple technique of Multi-Variate Normal conditional distributions to calculate the inducer natural frequency uncertainty. Assumptions on prior distributions of uncertainty of the fluid-added mass and tip clearance effect are initially applied to models of each of the simple structures and the inducer itself, and these uncertainties are propagated to generate natural frequencies using design of experiments. Simple response surfaces are then created from this data in order to calculate a Covariance Matrix relating all of these natural frequencies. Finally, the results from modal test of the simple structures are considered to be observations and used to calculate the conditional variance of the desired inducer frequencies. As this method is less rigorous than more complicated Bayesian methods reported in the literature, a conservative factor is applied to the result, but the resulting uncertainty is still significantly less than originally estimated and will greatly assist certification of the inducer for use in the engine.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Control considerations for high frequency, resonant, power processing equipment used in large systems

Addressed is a class of resonant power processing equipment designed to be used in an integrated high frequency (20 KHz domain), utility power system for large, multi-user spacecraft and other aerospace vehicles. It describes a hardware approach, which has been the basis for parametric and physical data used to justify the selection of high frequency ac as the PMAD baseline for the space station. This paper is part of a larger effort undertaken by NASA and General Dynamics to be sure that all potential space station contractors and other aerospace power system designers understand and can comfortably use this technology, which is now widely used in the commercial sector. In this paper, we will examine control requirements, stability, and operational modes; and their hardware impacts from an integrated system point of view. The current space station PMAD system will provide the overall requirements model to develop an understanding of the performance of this type of system with regard to: (1) regulation; (2) power bus stability and voltage control; (3) source impedance; (4) transient response; (5) power factor effects, and (6) limits and overloads.

Mildice, J. W.↗

Control considerations for high frequency, resonant, power processing equipment used in large systems

Addressed is a class of resonant power processing equipment designed to be used in an integrated high frequency (20 KHz domain), utility power system for large, multi-user spacecraft and other aerospace vehicles. It describes a hardware approach, which has been the basis for parametric and physical data used to justify the selection of high frequency ac as the PMAD baseline for the space station. This paper is part of a larger effort undertaken by NASA and General Dynamics to be sure that all potential space station contractors and other aerospace power system designers understand and can comfortably use this technology, which is now widely used in the commercial sector. In this paper, we will examine control requirements, stability, and operational modes; and their hardware impacts from an integrated system point of view. The current space station PMAD system will provide the overall requirements model to develop an understanding of the performance of this type of system with regard to: (1) regulation; (2) power bus stability and voltage control; (3) source impedance; (4) transient response; (5) power factor effects; and (6) limits and overloads.

Mildice, J. W.↗

Magnetic Compensation for Second-Order Doppler Shift in LITS

The uncertainty in the frequency of a linear-ion-trap frequency standard (LITS) can be reduced substantially by use of a very small magnetic inhomogeneity tailored to compensate for the residual second-order Doppler shift. An effect associated with the relativistic time dilatation, one cause of the second-order Doppler shift, is ion motion that is attributable to the trapping radio-frequency (RF)electromagnetic field used to trap ions. The second-order Doppler shift is reduced by using a multi-pole trap; however it is still the largest source of systematic frequency shift in the latest generation of LITSs, which are among the most stable clocks in the world. The present compensation scheme reduces the frequency instability of the affected LITS to about a tenth of its previous value. The basic principles of prior generation LITSs were discussed in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles. Below are recapitulated only those items of basic information necessary to place the present development in context. A LITS includes a microwave local oscillator, the frequency of which is stabilized by comparison with the frequency of the ground state hyperfine transition of 199Hg+ ions. The comparison involves a combination of optical and microwave excitation and interrogation of the ions in a linear ion trap in the presence of a nominally uniform magnetic field. In the current version of the LITS, there are two connected traps (see figure): (1) a quadrupole trap wherein the optical excitation and measurement take place and (2) a 12-pole trap (denoted the resonance trap), wherein the microwave interrogation takes place. The ions are initially loaded into the quadrupole trap and are thereafter shuttled between the two traps. Shuttling ions into the resonance trap allows sensitive microwave interrogation to take place well away from loading interference. The axial magnetic field for the resonance trap is generated by an electric current in a finely wound wire coil surrounded by magnetic shields. In the quadrupole and 12-pole traps, the potentials are produced by RF voltages applied to even numbers (4 and 12, respectively) of parallel rods equally spaced around a circle. The polarity of the voltage on each rod is opposite that of the voltage on the adjacent rod. As a result, the amplitude of the RF trapping field is zero along the centerline and increases, with radius, to a maximum value near the rods.

Burt, Eric↗

A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Effects of Solar Activities on Tropospheric Thermodynamics

Whether the Sun has significantly influenced the climate during the last century has been under extensive debates for almost two decades. Since the solar irradiance varies very little in a solar cycle, it is puzzling that some geophysical parameters show proportionally large variations which appear to be responding to the solar cycles. For example, variation in low altitude clouds is shown correlated with solar cycle, and the onset of Forbush decrease is shown correlated with the reduction of the vorticity area index. A possible sun-climate connection is that galactic cosmic rays modulated by solar activities influence cloud formation. In this paper, we apply wavelet transform to satellite and surface data to examine this hypothesis. Data analyzed include the time series for solar irradiance, sunspots, UV index, temperature, cloud coverage, and neutron counter measurements. The interactions among the elements in the Earth System under the external and internal forcings give out very complex signals.The periodicity of the forcings or signals could range widely. Since wavelet transforms can analyze multi-scale phenomena that are both localized in frequency and time, it is a very useful technique for detecting, understanding and monitoring climate changes.

Kiang, Richard K.↗

Active control of aircraft engine inlet noise using compact sound sources and distributed error sensors

An active noise control system using a compact sound source is effective to reduce aircraft engine duct noise. The fan noise from a turbofan engine is controlled using an adaptive filtered-x LMS algorithm. Single multi channel control systems are used to control the fan blade passage frequency (BPF) tone and the BPF tone and the first harmonic of the BPF tone for a plane wave excitation. A multi channel control system is used to control any spinning mode. The multi channel control system to control both fan tones and a high pressure compressor BPF tone simultaneously. In order to make active control of turbofan inlet noise a viable technology, a compact sound source is employed to generate the control field. This control field sound source consists of an array of identical thin, cylindrically curved panels with an inner radius of curvature corresponding to that of the engine inlet. These panels are flush mounted inside the inlet duct and sealed on all edges to prevent leakage around the panel and to minimize the aerodynamic losses created by the addition of the panels. Each panel is driven by one or more piezoelectric force transducers mounted on the surface of the panel. The response of the panel to excitation is maximized when it is driven at its resonance; therefore, the panel is designed such that its fundamental frequency is near the tone to be canceled, typically 2000-4000 Hz.

Burdisso, Ricardo↗

Active control of aircraft engine inlet noise using compact sound sources and distributed error sensors

An active noise control system using a compact sound source is effective to reduce aircraft engine duct noise. The fan noise from a turbofan engine is controlled using an adaptive filtered-x LMS algorithm. Single multi channel control systems are used to control the fan blade passage frequency (BPF) tone and the BPF tone and the first harmonic of the BPF tone for a plane wave excitation. A multi channel control system is used to control any spinning mode. The multi channel control system to control both fan tones and a high pressure compressor BPF tone simultaneously. In order to make active control of turbofan inlet noise a viable technology, a compact sound source is employed to generate the control field. This control field sound source consists of an array of identical thin, cylindrically curved panels with an inner radius of curvature corresponding to that of the engine inlet. These panels are flush mounted inside the inlet duct and sealed on all edges to prevent leakage around the panel and to minimize the aerodynamic losses created by the addition of the panels. Each panel is driven by one or more piezoelectric force transducers mounted on the surface of the panel. The response of the panel to excitation is maximized when it is driven at its resonance; therefore, the panel is designed such that its fundamental frequency is near the tone to be canceled, typically 2000-4000 Hz.

Burdisso, Ricardo↗

(abstract) Topographic Signatures in Geology

Topographic information is required for many Earth Science investigations. For example, topography is an important element in regional and global geomorphic studies because it reflects the interplay between the climate-driven processes of erosion and the tectonic processes of uplift. A number of techniques have been developed to analyze digital topographic data, including Fourier texture analysis. A Fourier transform of the topography of an area allows the spatial frequency content of the topography to be analyzed. Band-pass filtering of the transform produces images representing the amplitude of different spatial wavelengths. These are then used in a multi-band classification to map units based on their spatial frequency content. The results using a radar image instead of digital topography showed good correspondence to a geologic map, however brightness variations in the image unrelated to topography caused errors. An additional benefit to the use of Fourier band-pass images for the classification is that the textural signatures of the units are quantative measures of the spatial characteristics of the units that may be used to map similar units in similar environments.

topography geology texture Fourier analysis↗

Multi-harmonic Rutherford island theory

Rutherford island theory, which governs the nonlinear evolution of tearing modes in tokamak plasmas, is generalized to take into account situations in which the conventional one-harmonic approximation is not valid. The analysis incorporates non-inductive currents driven by radio frequency (RF) electromagnetic waves injected into the plasma. A multi-harmonic tearing mode dispersion relation is derived that takes the form of a nonlinear inhomogeneous matrix eigenvalue problem. The dispersion relation is solved in the so-called two-harmonic approximation, in which only the principal Fourier harmonic of the perturbed magnetic flux and its first overtone are included in the calculation. In the absence of RF current drive, the nonlinear behavior of a tearing mode predicted in the two-harmonic approximation does not differ substantially from that predicted in the one-harmonic approximation. On the other hand, RF current drive that is sufficiently localized in the vicinity of the O-points of the mode's magnetic island chain is capable of triggering bifurcations of the O-points (which is impossible in the one-harmonic approximation). However, the current drive is incapable of triggering bifurcations of the island X-points. This finding is significant because Bardóczi and Evans recently observed bifurcations of magnetic island chain O-points in the presence of RF current drive in the DIII-D tokamak but did not observe bifurcations of the X-points. Finally, the changes in the topology of the magnetic island flux-surfaces induced by RF current drive are found to facilitate the stabilization of the tearing mode.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗