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At least 487 records · Page 27

Exploring urban typologies using comprehensive analysis of transportation dynamics

Abstract As urban areas continue to expand and develop, categorizing cities into typologies offers a valuable framework for understanding metropolitan dynamics and fostering inter-city collaboration. However, existing typologies related to urban mobility have limitations, failing to consider cities within a single large urban region and often overlooking crucial dimensions such as trip demand and traffic flow. In this paper, we introduce a transportation-focused characterization for cities within a large urban region, specifically the San Francisco Bay Area, California. We incorporate over 40 metrics across five transportation dimensions: trip demand, road network, multi-modal network, traffic flow, and land use. Specifically, for the trip demand dimension, we include metrics capturing residents’ trip characteristics, such as mode share, intra-city trips, and inter-city trips. Additionally, we analyze the purpose of trips entering the city to gain a deeper understanding of incoming trip patterns. In the traffic flow dimension, we examine metrics like vehicle miles traveled, delay, and congestion to assess the traffic conditions on the street network. These, combined with other dimensions, provide a comprehensive view of a city’s transportation dynamics. Using unsupervised machine learning clustering methods, we identified eight distinct typologies for the Bay Area: Live Work Cities; Job and Activity Magnet Cities; Anchor Cities; Multi-modal Cities; Hyper-connected Cities; Low-density Residential Cities; Medium-density Residential Cities; and Mixed-use Residential Cities. Our findings show that many clusters are strongly influenced by trip demand and traffic flow metrics. Finally, we examine the practicality of this typology and its potential to guide collaborative transportation management strategies. The typologies provide a foundation for dialogue among Bay Area cities, focusing on evaluating shared characteristics and leveraging successes or challenges to develop unified strategies for transportation management.

Kuncheria, Anu↗

Application of Energy Integration Techniques to the Design of Advanced Life Support Systems

Exchanging heat between hot and cold streams within an advanced life support system can save energy. This savings will reduce the equivalent system mass (ESM) of the system. Different system configurations are examined under steady-state conditions for various percentages of food growth and waste treatment. The scenarios investigated represent possible design options for a Mars reference mission. Reference mission definitions are drawn from the ALSS Modeling and Analysis Reference Missions Document, which includes definitions for space station evolution, Mars landers, and a Mars base. For each scenario, streams requiring heating or cooling are identified and characterized by mass flow, supply and target temperatures and heat capacities. The Pinch Technique is applied to identify good matches for energy exchange between the hot and cold streams and to calculate the minimum external heating and cooling requirements for the system. For each pair of hot and cold streams that are matched, there will be a reduction in the amount of external heating and cooling required, and the original heating and cooling equipment will be replaced with a heat exchanger. The net cost savings can be either positive or negative for each stream pairing, and the priority for implementing each pairing can be ranked according to its potential cost savings. Using the Pinch technique, a complete system heat exchange network is developed and heat exchangers are sized to allow for calculation of ESM. The energy-integrated design typically has a lower total ESM than the original design with no energy integration. A comparison of ESM savings in each of the scenarios is made to direct future Pinch Analysis efforts.

Levri, Julie↗

LX-17 Thermal Decomposition-Characterization of Solid Residues from Cook-Off in a Small-Scale Vessel Under Confinement

Concerns surround whether insensitive (or any) energetic materials are more dangerous to handle when exposed to abnormal thermal environments. This study characterizes the residual material remaining after LX-17 (92.5 % 1,3,5-triamino 2,4,6-trinitro benzene (TATB) and 7.5 % Kel-F) is exposed to various thermal environments in a sealed small-scale vessel cook-off test reactor (heated at 0.1 to 100 °C/min until the reactor opened at 3000 psi (20.7 MPa)). Previous work has shown no additional sensitivity of these residues as evaluated by small-scale safety analysis, but characterization on the molecular scale indicates the TATB is transformed to more reactive compounds as well as the residue could be precursors to toxic gases. The solids and chars were characterized by various analytical methods. Heat-flow measurements indicated exothermic release is due to a mixture of residual TATB and related decomposition products (which may be more energetic). The N/C and O/N ratios indicated a material much more degraded than TATB. Primarily, the solids were a network of amorphous C inter-dispersed with N and O. Types of bonding include C–C, C–N, N–H, N–C, N=C, N≡C, C–O=, and –OH. Solvent extracts of the solids showed TATB decomposition intermediates benzo-furazans and benzo-furoxans, substituted TATB (mono-nitroso, hydroxyl, and chlorinated) along with several unidentified smaller molecules. These results indicate thermal treatment produces an amorphous carbon residue with heteroatoms incorporated through differing functionality, varying depending upon the thermal severity of exposure. These structures also could further decompose producing toxic light gases (such as cyanide).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multiphysics Lattice Discrete Particle Modeling (M-LDPM) for the Simulation of Shale Fracture Permeability

A three-dimensional multiphysics lattice discrete particle model (M-LDPM) framework is formulated to investigate the fracture permeability behavior of shale. The framework features a dual lattice system mimicking the mesostructure of the material and simulates coupled mechanical and flow behavior. The mechanical lattice model simulates the granular internal structure of shale, and describes heterogeneous deformation by means of discrete compatibility and equilibrium equations. The network of flow lattice elements constitutes a dual graph of the mechanical lattice system. A discrete formulation of mass balance for the flow elements is presented to model fluid flow along cracks and intact materials. The overall computational framework is implemented with a mixed explicit–implicit integration scheme and a staggered coupling method that makes use of the dual lattice topology enabling the seamless two-way coupling of the mechanical and flow behaviors. The proposed model is used for the computational analysis of shale fracture permeability behavior by simulating triaxial direct shear tests on Marcellus shale specimens under various confining pressures. The simulated mechanical response is calibrated against the experimental data, and the predicted permeability values are also compared with the experimental measurements. Moreover, the paper presents the scaling analysis of both the mechanical response and permeability measurements based on simulations performed on geometrically similar specimens with increasing size. The simulated stress strain curves reflect a significant size effect in the post-peak due to the presence of localized fractures. The scaling analysis of permeability measurements enables prediction of permeability for large specimens by extrapolating the numerical results of small ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Internal and near nozzle measurements of Engine Combustion Network “Spray G” gasoline direct injectors

Gasoline direct injection (GDI) sprays are complex multiphase flows. When compared to multi-hole diesel sprays, the plumes are closely spaced, and the sprays are more likely to interact. The effects of multi-jet interaction on entrainment and spray targeting can be influenced by small variations in the mass fluxes from the holes, which in turn depend on transients in the needle movement and small-scale details of the internal geometry. In this paper, we present a comprehensive overview of a multi-institutional effort to experimentally characterize the internal geometry and near-nozzle flow of the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray G gasoline injector. In order to develop a complete picture of the near-nozzle flow, a standardized setup was shared between facilities. A wide range of techniques were employed, including both X-ray and visible-light diagnostics. The novel aspects of this work include both new experimental measurements, and a comparison of the results across different techniques and facilities. The breadth and depth of the data reveal phenomena which were not apparent from analysis of the individual data sets. We show that plume-to-plume variations in the mass fluxes from the holes can cause large-scale asymmetries in the entrainment field and spray structure. Both internal flow transients and small-scale geometric features can have an effect on the external flow. The sharp turning angle of the flow into the holes also causes an inward vectoring of the plumes relative to the hole drill angle, which increases with time due to entrainment of gas into a low-pressure region between the plumes. In conclusion, these factors increase the likelihood of spray collapse with longer injection durations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Even Higher-Level Synthesis: An Exploration of AI Hardware Accelerators using HLS4ML

With the rise of artificial intelligence, the popularization of deep learning, and a constantly evolving industry, the demand for flexible and efficient tools has never been greater. As algorithms grow more complex, their runtime and energy consumption increase exponentially. Customized hardware accelerators, long used for specific mathematical operations, remain essential for managing modern applications' computational and power demands. Hardware accelerators can speed up complex computations by orders of magnitude, but their manual design and verification processes are often challenging and time-consuming. High-Level Synthesis (HLS) provides a solution by transforming high-level algorithm descriptions, typically written in C++ or SystemC, into synthesizable RTL suitable for hardware implementation. This approach reduces development time for RTL engineers while offering flexibility beyond what traditional handwritten RTL can provide. We extended this capability to the machine-learning domain with the open-source framework hls4ml, which allows neural networks trained in Python frameworks like Tensorflow or PyTorch to be synthesized into efficient hardware representations for the traditional FPGA and ASIC flows. This breakthrough addresses the growing need for reduced design turnaround and easy verification of ML hardware accelerators with low latency and power efficiency constraints. During this tutorial, we will demonstrate how Python complements HLS by simplifying the ML design process, bridging the gap between software and hardware development. Attendees will explore how we translate neural networks modeled in Python into fixed-point C++ models suitable for HLS workflows. We will dive into strategies like Value-Range Analysis and Quantization-Aware Training, which optimize these designs for deployment and evaluate their accuracy, power consumption, and energy efficiency. To exemplify these concepts, experts from Fermilab will share their experiences applying this technology to high-energy physics experiments, where real-time, low-latency processing is critical. Over the years, Fermilab engineers have demonstrated how deep neural networks, optimized for hardware using hls4ml, can meet the stringent requirements of trigger systems at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. These systems rely on rapid decision-making to process immense data volumes while retaining only the most relevant events for further analysis. The application of hls4ml has also been extended to innovative technologies like smart pixel arrays. These smart pixels integrate ML inference capabilities directly into sensor devices, enabling localized data processing at the pixel level. This approach drastically reduces the need to transmit raw data to external processing units, significantly decreasing power consumption and latency. By embedding neural networks within the pixel architecture, the smart pixels can identify and prioritize relevant data in real time, providing a highly efficient solution for edge computing in scenarios such as particle detectors and imaging systems. Fermilab's work highlights the potential of hardware-accelerated ML in scenarios where both speed and power efficiency are mission-critical. Through this tutorial, attendees will gain valuable insights into the challenges and solutions of deploying ML in hardware. Understanding how HLS and hls4ml streamline the development of neural network-based hardware accelerators is fundamental for the industry's future. Participants will learn how these technologies are shaping the future of AI and scientific computing.

Di Guglielmo, Giuseppe [Fermilab]↗

A Distributed Approach to High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking Within a Virtualized Environment

The High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) project has taken a distributed service-based approach to the development of a highly efficient delay tolerant networking (DTN) implementation. Through the analysis of many DTN implementations, system and mission requirements as well as the DTN protocol specifications, HDTN has worked to infuse modern computing technologies into the NASA approach to interplanetary networking. The initial use case of the HDTN software runs on a hypervisor representative of the International Space Station (ISS) DTN Gateway. In this scenario, multiple emulated payloads will send science data through HDTN to a mission operations center. HDTN will provide store and forward capability as well as network flow management. This paper discusses the infusion path of cognitive networking technologies in the NASA SCaN networks using the DTN architecture and protocols as the basis for cognitive routing and network management capabilities. HDTN has been developing the Bundle Protocol encoding and decoding mechanisms and messaging framework that can be used as the basis for integrating DTN with various learning and decision-making processes. The concepts of distributed computing, network virtualization, software defined networking and delay tolerant networking are basic building blocks which will further the development of cognitive networking. In addition to discussion of the HDTN software development and testing, this paper examines the role that each of these technologies play in the evolution of the current state of space networking into an intelligent network of networks.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗

A Distributed Approach to High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking Within a Virtualized Environment

The High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) project has taken a distributed service-based approach to the development of a highly efficient delay tolerant networking (DTN) implementation. Through the analysis of many DTN implementations, system and mission requirements as well as the DTN protocol specifications, HDTN has worked to infuse modern computing technologies into the NASA approach to interplanetary networking. The initial use case of the HDTN software runs on a hypervisor representative of the International Space Station (ISS) DTN Gateway. In this scenario, multiple emulated payloads will send science data through HDTN to a mission operations center. HDTN will provide store and forward capability as well as network flow management. This paper discusses the infusion path of cognitive networking technologies in the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) networks using the DTN architecture and protocols as the basis for cognitive routing and network management capabilities. HDTN has been developing the Bundle Protocol encoding and decoding mechanisms and messaging framework that can be used as the basis for integrating DTN with various learning and decision-making processes. The concepts of distributed computing, network virtualization, software defined networking and delay tolerant networking are basic building blocks which will further the development of cognitive networking. In addition to discussion of the HDTN software development and testing, this paper examines the role that each of these technologies play in the evolution of the current state of space networking into an intelligent network of networks.

Rachel Mary Dudukovich↗

Impact of Polymer Rheology on Gel Treatment Performance of Horizontal Wells with Severe Channeling

Summary Gel treatment has been a cost-effective method to control the conformance of a reservoir with severe heterogeneity problems. The water channels in such reservoirs can be classified as open fractures or high permeability porous media with pore-throat network. Many simulation studies have been conducted to discuss gel treatment performance for conformance control. However, nobody considered the polymer rheology difference in open fractures and porous media in simulation. Previous simulation studies also ignored the residual resistance factor as a function of rock permeability rather than a constant parameter. In this study, a conceptual simulation model was established to simulate the linear flow system for the reservoir with horizontal wells considering the two factors mentioned above. The results demonstrate that the gel treatment always provides the better placement results in the open fracture type channel than pore-throat network type channel. Moreover, it is very necessary to consider residual resistance factor as a function of permeability, which is based on the experimental results and can provide much greater plugging efficiency in the higher permeable channels than constant residual resistance factor. Sensitivity analysis studies and multifactor analysis indicate that increasing oil viscosity and permeability ratio has a strong positive influence on conformance control results, which indicate in-situ gel treatment can be better applied in heavy or viscous oil reservoirs with fracture-like channels. Besides, the results also indicate that in reservoirs with severe channeling problem where channel velocity was high, the differences of gelant placement and profile improvement in models with two different types of channels could be enlarged greatly.

Engineering↗

NASA Tech Briefs, November 1995

The contents include: 1) Mission Accomplished; 2) Resource Report: Marshall Space Flight Center; 3) NASA 1995 Software of the Year Award; 4) Microbolometers Based on Epitaxial YBa2Cu3O(sub 7-x) Thin Films; 5) Garnet Random-Access Memory; 6) Fabrication of SNS Weak Links on SOS Substrates; 7) High-Voltage MOSFET Switching Circuit; 8) Asymmetric Switching for a PWM H-Bridge Power Circuit; 9) Better Ohmic Contacts for InP Semiconductor Devices; 10) Low-Bandgap Thermovoltaic Materials and Devices; 11) Digital Frequency-Differencing Circuit; 12) Imaging Magnetometer; 13) Computer-Assisted Monitoring of a Complex System; 14) Buffered Telemetry Demodulator; 15) Compact Multifunction Inspection Head; 16) Optical Detection of Fractures in Ceramic Diaphragms; 17) Eddy-Current Detection of Cracks in Reinforced Carbon/Carbon; 18) Apparent Thermal Conductivity of Multilayer Insulation; 19) Optimizing Misch-Metal Compositions in Metal Hydride Anodes; 20) Device for Sampling Surface Contamination; 21) Probabilistic Failure Assessment for Fatigue; 22) Probabilistic Fatigue and Flaw-Propagation Analysis; 23) Windows Program for Driving the TDU-850 Printer; 24) Subband/Transform MATLAB Functions for Processing Images; 25) Computing Equilibrium Chemical Compositions; 26) Program Processes Thermocouple Readings; 27) ICAN-Second-Generation Integrated Composite Analyzer; 28) Integrated Composite Analyzer with Damping Capabilities; 29) Computing Efficiency of Transfer of Microwave Power; 30) Program Calculates Power Demands of Electronic Designs; 31) Cost-Estimation Program; 32) Program Estimates Areas Required by Electronic Designs; 33) Program to Balance Mapped Turbopump Assemblies; 34) BiblioTech; 35) Controlling Mirror Tilt With a Bimorph Actuator; 36) Burst-Disk Device Simulates Effect of Pyrotechnic Device; 37) Bearing-Mounting Concept Accommodates Thermal Expansion; 38) Parallel-Plate Acoustic Absorbers for Hot Environments; 39) Adjustable-Length Strut Withstands Large Cyclic Loads; 40) Tool Indicates Contact Angles in Bearing Raceways; 41) Gravity Slides With Magnetic Braking; 42) High-Torque, Lightweight, Pneumatically Driven Wrench for Small Spaces; 43) Device for Testing Compatibility of an O-Ring; 44) Magnetic Heat Pump Containing Flow Diverters; 45) Variable-Tilt Helicopter Rotor Mast; 46) "Beach-Ball" Robotic Rovers; 47) Apparatus Would Measure Temperatures of Ball Bearings; 48) Flexible Borescope for Inspecting Ducts; 49) Texturing Copper To Reduce Secondary Emission of Electrons; 50) Automated Laser Cutting in Three Dimensions; 51) Algorithm Helps Monitor Engine Operation; 52) Flexible Revision of Data-Processing Communications; 53) Software for Managing the Use of Land; 54) Thermal Strap Increases Cryocooling Efficiency; 55) Reversible Nut With Engagement Indication; 56) Control Algorithms for Kinematically Redundant Manipulators; 57) Computed Hydrogen-Flow Splits in a Rocket Engine; 58) Pressure and Thermal Modeling of Rocket Launches; 59) Field of View of a Spacecraft Antenna: Analysis and Software; 60) Digital Controller for Laser-Beam-Steering Subsystem; 61) More About Beam-Steering Subsystem for Laser Communication; 62) Digital Controller for Laser-Beam-Steering Subsystem: Part 2; 63) Interface Circuit Board for Space-Shuttle Communications; 64) Automated Planning of Spacecraft Telecommunications; 65) Artifacts of Spectral Analysis of Instrument Readings; 66) Neural-Network Controller for Vibration Suppression; 67) Adaptive Finite-Element Computation in Fracture Mechanics; 68) Attitude Control for the Cassini Spacecraft; 69) Analytical Model for Fluid Dynamics in a Microgravity Environment; 70) Study of Rocket-Engine Joints Bonded by NVCU/NARloy-Z; 71) Improved Silicon Nitride for Advanced Heat Engines; 72) Parameters for Welding Aluminum/Lithium Alloys; 73) Lightweight Composite Intertank Structure; 74) Foil Patches Seal Small Vacuum Leaks; 75) Data Base on Cables and Connectors; 76) Effect of Clock Mode on Radiation Hardnessf an ADC; and 77) Fault-Tolerant Control for a Robotic Inspection System.

Source record↗

Concepts to Support HRP Integration Using Publications and Modeling

Initial efforts are underway to enhance the Human Research Program (HRP)'s identification and support of potential cross-disciplinary scientific collaborations. To increase the emphasis on integration in HRP's science portfolio management, concepts are being explored through the development of a set of tools. These tools are intended to enable modeling, analysis, and visualization of the state of the human system in the spaceflight environment; HRP's current understanding of that state with an indication of uncertainties; and how that state changes due to HRP programmatic progress and design reference mission definitions. In this talk, we will discuss proof-of-concept work performed using a subset of publications captured in the HRP publications database. The publications were tagged in the database with words representing factors influencing health and performance in spaceflight, as well as with words representing the risks HRP research is reducing. Analysis was performed on the publication tag data to identify relationships between factors and between risks. Network representations were then created as one type of visualization of these relationships. This enables future analyses of the structure of the networks based on results from network theory. Such analyses can provide insights into HRP's current human system knowledge state as informed by the publication data. The network structure analyses can also elucidate potential improvements by identifying network connections to establish or strengthen for maximized information flow. The relationships identified in the publication data were subsequently used as inputs to a model captured in the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), which functions as a repository for relationship information to be gleaned from multiple sources. Example network visualization outputs from a simple SysML model were then also created to compare to the visualizations based on the publication data only. We will also discuss ideas for building upon this proof-of-concept work to further support an integrated approach to human spaceflight risk reduction.

Mindock, J.↗

Relationship between isotope ratios in precipitation and stream water across watersheds of the National Ecological Observation Network

The timescales associated with precipitation moving through watersheds reveal processes that are critical to understanding many hydrologic systems. Measurements of environmental stable water isotope ratios (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) have been used as tracers to study hydrologic timescales by examining how long it takes for incoming precipitation tracers become stream discharge, yet limited measurements both spatially and temporally have bounded macroscale evaluations so far. Here in this observation driven study across North American biomes within the National Ecological Observation Network (NEON), we examined δ 18 O and δ 2 H stable water isotope in precipitation (δP) and stream water (δQ) at 26 co-located sites. With an average 54 precipitation samples and 139 stream water samples per site collected over 2014–2022, assessment of local meteoric water lines and local stream water lines showed geographic variation across North America. Taking the ratio of estimated seasonal amplitudes of δP and δQ to calculate young water fractions (F yw ), showed a Fyw range from 1% to 93% with most sites having F yw below 20%. Calculate d mean transit times (MTT) based on a gamma convolution model showed a MTT range from 0.10 to 13.2 years, with half of the sites having MTT estimates lower than 2 years. Significant correlations were found between the F yw and watershed area, longest flow length, and the longest flow length/slope. Significant correlations were found between MTT and site latitude, longitude, slope, clay fraction, temperature, precipitation magnitude, and precipitation frequency. The significant correlations between water timescale metrics and the environmental characteristics we report share some similarities with those reported in prior studies, demonstrating that these quantities are primarily driven by site or area specific factors. The analysis of isotope data presented here provides important constraints on isotope variation in North American biomes and the timescales of water movement through NEON study sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Mechanics of Atmospheric Systems Derived Through Vertical and Horizontal Analysis of Parametric Data

For 36 hours during April 1975, an atmospheric variability experiment was conducted. This research effort supported an observational program in which rawinsonde data, radar data, and satellite data were collected from a network of 42 stations east of the Rocky Mountains at intervals of 3 hours. This program presents data with a high degree of time resolution over a spatially and temporally extensive network. Reduction of the experiment data is intended primarily as a documentation of the checking and processing of the data and should be useful to prospective users. Various flow diagrams of the data processing procedures are described, and a complete summary of the formulas used in the data processing is provided. A wind computation scheme designed to extract as much detailed wind information as possible from the unique experiment data set is discussed. The accuracy of the thermodynamic and wind data were estimated. Errors in the thermodynamic and wind data are given.

Turner, R. E.↗

Two sides of a fault: Grain-scale analysis of pore pressure control on fault slip

Pore fluid pressure in a fault zone can be altered by natural processes (e.g., mineral dehydration and thermal pressurization) and industrial operations involving subsurface fluid injection and extraction for the development of energy and water resources. However, the effect of pore pressure change on the stability and slip motion of a preexisting geologic fault remains poorly understood; yet, it is critical for the assessment of seismic hazard. In this study, we develop a micromechanical model to investigate the effect of pore pressure on fault slip behavior. The model couples fluid flow on the network of pores with mechanical deformation of the skeleton of solid grains. Pore fluid exerts pressure force onto the grains, the motion of which is solved using the discrete element method. We conceptualize the fault zone as a gouge layer sandwiched between two blocks. We study fault stability in the presence of a pressure discontinuity across the gouge layer and compare it with the case of continuous (homogeneous) pore pressure.We focus on the onset of shear failure in the gouge layer and reproduce conditions where the failure plane is parallel to the fault. We show that when the pressure is discontinuous across the fault, the onset of slip occurs on the side with the higher pore pressure, and that this onset is controlled by the maximum pressure on both sides of the fault. In conclusion, the results shed new light on the use of the effective stress principle and the Coulomb failure criterion in evaluating the stability of a complex fault zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Composite entanglement topology and extensional rheology of symmetric ring-linear polymer blends

Extensive molecular simulations are applied to characterize the equilibrium dynamics, entanglement topology, and nonlinear extensional rheology of symmetric ring-linear polymer blends with systematically varied ring fraction ϕR. Chains with degree of entanglement Z≈14 are mixed to produce 10 well-entangled systems with ϕR varying from neat linear to neat ring melts. Z is large enough that except for very large ϕR, the rings are threaded by multiple linear chains in equilibrium. Primitive path analysis is used to visualize and quantify the structure of the composite ring-linear entanglement network. We measure the quantity of ring-linear threading and linear-linear entanglement as a function of ϕR and identify with simple arguments a ring fraction ϕR≈0.4 where the topological constraints of the composite entanglement network are maximized. These topological analyses are used to rationalize the ϕR-dependence of ring and linear chain dynamics, conformations, and rheology. Simulations of startup uniaxial elongation flows demonstrate the extensional stress overshoot observed in recent filament stretching experiments and characterize how it depends on the blend composition and entanglement topology. The overshoot is driven by an overstretching and recoil of ring polymers due to the convective unthreading of rings from linear chains.

O’Connor, Thomas C.↗

Power Prediction of Airborne Wind Energy Systems Using Multivariate Machine Learning

Kites can be used to harvest wind energy at higher altitudes while using only a fraction of the material required for conventional wind turbines. In this work, we present the kite system of Kyushu University and demonstrate how experimental data can be used to train machine learning regression models. The system is designed for 7 kW traction power and comprises an inflatable wing with suspended kite control unit that is either tethered to a fixed ground anchor or to a towing vehicle to produce a controlled relative flow environment. A measurement unit was attached to the kite for data acquisition. To predict the generated tether force, we collected input–output samples from a set of well-designed experimental runs to act as our labeled training data in a supervised machine learning setting. We then identified a set of key input parameters which were found to be consistent with our sensitivity analysis using Pearson input–output correlation metrics. Finally, we designed and tested the accuracy of a neural network, among other multivariate regression models. The quality metrics of our models show great promise in accurately predicting the tether force for new input/feature combinations and potentially guide new designs for optimal power generation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Identifying security checkpoints locations to protect the major U.S. urban areas

Transit networks are integral to the economy and to society, but at the same time they could allow terrorists to transport weapons of mass destruction into any city. Road networks are especially vulnerable, because they lack natural checkpoints unlike air networks that have security measures in place at all major airports. One approach to mitigate this risk is ensuring that every road route passes through at least one security checkpoint. Using the Ford-Fulkerson maximum-flow algorithm, we generate a minimum set of checkpoint locations within a ring-shaped buffer area surrounding the 50 largest US urban areas. We study how the number of checkpoints changes as we increase the buffer width to perform a cost-benefit analysis and to identify groups of cities that behave similarly. The set of required checkpoints is surprisingly small (10-124) despite the hundreds of thousands of road arcs in those areas, making it feasible to protect all major cities.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Knowledge Spillovers and Cost Reductions in Solar Soft Costs

Despite the commonly acknowledged importance of knowledge spillovers in reducing solar soft costs, we are only beginning to answer a fundamental question: who learns what (knowledge acquisition), from whom (knowledge production), and how (spillover mechanisms)? Until recently, this important topic has been largely unexplored in the case of solar soft costs. Thus, this project set out to identify how knowledge spillovers affect soft costs in the U.S. photovoltaic (PV) installation industry, specifically how important spillovers are, what types of knowledge are most likely to spillover, and how networks of actors affect spillovers. Our findings offer insights for designing solutions that address problems associated with knowledge spillovers and that leverage spillovers to reduce solar soft costs. Recognizing the ambiguity in the definition of soft costs, i.e., “non-hardware costs,” and variability in soft cost categories, we developed the Solar Soft Cost Ontology (SSCO) to systematically identify key concepts related to soft costs, network actors, learning processes, and the relationships between them. This ontology served as a foundational organizational structure for the methodology of the remaining tasks: case studies, surveys, pricing analysis, patent analysis, network analysis, and project integration across tasks. While there is substantial learning among installers that is reducing the soft costs for PV installations, most of that learning is retained by firms rather than spread across the industry. The positive relationship between experience accumulation and cost reductions is typically explained as learning by doing (LBD), but we find that LBD effects are mediated by other learning mechanisms, including learning by searching and learning by interacting. Knowledge spillovers have significant potential to reduce solar PV soft costs, but successful knowledge spillover pathways are complex and non-trivial. There are a wide variety of ways to construct an installation business, thus categories of firms that can effectively cross-learn directly are small and what knowledge is relevant to whom is challenging and costly for firms to assess. This fragmentation limits the critical mass needed for spillover related soft cost reductions. Knowledge does not flow directly between installers. Indirect knowledge transfer pathways are critical: distributors, software providers, collaboratives, and hiring. Furthermore, diverse, more integrated knowledge networks tend to promote successful learning by organizations and across the system as a whole. Accordingly, we find the need to supporting the whole ecosystem using an integrated policy and programmatic approach to support installers, distributors, complementary sector, and facilitators. Overall, a deliberate policy-mix design is needed to reduce the solar PV deployment barrier in terms of installation cost reductions, because deployment policies could potentially interact with policies that facilitate network-building and technological innovation. A combination of deployment policies, innovation-support policies, and network-facilitating policies could potentially lead to a more desired market outcome through achieving higher joint learning rates from firms’ cumulative experiences developed in a more integrated production and deployment ecosystem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗