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NASA NTRS2000

Hyper-X Research Vehicle (HXRV) Experimental Aerodynamics Test Program Overview

This paper provides an overview of the experimental aerodynamics test program to ensure mission success for the autonomous flight of the Hyper-X Research Vehicle (HXRV). The HXRV is a 12-ft long, 2700 lb lifting body technology demonstrator designed to flight demonstrate for the first time a fully airframe integrated scramjet propulsion system. Three flights are currently planned, two at Mach 7 and one at Mach 10, beginning in the fall of 2000. The research vehicles will be boosted to the prescribed scramjet engine test point where they will separate from the booster, stabilize. and initiate engine test. Following 5+ seconds of powered flight and 15 seconds of cowl-open tares, the cowl will close and the vehicle will fly a controlled deceleration trajectory which includes numerous control doublets for in-flight aerodynamic parameter identification. This paper reviews the preflight testing activities, wind tunnel models, test rationale. risk reduction activities, and sample results from wind tunnel tests supporting the flight trajectory of the HXRV from hypersonic engine test point through subsonic flight termination.

Holland, Scott D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Hyper-X Research Vehicle (HXRV) Experimental Aerodynamics Test Program Overview

This paper provides an overview of the experimental aerodynamics test program to ensure mission success for the autonomous flight of the Hyper-X Research Vehicle (HXRV). The HXRV is a 12-ft long, 2700 lb lifting body technology demonstrator designed to flight demonstrate for the first time a fully airframe integrated scramjet propulsion system. Three flights are currently planned, two at Mach 7 and one at Mach 10, beginning in the fall of 2000. The research vehicles will be boosted to the prescribed scramjet engine test point where they will separate from the booster, stabilize, and initiate engine test. Following 5+ seconds of powered flight and 15 seconds of cow-open tares, the cowl will close and the vehicle will fly a controlled deceleration trajectory which includes numerous control doublets for in-flight aerodynamic parameter identification. This paper reviews the preflight testing activities, wind tunnel models, test rationale, risk reduction activities, and sample results from wind tunnel tests supporting the flight trajectory of the HXRV from hypersonic engine test point through subsonic flight termination.

Holland, Scott D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Depth Dose Distribution Study within a Phantom Torso after Irradiation with a Simulated Solar Particle Event at NSRL

The adequate knowledge of the radiation environment and the doses incurred during a space mission is essential for estimating an astronaut's health risk. The space radiation environment is complex and variable, and exposures inside the spacecraft and the astronaut's body are compounded by the interactions of the primary particles with the atoms of the structural materials and with the body itself Astronauts' radiation exposures are measured by means of personal dosimetry, but there remains substantial uncertainty associated with the computational extrapolation of skin dose to organ dose, which can lead to over- or underestimation of the health risk. Comparisons of models to data showed that the astronaut's Effective dose (E) can be predicted to within about a +10% accuracy using space radiation transport models for galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and trapped radiation behind shielding. However for solar particle event (SPE) with steep energy spectra and for extra-vehicular activities on the surface of the moon where only tissue shielding is present, transport models predict that there are large differences in model assumptions in projecting organ doses. Therefore experimental verification of SPE induced organ doses may be crucial for the design of lunar missions. In the research experiment "Depth dose distribution study within a phantom torso" at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at BNL, Brookhaven, USA the large 1972 SPE spectrum was simulated using seven different proton energies from 50 up to 450 MeV. A phantom torso constructed of natural bones and realistic distributions of human tissue equivalent materials, which is comparable to the torso of the MATROSHKA phantom currently on the ISS, was equipped with a comprehensive set of thermoluminescence detectors and human cells. The detectors are applied to assess the depth dose distribution and radiation transport codes (e.g. GEANT4) are used to assess the radiation field and interactions of the radiation field with the phantom torso. Lymphocyte cells are strategically embedded at selected locations at the skin and internal organs and are processed after irradiation to assess the effects of shielding on the yield of chromosome damage. The initial focus of the present experiment is to correlate biological results with physical dosimetry measurements in the phantom torso. Further on, the results of the passive dosimetry within the anthropomorphic phantoms represent the best tool to generate reliable data to benchmark computational radiation transport models in a radiation field of interest. The presentation will give first results of the physical dose distribution, the comparison with GEANT4 computer simulations based on a Voxel model of the phantom, and a comparison with the data from the chromosome aberration study.

Berger, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling and Simulation of the ARES UPPER STAGE Transportation, Lifting, Stacking and Mating Operations Within the Vehicle Assembly Building at KSC

This viewgraph presentation describes the modeling and simulation of the Ares Upper Stage Transportation, lifting, stacking, and mating operations within the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). An aerial view of KSC Launch Shuttle Complex, two views of the Delmia process control layout, and an upper stage move subroutine and breakdown are shown. An overhead image of the VAB and the turning basin along with the Pegasus barge at the turning basin are also shown. This viewgraph presentation also shows the actual design and the removal of the mid-section spring tensioners, the removal of the AFT rear and forward tensioners tie downs, and removing the AFT hold down post and mount. US leaving the Pegasus Barge, the upper stage arriving at transfer aisle, upper stage receiving/inspection in transfer aisle, and an overhead view of upper stage receiving/inspection in transfer aisle are depicted. Five views of the actual connection of the cabling to the upper stage aft lifting hardware are shown. The upper stage transporter forward connector, two views of the rotation horizontal to vertical, the disconnection of the rear bolt ring cabling, the lowering of the upper stage to the inspection stand, disconnection of the rear bolt ring from the upper stage, the lifting of the upper stage and inspection of AFT fange, and the transfer of upper stage in an integrated stack are shown. Six views of the mating of the upper stage to the first stage are depicted. The preparation, inspection, and removal of the forward dome are shown. The upper stage mated on the integrated stack and crawler is also shown. This presentation concludes with A Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) utilizing male and female models for assessing risk factors to the upper extremities of human beings in an actual physical environment.

Kromis, Phillip A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitative Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.

Lo, Yunnhon↗
NASA NTRS2015

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

Variability↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Growth of Mass and Reliability Source Database and Me

Mass and Reliability Source (MaRS) is a database which draws together information from multiple other sources and databases (MADS, VMDB, ISS PART, Bayesian PowerPoint, etc.). Information such as mass, operating hours, and failure data are compiled to create a tool for the building of probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models. MaRS also has great potential for deep space mission planning. Understanding the lowest point of failure within an ORU helps to inform the efficient selection of spare parts necessary for a journey where mass and volume are at a premium and resupply is not possible.

George, Cory A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation

Overview of sensors used in EDL instrumentation suites. For spaceflight missions involving atmospheric entry, the environment experienced by a spacecraft cannot be fully replicated on the ground. Taking measurements in the flight environment is the “gold standard” for: Validating predictive modeling tools Reducing risk on future EDL missions EDL Instrumentation can consist of in-situ sensors embedded within the aeroshell, or remote observations. Focus of this presentation is on NASA in-situ sensors.

EDL↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Delay Tolerant Networks: Operational, Evolving, an Ready for Expansion

The future of humanity’s presence beyond Earth depends on the successful commercialization of space. For commercialization to succeed, companies need cost-efficient architectures to support their business models and minimize risks for human capital, design, development, and operations. An ongoing challenge to any space enterprise is the reality that terrestrial network technologies are insufficient to provide reliable communications between assets in space. Whether you need to ensure your valuable data is safely transmitted to the ground or reliably delivered between platforms in orbit, ensuring data integrity over intermittent communication links is a necessity. Current solutions to space communications rely heavily on manual recording, storing, and retrieval of data from spacecraft. The current standard in space communication protocols, Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Space Packet standard, is reliant on inflexible network architectures based around mission-critical infrastructure to ensure data delivery. However, by automating the recording, storing, retrieval, and verification of data with Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN), the operator is freed from the dependence on manual data management and expensive mission critical infrastructure. NASA has been developing delay tolerant systems since the late 1990’s. Multiple DTN implementations have been established during that time, each suited to different use cases. Most notably, the DTN deployment for the International Space Station (ISS) includes demonstration of two DTN technologies: Interplanetary Overlay Network (ION) and Delay Tolerant Network Marshall Enterprise (DTNME). Beyond ISS, there are even more NASA DTN deployments being considered. Now that DTN implementations are maturing, it is appropriate to reflect upon these decades of work, review the integration and performance of the existing ISS deployment, and explore the future possibilities for DTN deployment industry-wide. The ISS DTN deployment is a complex architecture consisting of different DTN implementations for the onboard and ground network environments. The ION DTN implementation is being used in the on-board network. The Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) DTN implementation, DTNME, is used by the ground network supporting ISS and will soon be a second onboard gateway too. The two implementations work cooperatively to provide high fidelity data services to flight operations users and payload developers across the globe. Though the two implementations yield a quality service, limitations are evident. Data rate, data storage, and device management are constrained by the services themselves and the complex nature of the deployment. Evolution of operations concepts will improve system capabilities and stability, but significant improvement will require additional development to the implementations themselves and to the overall deployment architecture. Taking advantage of the ongoing development and operation of the ISS DTN service will be central to the success of the future evolutions of NASA DTN deployments while demonstrating the benefits of DTN’s low-cost reliable data communication protocols for the growing commercial space industry. A broad effort on DTN integration and support is necessary to promote expansion beyond existing applications. NASA is developing several useful DTN implementations across a number of different systems: ION, DTNME, High-Rate DTN (HDTN), Bundle Protocol Library (BPLib), and others. To prevent fragmentation, DTN implementation teams need to communicate, collaborate, and integrate with one another to build a solid operational foundation for new DTN deployments. The establishment of a group that can assist new DTN users with understanding the purpose of each DTN implementation, provide best practices, and serve as a general knowledge base is paramount. Potential use of DTN on Gateway and other future NASA missions further drives the need for streamlined communication between DTN implementation teams. A well-integrated and highly engaged NASA DTN working group should help provide system architects the best DTN solutions for future commercial space efforts. This paper will first review the history of DTN implementations, explore the shortcoming of current space networking solutions given available limits in technology, and therefore establish the need for Delay Tolerant Networking in space communications. Secondly, the authors will explore NASA’s array of DTN implementations and highlight their usefulness to space applications. Thirdly, this paper will establish general DTN implementation distinguishing factors. Fourthly, the authors will discuss attempts to create a generic DTN comparison matrix, and the authors will review potential future topics in DTN innovation and collaboration, highlighting several key future efforts. Finally, this paper will describe how the institution of a NASA DTN Working Group will benefit DTN adoption across the governmental and commercial space sector. The goal of this paper is to encourage enthusiasm for DTN, share strategies for improving DTN on both current and future applications, promote the collaboration of DTN implementation groups within the international space operations community, and open the conversations about DTN, priorities, complexities, and innovation to the wider spaceflight industry.

DTN↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Delay Tolerant Networks: Operational, Evolving, an Ready for Expansion

The future of humanity’s presence beyond Earth depends on the successful commercialization of space. For commercialization to succeed, companies need cost-efficient architectures to support their business models and minimize risks for human capital, design, development, and operations. An ongoing challenge to any space enterprise is the reality that terrestrial network technologies are insufficient to provide reliable communications between assets in space. Whether you need to ensure your valuable data is safely transmitted to the ground or reliably delivered between platforms in orbit, ensuring data integrity over intermittent communication links is a necessity. Current solutions to space communications rely heavily on manual recording, storing, and retrieval of data from spacecraft. The current standard in space communication protocols, Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Space Packet standard, is reliant on inflexible network architectures based around mission-critical infrastructure to ensure data delivery. However, by automating the recording, storing, retrieval, and verification of data with Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN), the operator is freed from the dependence on manual data management and expensive mission critical infrastructure. NASA has been developing delay tolerant systems since the late 1990’s. Multiple DTN implementations have been established during that time, each suited to different use cases. Most notably, the DTN deployment for the International Space Station (ISS) includes demonstration of two DTN technologies: Interplanetary Overlay Network (ION) and Delay Tolerant Network Marshall Enterprise (DTNME). Beyond ISS, there are even more NASA DTN deployments being considered. Now that DTN implementations are maturing, it is appropriate to reflect upon these decades of work, review the integration and performance of the existing ISS deployment, and explore the future possibilities for DTN deployment industry-wide. The ISS DTN deployment is a complex architecture consisting of different DTN implementations for the onboard and ground network environments. The ION DTN implementation is being used in the on-board network. The Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) DTN implementation, DTNME, is used by the ground network supporting ISS and will soon be a second onboard gateway too. The two implementations work cooperatively to provide high fidelity data services to flight operations users and payload developers across the globe. Though the two implementations yield a quality service, limitations are evident. Data rate, data storage, and device management are constrained by the services themselves and the complex nature of the deployment. Evolution of operations concepts will improve system capabilities and stability, but significant improvement will require additional development to the implementations themselves and to the overall deployment architecture. Taking advantage of the ongoing development and operation of the ISS DTN service will be central to the success of the future evolutions of NASA DTN deployments while demonstrating the benefits of DTN’s low-cost reliable data communication protocols for the growing commercial space industry. A broad effort on DTN integration and support is necessary to promote expansion beyond existing applications. NASA is developing several useful DTN implementations across a number of different systems: ION, DTNME, High-Rate DTN (HDTN), Bundle Protocol Library (BPLib), and others. To prevent fragmentation, DTN implementation teams need to communicate, collaborate, and integrate with one another to build a solid operational foundation for new DTN deployments. The establishment of a group that can assist new DTN users with understanding the purpose of each DTN implementation, provide best practices, and serve as a general knowledge base is paramount. Potential use of DTN on Gateway and other future NASA missions further drives the need for streamlined communication between DTN implementation teams. A well-integrated and highly engaged NASA DTN working group should help provide system architects the best DTN solutions for future commercial space efforts. This paper will first review the history of DTN implementations, explore the shortcoming of current space networking solutions given available limits in technology, and therefore establish the need for Delay Tolerant Networking in space communications. Secondly, the authors will explore NASA’s array of DTN implementations and highlight their usefulness to space applications. Thirdly, this paper will establish general DTN implementation distinguishing factors. Fourthly, the authors will discuss attempts to create a generic DTN comparison matrix, and the authors will review potential future topics in DTN innovation and collaboration, highlighting several key future efforts. Finally, this paper will describe how the institution of a NASA DTN Working Group will benefit DTN adoption across the governmental and commercial space sector. The goal of this paper is to encourage enthusiasm for DTN, share strategies for improving DTN on both current and future applications, promote the collaboration of DTN implementation groups within the international space operations community, and open the conversations about DTN, priorities, complexities, and innovation to the wider spaceflight industry.

DTN↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of the NASA Earth Action Strategies Wildland Fire Initiative

As part of NASA’s new Earth Action strategy, the Wildland Fire initiative was established, which includes both the NASA Wildland Fire Program (WFP) and the FireSense project. NASA has over 50 years of experience generating data and technology to enhance fire science and operational management. The WFP’s mission is threefold: 1) assemble communities of practice through collaborative efforts with government, academia, and the private sector; 2) co-develop knowledge and applications with relevant partners and stakeholders in the wildfire community; and 3) improve wildland fire management through the transitioning of NASA data, technology, tools, and science to stakeholder organizations. The WFP is focusing on supporting proactive fire management, including situational awareness, preparedness, and risk mitigation. This will be accomplished through selected projects that identify management challenges, relevant to partners and end users, and the NASA data that will be utilized to deliver innovative solutions to enhance the management of wildland fires. Examples include: i) investigation of evaporative stress from OpenET to help predict the risk of wildfire occurrence in watersheds; ii) incorporation of space based LiDAR for the generation of 3-dimensional forest fuel metrics, used to improve wildfire risk and behavior models; iii) integration of global, multi-platform geostationary active-fire data in near-real-time into NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS); and iv) identification of post-fire ecohydrological conditions using thermal, multispectral, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), and hyperspectral remotely-sensed data to improve flood hazard forecast models. The FireSense project is a US-focused 5-year project that will focus on delivering NASA’s unique Earth science and technological capabilities to operational agencies, striving towards enhancing fire fighting and air quality management. The project will include airborne campaigns and new technology that will likely have global implications. Initial stakeholder engagement led FireSense to focus on four use-cases focused on the characterization and measurement of: (i) pre-fire fuels conditions, (ii) active fire-dynamics; (iii) post-fire impact and threats; and iv) air quality impacts and forecasting, each-developed with identified stakeholders.

Wildland Fire program↗
NASA NTRS2008

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

Fitts, Mary A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Near Earth Asteroid Characterization for Threat Assessment

Physical characteristics of NEAs are an essential input to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry and to assess the risk of impact but determining these properties requires a non-trivial investment of time and resources. The characteristics relevant to these models include size, density, strength and ablation coefficient. Some of these characteristics cannot be directly measured, but rather must be inferred from related measurements of asteroids and/or meteorites. Furthermore, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project at NASA Ames Research Center has developed a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model in order to assess the risk of asteroid impact. Our PAIR model and its use to develop probability distributions of impact risk are discussed in other contributions to PDC 2017 (e.g., Mathias et al.). Here we utilize PAIR to investigate which NEA characteristics are important for assessing the impact threat by investigating how changes in these characteristics alter the damage predicted by PAIR. We will also provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge of the NEA characteristics of importance for asteroid threat assessment. The relative importance of different properties as identified using PAIR will be combined with our assessment of the current state of knowledge to identify potential high impact investigations. In addition, we will discuss an ongoing effort to collate the existing measurements of NEA properties of interest to the planetary defense community into a readily accessible database.

Asteroid characterization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗
NASA NTRS2006

Launch Architecture Impact on Ascent Abort and Crew Survival

A study was performed to assess the effect of booster configuration on the ascent abort process. A generic abort event sequence was created and booster related risk drivers were identified. Three model boosters were considered in light of the risk drivers: a solid rocket motor configuration, a side mount combination solid and liquid configuration, and a stacked liquid configuration. The primary risk drivers included explosive fireball, overpressure, and fragment effects and booster-crew module re-contact. Risk drivers that were not specifically booster dependent were not addressed. The solid rocket configuration had the most benign influence on an abort while the side mount architecture provided the most challenging abort environment.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1980

Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile.

Pocinki, L.↗