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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Direct observations of shock-induced melting in a porous solid using time-resolved x-ray diffraction

Here in this work we provide direct evidence of shock-induced melting and associated kinetics in a porous solid (aluminum powder) using time-resolved x-ray diffraction. Unambiguous evidence of melting in 50% porous aluminum (Al) powder samples, shocked to peak pressures between ~13 - 19 GPa, was provided by the broadening of the Debye-Scherrer ring corresponding to the (111) peak. Shocked Al powder did not melt completely in any of our experiments within the durations of measurement. Incomplete (partial) melting of the powder, even after several hundreds of nanoseconds of shock loading, provides insights into thermal transport with Al powder particles under high-pressure dynamic loading. Such insights are quite valuable for developing well-constrained melting models and thermodynamic equations of state for porous Al and other porous solids relevant to planetary and materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Methodology for Robust Load Reduction in Wind Turbine Blades Using Flow Control Devices

Decades of wind turbine research, development and installation have demonstrated reductions in levelized cost of energy (LCOE) resulting from turbines with larger rotor diameters and increased hub heights. Further reductions in LCOE by up-scaling turbine size can be challenged by practical limitations such as the square-cube law: where the power scales with the square of the blade length and the added mass scales with the volume (the cube). Active blade load control can disrupt this trend, allowing longer blades with less mass. This paper presents the details of the development of a robust load control system to reduce blade fatigue loads. The control system, which we coined sectional lift control or SLC, uses a lift actuator model to emulate an active flow control device. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) Methodology for SLC design to reduce dynamic blade root moments in a neighborhood of the rotor angular frequency (1P). (2) Analysis and numerical evidence supporting the use of a single robust SLC for all wind speeds, without the need for scheduling on wind speed or readily available measurements such as collective pitch or generator angular speed. (3) Intuition and numerical evidence to demonstrate that the SLC and the turbine controller do not interact. (4) Evaluation of the SLC using a full suite of fatigue and turbine performance metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A decreasing carbon allocation to belowground autotrophic respiration in global forest ecosystems

Belowground autotrophic respiration (RAsoil) depends on carbohydrates from photosynthesis flowing to roots and rhizospheres, and is one of the most important but least understood components in forest carbon cycling. Carbon allocation plays an important role in forest carbon cycling and reflects forest adaptation to changing environmental conditions. However, carbon allocation to RAsoil has not been fully examined at the global scale. To fill this knowledge gap, first, the spatio-temporal patterns of RAsoil from 1981 to 2017 were predicted by a Random Forest (RF) algorithm using the most updated Global Soil Respiration Database (v5) with global environmental variables; second, carbon allocation from photosynthesis to RAsoil (CAB), was calculated as the ratio of RAsoil to gross primary production; and its temporal and spatial patterns were assessed in global forest ecosystems. . Globally, mean RAsoil from forests was 8.9 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± standard deviation) from 1981 to 2017 with strong spatial variabilities. Temporally, RAsoil increased at a rate of 0.0059 Pg C yr-2, paralleling broader soil respiration changes and indicating increasing carbon respired by roots. Mean CAB was 0.243 ± 0.016 and decreased over time. The temporal trend of CAB varied greatly in space, reflecting uneven responses of CAB to environmental changes. This study is the first attempt to predict global CAB and analyze its temporal and spatial patterns. With the linkage of carbon use efficiency, the developed CAB offers an completely independent approach to quantify global aboveground autotropic respiration spatially and temporally, which could provide crucial insights into carbon flux partition and global carbon cycling under climate change.

Tang, Xiaolu↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Shear on Deep Convection Initiation. Part II: Simulations

Abstract This study evaluates a hypothesis for the role of vertical wind shear in deep convection initiation (DCI) that was introduced in Part I by examining behavior of a series of numerical simulations. The hypothesis states, “Initial moist updrafts that exceed a width and shear threshold will ‘root’ within a progressively deeper steering current with time, increase their low-level cloud-relative flow and inflow, widen, and subsequently reduce their susceptibility to entrainment-driven dilution, evolving toward a quasi-steady self-sustaining state.” A theoretical model that embodied key elements of the hypothesis was developed in Part I, and the behavior of this model was explored within a multidimensional environmental parameter space. Remarkably similar behavior is evident in the simulations studied here to that of the theoretical model, both in terms of the temporal evolution of DCI and in the sensitivity of DCI to environmental parameters. Notably, both the simulations and theoretical model experience a bifurcation in outcomes, whereby nascent clouds that are narrower than a given initial radius R 0 threshold quickly decay and those above the R 0 threshold undergo DCI. An important assumption in the theoretical model, which states that the cloud-relative flow of the background environment V CR determines cloud radius R , is scrutinized in the simulations. It is shown that storm-induced inflow is small relative to V CR beyond a few kilometers from the updraft edge, and V CR therefore plays a predominant role in transporting conditionally unstable air to the updraft. Thus, the critical role of V CR in determining R is validated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

GIS Visualization of Transportation Energy Consumption

Transportation is witnessing unprecedented transformation, where emerging technologies are disrupting the way we travel. Be it sharing economy, or micro-mobility, the landscape of urban transportation is undergoing a much-needed paradigm shift. In order to capture and model these shifts, researchers need to be agile in their studies of the current and future transportation landscape. The need for agility in turn calls for sophisticated, intuitive, and reliable means to visualize and share transportation data. Travel is inherently spatial, so methods of visualizing transportation information should also be rooted in spatial analysis. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are the premier technological framework to analyze and display spatial data. GIS tools have been used in the past to depict flow of vehicles, and display of network conditions (speed, congestion, etc.). However, in an ever-changing technological landscape, spanning advancements in vehicle as well as information systems, depicting vehicle flows falls short of providing a comprehensive picture of the impact these advancements have on travel related energy consumption. To address this issue, this research effort presents a web-based mapping application to visualize how travel related energy flows across a city. The application is being developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory researchers to integrate various transportation energy consumption models within a GIS schema. This has the goal of enabling rapid analysis of energy impacts of the dramatically evolving transportation environment. The application is being developed using a Python framework for ArcGIS Online. Using road network data from the City of Columbus, Ohio and traffic data from CATT Laboratory's Regional Integrated Transportation Information System, transportation energy consumption will be modeled at a macro level. The application aims to provide highly accurate data while still maintaining the flexibility needed to adapt the model when new technologies arise. The methodology presented through this effort is expected to provide insights into how light-duty vehicles use energy on a large scale based on the road network they use. The application will also provide data exports to enable sharing and collaboration. " need for agility in turn calls for sophisticated, intuitive, and reliable means to visualize and share transportation data. Travel is inherently spatial, so methods of visualizing transportation information should also be rooted in spatial analysis. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are the premier technological framework to analyze and display spatial data. GIS tools have been used in the past to depict flow of vehicles, and display of network conditions (speed, congestion, etc.). However, in an ever-changing technological landscape, spanning advancements in vehicle as well as information systems, depicting vehicle flows falls short of providing a comprehensive picture of the impact these advancements have on travel related energy consumption. To address this issue, this research effort presents a web-based mapping application to visualize how travel related energy flows across a city. The application is being developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory researchers to integrate various transportation energy consumption models within a GIS schema. This has the goal of enabling rapid analysis of energy impacts of the dramatically evolving transportation environment. The application is being developed using a Python framework for ArcGIS Online. Using road network data from the City of Columbus, Ohio and traffic data from CATT Laboratory's Regional Integrated Transportation Information System, transportation energy consumption will be modeled at a macro level. The application aims to provide highly accurate data while still maintaining the flexibility needed to adapt the model when new technologies arise. The methodology presented through this effort is expected to provide insights into how light-duty vehicles use energy on a large scale based on the road network they use. The application will also provide data exports to enable sharing and collaboration.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decision Tree Regression to Identify Representative Road Sections for Evaluating Performance of Connected and Automated Class 8 Tractors

Currently, connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technology is being developed for Class 8 tractor trucks aimed at improved safety and fuel economy and reduced CO2 emissions. Despite extensive efforts conducted across the world, the reported efficiency gains were varied from different research groups, raising concerns about the fidelity of models, the performance of control, and the effectiveness of the experimental validation. One root cause for this variation stems from the fact that the efficiency gain obtained from the CAV is sensitive to real-world conditions, including surrounding traffic and road grade. This study presents an approach aimed at identifying representative public road sections and facilitating CAV research from this perspective. By employing the decision tree regression (DTR) method to the Fleet DNA database, the most representative road sections can be identified. High-level metrics and detailed information of the derived road sections are also illustrated and discussed, which demonstrate their representativeness and the effectiveness of the approach. Meanwhile, the capability of this approach can be easily extended by integrating specific constraints into the DTR algorithm. As an example, a specific representative road section with an aggressive road grade profile was also provided via this approach.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

New Opportunities for Neutrons in Environmental and Biological Sciences

The use of neutron methods in environmental and biological sciences is rapidly emerging and accelerating with the development of new instruments at neutron user facilities. This article, based on a workshop held at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), offers insights into the application of neutron techniques in environmental and biological sciences. Here we highlight recent advances and identify key challenges and potential future research areas. These include soil and rhizosphere processes, root water dynamics, plant-microbe interactions, structure and dynamics of biological systems, applications in synthetic biology and enzyme engineering, next-generation bioproducts, biomaterials and bioenergy, nanoscale structure, and fluid dynamics of porous materials in geochemistry. We provide an outlook on emerging opportunities with an emphasis on new capabilities that will be enabled at the Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station currently under design at ORNL. The mission of scientific neutron user facilities worldwide is to enable science using state-of-the-art neutron capabilities. We aim to encourage researchers in the environmental and biological research community to explore the unique capability afforded by neutrons at these facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards generic memory forensic framework for programmable logic controllers

A Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) is a microprocessor-based controller that is used to automate physical processes in critical infrastructure and various other industries and manufacturing sectors. Initially, PLCs were completely isolated from the Internet, and cyber security was not incorporated at the time of development. The introduction of industry 4.0 and the evolution of ICS systems to communicate over public IP addresses from the Internet enhanced productivity and efficiency, but Internet connectivity exposed the systems and their vulnerabilities, which led to an increase in cyber attacks. When a system is sabotaged/compromised, security analysts need to get to the root cause of the attack as quickly as possible to recover the system. To do so, memory forensic analysis is critical to provide a unique insight into the run-time memory activities and extract a reliable source of evidence. In this paper, we analyze the memory structure of the Schneider Electric Modicon M221 PLC. To build a memory profile, we reverse engineer the communication protocol and conduct differential analysis to gain knowledge about the structure of the memory and the low-level representation of control logic instructions. We then identify dynamic and static memory regions by modifying different project fields and conducting differential analysis, which allows us to identify boundaries of critical memory structures and extract important forensic artifacts that can be found in the memory. The Python implementation of the memory profile can help reduce the time and effort required for manual analysis in case of cyber incident or system failure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Steady-State and Dynamic Mass and Energy Constrained Neural Networks for Distributed Chemical Systems Using Noisy Transient Data

The paper presents the development of algorithms for mass and energy constrained neural network models that can exactly conserve the overall mass and energy of distributed chemical process systems, even though the noisy transient data used for optimal model training violate the same. In contrast to approximately satisfying mass and energy balance constraints of a system by soft penalization of objective function, algorithms have been developed for solving equality-constrained nonlinear optimization problems, thus providing the guarantee of exactly satisfying the system mass and energy conservation laws. For developing dynamic mass-energy constrained network models for distributed systems, hybrid series and parallel dynamic-static neural networks have been leveraged. The developed algorithms for solving both the training and forward problems are validated using both steady-state and dynamic data in the presence of various noise characteristics. The developed data-driven algorithms are flexible to exactly satisfy mass and energy balance constraints for dynamic chemical processes if the system holdup information is available. The proposed network structures and algorithms are applied to the development of data-driven lumped and distributed models of an adiabatic superheater/reheater system, a nonisothermal continuous stirred tank reactor, as well as an electrically heated plug-flow reactor system where one form of energy gets transformed to another. It has been observed that the mass-energy constrained neural networks yield a root mean squared error of <1% with respect to the system truth for the case studies evaluated in this work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Boosting RDataFrame performance with transparent bulk event processing

RDataFrame is ROOT’s high-level interface for Python and C++ data analysis. Since it first became available, RDataFrame adoption has grown steadily and it is now poised to be a major component of analysis software pipelines for LHC Run 3 and beyond. Thanks to its design inspired by declarative programming principles, RDataFrame enables the development of highperformance, highly parallel analyses without requiring expert knowledge of multi-threading and I/O: user logic is expressed in terms of self-contained, small computation kernels tied together by a high-level API. This design completely decouples analysis logic from its actual execution, and opens several interesting avenues for workflow optimization. In particular, in this work we explore the benefits of moving internal data processing from an event-by-event to a bulkby-bulk loop. This refactoring dramatically reduces the framework’s runtime overheads; in collaboration with the I/O layer it improves data access patterns; it exposes information that optimizing compilers might use to auto-vectorize the invocation of user-defined computations; finally, while existing user-facing interfaces remain unaffected, it becomes possible to additionally offer interfaces that explicitly expose bulks of events, useful e.g. for the injection of GPU kernels into the analysis workflow. In order to inform similar future R&D, design challenges will be presented, as well as an investigation of the relevant timememory trade-off backed by novel performance benchmarks.

Guiraud, Enrico↗
DOE OSTI2024

Organ-delimited gene regulatory networks provide high accuracy in candidate transcription factor selection across diverse processes

Organ-specific gene expression datasets that include hundreds to thousands of experiments allow the reconstruction of organ-level gene regulatory networks (GRNs). However, creating such datasets is greatly hampered by the requirements of extensive and tedious manual curation. Here, we trained a supervised classification model that can accurately classify the organ-of-origin for a plant transcriptome. This K-Nearest Neighbor-based multiclass classifier was used to create organ-specific gene expression datasets for the leaf, root, shoot, flower, and seed in Arabidopsis thaliana . A GRN inference approach was used to determine the: i. influential transcription factors (TFs) in each organ and, ii. most influential TFs for specific biological processes in that organ. These genome-wide, organ-delimited GRNs (OD-GRNs), recalled many known regulators of organ development and processes operating in those organs. Importantly, many previously unknown TF regulators were uncovered as potential regulators of these processes. As a proof-of-concept, we focused on experimentally validating the predicted TF regulators of lipid biosynthesis in seeds, an important food and biofuel trait. Of the top 20 predicted TFs, eight are known regulators of seed oil content, e.g., WRI1, LEC1, FUS3. Importantly, we validated our prediction of MybS2, TGA4, SPL12, AGL18, and DiV2 as regulators of seed lipid biosynthesis. We elucidated the molecular mechanism of MybS2 and show that it induces purple acid phosphatase family genes and lipid synthesis genes to enhance seed lipid content. This general approach has the potential to be extended to any species with sufficiently large gene expression datasets to find unique regulators of any trait-of-interest.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the bulk compaction of brittle granular materials, Part II: Representing interparticle comminution by K COMP

An applied and empirical compaction fracture resistance parameter, K COMP , was developed to represent the compression-induced interparticle-comminution response of granular brittle materials (e.g., ceramic or glass particles). The development of K COMP is an outcome from Part I of this three-paper series. The K COMP represents a continuum response of compaction fracture resistance and was adapted from established Griffith linear elastic fracture mechanics theory. From that, the K COMP relates macroscopically applied compressive stress to a corresponding inverse-square-root representative particle size, where the latter is estimated from an entire particle size distribution or specific surface area measurement. In conclusion, the K COMP value was not constant over a wide range of stresses for all examined brittle granular materials, and this is indicative of a change in the dominant mode of permanent deformation at higher compaction stresses.

brittle↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging the Advantages of Additive Manufacturing to Produce Advanced Hybrid Composite Structures for Marine Energy Systems

Many marine energy systems designers and developers are beginning to implement composite materials into the load-bearing structures of their devices, but traditional mold-making costs for composite prototyping are disproportionately high and lead times can be long. Furthermore, established molding techniques for marine energy structures generally require many manufacturing steps, such as secondary bonding and tooling. This research explores the possibilities of additively manufactured internal composite molds and how they can be used to reduce costs and lead times through novel design features and processes for marine energy composite structures. In this approach, not only can the composite mold be additively manufactured but it can also serve as part of the final load-bearing structure. We developed a conceptual design and implemented it to produce a reduced-scale additive/composite tidal turbine blade section to fully demonstrate the manufacturing possibilities. The manufacturing was successful and identified several critical features that could expedite the tidal turbine blade manufacturing process, such as single-piece construction, an integrated shear web, and embedded root fasteners. The hands-on manufacturing also helped identify key areas for continued research to allow for efficient, durable, and low-cost additive/composite-manufactured structures for future marine energy systems.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the TCV tokamak program: Scientific progress and facility upgrades

The TCV tokamak is augmenting its unique historical capabilities (strong shaping, strong electron heating) with ion heating, additional electron heating compatible with high densities, and variable divertor geometry, in a multifaceted upgrade program designed to broaden its operational range without sacrificing its fundamental flexibility. The TCV program is rooted in a three-pronged approach aimed at ITER support, explorations towards DEMO, and fundamental research. A 1 MW, tangential neutral beam injector (NBI) was recently installed and promptly extended the TCV parameter range, with record ion temperatures and toroidal rotation velocities and measurable neutral-beam current drive. ITER-relevant scenario development has received particular attention, with strategies aimed at maximizing performance through optimized discharge trajectories to avoid MHD instabilities, such as peeling-ballooning and neoclassical tearing modes. Experiments on exhaust physics have focused particularly on detachment, a necessary step to a DEMO reactor, in a comprehensive set of conventional and advanced divertor concepts. The specific theoretical prediction of an enhanced radiation region between the two X-points in the low-field-side snowflake-minus configuration was experimentally confirmed. Fundamental investigations of the power decay length in the scrape-off layer (SOL) are progressing rapidly, again in widely varying configurations and in both D and He plasmas; in particular, the double decay length in L-mode limited plasmas was found to be replaced by a single length at high SOL resistivity. Experiments on disruption mitigation by massive gas injection and electron-cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) have begun in earnest, in parallel with studies of runaway electron generation and control, in both stable and disruptive conditions; a quiescent runaway beam carrying the entire electrical current appears to develop in some cases. Developments in plasma control have benefited from progress in individual controller design and have evolved steadily towards controller integration, mostly within an environment supervised by a tokamak profile control simulator. TCV has demonstrated effective wall conditioning with ECRH in He in support of the preparations for JT-60SA operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Urbanization and edge effects interact to drive mutualism breakdown and the rise of unstable pathogenic communities in forest soil

Temperate forests are threatened by urbanization and fragmentation, with over 20% (118,300 km 2 ) of U.S. forest land projected to be subsumed by urban land development. We leveraged a unique, well-characterized urban-to-rural and forest edge-to-interior gradient to identify the combined impact of these two land use changes—urbanization and forest edge creation—on the soil microbial community in native remnant forests. We found evidence of mutualism breakdown between trees and their fungal root mutualists [ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi] with urbanization, where ECM fungi colonized fewer tree roots and had less connectivity in soil microbiome networks in urban forests compared to rural forests. However, urbanization did not reduce the relative abundance of ECM fungi in forest soils; instead, forest edges alone led to strong reductions in ECM fungal abundance. At forest edges, ECM fungi were replaced by plant and animal pathogens, as well as copiotrophic, xenobiotic-degrading, and nitrogen-cycling bacteria, including nitrifiers and denitrifiers. Urbanization and forest edges interacted to generate new “suites” of microbes, with urban interior forests harboring highly homogenized microbiomes, while edge forest microbiomes were more heterogeneous and less stable, showing increased vulnerability to low soil moisture. When scaled to the regional level, we found that forest soils are projected to harbor high abundances of fungal pathogens and denitrifying bacteria, even in rural areas, due to the widespread existence of forest edges. Our results highlight the potential for soil microbiome dysfunction—including increased greenhouse gas production—in temperate forest regions that are subsumed by urban expansion, both now and in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However, for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗