Results for “scenario analysis” — Page 27

DOE OSTI2024

Parking Strategies and Outcomes for Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operations

Parking spots are a premium commodity, especially in dense downtown settings, so this study examines the service impacts of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) parking in legal on- or off-street locations when idle across Travis County in Austin, Texas. Here, using an agent-based activity-based travel demand model with dynamic traffic simulation, two restricted-parking strategies for SAVs were simulated. SAVs either found the nearest available parking spot or the lowest-cost spot (via a tradeoff of parking fees and distance-based costs). Two comparisons were conducted to analyze the impacts of these strategies. First, two restricted parking strategies were compared, where SAVs park without competition with private human-driven vehicles (HVs) for parking locations. Second, a more realistic analysis compared two SAV parking strategies with a scenario where SAVs remain idle in place. Private HVs in all scenarios and strategies of this comparison park at the closest designated location unless they opt for private parking. Using a supply of 8,400 aggregated parking locations in Austin, this study simulated fleet performance under different trip demands, with SAV fares of $\$0.62$ per kilometer ($\$1$ per mile) plus a $\$1$ fixed pickup fee with dynamic ridesharing permitted. Parking costs were negligible in both SAV parking search strategies applied to the Austin network because of the region’s provision of mostly free parking. Requiring SAVs to park on designated on- and off-street parking locations and parking lots (restricted parking) also increased parking costs for HV drivers by up to 22% since SAVs occupied some free parking spaces, especially in the least-cost parking search strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Contingency Analysis in Power Systems via Network Trigger Nodes

Modeling failure dynamics within a power system is a complex and challenging process due to multiple inter-dependencies and convoluted inter-domain relationships. Subject matter experts (SMEs) are interested in understanding these failure dynamics for reducing the impact from future disasters (i.e., losses or failures of power system components, such as transmission lines). Contingency analysis (CA) tools enable such ’what-if’ scenario analyses to evaluate the impacts on the power system. Analyzing all possible contingencies among N system components can be computationally expensive. An important step for performing CA is identifying a set of k ‘trigger’ components, which when failed initially can significantly impact the overall system by causing multiple failures. Currently SMEs focus on identifying these trigger components by running expensive simulations on all possible subsets, which quickly becomes infeasible. Hence finding a relevant set of trigger components (contingencies) rapidly to enable efficient and useful CA is crucial.In a collaboration between computer scientists and power system experts, we propose an efficient method for performing CA by exploiting network inter-dependencies in power system components. First, we construct a network with multiple electric grid infrastructure components and dependencies as connections among them. We reformulate the problem of finding a set of trigger components as a problem of identifying critical nodes in the network, which can cascade power failures through connected nodes and cause significant damage to the network. To guide the practical CA tools, we develop a network-based model with a probabilistic edge-weights setup using intricate domain rules. Then we conduct an empirical study on real power system data in the US for both regional and national levels. Firstly, we use power system datasets for the US to create a national-scale domain-driven model. Secondly, we demonstrate that network-based model outperforms the outputs from a real CA tool and show on average 25 × improved selection of contingencies, thereby showcasing practical benefits to the power experts.

Tabassum, Anika↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Spatial Distribution Impacts of Rooftops Solar PV on Dynamic Hosting Capacity Evaluation for a Real Distribution Feeder

This paper models the sensitivity of dynamic hosting capacity analysis to the spatial distribution of distributed PV scenarios, random, close and far from substation deployments, at various penetration levels on a real distribution feeder, in a quasi-static time series (QSTS) power flow simulation using high resolution time-aware metrics. These spatial distribution scenarios were chosen to capture a wide range of potential operation impacts of these deployments using a set of thermaland voltage-based metrics such as instantaneous violations and moving averages for both thermal and voltage constraints. This study uses actual load and PV data up-scaled from 1-hour time step to 1-minute resolution to fully characterize the interaction between the daily changes in load and PV output, and their impacts on distribution system operations.

distribution system↗

DOE OSTI2021

Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB)

The Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) has been developed as an integral part of Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model to analyze greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use change (LUC) and land management change (LMC) in the context of overall biofuel life-cycle analysis (LCA). CCLUB relies on i) biofuel production scenarios, ii) LUC and LMC scenarios, and iii) emission factors (EF) to generate GHG emissions of LUC and LMC for biofuel production in gram carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per MJ of fuel produced. Figure 1 outlines the calculations and data sources within CCLUB that are described in this document and Table 1 identifies where these data are stored and used within CCLUB, which is built in Microsoft Excel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Simulation of Xe-100-type Pebble Bed Gas-Cooled Reactor with SCALE

The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactor concepts. Awardees of ARDP funds are expected to demonstrate the operation of an advanced reactor within 7 years of receiving the award. X-Energy’s advanced reactor concept, the Xe-100, was selected as one of two advanced reactor concepts to receive funding to demonstrate the operation of its high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor before the end of this decade. As a result of this push to bring advanced reactors to maturation and commercialization, transition and deployment scenario studies are being performed under the Systems Analysis and Integration (SA&I) campaign within the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to evaluate the transition of the current US commercial fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs) to a future fleet of advanced reactors consisting of a mix of ARDP type reactor concepts and advanced LWRs. To accurately evaluate the front- and back-end resource requirements, it is important to perform reactor physics calculations to determine the discharge burnup and isotopic content, fuel residence time, as well as other parameters. For this purpose, a summer project funded by the SA&I campaign allowed for the setup of SCALE models for full-core Xe-100 type high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor and a Xe-100 type slice using publicly available information. The core-averaged equilibrium compositions and zone-wise equilibrium compositions for the slice and 3D models, respectively, were obtained following an iterative depletion method developed by Bostelmann et al. using SCALE’s reactor physics sequence TRITON. The slice model was used with TRITON to generate burnup-dependent cross section libraries at different temperatures which can be used with SCALE’s ORIGAMI code to rapidly determine fuel inventory and therefore to perform quick sensitivity studies on parameters such as the pebble location in the core. The SCALE/TRITON transport and depletion calculation for the Xe-100 type slice model indicates that the isotopic concentrations are in good agreement at 1,300 effective full power days (EFPD) for 235 U. An analysis of 236 U results match 239 Pu results would seem to indicate a typographical error in Mulder and Boyes wherein the reported results of 236 U and 239 Pu are reversed. In addition to SCALE/TRITON calculations, a new capability within SCALE/ORIGAMI for the simulation of pebble-bed reactors was used to study the burnup sensitivity with respect to the pebble pathway through the core. The SCALE/ORIGAMI results show that pebbles that travel closer to the reflector for the entire depletion history have a higher burnup than pebbles that travel through the middle of the core because of the higher thermal to fast flux ratio near the reflector. Consequently, a pebble’s burnup is strongly affected by the pebble’s pathway for each pass. Additional phenomena such as temperature distributions in the core and different travel times of the pebbles in the individual radial zones further affect the burnup distribution. The sensitivity of the discharge vector to the pebble pathways taken during each pass can be evaluated in the future using SCALE/ORIGAMI now that the SCALE inputs have been established.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Conceptual Design of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System for the Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR)

Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) is being designed by a multi-disciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed HC-HTGR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe, low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is responsible for the design and analysis of the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) as a safety system for passive decay heat removal of the reactor concept. This report documents the design study to derive a conceptual design study of the RCCS for the HC-HTGR. It includes the identification of the functions and requirements of the HC-HTGR RCCS, design analyses including high-level design consideration and the calculations for optimizing design space of the system with supporting component-level analysis to inform the material selection and performance of the water panel, the description of the conceptual design of the HC-HTGR RCCS derived based on the analyses results, and performance evaluation of the conceptual RCCS for the HC-HTGR. A detailed concept of the RCCS has been identified and high-level system requirements has been developed for the HC-HTGR. Design space focusing on the natural circulation loop portion of the RCCS has been investigated to optimize the system performance. The initial baseline dimensions were firstly derived based on the scoping calculations. A component level design analysis was conducted for the water panel to inform the material selection and to assess its conduction performance. A preliminary system-level performance analysis was performed for the 1/8th of the compartment of the initial baseline design of the RCCS using RELAP5-3D. To improve the system thermal performance, the RCCS design has been updated by exploring various design options by design parametric analyses. Based on the results, the conceptual design of the RCCS for the HC-HTGR has been derived, which satisfies the target performance of ~1 MWt at the elevated vessel wall temperature conditions. Transient simulations were conducted for the conceptual RCCS design for the HC-HTGR under various operation modes and heat load conditions using RELAP5-3D. The system dynamics in different operating states was investigated and the system performance under transients of interest was evaluated. The results demonstrated the overall system feasibility that the RCCS design maintains structures temperatures lower than maximum allowable temperature with sufficient system inventory without any active heat removal in the design process with certain transients addressed. The HC-HTGR RCCS will have additional design updates of subsystems or optimization of the system components during the preliminary and final design phases. Since the entire plant has not been integrated yet, this delivered conceptual design is subject to changes for integration, that require additional conceptual design activities and Quality and Assurance implementation (Q&A). The performance assessment of the RCCS for the HC-HTGR will be then revisited and optimized to finalize the system design, and the RCCS integrated primary system analysis will be utilized to simulate selective accident scenarios of interest where efforts are currently undergoing in the project.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model Development for the ACME Lab Modular Wall and A-Frame Assemblies

The structural frame used for conducting large structural tests was replaced by the ACME (Applied Combined Mechanical Environments) Lab in Building 860 of Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, NM. This new design required simulation and analysis to verify maximum loads and corresponding factors of safety. Two major assemblies which are part of the ACME Lab, the Modular Wall and A-Frame, were designed to operate with a multitude of components in various configurations and with varying loads. Simulations of the Modular Wall and A-Frame structures were performed through explicit analysis to determine safety factors for numerous loading scenarios. The Modular Wall had safety factors of 1.1 for the lateral, diagonal, and gusset loading conditions. The A-Frame had safety factors of 2 for all loading conditions simulated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Magnesium production by molten salt electrolysis with liquid tin cathode and multiple effect distillation

Low-cost clean primary production of magnesium metal is important for its use in many applications, from light-weight structural components to energy technologies. This work describes new experiments and cost and emissions analysis for a magnesium metal production process. The process combines molten salt electrolysis of MgO using MgF₂-CaF₂ electrolyte and a reactive liquid tin cathode, with gravity-driven multiple effect thermal system (G-METS) distillation to separate out the magnesium product, and re-use of the tin. Electrolysis experiments with carbon anodes showed current yield above 90%, while a yttria-stabilized zirconia solid oxide membrane (SOM) anode experiment showed 84% current yield. G-METS distillation is an important component of the envisioned process. It can potentially lower costs and energy use considerably compared with conventional magnesium distillation. Techno-economic analysis including detailed mass and energy balances shows that this electrolyte composition could lower costs by utilizing CaO, which is the primary impurity in MgO, as the Hall-Héroult process uses the sodium impurity in alumina. Analysis options include: raw material types (magnesite rock vs. brine or seawater), drying and calcining using electricity vs. natural gas, and carbon vs. SOM anode type. Using SOM inert anodes results in a cost premium around 10%–15%, mostly due to higher electrical energy usage resulting from membrane resistance, and reduces GHG emissions by approximately 1 kg CO₂/kg Mg product. Capital and operating cost estimates, and cradle to gate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis under several raw material and process technology scenarios, show comparable costs and emissions to those of aluminum production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Protein carbamylation and proteomics: from artifacts to elucidation of biological functions

Lysine carbamylation is a non-enzymatic protein post-translational modification (PTM) that plays important roles in regulating enzymatic activity and the pathogenesis of diseases such as atherosclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, and uremia. The progress of understanding the roles of carbamylation in biological systems has been delayed due to lack of systematic assays to study its functions. To aggravate this scenario, carbamylation is a major artifact in proteomics analysis given that urea, which is used during sample preparation, induces carbamylation. In addition, anti-acetyllysine antibodies co-purify carbamylated and acetylated peptides. In a recent paper, we leveraged co-purification with anti-acetyllysine antibodies to develop a method for analyzing carbamylated proteomes. In this perspective article, we discuss how this method may be applied to characterize the physiological functions of carbamylation in humans and other biological models, as well as the utility of establishing novel disease biomarkers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Power and Natural Gas Systems Interface Study

Power systems worldwide are becoming more reliant on energy from natural gas, wind, and solar, posing potential reliability and coordination challenges from the tighter coupling of these infrastructure systems. This paper proposes a framework for the market-based coordination of electricity and natural gas system operations. The proposed framework includes a power system model that accounts for flexibility in the commitment of power plants with short start-up and shut-down times, coupled with a dynamic gas model that simulates when gas cannot be delivered to generators. The capabilities of the framework are illustrated using real-world electric power and gas systems, including scenarios around wind and solar penetrations and the analysis of time-variant, “shaped flow” gas nominations. Our results indicate that coordination between power and gas systems improves total gas delivery and reduces out-of-merit order dispatch in the electricity system, and that shaped flows may reduce unserved gas in systems with high penetrations of wind and solar.

coordinated operation↗

DOE OSTI2024

METHOD FOR EXPOSING IRRADIATED FUEL CLADDING TO RAPID THERMAL TRANSIENTS

Reactor core materials exposed to rapid thermal transients during accidents can experience significant changes in mechanical properties as irradiation hardness is recovered. Understanding material performance during transients using computer modeling requires accurate descriptions of mechanical property evolution with time and temperature. A simple experimental capability was developed to expose irradiated Zircaloy to a simulated thermal transient using immersion in molten tin (at 675°C) to rapidly heat and hold before rapidly cooling with a water quench. Multiple heating-cooling cycles using a nonirradiated tensile specimen showed simplicity and viability. Based on preliminary test results, a robust system was established for routine evaluation of simulated thermal accident scenarios in the Low Activation Materials Design and Analysis (LAMDA) laboratory at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This paper summarizes system development and nonirradiated Zircaloy commissioning test results. Future experiments will conduct tensile tests on irradiated Zircaloy after various rapid temperature profiles.

Byun, TS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Safety Analysis for a 400-kW Molten Salt Nuclear Battery

The Molten Salt Nuclear battery (MsNB) is a microreactor based on technology developed and operated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the 1960s [1]. But the MsNB has been simplified by removing pumps and valves for improved reliability and safety. The MsNB can safely provide up to 10 MWe of power for up to 10 years and potentially it can be transported by air, truck, and rail thanks due to to its small footprint. A computer model has been developed to represent a prototypical 400-kW MsNB using the ANL system code SAM [2]. The model has been used to produce a reactor thermal-hydraulic performance map and perform analysis of unprotected loss of heat sink accident scenario.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The phase diagram of ultra quantum liquids

In this paper, we discuss the dependence of the phase diagram of a hypothetical isotope of helium with nuclear mass less than 4 atomic mass units. We argue that with decreasing nucleus mass, the temperature of the superfluid phase transition (about 2.2 K in real 4 He) increases, while that of the liquid-gas critical point (about 5.2 K in real 4 He) decreases. We discuss various scenarios that may occur when the two temperatures approach each other and the order parameters of the superfluid and the liquid-gas phase transitions interact with each other. The simplest scenario, in which both order parameters become critical at particular values of the nuclear mass, temperature, and pressure, can be ruled out through on an analysis of the Landau theory. We argue that in the most likely scenario, as the nuclear mass decreases, first, a tricritical point appears on the line separating the superfluid and the normal fluid phase, then the critical point disappears under the first-order part of superfluid phase transition line, and in the end the tricritical point disappears. The last change in the phase diagram occurs when the two-body scattering length crosses zero, which corresponds to the nuclear mass of about 1.55 u. We develop a quantitative theory that allows one to determine the phase diagram in the vicinity of this point. Lastly, we discuss several ways to physically realize such liquids.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parameter estimation for X-ray scattering analysis with Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Bayesian-inference-based approaches, in particular the random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, have received much attention recently for X-ray scattering analysis. Hamiltonian MCMC, a state-of-the-art development in the field of MCMC, has become popular in recent years. It utilizes Hamiltonian dynamics for indirect but much more efficient drawings of the model parameters. We described the principle of the Hamiltonian MCMC for inversion problems in X-ray scattering analysis by estimating high-dimensional models for several motivating scenarios in small-angle X-ray scattering, reflectivity, and X-ray fluorescence holography. Hamiltonian MCMC with appropriate preconditioning can deliver superior performance over the random-walk MCMC, and thus can be used as an efficient tool for the statistical analysis of the parameter distributions, as well as model predictions and confidence analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. We present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multisectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions.

Decarbonization, tranportation, Electric vehicle c↗