Results for “stochastic processes” — Page 27

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Study of Oxidative Etch Pitting in FiberForm and the Effect on Its Material Properties

Erosion of carbon due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface, and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective and increase their reactivity, thus leading to the localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defective sites serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits with potentially detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, a commonly used base material within many thermal protection system materials (TPS). The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography experiments is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported within the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as elasticity, thermal conductivity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties as a result of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to etch pit formation is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of shrinking fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures; and significant differences are observed. Thus, such a physically realistic modeling of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to etch pit growth. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

Carbon Ablators↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Study of Oxidative Etch Pitting in FiberForm and the Effect on Its Material Properties

Erosion of carbon due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface, and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective and increase their reactivity, thus leading to the localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defective sites serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits with potentially detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, a commonly used base material within many thermal protection system materials (TPS). The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography experiments is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported within the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as elasticity, thermal conductivity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties as a result of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to etch pit formation is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of shrinking fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures; and significant differences are observed. Thus, such a physically realistic modeling of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to etch pit growth. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

Carbon Ablators↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation of Oxidative Etch Pit Formation and Growth on FiberForm

Erosion of carbon surfaces due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are the first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective, and increasing their reactivity, thus leading to localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defects serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits, with detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in the presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, the precursor substrate of the PICA Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography scans is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported into the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as thermal conductivity, elasticity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties because of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to the formation of etch pits is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of uniform radial shrinking of fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures, and significant differences are observed. Thus, a physically realistic model of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to the growth of etch pits. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

DSMC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation of Oxidative Etch Pit Formation and Growth on FiberForm

Erosion of carbon surfaces due to oxidation does not occur uniformly but through the formation of localized etch pits because of active surface sites. These active sites are formed due to the presence of atomic defects on the carbon surface and have much higher reactivity compared to average non-defective sites. Thus, these active sites are the first to react during ablation, resulting in their removal. This causes all the neighboring atoms to be defective, and increasing their reactivity, thus leading to localized carbon removal around these “active” sites. In this manner, these highly reactive defects serve as nucleation sites for the formation and growth of etch pits, with detrimental effects on the structural integrity. In order to understand the influence of these etch pits on the material properties of carbon fiber microstructures, we have developed a new capability within direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) to capture the etch pit formation process. This capability is developed within the DSMC code SPARTA (Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer) and can model the material removal in the presence of active sites leading to the formation of etch pits. The focus of the current work will be to study the effect of etch pits on the material properties of FiberForm, the precursor substrate of the PICA Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The microstructure of virgin FiberForm obtained directly from X-ray microtomography scans is used within SPARTA to obtain the ablated geometries with etch pits. These pitted microstructures are then imported into the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software and various material properties such as thermal conductivity, elasticity, and permeability are computed. The variation of these properties because of the complex evolution of the surface topology due to the formation of etch pits is studied and analyzed. Furthermore, the effect of pitting is compared to the case of uniform radial shrinking of fibers, which has been the standard for modelling ablation of carbon structures, and significant differences are observed. Thus, a physically realistic model of material removal through the formation of etch pits will be helpful in predicting the degradation of carbon-based TPS more accurately during oxidation; as well as other mechanisms such as spallation, which involves the removal of chunks of material into the flow due to the growth of etch pits. This will ultimately improve our understanding of the failure modes in these materials due to ablation.

DSMC↗

NASA NTRS1987

Stochastic acceleration of electrons in solar flares

The generation of lower-hybrid waves by cross-field currents is applied to reconnection processes proposed for solar flares. Recent observations on fragmentation of energy release and acceleration, and on hard X-ray (HXR) spectra are taken into account to develop a model for electron acceleration by resonant stochastic interactions with lower-hybrid turbulence. The continuity of the velocity distribution is solved including collisions and escape from the turbulence region. It describes acceleration as a diffusion process in velocity space. The result indicates two regimes that are determined by the energy of the accelerating electrons which may explain the double power-law often observed in HXR spectra. The model further predicts an anticorrelation between HXR flux and spectral index in agreement with observations.

Benz, A. O.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2014

Improving Sensorimotor Function and Adaptation using Stochastic Vestibular Stimulation

Astronauts experience sensorimotor changes during adaption to G-transitions that occur when entering and exiting microgravity. Post space flight, these sensorimotor disturbances can include postural and gait instability, visual performance changes, manual control disruptions, spatial disorientation, and motion sickness, all of which can hinder the operational capabilities of the astronauts. Crewmember safety would be significantly increased if sensorimotor changes brought on by gravitational changes could be mitigated and adaptation could be facilitated. The goal of this research is to investigate and develop the use of electrical stochastic vestibular stimulation (SVS) as a countermeasure to augment sensorimotor function and facilitate adaptation. For this project, SVS will be applied via electrodes on the mastoid processes at imperceptible amplitude levels. We hypothesize that SVS will improve sensorimotor performance through the phenomena of stochastic resonance, which occurs when the response of a nonlinear system to a weak input signal is optimized by the application of a particular nonzero level of noise. In line with the theory of stochastic resonance, a specific optimal level of SVS will be found and tested for each subject [1]. Three experiments are planned to investigate the use of SVS in sensory-dependent tasks and performance. The first experiment will aim to demonstrate stochastic resonance in the vestibular system through perception based motion recognition thresholds obtained using a 6-degree of freedom Stewart platform in the Jenks Vestibular Laboratory at Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary. A range of SVS amplitudes will be applied to each subject and the subjectspecific optimal SVS level will be identified as that which results in the lowest motion recognition threshold, through previously established, well developed methods [2,3,4]. The second experiment will investigate the use of optimal SVS in facilitating sensorimotor adaptation to system disturbances. Subjects will adapt to wearing minifying glasses, resulting in decreased vestibular ocular reflex (VOR) gain. The VOR gain will then be intermittently measured while the subject readapts to normal vision, with and without optimal SVS. We expect that optimal SVS will cause a steepening of the adaptation curve. The third experiment will test the use of optimal SVS in an operationally relevant aerospace task, using the tilt translation sled at NASA Johnson Space Center, a test platform capable of recreating the tilt-gain and tilt-translation illusions associated with landing of a spacecraft post-space flight. In this experiment, a perception based manual control measure will be used to compare performance with and without optimal SVS. We expect performance to improve in this task when optimal SVS is applied. The ultimate goal of this work is to systematically investigate and further understand the potential benefits of stochastic vestibular stimulation in the context of human space flight so that it may be used in the future as a component of a comprehensive countermeasure plan for adaptation to G-transitions.

Galvan, R. C.↗

DOE OSTI2026

On the formation of swelling and related flaws in laser powder bed fusion

Process monitoring in laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing can provide insights into stochastic anomalies, melt pool and plume dynamics, and part quality. Swelling, a build anomaly where overbuilt material protrudes through the powder layer after recoating, is readily detectable in post-recoat visible light images of the powder bed. Here, this work identifies several of the underlying mechanisms driving swelling formation by analyzing the influence of processing parameters, laser scan paths, and build plate locations on the presence of swelling detected in situ. Swelling near the edge of the part and swelling in the internal region of the part are shown to correlate with different process conditions. Edge and internal swelling may be driven by different phenomena, with edge swelling predominately occurring on the edge of a part facing the laser module and correlated to clusters of near-surface voids (detected with X-ray computed tomography). A larger spot size, higher laser power, and lower scan velocity also increased the presence of edge swelling. Laser spot size and scan path influenced internal swelling, which occurred preferentially with a larger spot size and in regions with large melt pools, caused by localized heat accumulation due to non-optimal processing parameters or scan path strategies. For coupons processed with a slicer-defined maximum scan vector length, swelling seldom occurred at internal vector-stripe boundaries. These results provide a mechanistic understanding of how swelling can be linked to material flaws, insight into how some instances of swelling can be avoided, and evidence supporting the use of swelling as an in situ indicator for quality assurance and part qualification.

Anomaly↗

NASA NTRS1992

Stochastic stellar wind models - Evolved stars

Observational, semiempirical, and theoretical results are presented for individual cool giants and supergiants which show that stochastic stellar wind flows are an extremely important feature in these stars. It is shown that the status of the existing theoretical models is very uncertain, due to the fact that appropriate models must simultaneously take into account a broad variety of strongly coupled physical processes. The potentially important physical processes include global oscillation modes; convection; magnetic fields; the generation, propagation, and interaction of stochastic waves; three-dimensional radiative transfer effects; time-dependent hydrogen ionization; thermal bifurcation and instabilities; and nonequilibrium chemistry, particularly the formation and destruction of molecules and dust.

Cuntz, Manfred↗

NASA NTRS1995

Stochastic charging of dust grains in planetary rings: Diffusion rates and their effects on Lorentz resonances

Dust grains in planetary rings acquire stochastically fluctuating electric charges as they orbit through any corotating magnetospheric plasma. Here we investigate the nature of this stochastic charging and calculate its effect on the Lorentz resonance (LR). First we model grain charging as a Markov process, where the transition probabilities are identified as the ensemble-averaged charging fluxes due to plasma pickup and photoemission. We determine the distribution function P(t;N), giving the probability that a grain has N excess charges at time t. The autocorrelation function tau(sub q) for the strochastic charge process can be approximated by a Fokker-Planck treatment of the evolution equations for P(t; N). We calculate the mean square response to the stochastic fluctuations in the Lorentz force. We find that transport in phase space is very small compared to the resonant increase in amplitudes due to the mean charge, over the timescale that the oscillator is resonantly pumped up. Therefore the stochastic charge variations cannot break the resonant interaction; locally, the Lorentz resonance is a robust mechanism for the shaping of etheral dust ring systems. Slightly stronger bounds on plasma parameters are required when we consider the longer transit times between Lorentz resonances.

Schaffer, L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Limits on the isolation of stochastic vibration for microgravity space experiments

The limitations on the isolation of stochastic vibrations for microgravity space experiments are explored. These limitations result from the restricted interior space available for vibration isolation. A one-degree-of-freedom representation of the experiment-spacecraft system is used, and an ideal vibration actuator is assumed. A kinematic representation results, and the problem becomes one of finding the minimum acceleration trajectory within a pair of stochastic walls. The wall motion is characterized by an ergodic, stationary, zero-mean, Gaussian random process with known power spectral density. The geometry of the wall trajectories is defined in terms of their significant extrema and zero crossings. This geomemtry is used in defining a composite trajectory that has a mean square acceleratiaon lower than that on the optimal path satisfying the stochastic wall inequality constraints. The optimal control problem is solved on a return path yielding the mean square acceleration in terms of the distributions of significant maxima and first-passage time of the wall process. The methodology is applied to a microgravity isolation problem to find the lower bounds on root-mean-square acceleration given the disturbance power spectral density.

Knospe, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS1966

On the status of optimal control and stability for stochastic systems.

Optimal control and stability for stochastic systems, viewing linear diffusion models based upon Gaussian-Markov process as finite dimensional linear system driven by white noise

SYSTEM STABILITY↗

NASA NTRS1975

Parameter adaptive estimation of random processes

This paper is concerned with the parameter adaptive least squares estimation of random processes. The main result is a general representation theorem for the conditional expectation of a random variable on a product probability space. Using this theorem along with the general likelihood ratio expression, the least squares estimate of the process is found in terms of the parameter conditioned estimates. The stochastic differential for the a posteriori probability and the stochastic differential equation for the a posteriori density are found by using simple stochastic calculus on the representations obtained. The results are specialized to the case when the parameter has a discrete distribution. The results can be used to construct an implementable recursive estimator for certain types of nonlinear filtering problems. This is illustrated by some simple examples.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Dynamical constraints on the formation and evolution of planetary bodies

The present investigation is concerned with a number of inferences as to the origin of planetary bodies, taking into account the present dynamical state of the solar system and some of the limitations which apply to the considered conclusions. Attention is given to the dynamical processes, specifically those processes which may have influenced the orbital or rotational properties of the planets and satellites. Collisional processes are explored, taking into consideration orbital spacing, planetary rotation, and stochastic effects. In connection with a discussion of the evolution of rotational motion, spin state evolution is investigated along with spin axis precession and resonance variation, and the Cassini states. The evolution of planetary orbits is also studied. The subjects considered are related to tides, secular resonances, disk dynamics, and disk-satellite interactions.

Harris, A. W.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Composite Loads Spectra for Select Space Propulsion Structural Components: Probabilistic Load Model Development

This effort is in support of the development of the expert system of computer codes to predict the loads on select structural components of a space propulsion engine. The development will be based primarily on the space shuttle main engine (SSME) test data base. Because of random variations of the many different sources of the loadings on the selected structural components and transients, a probabilistic approach to the problems was adopted. The goal of this task is to characterize all of the individual sources of loads at critical structural locations, such as the turbine blades, the transfer ducts, and liquid oxygen posts, using state-of-the-art probabilistic methods with varying levels of sophistication. The second phase of this work is the development of a composite load model based on a probabilistic synthesis of the individual load model previously developed. This model will be based on the stochastic combination of the load variables and not on the physical process for the combination of the individual loads to the composite load seen by the selected structural components.

Kurth, R.↗

NASA NTRS1987

VLA observations of rapid 6 cm flux variations in alpha Ori

The red supergiant star alpha Ori was monitored with the Very Large Array (VLA). Thirteen observations at 6 cm show stochastic variations, at the 30 to 40 percent level, with no long term trend. All data was clipped and tapered in AIPS to minimize differences between VLA arrays. The calibration source varied by less than 10 percent over the same interval. The VLA observations of alpha Ori were continued, as well as alpha Her and alpha Sco, at both 2 and 6 cm, to confirm this result and search for long term trends. The stochastic 6 cm flux behavior, with 30 to 40 percent changes on all timescales from the shortest interval of 10 days to the longest, seems at odds with the 400 day periodic variations in U-band photometry and Mg II UV fluxes reported by Dupree, et al. The observed 6 cm flux was 25 percent below the 6 cm flux reported earlier this decade. Several models for the outer atmosphere of alpha Ori place the 6 cm optical depth unity location at several stellar radii above the optical photosphere. The rapid, stochastic variations reported are difficult to reconcile with almost any global process, such as pulsation, Alfven waves or periastron passage.

Bookbinder, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimation and filtering for high-precision GPS positioning applications

Estimation of GPS satellite orbits and other parameters for high-accuracy geodetic and tracking applications is carried out with a multi-satellite batch sequential pseudo-epoch state process noise filter. Both square-root information filtering and UD factorized covariance filtering and smoothing formulations are implemented in the software to enhance numerical stability. The filtering algorithms have been arranged to take advantage of sparse matrices and other characteristics of the GPS measurement scenarios. The filter includes unique error evaluation capabilities to assess effects from mismodeling. Process noise plays a key role in the orbit determination for stochastic behavior of transmitter/receiver clocks, atmospheric-induced delay fluctuations, and unmodeled spacecraft accelerations. Present GPS orbit accuracy is better than 1 m, with ground baselines determined simultaneously to relative accuracy of 1.5 parts in 10 to the 8th over several thousand km distance.

Lichten, Stephen M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Stochastic Models of Human Errors

Humans play an important role in the overall reliability of engineering systems. More often accidents and systems failure are traced to human errors. Therefore, in order to have meaningful system risk analysis, the reliability of the human element must be taken into consideration. Describing the human error process by mathematical models is a key to analyzing contributing factors. Therefore, the objective of this research effort is to establish stochastic models substantiated by sound theoretic foundation to address the occurrence of human errors in the processing of the space shuttle.

Elshamy, Maged↗