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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 487 records · Page 27

Validation of LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM Statistically Downscaled Products

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is the preeminent national report examining current and future risks posed by climate change. Countless agencies, policymakers, stakeholders and other end-users rely upon guidance from the NCA to plan for an uncertain future. These groups all depend on modern curated data, provided alongside the NCA, to quantify the impact of climate change on metrics of relevance for their decision processes. In its fifth iteration (NCA5), two statistically downscaled ensemble products, each providing data at grid spacing of approximately 5km over the contiguous United States, were selected to accompany the report. These include LOCalized Analogs version 2 (LOCA2) and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical-Statistical Downscaling Model (STAR-ESDM). Both data products are produced through a process known as statistical downscaling, where relatively coarse Global Climate Model (GCM) data is refined to locally relevant scales through the application of scientifically-supported empirical and algorithmic relationships. In support of the NCA effort, this report provides an independent validation of these two products against historical observations, with a focus on precipitation and near-surface temperature variables. Based on the results of this validation, several recommendations are provided related to the use of these data products. The structure of this report is as follows: In section 2, we review three gridded observational products that are used as part of our intercomparison. In section 3, we describe the two statistical downscaling techniques and their corresponding datasets that are the focus of this study. In section 4, the methodology we employ for validation is described. Section 5 provides results of the validation, which in turn motivate our recommendations on the use of these data products. A brief summary is provided in section 6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation of the Glued Sphere Discrete Element Model for Non-Spherical Particles in MFiX Software

To enhance solver capabilities, simulation flexibility and model validation within the MFiX software, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is funding efforts to develop and integrate the glued-sphere discrete element method into the latest version of MFiX as a dedicated computational module. The glued-sphere discrete element method is a numerical technique to depict the behavior of non-spherical particles in granular flows or particulate systems by representing them as a collection of component spheres. These spheres are bonded together to approximate the shape and mechanical/chemical properties of a more complex particle. The method effectively reuses the existing sphere-sphere collision algorithm, interphase momentum and heat transfer calculations utilized in the traditional discrete element method, extending these capabilities to non-spherical particles. Additionally, this method explicitly resolves intra-particle temperature and species distributions. The MFiX glued-sphere computational module includes tools for generating glued sphere configurations, a dedicated solver, and visualization capabilities in post-processing. More specifically within the computational module, collision detection and calculations were first performed on component spheres and then mapped onto non-spherical particles. The linear spring-dashpot model was utilized to simulate the sphere-sphere interactions.

Ke, Renjie↗

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Energy Cost Analysis and Operational Range Prediction Based on Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Real-World Deployments across the United States

While the market for medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles (MHD EVs) is still nascent, a growing number of these vehicles are being deployed across the U.S. This study used over 2.3 million miles of operational data from multiple types of MHD EVs across various regions and operating conditions to address knowledge gaps in total cost of ownership and operational range. First, real-world energy cost savings were determined: MHD fleets should experience energy cost savings each year from 2021 to 2035, regardless of vehicle platform, with the greatest savings seen in transit buses (up to USD 4459 annually) and HD trucks (up to USD 3284 annually). Second, to help fleets across various geographies throughout the U.S. assess the suitability of EVs for their year-round operating needs, operational range was modeled using the XGBoost algorithm (R2: 70%) given 22 input features relevant to vehicle efficiency. Finally, this paper recommends (1) that MHD fleets apply energy-saving practices to minimize the impacts of cold temperatures and high congestion levels on vehicle efficiency and range, and (2) that local hauling fleets select trucks with a nominal range nearly double the expected maximum daily range to account for range losses under local, urban driving conditions.

Qiu, Yin (ORCID:0009000900948794)↗

Simultaneous quantification of uranium( VI ), samarium, nitric acid, and temperature with combined ensemble learning, laser fluorescence, and Raman scattering for real-time monitoring

In this work, laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (LIFS), Raman spectroscopy, and a stacked regression ensemble was developed for near real-time quantification of uranium(VI) (1–100 μg mL –1 ), samarium (0–200 μg mL –1 ) and nitric acid (0.1–4 M) with varying temperature (20 °C–45 °C). LIFS applications range from fundamental lab-scale studies to real-time process monitoring at industrial levels, such as nuclear reprocessing applications, provided the phenomena affecting the fluorescence spectrum are accounted for (e.g., absorption, quenching, complexation). Multiple chemometric models were examined and compared to a more traditional multivariate regression approach called partial least squares (PLS). Results obtained on synthetic samples selected using D-optimal experimental design indicated that a stacked regression method, which included ridge regression, random forest, PLS, and an eXtreme gradient boost algorithm, successfully measured uranium(VI) concentrations directly in nitric acid without measuring luminescence lifetimes or standard addition. The top model resulted in percent root-mean-square error of prediction values of 5.2, 1.9, 3.0, and 2.3% for U(VI), Sm 3+ , HNO 3 , and temperature, respectively. The approach may be useful for quantifying fluorescent fission products (e.g., Sm 3+ ) to provide information on burnup of irradiated nuclear fuel. This novel framework reinforces the applicability of LIFS for real-time applications in nuclear fuel cycle applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Operating a commercial building HVAC load as a virtual battery through airflow control

Virtual battery (VB) is an innovative method to model flexibility of building loads and effectively coordinate them with other resources at a system level. Unlike a real battery with a dedicated power conversion system for charging control, methods are required for operating building loads to deviate from the baseline to respond to grid signals. This paper presents a VB control for a commercial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to follow the desired power consumption in real-time by adjusting zonal airflow rates. The proposed method consists of two parts. At the system level, a mixed feedforward and feedback control is used to estimate the desired total airflow rate. At the zone level, two priority-based algorithms are then proposed to distribute the total airflow rate to individual zones. In particular, a zonal airflow limit estimation method is proposed using machine-learning techniques, in contrast to physics-based thermal models in existing studies, to more accurately capture zonal thermal dynamics and improve temperature control performance. An office building on the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory campus is implemented in EnergyPlus, and used to illustrate and validate the proposed control.

Wang, Jiyu↗

Analysis of the Results of Astroclimate Research at the Kara-Dag Radioastronomical Station in Crimea and the Possibilities for Reducing the Influence of the Atmosphere on Millimeter-Band Radioastronomical Observations

The results of astroclimate research at the Kara-Dag radioastronomical station (Crimea) from July 22 to September 21, 2017, are presented. The algorithms for processing the data obtained by the atmospheric profile method are analyzed. The broad bands of the MIAP-2 receivers are shown to lead to a non-cosecant dependence of the antenna temperatures on viewing angle. The absorption calculation from three zenith angles by the least-squares method and a reference region with a brightness temperature close to the air temperature is optimal. The patterns of change in atmospheric transparency parameters and their connection with the climatic peculiarities of the observing site are considered. The existing atmospheric circulation is shown to create favorable conditions for nighttime astronomical observations in the millimeter wavelength range on the territory of the Kara-Dag station. Alternative and cheaper approaches to reducing the influence of atmospheric moisture on the measurements in this range than the existing trends are proposed. The first approach consists in choosing a location in a zone with a suitable wind rose and a relief leading to the replacement of moist warm air by dry cold one, for example, in the zones of such local winds as a bora. The second approach suggests the introduction of atmospheric parameter measurements by radiometric methods and allowance for their influence in a real time scale. Since the results obtained are based on limited statistics, they are preliminary ones and stimulate further systematic measurements at Kara-Dag.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Targeted Chemical Looping Materials Discovery by an Inverse Design

Chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU) materials is actively sought for combustion of carbonaceous materials to achieve complete conversion and capture of carbon dioxide. These materials may play a vital role in reducing atmospheric carbon via negative carbon output. However, there is no one‐size‐fits‐all approach as different operating conditions and feedstocks may require different CLOU materials. As a result, the exploration and discovery of high‐performance CLOU materials can be a slow process. To address this challenge, a high‐throughput inverse machine learning workflow that identifies optimum materials from perovskite oxides for a given set of targets is developed—temperature and Gibbs free energy of oxygen formation. The model is trained on high‐throughput density functional theory calculations of CLOU materials and inverts the materials design process using a genetic algorithm to produce realistic substituted SrFeO 3‐δ compositions as output. Using the inverse model, it is able to identify several interesting new families of CLOU materials: Sr 1‐ x A x Fe 1‐ y B y O 3‐δ (e.g., A = Ca or K; B = Mg, Bi, Mn, Ni, Co, Cu, or Zn). These materials have shown promising properties, and some of them even outperform the benchmark material in terms of oxygen release kinetics under relevant CLOU operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Review of Onsite Temperature and Solar Forecasting Models to Enable Better Building Design and Operations

Advanced building controls and energy optimization for new constructions and retrofits rely on accurate weather data. Traditionally, most studies utilize airport weather information as the decision inputs. However, most buildings are in environments that are quite different than those at the airport miles away. Tree cover, adjacent buildings, and micro-climate effects caused by the larger surrounding area can all yield deviations in air temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, and wind that are large enough to influence design and operation decisions. In order to overcome this challenge, there are many prior studies on developing weather forecasting algorithms from micro-to meso-scales. Additionally, this paper reviews and complies knowledge on common weather data resources, data processing methodologies and forecasting techniques of weather information. Commonly used statistical, machine learning and physical-based models are discussed and presented as two major categories: deterministic forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Finally, evaluation metrics for forecasting errors are listed and discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Open Combinatorial Diffraction Dataset Including Consensus Human and Machine Learning Labels with Quantified Uncertainty for Training New Machine Learning Models

Modern machine learning and autonomous experimentation schemes in materials science rely on accurate analysis of the data ingested by these models. Unfortunately, accurate analysis of the underlying data can be difficult, even for domain experts, complicating the training of the models intended to drive experiments. This is especially true when the goal is to identify the presence of weak signatures in diffraction or spectroscopic datasets. In this work, we examine a set of as-obtained diffraction data that track the phase transition from monoclinic to tetragonal in a Nb-doped VO2 film as a function of temperature and dopant concentration. We then task a set of domain experts and a set of machine learning experts with identifying which phase is present in each diffraction pattern manually and algorithmically, respectively; in both cases, the labels can vary dramatically, especially at the phase boundaries. We use the mode of the labels and the Shannon entropy as a method to capture, preserve and propagate consensus labels and their variance. Further we use the expert labels as a benchmark and demonstrate the use of Shannon entropy weighted scoring to test the performance of machine learning generated labels. Finally, we propose a material data challenge centered around generating improved labeling algorithms. This real-world dataset curated with expert labels can act as test bed for new algorithms. The raw data, annotations and code used in this study are all available online at data.gov and the interested reader is encouraged to replicate and improve the existing models

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantum simulation of exact electron dynamics can be more efficient than classical mean-field methods

Quantum algorithms for simulating electronic ground states are slower than popular classical mean-field algorithms such as Hartree–Fock and density functional theory but offer higher accuracy. Accordingly, quantum computers have been predominantly regarded as competitors to only the most accurate and costly classical methods for treating electron correlation. However, here we tighten bounds showing that certain first-quantized quantum algorithms enable exact time evolution of electronic systems with exponentially less space and polynomially fewer operations in basis set size than conventional real-time time-dependent Hartree–Fock and density functional theory. Although the need to sample observables in the quantum algorithm reduces the speedup, we show that one can estimate all elements of the k-particle reduced density matrix with a number of samples scaling only polylogarithmically in basis set size. We also introduce a more efficient quantum algorithm for first-quantized mean-field state preparation that is likely cheaper than the cost of time evolution. We conclude that quantum speedup is most pronounced for finite-temperature simulations and suggest several practically important electron dynamics problems with potential quantum advantage.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Grain boundary effects in high-temperature liquid-metal dealloying: a multi-phase field study

Abstract A multi-phase field model is employed to study the microstructural evolution of an alloy undergoing liquid dealloying, specifically considering the role of grain boundaries. A semi-implicit time-stepping algorithm using spectral methods is implemented, which enables simulating large 2D and 3D domains over long time scales while still maintaining a realistic interfacial thickness. Simulations reveal a mechanism of coupled grain–boundary migration to maintain equilibrium contact angles with the topologically complex solid–liquid interface, which locally accelerates diffusion-coupled growth of a liquid channel into the precursor. This mechanism asymmetrically disrupts the ligament connectivity of the dealloyed structure in qualitative agreement with published experimental observations. The grain boundary migration-assisted corrosion channels form even for precursors with small amounts of the dissolving alloy species, below the parting limit . The activation of this grain boundary dealloying mechanism depends strongly on grain boundary mobility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of Heat Dissipation Profiles on Power Electronics Packaging Design

This work focuses on understanding the thermal impacts of using discrete power devices and limitations of applying conventional thermal design methods. Empirically, a thermal system is designed based on selecting a heat sink with the required thermal resistance from the manufacturer datasheet. This method, as an approximate estimation, has been proven effective as a rough design of Si-based power module. However, wide bandgap (WBG) bare dies bring additional thermal design concerns that have been overlooked. The benefits of WBG devices, such as smaller chip sizes and higher power ratings, on the other hand, lead to thermal concentration issues. Detailed analyses and impacts of the thermal concentration are presented in this paper. Finally, a more accurate model involving Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and Genetic Algorithm optimization is also proposed for a more accurate thermal design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An algorithm for detecting and quantifying disturbance and recovery in high-frequency time series

Determining when a disturbance has occurred, its severity, and when the system recovered, is important to numerous questions in the aquatic sciences. This problem can be conceptualized as the timing and degree of perturbation from a typical state, and when the system returns to that typical state. We present an algorithm for detecting disturbance and recovery designed for high-frequency time series, e.g., data produced by automated sampling devices in instrumented buoys and flux towers. The algorithm quantifies differences in the empirical cumulative distribution functions of moving windows over reference and evaluation periods, and is sensitive to changes in the mean, variance, and higher statistical moments. Tests on simulated data show it accurately identifies disturbance and recovery. Three case studies illustrate the application of our algorithm in different empirical settings. A case study on dissolved oxygen in a Florida, USA estuary following a hurricane identified the disturbance and recovery 73 d later. A case study on air temperature and net ecosystem exchange in the Florida everglades identified cold snaps coinciding with periods of reduced carbon uptake. A case study on rotifer abundance following zebra mussel invasion in the Hudson River, NY showed rotifer collapse following invasion and recovery over a decade later. Methods such as ours can improve understanding response to disturbance and facilitate comparative and synthetic study of disturbance impacts across ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Smarter building start – A distributed solution

A significant focus of research and new technologies for reducing energy use in buildings is on operating the systems more efficiently during the times when the systems are active. However, there is a large potential for energy savings in determining the periods when the systems should or should not be active. This scheduling aspect of operation is often overlooked even though relatively simple solutions can unlock substantial energy savings. In this paper we describe a smart building start (SBS) algorithm that considers multiple zones in a building to determine individual schedules for room controllers as well as the central systems based on solving a simple optimization problem. Application of the SBS algorithm to multiple interconnected systems enables a staggered start-up that minimizes peak loads and also ensures comfort is within a target range with minimal system run time. The SBS algorithm extends the capability of traditional optimal start and is designed to be simple to deploy and robust. Simulation results as well as results from tests in a real building with a VAV system are presented. The presented algorithm is applicable to any type of building with a zonal or multi-zone HVAC system. To function, it needs to be able to change setpoints in rooms and monitor room temperatures, as well as, if desired, turn the central system on or off.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A data driven control strategy for optimal and flexible operation of absorption systems; Stratégie de régulation fondée sur les données pour un fonctionnement optimal et flexible des systèmes à absorption

A novel control strategy for vapor absorption systems with experimental validation is presented. Statistical methods are used to integrate a detailed thermodynamic model and system-specific characteristics into a model based control algorithm. This allows for continuously optimized operation as well as fast response to variations in operating conditions. Autonomous controller performance was tested experimentally for response to changes in heat sink and evaporator temperatures. Continuous turndown with fast response to capacity demand changes, in contrast to suboptimal on/off control, was demonstrated. The thermal compressor concept was employed to develop the variable speed thermal compressor module, with aspects specific to absorption heat pumps, also facilitating cross-applicability of vapor compression system control strategies. Our results of this study enable further development and optimization of absorption systems for a wide range of applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗