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DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrological and Thermal Dynamics of a Supra‐Permafrost Subterranean Estuary

Subterranean estuaries (STEs), where groundwater interacts with seawater, influence surface and subsurface coastal ecology and biogeochemistry. In Arctic-STEs overlying permafrost, groundwater flow and heat transport determine the fate of organic matter. Yet, direct observations of groundwater flow and heat and solute transport processes in Arctic STEs remain limited. This study characterized groundwater flow paths and fluxes and heat transport within an Arctic-STE along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast during thawing, summer, and freeze-up. Intertidal seabed temperature-depth profiles collected along a 10-m transect captured the active groundwater flow period, from thaw and flow onset in mid-June to freeze-up in late-September. During this period, aquifer geometry evolved non-uniformly due to spatially varying thaw rates across the STE (mean (m) thaw depths–beach: 0.25 to 0.55–0.6 m on 20 June, 25 July, 1 October; seabed: 0.6–0.9 m from 25 July to 1 October). Groundwater and surface water levels, salinity, and subsurface temperature profiles measured over tidal time scales were interpreted alongside groundwater flow-heat transport numerical simulations. Fresh groundwater discharge was sporadic during thawing (m: 0.32 m 3 /day/m), abundant in summer (m: 0.45 m 3 /day/m), and was largely absent during freeze-up. During freeze-up, groundwater flow was driven exclusively by seawater recirculation via tidal pumping (from thawing to summer to freeze-up: 0.00025–0.15–0.5 m3/day/m) and convection. Heat advection dominated near aquatic interfaces (shaping intertidal ice), and conduction controlled vertical temperature gradients in low-flow and unsaturated sediments. These findings will help predict how prolonged summers will alter Arctic-STE cryo-hydrology and biogeochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decentralized digital twins of complex dynamical systems

Abstract In this article, we introduce a decentralized digital twin (DDT) modeling framework and its potential applications in computational science and engineering. The DDT methodology is based on the idea of federated learning, a subfield of machine learning that promotes knowledge exchange without disclosing actual data. Clients can learn an aggregated model cooperatively using this method while maintaining complete client-specific training data. We use a variety of dynamical systems, which are frequently used as prototypes for simulating complex transport processes in spatiotemporal systems, to show the viability of the DDT framework. Our findings suggest that constructing highly accurate decentralized digital twins in complex nonlinear spatiotemporal systems may be made possible by federated machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

DECaNT: Simulation tool for diffusion of excitons in carbon nanotube films

In this work, we present the numerical tool DECaNT (Diffusion of Excitons in Carbon NanoTubes) that simulates exciton transport in thin films of carbon nanotubes. Through a mesh of nanotubes generated using the Bullet Physics C++ library, excitons move according to an ensemble Monte Carlo algorithm, with the scattering rates that account for tube chirality, orientation, and distance. We calculate the diffusion tensor from the position–position correlation functions and analyze its anisotropy and dependence on the film composition, morphology, and defect density.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling household-level party composition behavior for multiparty activities: a random parameter nested logit modeling approach

This study presents findings of a household-level party composition model for multiparty activities. It exploits data from a comprehensive Household Travel Survey conducted by Chicago Metropolitan Agency of Planning. The study estimates a random parameter nested logit model to capture households’ unobserved preference heterogeneity and non-proportional substitution patterns in terms of activity party composition for multiparty activities. A wide variety of household demographics, activity attributes and residential neighborhood characteristics are examined in this paper. The magnitude of the impacts of the determinants are tested in this study by analyzing the elasticity of the variables, which suggests that household demographics and attributes of the multiparty activities have significant effects on the household-level activity party composition. Residential neighborhood characteristics, although somewhat less impactful, still play a meaningful role. This model will be implemented within the POLARIS transportation systems simulator to improve the activity generation modeling workflow, and the prediction accuracy of various activity-travel components.

activity party composition↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and preliminary results of 270 GHz microwave forward scattering diagnostic system on the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST)

To measure localized (intermediate, high) poloidal wavenumber electron density fluctuations, a tangential millimeter-wave collective scattering system has been designed and successfully developed on the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST). This innovative system employs a 270 GHz mm-wave probe beam, emitted from the mid-plane of Port K and directed towards Port P after passing through a combination of two in-vessel mirrors. Here these two ports are located on the EAST device’s midplane and are 110° apart. The downward scattered signals pass through two in-vessel mirrors, and exit through the P window. The received multi-channel separated scattering signals are arranged along the poloidal direction. This optical arrangement makes the monitored turbulent wave number is poloidal dominant and up to 40 cm −1 . The tangential microwave scattering scheme enables this diagnostic to monitor local density fluctuations, with typically a radial spatial resolution △ R = 5 cm, and a wavenumber resolution of △ k = 0.4 cm −1 . The scattering system underwent comprehensive laboratory testing in 2023, with installation finalized in 2024. The system features steerable launch and receiver optics, allowing remote control to position the scattering volume from normalized radius ρ –0 to the pedestal region on a shot-by-shot basis. Effective experimental data, characterized by distinct off-center spectral peaks, have been successfully obtained in neutral beam-heated plasmas on EAST. The beam tracing forward modeling has been employed for experimental data interpretation. The advanced millimeter-wave scattering system provides fluctuation measurement capability from ion temperature gradient to electron temperature gradient scale on low field side. Preliminary experimental density fluctuation data have been successfully obtained in neutral beam-heated plasmas on EAST. The localized measurement will be used for kinetic turbulence transport numerical simulation validation.

high-k collective scattering↗

DOE OSTI2023

Disentangling the effects of non-adiabatic interactions upon ion self-diffusion within warm dense hydrogen

Warm dense matter is a material state in the region of parameter space connecting condensed matter to classical plasma physics. In this intermediate regime, we investigate the significance of non-adiabatic electron-ion interactions upon ion dynamics. To disentangle non-adiabatic from adiabatic electron-ion interactions, we compare the ion self-diffusion coefficient from the non-adiabatic electron force field computational model with an adiabatic, classical molecular dynamics simulation. A classical pair potential developed through a force-matching algorithm ensures the only difference between the models is due to the electronic inertia. Here, we implement this new method to characterize non-adiabatic effects on the self-diffusion of warm dense hydrogen over a wide range of temperatures and densities. Ultimately we show that the impact of non-adiabatic effects is negligible for equilibrium ion dynamics in warm dense hydrogen.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Semiclassical treatment of bottomonium suppression and regeneration in 𝑝 + Pb collisions

Here, we study bottomonium suppression in 𝑝 + Pb relative to 𝑝 + 𝑝 collisions at center-of-mass energies of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 and 8.16 TeV. Specifically, we combine cold nuclear matter effects (nuclear modifications of the parton densities, energy loss, and momentum broadening) with those from hot nuclear matter (suppression and regeneration) by implementing the formation of a quark-gluon plasma in hydrodynamic simulations. Bottomonium transport in the quark-gluon plasma is evaluated semiclassically, employing two different reaction rates. The first includes quasifree inelastic scattering and gluodissociation employing a perturbative coupling to the medium. The second is based on in-medium 𝑇-matrix calculations where the input potential is constrained by lattice quantum chromodynamics to extract the bottomonium masses and dissociation rates. These semiclassical results are compared to previous calculations in an open quantum system approach and to the experimental data. Predictions for 𝜒 𝑏 suppression at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 8.16 TeV are also presented.

Physics - Physics of elementary particles and fiel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Elliptic flow coalescence to identify the $f_0$(980) content

Here we use a simple coalescence model to generate $f_0$(980) particles for three configurations: a $s\bar{s}$ meson, a $u\bar{u}s\bar{s}$ tetraquark, and a $K^+K^–$ molecule. The phase-space information of the coalescing constituents is taken from a multiphase transport (AMPT) simulation of heavy-ion collisions. It is shown that the number of constituent quarks scaling of the elliptic flow anisotropy can be used to discern $s\bar{s}$ from $u\bar{u}s\bar{s}$ and $K^+K^–$ configurations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ratios of collective flow observables in high-energy isobar collisions are insensitive to final-state interactions

The ratios of bulk observables, such as harmonic flow v 2 and v 3 , between high-energy 96 Ru + 96 Ru and 96 Zr + 96 Zr collisions were recently argued to be a clean probe of the nuclear structure differences between 96 Ru and 96 Zr . Using a transport model simulation of isobar collisions, we quantify this claim from the dependence of the ratios v 2,Ru /v 2, Zr and v 3,Ru /v 3,Zr on various final-state effects, such as the shear viscosity, hadronization, and hadronic cascade. Although the v 2 and v 3 change by more than 50% when varying the final-state effects, the ratios are unchanged. In addition, these ratios are independent of the transverse momentum p T and hadron species, despite of up to a factor of 2 change in v n . Further, the ratio of mean transverse momentum $\langle$p T $\rangle$ is found to be controlled by the nuclear skin and nuclear radius but is only slightly impacted by the final-state effects. Therefore, these isobar ratios serve as a clean probe of the initial condition of the quark-gluon plasma, which, in turn, is controlled by the collective structure of the colliding nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural network emulation of flow in heavy-ion collisions at intermediate energies

Applications of new techniques in machine learning are speeding up progress in research in various fields. In this work, we construct and evaluate a deep neural network (DNN) to be used within a Bayesian statistical framework as a faster and more reliable alternative to the Gaussian process (GP) emulator of an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate beam energies. We found strong evidence of the DNN being able to emulate the IBUU simulator's prediction on the strengths of protons' directed and elliptical flow very efficiently even with small training datasets and with accuracy about ten times higher than the GP. Here, limitations of our present work and future improvements are also discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections and stiffness of dense nuclear matter from Bayesian analyses of FOPI proton-flow excitation functions

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian process (GP) emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions with momentum-independent Skyrme interactions, we infer from the proton directed and elliptical flow in mid-central Au + Au reactions, measured at beam energies from 150 to 1200 MeV/nucleon by the FOPI Collaboration, the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section (BBSCS) modification factor 𝑋 (with respect to their free-space values) and the stiffness parameter 𝐾 of dense nuclear matter. Here, we find that the most probable value of 𝑋 evolves from around 0.7 to 1.0 as the beam energy 𝐸 beam /𝐴 increases. On the other hand, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) may have dual peaks having roughly the same height or extended shoulders at high 𝐾 values. More quantitatively, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) changes from having a major peak around 220 MeV, characterizing a soft EOS in the reaction at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 = 150 MeV, to one that peaks around 320 MeV, indicating a stiff EOS in the reactions at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 higher than about 600 MeV. The transition from soft to stiff happens in mid-central Au + Au reactions at beam energies around 250 MeV/nucleon in which 𝐾 = 220 MeV and 𝐾 = 320 MeV are approximately equally probable. Altogether, the FOPI proton-flow excitation function data indicate a gradual hardening of hot and dense nuclear matter as its density and temperature increase in reactions with higher beam energies.

nuclear matter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evidence of Quadrupole and Octupole Deformations in Zr 96 + Zr 96 and Ru 96 + Ru 96 Collisions at Ultrarelativistic Energies

In the hydrodynamic model description of heavy-ion collisions, the elliptic flow v 2 and triangular flow v 3 are sensitive to the quadrupole deformation β 2 and octupole deformation β 3 of the colliding nuclei. The relations between v n and β n have recently been clarified and were found to follow a simple parametric form. The STAR Collaboration has just published precision v n data from isobaric Ru 96 + Ru 96 and Zr 96 + Zr 96 collisions, where they observe large differences in central collisions v 2 , Ru > v 2 , Zr and v 3 , Ru < v 3 , Zr . Using a transport model simulation, we show that these orderings are a natural consequence of $\beta_{2,Ru} \gg \beta_{2,Zr}$ and $\beta_{3,Ru} \ll \beta_{3,Zr}$ We reproduce the centrality dependence of the v 2 ratio qualitatively and v 3 ratio quantitatively and extract values of β 2 and β 3 that are consistent with those measured at low-energy nuclear structure experiments. STAR data provide the first direct evidence of strong octupole correlations in the ground state of Zr 96 in heavy-ion collisions. Our analysis demonstrates that flow measurements in high-energy, heavy-ion collisions, especially using isobaric systems, are a new precision tool to study nuclear structure physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hyperdiffusion of dust particles in a turbulent tokamak plasma

The effect of plasma turbulence on the trajectories of dust particles is investigated for the first time. The dynamics of dust particles is computed using the ad-hoc developed Dust Injection Simulator code, using a 3D turbulent plasma background computed with the TOKAM3X code. As a result, the evolution of the particle trajectories is governed by the ion drag force, and the shape of the trajectory is set by the Stokes number $St\propto a_d/n_0$, with $a_d$ the dust radius and $n_0$ the density at the separatrix. The plasma turbulence is observed to scatter the dust particles, exhibiting a hyperdiffusive regime in all cases. The amplitude of the turbulent spread of the trajectories $\Delta r^2$ is shown to depend on the ratio $Ku/St$, with $Ku\propto u_{rms}$ the Kubo number and $u_{rms}$ the fluctuation level of the plasma flow. These results are compared with a simple analytical model, predicting $\Delta r^2\propto (Ku/St)^2t^3$, or $\Delta r^2\propto (u_{rms}n_0/a_d)^2t^3$. As the dust is heated by the plasma fluxes, thermionic emission sets the dust charge, originally negative, to slightly positive values. This results in a substantial reduction of the ion drag force through the suppression of its Coulomb scattering component. The dust grain inertia is then no longer negligible, and drives the transition from a hyperdiffusive regime towards a ballistic one.

dust↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation Dataset - Input files

The input data that are required to run the model are divided into fundamental data and advanced data. The fundamental data are essential to run the model, while the advanced data allow optional model features to be activated. The names of all input data files are to be entered as ASCII characters in a tabular format. Spaces, commas, or tabs can separate numeric fields, the use of any other special visible or hidden characters must be avoided. It may be useful to note that all files are generally read in using standard free-format style FORTRAN READ statements. The input data files can be generated/modified using any standard editor, spreadsheet or word processor (in non-document mode), given that the above guidelines are complied with. However, the inclusion of special formatting characters and the insertion of blank lines must be avoided. The input data files may also be generated through the use of special purpose translation programs that convert the input data files that were initially generated for another traffic simulation or transportation planning model into an INTEGRATION format.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Simulation Model for Analyzing Multimodal Transportation of CO2 for CCUS

The overarching goal of this work is to determine how the United States can avoid being constrained by transportation limitations as the CCUS process evolves to a full gigaton-level system. The model is data-driven, open to CO2 supply and demand points defined as input data, and designed to allow for transportation on waterways, rail, or pipeline.

Clark, RobinJ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of a nuclear-disturbed environment on electromagnetic wave propagation through the atmosphere

This paper investigates the effects of a nuclear-disturbed environment on the transmission of electromagnetic (EM) waves through the atmosphere. An atmospheric nuclear detonation can produce heightened free electron densities in the surrounding atmosphere that can disrupt EM waves that propagate through the disturbed region. Radiation transport models simulated the ionization and free electron densities created in the atmosphere from a 1 MT detonation at heights of burst of 5 km, 25 km, and 75 km. Recombination rates for the free electrons in the atmosphere were applied, from previous work in the literature, to determine the nuclear-induced electron densities as a function of time and space after the detonation. A ray-tracing algorithm was applied to determine the refraction and reflection of waves propagating in the different nuclear-disturbed environments. The simulation results show that the free electron plasma created from an atmospheric nuclear detonation depend on the height of burst of the weapon, the weapon yield, and the time after detonation. Detonations at higher altitudes produce higher free electron densities for greater durations and over larger ranges. The larger the free electron densities, the greater the impact on EM wavelengths in regards to refraction, reflection, and absorption in the atmosphere. An analysis of modern infrastructure and the effects of nuclear-disturbed atmospheres on different signal wavelengths and systems is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of X-ray Irradiation and Carnauba Wax Coating on Quality of Lime (Citrus latifolia Tan.) Fruit

The quality of Persian (Tahiti) lime (Citrus latifoliaTan.) fruit was determined following coating with carnauba wax and X-ray irradiation at doses suitable for disinfestation of quarantine pests. Fruit with or without carnauba wax coating were treated with irradiation doses of 0, 150, 300, or 450 Gy, and stored for 14 days at 13 °C and 6 days at 20 °C to simulate commercial transportation and marketing conditions from Hawaii to the continental United States. The fruit color, weight loss, total soluble solids (TSS) content, and titratable acidity (TA) were analyzed at 7, 14, and 14 + 6 days post irradiation. Wax coating significantly delayed fruit peel discoloration, and reduced fruit weight loss by more than 7% compared with the unwaxed controls. Irradiation did not affectΔEof the peel for coated fruit at day 14 + 6. Irradiation with or without coating did not affectΔEof flesh color, weight loss, TSS content, or TA. Wax coating combined with irradiation treatment of limes at doses ≤450 Gy ensured marketable visual quality and chemical composition while providing quarantine security.

Agriculture↗