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At least 487 records · Page 27

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NASA NTRS1985

Ridged Plains of Lunae Planum: Thickness Distribution Revised

New data are used to revise the isopach of plains-forming material in the Lunae Planum region. The distribution of data points in the region has not increased; consequently, the new map is still valid for generalized thickness trends only. The isopach map is based on a total of 65 points; 32 points represent thickness estimates at partially buried craters. The remaining 33 points define the limits of plains-forming materials (zero thickness). Suitable buried craters are randomly distributed and sparse near the western edge and northern portion of the area. The overall thickness trend is similar to the previously mapped distribution, but there is a significant reduction in thickness values.

Dehon, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Estimating Uncertainties in the SBUV Version 8.6 Merged Profile Ozone Data Set

The combined record of total and profile ozone measurements from the solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) and SBUV/2 series of instruments, known as the SBUV Merged Ozone Data (MOD) product, constitutes the longest satellite-based ozone time series from a single instrument type and as such plays a key role in ozone trend analyses. Following the approach documented in Frith et al. (2014) to analyze the merging uncertainties in the MOD total ozone record, we use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the potential for uncertainties in the calibration and drift of individual instruments in the profile ozone merged data set. We focus our discussion on the trends and associated merging uncertainty since 2001 in an effort to verify the start of ozone recovery as predicted by chemistry climate models. We find that merging uncertainty dominates the overall estimated uncertainty when considering only the 15 years of data since 2001. We derive trends versus pressure level for the MOD data set that are positive in the upper stratosphere as expected for ozone recovery. These trends appear to be significant when only statistical uncertainties are included but become not significant at the 2o level when instrument uncertainties are accounted for. However, when we use the entire data set from 1979 through 2015 and fit to the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine) we find statistically significant fits throughout the upper stratosphere at all latitudes. This implies that the ozone profile data remain consistent with our expectation that chlorine is the dominant ozone forcing term.

Ozone profile↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global Biodiversity Implications of Alternative Electrification Strategies Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Addressing climate mitigation while meeting global electrification goals will require major transitions from fossil-fuel dependence to large-scale renewable energy deployment. However, renewables require significant land assets per unit energy and could come at high cost to ecosystems, creating potential conflicts between global climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Here, we explore the potential biodiversity implications of alternative future global electrification pathways as depicted under the Shared Socioeconomic Scenarios (SSPs), i.e., alternative trends in societal development. We examined the intersection of high-resolution estimates of global energy densities for ten renewable and conventional technologies with global richness data to estimate technology-specific biodiversity footprints (species per GWh), whereas a Cumulative Biodiversity Impact (CBI) score was used to assess land and biodiversity outcomes of alternative scenarios. Downscaled electricity generation scenarios (2020-2100) were also constrained by alternative land conservation and energy development policies. Unexpectedly, variation among SSPs did not exhibit a clear tradeoff between global climate mitigation and CBI. Rather, CBIs were an outcome of total infrastructure development to meet electricity demand (from population growth and GDP) and the total magnitude of renewable energy development and storage technologies. Renewables assembled along a spectrum from land sharing to sparing. At the land sharing end, biomass-powered electricity from dedicated crops contributed the most to biodiversity impacts due to low energy density, whereas land-sparing technologies (solar) caused more-intense land degradation, but in smaller areas. Our results suggest that local land conservation practices and strategies promoting energy diversification could have greater implications for future biodiversity conflicts than global socioeconomic drivers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strain-Based Assessment of Shale Caprock during Cyclic Underground Hydrogen Storage

Successful large-scale underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted gas reservoirs depends on the integrity of the overlying caprock to prevent hydrogen loss during cyclic injection and depletion. Prior studies on crushed Marcellus shale, a potential caprock, indicate that cyclic hydrogen injection and depletion induces microstructural changes, increasing porosity and permeability. However, the extent of these changes in intact shale remains unclear. This study presents a strain-based experimental approach to quantify volumetric strain evolution in intact Marcellus shale matrix under unconstrained stress conditions. A quadrant-shaped shale sample without visible fractures underwent eight hydrostatic pore-pressure cycles (injection to 1500 psi and depletion to 500 psi in 250 psi steps). Linear strain gauges measured strain in three orthogonal directions. Results indicate progressive plastic strain accumulation, leading to an ∼12% increase in matrix porosity after eight cycles, with an estimated 19% increase after 30 cycles. This porosity increase follows a logarithmic trend, suggesting a diminishing effect in later cycles. Additionally, permeability and diffusive mass flux are projected to rise by ∼70% over 30 cycles, enhancing hydrogen migration risk. The shale matrix also exhibited mechanical stiffening over successive cycles, limiting large-scale deformation but not preventing porosity enhancement. A new parameter, α, was introduced to characterize shale sensitivity to cyclic loading, aiding UHS caprock assessments. These findings underscore the necessity of incorporating cyclic loading effects in UHS site selection and operational strategies to ensure long-term storage integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Data Collection and International Project Inventory

We present an interactive data collection to aggregate, understand, and disseminate the data that are publicly available to support offshore GCS which can be leveraged by stakeholders to understand where GCS may be viable offshore, create GCS project analogs, and address challenges to GCS in offshore environments. The Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Data Collection is an Experience Builder web application of multiple web mapping applications, aggregated into a single tool for each data type for access, visualization, and exploration. We also present a spatial inventory of global offshore GCS efforts to visualize the scale and locations of actualized and potential offshore GCS. It includes project location, project type and stage, CO2 storage resource potential, injection rate, reservoir and seal geology, and key literature references. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons of the distribution and magnitude of projects by their attributes lends spatial insight into the status of global GCS operations and storage resource potential, thereby enabling comparative assessments and cross-cutting knowledge transfer for projects in development. These datasets illuminate trends in ongoing offshore projects and can be leveraged by stakeholders to estimate storage resources, identify subsurface analogs, review regulations, and address challenges to offshore GCS. Additionally, opportunities for concurrent decarbonization strategies can be identified.

Mulhern, Julia↗

DOE OSTI2024

International Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Project Inventory and Data Collection

Mulhern, Julia↗

DOE OSTI2024

International Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Inventory and Data Collection

Mulhern, Julia↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sweden surpasses the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target: estimating HIV-1 incidence, 2003 to 2022

Background: Sweden reached the UNAIDS 90–90–90 target in 2015. It is important to reassess the HIV epi- demiological situation due to ever-changing migration patterns, the roll-out of PrEP and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: We aimed to assess the pro- gress towards the UNAIDS 95–95–95 targets in Sweden by estimating the proportion of undiagnosed people with HIV (PWHIV) and HIV incidence trends. Methods: We used routine laboratory data to inform a biomarker model of time since infection. When available, we used previous negative test dates, arrival dates for PWHIV from abroad and transmission modes to inform our incidence model. We also used data collected from the Swedish InfCareHIV register on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Results: The yearly incidence of HIV in Sweden decreased after 2014. In part, this was because the fraction of undiagnosed PWHIV had decreased almost twofold since 2006. After 2015, three of four PWHIV in Sweden were diagnosed within 1.9 and 3.2 years after infection among men who have sex with men and in heterosexual groups, respectively. While 80% of new PWHIV in Sweden acquired HIV before immigration, they make up 50% of the current PWHIV in Sweden. By 2022, 96% of all PWHIV in Sweden had been diag- nosed, and 99% of them were on ART, with 98% virally suppressed. Conclusions: By 2022, about half of all PWHIV in Sweden acquired HIV abroad. Using our new biomarker model, we assess that Sweden has reached the UNAIDS goal at 96–99–98.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Intermediate-age Alpha-rich Galactic Population in K2

We explore the relationships between the chemistry, ages, and locations of stars in the Galaxy using asteroseismic data from the K2 mission and spectroscopic data from the Apache Point Galactic Evolution Experiment survey. Previous studies have used giant stars in the Kepler field to map the relationship between the chemical composition and the ages of stars at the solar circle. Consistent with prior work, we find that stars with high [α/Fe] have distinct, older ages in comparison to stars with low [α/Fe]. We provide age estimates for red giant branch (RGB) stars in the Kepler field, which support and build upon previous age estimates by taking into account the effect of α-enrichment on opacity. Including this effect for [α/Fe]-rich stars results in up to 10% older ages for low-mass stars relative to corrected solar mixture calculations. This is a significant effect that Galactic archeology studies should take into account. Looking beyond the Kepler field, we estimate ages for 735 RGB stars from the K2 mission, mapping age trends as a function of the line of sight. We find that the age distributions for low- and high-[α/Fe] stars converge with increasing distance from the Galactic plane, in agreement with suggestions from earlier work. We find that K2 stars with high [α/Fe] appear to be younger than their counterparts in the Kepler field, overlapping more significantly with a similarly aged low-[α/Fe] population. This observation may suggest that star formation or radial migration proceeds unevenly in the Galaxy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles

Abstract. This work assesses a recently produced 21-member climate model large ensemble (LE) based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SM2). The ensemble spans the historical era (1850 to 2014) and 21st century (2015 to 2100), using the SSP370 pathway, allowing for an evaluation of the model's forced response. A companion 500-year preindustrial control simulation is used to initialize the ensemble and estimate drift. Characteristics of the LE are documented and compared against other recently produced ensembles using the E3SM version 1 (E3SM1) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2. Simulation drift is found to be smaller, and model agreement with observations is higher in versions 2 of E3SM and CESM versus their version 1 counterparts. Shortcomings in E3SM2 include a lack of warming from the mid to late 20th century, likely due to excessive cooling influence of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, an issue also evident in E3SM1. Associated impacts on the water cycle and energy budgets are also identified. Considerable model dependence in the response to both aerosols and greenhouse gases is documented and E3SM2's sensitivity to variable prescribed biomass burning emissions is demonstrated. Various E3SM2 and CESM2 model benchmarks are found to be on par with the highest-performing recent generation of climate models, establishing the E3SM2 LE as an important resource for estimating climate variability and responses, though with various caveats as discussed herein. As an illustration of the usefulness of LEs in estimating the potential influence of internal variability, the observed CERES-era trend in net top-of-atmosphere flux is compared to simulated trends and found to be much larger than the forced response in all LEs, with only a few members exhibiting trends as large as observed, thus motivating further study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1974

Study of recreational land and open space using Skylab imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. Sl90B color photography has adequate resolution to detect or identify many natural and cultural features which are significant for the evaluation of recreational land and open space. The effectiveness of the interpretation could be improved if coverage were obtained at two or three different seasons so that indicators such as seasonal changes in vegetation cover or snow enhancement could aid the interpretation of land use and land cover. The degree of detail which can be observed from Sl90B photography makes it useful for the following purposes: (1) Photography can be used to obtain general familiarity with a large regional area, and to study interrelationships of major natural and cultural features within the area. (2) Existing recreational facilities such as golf courses, parks, stadiums, race tracks, and marinas can be detected and identified. (3) The photography can be used for initial selection of recreation sites. (4) It would also indicate trends in population growth, which constitute one type of information needed in estimating the growth of recreation demand. The photography has only limited use for planning individual site planning of parks, golf courses, and other recreation facilities.

Sattinger, I. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Rye Canyon X-ray noise test: One-third octave-band data

Acoustic data were obtained for the 25 ft. diameter X-wing rotor model during performance testing of the rotor system in hover. Data collected at the outdoor whirl tower test facility with a twelve microphone array were taken for approximately 150 test conditions comprised of various combinations of RPM, blade pressure ratio (BPR), and blade angle of attack (collective). The three test parameters had four values of RPM from 404 to 497, twelve values of BPR from 1.0 to 2.1, and six values of collective from 0.0 deg to 8.5 deg. Fifteen to twenty seconds of acoustic data were reduced to obtain an average 1/3 octave band spectrum for each microphone for each test condition. The complete, as measured, 1/3 octave band results for all the acoustic data are listed. Another part of the X-wing noise test was the acoustic calibration of the Rye Canyon whirl tower bowl. Corrections were computed which, when applied to as measured data, yield estimates of the free field X-wing noise. The free field estimates provide a more realistic measure of the rotor system noise levels. Trend analysis of the three test parameters on noise level were performed.

Willshire, W. L., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Ground Vibration and Flight Flutter Tests of the Single-seat F-16XL Aircraft with a Modified Wing

The NASA single-seat F-16XL aircraft was modified by the addition of a glove to the left wing. Vibration tests were conducted on the ground to assess the changes to the aircraft caused by the glove. Flight Luther testing was conducted on the aircraft with the glove installed to ensure that the flight envelope was free of aeroelastic or aeroservoelastic instabilities. The ground vibration tests showed that above 20 Hz, several modes that involved the control surfaces were significantly changed. Flight test data showed that modal damping levels and trends were satisfactory where obtainable. The data presented in this report include estimated modal parameters from the ground vibration and flight flutter test.

Voracek, David F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Radio wave scattering in the outer heliosphere

Current models for the 2-3 kHz emissions observed by the Voyager spacecraft in the outer heliosphere involve 2f(p) radiation generated near the termination shock or the heliopause. Radio wave scattering by solar wind density irregularities strongly affects observed sources of f(p) and 2f(p) emission in the inner heliosphere and the characteristics of astrophysical sources. In particular, the angular size, brightness temperature, and time variability of the source are strongly affected by scattering, thereby having major implications for the inferred size, energy budget, time variability, location, and nature of the source if scattering is ignored. This paper addresses whether scattering is important for interpreting the Voyager 2-3 kHz emissions. Quantitative calculations (with and without diffraction) are performed for the angular broadening of an outer heliospheric source as a function of path length, radiation frequency relative to f(p) and the spectrum of density irregularities. The effects of scattering in both the solar wind and the heliosheath are considered. Predictions for radial gradients in the source's apparent angular size and in the source's modulation index are presented. The calculations are compared with observations and the results discussed. First estimates suggest that scattering plausibly dominates the observed source size. The observed trend in modulation index with heliocentric distance is consistent with scattering being important and the source being in the outer heliosphere. Additional arguments for scattering being important are summarized.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Interdisciplinary Investigations in Support of Project DI-MOD

Various concepts from time series analysis are used as the basis for the development of algorithms to assist in the analysis and interpretation of remote sensed imagery. An approach to trend detection that is based upon the fractal analysis of power spectrum estimates is presented. Additionally, research was conducted toward the development of a software architecture to support processing tasks associated with databases housing a variety of data. An algorithmic approach which provides for the automation of the state monitoring process is presented.

Starks, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Consideration of Alternate Working Fluid Properties in Gas Lubricated Foil Journal Bearings

The Oil-Free Turbomachinery Program at the NASA Glenn Research center is committed to, revolutionary improvements in performance, efficiency and reliability of turbomachinery propulsion systems. One of the key breakthroughs by which this goal is being achieved is the maturation of air lubricated foil bearing technology. Through experimental testing, foil bearings have demonstrated a variety of exceptional qualities that show them to have an important role in the future of rotordynamic lubrication. Most of the work done with foil bearings thus far has considered ambient air at atmospheric pressure as the working fluid or lubricating fluid in the bearing. However, special applications of oil-free technology require the use of air at non- standard ambient conditions or completely different working fluids altogether. The NASA Jupiter Icy Moon Orbiter program presents power generation needs far beyond that of any previous space exploration effort. The proposed spacecraft will require significant power generation to provide the propulsion necessary to reach the moons of Jupiter and navigate between them. Once there, extensive scientific research will be conducted that will also present significant power requirements. Such extreme needs require exploring a new method for power generation in space. A proposed solution involves a Brayton cycle nuclear fission reactor. The nature of this application requires reliable performance of all reactor components for many years of operation under demanding conditions. This includes the bearings which will be operating with an alternative working fluid that is a combination of Helium and Xenon gases commonly known as HeXe. This fluid has transport and thermal properties that vary significantly from that of air and the effect of these property differences on bearing performance must be considered. One of the most promising applications of oil-free technology is in aircraft turbine engines. Eliminating the oil supply systems from aircraft engines will lead to significant weight and maintenance reduction. In such applications, the lubricating fluid will be high altitude air. This air will be at much lower pressure than that at sea level. Again this property change will result in a change in bearing performance, and analysis is required to quantify this effect. The study of these alternate working fluid properties will be conducted in two ways: analytically and experimentally. Analytical research will include the use of a mathematical code that can predict film thickness profiles for various ambient conditions. Estimations of load capacity can be made based upon the film thickness trends. These values will then be compared to those obtained from classical rigid bearing analysis. Experimental Research will include testing a foil bearing at a variety of ambient air pressures. The analytical and experimental data will be compared to draw conclusions on bearing performance under alternate working fluid properties.

Smith, Matthew J.↗