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At least 487 records · Page 27

Trends of Measured Climate Forcing Agents

The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/sq m per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately equal to 3 W/sq m per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (approximately equal to 2 W/M2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate + 0.15 +/- 0.05 C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

Hansen, James E.↗

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard ED photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Derivation of Tropospheric Ozone Climatology and Trends from TOMS Data

This research addresses the following three objectives: (1) Derive tropospheric ozone columns from the TOMS instruments by computing the difference between total-ozone columns over cloudy areas and over clear areas in the tropics; (2) Compute secular trends in Nimbus-7 derived tropospheric Ozone column amounts and associated potential trends in the decadal-scale tropical cloud climatology; (3) Explain the occurrence of anomalously high ozone retrievals over high ice clouds.

Newchurch, Michael J.↗

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

30-Year Satellite Record Reveals Accelerated Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Antarctic Sea Ice Trend Reversal

Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30 plus or minus 0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1972 through 2002, but decreased by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased, with an overall 30-year trend of -0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent observed in the early 1970's.

Cavalieri, Donald J.↗

Implications of Version 8 TOMS and SBUV Data for Long-Term Trend Analysis

Total ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and profile/total ozone data from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV; SBW/2) series of instruments have recently been reprocessed using new retrieval algorithms (referred to as Version 8 for both) and updated calibrations. In this paper, we incorporate the Version 8 data into a TOMS/SBW merged total ozone data set and an S B W merged profile ozone data set. The Total Merged Ozone Data (Total MOD) combines data from multiple TOMS and SBW instruments to form an internally consistent global data set with virtually complete time coverage from October 1978 through December 2003. Calibration differences between instruments are accounted for using external adjustments based on instrument intercomparisons during overlap periods. Previous results showed errors due to aerosol loading and sea glint are significantly reduced in the V8 TOMS retrievals. Using SBW as a transfer standard, calibration differences between V8 Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMS data are approx. 1.3%, suggesting small errors in calibration remain. We will present updated total ozone long-term trends based on the Version 8 data. The Profile Merged Ozone Data (Profile MOD) data set is constructed using data from the SBUV series of instruments. In previous versions, SAGE data were used to establish the long-term external calibration of the combined data set. The SBW Version 8 we assess the V8 profile data through comparisons with SAGE and between SBW instruments in overlap periods. We then construct a consistently-calibrated long term time series. Updated zonal mean trends as a function of altitude and season from the new profile data set will be shown, and uncertainties in determining the best long-term calibration will be discussed.

Frith, Stacey M.↗

Means, Variability and Trends of Precipitation in the Global Climate as Determined by the 25-year GEWEWGPCP Data Set

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used as a basis to evaluate the mean state, variability and trends (or inter-decadal changes) of global and regional scales of precipitation. The uncertainties of these characteristics of the data set are evaluated by examination of other, parallel data sets and examination of shorter periods with higher quality data (e.g., TRMM). The global and regional means are assessed for uncertainty by comparing with other satellite and gauge data sets, both globally and regionally. The GPCP global mean of 2.6 mdday is divided into values of ocean and land and major latitude bands (Tropics, mid-latitudes, etc.). Seasonal variations globally and by region are shown and uncertainties estimated. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is shown to be related to ENS0 variations and volcanoes and is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend. The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record.

Adler, R. F.↗

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.↗

Comparisons of Temporal and Spatial Trends in the Spatially Complete Global Spectral Surface Albedos Products

Five years of spatially complete snow-free land surface albedo data have been prepared using high quality white-sky and black-sky land surface albedo observations (MOD43B3) from the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite platform. The data were generated using an updated ecosystem-dependent temporal interpolation technique. In this paper, we describe the refinements in the technique and the creation of a spatially complete snow-free five-year aggregate climatology product. This paper also describes an error analysis of the interpolation technique. The filled albedo products are examined through comparisons of temporal and spatial trends for pixels that have been filled versus pixels that have been retained in the original MOD43B3 values. The variability in the trends showcase how the filling technique maintains the pixel-level spatial, spectral, and temporal integrity of the MOD43B3 data. These comparisons are made for both a single-year of filled data, year 2002, and for the five-year aggregate climatology product.

Moody, Eric G.↗

Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

One of the responsibilities of the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services is to support NASA sponsored investigators in the area of reduced-gravity acceleration data analysis, interpretation and the monitoring of the reduced-gravity environment on-board various carriers. With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked and processed on ground for both the space station onboard environment characterization (and verification) and scientific experiments. Therefore, to help principal investigator teams monitor the acceleration level on-board the International Space Station to avoid undesirable impact on their experiment, when possible, the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services developed an artificial intelligence monitoring system, which detects in near real time any change in the environment susceptible to affect onboard experiments. The main objective of the monitoring system is to help research teams identify the vibratory disturbances that are active at any instant of time onboard the International Space Station that might impact the environment in which their experiment is being conducted. The monitoring system allows any space research scientist, at any location and at any time, to see the current acceleration level on-board the Space Station via the World Wide Web. From the NASA Glenn s Exploration Systems Division web site, research scientists can see in near real time the active disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost, extra-vehicular activity, etc., and decide whether or not to continue operating or stopping (or making note of such activity for later correlation with science results) their experiments based on the g-level associated with that specific event. A dynamic graphical display accessible via the World Wide Web shows the status of all the vibratory disturbance activities with their degree of confidence as well as their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

Jules, Kenol↗

International Space Station Execution Replanning Process: Trends and Implications

International Space Station is a joint venture. Because of this, ISS execution planning- planning within the week for the ISS requires coordination across multiple partner, and the associated processes and tools to allow this coordination to occur. These processes and tools are currently defined and are extensively used. This paper summarizes these processes, and documents the current data trends associated with these processes and tools, with a focus on the metrics provided from the ISS Planning Product Change Request (PPCR) tool. As NASA's Vision for Space Exploration and general Human spaceflight trends are implemented, the probability of joint venture long duration programs such as ISS, with varying levels of intergovernmental and/or corporate partnership, will increase. Therefore, the results of this PPCR analysis serve as current Lessons learned for the ISS and for further similar ventures.

McCormick, Robet J.↗

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Molnar, Gyula↗

Landsat-based Analysis of Mountain Forest-tundra Ecotone Response to Climate Trends in Sayan Mountains

observations of temperatures Siberia has shown a several degree warming over the past 30 years. It is expected that forest will respond to warming at high latitudes through increased tree growth and northward or upward slope migration. migration. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. Making repeated satellite observations over several decades provides an opportunity to track vegetation response to climate change. Based on Landsat data of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure and an upward tree-line shift in the of the forest-tundra ecotone during the last quarter of the 2oth century,. On-ground observations, supporting these results, also showed regeneration of Siberian pine in the alpine tundra, and the transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal (upright) forms. During this time period sparse stands transformed into closed stands, with existing closed stands increasing in area at a rate of approx. 1 %/yr, and advancing their upper border at a vertical rate of approx. 1.0 m/yr. In addition, the vertical rate of regeneration propagation is approx. 5 m/yr. It was also found that these changes correlated positively with temperature trends

Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.↗

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses: Long-term Trend - Part 1

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. Except for known GW characteristics, the warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4K in the 2oth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with GW is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamic and water vapor fields. The dynamic field based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which shows a change in the Walker Circulation, is consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in the ERA-40 reanalysis.

Chen, Junye↗

First Measurements of the HCFC-142b Trend from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) Solar Occultation Spectra

The first measurement of the HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2) trend near the tropopause has been derived from volume mixing ratio (VMR) measurements at northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes for the 2004-2008 time period from spaceborne solar occultation observations recorded at 0.02/cm resolution with the ACE (atmospheric chemistry experiment) Fourier transform spectrometer. The HCFC-142b molecule is currently the third most abundant HCFC (hydrochlorofluorocarbon) in the atmosphere and ACE measurements over this time span show a continuous rise in its volume mixing ratio. Monthly average measurements at northern and southern hemisphere midlatitudes have similar increase rates that are consistent with surface trend measurements for a similar time span. A mean northern hemisphere profile for the time span shows a near constant VMR at 8-20km altitude range, consistent on average for the same time span with in situ results. The nearly constant vertical VMR profile also agrees with model predictions of a long lifetime in the lower atmosphere.

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗

Global Trends in Space Access and Utilization

In the not-so-distant past, space access and air/space technology superiority were within the purview of the U.S. and former Soviet Union's respective space agencies, both vying for global leadership in space exploitation. In more recent years, with the emergence of the European Space Agency (ESA) member countries and Asian countries joining the family of space-faring nations, it is truer now more than ever that space access and utilization has become a truly global enterprise. In fact, according to the Space Report 2007, this enterprise is a $251-billion economy. It is possible to gauge the vitality of worldwide efforts from open sources in today's transparent, media-based society. In particular, print and web broadcasters regularly report and catalog global space activities for defense and civil purposes. For the purposes of this paper, a representative catalog of missions is used to illustrate the nature of the emerging "globalization." This paper highlights global trends in terms of not only the providers of space access, but also the end-users for the various recently accomplished missions. With well over 50 launches per year, in recent years, the launch-log reveals a surprising percentage of "cooperative or co-dependent missions" where different agencies, countries, and/or commercial entities are so engaged presumably to the benefit of all who participate. Statistics are cited and used to show that recently over d0% of the 50-plus missions involved multiple nations working collectively to deliver payloads to orbit. Observers, space policy professionals, and space agency leaders have eloquently proposed that it might require the combined resources and talents of multiple nations to advance human exploration goals beyond low earth orbit. This paper does not intend to offer new information with respect to whether international collaboration is necessary but to observe that, in continuing to monitor global trends, the results seem to support the thesis that a global interdependent effort with all its likely complexities is an increasingly viable and pragmatic option. The discussion includes a breakdown of space missions into those of civil (scientific), military, and strictly commercial nature. It concludes that all three are robust components of a globally diversified portfolio of activities relying, essentially, on a common space industrial base and space infrastructure. As in other industries, the distribution of space industry assets and knowledge across countries and continents enables a diverse suite of options and arrangements, particularly in the areas of civil and commercial space utilization. A survey of several ongoing bilateral and multilateral space collaboration examples are provided to augment the observations regarding multinational work in space.

Rahman, Shamim A.↗

Trend Analysis and Detection of Changes in the Stratospheric Circulation

Increases in the circulation of the stratosphere appear to be a robust result of climate change in chemistry-climate models over decadal time scales. To date observations have yet to show a significant change in this circulation. It is important for the design of future observational missions to identify suitable atmospheric constituents and to determine the accuracy and length of record needed to identify a significant trend that can be attributed to circulation change. First, we determine what atmospheric variables can be used as proxies for stratospheric circulation changes. A few examples are changes in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, phase lag of the water vapor tape recorder, CO2, and SF6. Then, using both the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) and observations from satellites and balloon soundings, we calculate the number of years needed to detect a significant trend, taking into account observational uncertainty. Model simulations will be evaluated to see how well they represent observed variability. In addition, the impacts of autocorrelation among the output or data and gaps in the observational record will be discussed.

Oman, Luke↗

Trends in MODIS Geolocation Error Analysis

Data from the two MODIS instruments have been accurately geolocated (Earth located) to enable retrieval of global geophysical parameters. The authors describe the approach used to geolocate with sub-pixel accuracy over nine years of data from M0DIS on NASA's E0S Terra spacecraft and seven years of data from MODIS on the Aqua spacecraft. The approach uses a geometric model of the MODIS instruments, accurate navigation (orbit and attitude) data and an accurate Earth terrain model to compute the location of each MODIS pixel. The error analysis approach automatically matches MODIS imagery with a global set of over 1,000 ground control points from the finer-resolution Landsat satellite to measure static biases and trends in the MO0lS geometric model parameters. Both within orbit and yearly thermally induced cyclic variations in the pointing have been found as well as a general long-term trend.

Wolfe, R. E.↗