Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 487 records · Page 27

Ultraviolet photometry from the orbiting astronomical observatory. 8: The blue Ap stars

The filter photometers in the Wisconsin Experiment Package on OAO-2 were used to obtain data for a carefully selected set of 24 blue Ap stars and 31 comparison standard B and A dwarfs and giants for a program of relative photometry. Observations were made in seven bandpasses over the effective wavelength range 1430A-4250A. The Ap stars observed include members of the Si, Hg-Mn and Sr-Cr-Eu peculiarity classes. Most of them are too blue in B-V for their published MK spectral classes. The blue Ap stars are markedly deficient in emitted ultraviolet flux and are underluminous as compared to normal stars with the same UBV colors. The Hg-Mn stars appear less flux deficient in the ultraviolet for their UBV colors than do Si or Sr-cr-Eu stars. Most of the Ap stars observed possess ultraviolet flux distributions, or ultraviolet color temperatures, consistent with their published MK spectral classes to well within the classification uncertainties.

Leckrone, D. S.↗

Preliminary analysis of hot spot factors in an advanced reactor for space electric power systems

The maximum fuel pin temperature for nominal operation in an advanced power reactor is 1370 K. Because of possible nitrogen embrittlement of the clad, the fuel temperature was limited to 1622 K. Assuming simultaneous occurrence of the most adverse conditions a deterministic analysis gave a maximum fuel temperature of 1610 K. A statistical analysis, using a synthesized estimate of the standard deviation for the highest fuel pin temperature, showed probabilities of 0.015 of that pin exceeding the temperature limit by the distribution free Chebyshev inequality and virtually nil assuming a normal distribution. The latter assumption gives a 1463 K maximum temperature at 3 standard deviations, the usually assumed cutoff. Further, the distribution and standard deviation of the fuel-clad gap are the most significant contributions to the uncertainty in the fuel temperature.

Lustig, P. H.↗

A fault-tolerant intelligent robotic control system

This paper describes the concept, design, and features of a fault-tolerant intelligent robotic control system being developed for space and commercial applications that require high dependability. The comprehensive strategy integrates system level hardware/software fault tolerance with task level handling of uncertainties and unexpected events for robotic control. The underlying architecture for system level fault tolerance is the distributed recovery block which protects against application software, system software, hardware, and network failures. Task level fault tolerance provisions are implemented in a knowledge-based system which utilizes advanced automation techniques such as rule-based and model-based reasoning to monitor, diagnose, and recover from unexpected events. The two level design provides tolerance of two or more faults occurring serially at any level of command, control, sensing, or actuation. The potential benefits of such a fault tolerant robotic control system include: (1) a minimized potential for damage to humans, the work site, and the robot itself; (2) continuous operation with a minimum of uncommanded motion in the presence of failures; and (3) more reliable autonomous operation providing increased efficiency in the execution of robotic tasks and decreased demand on human operators for controlling and monitoring the robotic servicing routines.

Marzwell, Neville I.↗

Surface and aerosol models for use in radiative transfer codes

Absolute reflectance-based radiometric calibrations of Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) are improved with the inclusion of a method to invert optical-depth measurements to obtain aerosol-particle size distributions, and a non-Lambertian surface reflectance model. The inverted size distributions can predict radiances varying from the previously assumed jungian distributions by as much as 5 percent, though the reduction in the estimated error is less than one percent. Comparison with measured diffuse-to-global ratios show that neither distribution consistently predicts the ratio accurately, and this is shown to be a large contributor to calibration uncertainties. An empirical model for the surface reflectance of White Sands, using a two-degree polynomial fit as a function of scattering angle, was employed. The model reduced estimated errors in radiance predictions by up to one percent. Satellite calibrations dating from October, 1984 were reprocessed using the improved methods and linear estimations of satellite counts per unit radiance versus time since launch were determined which showed a decrease over time for the first four bands.

Hart, Quinn J.↗

Probabilistic Reasoning for Plan Robustness

A planning system must reason about the uncertainty of continuous variables in order to accurately project the possible system state over time. A method is devised for directly reasoning about the uncertainty in continuous activity duration and resource usage for planning problems. By representing random variables as parametric distributions, computing projected system state can be simplified in some cases. Common approximation and novel methods are compared for over-constrained and lightly constrained domains. The system compares a few common approximation methods for an iterative repair planner. Results show improvements in robustness over the conventional non-probabilistic representation by reducing the number of constraint violations witnessed by execution. The improvement is more significant for larger problems and problems with higher resource subscription levels but diminishes as the system is allowed to accept higher risk levels.

autonomous planning↗

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Carbon dioxide↗

Improved Constraints on Global Methane Emissions and Sinks Using δ13C-CH4

We study the drivers behind the global atmospheric methane (CH4) increase observed after 2006. Candidate emission and sink scenarios are constructed based on proposed hypotheses in the literature. These scenarios are simulated in the TM5 tracer transport model for 1984–2016 to produce three-dimensional fields of CH4 and δ13C-CH4, which are compared with observations to test the competing hypotheses in the literature in one common model framework. We find that the fossil fuel (FF) CH4 emission trend from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.3.2 inventory does not agree with observed δ13C-CH4. Increased FF CH4 emissions are unlikely to be the dominant driver for the post-2006 global CH4 increase despite the possibility for a small FF emission increase. We also find that a significant decrease in the abundance of hydroxyl radicals (OH) cannot explain the post-2006 global CH4 increase since it does not track the observed decrease in global mean δ13C-CH4. Different CH4 sinks have different fractionation factors for δ13C-CH4, thus we can investigate the uncertainty introduced by the reaction of CH4 with tropospheric chlorine (Cl), a CH4 sink whose abundance, spatial distribution, and temporal changes remain uncertain. Our results show that including or excluding tropospheric Cl as a 13 Tg/year CH4 sink in our model changes the magnitude of estimated fossil emissions by ∼20%. We also found that by using different wetland emissions based on a static versus a dynamic wetland area map, the partitioning between FF and microbial sources differs by 20 Tg/year, ∼12% of estimated fossil emissions.

X. Lan↗

Demand Capacity Balancing at Vertiports for Initial Strategic Conflict Management of Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a new transportation concept that enables highly automated, cooperative, passenger or cargo-carrying air transportation services in and around urban areas. To achieve the high level of operational density and complexity desired by the UAM community, an airspace system that allows UAM operators to readily access and operate safely and efficiently in the airspace is needed. This airspace system will require air traffic management designed to reduce the risk of conflicts and loss of separation between UAM flights. In general, strategic conflict management is considered as the first layer of conflict management for safe flight operations to condition the traffic to reduce the need for airborne separation provision, the second layer of conflict management. Demand Capacity Balancing (DCB) is one of the concept components to achieve strategic conflict management. DCB strategically evaluates traffic demand and resource capacities to allow UAM operators to determine when, where and how they operate, while mitigating conflicting needs for airspace and vertiport capacity. DCB can be applied whenever UAM demand exceeds the capacity in airspace or at vertiports. As the UAM ecosystem evolves with advanced technologies and matured operational procedures, more complicated conflict management will likely be needed. In the current UAM ‘Concept of Operation (ConOps) 1.0’ operational stage defined by FAA, however, it will be meaningful to explore the demand capacity balancing at vertiports only, as an initial strategic conflict management approach for UAM operations because vertiport capacity seems to be a bottleneck of UAM traffic. For this research, we developed a demand-capacity imbalance detection and resolution service for UAM. This DCB service identifies the demand from operators and compares the demand to a given capacity at the shared resources (i.e., vertiports) over the upcoming time horizon which is divided into time bins having a constant interval. When a new flight plan is submitted, the algorithm embedded in the DCB service checks the available time bins based on the desired departure time and estimated arrival time at origin and destination vertiports, respectively. If the time bins for the originally desired times are already occupied by other flights (i.e., demand is at or above capacity), the algorithm finds the next available time bins for takeoff and landing and shifts the conflicting departure time to the earliest time that satisfies the capacity constraints at both origin and destination vertiports. The details of the algorithm will be described in the final manuscript. Figure 1 shows that the proposed DCB algorithm works well for a sample traffic scenario. In this example, a total of 144 flights, split between two operators, are planned over 2 hours, traveling 10 routes between five vertiports. In the heatmaps, the horizontal axis shows 12 time bins where each bin represents a 12-minute interval, and the vertical axis shows five vertiports. The number in each cell shows the number of operations, counting both departures and arrivals, at a specific vertiport in each time bin. For the given capacity of 2 operations/vertiport/bin, Figure 1 shows that the original demand sometimes exceeds the capacity, but the modified demand is reduced to the given capacity after resolving demand-capacity imbalances. When UAM flights are operated, it is expected that many practical issues would arise in the federated system architecture with multiple operators. UAM operators may experience a time synchronization issue due to communication delay between operator and vehicle. UAM vehicles would fly at different flight speeds, depending on vehicle models. Actual departure and arrival times can have large variations, compared to the schedule. The lead time from flight plan submission to desired departure time can vary by service type (e.g., regular shuttle service vs. on-demand service). Using the proposed DCB algorithm, we also investigated how the actual flight schedule and DCB performance are affected by these uncertainties such as unsynchronized times between operators, flight speed differences, lead time differences, and departure time errors. The final manuscript will include the background of this research work, the description of the DCB algorithm and its use cases with traffic scenarios. It will also provide the analytical results about the impact of various uncertainties that can occur in actual UAM operations on the DCB at vertiports, in terms of demand distribution changes, number of simultaneous operations, and delay propagation.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Photoelectron fluxes in the Martian ionosphere

Calculations are presented of the steady-state photoelectron distribution in the upper atmosphere of Mars, consistent with the neutral upper atmosphere and ionosphere particle concentrations and temperatures measured by Viking 1. Uncertainties in the calculations affect the thermal electron gas heating rate. Major conclusions are that (1) over most of the altitude range of the Martian ionosphere, the steady-state photoelectron flux amplitude is larger than that in the earth's, so that photoelectron-impact-excited airglow on Mars is generally more significant than it is on earth; (2) the steady-state photoelectron energy distribution in the Martian ionosphere is softer and more structured than that in the terrestrial ionosphere; (3) photoelectron impact ionization contributes about 30% to the total ionization rate in the Martian ionosphere; and (4) photoelectron impact excitation contributes 20-30% of the CO2(+) and CO zenith airglow emissions on Mars.

Mantas, G. P.↗

The Uncertainty of Biomass Estimates from LiDAR and SAR Across a Boreal Forest Structure Gradient

In this study, weexamined the uncertainty of aboveground live biomass (AGB) estimates based on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) measurements distributed across a low-biomass vegetation structure gradient fromforest to non-forest in boreal-like ecosystems. The conifer-dominant structure gradient was compiled from ground data amassed from multiple field expeditions in central Maine (USA), Aurskog (Norway), and across central Siberia (Russia). Single variable empirical models were built tomodel AGB fromremote sensingmetrics. Using thesemodels, we calculated a rootmean square error (RMSE) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of the RMSE fromthe difference between the remote sensing AGB predictions and the ground reference AGB estimates within AGB intervals across a 0-100 Mg ha(exp.−1) boreal forest structure gradient. The results show that the error in AGB predictions (RMSE) and the error uncertainty (the CI) from LiDAR and SAR change across a forest gradient. The errors of airborne LiDAR and SAR metrics and spaceborne LiDAR platforms show a general trend of reduced relative errors as AGBmagnitudes increase, particularly from0 to 60 Mg ha (exp.−1). Empirical models relating spaceborne metrics to AGB and estimates of spaceborne LiDAR error uncertainty demonstrate the difficulty of characterizing differences in AGB at the site-level with current spaceborne sensors, particularly below 80 Mg ha (exp.−1) with less than 50-100% error.

Taiga↗

Robust fixed order dynamic compensation for large space structure control

A simple formulation for designing fixed order dynamic compensators which are robust to both uncertainty at the plant input and structured uncertainty in the plant dynamics is presented. The emphasis is on designing low order compensators for systems of high order. The formulation is done in an output feedback setting which exploits an observer canonical form to represent the compensator dynamics. The formulation also precludes the use of direct feedback of the plant output. The main contribution lies in defining a method for penalizing the states of the plant and of the compensator, and for choosing the distribution on initial conditions so that the loop transfer matrix approximates that of a full state design. To improve robustness to parameter uncertainty, the formulation avoids the introduction of sensitivity states, which has led to complex formulations in earlier studies where only structured uncertainty has been considered.

Calise, Anthony J.↗

A statistical approach to the brittle fracture of a multi-phase solid

A stochastic damage model is proposed to quantify the inherent statistical distribution of the fracture toughness of a brittle, multi-phase solid. The model, based on the macrocrack-microcrack interaction, incorporates uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks. Due to the high concentration of microcracks near the macro-tip, a higher order analysis based on traction boundary integral equations is formulated first for an arbitrary array of cracks. The effects of uncertainties in locations and orientations of microcracks at a macro-tip are analyzed quantitatively by using the boundary integral equations method in conjunction with the computer simulation of the random microcrack array. The short range interactions resulting from surrounding microcracks closet to the main crack tip are investigated. The effects of microcrack density parameter are also explored in the present study. The validity of the present model is demonstrated by comparing its statistical output with the Neville distribution function, which gives correct fits to sets of experimental data from multi-phase solids.

Liu, W. K.↗

Differential Yields and Uncertainty Assessments for Electric Propulsion Plume Impingement Sputter Redeposition Contamination

Redeposition of sputtered erosion products from electric propulsion plume impingement is a contamination concern for spacecraft. Calculation of expected deposition quantities requires accurate characterization of the angular distribution of differential yields. An evaluation of available expressions is performed as well as a derivation of an alternate form that can better match experimental measurements through more general inclusion of anisotropic effects. The derivation is extended to the dependence of the total yield on incident angle. Considerations of the inherent uncertainty in both total and differential yields and accounting of subsequent margins for end applications are also discussed.

sputtering↗

Static and Dynamic Model Update of an Inflatable/Rigidizable Torus Structure

The present work addresses the development of an experimental and computational procedure for validating finite element models. A torus structure, part of an inflatable/rigidizable Hexapod, is used to demonstrate the approach. Because of fabrication, materials, and geometric uncertainties, a statistical approach combined with optimization is used to modify key model parameters. Static test results are used to update stiffness parameters and dynamic test results are used to update the mass distribution. Updated parameters are computed using gradient and non-gradient based optimization algorithms. Results show significant improvements in model predictions after parameters are updated. Lessons learned in the areas of test procedures, modeling approaches, and uncertainties quantification are presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

An asymptotic method for estimating the vertical ozone distribution in the Earth's atmosphere from satellite measurements of backscattered solar UV-radiation

An asymptotic approach to solution of the inverse problems of remote sensing is presented. It consists in changing integral operators characteristic of outgoing radiation into their asymptotic analogues. Such approach does not add new principal uncertainties into the problem and significantly reduces computation time that allows to develop the real (or about) time algorithms for interpretation of satellite measurements. The asymptotic approach has been realized for estimating vertical ozone distribution from satellite measurements of backscatter solar UV radiation in the Earth's atmosphere.

Ishov, Alexander G.↗

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗

Integration of Uncertain Ramp Area Aircraft Trajectories and Generation of Optimal Taxiway Schedules at Charlotte Douglas (CLT) Airport

The integration of aircraft maneuver characteristics into an optimal taxiway scheduling solution is challenging due to the uncertainties that are intrinsic to ramp area aircraft trajectories. To address the challenge, we build a stochastic model of ramp area aircraft trajectories that is used to generate a probabilistic measure of conflict within the Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) ramp area. Parameters of the conflict distributions are estimated and passed to a Mixed Integer Linear Program that solves for an optimal taxiway schedule constrained to be conflict free in the presence of trajectory uncertainties. Here we extend our previous research by accounting for departing and arriving aircraft whereas our prior formulation only accounted for departing aircraft.

taxiway schedule↗

Optical Studies of Low Reflectance Materials at Solar Reflective Wavelengths in Support of Remote Sensing Instrument Development and Calibration

We report the Bidirectional Reflection Distribution Function (BRDF) and Total Hemispheric Reflectance (THR) results of several low reflectance materials using a Table-top Goniometer (TTG) and a commercial UV-VIS-NIR spectrophotometer in support of the NASA GSFC PACE project. The newly developed TTG was utilized to perform the BRDF measurements for several black candidate samples in in-plane and out-of-plane configurations from 300 nm to 2000 nm. These measurements demonstrated the BRDF capability of the TTG to calibrate the dim calibration target with a reflectance of approximately 2 % for the OCI of the PACE project. The spectral THR of the black samples from 200 nm to 2500 nm was determined using a 10 % reflectance diffuse black standard and a monochromator-based light source equipped with a 150 mm diameter integrating sphere. The THR measurement is used to compliment and validate the BRDF measurements acquired from these samples. In this presentation, we also show examples of UV induced BRDF and THR changes on two black coatings. We will discuss validation of the BRDF scale, source stability, measurement repeatability, instrument signature, and uncertainty components.

Bidirectional Reflection Distribution Function (BR↗