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At least 487 records · Page 27

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vertical Profiles of Aerosol Optical Properties Over Central Illinois and Comparison with Surface and Satellite Measurements

Between June 2006 and September 2009, an instrumented light aircraft measured over 400 vertical profiles of aerosol and trace gas properties over eastern and central Illinois. The primary objectives of this program were to (1) measure the in situ aerosol properties and determine their vertical and temporal variability and (2) relate these aircraft measurements to concurrent surface and satellite measurements. Underflights of the CALIPSO satellite show reasonable agreement in a majority of retrieved profiles between aircraft-measured extinction at 532 nm (adjusted to ambient relative humidity) and CALIPSO-retrieved extinction, and suggest that routine aircraft profiling programs can be used to better understand and validate satellite retrieval algorithms. CALIPSO tended to overestimate the aerosol extinction at this location in some boundary layer flight segments when scattered or broken clouds were present, which could be related to problems with CALIPSO cloud screening methods. The in situ aircraft-collected aerosol data suggest extinction thresholds for the likelihood of aerosol layers being detected by the CALIOP lidar. These statistical data offer guidance as to the likelihood of CALIPSO's ability to retrieve aerosol extinction at various locations around the globe.

Sheridan P. J.↗

The ground truth analysis of rain gauge data for the TRMM project

As a part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Missioin (TRMM) ground truth program to determine the diurnal variability of the area wide rain rates, the rain rate PDFs, and their effect on the area integral algorithm, rain rate data have been collected from a network of gages located in the area near the Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center, in the period beginning in September 1987. In the preliminary statistical analysis, based on the rain rates derived from the eleven gages, the seasonal diurnal rainfall and network averaged rain rates are determined. The analysis was performed in two steps: determination of the hourly and daily rain accumulations and rain rates; and computation of the fraction of hourly and daily rain rates that exceed a particular threshold, and analysis of the hourly and daily rain rate PDFs for the network. The results indicate that there are diurnal and seasonal variations in the components which determine the network rain rate PDFs.

Kowalewsky, Karen J.↗

Investigation of magnetic fluctuations in L-H and H-L transition dynamics on DIII-D

The dynamics of the L-H transition is not fully understood, with many parameters changing the threshold power to enter H-mode and the self-regulation between zonal flows and turbulence in the plasma edge. This paper is primarily a presentation of experimental results for DIII-D L-H and H-L transitions and speculation on the observations made. Power threshold analysis and measurements of pedestal temperatures for these transitions are presented. A comparison is made between an L-H transition and H-L transition of comparable Psep exhibiting oscillatory behaviour, showing symmetry between forward and backward transition dynamics. This paper shows the first observations of magnetic fluctuations during L-H and H-L transitions on DIII-D, and shows that L-H and H-L transitions have similar magnetic fluctuation dynamics. Information geometry analysis has been performed on measurements of plasma density fluctuations, perpendicular plasma velocity fluctuations, and magnetic field fluctuations to investigate the self-regulation and evolution of these variables during the transitions. Perpendicular flow evolution is shown to dominate the transition dynamics in both directions, but self-regulation behaviour is observed between all three variables. A strong correlation between magnetic fluctuation information rate and density fluctuation information rate for these two shots shows the strong influence of magnetic behaviour on both the L-H and H-L transition, and that these transition dynamics necessarily include electromagnetic effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Factors That Influence Variability in Stress-Drop Measurements Using Spectral Decomposition and Spectral-Ratio Methods for the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

Stress drop is a fundamental parameter related to earthquake source physics, but is hard to measure accurately. To better understand how different factors influence stress-drop measurements, we compare two different methods using the Ridgecrest stress-drop validation data set: spectral decomposition (SD) and spectral ratio (SR), each with different processing options. Here, we also examine the influence of spectral complexity on source parameter measurement. Applying the SD method, we find that frequency bandwidth and time-window length could influence spectral magnitude calibration, while depth-dependent attenuation is important to correctly map stress-drop variations. For the SR method, we find that the selected source model has limited influence on the measurements; however, the Boatwright model tends to produce smaller standard deviation and larger magnitude dependence than the Brune model. Variance reduction threshold, frequency bandwidth, and time-window length, if chosen within an appropriate parameter range, have limited influence on source parameter measurement. For both methods, wave type, attenuation correction, and spectral complexity strongly influence the result. The scale factor that quantifies the magnitude dependence of stress drop show large variations with different processing options, and earthquakes with complex source spectra deviating from the Brune-type source models tend to have larger scale factor than earthquakes without complexity. Based on these detailed comparisons, we make a few specific suggestions for data processing workflows that could help future studies of source parameters and interpretations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterizing post-fire delayed tree mortality with remote sensing: sizing up the elephant in the room

Abstract Background Despite recent advances in understanding the drivers of tree-level delayed mortality, we lack a method for mapping delayed mortality at landscape and regional scales. Consequently, the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on post-fire landscape patterns of burn severity are unknown. We introduce a remote sensing approach for mapping delayed mortality based on post-fire decline in the normalized burn ratio (NBR). NBR decline is defined as the change in NBR between the first post-fire measurement and the minimum NBR value up to 5 years post-fire for each pixel. We validate the method with high-resolution aerial photography from six wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington, USA, and then compare the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on landscape patterns of burn severity among fires and forest types. Results NBR decline was significantly correlated with post-fire canopy mortality (r 2 = 0.50) and predicted the presence of delayed mortality with 83% accuracy based on a threshold of 105 NBR decline. Plots with NBR decline greater than 105 were 23 times more likely to experience delayed mortality than those below the threshold (p < 0.001). Delayed mortality occurred across 6–38% of fire perimeters not affected by stand-replacing fire, generally affecting more areas in cold (22–41%) and wet (30%) forest types than in dry (1.7–19%) types. The total area initially mapped as unburned/very low-severity declined an average of 38.1% and generally persisted in smaller, more fragmented patches when considering delayed mortality. The total area initially mapped as high-severity increased an average of 16.2% and shifted towards larger, more contiguous patches. Conclusions Differences between 1- and 5-year post-fire burn severity maps depict dynamic post-fire mosaics resulting from delayed mortality, with variability among fires reflecting a range of potential drivers. We demonstrate that tree-level delayed mortality scales up to alter higher-level landscape patterns of burn severity with important implications for forest resilience and a range of fire-driven ecological outcomes. Our method can complement existing tree-level studies on drivers of delayed mortality, refine mapping of fire refugia, inform estimates of habitat and carbon losses, and provide a more comprehensive assessment of landscape and regional scale fire effects and trends.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Which Way is Up? Lessons Learned from Space Shuttle Sensorimotor Research

The Space Shuttle Program provided the opportunity to examine sensorimotor adaptation to space flight in unprecedented numbers of astronauts, including many over multiple missions. Space motion sickness (SMS) severity was highly variable across crewmembers. SMS generally lasted 2-3 days in-flight with approximately 1/3 of crewmembers experiencing moderate to severe symptoms, and decreased incidence in repeat flyers. While SMS has proven difficult to predict from susceptibility to terrestrial analogs, symptoms were alleviated by medications, restriction of early activities, maintaining familiar orientation with respect to the visual environment and maintaining contact cues. Adaptive changes were also reflected by the oculomotor and perceptual disturbances experienced early inflight and by the perceptual and motor coordination problems experienced during re-entry and landing. According to crew self-reports, systematic head movements performed during reentry, as long as paced within one's threshold for motion tolerance, facilitated the early readaptation process. The Shuttle provided early postflight crew access to document the initial performance decrements and time course of recovery. These early postflight measurements were critical to inform the program of risks associated with extending the duration of Shuttle missions. Neurological postflight deficits were documented using a standardized subjective rating by flight surgeons. Computerized dynamic posturography was also implemented as a quantitative means of assessing sensorimotor function to support crew return-to-duty assessments. Towards the end of the Shuttle Program, more emphasis has been placed on mapping physiological changes to functional performance. Future commercial flights will benefit from pre-mission training including exposures to launch and entry G transitions and sensorimotor adaptability assessments. While SMS medication usage will continue to be refined, non-pharmacological countermeasures (e.g., sensory aids) will have both space and Earth-based applications. Early postflight field tests are recommended to provide the evidence base for best practices for future commercial flight programs. Learning Objective: Overview of the Space Shuttle Program regarding adaptive changes in sensorimotor function, including what was learned from research, what was implemented for medical operations, and what is recommended for commercial flights.

Wood, S. J.↗

Delineation of vulnerable areas to water erosion in a mountain region using SDR-InVEST model: A case study of the Ourika watershed, Morocco

The Ourika watershed is characterized by higher than average flood flows, a rugged topography, a sparse vegetation cover and a friable substrate that makes it vulnerable to soil erosion. Soil is an important non-renewable asset capital, providing several ecosystem services that sustain life through physical and biological regulation processes. The loss, or otherwise, redistribution of biota by soil erosion in the Ourika watershed has received little attention and thus constitutes a key knowledge gap that needs to be addressed. This study quantifies the level of erosion and maps its spatial distribution in the watershed using the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST3.6.0). The SDR maps the overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream at the watershed level using rainfall, soil properties, topography, cover management and cropping practices as predefined set of input variables. Recommended internal model calibration was used and results were compared to similar studies carried out in different parts of Morocco for validation. The results reveal that 93% of the watershed is subject to a strong rainfall aggressiveness greater than 50 MJ mm ha–1 h–1 yr1 under an average rainfall intensity of 541 mm/year, rainfall capacity to initiate the detachment and transport of soil particles by runoff, and only 11.5% of the watershed area is protected with vegetative cover. We find that overall, the Ourika watershed is losing its soil to erosion at an alarming average rate of 258.48 ton.ha–1.yr–1, a rate well above the tolerable threshold of 7ton.ha–1.yr–1. The spatial distribution of this loss shows areas that need to be urgently remedied. The primary factors for soil erosion in the Ourika watershed appear to be related to the aggressive nature of local rainfall and the inherent susceptibility of soils, which can be costly to this cash-crop region. Because rainfall intensity, soil properties, and topography are intrinsic characteristics of the watershed, we suggest that seasonally adapted cropping rotations that maintains conservative practices with a high cover management may reduce soil erosion in the Ourika watershed.

Erosion↗

Broadband quadrature-squeezed vacuum and nonclassical photon number correlations from a nanophotonic device

We report demonstrations of both quadrature-squeezed vacuum and photon number difference squeezing generated in an integrated nanophotonic device. Squeezed light is generated via strongly driven spontaneous four-wave mixing below threshold in silicon nitride microring resonators. The generated light is characterized with both homodyne detection and direct measurements of photon statistics using photon number–resolving transition-edge sensors. We measure 1.0(1) decibels of broadband quadrature squeezing (~4 decibels inferred on-chip) and 1.5(3) decibels of photon number difference squeezing (~7 decibels inferred on-chip). Nearly single temporal mode operation is achieved, with measured raw unheralded second-order correlations g (2) as high as 1.95(1). Multiphoton events of over 10 photons are directly detected with rates exceeding any previous quantum optical demonstration using integrated nanophotonics. These results will have an enabling impact on scaling continuous variable quantum technology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Variable features on Mars. II - Mariner 9 global results.

Systematic Mariner 9 monitoring of the space and time distribution of Martian bright and dark markings, the streaks and splotches, indicates a range of global correlations. The time-variable classical dark markings owe their configurations and variability to their constituent streaks and splotches, produced by windblown dust. Streaks and splotches are consistent wind direction indicators. Correlation of global streak patterns with general circulation models shows that velocities of about 50 to 90 m/sec above the boundary layer are necessary to initiate grain motion on the surface and to produce streaks and splotches. Detailed examples of changes in Syrtis Major, Lunae Palus, and Promethei Sinus are generally consistent with removal of bright sand and dust and uncovering of darker underlying material as the active agent in such changes, although dark mobile material probably also exists on Mars. The generation of streaks and the progressive albedo changes observed require only threshold velocities of about 2 m/sec for about 1 day at the grain surface.

Sagan, C.↗

Fuzzy set methods for object recognition in space applications

During the reporting period, the development of the theory and application of methodologies for decision making under uncertainty was addressed. Two subreports are included; the first on properties of general hybrid operators, while the second considers some new research on generalized threshold logic units. In the first part, the properties of the additive gamma-model, where the intersection part is first considered to be the product of the input values and the union part is obtained by an extension of De Morgan's law to fuzzy sets, is explored. Then the Yager's class of union and intersection is used in the additive gamma-model. The inputs are weighted to some power that represents their importance and thus their contribution to the compensation process. In the second part, the extension of binary logic synthesis methods to multiple valued logic synthesis methods to enable the synthesis of decision networks when the input/output variables are not binary is discussed.

Keller, James M.↗

TCAD-Machine Learning Enabled TID Compact Model Development for Commercial SiC MOSFET

We propose a TCAD (Technology Computer Aided Design)-machine learning coupled approach that combines a TCAD tool (Charon), optimization/uncertainty quantification tool (Dakota), surrogate models, and Bayesian learning capabilities. The coupling approach is used for accurate modeling and calibration of total ionizing dose (TID) induced threshold voltage (V th ) shifts in Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) semiconductor devices and to develop physics-informed TID compact models. This versatile approach is applied to model the TID effect in an exemplar COTS 3.3 kV SiC power MOSFET (Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistor). With the Charon-Dakota coupling, we can determine key device geometry and doping values based on device physics, which are difficult to obtain or not available for COTS devices but important for TCAD simulation; additionally, we can efficiently generate thousands of simulation results in a large parameter space, which makes it possible to develop data-driven surrogate models and perform Bayesian calibration. Utilizing the full tool-coupling approach, we achieve calibrated TCAD simulation models that accurately capture the average TID-induced V th shifts behavior with total doses and V th shifts saturation at high doses as observed in experimental data. More importantly, the calibrated TCAD simulations are obtained with determined TID model parameters (e.g., hole trap density and capture cross section) values that contain well quantified uncertainties. Furthermore, we can isolate and quantify the noises that are not captured by the TCAD models but exist in the measured data due to measurements and devices variabilities. Lastly, the calibrated surrogate models are used to develop physics-informed TID compact models. The method is generalizable to other devices and/or radiation conditions with few modifications and can provide well-determined uncertainties.

COTS↗

Stress-corrosion cracking in metals

Criteria and recommended practices for preventing stress-corrosion cracking from impairing the structural integrity and flightworthiness of space vehicles are presented. The important variables affecting stress-corrosion cracking are considered to be the environment, including time and temperature; metal composition, and structure; and sustained tensile stress. For designing spacecraft structures that are free of stress-corrosion cracking for the service life of the vehicle the following rules apply: (1) identification and control of the environments to which the structure will be exposed during construction, storage, transportation, and use; (2) selection of alloy compositions and tempers which are resistant to stress-corrosion cracking in the identified environment; (3) control of fabrication and other processes which may introduce residual tensile stresses or damage the material; (4) limitation of the combined residual and applied tensile stresses to below the threshold stress level for the onset of cracking throughout the service life of the vehicle; and (5) establishment of a thorough inspection program.

Source record↗

Accuracy of kinetic equilibrium reconstruction of NSTX and NSTX-U plasmas and its impact on the transport and stability analysis

An accurate magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium reconstruction is an essential starting point for stability and transport plasma analysis. Herein this work describes an approach for obtaining kinetic equilibrium reconstructions using the OMFIT framework, which has been applied for the first time to spherical tokamak data from NSTX and NSTX-U. The EFIT equilibrium solver is integrated with experimental data analysis procedures and subsequent TRANSP transport simulations to enhance the accuracy of the reconstruction, in particular, at the edge region, by adding constraints on the total pressure and current density profiles, based on the transport code solution. The accuracy of the equilibrium reconstruction depends on the uncertainty and number of constraints, as well as the choice of basis functions to represent the pressure and current density profiles. Improved fidelity of the equilibrium reconstruction is demonstrated by reducing the variability of the magnetic axis and boundary locations from several centimeters, for reconstructions based on magnetic and experimental pressure constraints, to only several millimeters, for kinetic reconstructions based on transport code constraints, when different representations of basis functions were tested. The variability of the safety factor on axis was reduced ten times in the same sensitivity study. The accuracy of the equilibrium reconstruction and subsequent mapping of the experimental kinetic profile data have a significant impact on the trapped gyro Landau fluid and linear CGYRO turbulence simulations, which predict different spectra of unstable modes and turbulent fluxes for cases with different numbers of constraints in the equilibrium reconstruction. Conversely, the stability analysis performed using the GATO code shows plasmas that are stable to n = 1 MHD modes in both equilibria using magnetic and experimental pressure constraints as well as the transport code constrained equilibrium. However, a scan of parameters away from these conditions shows considerable deviation in the threshold of unstable modes between these reconstructions. Therefore, for reliable plasma analysis and use in turbulence and stability calculations, a high-fidelity equilibrium reconstruction with accurate kinetic constraints based on transport code solutions is necessary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Evaluation of a parasite-density based pooled targeted amplicon deep sequencing (TADS) method for molecular surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance genes in Haiti

Sequencing large numbers of individual samples is often needed for countrywide antimalarial drug resistance surveillance. Pooling DNA from several individual samples is an alternative cost and time saving approach for providing allele frequency (AF) estimates at a population level. Using 100 individual patient DNA samples of dried blood spots from a 2017 nationwide drug resistance surveillance study in Haiti, we compared codon coverage of drug resistance-conferring mutations in four Plasmodium falciparum genes ( crt , dhps , dhfr , and mdr1 ), for the same deep sequenced samples run individually and pooled. Samples with similar real-time PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values (+/- 1.0 Ct value) were combined with ten samples per pool. The sequencing success for samples in pools were higher at a lower parasite density than the individual samples sequence method. The median codon coverage for drug resistance-associated mutations in all four genes were greater than 3-fold higher in the pooled samples than in individual samples. The overall codon coverage distribution for pooled samples was wider than the individual samples. The sample pools with < 40 parasites/μL blood showed more discordance in AF calls for dhfr and mdr1 between the individual and pooled samples. This discordance in AF estimation may be due to low amounts of parasite DNA, which could lead to variable PCR amplification efficiencies. Grouping samples with an estimated ≥ 40 parasites/μL blood prior to pooling and deep sequencing yielded the expected population level AF. Pooling DNA samples based on estimates of > 40 parasites/μL prior to deep sequencing can be used for rapid genotyping of a large number of samples for these four genes and possibly other drug resistant markers in population-based studies. As Haiti is a low malaria transmission country with very few mixed infections and continued chloroquine sensitivity, the pooled sequencing approach can be used for routine national molecular surveillance of resistant parasites.

Louha, Swarnali (ORCID:0000000207778507)↗

Enhancing GPM Passive and Combined Microwave Algorithms with Dynamic Surface Information for Drizzle Retrieval and Improved Precipitation Detection Over Land

Following the 2014 launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), an unprecedented combination of coincident active and passive microwave observations are available for state of the art precipitation retrieval. The GPM Combined Algorithm forms the backbone of this effort, optimizing geophysical variables for agreement with the full suite of multi-spectral information content. These combined retrievals are then utilized, along with a radiative transfer model, as a database applied for retrievals across a constellation of passive microwave radiometers of varying frequencies. By keeping such retrievals related through the transfer standard of the combined algorithm, level 3 products such as the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) are able to provide consistent global products for users at the higher temporal resolution required for hydrological applications. In initial versions of the combined product, precipitation retrievals are carried out only in the presence of a signal from the active radar. As a result, light precipitation and drizzle below the threshold of DPR sensitivity are not included in any of the products down the chain from the constellation to IMERG. In this work, the effects of enhancing the retrievals with a surface emissivity and non-raining water vapor retrieval using the passive observations are explored. Over both ocean and land, the surface retrieval is used to identify areas with high probability of light precipitation and drizzle which is then quantified using techniques derived from the higher sensitivity CloudSat mission. Results indicate successful inclusion of drizzle in the retrievals that can then be included in the constellation databases, as well as improvement in passive microwave false positive precipitation signals over land in cases where surface scattering was misinterpreted as precipitation signal. The inclusion of the dynamic surface information also creates a more robust, radiometrically consistent retrieval scheme for process studies and hydrologic applications.

Ringerud, Sarah↗

Miniature EPSPs and sensory encoding in the primary afferents of the vestibular lagena of the toadfish, Opsanus tau

The synaptic activity transmitted from vestibular hair cells of the lagena to primary afferent neurons was recorded in vitro using sharp, intracellular microelectrodes. At rest, the activity was composed of miniature excitatory postsynaptic potentials (mEPSPs) at frequencies from 5 to 20/s and action potentials (APs) at frequencies betwen 0 and 10/s. mEPSPs recorded from a single fiber displayed a large variability. For mEPSPs not triggering APs, amplitudes exhibited an average coefficient of variance (CV) of 0.323 and rise times an average CV of 0.516. APs were only triggered by mEPSPs with larger amplitudes (estimated 4-6 mV) and/or steeper maximum rate of rise (10.9 mV/ms, +/- 3.7 SD, n=4 experiments) compared to (3.50 mV/ms, +/-0.07 SD, n=6 experiments) for nontriggering mEPSPs. The smallest mEPSPs showed a fast rise time (0.99 ms between 10% and 90% of peak amplitude) and limited variability across fibers (CV:0.18) confirming that they were not attenuated signals, but rather represented single-transmitter discharges (TDs). The mEPSP amplitude and rise-time relationship suggests that many mEPSPs represented several, rather than a single pulse of secretion of TDs. According to the estimated overall TD frequency, the coincidence of TDs contributing to the same mEPSP were not statistically independent, indicating a positive interaction between TDs that is reminiscent of the way subminiature signals group to form miniature signals at the neuromuscular junction. Depending on the duration and intensity of efferent stimulation, a complete block of AP initiation occurred either immediately or after a delay of a few seconds. Efferent stimulation did not significantly change AP threshold level, but abruptly decreased mEPSP frequency to a near-complete block that followed the block of APs. Maximum mEPSP rate of rise decreased during, and recovered progressively after, efferent stimulation. After termination of efferent stimulation, mEPSP amplitude did not recover instantly and for a few seconds the amplitude distribution of synaptic events showed fewer large-amplitude events than during the control period. This confirms that mEPSP amplitude and rate of rise properties, which are critical for triggering afferent APs, are modified by efferent activity. The depression of afferent AP firing during efferent stimulation corresponded to a decrease in mEPSP frequency and, to a lesser extent, a decrease in mEPSP amplitude and rate of rise, suggesting, a decrease in the level of interaction among TDs contibuting to a mEPSP.

Non-NASA Center↗

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Populations↗