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NASA NTRS2004

QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the mesosphere significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates near the equator a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m / s at 30 Ism. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanism, the relative importance of the linearized advection terms are discussed that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the d i d tide significant inter-annual variations. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m/s at 30 lan, As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, we discuss (a) the relative importance of the linearized advection terms that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide and (b) the effects momentum deposition from GWs filtered by the QBO.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Mechanism For Solar Forcing of Climate: Did the Maunder Minimum Cause the Little Ice Age?

The mechanism we wish to demonstrate exploits chemical, radiative, and dynamical sensitivities in the stratosphere to affect the climate of the troposphere. The sun, while its variability in total radiative output over the course of the solar cycle is on the order of 0.1%, exhibits variability in the UV output on the order of 5%. We expect to show that a substantially decreased solar UV output lessened the heating of the Earth's stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum, through decreased radiative absorption by ozone and oxygen. These changes in stratospheric heating would lead to major changes in the stratospheric zonal wind pattern which would in turn affect the propagation characteristics of planetary-scale waves launched in the winter hemisphere. Until recently, there was no quantitative data to relate the changes in the stratosphere to those at the surface. There is now empirical evidence from the NCEP Reanalysis data that a definitive effect of the solar cycle on climate in the troposphere exists. Our recent work is summarized as follows (see complete list of publications in later part of this report).

Yung, Yuk L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence

In several papers, the solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves. Salby and Callaghan (2000) analyzed the observed zonal winds of the QBO over more than 40 years and found that it contains a relatively large SC signature at 20 km. Following up on an earlier 2D study with our global-scale Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study with the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the amplitude of the relative variations of radiative forcing is taken to vary for simplicity from 0.2% at the surface to 2% at 50 km to 20% at 100 km and above. Covering a limited time span of 40 years, this model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to be related to the SC and is in qualitative agreement with the observations. Some of the energy in the QBO, confined to low latitudes primarily, is redistributed globally by the meridional circulation and planetary waves presumably, so that a measurable SC modulation is generated in the tropospheric temperatures of the polar regions. Further studies are needed, (1) to determine whether the effect is real and prevails in more extensive simulations and whether the results are robust when shorter integration steps are employed, and (2) to explore the mechanism(s) that may ample the apparent SC influence of the UV radiation extending into the lower atmosphere. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with or aid the SC effect.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Wave-driven Equatorial Annual Oscillation Induced and Modulated by the Solar Cycle

Our model for the solar cycle (SC) modulation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) produces a hemispherically symmetric 12-month Annual Oscillation (AO) in the zonal winds, which is confined to low latitudes. This Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO) is produced by interaction between the anti-symmetric component of SC forcing and the dominant anti-symmetric AO. The EA0 is amplified by the upward propagating small- scale gravity waves (GW), and the oscillation propagates down through the stratosphere like the QBO. The amplitude of the EA0 is relatively small, but its SC modulation contributes significantly to extend the effect to lower altitudes. Although the energy of the EA0 is concentrated at low latitudes, prominent signatures appear in the Polar Regions where the SC produces measurable temperature variations. At lower altitudes, the SC effects are significantly different in the two hemispheres because of the EAO, and due to its GW driven downward propagation the phase of the annual cycle is delayed.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence?

The solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW). Following up on a 2D study with our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study in which we simulated the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the relative amplitude of radiative forcing is taken to vary exponentially with height, i.e., 0.2% at the surface, 2% at 50 km, 20% at 100 km and above. Applying spectral analysis to filter out and identify the SC signature, this model produces a relatively large modulation in the QBO of the lower stratospheric circulation, which is in qualitative agreement with the results obtained by Salby and Callaghan (2000) who analyzed zonal wind observations covering more than 40 years. The modeled SC modulation of the QBO extends to high latitudes where it produces temperature variations of about 1 K in the troposphere below 10 km. We report that the SC also generates in the model a hemispherically symmetric Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO, with 12-month period) that is largely confined to low latitudes. Under the influence of the GWs, the SC modulated EA0 propagates down into the lower stratosphere like the QBO. As is the case for the QBO, the energy of this EA0 is partially redistributed by the meridional circulation and planetary waves, presumably, to generate measurable SC signatures in the tropospheric temperature of the polar regions, which may be related to the so called Arctic Oscillation (Thompson and Wallace, 1998). The larger SC influence at higher altitudes is apparently transferred to the lower and denser regions of the atmosphere by tapping the momentum from the upward propagating GWs that drive the oscillations. The SC modulation of the QBO period could prove to be very effective in this process, as our earlier 2D study indicated. Further studies are needed, (1) to make sure that the SC effects are real and the numerical results are robust, and (2) to explore more fully the mechanism(s) that may conspire to amplify the SC effect. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with, or aid, the SC influence.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Dynamical Changes Induced by the Very Large Solar Proton Events in October-November 2003

The very large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth and impacted the upper atmospheric polar cap regions. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Mode (TIME-GCM) was used to study the atmospheric dynamical influence of the solar protons that occurred in Oct-Nov 2003, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years. The highly energetic solar protons caused ionization and changes in the electric field, which led to Joule heating of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This heating led to temperature increases up to 4K in the upper mesosphere. The solar proton-induced ionization, as well as dissociation processes, led to the production of odd hydrogen (HO(x)) and odd nitrogen (NO(y)). Substantial (>40%) short-lived ozone decreases followed these enhancements of HO(x) and NO(y) and led to a cooling of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. This cooling led to temperature decreases up to 2.5K. The solar proton-caused temperature changes led to maximum meridional and zonal wind variations of +/- 2 m/s on background winds up to +/- 30 m/s. The solar proton-induced wind perturbations were computed to taper off over a period of several days past the SPEs. Solar cycle 23 was accompanied by ten very large SPEs between 1998 and 2005, along with numerous smaller events. These solar proton-driven atmospheric variations need to be carefully considered when examining other polar changes.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Coherent interannual and decadal variations inthe atmosphere-ocean system

We investigate the source of poleward propagating atmospheric zonal wind anomalies, originating at the equator and penetrating to high latitudes in both hemispheres in conjunction with ENSO [Dickey et al.,1992], and report the discovery of similar variability on decadal and longer timescales. Since atmospheric dissipation times are generally on the order of a month or less, we examine the ocean as a 'memory' source for these globally coherent anomalies. This hypothesis is substantiated by the observation of complementaryoscillation in the sea surface temperature (SST) field; further, we detect a robust decadal variability (~1012 yrs)in both the SST and contemporaneous atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) series. Analyzing GISST SST data beginning in 1902, we confirm this decadal mode and find signatures of longer (multidecadal) SST variability centered in the equatorial and North Pacific.

coherent decadal meridional↗
NASA NTRS1995

A high-resolution OGCM simulation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Part I: Long equatorial waves

A high resolution oceanic general circulation model of the three topical oceans is used to investigate long equatorial wave activity in the Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Zonal wind stress forcing and simulated dynamic height are interpreted using techniques previously applied to data. Kelvin and first Rossby waves are observed propagating during all the period. A seasonal cycle and interannual anomalies are computed for each long equatorial wave. The east Pacific basin is mainly dominated by seasonal cycle variations while strong interannual anomalies are observed west of the dateline. Long wave interannual anomalies are then compared to wave coefficients simulated by a simple wind-forced model. Our results outline the major role played by wind forcing on interannual time scales in generating long equatorial waves. However, near both eastern and western boundaries, some differences can be attributed to long wave reflections. A comparison to wave coefficients calculated from GEOSAT sea-level data gives some insight of the model behavior.

Long Equatorial Waves↗
NASA NTRS2005

Simulations of Dynamics and Transport during the September 2002 Antarctic Major Warming

A mechanistic model simulation initialized on 14 September 2002, forced by 100-hPa geopotential heights from Met Office analyses, reproduced the dynamical features of the 2002 Antarctic major warming. The vortex split on approx.25 September; recovery after the warming, westward and equatorward tilting vortices, and strong baroclinic zones in temperature associated with a dipole pattern of upward and downward vertical velocities were all captured in the simulation. Model results and analyses show a pattern of strong upward wave propagation throughout the warming, with zonal wind deceleration throughout the stratosphere at high latitudes before the vortex split, continuing in the middle and upper stratosphere and spreading to lower latitudes after the split. Three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm fluxes show the largest upward and poleward wave propagation in the 0(deg)-90(deg)E sector prior to the vortex split (coincident with the location of strongest cyclogenesis at the model's lower boundary), with an additional region of strong upward propagation developing near 180(deg)-270(deg)E. These characteristics are similar to those of Arctic wave-2 major warmings, except that during this warming, the vortex did not split below approx.600 K. The effects of poleward transport and mixing dominate modeled trace gas evolution through most of the mid- to high-latitude stratosphere, with a core region in the lower-stratospheric vortex where enhanced descent dominates and the vortex remains isolated. Strongly tilted vortices led to low-latitude air overlying vortex air, resulting in highly unusual trace gas profiles. Simulations driven with several meteorological datasets reproduced the major warming, but in others, stronger latitudinal gradients at high latitudes at the model boundary resulted in simulations without a complete vortex split in the midstratosphere. Numerous tests indicate very high sensitivity to the boundary fields, especially the wave-2 amplitude. Major warmings occurred for initial fields with stronger winds and larger vortices, but not smaller vortices, consistent with the initiation of wind-deceleration by upward-propagating waves near the poleward edge of the region where wave 2 can propagate above the jet core. Thus, given the observed 100-hPa boundary forcing, stratospheric preconditioning is not needed to reproduce a major warming similar to that observed. The anomalously strong forcing in the lower stratosphere can be viewed as the primary direct cause of the major warming.

winds↗
NASA NTRS2005

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change: Relative Importance of Low- and High-Latitude Temperature Changes - 2

Using a variety of GCM experiments with various versions of the GISS model, we investigate how different aspects of tropospheric climate changes affect the extratropical Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) circulation indices. The results show that low altitude changes in the extratropical latitudinal temperature gradient can have a strong impact on eddy forcing of the extratropical zonal wind, in the sense that when this latitudinal temperature gradient increases, it helps force a more negative AO/NAO phase. In addition, local conditions at high latitudes can stabilize/destabilize the atmosphere, inducing negative/positive phase changes. To the extent that there is not a large temperature change in the tropical upper troposphere (either through reduced tropical sensitivity at the surface, or limited transport of this change to high levels), the changes in the low level temperature gradient can provide the dominate influence on the extratropical circulation, so that planetary wave meridional refraction and eddy angular momentum transport changes become uncorrelated with potential vorticity transports. In particular, the climate change that produces the most positive NAO phase change would have substantial warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the Pacific Ocean, with high latitude warming in the North Atlantic. An increase in positive phase of these circulation indices is still more likely than not, but it will depend on the degree of tropical and high latitude temperature response and the transport of low level warming into the upper troposphere. These are aspects that currently differ among the models used for predicting the effects of global warning, contributing to the lack of consensus of future changes in the AO/NAO.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Identification of Stratospheric Waves in Ozone in the Tropics from OMI High Spectral Resolution Measurements

Previous studies using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) measurements have identified several types of tropical waves in the stratosphere. These waves include Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby-gravity waves, equatorial Rossby waves, and global normal modes. All of these detected waves occur when their zonal phase speeds are opposite the zonal winds in the low-mid stratosphere associated with the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). Peak-to-peak amplitudes in all cases are typically 5 DU. While total ozone data from TOMS is sensitive in detecting these tropical waves, they provide each day only a single horizontal cross-sectional map. The high spatial and spectral resolution of the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) provides a unique means to evaluate 3D structure in these waves including their propagation characteristics. Ozone profiles retrieved from OMI radiances for wavelengths 270-310 nm are utilized to examine the nature of these wave disturbances extending from the lower to upper stratosphere.

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

High-Latitude Stratospheric Sensitivity to QBO Width in a Chemistry-Climate Model with Parameterized Ozone Chemistry

In a pair of idealized simulations with a simplified chemistry-climate model, the sensitivity of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere to variability in the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is assessed. The width of the QBO appears to have equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the phase (i.e. the Holton-Tan mechanism). In the model, a wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO, where zonal winds at 60 N tend to be relatively weaker, while 50 hPa geopotential heights and polar ozone values tend to be higher.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Ten-Year Climatology of Summertime Diurnal Rainfall Rate Over the Conterminous U.S.

Diurnal cycles of summertime rainfall rates are examined over the conterminous United States, using radar-gauge assimilated hourly rainfall data. As in earlier studies, rainfall diurnal composites show a well-defined region of rainfall propagation over the Great Plains and an afternoon maximum area over the south and eastern portion of the United States. Zonal phase speeds of rainfall in three different small domains are estimated, and rainfall propagation speeds are compared with background zonal wind speeds. Unique rainfall propagation speeds in three different regions can be explained by the evolution of latent-heat theory linked to the convective available potential energy, than by gust-front induced or gravity wave propagation mechanisms.

Matsui, Toshihisa↗
NASA NTRS2009

On the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on Changes in the Stratospheric Mean Age

A common feature of stratospheric simulations of the past or future is an increase in tropical upwelling and a decrease in mean age. Possible causes or these changes include (1) increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) driven by increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), (2) the direct radiative effect of increases in WMGHGs, and (3) changes in ozone. Here we examine a suite of simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM) to isolate the relative role of these three factors. Our analysis indicates that all three factors cause changes in the mean age, but the relative impact of each factor depends on the time period analyzed. Over the past 30-40 years ozone depletion is the major factor causing the decrease in mean age, with negligible changes due to direct radiative impact of WMGHG's. However, ozone is predicted to recover back to 1970 levels during the next 50-60 years, and this causes an increase in the mean age, whereas the continued increase in SSTs from increased levels of WMGHGs and the direct radiative impact of WMGHGs will still cause a decrease in the mean age. The net impact of these factors will still result in a decreasing mean age although the rate will be smaller than that of the past. The decreases in mean age are primarily caused by increases in upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere. The increased upwelling from both increased tropical SSTs and polar ozone loss appears to be related to changes in zonal winds and increases in wave activity propagating into the stratosphere. The different contributions of changes in SSTs, WMGHGs, and ozone to the circulation of the stratosphere may help explain the large spread in the rate of change of tropical upwelling seen in previous studies.

Oman, Luke↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Analysis of the Environments of Intense Convective Systems in West Africa in 2003

We investigated the local- and regional-scale thermodynamical and dynamical environments associated with intense convective systems in West Africa during 2003. We identified convective system cases from TRMM microwave imagery, classifying each case by the system minimum 85-GHz brightness temperature and by the estimated elapsed time of propagation from high terrain. The speed of the mid-level jet, the magnitude of the low-level shear, and the surface equivalent potential temperature (theta(sub e)) were greater for the intense cases compared to the non-intense cases, although the differences between the means tended to be small, less than 3K for surface theta(sub e). Hypothesis testing of a series of commonly used intensity prediction metrics resulted in significant results only for low-level metrics such as convective available potential energy and not for any of the mid- or upper-level metrics such as 700-hPa theta(sub e). None of the environmental variables or intensity metrics by themselves or in combination appeared to be reliable direct predictors of intensity. In the regional scale analysis, the majority of intense convective systems occurred in the surface baroclinic zone where surface theta(sub e) exceeded 344 K and the 700-hPa zonal wind speeds were less than -6/ms. Fewer intense cases compared to non-intense cases were associated with African easterly wave troughs. Fewer than 25% of our cases occurred in environments with detectable Saharan dust loads, and the results for intense and non-intense cases were similar. Our results for the regional analysis were consistent with the seasonal movement of the WAM and the intertropical front, regional differences in topography, and AEW energetics.

Nicholls, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Investigation of Jupiter's Equatorial Hotspots and Plumes Using Cassini ISS Observations

We present updated analysis of Jupiter's equatorial meteorology from Cassini observations. For two months preceding the spacecraft's closest approach, the ISS onboard regularly imaged the atmosphere. We created time-lapse movies from this period in order to analyze the dynamics of equatorial 5-micron hot spots and their interactions with adjacent latitudes. Hot spots are quasi-stable, rectangular dark areas on visible-wavelength images, with defined eastern edges that sharply contrast with surrounding clouds, but a diffuse western edge serving as a nebulous boundary with adjacent equatorial plumes. Hot spots exhibit significant variations in size and shape over timescales of days and weeks. Some of these changes correspond with passing vortex systems from adjacent latitudes interacting with hot spots. Strong anticyclonic gyres present to the south and southeast of the dark areas appear to circulate into hot spots. Impressive, bright white plumes occupy spaces in between hot spots. Compact cirrus-iike 'scooter' clouds flow rapidly through the plumes before disappearing within the dark areas. This raises the possibility that the plumes and fast-moving clouds are at higher altitudes, because their speed does not match previously published zonal wind profiles. Most profiles represent the drift speed of the hot spots at their latitude from pattern matching of the entire longitudinal image strip. If a downward branch of an equatorially-trapped Rossby waves controls the overall appearance of hot spots, however, the westward phase velocity of the wave leads to underestimates of the true jet stream speed. Instead, our expanded data set demonstrating the rapid flow of these scooter clouds may be more illustrative of the actual jet stream speed at these latitudes. This research was supported by a NASA JDAP grant and the NASA Postdoctoral Program.

Choi, David S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Meteorology of Jupiter's Equatorial Hot Spots and Plumes from Cassini

We present an updated analysis of Jupiter's equatorial meteorology from Cassini observations. For two months preceding the spacecraft's closest approach, the Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) onboard regularly imaged the atmosphere. We created time-lapse movies from this period in order to analyze the dynamics of equatorial hot spots and their interactions with adjacent latitudes. Hot spots are relatively cloud-free regions that emit strongly at 5 lm; improved knowledge of these features is crucial for fully understanding Galileo probe measurements taken during its descent through one. Hot spots are quasistable, rectangular dark areas on visible-wavelength images, with defined eastern edges that sharply contrast with surrounding clouds, but diffuse western edges serving as nebulous boundaries with adjacent equatorial plumes. Hot spots exhibit significant variations in size and shape over timescales of days and weeks. Some of these changes correspond with passing vortex systems from adjacent latitudes interacting with hot spots. Strong anticyclonic gyres present to the south and southeast of the dark areas appear to circulate into hot spots. Impressive, bright white plumes occupy spaces in between hot spots. Compact cirrus-like 'scooter' clouds flow rapidly through the plumes before disappearing within the dark areas. These clouds travel at 150-200 m/s, much faster than the 100 m/s hot spot and plume drift speed. This raises the possibility that the scooter clouds may be more illustrative of the actual jet stream speed at these latitudes. Most previously published zonal wind profiles represent the drift speed of the hot spots at their latitude from pattern matching of the entire longitudinal image strip. If a downward branch of an equatorially-trapped Rossby wave controls the overall appearance of hot spots, however, the westward phase velocity of the wave leads to underestimates of the true jet stream speed.

Jupitor's Equatorial Zone↗