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DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic neutrino decoupling and its observable imprints: insights from entropic-dual transport

Abstract Very different processes characterize the decoupling of neutrinos to form the cosmic neutrino background (CνB) and the much later decoupling of photons from thermal equilibrium to form the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The CνB emerges from the fuzzy, energy-dependent neutrinosphere and encodes the physics operating in the early universe in the temperature rangeT∼ 10 MeV toT∼ 10 keV. This is the epoch where beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics, especially in the neutrino sector, may be influential in setting the light element abundances, the necessarily distorted fossil neutrino energy spectra, and other light particle energy density contributions. Here we use techniques honed in extensive CMB studies to analyze the CνB as calculated in detailed neutrino energy transport and nuclear reaction simulations of the protracted weak decoupling and primordial nucleosynthesis epochs. Our moment method, relative entropy, and differential visibility approach can leverage future high precision CMB and light element primordial abundance measurements to provide new insights into the CνB and any BSM physics it encodes. We demonstrate that the evolution of the energy spectrum of the CνB throughout the weak decoupling epoch is accurately captured in the Standard Model by only three parameters per species, a non-trivial conclusion given the deviation from thermal equilibrium and the impact of the decrease of electron-positron pairs. Furthermore, we can interpret each of the three parameters as physical characteristics of a non-equilibrium system. Though the treatment presented here makes some simplifying assumptions including ignoring neutrino flavor oscillations, the success of our compact description within the Standard Model motivates its use also in BSM scenarios. We further demonstrate how observations of primordial light element abundances can be used to place constraints on the CνB energy spectrum, deriving response functions that can be applied for general deviations from a thermal spectrum. Combined with the description of those deviations that we develop here, our methods provide a convenient and powerful framework to constrain the impact of BSM physics on the CνB.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accessing bands with extended quantum metric in kagome Cs 2 Ni 3 S 4 through soft chemical processing

Flat bands that do not merely arise from weak interactions can produce exotic physical properties, such as superconductivity or correlated many-body effects. The quantum metric can differentiate whether flat bands will result in correlated physics or are merely dangling bonds. A potential avenue for achieving correlated flat bands involves leveraging geometrical constraints within specific lattice structures, such as the kagome lattice; however, materials are often more complex. In these cases, quantum geometry becomes a powerful indicator of the nature of bands with small dispersions. We present a simple, soft-chemical processing route to access a flat band with an extended quantum metric below the Fermi level. By oxidizing Ni-kagome material Cs 2 Ni 3 S 4 to CsNi 3 S 4 , we see a two orders of magnitude drop in the room temperature resistance. However, CsNi 3 S 4 is still insulating, with no evidence of a phase transition. Using experimental data, density functional theory calculations, and symmetry analysis, our results suggest the emergence of a correlated insulating state of unknown origin.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of Composition and Oxidation States on the Structures of Chromium-Containing Sodium Silicate Glasses: Molecular Dynamics Simulations using Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Chromium represents a significant challenge for the vitrification of high-level nuclear waste into silicate and borosilicate glasses due to its low solubility and variable oxidation states, which can limit the waste loading due to promotion of crystallization or phase separation during processing. In this study, we modeled chromium containing silicate glasses using molecular dynamics simulations with three machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs), MACE, CHGNet, and PFP were employed, to gain insights on glass composition and oxidation states on the structures of these glasses. One of the goals is to evaluate their ability of these MLIPs to accurately represent the general structure of silicate glasses and chromium local environments as a function of chromium oxidation states. Density Functional Theory (DFT) based calculations and experimental data such as neutron structure factors were used to validate the structural models. It was found that the foundation models of all three MLIPs are able to reproduce general structural features of the sodium silicate glass structure consistent with experimental and DFT data, but only CHGNet and PFP can accurately capture the oxidation states and local environment of chromium: tetrahedral for Cr6+ and octahedral for Cr3+. Furthermore, we studied the effect of varying Cr3+/ Cr6+ (Cr3+/Crtotal) ratio and total chromium content using PFP. Our results show that Cr6+ enhances network polymerization by reducing non-bridging oxygens through Na? charge compensation required due to the formation of chromate (CrO42-) species, while Cr³? acts as a network modifier that disrupts connectivity. System size effects on the structural characteristics and chromium environments were also tested using the PFP potential. This work highlights the importance of careful validation on the precision, transferability, and potential of MLIPs for modeling glasses containing transition metal elements that can exist in multiple oxidation states. It is also encouraging to see the foundational models are all three MLFFs are able to reproduce the basic sodium silicate glass structures, while suggesting additional training or refining is needed to improve the description of more complex systems containing transition metals.

Puga, Christina L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Data-Driven Method for Modeling Creep-Fatigue Stress- Strain Behavior Using Neural ODEs

In this paper, we introduce a data-driven machine learning approach for modeling one-dimensional stress–strain behavior under cyclic loading, utilizing experimental data from the nickel-based Alloy 617. The study employs uniaxial creep–fatigue test data acquired under various loading histories and compares two distinct neural network-based ODE models. The first model, known as the black-box model, comprehensively describes the strain–stress relationship using a Neural ODE equation. To interpret this black-box model, we apply the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (SINDy) technique, transforming the black-box model into an equation-based model using symbolic regression. The second model, the Neural flow rule model, incorporates Hooke’s Law for the linear elastic component, with the nonlinear part characterized by a Neural ODE. Both models are trained with experimental data to accurately reflect the observed stress–strain behavior. We conduct a detailed comparison with the standard Chaboche model, which includes three back stresses. Our results demonstrate that the neural network-based ODE models precisely capture the experimental creep–fatigue mechanical behavior, exceeding the standard Chaboche model’s accuracy. Furthermore, an interpretable model derived from the black-box neural ODE model through symbolic regression achieves accuracy comparable to the Chaboche model, enhancing its interpretability. The results highlight the potential of neural network-based ODE models to depict complex creep–fatigue behavior, eliminating the necessity for experts to define a specific, material-focused model form.

creep-fatigue↗

DOE OSTI2026

An integrated in-situ coordination strategy enabling high-performance layered cathodes for sodium-ion batteries

O3-type layered transition metal oxide cathodes hold tremendous potential in sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) due to their low cost and high energy density. However, the structure instability associated with detrimental phase transitions and severe interface parasitic reactions exacerbate the material's electrochemical performance degradation. Herein, we develop an integrated in-situ coordination strategy via heteroatomic modulation inducing coherent epitaxial layer to collaboratively enhance the overall framework robustness from surface to bulk. The theoretical calculation and multiple in/ex-situ characterizations demonstrate the charge density around oxygen is redistributed, which promotes the electron localization, thus widening the NaO 2 lattice space and accelerating the Na + transport dynamics. Furthermore, the formed strengthened oxygen bond energy effectively distributes the long-range coordination of Mn 3+ O 6 octahedron, thereby alleviating Jahn-Teller distortion and local stress. Importantly, the in-situ formed conformal buffer layer dramatically relieves the adverse interface side reactions, facilitating the construction of robust cathode-electrolyte interface, which ameliorate the whole structure stability of designed materials. Consequently, the optimized NFMZ@NZO-1.0 exhibits the excellent cycling stability with 80.2% capacity retention after 300 cycles at 1C, and delivers a high discharge capacity of 107.1 mAh g −1 at 10C. In conclusion, this distinctive coupling strategy provides valuable insights for developing high-performance layered cathode materials in SIBs.

Coherent epitaxial layer↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Coherence Limits in Superconducting Quantum Systems for Computing and Sensing

This talk will highlight recent efforts at the SQMS Center to develop qudit-based quantum computing architectures using superconducting three-dimensional (3D) cavities, as well as the use of these ultra-coherent cavities for quantum sensing. I will present systematic studies of materials and devices aimed at identifying and mitigating the dominant sources of decoherence—including two-level systems (TLS), quasiparticles, and other noise mechanisms—in both transmons and 3D cavities. These investigations include microwave loss characterization of niobium, tantalum, aluminum, their native oxides, and substrate materials such as silicon and sapphire. By combining measurements on qubits and cavities, we disentangle subsystem-specific loss mechanisms and establish a hierarchy of mitigation strategies, leading to transmon coherence times exceeding one millisecond. I will also discuss studies of quasiparticle dynamics, including quasiparticle bursts observed in qubits operated both above ground and at the Gran Sasso underground laboratory, and the observation that applied magnetic fields can suppress temporal T₁ fluctuations. Building on these advances, we demonstrate a record-coherence two-cell cavity-qudit system with coherence times exceeding 20 milliseconds. Leveraging tunable sideband interactions together with error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based error correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity quantum state control, including the preparation of Fock states up to N=20 with fidelities above 95% and the generation of high-fidelity two-mode entangled states. Finally, I will discuss how these ultra-coherent quantum systems are enabling emerging quantum sensing applications, including searches for dark matter and gravitational waves.

Roy, Tanay [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000019442862X)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Complex orders and chirality in the classical Kitaev-Γ model

It is well recognized that the low-energy physics of many Kitaev materials is governed by two dominant energy scales, the Ising-type Kitaev coupling 𝐾 and the symmetric off-diagonal Γ coupling. An understanding of the interplay between these two scales is therefore the natural starting point toward a quantitative description that includes subdominant perturbations that are inevitably present in real materials. This study focuses on the classical 𝐾−Γ model on the honeycomb lattice, with a specific emphasis on the region 𝐾< 0 and Γ > 0 , which is the most relevant for the available materials and which remains enigmatic in both quantum and classical limits, despite much effort. We employ large-scale Monte Carlo simulations on specially designed finite-size clusters and unravel the presence of a complex multisublattice magnetic order in a wide region of the phase diagram, whose structure is characterized in detail. We show that this order can be quantified in terms of a coarse-grained scalar-chirality order, featuring a counterrotating modulation on the two spin sublattices. Here, we also provide a comparison to previous studies and discuss the impact of quantum fluctuations on the phase diagram.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dirac Fermions and Flat Bands in Phosphorus Carbide Nanotubes: Structural and Quantum Phase Transitions in a Quasi-One-Dimensional Material

Chemically realistic quasi-one-dimensional (1D) materials in which Dirac Fermions and highly degenerate flat bands coexist intrinsically at the Fermi level are exceedingly rare, while representing a highly desirable platform for correlated and topological quantum phenomena. Here, in this work, using specialized symmetry-adapted first-principles calculations we predict a new class of nanomaterials─phosphorus carbide nanotubes (P 2 C 3 NTs)─obtained by rolling monolayer P 2 C 3 , a two-dimensional material shown in a previous letter to host “double Kagome bands”. Both armchair and zigzag P 2 C 3 NTs are stable at room temperature and feature the rare coexistence of Dirac crossings and multiple flat bands at the Fermi level inherited from the underlying honeycomb–Kagome lattice, with the flat bands resilient to elastic deformations. Under large strain, the structure transforms from honeycomb–Kagome to “brick-wall”, accompanied by multiple coupled structural and quantum phase transitions. We also uncover localized edge states, spin splitting from vacancies and dopants, and strain-tunable magnetism. Together, these results establish P 2 C 3 NTs as a chemically specific and mechanically tunable 1D material platform with potential applications in quantum hardware and spintronics.

carbon nanotubes↗

DOE OSTI2026

Entropy-defect synergy for dual luminescence mechanism in spinel: Time-resolved anti-counterfeiting and fingerprint visualization

Multimodal luminescent materials, while promising for anti-counterfeiting, often lack dynamic time-dependent responses and controllable spatial distribution, limiting their encryption capabilities in the spatiotemporal dimension. Here, this work presents a coordinated control strategy based on entropy and defect engineering, and uses a backpropagation (BP) neural network for material screening to successfully prepare spinel Mg 0.8 (Fe 0.04 Co 0.04 Ni 0.04 Cu 0.04 Zn 0.04 )Cr 2 O 4 (MgA 5 CO) phosphors with time-dependent dynamic luminescence behavior. This phosphor simultaneously activated the d-d transition luminescence (∼618 nm) derived from Co 2+ /Cr 3+ and the defect luminescence (∼398 nm) related to zinc vacancies (V Zn ) in a single-phase solid solution. The phosphor exhibits a time-dependent color evolution from pink to purple under fixed-wavelength excitation, due to the different excited-state dynamics and decay lifetimes associated with the d-d transition and defect luminescence. Structural characterization and spectral analysis confirmed the existence of V Zn and its significant role in defect luminescence process. The fluorescent and dynamic luminescent properties of entropy-based spinel oxide enable its use in advanced anti-counterfeiting applications like fingerprint recognition and color-changing dedicated anti-counterfeiting mark, showing promise in high-end and time-dynamic anti-counterfeiting fields. This research not only developed a new type of fluorescent dynamic anti-counterfeiting material, but also provided a new idea for constructing advanced optical functional materials with multiple luminescence mechanisms.

Defect project↗

DOE OSTI2023

Self‐Propelling Macroscale Sheets Powered by Enzyme Pumps

Nanoscale enzymes anchored to surfaces act as chemical pumps by converting chemical energy released from enzymatic reactions into spontaneous fluid flow that propels entrained nano‐ and microparticles. Enzymatic pumps are biocompatible, highly selective, and display unique substrate specificity. Utilizing these pumps to trigger self‐propelled motion on the macroscale has, however, constituted a significant challenge and thus prevented their adaptation in macroscopic fluidic devices and soft robotics. Using experiments and simulations, we herein show that enzymatic pumps can drive centimeter‐scale polymer sheets along directed linear paths and rotational trajectories. In these studies, the sheets are confined to the air/water interface. With the addition of appropriate substrate, the asymmetric enzymatic coating on the sheets induces chemically driven, buoyancy flows that controllably propel the sheet's motion on the air/water interface. The directionality and speed of the motion can be tailored by changing the pattern of the enzymatic coating, type of enzyme, and nature and concentration of the substrate. This work highlights the utility of biocompatible enzymes for generating motion in macroscale fluidic devices and robotics and indicates their potential utility for in vivo applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Peptoid-Based Nanosheets Exhibiting Broad Antiviral Activity Against Enveloped RNA Viruses

Enveloped RNA viruses, such as Influenza A (H1N1) and Sindbis virus, pose persistent global health threats due to their high mutation rates, efficient transmission, and frequent drug resistance. By mimicking host cell membrane receptors, multivalent virus inhibitors can block viral attachment, making them promising broad-spectrum antiviral agents. However, most of existing antivirals are often limited by strain specificity, short-lived efficacy, and toxicity. Here, we introduce a broad-spectrum antiviral platform based on highly tunable and biocompatible two-dimensional nanomembranes (2DNMs) self-assembled from amphiphilic peptoids, operating via a non-genomic, mutation-insensitive mechanism. By varying peptoid sequence, we design and synthesize over twenty different 2DNMs with various surface charge and high density of viral-attachment ligands (VALs). The self-assembled architecture of these stable 2DNMs provides cooperative noncovalent multivalent binding to virus particles that result in effective inhibition of viral infection. Screening of variants identified three leads that potently suppressed Influenza A (H1N1) and Sindbis virus infection across median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50), plaque, RT–qPCR, and immunofluorescence assays, while maintaining >90% cell viability. These nanosheets significantly reduced infectious titers, viral RNA replication, and intracellular viral protein expression, indicating inhibition at early stages of viral entry and propagation. The sequence programmability, chemical robustness, and mutation-insensitive antiviral activity distinguish 2DNMs from traditional antivirals and positions them as a versatile materials platform for antiviral coatings, protective barriers, and prophylactic biomedical applications.

Influenza A virus↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nonlinear Loss Engineering in Near‐Zero‐Index Bulk Materials

Transparent conducting oxides (TCOs) show unprecedented optical nonlinearities in the near infrared wavelength range, where the real part of their linear refractive index approaches zero. More specifically, the Kerr nonlinearities of these materials have sparked widespread attention due to their magnitude and speed. However, due to the absorptive nature of these nonlinear processes, it is of fundamental interest to further investigate the imaginary component of the nonlinear index. The present work studies the nonlinear optical absorption properties of aluminium‐doped zinc oxide (AZO) thin films in their near‐zero‐index (NZI) spectral window. It is found that the imaginary part of the refractive index is reduced under optical excitation such that the field penetration depth more than doubles. An optically induced shift of the NZI bandwidth of ≈120 nm for a pump intensity of 1.3 TW cm −2 is also demonstrated. Looking into the optically induced spectral redistribution of the probe signal, local net gain is recorded, which is ascribed to a nonlinear adiabatic energy transfer. The present study adds key information about the fundamental interplay between real and imaginary nonlinear indices in NZI media, while advancing parametric amplification as viable direction for loss compensation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hund's coupling governed orbital-selective superconductivity in Ba 1−𝑥 ⁢K 𝑥⁢ Fe 2 ⁢As 2

Understanding how strong electronic correlations shape superconductivity remains a central challenge in quantum materials. In multiorbital systems, correlations driven by Hund's coupling can differentiate the behavior of individual orbitals, producing the so-called Hund's metal state. How such orbital-selectivity also governs superconducting pairing, however, has remained largely unexplored experimentally. Here, in this study, we use high-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy to systematically map the superconducting gap structure across the phase diagram of the representative iron-based superconductor Ba 1−x K x Fe 2 As 2 . We find that superconductivity evolves in a strongly orbital-dependent manner: the gap associated with the d xy orbital collapses beyond optimal doping while pairing on the d xz /d yz orbitals persists. This behavior mirrors the orbital-selective correlations observed in the normal state and reveals a direct connection between Hund's metal physics and the superconducting pairing landscape. Our results demonstrate that superconducting gaps themselves can serve as a sensitive probe of orbital-dependent correlations and suggest that Hund's coupling plays a central role in shaping pairing in multiorbital superconductors.

Corbae, Elena [SLAC National Accelerator Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reduced fast-ion transport calculations of m = n = 1 fishbone-like instabilities in MAST-U

Fast-ion transport associated with an m = n = 1 fishbone-like burst in MAST-U discharge 47128 is investigated using a reduced guiding-center-based transport model (ORBIT-Kick) constrained by multi-diagnostic measurements. The two-dimensional beam-emission spectroscopy system provides measurements of the core poloidal mode structure and fluctuation amplitude, while EFIT++ reconstructions constrained by the motional Stark effect diagnostic indicate a flat q-profile with q 0 > 1⁠, indicating the absence of a resonant q = 1 surface and supporting a pressure-driven infernal-mode interpretation. Analytic m = n = 1 displacement profiles consistent with the measured core mode structure and equilibrium constraints are used as the mode structure inputs to ORBIT-Kick. The calculations show that the dominant resonances occur between the mode and co-passing fast ions, producing redistribution localized near the magnetic axis. Synthetic neutron camera signals from TRANSP-Kick recover up to 90% of the experimentally observed neutron deficit at the time of peak mode amplitude, indicating that the measured m = n = 1 mode is a dominant contributor to core fast-ion transport. However, the synthetic neutron signals recover rapidly, whereas the measured neutron emission continues to decrease after the peak amplitude. In conclusion, the remaining discrepancy may arise from contributions not included in the present single-harmonic model, including higher-m and higher-n harmonics, multi-harmonic interactions, and additional transport mechanisms, motivating future diagnostic development and modeling efforts to resolve and incorporate these additional contributions.

Wong, Henry H. [University of California, Los Ange↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electrostatic‐Attraction‐Driven Self‐Assembled Graphene‐Disordered Rocksalt Composite Cathode for Lithium‐Ion Batteries

Disordered rocksalt cathodes hold promise for achieving high-capacity lithium-ion batteries while using low-cost, earth-abundant elements. However, their electrochemical performance remains critically limited by their poor electronic conductivity. Conventional strategies such as high-energy ball milling with excess carbon additives can improve conductivity but remain challenging to scale and often produce defects and increase surface area, thereby accelerating capacity degradation. Herein, we report an alternative approach of electrostatic-attraction-driven self-assembly to fabricate Li 1.2 Mn 0.6 Ti 0.2 O 1.8 F 0.2 (LMTOF) particles uniformly wrapped with electronically conductive graphene sheets without associated materials degradation. The graphene-wrapped LMTOF demonstrates significantly improved cycling stability (89% capacity retention after 100 cycles) and superior rate capability compared with an LMTOF-carbon composite electrode fabricated using the conventional high-energy ball-milling process. Post-cycling analysis reveals reduced oxygen evolution, suppressed unwanted side reactions, and improved structural integrity for the graphene-LMTOF composite. This work highlights the advantages of solution-based carbon wrapping and offers a scalable strategy to prepare high-performance DRX cathodes for lithium-ion batteries.

carbon composite↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tautomerism induces bending and twisting of biogenic crystals

Understanding and exploiting material flexibility through phenomena such as the bending and twisting of molecular crystals has been a subject of increased interest owing to the number of applications that benefit from these properties, such as optoelectronics, mechanophotonics, soft robotics, and smart sensors. Here, we report the growth of spontaneously bent and twisted ammonium urate crystals induced by the keto–enol tautomerism of the urate molecule. The major tautomer is native to biogenic crystals, whereas the minor tautomer functions as an effective crystal growth modifier to induce naturally bent and twisted ammonium urate crystals. We show that the degree of curvature can be tailored based on the judicious selection of growth conditions. A combination of state-of-the-art microscopy and spectroscopy techniques are used to characterize the origin of bending. Spatially resolved nano-electron diffraction and high-resolution electron microscopy of naturally bent crystals show nearly single crystallinity with local lattice deformations generated by a combination of screw and edge dislocations. These observations are consistent with photoinduced force microscopy and contact resonance atomic force microscopy, which confirmed spatially resolved changes in the intermolecular interactions and the mechanical properties throughout the cross-sectional and axial regions of bent crystals. A mechanism of bending involving the generation of regionally specific dislocations is proposed as an alternative to more commonly reported models. These findings highlight a unique characteristic of tautomeric crystals that may have broader implications for other biogenic materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scaling Demand Flexibility: Building on 30 Years of Energy Efficiency Success

With electricity consumption across the United States (US) and Canada anticipated to grow, energy efficiency program administrators have a key role to play in helping to ensure energy affordability and reliability in support of the broader economic systems utilities and grid support. Connected, demand side load balancing solutions, such as load shifting heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and managed charging for electric vehicles (EVs), can dynamically manage energy, allowing for more volumetric electricity consumption without incurring the expense of upgraded transmission and distribution capabilities. When combined, or aggregated, many small loads can be managed to have meaningful impact on energy demand on the grid. Utilities and their partners have an opportunity to leverage decades of experience and the infrastructure needed to assess, design, implement, and measure programs to scale up the adoption of equipment with built-in load flexibility capabilities. Current efforts among a wide variety of electricity system service providers, utilities, standards agencies, regulators, national labs and private industry stakeholders aim to identify common standards, metrics, and methodologies for valuing grid services offered by demand side equipment. By combining those efforts with decades of proven energy efficiency resources, utilities are poised to effectuate a scaling up of equipment with energy management capabilities installed in homes and businesses across the US and Canada. This paper will provide an overview of how utilities are approaching this era of load growth and new peak demands across the United States and Canada. It will highlight the specific strategies that program administrators are employing to advance market transformation for grid-enabled products and devices that have the greatest potential to reduce energy use and increase load flexibility.

Grant, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗