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Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)

For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Tiered Energy Use in Buildings (TEB)

This tool creates a set of building energy simulations and organizes them according to a tier-based model representing circuits that will be on or off depending on a microgrid controller (not included in this software). This Python based code uses the open-source RCBuildingSimulator that is under an amended MIT license. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-2528 O

Villa, Daniel↗

Transformative Efficiency and Automation in Modular Homes (TEAMH)

This report documents the Transformative Efficiency and Automation in Modular Homes (TEAMH) project, which evaluates the integration of advanced building envelope technologies and automation-assisted modular construction to improve residential energy performance and construction efficiency. The study investigates high-performance insulation systems, including vacuum insulation panels (VIPs), combined with light gauge steel (LGS) modular construction and factory automation. Laboratory testing, whole-building energy modeling across multiple climate zones, and factory demonstrations were conducted to assess thermal performance, energy savings, and production efficiency. Results indicate that upgraded envelope assemblies can achieve up to ~50% heating and ~34% cooling energy savings relative to IECC 2018 code-compliant homes, while automation-assisted construction can reduce wall assembly time by 24%–46% compared to conventional wood framing. The findings demonstrate the potential for scalable, high-performance modular homes that deliver significant energy savings with competitive projected costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Realistic Cost to Execute Practical Quantum Circuits using Direct Clifford+T Lattice Surgery Compilation

We report a resource estimation pipeline that explicitly compiles quantum circuits expressed using the Clifford+T gate set into a surface code lattice surgery instruction set. The cadence of magic state requests from the compiled circuit enables the optimization of magic state distillation and storage requirements in a post-hoc analysis. To compile logical circuits into lattice surgery operations, we build upon the open-source Lattice Surgery Compiler. The revised compiler operates in two stages: the first translates logical gates into an abstract, layout-independent instruction set; the second compiles these into local lattice surgery instructions that are allocated to hardware tiles according to a specified resource layout. The second stage retains logical parallelism while avoiding resource contention in the fault-tolerant layer, aiding realism. Additionally, users can specify dedicated tiles at which magic states are replenished, enabling resource costs from the logical computation to be considered independently from magic state distillation and storage. We demonstrate the applicability of our pipeline to large practical quantum circuits by providing resource estimates for the ground state estimation of molecules. Finally, we find that variable magic state consumption rates in real circuits can cause the resource costs of magic state storage to dominate unless production is varied to suit.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of Building 23-620, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory J-3 Office, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-620, the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) J-3 Office Building (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15283) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The NNSA/NFO is implementing a long-term project to modernize the town of Mercury for future mission needs. The project is considered an undertaking subject to review under Title 54 of United States Code (USC) § 306108, commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, Title 54 USC § 300101, et seq., and its implementing regulations, Title 36 of the Code of Federal Regulations (36 CFR) Part 800. In 2018, Desert Research Institute (DRI) completed an architectural survey of the town of Mercury. This effort resulted in the identification, recordation, and evaluation of the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230), including the identification of its contributing elements (Reno et al. 2018). The MHD was recommended eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP, National Register) under the Secretary of the Interior’s (SOI) Significance Criteria A and C, as defined in 36 CFR Part 60.4, as a significant concentration of buildings and structures with a direct and important association with Cold War-era nuclear testing from 1951 through 1992. It has not been evaluated under Criteria B and D to date. As part of a larger modernization program for Mercury, the NNSA/NFO and the SHPO executed the 2018 Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada (Mercury PA). The Mercury PA includes streamlined Section 106 procedures for undertakings in the MHD based on contributing element categories. Building 23-620 is identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element, indicating that it might be individually eligible for the NRHP. It is a historic property for the purposes of Section 106 compliance and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. Per Stipulation VI of the Mercury PA, when the Area of Potential Effect (APE) for an undertaking includes Category I elements, the NNSA/NFO must evaluate the Category I elements for individual NRHP eligibility under all of the SOI Significance Criteria prior to initiating any activity that may affect the elements. The purpose of this report is to evaluate Building 23-620 as a potential individually eligible historic property in fulfillment of Stipulation VI of the Mercury PA. The evaluation detailed herein concludes that Building 23-620 is not individually eligible for listing in the NRHP. Although it retains aspects of integrity and continues to contribute to the MHD, it is not individually significant under any of the SOI Significance Criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Building 23-702, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory H-8 Foil Handling Building, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-702, the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) H-8 Foil Handling Building (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15278) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The NNSA/NFO is implementing a long-term project to modernize the town of Mercury for future mission needs. The project is considered an undertaking subject to review under Title 54 of United States Code (USC) § 306108, commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, Title 54 USC § 300101, et seq., and its implementing regulations, Title 36 of the Code of Federal Regulations (36 CFR) Part 800. In 2018, Desert Research Institute (DRI) completed an architectural survey of the town of Mercury. This effort resulted in the identification, recordation, and evaluation of the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230), including the identification of its contributing elements (Reno et al. 2018). The MHD was recommended eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP, National Register) under the Secretary of the Interior’s (SOI) Significance Criteria A and C, as defined in 36 CFR Part 60.4, as a significant concentration of buildings and structures with a direct and important association with Cold War-era nuclear testing from 1951 through 1992. As part of the modernization program for Mercury, the NNSA/NFO and the SHPO executed the 2018 Programmatic Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada (Mercury PA). The Mercury PA includes streamlined Section 106 procedures for undertakings in the MHD based on contributing element categories. Building 23-702 is identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element, indicating that it might be individually eligible for the NRHP. It is a historic property for the purposes of Section 106 compliance and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. Per Stipulation VI of the Mercury PA, when the Area of Potential Effect (APE) for an undertaking includes Category I elements, the NNSA/NFO must evaluate the Category I elements for individual NRHP eligibility under all of the SOI Significance Criteria prior to initiating any activity that may affect the elements. The purpose of this report is to evaluate Building 23-702 as a potential individually eligible historic property in fulfillment of Stipulation VI of the Mercury PA. The evaluation detailed herein concludes that Building 23-702 is not individually eligible for listing in the NRHP. Although it retains aspects of integrity and continues to contribute to the MHD, it is not individually significant under any of the SOI Significance Criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of MCNP, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results analysis methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Methodology for Thermodynamic Analysis Coupled with Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for Casting a Novel Aluminum–Cerium Alloy

In this paper, we present the results of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to assess castability, porosity, molten metal fluidity and other technological properties of a new Al-Ce alloy. A thermodynamic analysis of a new Al-Ce alloy is done to obtain the physical properties as a function of temperature across both solid and liquid phases. These properties are then used to build the CFD of model the full casting process from initial pouring through to final solidification of the part, here an example of a heavy duty mor mount is used. While several excellent commercial CFD codes exists this process shows that CFD can be used to assess the capability of the alloy to properly fill the mold, as well as give predictions where scattered porosity or large-scale defects may occur in the casting. Further, unlike the commercially available software (e.g., ProCAST, SOLIDCast , MAGMASOFT®) the complex 3D-analysis of the stress / strain fields in cast parts is not performed at this time. However, the availability of free software for assessing the required thermodynamic / thermo-physical properties of new alloys (OpenCALPHAD) and CFD codes such as OpenFOAM® makes the developed option attractive and economical, especially for the analysis of new Al-Ce alloys, for which the available data does not exist.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

On infinite tensor networks, complementary recovery and type II factors

We initiate a study of local operator algebras at the boundary of infinite tensor networks, using the mathematical theory of inductive limits. In particular, we consider tensor networks in which each layer acts as a quantum code with complementary recovery, a property that features prominently in the bulk-to-boundary maps intrinsic to holographic quantum error-correcting codes. In this case, we decompose the limiting Hilbert space and the algebras of observables in a way that keeps track of the entanglement in the network. As a specific example, we describe this inductive limit for the holographic Harlow-Pastawski-Preskill-Yoshida code model and relate its algebraic and error-correction features. We find that the local algebras in this model are given by the hyperfinite type II$_\infty$ factor. Next, we discuss other networks that build upon this framework and comment on a connection between type II factors and stabilizer circuits. We conclude with a discussion of multiscale entanglement renormalization ansatz networks in which complementary recovery is broken. We argue that this breaking possibly permits a limiting type III von Neumann algebra, making them more suitable ansätze for approximating subregions of quantum field theories.

holographic dualities↗

Method of Test for Evaluating Building Performance Simulation Software

ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 Method of Test for Evaluating Building Performance Simulation Software specifies the method to test the core competency of building performance simulation (BPS) software, a broad class of software which includes building energy modeling (BEM) software. Standard 140 has been widely used by BEM software vendors to help diagnose and compare the results from the program with other modeling programs. The Standard is also referenced by codes, standards, government programs, and other incentive programs as a part of minimum requirements for qualifying BEM software. The explanatory information, summary tables and figures in this 140 User’s Manual (referred to as “this Manual”) are provided to help users in implementing various suites of tests specified in Standard 140-2023 (referred to in this manual as “Standard 140” or “the Standard”).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Using High-Fidelity Multiphysics Simulations

The US nuclear industry is looking to improve on the operating economics of the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs). One way of achieving this is by operating fuel to higher burnup. In pressurized water reactors (PWRs), relaxing the current burnup limit will allow for cycle length extensions and power uprates; in boiling water reactors (BWRs) it may allow for improved fuel utilization and reduced feed assemblies, as well as more efficient power uprates and increased capacity factors that will support the Administration’s Executive Order to facilitate 5 GW of power uprates at existing nuclear facilities. However, one of the key limitations to operating fuel to higher burnup is the risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Recognizing the high interest in extending burnup limits, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1434, which defines an approach that would be acceptable to the NRC for addressing FFRD risk. The approach defined will require better understanding of the phenomena leading to FFRD as well as best-estimate simulation methods to understand FFRD risk in high-burnup cores. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is supporting the FFRD industry challenge problem through development of state-of-the-art, high-fidelity modeling and simulation LWR analysis capabilities; namely, the BISON fuel performance code and the VERA core simulator software. These tools, along with the US NRC TRACE system analysis code, have been utilized for analysis of FFRD risk in both PWR and BWR cores in recent years. The work documented in this report addresses the lack of high-fidelity research for BWRs and builds on a previous activity where the framework has been applied to Cycles 16 through 18 of Limerick Unit 1, a BWR/4, with introduction of 8 high-burnup lead use assemblies (HBLUAs) that were representative of the 8 HBLUAs loaded into Limerick Unit 2 in 2021. VERA was used in this previous activity to model rod-by-rod depletion in these cycles, and its solution was used to initialize a TRACE simulation of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) at the end of Cycle 18. In the work documented in this report, the TRACE model was improved by refining the core mesh and utilizing a new feature that allows for capturing the full 3D VERA power distribution in the model. This allows for a more detailed solution for setting BISON boundary conditions. Furthermore, the solutions from VERA and TRACE were used to set up and perform BISON simulations of about 1,000 rods sampled from the core, including all burnup levels. Utilizing two cladding burst models, it was shown that no fuel rods were predicted to burst during the postulated LBLOCA transient. Additionally, a sensitivity study was performed by artificially increasing linear heat rate during the postulated LBLOCA to identify parameters that correlate with rod burst susceptibility. Burnup, fission gas release, and hoop strain were all found to be positively correlated with rod burst susceptibility. Small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) analyses were also performed; these analyses predicted cladding temperature increases that were bounded by the LBLOCA cladding temperatures for all small break sizes studied for this plant. However, future refinements to the plant response assumptions during the SBLOCA could impact the predicted cladding response. Finally, a benchmark study was performed between CTF and TRACE for LOCA conditions to better qualify CTF for BWR LOCA modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The Viskores User's Guide (V.1.0)

High-performance computing relies on ever finer threading. Advances in processor technology include ever greater numbers of cores, hyperthreading, accelerators with integrated blocks of cores, and special vectorized instructions, all of which require more software parallelism to achieve peak performance. Traditional visualization solutions cannot support this extreme level of concurrency. Extreme scale systems require a new programming model and a fundamental change in how we design algorithms. To address these issues we created Viskores: the visualization toolkit for multi-/many-core architectures. Viskores supports a number of algorithms and the ability to design further algorithms through a top-down design with an emphasis on extreme parallelism. Viskores also provides support for finding and building links across topologies, making it possible to perform operations that determine manifold surfaces, interpolate generated values, and find adjacencies. Although Viskores provides a simplified high-level interface for programming, its template-based code removes the overhead of abstraction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Viskores User's Guide, Release 1.1

High-performance computing relies on ever finer threading. Advances in processor technology include ever greater numbers of cores, hyperthreading, accelerators with integrated blocks of cores, and special vectorized instructions, all of which require more software parallelism to achieve peak performance. Traditional visualization solutions cannot support this extreme level of concurrency. Extreme scale systems require a new programming model and a fundamental change in how we design algorithms. To address these issues we created Viskores: the visualization toolkit for multi/many-core architectures. Viskores supports a number of algorithms and the ability to design further algorithms through a top-down design with an emphasis on extreme parallelism. Viskores also provides support for finding and building links across topologies, making it possible to perform operations that determine manifold surfaces, interpolate generated values, and find adjacencies. Although Viskores provides a simplified high-level interface for programming, its template-based code removes the overhead of abstraction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Developing And Scaling an OpenFOAM Model to Study Turbulent Flow in a HFIR Coolant Channel

Improving the understanding of how computational fluid dynamics (CFD) direct numerical simulations (DNS) of flows in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) perform when run in parallel using the high performance computing (HPC) platform Summit at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) is of particular importance to boost the computational tools used to support HFIR conversion to low enriched fuel (LEU). Evaluation of scaling performance was driven by the increasing importance of graphics processing unit (GPU) usage in HPC, which is becoming the standard for modern supercomputers such as Summit. The desired results are to obtain a strong positive correlation between the computational resources dedicated to a problem and the relative speed-up of the simulation in comparison to a benchmark. This capability will allow substantially improvement in HFIR flow analytical capabilities, specifically when predicting turbulence properties at high Reynolds numbers. The study leverages previous simulation results performed with code PHASTA (finite element) on HPC platforms Cori (NERSC) and Theta (ALCF) [1] with computing options provided in the computing platform OpenFOAM (finite volume) at OLCF. Transitioning from PHASTA to OpenFOAM will (1) eliminate dependence on third-party software for mesh generation and manipulation, (2) reduce resource needs by employing modern architectures, and (3) build expertise for future modeling of HFIR-specific problems like heat transfer in involute geometry, entrance effects, flow structure in channel corners, and so on—all important issues when defining the available thermal margins in the transition to LEU. CPUs and GPUs differ significantly in their architecture and utilization, as discussed in the literature [2]. The most important differences are in the approach to computations and their memory. A single GPU contains a large quantity of cores, enabling it to perform with a much higher throughput than a CPU, but execution requires a different approach. GPU codes execute instructions using the Single-Instruction Multiple-Thread (SIMT) approach in which a single instruction is used for groups of threads called warps. A warp typically consists of 32 threads which must execute the same set of instructions, although on separate threads. Alternately, a CPU has far fewer cores that are much more flexible in their operation, excelling at quickly performing more complex serial computations. This is why GPUs have greater throughput when properly utilized. The second important difference is seen when comparing their memory spaces. Limited memory allocations and CPU–GPU communications cause a significant bottleneck in GPU-accelerated programs. Further study was required to properly take advantage of GPU resources. A comprehensive analysis of code performance and the model-specific features of turbulence constitutes the core of this work. In this study, a DNS simulation of HFIR channel turbulence was performed with the finite volume CFD code OpenFOAM v2112 and CUDA v11.0 on Red Hat Enterprise Linux v8.2. The OpenFOAM installation had AMGx integrated to enable GPU acceleration and utilizes the PETSc4FOAM library. The computational resources and the problem size were scaled on CPU and CPU + GPU architectures to gain a better understanding of the performance of a DNS problem on modern computing hardware. The study aimed to analyze the scaling of the code exclusively on CPUs and then to examine the scaling of the codes with GPU acceleration enabled. Scaling studies included CPU and GPU acceleration on a mesh of varying resolution to analyze the impact of problem size relative to computational resources. In the course of preparing the GPU configuration on Summit, mainly using the AMGX solvers, difficulties were encountered stemming from constant changes resulting from extensive ongoing development activities and the changing environment. This resulted in the inability to complete the GPU portion of the work. The code was compiled and tested, but production runs to assess acceleration were not performed because the used discretional compute time allocation expired as year-end approached. The Summit HPC platform is scheduled for decommissioning in 2024, making it unattractive for future use with Nvidia-based GPUs. Therefore, the work will be moved onto NERSC machines in FY24. An application was prepared and submitted, and sufficient node-hours were awarded to continue the research in the next calendar year. This report summarizes work performed thus far, which mostly focused on CPU OpenFOAM computing.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

High-fidelity multiphysics load following and accidental transient modeling of microreactors using NEAMS tools: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The feasibility of modeling microreactors using high-fidelity models with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) tools is investigated in this report. Three overarching questions guided this research: can NEAMS tools readily be applied for high-fidelity multiphysics modeling of different types of transients in microreactor designs; how accurate are the results obtained; and are improvements needed in accuracy or user experience of NEAMS tools, especially considering newly developed capabilities? This work builds upon FY-2022 work, and two microreactor concepts considering heat pipe (HP-MR) and gas-cooled (GC-MR) technologies were further analyzed using high-fidelity multiphysics simulations. The NEAMS tools considered and coupled within the MultiApp environment are Griffin for neutronics, BISON for thermo-mechanics, Sockeye for heat pipe modeling (in HP-MR), SAM for 1D Fluid – 3D solid modeling of coolant channels and system modeling of balance of plant components (in GC-MR), and the SWIFT code for hydrogen redistribution in hydride moderator. The Heat Pipe MicroReactor (HP-MR) concept was further analyzed in FY-2023 to demonstrate the stochastic TRISO failure modeling capability in BISON to check operational limits of the TRISO fuel. A new full-core Gas-Cooled MicroReactor (GC-MR) model was developed based on the initial assembly-model used in Y-2022 and used for steady-state and accidental depressurization transient simulations. Accuracy of the simulations performed was assessed through 1) verification analyses completed on the different physics with code-to-code comparison, and 2) validation of the multiphysics simulations based on modeling of the Kilopower Reactor Using Stirling Technology (KRUSTY) experiment. In FY-2023, the mesh and model of KRUSTY was updated to closely match publicly available data, and the neutronic model was verified and validated against experimental control rod worth measurements. The multiphysics model of KRUSTY was developed and used for steady-state analysis and for modeling reactivity insertion transient. The calculated power increase and stabilization agrees well with experimental data following adjustment in fuel thermal expansion coefficient. As an important component of this project, the ANL team gathered experience with a wide range of NEAMS tools: the MOOSE Mesh System, Griffin, BISON, SWIFT, Sockeye, SAM, Workbench, and the MOOSE MultiApp System, and provided assessment of new capabilities. Noteworthy are the user assessment of the “vapor-only” flow model in Sockeye and development of a multiphysics startup transient in HP-MR unit cell for use as tutorial in Sockeye. The full-core GC-MR model was used for assessment of SAM for balance of plant modeling and for demonstrating the SWIFT code capability for hydrogen redistribution modeling in multiphysics transient analyses. In this process, several bugs/issues were identified and reported to developers. Finally, the assembly GC-MR model developed in FY-2022 coupling Griffin, BISON and SAM through flow blockage and rod ejection transients was published to the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB). The Heat Pipe MicroReactor (HP-MR) concept high-fidelity multiphysics coupling of Griffin/BISON/Sockeye in load-following and heat pipe failure transients was also published on the VTB. Those submissions are enabling thorough review of these models as well as wide distribution to industry, regulator, and university users. In this analysis, several new research questions were uncovered, and follow-up analyses are recommended to further improve some models, consider additional transients, and continue development of VTB models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) confirm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exemplified through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Analytic Modeling of a Deep Shielding Problem

Previous generations of scientists would make tremendous efforts to simplify non-tractable problems and generate simpler models that preserved the fundamental physics. This process involved applying assumptions and simplifications to reduce the complexity of the problem until it reached a solvable form. Each assumption and simplification was chosen and applied with the intent to preserve the essential physics of the problem, since, if the core physics of the problem were eliminated, the simplified model served no purpose. Moreover, if done correctly, solutions to the reduced model would serve as useful approximations to the original problem. In a sense, solving the simple models laid the ground-work for and provided insight into the more complex problem. Today, however, the affordability of high performance computing has essentially replaced the process for analyzing complex problems. Rather than "building up" a problem by understanding smaller, simpler models, a user generally relies on powerful computational tools to directly arrive at solutions to complex problems. As computational resources grow, users continue trying to simulate new, more complex, or more detailed problems, resulting in continual stress on both the code and computational resources. When these resources are limited, the user will have to make concessions by simplifying the problem while trying to preserve important details. In the context of the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport simulation tool, simplifications typically come as reductions in geometry, or by using variance reduction techniques. Both approaches can influence the physics of the problem, leading to potentially inaccurate or non-physical results. Errors can also be introduced as a result of faulty input into a computational tool: something as simple as transposing numbers in a tally input can result in incorrect answers. In this paradigm, reduced complexity computational and analytical models still have an important purpose. The explicit form of an analytic solution is arguably the best way to understand the qualitative properties of simple models. In contrast to "building up" a complex problem through understanding simpler problems, results from detailed computational scenarios can be better explained by "building down" the complex model through simple models rooted in the fundamental or essential phenomenology. Simplified analytic and computational models can be used to 1) increase a user's confidence in the computational solution of a complex model, 2) con firm there are no user input errors, and 3) ensure essential assumptions of the simulation tool are preserved. This process of using analytic models to develop a more valuable analysis of simulation results is named the results assessment methodology. The utility of the results assessment methodology and a complimentary sensitivity analysis is exempli fied through the analysis of the neutron flux in a dry used fuel storage cask. This application was chosen due to current scientific interest in used nuclear fuel storage.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evaluating wind speed and power forecasts for wind energy applications using an open-source and systematic validation framework

Building on the verification and validation work developed under the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project, this work exhibits the value of a consistent procedure to evaluate wind power forecasts. We established an open-source Python code base tailored for wind speed and wind power forecast validation, WE-Validate. The code base can evaluate model forecasts with observations in a coherent manner. To demonstrate the systematic validation framework of WE-Validate, we designed and hosted a forecast evaluation benchmark exercise. We invited forecast providers in industry and academia to participate and submit forecasts for two case studies. We then evaluated the submissions with WE-Validate. Our findings suggest that ensemble means have reasonable skills in time series forecasting, whereas they are often inferior to single ensemble members in wind ramp forecasting. Adopting a voting scheme in ramp forecasting that allows ensemble members to detect ramps independently leads to satisfactory skill scores. Throughout this document, we also emphasize the importance of using statistically robust and resistant metrics as well as equitable skill scores in forecast evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗