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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Computing for Scale-Up Problems

Adaptive Computing is an application-agnostic outer loop framework to strategically deploy simulations and experiments to guide decision making for scale-up analysis. Resources are allocated over successive batches, which makes the allocation adaptive to some objective such as optimization or model training. The framework enables the characterization and management of uncertainties associated with predictive models of complex systems when scale-up questions lead to significant model extrapolation. A key advancement of this framework is its integration of multi-fidelity surrogate modeling, uncertainty management, and automated orchestration of various computing and experimentation resources into a single integrated software package. This enables efficient multi-fidelity modeling across multiple computing resources by incorporating real-world constraints such as relative queue times and throughput on individual machines into the multi-fidelity sampling decision. We discuss applications of this framework to problems in the renewable energy space, including biofuels production, material synthesis, perovskite crystal growth, and building electrical loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-precision shock equation of state measurements for metallic fluid carbon between 15 and 20 Mbar

Diamond is an efficient ablator material to convert the energy of high-power giant lasers into ablation pressure with applications for High-Energy-Density (HED) science, planetary science, and Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) research at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). Unfortunately, current theoretical equation of state models cannot reproduce all the observed experimental data in the multi-megabar regime particularly relevant for HED and ICF research. New experimental data on the behavior of carbon at extreme pressures and temperatures are, therefore, essential to improve our predictive capability to design and analyze dynamic compression experiments for HED or ICF research and build improved equation of state models in the future. In this paper, we report high-precision laser-driven shock compression measurements on diamond single crystals at the Omega Laser Facility. Using ultrafast Doppler optical Velocimetry Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR) to track the leading shock front and a quartz plate as an in situ reference, we obtain relative pressure-density shock equation-of-state measurements between 15 and 20 Mbar with an impedance-matching procedure. We also report shock-and-release measurements in a spherical geometry at the NIF. The new data provide tight constraints on the compressibility of warm dense carbon along the Hugoniot of full density diamond, allowing us to discriminate between existing theoretical equation-of-state models. We find that both LLNL LEOS 9061 and LANL Sesame 7835 models capture well the shock compressibility in the explored range. LANL Sesame 7835 also reproduces well the observed shock-and-release behavior of diamond near 10–20 Mbar.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reassessing energy deposition for the ITER 5 MA vertical displacement event with an improved DINA model

The beryllium (Be) main chamber wall interaction during a 5 MA/1.8 T upward, unmitigated VDE scenario, first analysed in [J. Coburn et al., Phys. Scr. T171 (2020) 014076] for ITER, has been re-evaluated using the latest energy deposition analysis software. Updates to the DINA disruption model are summarized, including an improved numerical convergence for the 0D power balance, limitations on the safety factor within the plasma core, and the choice to maintain a constant plasma +halo poloidal cross-section. Such updates result in a broad halo region and higher radiated power fractions compared to previous models. The new scenario lasts for ~75 ms and deposits ~29 MJ of energy, with the radial distribution of parallel heat flux q‖(r)resembling an exponential falloff with an effective λ_q=75-198 mm. A maximum halo width w_h of 0.52 m at the outboard midplane is observed. SMITER field line tracing and energy deposition simulations calculate a q_{⊥,max} of ~83 MW/m^2 on the upper first wall panels (FWP). Heat transfer calculations with the MEMOS-U code show that the FWP surface temperature reaches ~1000 K, well below the Be melt threshold. Variations of this 5 MA scenario with Be im-purity densities from 0 to 3∙10^19 m^-3 also remain below the melt threshold despite differences in energy deposition and duration. These results are in contrast to the early study which predicted melt damage to the first wall [J. Coburn et al., Phys. Scr. T171 (2020) 014076], and emphasize the importance of accurate models for the halo width w_h and the heat flux distribution q‖(r)within that halo width. The 2020 halo model in DINA has been compared with halo current experiments on COMPASS, JET, and Alcator C-Mod, and the preliminary results build confidence in the broad halo width predictions. Results for the 5 MA VDE are compared with those for a 15 MA equivalent, generated using the new DINA model. At the higher current, significant melting of the upper FWP is to be expected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sharing is caring: An extensive analysis of parameter-based transfer learning for the prediction of building thermal dynamics

In recent years deep neural networks have been proposed as a lightweight data-driven model to capture high-dimensional, nonlinear physical processes to predict building thermal responses. However, the need of a large amount of data for the training process of deep neural networks clashes with the potential limited data availability in most existing or new buildings. Transfer learning aims to enhance the performance of a target learner exploiting knowledge from related and similar environments. This study conducted a suite of experiments that leveraged 250 data-driven models based on a synthetic dataset of a building archetype to study the influence of data availability, energy efficiency level, occupancy and climate for the transfer process of thermal dynamics. The performance of the transfer learning process was compared against a classical machine learning approach. Here, the results suggest that building thermal dynamics can be effectively transferred under the same climatic conditions, increasing performance when dealing with different occupancy schedules, efficiency levels and low data availability. Furthermore, the paper compares the performance of both transfer learning and machine learning approaches in an online fashion, to support the implementation in real-world deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Final Technical Report: Innovative Magnetron Power Sources for Superconducting RF (SRF) Accelerators

In this project, MUONS is designing and building custom magnetrons at Richardson Electronics (RELL) to test the predictions of the models and make improvements to the designs to match the needs of NP SRF accelerators and their life-cycle costs. To increase lifetime, the filament temperature is controlled by a feedback circuit that includes a model of back streaming of electrons. The gain of the magnetron is optimized by the design of an input port. A permanent magnet design with trim coil for amplitude adjustment reduces energy consumption. Moving the construction of the magnetron from prototype to manufacturing includes the utilization of RELL processes and designs. To the extent that outgassing of materials influences the lifetime of the magnetron, methods for minimizing outgassing was explored. Further experimentation of the potential of sub-critical voltage operation continues to be explored. The commercialization goal of the project will be naturally achieved as RELL already has world-wide marketing, sales, and support to exploit the assembly-line capabilities generated by this project to enable magnetron technologies for NP accelerators.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Evaluation of Gray-box and Machine Learning Models of a Thermal Energy Storage System with Active Insulation

An interior partition wall integrated with active thermal storage and a dynamic insulation system was built and then installed in an office building in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, TN. This smart wall, termed the Empower Wall, was equipped with embedded pipes in the building envelope core component and an additional pipe network enclosing rigid insulation to switch on and off the active insulation dynamically. The performance of the wall's contribution to cooling load reduction under different parameters has been investigated in previous publications. Aiming to be deployed into model predictive control and other optimization methods, simplified and reliable models for the developed wall and the room accommodating it are required. They are needed to characterize the properties and thermal response of both Empower Wall and building envelope, which form an essential component for accurate indoor temperature or cooling/heating demand prediction. In this study, simplified gray-box and regression models as well as machine learning model were developed and the performance of them were compared and analyzed.

Cui, Borui↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reactive transport modeling of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) system at Stockton University, New Jersey during seasonal operations

Hydrogeochemical processes associated with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) operations can often impact the system performance owing to mineral precipitation either at the wellbore or in the aquifer owing to changes in temperature and fluid disequilibria. Although failure of ATES systems due to mineral precipitation ("fouling") is common, predictive reactive-transport models have rarely been applied to plan their design and operation. Here, the objective of this study is to develop a reactive-transport model by coupling thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes to evaluate effects of introduced atmospheric oxygen on water chemistry, mineral precipitation/dissolution, porosity, and permeability changes associated with an ATES system at Stockton University (New Jersey, USA). The THC model builds on a Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) model of the site that evaluated system failure owing to possible fracturing in the caprock or around the wellbore. The causes of the system failure are not known – potential causes include hydraulic fracturing owing to elevated pump pressures that took place, a flow pathway created by one of the boreholes, or a pre-existing natural hydrologic connection between the upper unconfined aquifer and the ATES aquifer, any of which could have led to oxygenated water entering the reservoir and causing the observed Fe-oxide fouling on well screens. The THC model is used to evaluate some of the hypotheses and observations regarding system failure owing to geochemical processes. The reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT V4 was used to model the THC processes during seasonal heating and cooling operations at the Stockton ATES site over 6 years of operation. In the THC simulations, the primary effects on geochemistry were observed when the injection water is saturated with atmospheric oxygen. Simulations show greater precipitation of goethite near the cold wells as compared to the warm wells. Although volume fractions of Fe-hydroxides were relatively small, the model was aimed at processes in the aquifer at the scale of meters and larger rather than at the scale of mm or cm (i.e., a well screen). Kaolinite is the dominant precipitating phase, also around the cold wells. Illite dissolves near the cold wells and precipitates near the warm wells. There is a net decrease in the porosity near the cold wells and increase near the warm wells, although a slight amount of thermal contraction near the cold wells and expansion near the warm wells is responsible for a significant proportion of the porosity change. Owing to the coarse discretization of the numerical grid near the wells (compared to the screen thickness) the magnitude of permeability changes at the wellbore are likely underestimated. The reactive transport model in this study can be used for characterization of aquifers, optimizing the operational parameters (temperature, pressure, pH etc.), and planning of mitigation strategies for ATES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Models and Novel Accelerated Tests for the Reliability of Cell Metallization in Photovoltaic Modules (Final Report)

Studies of metallization corrosion m photovoltaics have mainly been limited to comparisons of modules placed in accelerated chambers to fielded modules [1]. Damp Heat accelerated tests and phenomenological equations [2] are used to assess metallization corrosion without understanding the effect of UV light and temperature and humidity cycles on encapsulant adhesion degradation. The roles of encapsulant in-and out-diffusions of moisture and encapsulant impurities are important. Furthermore, few photovoltaic metallization corrosion studies included the role of bias and leakage currents, which are crucial in the electrochemical reaction of metallization. Leakage currents can highly accelerate the corrosion mechanism and are important to include in the studies of corrosion. In our research plan, we will address the following gaps in the PV community's understanding of metallization corrosion: (1) metallization corrosion with bias, humidity, and impurities in the encapsulant or metallization; (2) humidity diffusion through fresh and degraded encapsulants; and (3) comparison of model predictions with outdoor field modules and SunPower's extensive data for its back-contact and front-contact fleets [2] along with NREL's store of >20 year old modules. Our goal is to build models and accelerated tests to predict long term degradation of metallization corrosion of photovoltaic modules in the field. Our studies will include metals used in c-Si solar cells (Cu, Ag, and Al) and commonly used encapsulants (EV A (ethylene vinyl acetate), TPO (thermoplastic olefin), and silicone).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Considerations for Distributed Edge Data Centers and Use of Building Loads to Support Large Interconnections

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning is driving unprecedented electricity demand from data centers. It is predicted that by 2030, 90% of AI workloads will be inference-based, requiring interconnection of multiple low-latency edge data centers (<20 MW) sited closer to end users - often on already constrained distribution feeders. Although individually small, these loads can aggregate to large loads per feeder, straining infrastructure, creating multi-year interconnection delays, and driving up customer costs. This paper proposes a data center-focused grid-integration framework that combines feeder hosting capacity analysis with building energy efficiency, building load flexibility, and waste heat reuse to expand effective feeder and substation headroom. Such approaches can reduce interconnection delays, lower costs for ratepayers, and accelerate AI-ready infrastructure deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2023

Radiometric Testing of Germicidal UV Products, Round 1: UV-C Towers and Whole-Room Luminaires (CALiPER Full Report)

This report analyzes the independently tested performance of 13 germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) products purchased between February and July 2022. The products were of three different types: • Seven portable, consumer-oriented GUV towers designed to be placed on the floor or a desk of an unoccupied room to disinfect air and surfaces. Five of these products used LED sources and two products used low-pressure mercury (LPM) sources. • One non-portable GUV whole-room luminaire designed to be installed on a ceiling to disinfect air when a room is occupied. This product used an LED source. • Five non-portable GUV troffer or high-bay style whole-room luminaires designed to be installed in or suspended from a ceiling to disinfect air and surfaces when a room is unoccupied. All five used LPM sources. Radiometric and electrical performance was evaluated for all 13 products. Photobiological safety was also assessed for two of the products because their documentation included testable claims. The test results were compared across products and to manufacturer or vendor claims. The testing identified many issues related to the accuracy of reported GUV product performance. Claims were often untestable, contradictory, ambiguous, or used incorrect units and/or terminology. And when claims were testable, they often did not match test results. For example, three products that claimed to emit UV-C emitted only UV-A. These product claim issues were more numerous with consumer-oriented tower products, but problems with accurate performance claims were found across all products. The UV-C radiant efficiency of the products varied widely, even among similar products using the same source technologies. For example, the UV-C radiant efficiency of LPM products varied by greater than a factor of three for the same product type, indicating a large potential energy savings opportunity for products that are better designed for efficiency. LED products had orders-of-magnitude lower UV-C radiant efficiency than LPM products. Several testing challenges and limitations were identified. Most significant among these is the capability to accurately test and report the performance of larger GUV products. Integrating spheres require a specialized and costly coating to test UV, and the testing laboratory for this round of products had only a 20-inch diameter hemisphere with this capability. Only 2 of the 10 UV-C emitting products could be tested in this sphere. Goniometer testing had a different size limitation in that mirrors typically used to increase goniometer test distance to the far field are not reflective of UV and therefore could not be used to increase test distance. As a result, 7 of 13 products could not be tested far field. The implication is that electronic files of UV-C intensity data typically imported into design software for designing GUV applications may not be reliable for predicting irradiance at arbitrary far-field distances. It is currently unclear if these are industry-wide testing laboratory limitations, and what solutions may exist to address them. Specifiers and buyers of GUV products will need accurate performance claims and data to safely and effectively deploy GUV technology to reduce the transmission of diseases in buildings. This CALiPER GUV Round 1 report demonstrates the significant education and training that is needed for manufacturers and vendors to accurately test and report the performance of their GUV products. Further standards and guidelines are needed to improve test methods, address testing limitations, and improve reporting of product performance. Additionally, the wide range in UV-C radiant efficiency of GUV products means there is a large energy-savings opportunity for more energy efficient GUV products.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Radiometric Testing of Germicidal UV Products, Round 1: UV-C Towers and Whole-Room Luminaires (CALiPER Summary Report)

This summary report analyzes the independently tested performance of 13 germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) products purchased between February and July 2022. A companion full report provides additional information and discussion of the tested products, test methods, and results. The products were of three different types: • Seven portable, consumer-oriented GUV towers designed to be placed on the floor or a desk of an unoccupied room to disinfect air and surfaces. Five of these products used LED sources and two products used low-pressure mercury (LPM) sources. • One non-portable GUV whole-room luminaire designed to be installed on a ceiling to disinfect air when a room is occupied. This product used an LED source. • Five non-portable GUV troffer or high-bay style whole-room luminaires designed to be installed in or suspended from a ceiling to disinfect air and surfaces when a room is unoccupied. All five used LPM sources. Radiometric and electrical performance was evaluated for all 13 products. Photobiological safety was also assessed for two of the products because their documentation included testable claims. The test results were compared across products and to manufacturer or vendor claims. The testing identified many issues related to the accuracy of reported GUV product performance. Claims were often untestable, contradictory, ambiguous, or used incorrect units and/or terminology. And when claims were testable, they often did not match test results. For example, three products that claimed to emit UV-C emitted only UV-A. These product claim issues were more numerous with consumer-oriented tower products, but problems with accurate performance claims were found across all products. The UV-C radiant efficiency of the products varied widely, even among similar products using the same source technologies. For example, the UV-C radiant efficiency of LPM products varied by greater than a factor of three for the same product type, indicating a large potential energy savings opportunity for products that are better designed for efficiency. LED products had orders-of-magnitude lower UV-C radiant efficiency than LPM products. Several testing challenges and limitations were identified. Most significant among these is the capability to accurately test and report the performance of larger GUV products. Integrating spheres require a specialized and costly coating to test UV, and the testing laboratory for this round of products had only a 20-inch diameter hemisphere with this capability. Only 2 of the 10 UV-C emitting products could be tested in this sphere. Goniometer testing had a different size limitation in that mirrors typically used to increase goniometer test distance to the far field are not reflective of UV and therefore could not be used to increase test distance. As a result, 7 of 13 products could not be tested far field. The implication is that electronic files of UV-C intensity data typically imported into design software for designing GUV applications may not be reliable for predicting irradiance at arbitrary far-field distances. It is currently unclear if these are industry-wide testing laboratory limitations, and what solutions may exist to address them. Specifiers and buyers of GUV products will need accurate performance claims and data to safely and effectively deploy GUV technology to reduce the transmission of diseases in buildings. This CALiPER GUV Round 1 report demonstrates the significant education and training that is needed for manufacturers and vendors to accurately test and report the performance of their GUV products. Further standards and guidelines are needed to improve test methods, address testing limitations, and improve reporting of product performance. Additionally, the wide range in UV-C radiant efficiency of GUV products means there is a large energy-savings opportunity for more energy efficient GUV products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Building Model Forecasts using Autonomous HVAC Optimization System for Residential Neighborhood

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the highest share of home energy consumption in the United States. Optimized HVAC control can provide thermal improved comfort to the occupants, improve energy efficiency, reduce energy cost, and support grid services. In this paper, we discuss a multi-agent and cloud-based software framework that has been deployed in occupied residential neighborhood. This system enables automatic data collection, learning, optimization, and dispatches signals to neighborhood devices. HVAC optimization is based on model predictive control (MPC). Since the operational performance of MPC depends on model forecasting accuracy, it is crucial to evaluate the model continuously and modify or retrain it as necessary. In this research, we developed an automated workflow to evaluate the performance of temperature and power forecasts based on measured data in the real world. This will provide researchers with a deeper understanding of the model and how it can be improved.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Type Ia Supernova Distance Biases by Simulating Spectral Variations

In the next decade, transient searches from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will increase the sample of known Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from ~10 3 to 10 5 . With this reduction of statistical uncertainties on cosmological measurements, new methods are needed to reduce systematic uncertainties. Here, characterizing the underlying spectroscopic evolution of SN Ia remains a major systematic uncertainty in current cosmological analyses, motivating a new simulation tool for the next era of SN Ia cosmology: Build Your Own Spectral Energy Distribution (byosed). byosed is used within the SNANA framework to simulate light curves by applying spectral variations to model SEDs, enabling flexible testing of possible systematic shifts in SN Ia distance measurements. We test the framework by comparing a nominal Roman SN Ia survey simulation using a baseline SED model to simulations using SEDs perturbed with byosed, and investigating the impact of ignoring specific SED features in the analysis. These features include semiempirical models of two possible, predicted relationships: between SN ejecta velocity and light-curve observables, and a redshift-dependent relationship between SN Hubble residuals and host-galaxy mass. We analyze each byosed simulation using the SALT2 and BEAMS with Bias Corrections framework, and estimate changes in the measured value of the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter, w. We find a difference of Δw = –0.023 for SN velocity and Δw = 0.021 for redshift-evolving host mass when compared to simulations without these features. By using byosed for SN Ia cosmology simulations, future analyses (e.g., the Rubin and Roman SN Ia samples) will have greater flexibility to constrain or reduce such SN Ia modeling uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1987

Preflare energy build-up in a filament circuit

The May 16, 1981 flare observed at Debrecen is studied by extending to a fully three-dimensional model the two-dimensional Van Tend and Kuperus (1978) scenario for preflare energy build-up. It is shown that there are 10 to the 33rd ergs of free energy available to explain the subsequent large two-ribbon flare. As a result of the three-dimensional character of the present model, this estimate is an order of magnitude larger than that made by Van Tend. It is confirmed that the global form of the preflare circuit is highly important in determining the amount of energy stored in the preflare configuration. The present model gives correct predictions for the independently observed photospheric flow velocity and current strength in filaments.

Martens, P. C. H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Precipitation Estimates for Hydroelectricity

Hydroelectric plants require precise and timely estimates of rain, snow and other hydrometeors for operations. However, it is far from being a trivial task to measure and predict precipitation. This paper presents the linkages between precipitation science and hydroelectricity, and in doing so it provides insight into current research directions that are relevant for this renewable energy. Methods described include radars, disdrometers, satellites and numerical models. Two recent advances that have the potential of being highly beneficial for hydropower operations are featured: the Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) mission, which represents an important leap forward in precipitation observations from space, and high performance computing (HPC) and grid technology, that allows building ensembles of numerical weather and climate models.

Tapiador, Francisco J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seamlessly Fuel Flexible Heat Pump with Optimal Model-based Control Strategies to Reduce Peak Demand, Utility Cost and CO2 Emission

This research develops a novel hybrid fuel heat pump system for space heating of residential and small commercial buildings with built-in optimization and control. Whereas conventional dual fuel systems either run on gas or electricity at any given moment, the proposed seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP) simultaneously consumes gas and electricity and continuously optimizes the proportion of each. The building air flows across the heat pump condenser first and then flows across the furnace coil, and this reduces the heat pump temperature lift. The SFFHP delivers energy savings by allowing each subsystem (gas furnace and electric heat pump) to operate where it performs best to improve energy efficiency, minimize energy cost, and minimize carbon footprint. The capacities of the electric heat pump and gas furnace are continuously adjusted based on ambient conditions, utility price signals, and marginal grid emission signals. An optimal model predictive control strategy was developed with the goal of minimizing utility cost and minimizing CO2 emission. Two case studies were conducted to simulate the performance of SFFHP during the heating season in Chicago and Los Angeles, respectively. Compared with a conventional electric heat pump, SFFHP yields 33% utility cost reduction and 49% CO2 emission reduction in Chicago. Similarly, it achieves 23% utility cost reduction and 17% CO2 emission reduction in Los Angeles. Case studies demonstrate that SFFHP can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO2 emission. Due to the hybrid fuel nature of this novel equipment, user comfort will always be maintained. The fuel flexibility makes it an attractive option for demand response programs.

Li, Zhenning↗