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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28

Performance Assessment of a Dual-purpose HP-TES for a Typical Year Comparing Different Climate Zones

Complete electrification of heating and cooling systems in the United States would overload the existing electrical grid. To this end, recent research efforts have focused on energy storage as one way to reduce ever-increasing peak electricity demands. One such technology is heat pump integrated thermal-energy storage (HP-TES) systems, which can enable load-shifting and reduce demand during peak hours. In this work, a Modelica model of a 4-Ton, dual-mode (heating and cooling) HP-TES system using a room-temperature phase-change material (PCM) integrated through a secondary hydronic loop was developed and simulated for a typical meteorological year in Riverside, CA (ASHRAE Climate Zone 2B), and Chicago, IL (ASHRAE Climate Zone 5A), for a DOE small office prototype building. The COP improvement and demand reduction were analyzed during the time-of-use peak hours along with the required recharge cycle energy demand. A typical summer in Riverside, CA resulted in model-predicted peak COP increases of 50 – 100% compared to the baseline heat pump, especially at higher outdoor temperatures, coupled with maximum peak energy reductions of 22%. During shoulder and winter season simulations, heating energy savings were higher as outdoor temperatures dropped below the PCM phase change temperature. For Chicago, IL, backup heating was necessary to meet the required system capacity for very cold ambient conditions, resulting in winter peak energy savings between 16 – 60% when accounting for backup heating requirements. The recharge energy was found to be mostly below the baseline HP energy during the peak. With improved component selections and controls, the recharge energy may be reduced. The outcomes from the simulations can provide first-order estimates for potential peak energy savings, challenges, and required controls in any location before conducting any field testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Critical Literature Review of Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Refrigerants and their Environmental Impact

Refrigeration and air conditioning currently account for ~20% of the total electricity consumption in buildings around the world. Over the next three decades as global temperatures are projected to increase, urbanization and economic growth will lead to an increased demand for refrigeration and cooling. Most commonly used refrigerants belong to the five following classes: (i) chlorofluorocarbons, (ii) hydrochlorofluorocarbons, (iii) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), (iv) hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), and (v) natural refrigerants. Over the past century, there have been shifts in which compounds were used for refrigeration to improve safety and durability, allow for ozone protection, and, most recently, to reduce global warming potential (GWP). Although technological advances have led to increased cooling capacity and safer refrigerants, emissions from refrigeration systems can affect the environment by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions or by depleting the ozone layer, depending on the gas emitted. The focus is increasingly on adopting compounds that are both efficient at cooling and effective for reducing emissions and other adverse environmental impacts. Because of policy and regulatory changes to avert ozone depletion and global climate change, much discussion has centered on the environmental impacts of next-generation refrigerants. Of particular interest are the fluorinated refrigerants, HFCs and HFOs, most of which are defined as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and their breakdown products (especially trifluoroacetic acid). The US Environmental Protection Agency in 2021 drafted a Strategic Roadmap for PFAS, which has already resulted in an increase in investment in research on these compounds and has restricted the release of PFAS into the environment through the implementation of monitoring and reporting requirements. A critical evaluation of fluorinated refrigerants and their breakdown products with respect to persistence, biodegradation and toxicity, and global warming potential is needed to guide environmental regulations. This document aims to perform a critical review of the relevant scientific data on the most common refrigerants currently used, their degradation products, and their alternatives. Where available, estimates of precursor production quantities and existing environmental regulatory information are reviewed. Key data of interest for the evaluation include physicochemical properties, environmental fate parameters, ecological or human health toxicity/risk information, and GWP for compounds of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Critical Literature Review of Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Refrigerants and their Environmental Impact

Refrigeration and air conditioning currently account for ~20% of the total electricity consumption in buildings around the world. Over the next three decades as global temperatures are projected to increase, urbanization and economic growth will lead to an increased demand for refrigeration and cooling. Most commonly used refrigerants belong to the five following classes: (i) chlorofluorocarbons, (ii) hydrochlorofluorocarbons, (iii) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), (iv) hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), and (v) natural refrigerants. Over the past century, there have been shifts in which compounds were used for refrigeration to improve safety and durability, allow for ozone protection, and, most recently, to reduce global warming potential (GWP). Although technological advances have led to increased cooling capacity and safer refrigerants, emissions from refrigeration systems can affect the environment by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions or by depleting the ozone layer, depending on the gas emitted. The focus is increasingly on adopting compounds that are both efficient at cooling and effective for reducing emissions and other adverse environmental impacts. Because of policy and regulatory changes to avert ozone depletion and global climate change, much discussion has centered on the environmental impacts of next-generation refrigerants. Of particular interest are the fluorinated refrigerants, HFCs and HFOs, most of which are defined as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and their breakdown products (especially trifluoroacetic acid). The US Environmental Protection Agency in 2021 drafted a Strategic Roadmap for PFAS, which has already resulted in an increase in investment in research on these compounds and has restricted the release of PFAS into the environment through the implementation of monitoring and reporting requirements. A critical evaluation of fluorinated refrigerants and their breakdown products with respect to persistence, biodegradation and toxicity, and global warming potential is needed to guide environmental regulations. This document aims to perform a critical review of the relevant scientific data on the most common refrigerants currently used, their degradation products, and their alternatives. Where available, estimates of precursor production quantities and existing environmental regulatory information are reviewed. Key data of interest for the evaluation include physicochemical properties, environmental fate parameters, ecological or human health toxicity/risk information, and GWP for compounds of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Neurolab mission and biomedical engineering: a partnership for the future

Over the last five years, with the advent of flights of U.S. Shuttle/Spacelab missions dedicated entirely to life sciences research, the opportunities for conducting serious studies that use a fully outfitted space laboratory to better understand basic biological processes have increased. The last of this series of Shuttle/Spacelab missions, currently scheduled for 1998, is dedicated entirely to neuroscience and behavioral research. The mission, named Neurolab, includes a broad range of experiments that build on previous research efforts, as well as studies related to less mature areas of space neuroscience. The Neurolab mission provides the global scientific community with the opportunity to use the space environment for investigations that exploit microgravity to increase our understanding of basic processes in neuroscience. The results from this premier mission should lead to a significant advancement in the field as a whole and to the opening of new lines of investigation for future research. Experiments under development for this mission will utilize human subjects as well as a variety of other species. The capacity to carry out detailed experiments on both human and animal subjects in space allows a diverse complement of studies that investigate functional changes and their underlying molecular, cellular, and physiological mechanisms. In order to conduct these experiments, a wide array of biomedical instrumentation will be used, including some instruments and devices being developed especially for the mission.

NASA Program Flight↗

Feasibility of using the Massively Parallel Processor for large eddy simulations and other Computational Fluid Dynamics applications

The results of an investigation into the feasibility of using the MPP for direct and large eddy simulations of the Navier-Stokes equations is presented. A major part of this study was devoted to the implementation of two of the standard numerical algorithms for CFD. These implementations were not run on the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) since the machine delivered to NASA Goddard does not have sufficient capacity. Instead, a detailed implementation plan was designed and from these were derived estimates of the time and space requirements of the algorithms on a suitably configured MPP. In addition, other issues related to the practical implementation of these algorithms on an MPP-like architecture were considered; namely, adaptive grid generation, zonal boundary conditions, the table lookup problem, and the software interface. Performance estimates show that the architectural components of the MPP, the Staging Memory and the Array Unit, appear to be well suited to the numerical algorithms of CFD. This combined with the prospect of building a faster and larger MMP-like machine holds the promise of achieving sustained gigaflop rates that are required for the numerical simulations in CFD.

Bruno, John↗

Signal-Conditioning Amplifier Recorders

Signal-conditioning amplifier recorders (SCAmpRs) have been proposed as a means of simplifying and upgrading the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Ground Measurement System (GMS), which is a versatile data-acquisition system that gathers and records a variety of measurement data before and during the launch of a space shuttle. In the present version of the GMS system, signal conditioning amplifiers digitize and transmit data to a VME chassis that multiplexes up to 416 channels. The data is transmitted via a high-speed data bus to a second VME chassis where it is available for snapshots. The data is passed from the second VME chassis to a high-speed data recorder. This process is duplicated for installations at two launch pads and the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). Since any failure of equipment in the data path results in loss of data, much of the system is redundant. The architecture of the existing GMS limits expansion or any modification to the system to meet changing requirements because of the cost and time required. A SCAmpR-based system is much more flexible. The basis of the simplification, flexibility, and reliability is the shifting of the recording function to the individual amplifier channels. Each SCAmpR is a self-contained single channel data acquisition system, which in its current implementation, has a data storage capacity of up to 30 minutes when operating at the fastest data sampling rates. The SCAmpR channels are self-configuring and self-calibrating. Multiple SCAmpR channels are ganged on printed circuit boards and mounted in a chassis that provides power, a network hub, and Inter-Range Instrument Group (IRIG) time signals. The SCAmpR channels share nothing except physical mounting on a circuit board. All circuitry is electrically separate for each channel. All that is necessary to complete the data acquisition system is a single master computer tied to the SCAmpR channels by standard network equipment. The size of the data acquisition system dictates the requirements for the specific network equipment.

Medelius, Pedro J.↗

Life Cycle Inventories and Data Gap Analysis for Rare Earth Elements: Neodymium and Dysprosium from Mining to Magnets

The United States demand for Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets, produced from rare earth elements (REEs) such as (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy), far exceeds its nascent domestic production capacity, rendering it reliant on vulnerable global supply chains dominated by China. To guide research and development investments in securing U.S. REE supply, defensible benchmark metrics across environmental, economic, and social dimensions are needed. In this study, we built globally-representative, process-based cradle-to-cradle life cycle inventories for Nd and Dy in NdFeB magnets lifecycles, encompassing primary material acquisition, beneficiation, smelting and refining, metal processing, specialty alloy and chemical transformation, subcomponent manufacturing, consumer application (use phase) and end-of-life management. We carried out detailed literature review, and applied process engineering principles to build industry-representative upscaled life cycle inventories for both metals. We used these models to conduct bottom-up literature review and gap analysis on existing literature, compilation of data sources for each life cycle stage (and transformations where necessary), and a preliminary technoeconomic analysis (TEA)/life cycle costing analysis (LCCA). Findings from this work emphasize the need for metal specific, representative REE LCIs to establish robust benchmarks for advancing sustainable REE technologies and guiding R&D in REE supply chains.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Developing a Framework for Valuation of Grid Services

The electric system is rapidly evolving and growing, raising new questions about how to define and value grid services delivered by a diverse set of resources, including customer-owned assets. This report advances a service–parameter–value framework that links what a grid service does to why it matters, and how its benefits are evidenced. We build upon prior efforts (Bender et al. 2021) and extend them to include value categories (reliability, resilience, cost & access, and security) with primary and secondary tiers, service-specific value streams that explain how benefits materialize, and metrics that make valuation traceable and comparable. We apply the framework to the six core grid services defined in (Kolln et al. 2023): Frequency Response, Regulation, Reserves, Energy, Voltage Management, and Blackstart and demonstrate it on three use cases to highlight the adaptability of these value streams. Further, we outline how the framework integrates with existing tools such as asset optimization, hosting capacity and cost-benefit analysis, and propose a path to portable qualifications and consistent stacking rules for use in tariffs and filings. Finally, we identify future pathways for research and application research needs to support standardization and decision-ready comparisons across services, assets, and architectures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Space Elevator and Its Promise for Next Generation Exploration

Bryan E. Laubscher received his Ph.D. in physics in 1994 from the University of New Mexico with a concentration in astrophysics. He is currently on entrepreneurial leave from Los Alamos National Laboratory where he is a project leader and he has worked in various capacities for 16 years. His past projects include LANL's portion of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Magdalena Ridge Observatory and a project developing concepts and technologies for space situational awareness. Over the years Bryan has participated in research in astronomy, lidar, non-linear optics, space mission design, space-borne instrumentation design and construction, spacecraft design, novel electromagnetic detection concepts and technologies, detector/receiver system development, spectrometer development, interferometry and participated in many field experiments. Bryan led space elevator development at LANL until going on entrepreneurial leave in 2006. On entrepreneurial leave, Bryan is starting a company to build the strongest materials ever created. These materials are based upon carbon nanotubes, the strongest structures known in nature and the first material identified with sufficient strength-to-weight properties to build a space elevator.

Laubscher, Bryan E.↗

The Liquid Nitrogen System for Chamber A: A Change from Original Forced Flow Design to a Natural Flow (Thermo Siphon) System

NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston is currently supplementing its 20K helium refrigeration system to meet the new requirements for testing the James Web Space Telescope in the environmental control Chamber-A (65 dia x 120 high) in Building 32. The new system is required to meet the various operating modes which include a high 20K heat load, a required temperature stability at the load, rapid (but controlled) cool down and warm up and bake out of the chamber. This paper will present the proposed modifications to the existing helium system(s) to incorporate the new requirements and the integration of the new helium refrigerator with the existing two 3.5KW 20K helium refrigerators. In addition, the floating pressure process control philosophy to achieve high efficiency over the operating range (40% to 100% of the refrigeration system capacity), and the required temperature stability of +/- 0.25 K at the load will be discussed. The refrigeration systems ability to naturally seek the operating conditions under various loads and thus minimizing operator involvement and the over all improvements to the system operability and the reliability will be explained.

Homan, Jonathan↗

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

space weather↗

Trace Adsorptive Removal of PFAS from Water by Optimizing the UiO‐66 MOF Interface

Abstract The confluence of pervasiveness, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in freshwater contaminants presents an environmental threat second to none. Exemplifying this trifecta, per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) present an alarming hazard among the emerging contaminants. State‐of‐the‐art PFAS adsorbents used in drinking water treatment, namely, activated carbons and ion‐exchange resins, are handicapped by low adsorption capacity, competitive adsorption, and/or slow kinetics. To overcome these shortcomings, metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) with tailored pore size, surface, and pore chemistry are promising alternatives. Thanks to the compositional modularity of MOFs and polymer–MOF composites, herein we report on a series of water‐stable zirconium carboxylate MOFs and their low‐cost polymer‐grafted composites as C 8 –PFAS adsorbents with benchmark kinetics and “parts per billion” removal efficiencies. Bespoke insights into the structure–function relationships of PFAS adsorbents are obtained by leveraging interfacial design principles on solid sorbents, creating a synergy between the extrinsic particle surfaces and intrinsic molecular building blocks.

Ilić, Nebojša↗

NASA's Space Launch System: Unprecedented Payload Capabilities

As NASA turns 60 and plans to transition the International Space Station (ISS) and other low-Earth orbit (LEO) activities to commercial enterprises, the Agency's human exploration program turns its focus to deep space. With missions planned to send astronauts back to the Moon and to construct a lunar orbiting Gateway for surface access as well as science experiments and technology demonstrations, NASA requires a vehicle with capabilities for launching more mass and volume than is currently commercially available. To that end, NASA and its private sector partners are building the Space Launch System (SLS) super heavy-lift launch vehicle, which will send the new Orion crew capsule, eventually with a complement of four astronauts, to cislunar space for the first time since the Apollo Program in the 1960s and 1970s. NASA Kennedy Space Center's (KSC's) Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) Program has upgraded and refurbished ground and launch facilities to process, assemble and launch NASA's new deep space exploration system, which is managed by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) organization in the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD). Offering an unmatched combination of power, payload capacity and departure energy, the evolvable SLS features the world's most proven propulsion system: solid rocket boosters and RS-25 main engines with a modified Delta Cryogenic Second Stage (DCSS) cryogenic upper stage. The initial SLS configuration, Block 1, will deliver at least 26 metric tons (t) to trans-lunar injection (TLI). The second variant, Block 1B, will deliver at least 34 t to TLI in its crew configuration and at least 40 t to TLI in its cargo configuration. The Block 1 cargo vehicle will fly with an industry-standard 5 m fairing while the Block 1B cargo configuration will accommodate 8 m-diameter fairings in varying lengths. The Block 2 vehicle will incorporate upgraded boosters and possibly larger fairings for launching Mars-class payloads to deep space. Although designed to enable human exploration of deep space, the vehicle also provides game-changing benefits for large science payloads and even harnesses excess capacity to provide small satellites with access to deep space. Three flights of the Block 1 vehicle are now planned; the first vehicle, being built for a test flight known as Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1), is nearing completion at NASA and contractor sites across the United States. In fact, hardware for the second mission has also been built. This paper will provide an overview of the SLS vehicle, with a focus on its payload accommodations and the missions enabled by the unprecedented payload volume and departure energy of SLS. This paper also describes the status of the manufacturing and integration for first flight and beyond.

Exploration Mission-1↗

A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

Ward, Steven N.↗

Ultradynamic Isoreticularly Expanded Porous Organic Crystals

Porous organic materials showcasing large framework dynamics present new paths for adsorption and separation with enhanced capacity and selectivity beyond the size-sieving limits, which is attributed to their guest-responsive sorption behaviors. Porous hydrogen-bonded crosslinked organic frameworks (H C OFs) are attractive for their remarkable ability to undergo guest-triggered expansion and contraction facilitated by their flexible covalent crosslinkages. However, the voids of H C OFs remain limited, which restrains the extent of the framework dynamics. Here in this work, we synthesized a series of H C OFs characterized by unprecedented size expansion capabilities induced by solvents. These H C OFs were constructed by isoreticularly co-crystallizing two complementary sets of hydrogen bonding building blocks to generate porous molecular crystals, which were crosslinked through thiol–ene/yne single-crystal-to-single-crystal transformations. The generated H C OFs exhibit enhanced chemical durability, high crystallinity, and extraordinary framework dynamics. For instance, H C OF-104 crystals featuring a pore diameter of 13.6 Å expanded in DMF to 300 ± 10% of their original lengths within just 1 min. This expansion allows the HCOFs to adsorb guest molecules that are significantly larger than the pore sizes of their crystalline states. Through methanol-induced contraction, these large guests were encapsulated in the fast-contracted H C OFs. These advancements in porous framework dynamics pave the way for new methods of encapsulating guests for targeted delivery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interpenetrated Structures for Enhancing Ion Diffusion Kinetics in Electrochemical Energy Storage Devices

The architectural design of electrodes offers new opportunities for next-generation electrochemical energy storage devices (EESDs) by increasing surface area, thickness, and active materials mass loading while maintaining good ion diffusion through optimized electrode tortuosity. However, conventional thick electrodes increase ion diffusion length and cause larger ion concentration gradients, limiting reaction kinetics. We demonstrate a strategy for building interpenetrated structures that shortens ion diffusion length and reduces ion concentration inhomogeneity. This free-standing device structure also avoids short-circuiting without needing a separator. The feature size and number of interpenetrated units can be adjusted during printing to balance surface area and ion diffusion. Starting with a 3D-printed interpenetrated polymer substrate, we metallize it to make it conductive. This substrate has two individually addressable electrodes, allowing selective electrodeposition of energy storage materials. Using a Zn//MnO 2 battery as a model system, the interpenetrated device outperforms conventional separate electrode configurations, improving volumetric energy density by 221% and exhibiting a higher capacity retention rate of 49% compared to 35% at temperatures from 20 to 0 °C. Our study introduces a new EESD architecture applicable to Li-ion, Na-ion batteries, supercapacitors, etc.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Phonon Olympics: Phonon property and lattice thermal conductivity benchmarking from open-source packages

Three widely used open-source packages for determining phonon properties and lattice thermal conductivities (ALAMODE, phono3py, and ShengBTE) are benchmarked by teams of expert users and the package developers. The phonons for Ge, RbBr, monolayer MoSe 2 , and AlN are modeled at zero temperature, and they scatter through three-phonon and phonon-isotope processes, with thermal conductivities obtained from the linearized Peierls–Boltzmann transport equation with input from density functional theory calculations. Over a wide range of temperatures, the thermal conductivities calculated by the teams fall within at most ±15% of their mean values for each of the four materials. The phonon frequencies, obtained from the harmonic force constants, do not show large differences between the calculations, indicating that the modal heat capacities and group velocities are not responsible for the thermal conductivity variations. It is the lifetimes associated with three-phonon scattering, obtained from the cubic force constants, that drive the variations. The many decisions required to calculate the cubic force constants (e.g., supercell size, atomic displacement, neighbor cutoff, and application of symmetries) make identification of the precise origin of the thermal conductivity variations challenging. The calculated thermal conductivities do not generally show agreement with experimental measurements, which is attributed to the limitations of the density functional theory calculations. Guidance for the development of best practices is provided, which will help to standardize protocols needed for building thermal conductivity databases. The results provide a baseline for future benchmarking of other packages and more advanced calculations.

McGaughey, Alan J. H. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pitt↗

Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

periodic variations↗