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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

How Can Construction Process Simulation Modeling Aid the Integration of Lean Principles in the Factory-Built Housing Industry?

New and existing factories that produce and deliver factory-built housing can benefit from construction process simulation modeling to explore the integration of Lean principles in their operations. Construction process simulation modeling provides digital or virtual recreations of the real-world factory environments to visualize, quantify, analyze, and optimize their underlying behavior, including factory productivity, material flow, labor dynamics, bottlenecks, and work scope. One of the key benefits of process simulation modeling is the ability to create and compare "what-if" scenarios, including integrating Lean principles such as reducing waste (for example, transportation, waiting), line balancing, and just-in-time concepts. In general, three process simulation methods are widely used: discrete event simulation (DES), agentbased modeling (ABM), and system dynamics (SD). Myriad process simulation software also is available, but depending on the industry, complexity of the system, and purposes of the simulation, some software might be more appropriate. Similar to how computer-aided design (CAD) software such as AutoCAD and Rhinoceros enable building design of modular or factory-built housing, process simulation modeling software such as jStrobe, ProModel, and AnyLogic can enable factory design of new and existing factories to deliver modular affordable housing at scale, as opposed to traditional site-built construction. Software with DES capabilities can help generate a process model that is a logical representation of resources and activities in a factory. Software with CAD-DES integration can leverage product-process data integration to help spatially visualize a DES model of the factory in the CAD environment. Software with multimethod simulation capabilities, widely used in the manufacturing industry, brings together DES, ABM, and SD in a single platform that allows visualization, quantification, analyses, and optimization at varying data fidelities. Near-real-time data from an existing factory can be directly plugged into multimethod simulation software so that the construction process simulation model is a near-accurate representation of the real-world factory conditions. This report provides insights into the use of simulation as an aid to integrate Lean concepts in factories, including guidelines for selecting the appropriate process simulation modeling method and software. These insights have been developed as part of ongoing process simulation modeling research, development, and demonstration projects at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory focused on how process simulation models can enable better integration of resilience, energy efficiency, and low-carbon design strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Monarch Initiative in 2024: an analytic platform integrating phenotypes, genes and diseases across species

Abstract Bridging the gap between genetic variations, environmental determinants, and phenotypic outcomes is critical for supporting clinical diagnosis and understanding mechanisms of diseases. It requires integrating open data at a global scale. The Monarch Initiative advances these goals by developing open ontologies, semantic data models, and knowledge graphs for translational research. The Monarch App is an integrated platform combining data about genes, phenotypes, and diseases across species. Monarch's APIs enable access to carefully curated datasets and advanced analysis tools that support the understanding and diagnosis of disease for diverse applications such as variant prioritization, deep phenotyping, and patient profile-matching. We have migrated our system into a scalable, cloud-based infrastructure; simplified Monarch's data ingestion and knowledge graph integration systems; enhanced data mapping and integration standards; and developed a new user interface with novel search and graph navigation features. Furthermore, we advanced Monarch's analytic tools by developing a customized plugin for OpenAI’s ChatGPT to increase the reliability of its responses about phenotypic data, allowing us to interrogate the knowledge in the Monarch graph using state-of-the-art Large Language Models. The resources of the Monarch Initiative can be found at monarchinitiative.org and its corresponding code repository at github.com/monarch-initiative/monarch-app.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗
NASA NTRS2013

TPSAS-NF1676L-17243-DND

This presentation captures ERA Project's effort in using integrated cost-schedule-risk analysis tool, identifying and capturing explicit relationships between program funds, schedule, and discrete risks. The project team merged a myriad of cost and schedule data for timely, objective, uncertainty analysis of the ITD's budget and schedule. The project team conducted detailed schedule uncertainty analysis showing schedule activities and how their interrelationships were impacted, representing an impressive advance beyond routine Gantt charts. Furthermore, the ERA Project collected discrete risk events including their impacts to costs and/or schedule and interwove these risks into cost and schedule logic networks, providing the foundation to conduct cost and schedule analyses. The team integrated this data into the analysis model, providing probabilistic results that were then used by the ERA Project's senior management for decision-making purposes. The ERA Project management team, through technical and pathfinder expertise in integrating cost, schedule, risk, and technical content, consistently provided risk-informed recommendations to Implementing Centers and ISRP senior management which ultimately ensured the successful ARMD Key Decision Point (KDP) review of the ERA Phase 2 ITD Portfolio and increased the likelihood of achieving technical objectives within cost and schedule constraints.

Gaudy M Bezos-O'Connor↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Physiologically Based Model of Creatinine Renal Disposition to Integrate Current Knowledge of Systems Parameters and Clinical Observations

Creatinine is the most common clinical biomarker of renal function. As a substrate for renal transporters, its secretion is susceptible to inhibition by drugs, resulting in transient increase in serum creatinine and false impression of damage to kidney. Novel physiologically based models for creatinine were developed here and (dis)qualified in a stepwise manner until consistency with clinical data. Data from a matrix of studies were integrated, including systems data (common to all models), proteomics‐informed in vitro – in vivo extrapolation of all relevant transporter clearances, exogenous administration of creatinine (to estimate endogenous synthesis rate), and inhibition of different renal transporters (11 perpetrator drugs considered for qualification during creatinine model development and verification on independent data sets). The proteomics‐informed bottom‐up approach resulted in the underprediction of creatinine renal secretion. Subsequently, creatinine‐trimethoprim clinical data were used to inform key model parameters in a reverse translation manner, highlighting best practices and challenges for middle‐out optimization of mechanistic models.

Scotcher, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed machine learning for building performance simulation-A review of a nascent field

Building performance simulation (BPS) is critical for understanding building dynamics and behavior, analyzing the performance of the built environment, optimizing energy efficiency, improving demand flexibility, and enhancing building resilience. However, conducting BPS is not trivial. Traditional BPS relies on accurate building energy models, which are primarily physics-based and heavily dependent on detailed building information, expert knowledge, and case-by-case model calibrations, significantly limiting their scalability. With the development of sensing technology and the increased availability of data, there is growing attention and interest in data-driven BPS. However, purely data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization ability and a lack of physical consistency, resulting in poor performance in real-world applications. To address these limitations, recent studies have begun integrating physics priors into data-driven models, a methodology known as physics-informed machine learning (PIML). PIML is an emerging field where its definitions, methodologies, evaluation criteria, application scenarios, and future directions remain open. To bridge those gaps, this study systematically reviews the state-of-the-art PIML for BPS, offering a comprehensive definition of PIML and comparing it to traditional BPS approaches regarding data requirements, modeling effort, performance, and computational cost. We also summarize the commonly used methodologies, validation approaches, application domains, available data sources, open-source packages, and testbeds. In addition, this study provides a general guideline for selecting appropriate PIML models based on BPS applications. Finally, this study identifies key challenges and outlines future research directions, providing a solid foundation and valuable insights to advance R&D of PIML in BPS.

Jiang, Zixin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capability

Water is one of our most important natural resources and is essential to our national economy and security. Multiple federal government agencies have mission elements that address national needs related to water. Each water-related agency champions a unique science and/or operational mission focused on advancing a portion of the nation’s ability to meet our water-related challenges. These diverse mission needs have engendered a rich and extensive base of water-related data and modeling capabilities. While useful for their intended purposes, these capabilities are not well integrated to address complex regional problems and overarching national problems. These major investments by a number of federal agencies, however, lay the foundation for an integrated hydro-terrestrial modeling and data infrastructure that will enhance knowledge, understanding, prediction, and management of the nation’s diverse water challenges. Creating a more seamless national hydro-terrestrial modeling and data capacity presents an enormous opportunity to advance operational as well as research capabilities leading to more effective water management. Advances are necessary not only in operational tools for forecasting but also in research to identify and resolve knowledge and data gaps that lead to unacceptable uncertainties in forecast outcomes. As such, close coordination across scientific, operational, and resource management communities is required. To this end, an interagency workshop on “Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capacity” was held at the National Science Foundation (NSF) headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia in September 2019, led jointly by the NSF, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with broader interagency support provided through an interagency steering committee. This workshop provided a venue to bring together representatives of water-related agencies and their scientific partners (including university researchers) to initiate and refine a vision for a national Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM) and data infrastructure and advance ideas towards its development. The workshop was designed to address three critical foci to advance the development of a national IHTM capacity: “Priority Water Challenges” around which to motivate and initiate development; Technical and methodological obstacles related to data and modeling; Organizational, structural, and cultural barriers that heretofore have impeded integration of capabilities across the federal and research landscapes. The following “Priority Water Challenge” domain areas represent targets for initiating development of the IHTM and were identified and selected in alignment with priorities of the administration’s Water Sub-Cabinet: (1) Nutrient loading, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms; (2) Water availability in the western United States; and (3) Extreme weather-related water hazards. These water challenges span agency mission boundaries and encompass a broad range of geographies, complex system dynamics and feedbacks, and critical processes spanning hydrological, climatic, and biophysical systems as well as land-use/land-cover, agricultural, built infrastructure, societal, economic, and decisional environments. These three Priority Water Challenges cannot be fully addressed without leveraging complementary and synergistic capabilities across multiple agencies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Monitoring system for high-tech equipment

Many organizations and automated data-processing systems are involved in analysis of the logistical support (ALS) of high-tech equipment. Therefore, the initial data and the results of analysis must be presented in standardized form. That calls for an integrated informational model describing all the relevant data elements, their attributes, and their relationships. In ALS, the instruments that monitor the operation of the high-tech equipment form an important component of the information system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Three-Tier Incremental Approach for Development of Smart Corridor Digital Twins

Development of an arterial smart corridor digital twin requires the integration of real time data streams, data storage, and simulation model execution. This process may be complex, time consuming, and susceptible to errors. To aid in smart corridor digital twin development this paper seeks to provide a framework, best practices, and development guidance. As such, a three-tier incremental approach to smart corridor digital twin development is presented. The paper highlights practical issues in digital twin construction along with key data challenges based on experiences from the development of digital twins for two large Smart Corridor deployments, one in Chattanooga, Tennessee, and the other in Atlanta, Georgia. The presented three-tier incremental approach includes: 1) development of a prepopulated offline simulation, 2) development of a pseudo digital twin that is driven by archived data, and 3) integration of real time data streams to create the online digital twin model. The three-tiered approach facilitates conducting multiple trials and scenarios with increasing complexity, allowing for incremental error processing and updating of the digital twin.

Saroj, Abhilasha↗
NASA NTRS2013

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Phase II Nevada Water Resources Data, Modeling, and Visualization (DMV) Center (Final Report)

Water is unquestionably a critical resource throughout the United States. In the semi-arid west -- an area stressed by increase in human population and sprawl of the built environment -- water is the most important limiting resource. Crucially, science must understand factors that affect availability and distribution of water. To sustain growing consumptive demand, science needs to translate understanding into reliable and robust predictions of availability under weather conditions that could be average but might be extreme. These predictions are needed to support current and long-term planning. Similar to the role of weather forecast and climate prediction, water prediction over short and long temporal scales can contribute to resource strategy, governmental policy and municipal infrastructure decisions, which are arguably tied to the natural variability and unnatural change to climate. Change in seasonal and annual temperature, precipitation, snowmelt, and runoff affect the distribution of water over large temporal and spatial scales, which impact the risk of flooding and the groundwater recharge. Anthropogenic influences and impacts increase the complexity and urgency of the challenge. The goal of this project has been to develop a decision support framework of data acquisition, digital modeling, and 3D visualization. This integrated framework consists of tools for compiling, discovering and projecting our understanding of processes that control the availability and distribution of water. The framework is intended to support the analysis of the complex interactions between processes that affect water supply, from controlled availability to either scarcity or deluge. The developed framework enables DRI to promote excellence in water resource management, particularly within the Lake Tahoe basin. In principle, this framework could be replicated for other watersheds throughout the United States. Phase II of this project builds upon the research conducted during Phase I, in which the hydrologic framework was investigated and the development initiated. Phase II concentrates on practical implementation of the earlier work but emphasizes applications to the hydrology of the Lake Tahoe basin. Phase 1 efforts have been refined and extended by creating a toolset for geographic information systems (GIS) that is usable for disparate types of geospatial and geo-referenced data. The toolset is intended to serve multiple users for a variety of applications. The web portal for internet access to hydrologic and remotely sensed product data, prototyped in Phase I, has been significantly enhanced. The portal provides high performance access to LANDSAT-derived data using techniques developed during the course of the project. The portal is interactive, and supports the geo-referenced display of hydrologic information derived from remotely sensed data, such as various vegetative indices used to calculate water consumption. The platform can serve both internal and external constituencies using inter-operating infrastructure that spans both sides of the DRI firewall. The platform is intended grow its supported data assets and to serve as a template for replication to other geographic areas. An unanticipated development during the project was the use of ArcGIS software on a new computer system, called the IBM PureSytems, and the parallel use of the systems for faster, more efficient image processing. Additional data, independent of the portal, was collected within the Sagehen basin and provides detailed information regarding the processes that control hydrologic responses within mountain watersheds. The newly collected data include elevation, evapotranspiration, energy balance and remotely sensed snow-pack data. A Lake Tahoe basin hydrologic model has been developed, in part to help predict the hydrologic impacts of climate change. The model couples both the surface and subsurface hydrology, with the two components having been independently calibrated. Results from the coupled simulations involving both surface water and groundwater processes show that it is possible to fairly accurately simulate lake effects and water budget variables over a wide range of dry and wet cycles in the historical record. The Lake Tahoe basin is representative of the hydrology, topography and climate throughout the Sierra Nevada Range, and the entire model development is prototypical of the efforts required to replicate the decision support framework to other locales. The Lake Tahoe model in particular, could allow water managers to evaluate more accurately components of the water budget (ET, runoff, groundwater, etc) and to answer important questions regarding water resources in northern Nevada. This report discusses the geographic scale and the hydrologic complexity of the calibrated model developed as part of this project, as well as simulation results for historical and future climate projects To enable human-driven data exploration and discovery, de novo software for a globalized rendering module that extends the capability of our evolving custom visualization engine from Phase I (called SMEngine) has been developed. The new rendering component, called Horizon, supports terrain rendering capable of displaying and interrogating both remotely sensed and modeled data. The development of Horizon necessitated adaptation of the visualization engine to allow extensible integration of components such as the global rendering module and support for associated features. The resulting software is general in its GIS capability, but a specific Lake Tahoe visualization application suitable for immersive decision support in the DRIVE6 virtual reality facility has been developed. During the development, various features to enhance the value of the visualization experience were explored, including the use of hyperspectral image overlays. An over-arching goal of the visualization aspect of the project has been to develop and demonstrate the CAVE (CAVE Automatic Virtual Environment) as a practical tool for hydrologic research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Iterative ML and Experiments for Emerging VOCs

SAND2026-17074O Iterative ML and Experiments for Emerging VOCs is a tool that analyzes and predicts the behaviors of SARS-CoV-2 variants. It processes experimental data on ACE2 (the receptor for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that allows it to infect the cell) and antibody binding using machine learning models, including neural networks, to forecast ACE2 interactions and variant expression. The tool employs transfer learning and global epistasis modeling, integrating public datasets with proprietary data to enhance prediction accuracy. Additionally, it fits concentration-response curves to determine dissociation constants and generates visualizations to support research findings, thereby aiding in the identification of new antibodies for emerging variants of concern. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Sheffield, Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), ↗
NASA NTRS1974

The economic impact of remote sensing data as the source of nonpoint pollution monitoring and control

Nonpoint pollution of streams with sediment as a result of runoff from alternative uses of land has become a socially unacceptable product of economic activity. This report describes a research approach to economically achieve correction of the nonpoint pollution problem. The research approach integrates the economic model with those data which may be obtainable from remotely sensed sources. The economic problem involves measurement of the direct benefits and costs associated with the changes in land management activities necessary to reduce the level of nonpoint pollution. Remotely sensed data from ERTS-1 may provide some of the information required for the economic model which indicates efficient solutions to the nonpoint pollution problem. Three classes of data (i.e., soil categories, vegetative cover, and water turbidity) have the potential to be measured by ERTS-1 systems. There is substantial research which indicates the ability of ERTS-1 to measure these classes of data under selected conditions.

Miller, W. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dissemination of Global Flood Severity and Surface Water Mapping using Remote Sensing Data to Global Stakeholders

Flooding is a natural event that occurs frequently with high severity worldwide, responsible for significant societal and economic impacts. Disaster managers face significant challenges managing essential information for preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. The development of an open access, global flood alerting system for effective identification of flood impacted areas, classification of potential impacts, and the formulation of effective emergency response measures requires the incorporation of a wide variety of flood models and remote sensing data sources from multiple platforms. NASA is currently funding projects focused on flood forecasting, post-event flood mapping, flood depth estimation and pre-event flood severity estimation using Earth observation (EO) datasets and derived flood products. A new initiative in the Disasters Program is underway to disseminate flood products from different hydrologic models and sensors to global stakeholders via Pacific Disaster Center’s DisasterAWARE®, NASA’s Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. This initiative focuses on improving response capacity and use of EO products in near real-time by a broader community for resource planning in case of extreme events. As part of this initiative, we have deployed Model of Models (MoM) – an open-source ensemble approach, that integrates outputs from hydrologic models and EO data from optical imagery to assess flood severity daily at sub-watershed level globally. The MoM output is integrated with the incident event system of DisasterAWARE to generate flood severity risk and flood impact boundaries, which are disseminated via the DisasterAWARE platform to different stakeholders globally for decision-making and response efforts. The next step will focus on using MoM outputs to estimate flood depth and extent mapping using high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery, impact assessment using optical imagery and population datasets, and damage estimation using critical infrastructure datasets, which would be disseminated via DisasterAWARE to decision-makers, emergency managers and first responders around the world.

flood↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generalized Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation [Slides]

Bayesian Monte Carlo is a tool to address imperfect data & models, non-linear models, non-normal PDFs, and integration of differential and integral data. Simple propagation to criticality shows effects of new $\mathcal{L}$($β|z,γ$).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Reviews and syntheses: Four decades of modeling methane cycling in terrestrial ecosystems

Abstract. Over the past 4 decades, a number of numerical models have been developed to quantify the magnitude, investigate the spatial and temporal variations, and understand the underlying mechanisms and environmental controls of methane (CH4) fluxes within terrestrial ecosystems. These CH4 models are also used for integrating multi-scale CH4 data, such as laboratory-based incubation and molecular analysis, field observational experiments, remote sensing, and aircraft-based measurements across a variety of terrestrial ecosystems. Here we summarize 40 terrestrial CH4 models to characterize their strengths and weaknesses and to suggest a roadmap for future model improvement and application. Our key findings are that (1) the focus of CH4 models has shifted from theoretical to site- and regional-level applications over the past 4 decades, (2) large discrepancies exist among models in terms of representing CH4 processes and their environmental controls, and (3) significant data–model and model–model mismatches are partially attributed to different representations of landscape characterization and inundation dynamics. Three areas for future improvements and applications of terrestrial CH4 models are that (1) CH4 models should more explicitly represent the mechanisms underlying land–atmosphere CH4 exchange, with an emphasis on improving and validating individual CH4 processes over depth and horizontal space, (2) models should be developed that are capable of simulating CH4 emissions across highly heterogeneous spatial and temporal scales, particularly hot moments and hotspots, and (3) efforts should be invested to develop model benchmarking frameworks that can easily be used for model improvement, evaluation, and integration with data from molecular to global scales. These improvements in CH4 models would be beneficial for the Earth system models and further simulation of climate–carbon cycle feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗