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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Framework to select robust energy retrofit measures for residential communities

Residential building energy retrofits are essential for enhancing environmental sustainability and reducing energy costs. The selection of retrofit measures is influenced by factors such as building systems, occupant behavior, government policy, weather variability, and climate change, all of which can significantly impact energy performance. Compared to retrofitting individual homes, evaluating and selecting optimal retrofit solutions for an entire community is challenging due to diverse residential compositions and variability present. Therefore, engineering robustness is crucial for ensuring consistent energy performance and resilience across different conditions. In this context, robustness refers to the ability of a retrofit measure to maintain its functionality and remain an optimal choice despite external disturbances or changes in inputs and conditions. This study presents a framework for evaluating the robustness of multiple retrofit measures across various building systems, occupant behaviors, and environmental scenarios at the community level. The framework comprises five key steps: scenario model development, integration of the National Residential Efficiency Measures database, energy performance simulation, cost-benefit aggregation, and retrofit solution selection. Each step enhances the framework’s robustness by incorporating the diversity of building characteristics, occupant behaviors, environmental conditions, retrofit options, and evaluation criteria. The framework’s effectiveness is demonstrated through a case study in southern Michigan in the United States, which includes 63 one-story single-family houses, 121 two-story single-family houses, and 8 townhouses. The study identifies furnace retrofits as the most robust solution for the entire community, consistently achieving source energy reductions of 4.7 %–8.0 % and payback period of 10–20 years across various scenarios. These findings are consistent with previous research, indicating the framework’s potential for broader applications in optimizing community-scale residential energy retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic modelling and control strategy of a temperature-driven metal hydride cooling system for buildings

A temperature-driven coupled metal hydride (MH) based thermal energy storage (TES) system can allow to shave and shift the peak energy demand in buildings. The high energy density and long-term (seasonal) energy storage capability are its major advantages over other energy storage methods. The dynamic nature of the MH operation, however, requires controlled hydrogen transfer between the coupled MHs at a rate needed to meet the building's transient load. While temperature-driven MH systems are studied in the literature, their application in buildings and control are scarcely reported. Here, this paper presents a control-based dynamic modeling of the temperature-driven coupled MH-TES system for building cooling applications. The dynamic model is developed in MATLAB(R) Simulink environment, considering the thermodynamic and kinetic behaviors of the MH systems. Based on a preliminary analysis of a property database of over 337 hydrides, we select around 1600 MH pairs suitable for building cooling applications. Each of these MH pairs is studied for their performance using the dynamic model, and among all, Zr 0.76 Ti 0.24 Ni 1.16 Mn 0.63 V 0.14 Fe 0.18 -Ti 0.85 Zr 0.15 Cr 1.2 Mn 0.8 MH pair showed fast dynamics along with high coefficient of performance (COP) of 0.71. A parametric investigation is performed on this MH pair to understand the effect of operating temperatures. Finally, three proportional-integral (PI) feedback controllers are investigated to regulate the temperature, pressure and mass exchange between the coupled MH pairs. The developed PI controller is sufficiently capable of rejecting the signal noise from the hydrogen flow and internal heat exchange processes with root mean square error of 5.78 W between reference and actual cooling load.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Refining seasonal performance metrics for room air-conditioning in emerging markets: Integrating building simulations with real-world equipment performance data

Buildings significantly impact worldwide energy consumption, emphasizing the need to reduce the cooling energy demand, especially in warm climates. Minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and seasonal performance metrics such as the Cooling Seasonal Performance Factor (CSPF) are crucial for improving room air conditioning (RAC) efficiency. However, challenges remain, particularly in emerging markets like Brazil, where seasonal performance metrics have recently been introduced. This study assesses the factors influencing country-level seasonal efficiency metrics and proposes a framework to refine these calculations by considering local climates and expected RAC usage in real-world households via building simulations. Key considerations include outdoor air temperature binning for different climates, RAC usage patterns (i.e., daytime and nighttime usages), envelope thermal performance of households, and urban heat island (UHI) effects. The results reveal that CSPF values can vary significantly based on climate conditions, with observed CSPF ranging from 4.10 to 11.59 Wh/Wh across 577 Brazilian climates. The inclusion of UHI effects led to a reduction in CSPF values by up to 29% during nighttime operations in hot urban areas. Additionally, building envelope efficiency showed contrasting impacts on RAC performance, with CSPFs reaching up to 15.35 Wh/Wh under specific optimized conditions. These findings highlight the need for transparent policymaking in RAC performance databases, facilitating the application of approaches like those proposed in this study and supporting diverse stakeholders in decision-making.

Bavaresco, Mateus↗
DOE OSTI2024

What to expect when you're expecting engagement: Delivering procedural justice in large-scale solar energy deployment

Community engagement in the planning process to build large-scale solar (LSS) projects can win local support and advance procedural justice. However, an understanding of community engagement in current LSS development is lacking. Using responses from a U.S. nationwide survey (n = 979) of residential neighbors living within 3 miles (4.8 km) of completed LSS projects (i.e. “solar neighbors”) and project details from the U.S. Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database (USPVDB), this study seeks to answer the following questions: How are solar neighbors' perceptions of community engagement associated with their attitudes toward their LSS projects? How do solar neighbors' perceptions of community engagement compare to their expectations? And, how do neighbors explain what they perceived about the planning process? We answer these questions using mixed methods, including regression modeling, a new gap analysis technique, and qualitative coding. We find that higher perceived engagement is associated with more positive attitudes toward the project, even when controlling for respondents who acted in opposition. Supporters and opponents alike expect more engagement than they perceived and information about projects both before construction and after operation is lacking. Awareness and engagement expectations increase at certain project size and proximity thresholds. However, most neighbors expect the public to offer input during engagement, but not make decisions. We contextualize these findings with explanatory comments from respondents.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optical diagnostic design for measuring the radiation front with a mid-leg pumped divertor on DIII-D

The design of an optical diagnostic system to localize the radiation front in a mid-leg pumped divertor configuration on DIII-D is presented. Divertor detachment is a key mechanism for handling power exhaust in tokamaks, and mid-leg pumping offers a promising approach to radiatively dissipate power while maintaining acceptable core performance. To predict the location of the radiation front and design a spectroscopic diagnostic to measure its position, a database of SOLPS-ITER simulations across a range of input powers and gas puffing rates representative of DIII-D operation was employed. These simulations provide self-consistent plasma backgrounds for a Cherab-Raysect synthetic diagnostic framework, which incorporates detailed tokamak geometry and physically accurate ray-tracing. Synthetic simulations of optical sightlines and viewing cone geometry were used to calculate line-integrated emission from the plasma, particularly of the C III 465 nm line, to serve as a proxy for the T e ≈ 7 − 10 eV temperature region associated with the onset and evolution of divertor detachment. Neutral deuterium emission is also evaluated for comparison. The synthetic diagnostic is used to assess the performance of existing DIII-D optical systems, including filterscopes and the Multichord Divertor Spectrometer, and to optimize line-of-sight placement within mechanical and installation constraints. The results provide quantitative guidance for diagnostic implementation on DIII-D and demonstrate the advantage of integrated synthetic diagnostics for divertor design studies and future advanced divertor concepts.

Cherab↗
DOE OSTI2026

The solubility of ErPO 4 and Er speciation in hydrothermal fluids at varying pH and salinity between 350 and 450 °C

The rare earth elements (REE) are important for the green-energy transition and can be incorporated into the REE phosphates, such as xenotime-(Y), which also hosts heavy REE (Tb– Lu). Xenotime-(Y) is a common accessory mineral in metamorphic rocks and a range of mineral deposits where it controls the mobility of heavy REE, however, the impact of high temperature aqueous fluids on the behavior of heavy REE is largely unknown. Thermodynamic modeling can be utilized as a tool to predict the mobility of REE in hydrothermal aqueous fluids, but must be supported by accurate experimental data. Here, we measured the solubility of endmember synthetic xenotime-structured ErPO4 in NaCl-HCl-NaOH-bearing aqueous solutions at 350 °C and water vapor saturation pressure, at 400 and at 450 °C and 500 bar using batch-type Inconel reactors. Erbium speciation was investigated as a function of pH from 2.8 to 8, where Er chloride species are predominant at acidic conditions (pH <3) and Er hydroxyl complexes are predominant at near- neutral to alkaline conditions (pH >3). At pH 7–9, the measured ErPO 4 solubility (-9.8 to -7.5 log m Er ) is up to 2.5 orders of magnitude lower than thermodynamic predictions (-9.4 to -6.7 log m Er ) using existing thermodynamic databases. At pH 2–3, the predicted ErPO 4 solubility is ~0.5 orders of magnitude higher at 350 °C and ~1 order of magnitude lower at 450 °C compared to experimentally measured Er concentrations. The thermodynamic properties of aqueous Er species were therefore revised in this study. The partial molal Gibbs energy of formation (Δ f G 0 T,P ) for aqueous Er hydroxyl and chloride species are optimized using GEMSFITS and the logarithmic formation constants (logβ n ( Cl,OH) ) were derived at each experimental temperature and pressure. The updated thermodynamic properties for Er hydroxyl species (Er(OH) +2 , Er(OH) 2 + , and Er(OH) 3 0 ) show that their stability shifts to more acidic conditions at and below 400 °C. The Er chloride species (ErCl +2 and ErCl 2 + ) show increased stability compared to Er hydroxyl species at temperatures of 450 °C and 0.01 mol/kg NaCl. The updated thermodynamic properties are implemented into the GEM-Selektor modeling package to investigate the mobility of Er in saline hydrothermal fluids in equilibrium with alkaline rocks. Importantly, the updated properties for Er hydroxyl species result in low Er solubility at rock equilibrated pH conditions due to an expanded hydroxyl predominance zone, but lower aqueous complex stability overall, whereas previous models suggest greater stability for aqueous Er species. Furthermore, ErPO 4 solubility increases with decreasing temperature due to the deprotonation of HCl, which increases the acidity of hydrothermal fluids and the availability of Cl - to complex with the REE. These simulations highlight how fluid-rock reaction and temperature affect the mobility of REE in hydrothermal ore-forming systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating water dynamics related to pedogenesis across space and time: Implications for four-dimensional digital soil mapping

Digital soil mapping (DSM) relies on machine-learning and geostatistics to represent soil property observations across space. DSM techniques are powerful but often empirical, being limited to the quality and density of point samples. Water dynamics are closely related to soil variability, and the physics that govern water movement are well known. Hydrological properties can hence be simulated by physical models through space and time, unveiling key characteristics about soils. We propose the use of hydrologic models to map soils across the surface (2D), depth (1D), and time (1D)–which provides a 4D approach to digital soil mapping (4DSM). The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was applied to a watershed currently under pasture. Moisture sensors and wells were installed at different depths in the watershed on summit, sideslope and toeslope positions to validate the model. DHSVM simulations of soil moisture distribution and depth to saturation were performed during the hydrological year (October 2008-September 2009). Clusters of similar pixels based on soil moisture values were determined using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to align temporal data and K-means. Clustering was performed both seasonally and for the entire year. Temporal patterns simulated by DHSVM matched measurements given by moisture sensors and wells. Seasonal clusters differed from the annual cluster. Distinct clusters were observed for each season and with depth, showing that spatiotemporal soil variability is lost when statically assessing soils. Spatiotemporal clusters corroborated field observations of fragipan occurrence not explicitly spatially mapped by Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO). If a connection can be made between water and soils, static and dynamic soil variability can be predicted using physically based hydrologic models. Hydrologic models can benefit soil mapping by enabling reliable 4D simulation of water dynamics, which are fundamental to soil variability and soil classification and directly relate to biological, physical and chemical soil processes not captured by typical soil sampling protocols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping wall-to-wall fractional cover of Arctic tundra plant functional types in Alaska using 20-m spatial resolution satellite imagery and harmonized plot observations

Estimates of fractional cover (fCover) across given land surfaces are used to assess, and often model, vegetation composition and diversity, which are crucial for understanding the health and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing provides a useful means for scaling local, plot-measured fCover estimates to regional scales. Leveraging a recently synthesized and harmonized plot database, this study generated wall-to-wall maps of fCover for six Alaskan-Arctic plant functional types (PFT), including non-vascular plants, forbs, graminoids, and deciduous and evergreen shrubs, using 20-m satellite data (Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ArcticDEM) using a machine learning regression approach, specifically the random forest (RF) algorithm, which is well-suited for handling nonlinear relationships and high-dimensional satellite datasets. This study additionally addressed the spatio-temporal inconsistencies e.g., sampling scale, plot size, and collection year in plot measured fCover by adopting a multivariate outlier detection approach—Cook’s distance—to identify high-quality plots for model training and validation. Our approach achieves high accuracy (R 2 = 0.59–0.93, root mean squared errors = 0.02–0.10 for all PFTs) between plot-observed and satellite-derived fCover when using high-quality plot samples. The mapped fCover characterizes the spatial patterns of different PFTs across the tundra biome at a 20-m resolution, providing key information needed for improved representation of Arctic tundra vegetation in terrestrial biosphere models to better understand climate-vegetation feedback across the Arctic tundra.

Arctic tundra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life cycle assessment of coir fiber-reinforced composites for automotive applications

Past decades have seen an increasing prevalence of natural fiber-reinforced composites (NFRCs) due to growing conscientiousness around sustainability and a push towards vehicle lightweighting. The environmentally friendly and sustainable claims of NFRCs need to be validated due to their large variability and variety, particularly where material substitutions are concerned, such as in substituting glass fiber with natural fiber. Additionally, the objective of this work is to determine the cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) associated with an automotive part (of volume 0.001 m3) made from 40 wt% coir fiber-reinforced polypropylene (PP) and compared with a similar part made from 40 wt% glass fiber reinforced PP. SimaPro v. 9.0.0.49 was used for the analysis, whereas inventory data were collected from databases, such as Ecoinvent 3, Transportation Energy Databook, Greet model 2022, and published papers. The results showed that CED and GHG associated with the coir fiber-reinforced composite part were lower than the glass fiber-reinforced composite part for both cradle-to-gate (~34–40%) and cradle-to-grave (excluding end-of-life) (~24%) analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital bead modeling for wire-arc directed energy deposition

Prediction of 2D cross-section and full 3D geometry for stacked weld beads is critical for the outcome of wire-arc directed energy deposition (DED) parts; however, most additive path planning software packages model beads as extrusions of a rectangle. Weld beads are not rectangular, and the resulting shape is dependent upon physics effects at the moment of deposition. Physics phenomena such as the geometry of the underlying surface, the heat input of the welding mode, and the direction of gravity contribute to bead shape. Here, this paper presents a novel implicit modeling method that discretizes a 2D area or 3D volume of space into pixels or voxels and constructs fields based on these physics phenomena. The fields are combined using a weighting scheme trained on 3D scan measurements of welds and wire-arc DED prints. Pixels or voxels are added until the known amount of deposited volume has been achieved. Thereby, a strong conservation of mass principle is applied to the process. Utilizing machine learning techniques, the present model can be trained on a database of scans allowing for the representation of a wide variety of prints. Results show that this method can produce predictions with realistic bead morphology and sub-millimeter form error.

Bead geometry modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design guidance for ferrites: Insights from density functional theory on magnetic properties

A grand challenge in materials research is identifying the relationship between composition and performance. Herein, we explore this relationship for magnetic properties, specifically magnetic saturation (M s ) and magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy (K) of ferrites. Ferrites are materials derived from magnetite (chemical formula = Fe 3 O 4 ) that comprise metallic elements such as Fe, Mn, Ni, Co, Cu and Zn. Experimentally, synthesizing and characterizing ferrites is time consuming. Further, selection of compositions to achieve particular magnetic properties currently relies on intuition. To address this, in this work, density functional theory (DFT) is used to predict M s and K for 571 ferrite structures. These structures are primarily double-substituted non-stoichiometric ferrites with formulae M1 x M2 y Fe 3–x–y O 4 , where M1 and M2 can be Mn, Ni, Co, Cu and/or Zn and 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 and y = 1–x. Calculated magnetic properties for the structures in this study vary from 0.04 × 10 5 to 9.6 × 10 5 A m −1 for M s and from 0.02 × 10 5 to 14.08 × 10 5 J m −3 for K. All structures are made publicly available in a FAIR database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature and Composition Dependence Modeling of Viscosity and Electrical Conductivity of Low-Activity Waste Glass Melts

The development of models that accurately relate the properties of a glass melt to its temperature and composition is important for glass formulation, melter control, and modeling the melt flow, refractory corrosion, and production rate. Using a database consisting of more than 4,000 data points measured between 900 °C and 1250 °C for over 600 unique low-activity waste glass compositions, we developed models for the melt viscosity and electrical conductivity. Models based on the Gaussian process regression approach outperformed models based on the Vogel–Fulcher–Tammann equation according to four standard metrics and yielded reliable prediction intervals. The models found primarily linear effects between properties and individual components, except for the effect of the Na 2 O mass fraction on the electrical conductivity. The effects were found to be consistent with current theories on physical processes involved with those properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Low Activity Waste Glass Optimization with Property Models from Machine Learning, Part 2: Experimental Validation and Active Learning

The United States Department of Energy is responsible for managing legacy nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. To treat the waste, it is planned as the current baseline to separately vitrify low-activity waste (LAW) and high-level waste fractions. Previously, machine learning (ML) based glass property models (e.g., chemical durability, viscosity, electrical conductivity and SO3 solubility) were developed with prediction uncertainties. A waste glass optimization approach was then established to enable the capability of using these ML models in LAW glass formulation. In this study, the previous ML models were first experimentally validated, and the results were incorporated back into the database to update the ML models. The updated models and formulations showed increased waste loading while reducing the failure rate, demonstrating improved predictive accuracy, reduced uncertainties, and the effectiveness of active learning in guiding high-dimensional, nonlinear LAW glass design. This represents the first experimental validation of ML based LAW glass formulation, with practical benefits such as higher waste loading, shorter mission duration, and lower operational risk.

Lu, Xiaonan (ORCID:0000000179708148)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A critical analysis of U-Pu-Zr phase transitions using calorimetric, microstructural, and phase equilibria data

Metallic fuels consisting primarily of uranium, plutonium, and zirconium (U-Pu-Zr) are a leading material candidate for fast-spectrum nuclear reactors. Early demonstration programs proved the principle of safe and efficient fast reactor operation, however there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the phase equilibria and microstructural evolution across the ternary composition space. Quantitative phase formation and identification measurements are scarce and often incomplete, with studies reporting either phase transition temperatures or phase identification data, but not both from the same specimens. In this study, we critically compared experimental and calculated phase transition data and correlated with the microstructure and phase characterization data of as-cast and annealed U-Pu-Zr alloys. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was used to measure phase transitions in the subsolidus regions (723−948 K) of three ternary U-Pu-Zr alloys with similar plutonium concentrations but various U/Zr ratios. Due to sluggish kinetics and narrow ranges of phase stability, complex peaks required the use of a Frazier-Suzuki peak fitting algorithm to deconvolute and calculate transition peak temperatures and enthalpies. We also identified trends of phase transition behavior by critically comparing our DSC data with previous phase transition measurements as well as historical and calculated phase equilibrium diagrams. In conclusion, this provides a critical approach for benchmarking and assessing the quality of new U-Pu-Zr phase equilibria data prior to its incorporation into nuclear material databases.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of spacer grids on high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal

Increasing the fuel burnup limit in light-water reactors to improve fuel cycle economics requires a strong technical foundation. Experimental observations from the Halden and Studsvik programs have revealed severe fuel fragmentation during loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, highlighting the need for additional technical evaluation. Consequently, further LOCA test data are needed to complement existing findings and improve the understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) behavior. Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Severe Accident Test Station has played a significant role in advancing the understanding of high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal phenomena. One remaining gap in the available experimental database is the effect of fuel assembly structural features on cladding deformation behavior during a LOCA, and more specifically, their impact on the fuel’s ability to fragment, relocate, and disperse. Recent analyses using the BISON fuel performance code suggest that cladding deformation near grid spacers will remain below the 3% threshold that has been reported in the NRC Research Information Letter, indicating that the cladding could remain mechanically constrained during the LOCA event. This paper builds upon the BISON analyses to design and conduct a series of out-of-cell tests aimed at further evaluating cladding deformation in and around grid spacers. In addition, these tests were used to assess local cladding temperature conditions and compare them against analytical predictions in order to better replicate expected in-reactor behavior. Finally, an in-cell high-burnup LOCA test was designed and performed to evaluate the effects of a grid spacer, or cladding restraint, on fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility. The high-burnup test results differed from those of historical LOCA experiments, with a recorded rupture temperature of 861°C. Two ballooned regions and corresponding rupture openings were observed, with rupture widths of approximately 0.64 mm for both ruptures and rupture lengths of 4.8 mm and 5.6 mm, respectively.

Capps, Nathan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

A product data network to enable faster, easier, and better planning of building envelopes

The building envelopes contributes significantly to the energy-efficiency of the building. Building performance simulation has made it possible to compare façade technologies regarding energy demand, daylighting, thermal and visual comfort in detail. Planners, such as architects and engineers, need experience to find product data with the right quality and level of detail, and to process the data to fit the calculation and the application. In the available time, planners can compare only a limited number of products, which means that better solutions could go unnoticed. This paper presents a new concept for making product data easily accessible for building façade planning. The concept consists of a network of databases for the efficient exchange and use of optical and calorimetric data of glazing units, shading devices, and combinations of both. The paper presents the research questions, an analysis of the current challenges, six design goals for the product data network and its implementation together with a discussion. Many product data sources can be connected to many planning software applications via the specified application programming interface. When planning software connects to the product data network, the planning of building envelopes can be much faster because planners do not need to spend so much time to search and process product data manually. The planning of building envelopes can also become much easier, especially for planners with limited experience. They do not need to understand all the details about which data fits which calculation if the software company implements this. The planning of building envelopes can become much more reliable when software companies validate their use of the product data network, because the current manual process is prone to errors. The planning of building envelopes can also improve because more products can be compared in the available time, allowing better solutions to be found.

Maurer, Christoph↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning for the redox potential prediction of molecules in organic redox flow battery

Here, organic redox flow batteries (ORFB) are recognized as an innovative technology for the large-scale storage of renewable energy. The redox potential of organic redox-active molecules plays a vital role in their performance. Advanced screening techniques like high-throughput experiment and machine learning (ML) have significantly enhanced organic material performance and transformed the field of ORFB. However, the scarcity of experimental data poses a considerable challenge for ML model development in this domain. In our study, we developed lightweight graph-based Gaussian process regression (GPR) models with GPU-accelerated marginalized graph kernel and hybrid kernel to predict the redox potentials of organic redox-active molecules for ORFBs, specifically focusing on small datasets. To evaluate model accuracy, we created a new experimental database of organic redox-active molecules by the data from hundreds of published papers and assembled previous computational datasets. We also considered some key parameters, such as pH conditions and solvent type, to assess their impact on redox potential prediction. Our GPR model predicted redox potentials with high accuracy across all datasets using minimal training data. The study provides powerful tools for molecule screening and design and delivers valuable guidance on designing training datasets for costly experiments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗