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At least 505 records · Page 28

Assessing the Skill of Chlorophyll Forecasts: Latest Development and Challenges Ahead Using the Case of the Equatorial Pacific

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Nino event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram chl L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram chl L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Nino events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

El Nin↗

Exploring the ENSO modulation of the QBO periods with GISS E2.2 models

Observational studies have shown that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The downward propagation of the QBO tends to speed up and slow down during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. Recent results from general circulation models have indicated that the ENSO modulation of the QBO requires a relatively high horizontal resolution, and that it does not show up in the climate models with parameterized but temporally constant gravity wave sources. Here, we demonstrate that the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) E2.2 models can capture the observed ENSO modulation of the QBO period with a horizontal resolution of 2 ∘ latitude by 2.5 ∘ longitude but with its gravity wave sources being parameterized interactively. This is because El Niño events lead to more vigorous gravity wave sources generating more absolute momentum fluxes over the equatorial belt, as well as less filtering of these waves into the tropical lower stratosphere through a weakening of the Walker circulation. Various components of the ENSO system, such as the sea surface temperatures, the convective activities, and the Walker circulation, are intimately involved in the generation and propagation of parameterized gravity waves, through which ENSO modulates the QBO period in GISS E2.2 models.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation↗

Dispersive Charge Transfer State Electroluminescence in Organic Solar Cells

Abstract The notion of quasi‐equilibrium is central to most solar cells; however, it has been questioned in organic photovoltaics (OPVs) owing to strong energetic disorder that frustrates efficient relaxation of electrons and holes within their respective density of states (DOS). Here, modulation electroluminescence (EL) spectroscopy is applied to OPVs and it is found that the frequency response of charge transfer (CT) state EL on the high energy side of the spectrum differs from that of the low energy side. This observation confirms that static disorder contributes substantially to the linewidth of the steady‐state EL spectrum and is unambiguous proof that the distribution of CT states formed by electrical injection in the dark is not in quasi‐equilibrium. These results emphasize the need for caution when analyzing OPV cells on the basis of reciprocity models that assume quasi‐equilibrium holds, and highlight a new method to study this unusual aspect of OPV operation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

UV-Induced Degradation and Associated Metastability in TOPCon Photovoltaic Modules: Understanding Kinetics and Cell Variance

Tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules are dominating the PV market, but they may be susceptible to degradation under ultraviolet (UV)-containing light. Quantifying the impacts of UV-induced degradation (UVID) is complicated by an associated metastability causing further degradation under dark storage and rapid recovery under sunlight. Here, we study modules that have -2.3% to -3.2% nonrecoverable UVID loss after 60 kWh/m2 dose of 340 nm light and additional recoverable loss under dark storage. We use in situ electroluminescence (EL) imaging to characterize the post-UVID metastability at the module level. The cell-by-cell dark degradation and recovery kinetics span a wide range from +6% to -70% changes in EL intensity after 520 h of dark storage, which returns to +- 4% of the initial post-UVID EL intensity after illumination. The kinetics follow double exponential rates with dark storage degradation time constants of 345 and 45 h, and UV light recovery time constants of 5 min and 36 s. We propose that this is consistent with prior reports of kinetics for light-soaking metastability in Al2O3 passivation. Finally, we further show that cells having high UVID also have injection-dependent effective carrier lifetimes and significant intra-cell variance, suggesting possible origins of processing inconsistency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Accelerated Stress Testing of Perovskite Photovoltaic Modules: Differentiating Degradation Modes with Electroluminescence Imaging

Herein, electroluminescence (EL) and thermal imaging are used to examine p–i–n metal halide perovskite (MHP) photovoltaic (PV) mini-modules (MA0.6FA0.4PbI3, 20 cells, 78 cm2) before and after indoor-accelerated stress testing or outdoor deployment. Distinct spatial patterns in the EL images emerge, which depend on the external stress conditions experienced by the mini-module. Imaging results highlight a distribution of dark speckle features that dominate after UV stress, attributed to widespread interfacial contact degradation. Lateral intensity gradients across cells dominate after thermal cycling (TC) stress, attributed to current crowding near scribe defects. While current–voltage analysis alone does not give full insight on the degradation process, this study shows that distinct degradation modes can be further defined by multimodal electro-optical imaging (i.e., EL combined with photoluminescence and dark lock-in thermography). Neither UV exposure nor TC-accelerated stress testing alone replicates the same degradation signatures observed after outdoor deployment, suggesting that multiple degradation modes occur under concurrent stressors outdoors. Finally, spatial characterization of degradation modes in MHP PV mini-modules before and after accelerated stress testing lays the groundwork for developing targeted accelerated stress testing procedures through comparison with outdoor aging.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Drought shifts dissolved organic matter sources from above- to belowground and stress-induced processes in Amazon white-sand forests

White-sand forests contribute significantly to dissolved organic matter (DOM) production in the central Amazon, forming blackwater rivers that dominate organic matter export from the Amazon basin to the ocean. Despite their importance in controlling DOM export, white-sand forests are understudied, and it remains unclear whether systematic changes in the formation of blackwater DOM occur and how seasonal variations and extremes like El Niño-associated droughts impact them. We collected soil porewater from two central Amazon white-sand forests for two years, spanning a wet La Niña year followed by an El Niño drought year. The molecular composition of DOM was analyzed using high-resolution mass spectrometry, and correlation network analysis was employed to identify ecologically meaningful DOM subsets. Using additional chemical characterization, database annotations, correlation with 14C-age of DOM and climatic variables, and ecological null modeling, we propose five distinct DOM sources: plant litter and throughfall, soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition, root exudation, and two drought response subsets of likely microbial and plant origin. During drought conditions, aboveground plant-derived compounds decreased, while SOM products, root exudates, and drought response compounds increased. These drought responses were qualitatively similar in both years but notably amplified in the drier El Niño year. Drought amplified deterministic control over DOM composition, indicating that DOM reflected directed biological responses and that future droughts are likely to generate similar shifts. Overall, drought substantially altered belowground carbon cycling by shifting DOM sources and inducing stress responses, effects expected to recur and potentially intensify under future climate scenarios.

Lange, Dan F.↗

Explainable artificial intelligence relates perovskite luminescence images to current-voltage metrics

As the demand for low-cost, high-efficiency solar energy technologies grows, metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells have emerged as a promising candidate for next-generation photovoltaics due to their high power conversion efficiencies. However, their poor durability and issues with manufacturing consistency remain significant barriers to commercialization. In this work, we develop deep learning models to support materials characterization and provide insight into features and processes influencing performance. The models are trained using transfer learning of a pretrained model to predict relevant current-voltage (IV) metrics based on different combinations of input electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL) images of MHP devices. We examine which image types are most informative in accurately predicting different IV metrics. Additionally, we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to provide insights into specific spatial features in the devices that drive differences in performance. We find that stabilized luminescence images (e.g. those collected after biasing the devices for at least 1 min) are better for predicting metrics of open-circuit voltage (by PL) and short-circuit current (by PL with EL), but that predicting fill factor and overall power output may use the time-evolution of EL images. Based on attribution masks generated by integrated gradients for each device performance metric, we further suggest different loss mechanisms associated with categories of large and small spatial defects. Overall, this case study highlights the potential applicability of XAI methodology for streamlining MHP device analysis and accelerating detailed understanding of the relationships between spatial defects and impacts on performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A correction procedure for self-induced velocity of a finite-sized particle in two-way coupled Euler–Lagrange simulations

The importance of incorporating a correction to undo the self-induced perturbation velocity of a particle, when its size becomes comparable to the Eulerian grid, in a two-way coupled Euler–Lagrange (EL) simulation is now well appreciated. The present work improves upon the prior correction procedures in a few important ways. First, the past correction procedures have been scalar-based with the assumption that the quasi-steady force is the source of self-induced velocity perturbation. Here we generalize to a vector correction procedure and thereby the directions of feedback force and relative velocity can be different. This allows the correction procedure to be used even in the presence of added-mass, history, and lift forces. Second, the effect of a nearby wall has been systematically included in the correction procedure. The correction procedure depends on fundamental Oseen solutions of streamwise and transverse regularized feedback forces. We present a Fourier transform-based analytical approach to obtaining these regularized Oseen solutions. We also present a step-by-step numerical procedure for obtaining the Oseen solutions in any EL code. With the analytical or numerical Oseen functions, the correction procedure can be easily implemented in any EL code. Iterations are required in solving the implicit correction equations and it is demonstrated that the correction procedure converges rapidly within three or four iterations. In conclusion, a simple empirical approach is also presented to account for unsteady effects in the correction procedure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Heat capacity, entropy, formation energy and spin-fluctuation behavior of U 3 Si 5 from 2.4 to 397.4 K

U-Si intermetallic compounds are of considerable interest for their applications as accident-tolerant nuclear fuels. Here we present low-temperature heat capacity (LTHC) measurements of one of the U-Si phases, U 3 Si 5 , using a Quantum Design Physical Properties Measurement System (PPMS) from 2.4 to 397.4 K. We observed an upturn in C p /T (T) below 10 K and have attributed this behavior to potential spin-fluctuations (SF) with an SF temperature (T sf ) of 27 K. An enhancement of LTHC was also observed, as manifested by a large electronic heat capacity coefficient (γ el ) of 342.9 mJ/mol•K 2 . From the heat capacity data, the following thermodynamic parameters were determined: the characteristic Debye temperature (θ D ) over the temperature range 30 – 397 K is 177 ± 2 K, and the standard entropy ($Δ^{298.15}_0$$S^o$) is 283.3 ± 5.7 J•mol -1 •K -1 (equivalent to 35.4 ± 0.7 J•mol -1 •atom -1 •K -1 ). Combined with our previously measured formation enthalpy ($Δ_fH^°_{el}$) of U 3 Si 5 , the Gibbs free energy of formation of U 3 Si 5 from the elements ($Δ_fG^°_{el}$) was determined to be –45.2 ± 9.0 kJ•mol -1 •atom -1 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cell dark current–voltage from non-calibrated module electroluminescence image analysis

Here, we present a fast, accurate, and reliable method of obtaining cell dark current–voltage (I–V) curves from module electroluminescence (EL) images without requiring calibration or correction. For a pristine module, EL-derived dark I–V are compared to directly probed data for a variety of changing imaging parameters: camera sensor, lens, filter, aperture width, exposure time (level of sensor saturation), number of images used, and various combinations of these. Pristine modules and those experiencing different modes and degrees of degradation are examined. A recent study of modules using five different cell technologies demonstrates the practicality of our “EL sweep” technique for performance and degradation studies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ligand Noninnocence in β-Diketiminate and β-Diketimine Copper Complexes

Metal–ligand cooperative systems have a long precedent in catalysis, with the classification depending on the site of substrate bond cleavage and formation and on redox state changes. Recently, our group reported the participation of a β-diketiminate ligand in chemical bonding to heterocumulenes such as CO 2 and CS 2 by tricopper complexes, leading to cooperative catalysis. Herein, we report the reactivity of these copper clusters, [Cu 3 EL] – (E = S, Se; L = tris(β-diketiminate) cyclophane ligand), toward other electrophiles, viz. alkyl halides and Brønsted acids. We identified a family of ligand-functionalized complexes, Cu 3 EL (R) (R = primary alkyls), and a series of disubstituted products, Cu 3 EL (R) 2 , through single-crystal X-ray diffraction, mass spectrometry, and infrared and UV–visible spectroscopy. Furthermore, as part of mechanistic studies on these alkylation reactions, we evaluated the acid–base reactivity of these complexes and the influence of the backbone substitution on the reduction potential. Implications of these findings for ligand noninnocence and the relevance of the metal core as a cofactor for the ligand’s reactivity are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sources of Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode-AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO-related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin-wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO-AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large-ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO-AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Changes in Active and Inactive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) have considerable interannual variability, with La Niña and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) tending to drive active hurricane seasons, and El Niño and the negative AMM often driving inactive seasons. Here, we analyze how active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons may change in the future using the high resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We performed atmosphere‐only simulations forced by sea‐surface temperature patterns characteristic of La Niña and the positive AMM jointly, and El Niño and the negative AMM jointly, in historical and future climates. Projected Atlantic TCs become more frequent in the future by approximately 34% during El Niño and negative AMM and by 66% during La Niña and positive AMM, with a significant increase in the portion of intense TCs. Warmer SSTs increase TC potential intensity, with reduced wind shear and increased mid‐tropospheric humidity further supporting TC activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chapter 6: Luminescence and Thermal Imaging of Thin-Film Photovoltaic Materials, Devices, and Modules

In this chapter, we describe luminescence and thermal imaging in the context of thin-film PV devices. First, we discuss both traditional and developing experimental designs, including dark LIT (DLIT), illuminated LIT, PL using different illumination configurations, traditional EL performed under forward -bias current injection, and contactless EL induced with sub -cell illumination patterns. Next, we provide some brief theoretical background to highlight relationships between fundamental materials properties and the resulting luminescence and thermal images. Finally, we give examples of thin-film PV PL, EL, and LIT images to demonstrate the utility of these imaging methods ranging from understanding the microstructure of active layers to managing the quality and reliability of full PV modules.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Investigating the mechanism of chloroplast singlet oxygen signaling in the Arabidopsis thaliana accelerated cell death 2 mutant

As sessile organisms, plants have evolved complex signaling mechanisms to sense stress and acclimate. This includes the use of reactive oxygen species (ROS) generated during dysfunctional photosynthesis to initiate signaling. One such ROS, singlet oxygen ( 1 O 2 ), can trigger retrograde signaling, chloroplast degradation, and programmed cell death. However, the signaling mechanisms are largely unknown. Several proteins (e.g. PUB4, OXI1, EX1) are proposed to play signaling roles across three Arabidopsis thaliana mutants that conditionally accumulate chloroplast 1 O 2 (fluorescent in blue light (flu), chlorina 1 (ch1), and plastid ferrochelatase 2 (fc2)). We previously demonstrated that these mutants reveal at least two chloroplast 1 O 2 signaling pathways (represented by flu and fc2/ch1). Here, we test if the 1 O 2 -accumulating lesion mimic mutant, accelerated cell death 2 (acd2), also utilizes these pathways. The pub4–6 allele delayed lesion formation in acd2 and restored photosynthetic efficiency and biomass. Conversely, an oxi1 mutation had no measurable effect on these phenotypes. acd2 mutants were not sensitive to excess light (EL) stress, yet pub4–6 and oxi1 both conferred EL tolerance within the acd2 background, suggesting that EL-induced 1 O 2 signaling pathways are independent from spontaneous lesion formation. Thus, 1 O 2 signaling in acd2 may represent a third (partially overlapping) pathway to control cellular degradation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ENSO modulation of summertime tropospheric ozone over China

Ozone (O 3 ) is one of the most critical pollutants affecting air quality in China in recent years. In this study, different impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases on summertime tropospheric O 3 over China are examined based on model simulations, ground measurements, and reanalysis data. Summertime surface O 3 concentrations in China show a positive correlation with ENSO index during years 1990–2019, with the largest increases by 20% over southern China in El Niño (warm phase) relative to La Niña (cold phase) years. The ENSO modulation extends to the middle and even upper troposphere. Our analysis indicates that O 3 flux convergence associated with weakened southerlies is the primary reason for the increase in tropospheric O 3 over southern China. In addition, the O 3 increase during El Niño years is mainly from domestic emissions in China. This study highlights the potential significance of ENSO in modulating tropospheric O 3 concentrations in China, with great implications for O 3 pollution mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Disorder and State Filling on Charge-Transfer-State Absorption and Emission Spectra

We conduct comprehensive temperature-dependent measurements of the charge-transfer-(CT) state photocurrent and emission spectra for two organic small molecule donor:fullerene (C 60 ) acceptor bulk heterojunction solar cells. We reveal that the CT spectral width and position are affected by static energetic disorder in the blend, especially evident at low temperatures. The relative contributions of the static and dynamic disorder broadening in the CT spectra are effectively extracted through consideration of a Gaussian CT energetic distribution. However, electroluminescence (EL) spectra can only be interpreted when injected carriers reach thermal equilibrium sites within the disordered density of states and emission occurs from the lowest possible CT energy. For the blend with the smaller energetic disorder, this is the case near room temperature; for the other blend with larger static disorder, carriers fail to reach thermal equilibrium sites even at room temperature and EL spectra need to be interpreted with care. For example, in the latter case, the effect of energetic disorder might not be apparent from EL spectra because the lowest energy sites are not participating. Nonetheless, these states contribute to the photocurrent generation-recombination and energy-loss processes and thus demand accurate characterization, which we show is feasible through temperature-dependent external quantum-efficiency measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Collective modes in excitonic insulators: Effects of electron-phonon coupling and signatures in the optical response

Here, we consider a two-band spinless model describing an excitonic insulator (EI) on the two-dimensional square lattice with anisotropic hopping parameters and electron-phonon (el-ph) coupling, inspired by the EI candidate Ta 2 NiSe 5 . We systematically study the nature of the collective excitations in the ordered phase which originates from the interband Coulomb interaction and the el-ph coupling. When the ordered phase is stabilized only by the Coulomb interaction (pure EI phase), its collective response exhibits a massless phase mode in addition to the amplitude mode. We show that in the BEC regime, the signal of the amplitude mode becomes less prominent and that the anisotropy in the phase-mode velocities is reduced. Through coupling to the lattice, the phase mode acquires a mass and the signal of the amplitude mode becomes less prominent. Importantly, the character of the softening mode at the boundary between the normal semiconductor phase and the ordered phase depends on the parameters. In particular, we point out that even for el-ph coupling smaller than the Coulomb interaction, the mode that softens to zero at the boundary can have a phonon character. We also discuss how the collective modes can be observed in the optical conductivity. Furthermore, we study the effects of nonlocal interactions on the collective modes and show the possibility of realizing a coexistence of an in-gap mode and an above-gap mode split off from the single-amplitude mode in the system with local interactions only.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗