Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “EXTRAPOLATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Spectrophotometric determination of the stability of La hydroxyl complexes at near neutral to alkaline pH from 25 to 75 °C

The hydrolysis of rare earth elements (REE) potentially controls their mobility during fluid-rock interaction in a broad range of pH and temperature conditions. However, there is still a lack of thermodynamic data for modeling accurately the stability of REE hydroxyl complexes in hydrothermal aqueous fluids. Here, in this study, UV–Vis spectrophotometric experiments were conducted from 25 to 75 °C in near-neutral to alkaline NaOH-bearing aqueous solutions with varying lanthanum (La) concentrations (0 to ∼0.23 mmol/kg). The color indicator m-cresol purple was used to determine in situ pH and derive the average OH− ligand number ($\overrightarrow{n}$) and formation constants for the La hydroxyl complexes (LaOH 2+ , La(OH) 2 + , and La(OH) 3 0 ). From 25 to 50 °C, $\overrightarrow{n}$ ranges between ∼1 and 2 at pH from 7.0 to 9.3. At 75 °C, $\overrightarrow{n}$ ranges between ∼1.5 and 3 at pH from 6.3 to 8.8. These results suggest the predominance of LaOH 2+ and La(OH) 2 + complexes from 25 to 50 °C, and an increased predominance of La(OH) 3 0 at 75 °C. The cumulative formation constants (β n °, n = 1 to 3) are derived for the reaction La 3+ + nOH − = La(OH) n 3-n , and fitted between 25 and 250 °C by combining the UV–Vis and literature solubility data. The resulting logβ n ° are expressed as function of temperature (T in Kelvin): logβ 1 ° = −1.786 + 0.0133 T + 1.049·10 3 /T; logβ 2 ° = −5.797 + 0.0267 T + 2.713·10 3 /T; logβ 3 ° = 6.435 + 0.0223 T + 512.7/T. A comparison between these new fits and existing extrapolations using the Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers equation of state indicates significant differences in the predicted hydrolysis of La. The latter extrapolations should therefore be updated for the hydrolysis of REE.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modular machine learning-based elastoplasticity: Generalization in the context of limited data

The development of highly accurate constitutive models for materials that undergo path-dependent processes continues to be a complex challenge in computational solid mechanics. Challenges arise both in considering the appropriate model assumptions and from the viewpoint of data availability, verification, and validation. Recently, data-driven modeling approaches have been proposed that aim to establish stress-evolution laws that avoid user-chosen functional forms by relying on machine learning representations and algorithms. However, these approaches not only require a significant amount of data but also need data that probes the full stress space with a variety of complex loading paths. Furthermore, they rarely enforce all necessary thermodynamic principles as hard constraints. Hence, they are in particular not suitable for low-data or limited-data regimes, where the first arises from the cost of obtaining the data and the latter from the experimental limitations of obtaining labeled data, which is commonly the case in engineering applications. In this work, we discuss a hybrid framework that can work on a variable amount of data by relying on the modularity of the elastoplasticity formulation where each component of the model can be chosen to be either a classical phenomenological or a data-driven model depending on the amount of available information and the complexity of the response. The method is tested on synthetic uniaxial data coming from simulations as well as cyclic experimental data for structural materials. The discovered material models are found to not only interpolate well but also allow for accurate extrapolation in a thermodynamically consistent manner far outside the domain of the training data. This ability to extrapolate from limited data was the main reason for the early and continued success of phenomenological models and the main shortcoming in machine learning-enabled constitutive modeling approaches. Training aspects and details of the implementation of these models into Finite Element simulations are discussed and analyzed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-based surrogate models and transfer learning for derivative free optimization of HT-PEM fuel cells

Widespread adoption of high-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane electrochemical systems, such as fuel cells (HT-PEMFCs), requires models and computational tools for accurate optimization and guiding new materials for enhancing performance and durability. In this contribution, knowledge-based modelling and data-driven modelling are combined using Few-Shot Learning and implementing an Automated Machine Learning framework for the generation of Machine Learning-based surrogate models. Applicability of the resulting model for derivative-free optimization is demonstrated. Additionally, a way of considering extrapolation in the optimization task is presented. Results show that although extrapolation is needed to achieve better solutions during optimization, it can be monitored and managed. As a result, tuning the electrode ionomer binder's properties, such as ionic conductivity, in the fuel cell represents a promising pathway for improving HT-PEMFC performance.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oxidation and Associated Pore Structure Modification During Experimental Alteration of Granite

Weathering plays a crucial role in a number of environmental processes, and the microstructure and evolution of multi-scale pore space is a critically important factor in the weathering of geological formations. In igneous rocks the infiltration of meteoric water into initially relatively dry material can cause the rock to begin to disaggregate, increasing porosity and surface area, and allowing further disaggregation and weathering to occur. These processes, in turn, allow biota to colonize the rock, further enhancing the weathering rate. In some igneous rocks this may be driven by oxidation of primary minerals. One such mineral, biotite, has been repeatedly mentioned as a cause of cracking during oxidation. However, the scale-dependence of the processes by which this occurs are poorly understood. We cannot, therefore, accurately extrapolate laboratory reaction rates to the field in predictive numerical models. In order to better understand the effects of oxidation and test the hypothesis that fracture and disaggregation are initiated by swelling of oxidizing biotites, we reacted granite cores in a selenic acid-rich aqueous solution at 200°C for up to 438 days. Elevated temperatures and selenic acid were used to provide relatively fast reaction rates and highly oxidizing conditions in sealed reaction vessels. These experiments were analyzed using a combination of imaging, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and small- and ultra-small angle neutron scattering to interrogate porosity and microfracture formation. The experimental results show little observable biotite swelling, but significant transport and growth of iron oxides and/or clays along grain boundaries throughout the sample. Significant increases in porosity were also observed at the sample rim, likely associated with feldspar alteration. Fractures and transport were observed throughout the core, suggesting that stresses due to crystallization pressures caused by the growing iron phases may be the initiating factors in granite weathering, possibly followed by biotite swelling after sufficient permeability is achieved.

Anovitz, Lawrence M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental and theoretical determinations of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium in the system CH 4 —H 2 —H 2 O from 3 to 200°C

The stable isotopic composition of methane (CH 4 ) is commonly used to fingerprint natural gas origins. Over the past 50 years, there have been numerous proposals that both microbial and thermogenic CH 4 can form in or later attain hydrogen isotopic equilibrium with water (H 2 O) and carbon isotopic equilibrium with carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Evaluation of such proposals requires knowledge of the equilibrium fractionation factors between CH 4 and H 2 O or CO 2 at the temperatures where microbial and thermogenic CH 4 form in or are found in the environment, which is generally less than 200°C. Experimental determinations of these fractionation factors are only available above 200°C, requiring extrapolation of these results beyond the calibrated range or the use of theoretical calculations at lower temperatures. Here, we provide a calibration of the equilibrium hydrogen isotopic fractionation factor for CH 4 and hydrogen gas (H 2 ) ( D α CH4(g)–H2(g) ) based on experiments using γ-Al 2 O 3 and Ni catalysts from 3 to 200°C. Results were regressed as a 2 nd order polynomial of 1000 × ln D α CH4(g)–H2(g) vs. 1/T (K -1 ) yielding: 1000 × l n D α C H 4 ( g ) - H 2 ( g ) = 3.5317 × 10 7 T 2 + 2.7749 × 10 5 T - 179.48 We combine this calibration with previous experimental determinations of hydrogen isotope equilibrium between H 2 , H 2 O(g), and H 2 O(l) and we provide an interpolatable experimental calibration of 1000 × ln D α CH4(g)–H2O(l) from 3 to 200°C. Our resulting 4th order polynomial is the following equation: 1000 × l n D α C H 4 ( g ) - H 2 O l = - 7.9443 × 10 12 T 4 + 8.7772 × 10 10 T 3 - 3.4973 × 10 8 T 2 + 5.4398 × 10 5 T - 382.05 At 3°C, the value from our calibration differs by 93‰ relative to what would be calculated based on the extrapolation of the only experimental calibration currently available to temperatures below its calibrated range (lowest temperature of 200°C; Horibe and Craig, 1995). We additionally provide new theoretical estimates of hydrogen isotopic equilibrium between CH 4 (g), H 2 (g), and H 2 O(g) and carbon isotopic equilibrium between CH 4 (g) and CO 2 (g) using Path Integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) calculations. Our PIMC calculations for hydrogen isotopic equilibrium between CH 4 and H 2 agree 1:1 with our experiments. Finally, we compile carbon and hydrogen isotopic measurements of CH 4 , CO 2 , and H 2 O from various environmental systems and compare observed differences between carbon and hydrogen isotopes to those expected based on isotopic equilibrium. We find that isotopic compositions of some microbial gases from marine sedimentary, coalbed, and shale environments are consistent with those expected for CH 4 H 2 O(l) hydrogen and CH 4 CO 2 carbon isotopic equilibrium. In contrast, microbial terrestrial and pure culture gases are not consistent with both CH 4 H 2 O(l) hydrogen and CH 4 CO 2 carbon isotopic equilibrium. Overall, these results are explained qualitatively using previously developed conceptual models that link free energy gradients available to microorganisms to the degree that their enzymes can promote isotope-exchange reactions between CH 4 , CO 2 , and H 2 O.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multiscale recurrent neural network model for predicting energy production from geothermal reservoirs

Optimization of energy production from geothermal reservoirs requires reliable prediction of energy production performance under alternative operation and development scenarios. Traditionally, reservoir simulation models are used for the evaluation and screening of alternative production and development plans. However, simulation models require extensive data collection and modeling efforts and are time-consuming to build, run, and update. Data-driven predictive models, on the other hand, can serve as efficient prediction tools that can be used for decision support and management of daily operations and surveillance activities. Data-driven models become particularly attractive when a reservoir simulation model for a field does not exist and/or is difficult to build. Machine learning (ML)-based data-driven models that have recently become popular in several fields exploit statistical patterns and relations in training data to generate predictions. As such, they tend to perform better in interpolation problems (that is, prediction within the training data range) than when they are used to extrapolate beyond the training data. Production data from geothermal reservoirs tend to exhibit short-term variabilities as well as long-term trends, such as monotonically declining production temperatures. Capturing both short-term features and long-term trends with ML-based models is not trivial. We evaluate the use of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. RNN is a class of ML architectures that are used to represent and predict sequential/dynamic data. Thus, it can be challenging to apply RNN to problems where long-term trends must be captured and extrapolation beyond the training data range is needed. We introduce the multiscale RNN architecture to extend the application of RNN to detect and predict both short-term variabilities and long-term trends in geothermal data. The developed architecture consists of a long-term component to only capture low-frequency data patterns, and a short-term component to detect features with higher frequency and more nonlinearity. The final prediction is obtained by combining the long-term and short-term predictions. Both synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the presented multiscale RNN model. The prediction performance of the multiscale RNN is compared against those obtained from the regular RNN and the autoregressive (AR) model. The results suggest that the multiscale architecture improves the long-term prediction performance of the regular RNN and enhances its robustness against noise.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid assessment of the creep rupture life of metals: A model enabling experimental design

Prediction of the creep rupture life of engineering metals is critical for qualification and design of new materials. The use of long-term creep tests and the need to quantify the performance variability in a priori similar systems hinder the rapid creep assessment of a given material. Therefore, it is essential to develop methods that can extrapolate the long-term performance of alloys and the associated variability from short-term experiments. To this end, this study introduces a new model which enables the estimation of the rupture life of a material for a given stress and temperature. This model relies on two components. First, a new relation for the minimum creep rate (MCR) of materials is introduced. It includes a stress dependent stress exponent allowing the model to capture the variation of MCR across a wide range of temperatures and stresses. Second, employing the Monkman-Grant (MG) law, we establish a relation between stress, temperature and creep rupture life. Together, these two elements yield a new closed-form mathematical expression for the Larson Miller parameter as a function of stress and temperature. This expression captures the creep rupture time for many metals (Gr91, Copper, Gr122 and 347H) and compares favorably with alternate empirical approaches. The model is then used to assess the minimum duration of creep rates necessary to qualify the material up to 100000h. Furthermore, it is found that depending on the material system, creep tests as few as five limited to 5000 h for steels (Gr91, Gr122, 347H) and 100 h for copper are sufficient to model creep lifetimes. Finally, using a Bayesian inference-based approach to calibrate the model, we demonstrate that variability in rupture life can be captured via the quantification of the uncertainty in the model parameters and extrapolated from a limited number of short to moderately short creep tests; thereby paving the way for accelerated creep testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental workflow to estimate model parameters for evaluating long term viscoelastic response of CO2 storage caprocks

Understanding the time-dependent behavior of reservoir and sealing formations is critical to assessing risks associated with geological carbon storage since time-dependent deformation strongly influences mechanical responses of some rock types. Many studies have evaluated the risk of CO2 leakage and induced seismicity by assuming poroelastic rheology in sealing formations. Few have considered viscoelastic or other time-dependent responses, where the existing literature adopts 1D models to represent long-term time-dependent responses. This is primarily because to date, the general form of a reasonable 3D time-dependent model for rocks remains unclear. In this paper, we address this unclear issue by proposing a new workflow to select constitutive modeling parameters to evaluate if a 3D viscoelastic model is reasonable using several-hour-long experimental data and a power-law response to extrapolate to the decades-long time frames of interest in geologic carbon storage. To provide experimental data, we conducted multi-level loading/unloading triaxial relaxation tests with four rock types. The experimental results showed that the maximum load relaxation observed is approximately 49%, with some rock types showing as little as 1.4%. Using a simple linear viscoelastic model, parameters were chosen such that a maximum deviation of 1.5 MPa in axial stress and 7 MPa in radial stress was attained with the extrapolated 30-year data. We found that a reasonable parameter range for the normalized elastic modulus is 0.1~2 for rocks with significant time-dependent responses and 0.01~0.06 for those with small time-dependent responses. No matter how significant time-dependent responses are for rocks considered, our results showed that the relaxation time has a general range of 1~10^10 s, whose time scale can be one or two orders higher than a time frame typically envisioned for CO2 injection projects.

Stress relaxation, 3D time-dependent model, viscoe↗
DOE OSTI2018

Liquidus temperature in the spinel primary phase field: A comparison between optical and crystal fraction methods

Liquidus temperature (TL) was measured for simulated high-level waste borosilicate glasses covering a Hanford composition region, using an optical method and a crystal-fraction extrapolation method with X-ray diffraction data from isothermal heat treatments. The 38 glasses encompassed a one-component-at-a-time variation of a 16-component matrix. The TL values ranged from 1006°C to 1603°C. First-order polynomial models were fitted to data to obtain coefficients in terms of the effect of 1 mass% component addition on the TL: TL-increasing oxides Cr2O3 (264°C), “Others” (minor components, 163°C), oxides of noble metals (137°C), NiO (91°C), Al2O3 and Fe2O3 (~19–21°C); TL-decreasing oxides K2O (-26°C), Na2O (-41°C), and Li2O (-68°C); oxides of little effect MnO, P2O5, ZrO2, F, Bi2O3, SiO2, B2O3, and CaO (9 to -12°C). Also presented are temperatures (T1%) at which glasses contain 1 vol% of spinel as these values are considered relevant to the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. The measured and estimated values are compared and contrasted and the effect of TL and T1% on glass formulation is discussed.

crystal fraction↗
DOE OSTI2016

Direct optical band gap measurement in polycrystalline semiconductors: A critical look at the Tauc method

The direct optical band gap of semiconductors is traditionally measured by extrapolating the linear region of the square of the absorption curve to the x-axis, and a variation of this method, developed by Tauc, has also been widely used. The application of the Tauc method to crystalline materials is rooted in misconception–and traditional linear extrapolation methods are inappropriate for use on degenerate semiconductors, where the occupation of conduction band energy states cannot be ignored. A new method is proposed for extracting a direct optical band gap from absorption spectra of degenerately-doped bulk semiconductors. This method was applied to pseudo-absorption spectra of Sn-doped In{sub 2}O{sub 3} (ITO)—converted from diffuse-reflectance measurements on bulk specimens. The results of this analysis were corroborated by room-temperature photoluminescence excitation measurements, which yielded values of optical band gap and Burstein–Moss shift that are consistent with previous studies on In{sub 2}O{sub 3} single crystals and thin films. - Highlights: • The Tauc method of band gap measurement is re-evaluated for crystalline materials. • Graphical method proposed for extracting optical band gaps from absorption spectra. • The proposed method incorporates an energy broadening term for energy transitions. • Values for ITO were self-consistent between two different measurement methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep glassy state dynamic data challenge glass models: Elastic models

The idea of an “ideal” glass transition temperature has persisted at least since the work from Kauzmann when it was observed that the entropy of glass-forming liquids extrapolated to below that of the crystal, thus suggesting the need for a phase transition at a finite or non-zero absolute temperature. This thermodynamic paradox was also found to be related to the observations of a diverging of the extrapolated viscosity or relaxation times at a temperature near to this ideal glass transition. Recently, however, we have carried out experiments using both an ancient amber material and an ultra-stable amorphous fluoropolymer that challenge the ideas of the divergence of the viscosity or relaxation times at this ideal glass transition. In the present manuscript we have evaluated two theories of the glass transition that are based on ideas related to elasticity of the amorphous glass-forming material. We find that the models from both J. Dyre and his group and of K.S. Schweizer and his group not only show non-diverging behavior but are also in some agreement with the new data, though still showing somewhat slower dynamics than those observed in the experiments. The work shows that the data are good enough to distinguish between theories and it is suggested that other mechanisms may be needed to fully describe the non-diverging responses of the ultra-stable glasses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative study with two reduced test facilities for air-cooled RCCS scaling law

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted steady-state tests at constant heat flux conditions to investigate the scale effect on heat removal behavior of the air-cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). Two differently scaled-down test facilities were used in this study, KAERI’s ¼ scale with 4.0-m cavity height, and ANL’s ½ scale with 6.8-m cavity height. Two scaling laws were proposed to simulate the radiation across the cavity and the buoyancy-driven duct flow in the riser, respectively. The test matrix for KAERI and ANL test facilities focused on the scaling effect of the heated riser length with constant heat flux at the PMR200 RCCS design. The test results showed that mixed convection in the riser duct is an important factor for accurately extrapolating the thermo-fluid behavior in the prototype from the test results in the scale-down facilities. The system analysis code, GAMMA+, with improved heat transfer models predicted fairly well the air-cooled RCCS test data from two facilities. GAMMA+ analysis results showed that the predicted radiation fractions on the heated plate in the scale-down test conditions were larger than those on the reactor vessel in the prototype. The scaling law for air-cooled RCCS was improved by considering the mixed convection in the riser duct and the same radiation fraction on the heated plate. The mixed convection effect was calculated by the height ratio. The same radiation fraction provided a conservative extrapolation from the scale-down test results.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Measurement of the total cross section from elastic scattering in pp collisions at s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the total ppcross section at the LHC at √s=8TeV is presented. An integrated luminosity of 500 μb-1 was accumulated in a special run with high-β beam optics to measure the differential elastic cross section as a function of the Mandelstam momentum transfer variable t. The measurement is performed with the ALFA sub-detector of ATLAS. Using a fit to the differential elastic cross section in the -t range from 0.014GeV2 to 0.1GeV2 to extrapolate t→0, the total cross section, σtot(pp →X), is measured via the optical theorem to be σtot(pp→ X) = 96.07±0.18 (stat.)±0.85 (exp.)± 0.31 (extr.) mb, where the first error is statistical, the second accounts for all experimental systematic uncertainties and the last is related to uncertainties in the extrapolation t→0. In addition, the slope of the exponential function describing the elastic cross section at small t is determined to be B =19.74 ±0.05 (stat.) ±0.23 (syst.) GeV-2.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Application of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling to explore the role of kidney transporters in renal reabsorption of perfluorooctanoic acid in the rat

ABSTRACT: Renal elimination and the resulting clearance of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) from the serum exhibit pronounced sex differences in the adult rat. The literature suggests that this is largely due to hormonally regulated expression of organic anion transporters (OATs) on the apical and basolateral membranes of the proximal tubule cells that facilitate excretion and reabsorption of PFOA from the filtrate into the blood. Previously developed PBPK models of PFOA exposure in the rat have not been parameterized to specifically account for transporter-mediated renal elimination. We developed a PBPK model for PFOA in male and female rats to explore the role of Oat1, Oat3, and Oatp1a1 in sex-specific renal reabsorption and excretion of PFOA. Descriptions of the kinetic behavior of these transporters were extrapolated from in vitro studies and the model was used to simulate time-course serum, liver, and urine data for intravenous (IV) and oral exposures in both sexes. Model predicted concentrations of PFOA in the liver, serum, and urine showed good agreement with experimental data for both male and female rats indicating that in vitro derived physiological descriptions of transporter-mediated renal reabsorption can successfully predict sex-dependent excretion of PFOA in the rat. This study supports the hypothesis that sex-specific serum half-lives for PFOA are largely driven by expression of transporters in the kidney and contribute to the development of PBPK modeling as a tool for evaluating the role of transporters in renal clearance. - Highlights: • The PBPK model for PFOA in the rat explores the role of OATs in sex-specific clearance. • Descriptions of OAT kinetics were extrapolated from in vitro studies. • Model predictions showed good fit with experimental data for male and female rats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

PBPK modeling of the cis- and trans-permethrin isomers and their major urinary metabolites in rats

Permethrin, a pyrethroid insecticide, is suspected to induce neuronal and hormonal disturbances in humans. The widespread exposure of the populations has been confirmed by the detection of the urinary metabolites of permethrin in biomonitoring studies. Permethrin is a chiral molecule presenting two forms, the cis and the trans isomers. Because in vitro studies indicated a metabolic interaction between the trans and cis isomers of permethrin, we adapted and calibrated a PBPK model for trans- and cis-permethrin separately in rats. The model also describes the toxicokinetics of three urinary metabolites, cis- and trans-3-(2,2 dichlorovinyl)-2,2-dimethyl-(1-cyclopropane) carboxylic acid (cis- and trans-DCCA), 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3-PBA) and 4′OH-phenoxybenzoic acid (4′-OH-PBA). In vivo experiments performed in Sprague–Dawley rats were used to calibrate the PBPK model in a Bayesian framework. The model captured well the toxicokinetics of permethrin isomers and their metabolites including the rapid absorption, the accumulation in fat, the extensive metabolism of the parent compounds, and the rapid elimination of metabolites in urine. Average hepatic clearances in rats were estimated to be 2.4 and 5.7 L/h/kg for cis- and trans-permethrin, respectively. High concentrations of the metabolite 4′-OH-PBA were measured in urine compared to cis- and trans-DCCA and 3-PBA. The confidence in the extended PBPK model was then confirmed by good predictions of published experimental data obtained using the isomers mixture. The extended PBPK model could be extrapolated to humans to predict the internal dose of exposure to permethrin from biomonitoring data in urine. - Highlights: • A PBPK model of isomers of permethrin and its urinary metabolites was developed. • A quantitative link was established for permethrin and its biomarkers of exposure. • The bayesian framework allows getting confidence interval on the estimated parameters. • The PBPK model can be extrapolated to human and used in a reverse dosimetry context.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of human exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid suggests historical non drinking-water exposures are important for predicting current serum concentrations

Manufacturing of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), a synthetic chemical with a long half-life in humans, peaked between 1970 and 2002, and has since diminished. In the United States, PFOA is detected in the blood of > 99% of people tested, but serum concentrations have decreased since 1999. Much is known about exposure to PFOA in drinking water; however, the impact of non-drinking water PFOA exposure on serum PFOA concentrations is not well characterized. The objective of this research is to apply physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and Monte Carlo analysis to evaluate the impact of historic non-drinking water PFOA exposure on serum PFOA concentrations. In vitro to in vivo extrapolation was utilized to inform descriptions of PFOA transport in the kidney. Monte Carlo simulations were incorporated to evaluate factors that account for the large inter-individual variability of serum PFOA concentrations measured in individuals from North Alabama in 2010 and 2016, and the Mid-Ohio River Valley between 2005 and 2008. Predicted serum PFOA concentrations were within two-fold of experimental data. With incorporation of Monte Carlo simulations, the model successfully tracked the large variability of serum PFOA concentrations measured in populations from the Mid-Ohio River Valley. Simulation of exposure in a population of 45 adults from North Alabama successfully predicted 98% of individual serum PFOA concentrations measured in 2010 and 2016, respectively, when non-drinking water ingestion of PFOA exposure was included. Variation in serum PFOA concentrations may be due to inter-individual variability in the disposition of PFOA and potentially elevated historical non-drinking water exposures. - Highlights: • PBPK modeling and Monte Carlo analysis applied to evaluate historic PFOA exposure. • In vitro to in vivo extrapolation informed description of PFOA transport in kidney. • Model predicted large range of serum PFOA concentrations in two communities. • Variation in serum concentrations may be due to historic non-drinking water exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building a predictive model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dosimetry in organotypically cultured human bronchial epithelial cells using benzo[ a ]pyrene

The airway epithelium is a primary route of exposure for inhaled toxicants, and organotypic culture models represent an important advancement for toxicity testing compared to simple in vitro models that may lack metabolic capability and multicellular structure/communication associated with the bronchial epithelium in vivo. A quantitative understanding of chemical dosimetry is key for interpreting and extrapolating study results; however, dosimetry is understudied in organotypic models limiting ability to predict toxicity. We developed a dosimetry model for primary human bronchial epithelial cells (HBECs) cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI) using benzo[a]pyrene (BAP), a representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Dose and time course evaluation of metabolite formation and enzyme activity and expression were utilized to parameterize a cellular dosimetry model to improve the utility of ALI-HBECs for assessing chemical risk. Dosimetry analysis demonstrated absorption of BAP into cells and an increase in Phase 1 and 2 metabolites over time that correlated with regulation of metabolizing enzymes. BAP was cleared from cells by 48 h after exposure, and the primary metabolites generated in ALI-HBECs were BAP-3-phenol, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8-dihydrodiol, BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8,9,10-tetrol, BAP-3-phenol-glucuronide, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol-glucuronide, and BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol-glucuronide. The resulting dosimetry model described BAP and 7,8-dihydrodiol toxicokinetics in ALI-HBECs and suggested active excretion of 7,8-dihydrodiol. Overall, this study demonstrates metabolic competency of ALI-HBECs for BAP metabolism, demonstrates the usefulness of complex in vitro systems for human-relevant toxicity data, and exhibits how in silico models can be utilized for understanding the dosimetry of test compounds to aid in in vitro to human extrapolation of toxicity data for risk assessments.

Benzo[a]pyrene↗