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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Organosulfates and Organonitrates in Vertically Resolved Aerosols over the Southern Great Plains Field Campaign Report

Aerosol is the largest individual source of uncertainty in assessing the Earth’s radiative balance due to poorly understood aerosol processes and aerosol-cloud interactions. Thus, to constrain aerosol’s climate impacts, it is critical to understand aerosol compositions at high elevations. Organic material accounts for about 20-80% of total aerosol mass in the atmosphere and is known to play a key role in aerosol processes and cloud formation. In prior research, characterization of aerosol molecular composition has been mostly carried out at ground level. In these ground-level measurements, total speciated organosulfates and organonitrates may contribute significantly to organic aerosol mass on the order of 10-40%, most of which are from abundant biogenic volatile organic compounds such as isoprene and monoterpenes. Organosulfates and organonitrates have also been shown to be present in substantial amounts in cloud water, suggesting that they can be transported and/or directly formed at high elevations. On the other hand, the less common and more expensive aircraft studies have performed high-altitude measurements, but were often limited in the number of different altitudes sampled and in sample collection under consistent conditions. Therefore, the vertical distributions of key aerosol components such as organosulfates and organonitrates are not well understood and have not been extensively studied. Nevertheless, it is important to understand how organosulfates and organonitrates in aerosols are distributed, transformed, participate in aqueous-phase processes, and interact with high-altitude clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating coastal backwater effects and flooding in the coastal zone using a global river transport model on an unstructured mesh

Abstract. Coastal backwater effects are caused by the downstream water level increase as a result of elevated sea level, high river discharge and their compounding influence. Such effects have crucial impacts on floods in densely populated regions but have not been well represented in large-scale river models used in Earth system models (ESMs), partly due to model mesh deficiency and oversimplifications of river hydrodynamics. Using two mid-Atlantic river basins as a testbed, we perform the first attempt to simulate the backwater effects comprehensively over a coastal region using the MOSART river transport model under an ESM framework, i.e., Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) configured on a regionally refined unstructured mesh, with a focus on understanding the backwater drivers and their long-term variations. By including sea level variations at the river downstream boundary, the model performance in capturing backwaters is greatly improved. We also propose a new flood event selection scheme to facilitate the decomposition of backwater drivers into different components. Our results show that while storm surge is a key driver, the influence of extreme discharge cannot be neglected, particularly when the river drains to a narrow river-like estuary. Compound flooding, while not necessarily increasing the flood peaks, exacerbates the flood risk by extending the duration of multiple coastal and fluvial processes. Furthermore, our simulations and analysis highlight the increasing strength of backwater effects due to sea level rise and more frequent storm surge during 1990–2019. Thus, backwaters need to be properly represented in ESMs to improve the predictive understanding of coastal flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of E3SM land model snow simulations over the western United States

Abstract. Seasonal snow has crucial impacts on climate, ecosystems, and humans, but it is vulnerable to global warming. The land component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) mechanistically simulates snow processes from accumulation, canopy interception, compaction, and snow aging to melt. Although high-quality field measurements, remote sensing snow products, and data assimilation products with high spatio-temporal resolution are available, there has been no systematic evaluation of the snow properties and phenology in ELM. This study comprehensively evaluates ELM snow simulations over the western United States at 0.125∘ resolution during 2001–2019 using the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) in situ networks, MODIS remote sensing products (i.e., MCD43 surface albedo product), the spatially and temporally complete (STC) snow-covered area and grain size (MODSCAG) and MODIS dust and radiative forcing in snow (MODDRFS) products (STC-MODSCAG/STC-MODDRFS), and the snow property inversion from remote sensing (SPIReS) product and two data assimilation products of snow water equivalent and snow depth – i.e., University of Arizona (UA) and SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Overall the ELM simulations are consistent with the benchmarking datasets and reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns, interannual variability, and elevation gradients for different snow properties including snow cover fraction (fsno), surface albedo (αsur) over snow cover regions, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow depth (Dsno). However, there are large biases of fsno with dense forest cover and αsur in the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada in winter, compared to the MODIS products. There are large discrepancies of snow albedo, snow grain size, and light-absorbing particle-induced snow albedo reduction between ELM and the MODIS products, attributed to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing data, snow aging processes in ELM, and remote sensing retrievals. Against UA and SNODAS, ELM has a mean bias of −20.7 mm (−35.9 %) and −20.4 mm (−35.5 %), respectively, for spring, and −13.8 mm (−27.8 %) and −10.2 mm (−22.2 %), respectively, for winter. ELM shows a relatively high correlation with SNOTEL SWE, with mean correlation coefficients of 0.69 but negative mean biases of −122.7 mm. Compared to the snow phenology of STC-MODSCAG and SPIReS, ELM shows delayed snow accumulation onset dates by 17.3 and 12.4 d, earlier snow end dates by 35.5 and 26.8 d, and shorter snow durations by 52.9 and 39.5 d, respectively. This study underscores the need for diagnosing model biases and improving ELM representations of snow properties and snow phenology in mountainous areas for more credible simulation and future projection of mountain snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Science Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but rather modeling complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple sources of data and domains. For instance, Evapotranspiration (ET) and Leaf Area Indexes (LAI) are two critical components in DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, current ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFT), which fail to capture the fine-scale variations due to change in vegetation type across the globe. Within this context and in light of the data-model integration challenges highlighted in the EESSD Strategic Plan, the new era of AI model development for geosciences calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with estimations of parameters such as PFT and LAI in an efficient, interpretable, and easy-to-operate manner.

Ambrozio Dias, Philipe↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fracture Mechanics—Theory, Modeling and Applications

The field of fracture mechanics was developed during the throes of World War II, and since then, it has been a very active area of research. This is a very energetic and vibrant field because fracture processes are relevant for a vast range of engineering applications spanning different temporal and length scales. Depending on the application, material fracture and fragmentation may be either a desirable feature (for example, for the purpose of hydraulic fracturing operations), or something that is to be avoided at all costs (for example, in key components of mechanical systems). In some other instances, fractures are already present and must be accommodated through novel design (for example, in the case of earthquake ruptures occurring in the Earth’s crust). Because of this wide spectra of motivation, there is a continuous need for the fracture mechanics research community to gain more insight on how fractures are created, evolve, and interact with themselves and with material microstructures. In addition, there are still many remaining questions about how fracture propagation, growth, and interaction impact overall material behavior, and how to develop accurate models to predict this behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A dry ancient plume mantle from noble gas isotopes

Primordial volatiles were delivered to terrestrial reservoirs during Earth’s accretion, and the mantle plume source is thought to have retained a greater proportion of primordial volatiles compared with the upper mantle. This study shows that mantle He, Ne, and Xe isotopes require that the plume mantle had low concentrations of volatiles like Xe and H 2 O at the end of accretion compared with the upper mantle. A lower extent of mantle processing alone is not sufficient to explain plume noble gas signatures. Ratios of primordial isotopes are used to determine proportions of solar, chondritic, and regassed atmospheric volatiles in the plume mantle and upper mantle. The regassed Ne flux exceeds the regassed Xe flux but has a small impact on the mantle Ne budget. Pairing primordial isotopes with radiogenic systems gives an absolute concentration of 130 Xe in the plume source of ∼1.5 × 10 7 atoms 130 Xe/g at the end of accretion, ∼4 times less than that determined for the ancient upper mantle. A record of limited accretion of volatile-rich solids thus survives in the He-Ne-Xe signatures of mantle rocks today. A primordial viscosity contrast originating from a factor of ∼4 to ∼250 times lower H 2 O concentration in the plume mantle compared with the upper mantle may explain (a) why giant impacts that triggered whole mantle magma oceans did not homogenize the growing planet, (b) why the plume mantle has experienced less processing by partial melting over Earth’s history, and (c) how early-formed isotopic heterogeneities may have survived ∼4.5 Gy of solid-state mantle convection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) V2 – a case study in the Pantanal region

Abstract. Streamflow variability plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics and sustainability of Earth's ecosystems, which can be simulated and projected by a river routing model coupled with a land surface model. However, the simulation of streamflow at large scales is subject to considerable uncertainties, primarily arising from two related processes: runoff generation (hydrological process) and river routing (hydraulic process). While both processes have impacts on streamflow variability, previous studies only calibrated one of the two processes to reduce biases in the simulated streamflow. Calibration focusing only on one process can result in unrealistic parameter values to compensate for the bias resulting from the other process; thus other water-related variables remain poorly simulated. In this study, we performed several experiments with the land and river components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) over the Pantanal region to disentangle the hydrological and hydraulic controls on streamflow variability in coupled land–river simulations. Our results show that the generation of subsurface runoff is the most important factor for streamflow variability contributed by the runoff generation process, while floodplain storage effect and main-channel roughness have significant impacts on streamflow variability through the river routing process. We further propose a two-step procedure to robustly calibrate the two processes together. The impacts of runoff generation and river routing on streamflow are appropriately addressed with the two-step calibration, which may be adopted by developers of land surface and earth system models to improve the modeling of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tailoring Hierarchical Structure and Rare Earth Affinity of Compositionally Identical Polymers via Sequence Control

Macromolecule sequence, structure, and function are inherently intertwined. While well-established relationships exist in proteins, they are more challenging to define for synthetic polymer nanoparticles due to their molecular weight, sequence, and conformational dispersities. Furthermore, to explore the impact of sequence on nanoparticle structure, we synthesized a set of 16 compositionally identical, sequence-controlled polymers with distinct monomer patterning of dimethyl acrylamide and a bioinspired, structure-driving di(phenylalanine) acrylamide (FF). Sequence control was achieved through multiblock polymerizations, yielding unique ensembles of polymer sequences which were simulated by kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. Systematic analysis of the global (tertiary- and quaternary-like) structure in this amphiphilic copolymer series revealed the effect of multiple sequence descriptors: the number of domains, the hydropathy of terminal domains, and the patchiness (density) of FF within a domain, each of which impacted both chain collapse and the distribution of single- and multichain assemblies. Furthermore, both the conformational freedom of chain segments and local-scale, β-sheet-like interactions were sensitive to the patchiness of FF. To connect sequence, structure, and target function, we evaluated an additional series of nine sequence-controlled copolymers as sequestrants for rare earth elements (REEs) by incorporating a functional acrylic acid monomer into select polymer scaffolds. We identified key sequence variables that influence the binding affinity, capacity, and selectivity of the polymers for REEs. Collectively, these results highlight the potential of and boundaries of sequence control via multiblock polymerizations to drive primary sequence ensembles hierarchical structures, and ultimately the functionality of compositionally identical polymeric materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ice‐Nucleating Particles That Impact Clouds and Climate: Observational and Modeling Research Needs

Abstract Atmospheric ice‐nucleating particles (INPs) play a critical role in cloud freezing processes, with important implications for precipitation formation and cloud radiative properties, and thus for weather and climate. Additionally, INP emissions respond to changes in the Earth System and climate, for example, desertification, agricultural practices, and fires, and therefore may introduce climate feedbacks that are still poorly understood. As knowledge of the nature and origins of INPs has advanced, regional and global weather, climate, and Earth system models have increasingly begun to link cloud ice processes to model‐simulated aerosol abundance and types. While these recent advances are exciting, coupling cloud processes to simulated aerosol also makes cloud physics simulations increasingly susceptible to uncertainties in simulation of INPs, which are still poorly constrained by observations. Advancing the predictability of INP abundance with reasonable spatiotemporal resolution will require an increased focus on research that bridges the measurement and modeling communities. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge and identifies critical knowledge gaps from both observational and modeling perspectives. In particular, we emphasize needs in two key areas: (a) observational closure between aerosol and INP quantities and (b) skillful simulation of INPs within existing weather and climate models. We discuss the state of knowledge on various INP particle types and briefly discuss the challenges faced in understanding the cloud impacts of INPs with present‐day models. Finally, we identify priority research directions for both observations and models to improve understanding of INPs and their interactions with the Earth System.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cryogenic electron tomography by the numbers: Charting underexplored lineages in structural cell biology

Imaging cells and their interactions across the whole biosphere with molecular-scale resolution is key for understanding structure–function relations. Cryogenic electron tomography (cryo-ET) is a powerful method for obtaining this critical information. However, cryo-ET studies are challenging and often limited to a small number of cell types per study. Here, we collate cryo-ET data from hundreds of cells and tissues across the biosphere to i) identify emerging methodological trends, ii) pinpoint strategies to reduce imaging time and costs, iii) quantitatively compare methods for cell freezing and sectioning, and iv) census cryo-ET species coverage across all domains of life. Comparing the fraction of cellular material within a single lamella across all domains of life reveals an order of magnitude difference between eukaryotes (1%) compared to bacteria (9%) and archaea (14%). We calculate the fraction of cellular material which can be imaged using distinct sectioning methods on multicellular communities and tissues—identifying serial lift-out as a powerful approach for obtaining more complete cellular depictions. Finally, we show that the biodiversity of current cryo-ET studies is 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than in sequence libraries and 4 to 5 lower than the total predicted on Earth. Our analyses reveal major evolutionary lineages which remain critically understudied and highlight where future cryo-ET research would be most impactful.

HPF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Warming decreases desert ecosystem functioning by altering biocrusts in drylands

Warming and precipitation fluctuations are changing desert ecosystems in global drylands. However, the effects of climate change on keystone species such as cryptogamic biocrust in drylands remain relatively under-investigated, even though biocrusts play a vital role in desert ecosystems. Here we conducted a long-term experiment (14 years) to simulate the responses of two main types of biocrusts to warming coupled with reduction in precipitation that was achieved by open-top chambers (OTCs) to simulate the predicted warming and precipitation decreasing under climate change scenario. We also conduct a structural analysis to evaluate the resulting changes in desert ecosystem functioning (carbon and nitrogen cycling). Neither warming and corresponding rainfall reduction treatments had a negative effect on lichen species richness, but both treatments reduced lichen cover and biomass. The negative effects of warming on moss-dominated crusts were much greater than those on lichen-dominated crusts. Although mosses and lichens had varying degree responses to warming, the loss of mosses and decreased lichen cover and biomass, as well as the shortening of the wet time, resulted in a reduction in carbon and nitrogen fixation, soil enzyme activity and water-holding capacity of biocrusts and topsoil. These impacts collectively change the water balance of drylands and weaken the hydrological and biogeochemical function of biocrusts. Synthesis and applications: Results from this long-term experiment suggest that the ecosystem C and N cycling and water balance of global drylands may be highly impacted by climate change, in part because of the response of biocrusts, which contribute an important implication for both dryland restoration and earth system dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of marine organic aerosols as sources of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles on high-latitude mixed-phase clouds

Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in high-latitude regions and have important impacts on the surface energy budget and regional climate. Marine organic aerosol (MOA), a natural source of aerosol emitted over ~70 % of Earth's surface, may significantly modify the properties and radiative forcing of mixed-phase clouds. However, the relative importance of MOA as a source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in comparison to mineral dust, and MOA's effects as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and INPs on mixed-phase clouds are still open questions. In this study, we implement MOA as a new aerosol species into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmosphere component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), and allow the treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions of MOA via droplet activation and ice nucleation. CAM6 reproduces observed seasonal cycles of marine organic matter at Mace Head and Amsterdam Island when the MOA fraction of sea spray aerosol in the model is assumed to depend on sea spray biology but fails when this fraction is assumed to be constant. Model results indicate that marine INPs dominate primary ice nucleation below 400 hPa over the Southern Ocean and Arctic boundary layer, while dust INPs are more abundant elsewhere. By acting as CCN, MOA exerts a shortwave cloud forcing change of -2.78 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral summer. By acting as INPs, MOA enhances the longwave cloud forcing by 0.35 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral winter. The annual global mean net cloud forcing changes due to CCN and INPs of MOA are -0.35 and 0.016 W m-2, respectively. These findings highlight the vital importance for Earth system models to consider MOA as an important aerosol species for the interactions of biogeochemistry, hydrological cycle, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global rules for translating land-use change (LUH2) to land-cover change for CMIP6 using GLM2

Anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change activities play a critical role in Earth system dynamics through significant alterations to biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties at local to global scales. To quantify the magnitude of these impacts, climate models need consistent land-cover change time series at a global scale, based on land-use information from observations or dedicated land-use change models. However, a specific land-use change cannot be unambiguously mapped to a specific land-cover change. Here, nine translation rules are evaluated based on assumptions about the way land-use change could potentially impact land cover. Utilizing the Global Land-use Model 2 (GLM2), the model underlying the latest Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), the land-cover dynamics resulting from land-use change were simulated based on multiple alternative translation rules from 850 to 2015 globally. For each rule, the resulting forest cover, carbon density and carbon emissions were compared with independent estimates from remote sensing observations, U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization reports, and other studies. The translation rule previously suggested by the authors of the HYDE 3.2 dataset, that underlies LUH2, is consistent with the results of our examinations at global, country and grid scales. This rule recommends that for CMIP6 simulations, models should (1) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary and secondary land (including both forested and non-forested) to cropland, urban land and managed pasture; (2) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary forest and/or secondary forest to rangeland; (3) keep vegetation inland-use changes from primary non-forest and/or secondary non-forest to rangeland. Our analysis shows that this rule is one of three (out of nine)rules that produce comparable estimates of forest cover, vegetation carbon and emissions to independent estimates and also mitigate the anomalously high carbon emissions from land-use change observed in previous studies in the 1950s. According to the three translation rules, contemporary global forest area is estimated to be 37.42×106 km2, within the range derived from remote sensing products. Likewise, the estimated carbon stock is in close agreement with reference biomass datasets, particularly over regions with more than 50 % forest cover

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global patterns of radiocarbon depletion in subsoil linked to rock-derived organic carbon

Organic matter stored in sedimentary rocks is one of the largest stocks of carbon at Earth’s surface. The fate of this rock organic carbon (OC petro ) during weathering in soils influences the geological carbon cycle, and impacts soil radiocarbon content that is used to quantify soil carbon turnover. Here, we assess the potential contribution of OC petro to soils, using a mixing model generated by a global dataset of soil radiocarbon measurements ( 14 C). Soils developed on sedimentary rocks (rather than on igneous substrate) have a paired OC content and 14 C values consistent with OC petro input, giving rise to apparent increase in soil residence time. We call for renewed assessment of OC petro input to soils, in terms of its impact on soil radiocarbon inventories, and its potential to release carbon dioxide.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Topography-Based Subgrid Scheme and Downscaling of Atmospheric Forcing on Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Conterminous US

The effects of small-scale topography-induced land surface heterogeneity are not well represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). In this study, a new topography-based subgrid structure referred to as topographic units (TGU) designed to better capture subgrid topographic effects, and methods to downscale atmospheric forcing to the land TGUs have been implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Effects of the subgrid scheme and downscaling methods on ELM simulated land surface processes are evaluated over the conterminous United States (CONUS). For this purpose, ELM simulations are performed using two configurations without (NoD ELM) and with (D ELM) downscaling, both using TGUs derived for the 0.5-degree grids and the same land surface parameters. Simulations using the two ELM configurations are compared over the CONUS domain, regional levels, and at observational sites (e.g., SNOTEL). The CONUS-level results suggest that D ELM simulates more snowfall and snow water equivalent (SWE), higher runoff, and less ET during spring and summer. Regional-level results suggest more pronounced impacts of downscaling over regions dominated by higher elevation TGUs and regions with maximum precipitation occurring during cool seasons. Results at the SNOTEL sites suggest that D ELM has superior capability of reproducing the observed SWE at 83% of the sites, with more pronounced performance over topographically heterogeneous TGUs with their maximum precipitation occurring during cool seasons. The results highlight the importance of improving representation of small-scale surface heterogeneity in ESMs and motivate future research to understand their effects on land-atmosphere interactions, streamflow, and water resources management over mountainous regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the topographic influence on aboveground biomass using a coupled model of hillslope hydrology and ecosystem dynamics

Abstract. Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The agglomeration and dispersion dichotomy of human settlements on Earth

Human settlements on Earth are scattered in a multitude of shapes, sizes and spatial arrangements. These patterns are often not random but a result of complex geographical, cultural, economic and historical processes that have profound human and ecological impacts. However, little is known about the global distribution of these patterns and the spatial forces that creates them. This study analyses human settlements from high-resolution satellite imagery and provides a global classification of spatial patterns. We find two emerging classes, namely agglomeration and dispersion. In the former, settlements are fewer than expected based on the predictions of scaling theory, while an unexpectedly high number of settlements characterizes the latter. To explain the observed spatial patterns, we propose a model that combines two agglomeration forces and simulates human settlements’ historical growth. Our results show that our model accurately matches the observed global classification (F1: 0.73), helps to understand and estimate the growth of human settlements and, in turn, the distribution and physical dynamics of all human settlements on Earth, from small villages to cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗