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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

Practical and thermodynamic constraints on electromicrobially accelerated CO 2 mineralization

By the end of the century, tens of gigatonnes of CO 2 will need to be removed from the atmosphere every year to maintain global temperatures. Natural weathering of ultramafic rocks and subsequent mineralization reactions can convert CO 2 into ultra-stable carbonates. Although this will draw down all excess CO 2 , it will take thousands of years. CO 2 mineralization could be accelerated by weathering ultramafic rocks with biodegradable lixiviants. We show that if these lixiviants come from cellulosic biomass, this demand could monopolize the world’s biomass supply. We demonstrate that electromicrobial production technologies (EMP) that combine renewable electricity and microbial metabolism could produce lixiviants for as little as $\$200$ to $\$400$ per tonne at solar electricity prices achievable within the decade. We demonstrate that EMP could make enough lixiviants to sequester a tonne of CO 2 for less than $\$100$. This work highlights the potential of this approach and the need for extensive R&D.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

5G Enabled Energy Innovation: Advanced Wireless Networks for Science (Workshop Report)

Rapidly expanding, new telecommunications infrastructure based on 5G technologies will disrupt and transform how we design, build, operate, and optimize scientific infrastructure and the experiments and services enabled by that infrastructure, from continental-scale sensor networks to centralized scientific user facilities, from intelligent Internet of Things devices to supercomputers. Concurrently, 5G will introduce, or exacerbate, challenges related to protecting infrastructure and associated scientific data as well as to fully leveraging opportunities related to expanded infrastructure scale and complexity. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science operates scientific infrastructure, supporting some of the nation’s most advanced intellectual discoveries, spanning the country and including 30 world-class user facilities from supercomputers to accelerators. Along with field experiments and remote observatories, every aspect of DOE’s scientific enterprise will be affected by 5G, which amounts to a complete renovation of the underpinnings of the nation’s information infrastructure. In this report we explore the scientific opportunities and new research challenges associated with 5G, ranging from scalability to heterogeneity to cybersecurity. The rapid commercial deployment of 5G opens the opportunity to rethink and reinvent DOE’s scientific infrastructure and experimentation, from intelligent sensor networks at unprecedented scales to a digital continuum of cyberinfrastructure spanning low-power sensors, high-performance computing embedded within and at the edge of the network, and DOE’s large-scale user instrument and computing facilities. New programming paradigms, workflow and data frameworks, and AI-based system design, operation, and autonomous adaptation and optimization will be necessary in order to exploit these new opportunities. Field deployments and centralized scientific instruments can also be revolutionized, moving (without traditional performance penalties) from wired to wireless connectivity for data and control systems, improving flexibility, and opening new sensing modalities, including the use of the 5G electromagnetic spectrum itself as an environmental probe. For DOE science, in contrast to commercial 5G applications and settings, devices will be deployed in extreme environments such as cryogenically cooled instrument control systems and in remote settings with harsh conditions, requiring the design of new materials for RF communication and edge processing to operate in these regimes. Concurrently, 5G infrastructure comprises both hardware and sophisticated software systems - currently closed and proprietary. The cybersecurity challenges to 5G-empowered reinvention mirror the complexity and variety of new 5G features, from virtualization to private network slices to ubiquitous access. Research is also needed in order to accelerate the development of secure and open 5G software infrastructure, reducing reliance on hardware and software produced outside the United States and providing the transparency and rigorous evaluation and testing afforded through open software. Twelve broad research thrusts are laid out in four chapters, with a companion fifth chapter (and three additional research thrusts) underscoring the needs and opportunities for an aggressive testbed program co-designed by networking experts and scientists involved in the 15 research thrusts. The urgency of undertaking this research is fueled by a global, accelerating deployment of new telecommunications infrastructure that is designed for entertainment and commercial applications - barely scratching the surface of what 5G can do to extend U.S. leadership in scientific discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain technology for the energy sector using fuzzy Einstein decision-making

The global energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by decarbonization and digitalization, leading to the emergence of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) — particularly blockchain — as a promising tool for enhancing transparency, security, and efficiency in modern power systems. This study aims to provide a comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain applications in the energy sector and develop a robust decision-making framework to identify and prioritize the most promising real-world use cases based on multidisciplinary criteria. A three-stage methodology was adopted: (i) a literature and market review encompassing over 300 academic publications and commercial blockchain initiatives in energy, (ii) an in-depth evaluation of the evolution and viability of blockchain initiatives in energy with the help of expert surveys, and (iii) a novel decision-making model using a q-rung orthopair fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation (q-ROF-MABAC) method under the Einstein operator. The results were compared with existing decision models to validate consistency and robustness. Nine key blockchain use case categories were identified and ranked based on technical, economic, and governance dimensions. The results demonstrated that integrating expert insights into a fuzzy logic framework helps filter out overhyped claims in the literature and prioritize realistic and high-impact applications such as green certificates, grid services, and peer-to-peer energy trading. The model’s rankings remained stable across varying weight configurations, confirming the robustness of the methodology. This study provides an evidence-based decision-support tool for researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers to better understand, evaluate, and adopt blockchain technologies in the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Resilience of Nuclear-Renewable Integrated-Energy Microgrids

The increasing prevalence and severity of wildfires, severe storms, and cyberattacks is driving the introduction of numerous microgrids to improve resilience locally. While distributed energy resources (DERs), such as small-scale wind and solar photovoltaics with storage, will be major components in future microgrids, today, the majority of microgrids are backed up with fossil-fuel-based generators. Small modular reactors (SMRs) can form synergistic mix with DERs due to their ability to provide baseload and flexible power. The heat produced by SMRs can also fulfill the heating needs of microgrid consumers. This paper discusses an operational scheme based on distributed control of flexible power assets to strengthen the operational resilience of SMR-DER integrated-energy microgrids. A framework is developed to assess the operational resilience of SMR-DER microgrids in terms of system adaptive real-power capacity quantified as a response area metric (RAM). Month-long simulation results are shown with a microgrid developed in a modified Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)-30 bus system. The RAM values calculated along the operational simulation reflect the system resilience in real time and can be used to supervise the microgrid operation and reactor’s autonomous control.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Main bearing response in a waked 15-MW floating wind turbine in below-rated conditions

Increased wind turbine size raises unknowns related to structural flexibility. Moreover, moving to deeper waters, component reliability becomes more critical. This work investigates main bearing response dependence on drivetrain flexibility and wake impingement in a two-turbine wind farm. A 15-MW floating direct-drive turbine is considered. Large eddy simulations (LES) are employed to model neutral, stable and unstable atmospheric conditions at below-rated mean wind speed, while the engineering codes OpenFAST and FAST.Farm simulate turbine and wake behavior. Results indicate significant sensitivities in fatigue estimates to lateral distance between the upstream and downstream turbine. The trends are most substantial in stable conditions, where the waked downwind main bearing sees twice the fatigue damage estimates of the upstream turbine for one position and 50% for another. Main bearing fatigue sensitivity to drivetrain flexibility is minor, while properly including generator rotor inertia loads is important for the axial forces of the locating (axially fixed) bearing, especially in stable conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of High-efficiency and Cost-effective Forged Ingot Niobium Technology for Science Frontiers and Accelerator Applications

Development of Forged Ingot Niobium Technology: Worlds science frontier programs and SRF accelerator applications demand high performance and cost-effective SRF accelerator technology [1-8]. Fine-grain (FG) and Large-grain (LG) ingot niobium technologies have been very well developed and implemented in all the present-day accelerator projects. However, forged ingot niobium technology which is the focus of this development proposal will be much more cost-effective and expected to have several technical advantages. FG niobium sheet production is very complex involving more than ten processing steps making them prone to contamination. As a result, they are very expensive to produce and require stringent QA procedure to be ready for SRF cavity production. The accelerating cavity process steps are also numerous and require strict procedures in order to achieve high accelerating gradients and quality factors needed for science frontier programs. LG niobium disc production, directly sliced from the ingot, is relatively simple and straight forward to keep surface cleanness. The disc production cost is significantly low compared to FG niobium sheet production. However, there are (some) draw backs due to non-homogeneity of the grain boundary distribution, resulting in non-uniform mechanical properties and complex cavity fabrication, although the LG cavities achieve the expected high-gradient performance goals with lower cost. Medium-grain (MG) niobium disk production may be realized with a new approach/process, the disc directly sliced from the forged ingot, involves a simpler process steps contributing major production cost reduction [9]. These discs are expected to be superior as they tend to be homogenous with uniform sub millimeter grains and mechanical properties. We are eagerly looking forward to developing the forged ingot niobium SRF accelerator technology for the benefit of the world-wide science frontier programs, green energy subcritical nuclear energy systems and a wide variety of industrial applications including the production of radio isotopes and nuclear transmutation applications. Measurement of thermal characteristics of the forged ingot niobium: Measurement of the thermal diffusivity, D, of superconducting MG niobium is important to be understood in comparison with FG sheet and LG disc, as well as that of advanced composite material of Nb3Sn film sputtered on forged ingot Nb, which will be determined using transient pump-probe thermo-modulation [10,11]. Transient thermo-modulation is based on using an ultrafast laser pulse to heat the superconducting materials by a few K, then a synchronized laser pulse probes the reflectance of the heated material. For thin films on a substrate (e.g, 100-nm Nb3Sn on Nb), it takes <100 ps for the heat to reach the substrate by diffusion. Therefore, an ultrafast method is needed to probe D of the studied material. D will be measured from room temperature to liquid helium temperatures. Fundamental Research: The increase of rf loss in SRF cavities is related to trapping of residual magnetic field during the cavity cool-down. The study suggested that the micro structure plays the role in flux trapping sensitivity. The research includes the flux trapping and expulsion study as forged ingot niobium goes through several mechanical deformations, crystallization leading to the optimal SRF cavity performance. Furthermore, the cavity made from FG, MG, and LG sheet/disc will be compared to understand the optimal re-crystallization temperature that cavity needed to be heat treated which minimize the flux trapping and increase SRF cavity performance. References: 1. S. Belomestnykh, Overview of recent SRF developments for ERLs, presented at the SRF 2015, Whistler, BC, Canada (2015). 2. A. Yamamoto, M. Yamanaka and G. Myneni, Ingot Nb based SRF Technology for the International Linear Collider, in Science and Technology of Ingot Niobium for Superconducting Radio Frequency Applications, AIP Conf. Proc. 1687, 030005-1 ? 03005-6, 2015 3. Report of the Workshop on Energy and Environmental Applications of Accelerators, DOE Workshop Report. https://science.osti.gov/-/media/hep/pdf/Reports/2020/CASM_WorkshopReport.pdf? la=en&hash=AEB0B318ED0436B1C5FF4EE0FDD6DEB84C2F15B2 4. G. Ciovati, et al., Design of a cw, low-energy, high-power superconducting linac for environmental applications, Phys. Rev. Accel. Beams 21, 091601 (2018). 5. P. Dhakal, et al., Effect of high temperature heat treatments on the quality factor of a large-grain superconducting radio-frequency niobium cavity, Phys. Rev. ST Accel. Beams 16, 042001 (2013). 6. P. Kneisel et al., Review of ingot niobium as a material for superconducting radio frequency accelerating cavities, Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research A 774, 133 (2015). 7. G. Ciovati, P. Dhakal, and G. R, Myneni, Superconducting radio-frequency cavities made from medium and low-purity niobium ingots, Supercond. Sci. Technol. 29, 064002 (2016). 8. M. Drury et al., commissioning of the prototype C75 cavities in a CEBAF cryomodule, in Proc. of IPAC 2018, Vancouver, BC, Canada (2018) 9. Feasibility of forged-ingot niobium disc and SRF cavity fabrication technology recently demonstrated in cooperation of ATI, BSCE, and KEK (2020). 10. Hani E. Elsayed-Ali, ?Measurements of heat transport in thin films by ultrafast laser-based techniques,? 3rd International Conference on Thermal Issues in Emerging Technologies Theory and Applications, Cairo, Egypt, pp. 347 ? 350 (2010). DOI: 10.1109/ThETA17616.2010 11. W. M. G. Ibrahim, H. E. Elsayed-Ali, M. Schinn, and C. A. Bonner, Jr., ?Ultrafast investigation of electron dynamics in multilayer metals,? Int. J. Heat and Mass Transfer, 47(10?11), 2261?2268 (2004).

Myneni, G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photosynthesis tunes quantum-mechanical mixing of electronic and vibrational states to steer exciton energy transfer

Significance Photosynthetic light-harvesting antennae transfer energy toward reaction centers with high efficiency, but in high light or oxidative environments, the antennae divert energy to protect the photosynthetic apparatus. For a decade, quantum effects driven by vibronic coupling, where electronic and vibrational states couple, have been suggested to explain the energy transfer efficiency, but questions remain whether quantum effects are merely consequences of molecular systems. Here, we show evidence that biology tunes interpigment vibronic coupling, indicating that the quantum mechanism is operative in the efficient transfer regime and exploited by evolution for photoprotection. Specifically, the Fenna–Matthews–Olson complex uses redox-active cysteine residues to tune the resonance between its excitons and a pigment vibration to steer excess excitation toward a quenching site.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

2024 Site Environmental Report

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is managed on behalf of the Department of Energy (DOE) by Brookhaven Science Associates (BSA), a partnership between Stony Brook University and Battelle, and six core universities: Columbia, Cornell, Harvard, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton, and Yale. For over 75 years, the Laboratory has played a lead role in the DOE Science and Technology mission and continues to contribute to the DOE’s missions in energy resources, environmental quality, and national security. BNL manages its world-class scientific research operations with sensitivity to environmental issues and community concerns. The Laboratory’s Environmental, Safety, Security, and Health (ESSH) Policy reflects the commitment of BNL’s management to fully integrate environmental stewardship into all facets of its mission and operations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characteristics and radiolysis behavior of polyvinylchloride under accelerated proton and γ-irradiation

Here the effect of high energy protons and γ-irradiation on the structural properties, surface-energies, and toxicological properties of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) were studied due to the role PVC products play in many technologies including the nuclear industry. Accelerated 1–4 MeV protons impacting on PVC in vacuum lead to the formation of polyenyl radicals as shown by EPR and to an increase in free surface energy due to functionalization of the surface of the irradiated polymer. γ-irradiation leads to the formation of unsaturated bonds, carbonyl and hydroxyl groups as shown by IR and to the release of HCl. Correlated molecular orbital theory calculations of reaction thermodynamics were used to aid in the development of a mechanism in the absence of oxygen. The formation and accumulation of chromophores and auxochromic groups during γ-radiolysis of PVC leads to a gradual change of the initial white color of the polymer to yellow and then to brown and black with high sensitivity. A mixture of powdered PVC and silicate glue was used to determine the profile of a 60 Co γ-radiation beam on targets with a complex relief. γ-irradiated polymer does not have a local irritating effect due to a single application to the skin of mice in an adhesive mixture at a concentration of up to 5000 mg/kg. γ-radiolysis of PVC powder in air with a dose of up to 1400 kGy does not affect its acute toxicity when administered intragastrically to BDF1 mice. PVC and its γ-irradiated analogs are non-toxic at doses ≤5000 mg/kg.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fully depleted charge‐coupled device design and technology development

Abstract We describe the advancement of fully depleted charge‐coupled device (CCD) technology for scientific applications. Recent efforts on 650–725 m‐thick CCDs for direct dark‐matter and radiation detection with single‐electron sensitivity are described, as well as the technology transfer of the fully depleted CCD technology to 200 mm‐wafer fabrication facilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Importance of Nonequilibrium to Equilibrium Transition Pathways for the Efficiency and Stability of Organic Solar Cells

Controlled morphology of solution-processed thin films have realized impressive achievements for non-fullerene acceptor (NFA)–based organic solar cells (OSCs). Given the large set of donor–acceptor pairs, employing various processing conditions to realize optimal morphology for high efficiency and stable OSCs is a strenuous task. Therefore, comprehensive correlations between processing conditions and morphology evolution pathways have to be developed for efficient performance and stability of devices. Within the framework of the blend system, crystallization transitions of NFA molecules are tracked utilizing the first heating scan of differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) measurement correlating with respective morphology evolution of blend films. Real-time dynamics measurements and morphology characterizations are combined to provide optimal morphology transition pathways as NFA molecules are shown to be released from the mixed phase to form balanced ordered packing with variant processing conditions. Polymer:NFA films are fabricated using blade coating incorporating solvent additive or thermal annealing as processing conditions as a correlation is formulated between performance and stability of solar cells with morphology transition pathways. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the significance of processing condition-controlled transition pathways for the realization of optimal morphology leading to superior OSC devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating the Fields of Catalysis: Active Site Engineering in Metal Cluster, Metal Organic Framework and Metal Single Site

Research evolved using nanoparticles synthesized and characterized under reaction conditions opened the door to study all three fields of catalysis: heterogeneous, homogenous, and enzyme. Fundamental studies of catalytic reactions ranging from hydrogenation to understand Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and isomerization ultimately led to the integration of three fields of catalysis. Our recent work on bridging heterogeneous, homogenous, and enzymatic catalysis was present including functionalization of dendrimer encapsulated metal clusters surface for lactonization, active site engineering in metal organic framework catalysts for methanol production and oligomerization, and single site catalyst for hydrogen production. We envision that the combination of active site engineering and unifying fields of catalysis could be applied to solve practical issues of science-based technology and develop new fields useful in energy research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tuning the Electronic Properties of Graphane via Hydroxylation: An Ab Initio Study

The thermodynamic stability of hydroxylated graphane, that is, fully sp 3 graphene derivatives coordinated with -H and -OH groups, has been recently demonstrated by ab initio calculations. Within the density functional theory approach, we investigate the electronic property modifications of graphane by progressive hydroxylation, that is, by progressively substituting -H with -OH groups. When 50% of graphane is hydroxylated, the energy bandgap reaches its largest value of 6.68 eV. The electronic affinity of 0.8 eV for graphane can widely change in the 0.28–1.60 eV range depending on the geometric configuration. Hydroxylated graphane has two interfaces with vacuum, hence its electron affinity can be different on each interface with the formation of an intrinsic dipole perpendicular to the monolayer. We envisage the possibility of using hydroxylated graphane allotropes with tunable electronic affinity to serve as interfacial layers in 2D material-based heterojunctions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Oxynitrides enabled photoelectrochemical water splitting with over 3,000 hrs stable operation in practical two-electrode configuration

Solar photoelectrochemical reactions have been considered one of the most promising paths for sustainable energy production. To date, however, there has been no demonstration of semiconductor photoelectrodes with long-term stable operation in a two-electrode configuration, which is required for any practical application. Herein, we demonstrate the stable operation of a photocathode comprising Si and GaN, the two most produced semiconductors in the world, for 3,000 hrs without any performance degradation in two-electrode configurations. Measurements in both three- and two-electrode configurations suggest that surfaces of the GaN nanowires on Si photocathode transform in situ into Ga-O-N that drastically enhances hydrogen evolution and remains stable for 3,000 hrs. First principles calculations further revealed that the in-situ Ga-O-N species exhibit atomic-scale surface metallization. This study overcomes the conventional dilemma between efficiency and stability imposed by extrinsic cocatalysts, offering a path for practical application of photoelectrochemical devices and systems for clean energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phase engineering of layered anode materials during ion-intercalation in Van der Waal heterostructures

Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) are a class of 2D materials demonstrating promising properties, such as high capacities and cycling stabilities, making them strong candidates to replace graphitic anodes in lithium-ion batteries. However, certain TMDs, for instance, MoS 2 , undergo a phase transformation from 2H to 1T during intercalation that can affect the mobility of the intercalating ions, the anode voltage, and the reversible capacity. In contrast, select TMDs, for instance, NbS 2 and VS 2 , resist this type of phase transformation during Li-ion intercalation. This manuscript uses density functional theory simulations to investigate the phase transformation of TMD heterostructures during Li-, Na-, and K-ion intercalation. The simulations suggest that while stacking MoS 2 layers with NbS 2 layers is unable to limit this 2H → 1T transformation in MoS 2 during Li-ion intercalation, the interfaces effectively stabilize the 2H phase of MoS 2 during Na- and K-ion intercalation. However, stacking MoS 2 layers with VS 2 is able to suppress the 2H → 1T transformation of MoS 2 during the intercalation of Li, Na, and K-ions. The creation of TMD heterostructures by stacking MoS 2 with layers of non-transforming TMDs also renders theoretical capacities and electrical conductivities that are higher than that of bulk MoS 2 .

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Precision Measurement of Neutrino Oscillation Parameters with 10 Years of Data from the NOvA Experiment

This Letter reports measurements of muon-neutrino disappearance and electron-neutrino appearance and the corresponding antineutrino processes between the two NOvA detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. These measurements use a dataset with double the neutrino mode beam exposure that was previously analyzed, along with improved simulation and analysis techniques. A joint fit to these samples in the three-flavor paradigm results in the most precise single-experiment constraint on the atmospheric neutrino mass-splitting, $Δm^2_{32}= 2.431^{+0.036}_{-0.034} (-2.479^{+0.036}_{-0.036}) \times 10^{-3}$~eV$^2$ if the mass ordering is Normal (Inverted). In both orderings, a region close to maximal mixing with $\sin^2θ_{23}=0.55_{+0.06}^{-0.02}$ is preferred. The NOvA data show a mild preference for the Normal mass ordering with a Bayes factor of 2.4 (corresponding to 70% of the posterior probability), indicating that the Normal ordering is 2.4 times more probable than the Inverted ordering. When incorporating a 2D $Δm^2_{32}\textrm{--}\sin^2 2θ_{13}$ constraint based on Daya Bay data, this preference strengthens to a Bayes factor of 6.6 (87\%).

FOS: Physical sciences↗