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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin Framework for PIP-II Linac: AI-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling from Ion Source to 800 MeV

The PIP-II linac will enable >1.2 MW beam power for DUNE, requiring unprecedented operational reliability across its warm front-end (RFQ, MEBT) and five distinct SRF sections operating at 162.5/325/650 MHz. We present a comprehensive digital twin framework uniquely combining a fully differentiable fast beam transport code with neural network surrogates trained on high-fidelity PIC simulations, capturing space charge and nonlinear dynamics beyond traditional envelope codes while achieving 10⁴× speedup at <1% accuracy. End-to-end differentiability enables gradient-based optimization across 500+ parameters simultaneously—previously impossible with conventional tools—while the model incorporates static/dynamic errors and serves as a virtual commissioning platform for diverse hardware integration. The framework facilitates reinforcement learning for pulsed/CW mode transitions, predictive maintenance through anomaly detection, and autonomous tuning algorithm development with real-time execution capability. Validation against physics simulations shows excellent agreement for the front-end, with initial results demonstrating potential for 30% commissioning time reduction and proactive fault mitigation, providing a scalable blueprint for operating next-generation high-intensity accelerators.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Multiple Flow Constrained Area Capacity Setting Methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

The purpose of this study was to compare flow constrained area (FCA) capacity setting methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) as they pertain to the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept. IDM uses flow balancing to manage air traffic across multiple FCAs with a common downstream constraint, as well as constraints at the respective FCA locations. FCA capacity rates can be set manually, but generating capacities for multiple, interdependent FCAs could potentially over-burden a user. A new enhancement to CTOP called the FCA Balance Algorithm (FBA) was developed at NASA Ames Research Center to improve the process of allocating capacity across multiple flow constrained segments in the airspace. The FBA evaluates the predicted demand and capacity across multiple FCAs and dynamically generates capacity settings for the FCAs that best meet capacity limits for all identified constraints. In a human-in-the-loop simulation study, both manual and automated capacity setting methods were evaluated in terms of their overall feasibility using measures of system performance, human performance, and qualitative feedback. Subject matter experts were asked to use three different methods to allocate capacity to three FCAs, either (1) by manually setting capacity for every 60-minute time window, (2) by manually setting capacity for every 15-minute time window, or (3) by using the FBA capability to automatically generate capacity settings. Results showed no significant differences in terms of overall system performance, indicated by similar ground delay and airport throughput numbers between methods. However, differences in individual strategies afforded by the manual methods allowed some participants to achieve system-wide delay that was much lower than the average. The FBA was the fastest method of capacity setting, and it received the lowest subjective rating scores on physical task load, mental task load, task difficulty and task complexity out of the three methods. Finally, participants explained through qualitative feedback that there were many benefits to using the FBA, such as ease of use, accuracy, and low risk of human input error. Participants did not experience the same limitations with the FBA that they did with the manual methods, such as reduced accuracy in the 60-minute manual condition, or high complexity in the 15-minute/manual condition. These results suggest that the FBA automation enhancement to CTOP maintains system performance while improving human performance. Therefore, the FBA could be introduced as a way to mitigate operator workload while planning a CTOP.

NextGen↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Multiple Flow Constrained Area Capacity Setting Methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program

The purpose of this study was to compare flow constrained area (FCA) capacity setting methods for Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) as they pertain to the Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept. IDM uses flow balancing to manage air traffic across multiple FCAs with a common downstream constraint, as well as constraints at the respective FCA locations. FCA capacity rates can be set manually, but generating capacities for multiple, interdependent FCAs could potentially over-burden a user. A new enhancement to CTOP called the FCA Balance Algorithm (FBA) was developed at NASA Ames Research Center to improve the process of allocating capacity across multiple flow constrained segments in the airspace. The FBA evaluates the predicted demand and capacity across multiple FCAs and dynamically generates capacity settings for the FCAs that best meet capacity limits for all identified constraints. In a human-in-the-loop simulation study, both manual and automated capacity setting methods were evaluated in terms of their overall feasibility using measures of system performance, human performance, and qualitative feedback. Subject matter experts were asked to use three different methods to allocate capacity to three FCAs, either (1) by manually setting capacity for every 60-minute time window, (2) by manually setting capacity for every 15-minute time window, or (3) by using the FBA capability to automatically generate capacity settings. Results showed no significant differences in terms of overall system performance, indicated by similar ground delay and airport throughput numbers between methods. However, differences in individual strategies afforded by the manual methods allowed some participants to achieve system-wide delay that was much lower than the average. The FBA was the fastest method of capacity setting, and it received the lowest subjective rating scores on physical task load, mental task load, task difficulty and task complexity out of the three methods. Finally, participants explained through qualitative feedback that there were many benefits to using the FBA, such as ease of use, accuracy, and low risk of human input error. Participants did not experience the same limitations with the FBA that they did with the manual methods, such as reduced accuracy in the 60-minute manual condition, or high complexity in the 15-minute/manual condition. These results suggest that the FBA automation enhancement to CTOP maintains system performance while improving human performance. Therefore, the FBA could be introduced as a way to mitigate operator workload while planning a CTOP.

NextGen↗
NASA NTRS1959

The Effect of Leading-Edge Sweep and Surface Inclination on the Hypersonic Flow Field Over a Blunt Flat Plate

An investigation of the effects of variation of leading-edge sweep and surface inclination on the flow over blunt flat plates was conducted at Mach numbers of 4 and 5.7 at free-stream Reynolds numbers per inch of 6,600 and 20,000, respectively. Surface pressures were measured on a flat plate blunted by a semicylindrical leading edge over a range of sweep angles from 0 deg to 60 deg and a range of surface inclinations from -10 deg to +10 deg. The surface pressures were predicted within an average error of +/- 8 percent by a combination of blast-wave and boundary-layer theory extended herein to include effects of sweep and surface inclination. This combination applied equally well to similar data of other investigations. The local Reynolds number per inch was found to be lower than the free-stream Reynolds number per inch. The reduction in local Reynolds number was mitigated by increasing the sweep of the leading edge. Boundary-layer thickness and shock-wave shape were changed little by the sweep of the leading edge.

Creager, Marcus O.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar Dynamics Observatory Guidance, Navigation, and Control System Overview

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was designed and built at the Goddard Space Flight Center, launched from Cape Canaveral on February 11, 2010, and reached its final geosynchronous science orbit on March 16, 2010. The purpose of SDO is to observe the Sun and continuously relay data to a dedicated ground station. SDO remains Sun-pointing throughout most of its mission for the instruments to take measurements of the Sun. The SDO attitude control system (ACS) is a single-fault tolerant design. Its fully redundant attitude sensor complement includes sixteen coarse Sun sensors (CSSs), a digital Sun sensor (DSS), three two-axis inertial reference units (IRUs), and two star trackers (STs). The ACS also makes use of the four guide telescopes included as a part of one of the science instruments. Attitude actuation is performed using four reaction wheels assemblies (RWAs) and eight thrusters, with a single main engine used to provide velocity-change thrust for orbit raising. The attitude control software has five nominal control modes, three wheel-based modes and two thruster-based modes. A wheel-based Safehold running in the attitude control electronics box improves the robustness of the system as a whole. All six modes are designed on the same basic proportional-integral-derivative attitude error structure, with more robust modes setting their integral gains to zero. This paper details the final overall design of the SDO guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system and how it was used in practice during SDO launch, commissioning, and nominal operations. This overview will include the ACS control modes, attitude determination and sensor calibration, the high gain antenna (HGA) calibration, and jitter mitigation operation. The Solar Dynamics Observatory mission is part of the NASA Living With a Star program, which seeks to understand the changing Sun and its effects on the Solar System, life, and society. To this end, the SDO spacecraft carries three Sun-observing instruments: Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), led by Stanford University; Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), led by Lockheed Martin Space and Astrophysics Laboratory; and Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), led by the University of Colorado. The basic mission is to observe the Sun for a very high percentage of the 5-year mission (10-year goal) with long stretches of uninterrupted observations and with constant, high-data-rate transmission to a dedicated ground station to be located in White Sands, New Mexico. These goals guided the design of the spacecraft bus that will carry and service the three-instrument payload. Overarching design goals for the bus are geosynchronous orbit, near-constant Sun observations with the ability to fly through eclipses, and constant HGA contact with the dedicated ground station. A three-axis stabilized ACS is needed both to point at the Sun accurately and to keep the roll about the Sun vector correctly positioned with respect to the solar north pole. This roll control is especially important for the magnetic field imaging of HM I. The mission requirements have several general impacts on the ACS design. Both the AIA and HMI instruments are very sensitive to the blurring caused by jitter. Each has an image stabilization system (ISS) with some ability to filter out high frequency motion, but below the bandwidth of the ISS the control system must compensate for disturbances within the ACS bandwidth or avoid exciting jitter at higher frequencies. Within the ACS bandwidth, the control requirement imposed by AIA is to place the center of the solar disk no more than 2 arc sec, 3 , from a body-defined target based on one of the GTs that accompany the instrument. This body-defined target, called the science reference boresight (SRB), was determined from the postlaunch orientation of the GTs by averaging the bounding telescope boresights for pitch to get a pitch SRB coordinate, and by averaging the bounding boresights for yaw toet the yaw SRB coordinate. The location of this SRB in the 0.5-deg field-of-view for each GT then becomes the central target for each telescope; one GT is selected for use as the ACS controlling guide telescope (CGT) at any given time. Fine Sun-pointing is effected based on this SRB for all three instruments when the Sun is within the linear range of the CGT. In addition to limiting jitter, HMI science requires averaging several observations, making the instrument sensitive to low frequency motion that induces differential motion between each observation. This requires the spacecraft attitude to be stable about the roll axis to approximately 10 arcsec over a ten-minute period. Instrument calibrations require that the spacecraft point the SRB up to 2.5 degrees in pitch and yaw away from the center of the Sun, placing the Sun outside the field-of-view of the guide telescopes. In such instances, when the GTs cannot provide the definitive target for the ACS, on-board attitude determination combined with ephemeris prediction of the Sun direction must provide the definitive target. EVE is capable of observing the Sun with less dependence on attitude control. However, the ground data processing needs for calibrations result in the most strict attitude knowledge requirements for the mission: [35,70,70] arcsec, 3 , of knowledge with respect to the center of the solar disk. In addition to driving the ACS sensor selection, the knowledge requirements, which have their effect primarily during Inertial mode calibrations, drive the accuracy requirements for the solar ephemeris. The need to achieve and maintain geosynchronous orbit (GEO) drove the need for high-efficiency propulsive systems and appropriate attitude control. The main engine provided high specific impulse for the maneuvers to attain GEO, while the smaller ACS thrusters managed the disturbance torques of the larger engine and provided the capability for much smaller adjustment burns on orbit. SDO s large solar profile means that solar radiation pressure is a large torque disturbance, and the momentum buildup from this disturbance and the GEO altitude drives the ACS to use thrusters to manage vehicle momentum. The demanding data capture budget for the mission, however, requires SDO to avoid frequent thruster maneuvers, while concerns about on-orbit jitter restrict the maximum desired wheel speeds desired from the RWAs. The plan for on-orbit wheel speed and momentum management will be discussed as well as what is now being done in operation after the jitter environment was characterized. The SDO ACS hardware complement is single-fault tolerant. Two main processors carry virtually identical copies of the command and data handling and ACS software, and two identical attitude control electronics (ACE) boxes carry Coldfire processors with contingency ACS software and other hardware interface cards; the ACE structure allows reaction wheels to be commanded by the Sun-pointing Safehold independent of the Mil Std 1553 data bus. The sixteen Adcole CSSs are grouped into primary and backup sets of eight sensors, each set providing the ability to calculate a sun vector. Each set of eight eyes provides full 4 -steradian coverage. The Adcole DSS comprises an optics head and a separate electronics box providing a 1553 data interface. The electronics box is mounted inside the Faraday cage created by the spacecraft bus module. The DSS head with its 32- deg square FOV is mounted on the instrument module with its boresight along the spacecraft X axis, nearly aligned with the Sun during observations. Adcole has designed the DSS calibration parameters so that the accuracy is 0.24 arcminutes within 10 deg of the boresight, and diminishes to 3 arcminutes as the Sun moves towards the edges of its FOV . This DSS calibration scheme provides higher accuracy attitude determination over the range of the instrument calibration maneuvers.

Morgenstern, Wendy M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Hollow Retroreflectors for Lunar Laser Ranging at Goddard Space Flight Center

Laser ranging to the retroreflector arrays placed on the lunar surface by the Apollo astronauts and the Soviet Luna missions have dramatically increased our understanding of gravitational physics along with Earth and Moon geophysics, geodesy, and dynamics. Although the precision of the range measurements has historically been limited by the ground station capabilities, advances in the APOLLO instrument at the Apache Point facility in New Mexico is beginning to be limited by errors associated with the lunar arrays. At Goddard Space Flight Center, we have developed a facility where we can design, build, and test next-generation hollow retroreflectors for Lunar Laser Ranging. Here we will describe this facility as well as report on the bonding techniques used to assemble the retroreflectors. Results from investigations into different high reflectivity mirror coatings, as well as dust mitigation coatings will also be presented.

Preston, Alix M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Global Surface Water Temperature Data Sets for use in Passive Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture

Inland open water bodies often pose a systematic error source in the passive remote sensing retrievals of soil moisture. Water temperature is a necessary variable used to compute water emissions that is required to be subtracted from satellite observation to yield actual emissions from the land portion, which in turn generates accurate soil moisture retrievals. Therefore, overestimation of soil moisture can often be corrected using concurrent water temperature data in the overall mitigation procedure. In recent years, several data sets of lake water temperature have become available, but their specifications and accuracy have rarely been investigated in the context of passive soil moisture remote sensing on a global scale. For this reason, three lake temperature products were evaluated against in-situ measurements from 2007 to 2011. The data sets include the lake surface water temperature (LSWT) from Global Observatory of Lake Responses to Environmental Change (GloboLakes), the Copernicus Global Land Operations Cryosphere and Water (C-GLOPS), as well as the lake mix-layer temperature (LMLT) from the European Centers for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 Land Reanalysis. GloboLakes, C-GLOPS, and ERA5 Land have overall comparable performance with Pearson correlations (R) of 0.87, 0.92 and 0.88 in comparison with in-situ measurements. LSWT products exhibit negative median biases of −0.27 K (GloboLakes) and −0.31 K (C-GLOPS), whereas the median bias of LMLT is 1.56 K. When mapped from their respective native resolutions to a common 9 km Equal-Area Scalable Earth (EASE) Grid 2.0 projection, similar relative performance was observed. LMLT and LSWT data are closer in performance over the 9 km grid cells that exhibit a small range of lake cover fractions (0.05–0.5). Despite comparable relative performance, ERA5 Land shows great advantages in spatial coverage and temporal resolution. In summary, an integrated evaluation on data accuracy, long-term availability, global coverage, temporal resolution, and regular forward processing with modest data latency led us to conclude that LMLT from the ERA5 Land Reanalysis product represents the most optimal path for use in the development of a long-term soil moisture product.

Runze Zhang↗
DOE OSTI2026

The AWAKEN wind farm benchmark, Part 2: Modeling results

Accurately modeling wind farm performance in complex atmospheric flows remains a challenge. This paper presents the modeling results of the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) wind farm benchmark, a collaborative effort involving 16 research groups from academia and industry within the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme Task 57. The study evaluates a diverse suite of simulation tools, ranging from fast-running engineering wake models to high-fidelity large-eddy simulations, against a diurnal case study observed during the AWAKEN campaign. The benchmark utilized a three-phase structure to progressively assess model performance as observational data availability increased. Initial blind predictions showed that higher-fidelity models did not uniformly outperform simpler simulation tools. A distinct spatial bias was observed where models struggled to resolve the interplay between a low-level jet, wakes, and terrain-induced flow acceleration. In subsequent phases, leveraging additional measurements for model improvement led to a reduction in mean absolute error across the model ensemble; however, this effect was most pronounced in engineering wake models, where targeted calibration reduced error by up to 40~\%. Overall, the study demonstrates that inflow characterization remains a primary prerequisite for accuracy, particularly for models relying on coarse forcing datasets. While the limited ability to resolve local terrain-flow interactions under single-day conditions represent a recognized constraint, the overall findings on wake modeling and real-world validation still provide valuable guidance for model application and for mitigating this limitation.

Bodini, Nicola↗
NASA NTRS2016

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗
NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗
NASA NTRS2012

Large-Scale Hollow Retroreflectors for Lunar Laser Ranging at Goddard Space Flight Center

Laser ranging to the retroreflector arrays placed on the lunar surface by the Apollo astronauts and the Soviet Luna missions have dramatically increased our understanding of gravitational physics along with Earth and Moon geophysics, geodesy, and dynamics. Although the precision of the range measurements has historically been limited by the ground station capabilities, advances in the APOLLO instrument at the Apache Point facility in New Mexico is beginning to be limited by errors associated with the lunar arrays. We report here on efforts at Goddard Space Flight Center to develop the next generation of lunar retroreflectors. We will describe a new facility that is being used to design, assemble, and test large-scale hollow retroreflectors. We will also describe results from investigations into various bonding techniques used to assemble the open comer cubes and mirror coatings that have dust mitigation properties.

Preston, Alix↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗
NASA NTRS1995

Propellant injection systems and processes

The previous 'Art of Injector Design' is maturing and merging with the more systematic 'Science of Combustion Device Analysis.' This technology can be based upon observation, correlation, experimentation and ultimately analytical modeling based upon basic engineering principles. This methodology is more systematic and far superior to the historical injector design process of 'Trial and Error' or blindly 'Copying Past Successes.' The benefit of such an approach is to be able to rank candidate design concepts for relative probability of success or technical risk in all the important combustion device design requirements and combustion process development risk categories before committing to an engine development program. Even if a single analytical design concept cannot be developed to predict satisfying all requirements simultaneously, a series of risk mitigation key enabling technologies can be identified for early resolution. Lower cost subscale or laboratory experimentation to demonstrate proof of principle, critical instrumentation requirements, and design discriminating test plans can be developed based on the physical insight provided by these analyses.

Ito, Jackson I.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Commercial integration of advanced nuclear energy with Artificial Intelligence (AI): Possible implications

The integration of advanced nuclear technologies (both fission and fusion) with artificial intelligence (AI) presents unprecedented national security challenges and opportunities. As fusion energy approaches commercial viability alongside advanced Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), their integration with AI and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) systems could fundamentally transform the global energy and AI landscapes — two pillars of national security. This document briefly examines how AI could accelerate nuclear energy development and deployment while altering existing power structures, a lot could be done to deepen the discussions. Simultaneously, it observes how nuclear-powered AI may expedite advances toward AGI and beyond. These issues are deeply interconnected and thus need to be examined as a whole and more comprehensively than what’s being summarized here. For instance, AI-powered autonomous operation of nuclear facilities could reduce human error but introduce new cybersecurity vulnerabilities and uncertainties. Further investigation would also address how AI-enhanced nuclear technologies might complicate proliferation concerns through advanced fuel cycle management, nuclear materials production and safeguard. The strategic advantage gained by first entities achieving successful AI-nuclear integration could reshape global and national security framework. Timely analysis of these implications may be crucial for policymakers seeking to harness these technologies' benefits while effectively mitigating their potential risks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1999

Multi-Dimensional Quantum Tunneling and Transport Using the Density-Gradient Model

We show that quantum effects are likely to significantly degrade the performance of MOSFETs (metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor) as these devices are scaled below 100 nm channel length and 2 nm oxide thickness over the next decade. A general and computationally efficient electronic device model including quantum effects would allow us to monitor and mitigate these effects. Full quantum models are too expensive in multi-dimensions. Using a general but efficient PDE solver called PROPHET, we implemented the density-gradient (DG) quantum correction to the industry-dominant classical drift-diffusion (DD) model. The DG model efficiently includes quantum carrier profile smoothing and tunneling in multi-dimensions and for any electronic device structure. We show that the DG model reduces DD model error from as much as 50% down to a few percent in comparison to thin oxide MOS capacitance measurements. We also show the first DG simulations of gate oxide tunneling and transverse current flow in ultra-scaled MOSFETs. The advantages of rapid model implementation using the PDE solver approach will be demonstrated, as well as the applicability of the DG model to any electronic device structure.

Biegel, Bryan A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Parameterizing Spectral Surface Reflectance Relationships for the Dark Target Aerosol Algorithm Applied to A Geostationary Imager

Originally developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in polar, sun-synchronous low-earth orbit (LEO), the Dark Target (DT) aerosol retrieval algorithm relies on the assumption of a Surface Reflectance Parameterization (SRP) over land surfaces. Specifically for vegetated and dark-soiled surfaces, values of surface reflectance in blue and red visible-wavelength bands are assumed to be nearly linearly related to each other and to the value in a shortwave infrared (SWIR) wavelength band. This SRP also includes dependencies on scattering angle and a normalized difference vegetation index computed from two SWIR bands (NDVISWIR). As the DT retrieval algorithm is being ported to new sensors to continue and expand the aerosol data record, we assess whether the MODIS-assumed SRP can be used for these sensors. Here, we specifically assess SRP for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16/East (ABIE). First, we find that using MODIS-based SRP leads to higher biases and artificial diurnal signatures in aerosol optical depth (AOD)retrievals from ABIE. The primary reason appears to be that geostationary orbit (GEO) encounters an entirely different set of observation geometry than does LEO, primarily with regards to solar angles coupled with fixed view angles. Therefore, we have developed a new SRP for GEO that draws the angular shape of the surface bidirectional reflectance. We also introduce modifications to the parametrization of both red-SWIR and blue-red spectral relationships to include additional information.The revised Red-SWIR SRP includes solar zenith angle, NDVISWIR, and land-type percentage from an ancillary database. The blue-red SRP adds dependencies on the scattering angle and NDVISWIR. The new SRPs improve the AOD retrieval of ABIE in terms of overall less bias and mitigation of the overestimation around local noon. The average bias of DT AOD compared to AERONET AOD shows a reduction from 0.08 to 0.03, while the bias of local solar noon decreases from 0.12 to 0.03.The agreement between DT and AERONET AOD is established through regression slope of 1.06 and y-intercept of 0.01with correlation coefficient is0.74. By using the new SRP, the percentage of data falling within the expected error range (±0.05 + 15%) is notably risen from 54% to 78%.

Mijin Kim↗
DOE OSTI2025

High‐Asymmetry Metasurface: A New Solution for Terahertz Resonance via Active Learning‐Augmented Diffusion Model

Terahertz (THz) metamaterials with high‐figure‐of‐merit (high‐FoM) performance resonance are essential for advancing sensors, detectors, and imagers. Conventional designs focus on symmetric or low‐asymmetry geometric structures, leaving high‐asymmetry designs largely unexplored due to the inefficiency of trial‐and‐error‐based rational design. Recent deep learning techniques offer automation and acceleration but are constrained by the need for large datasets inherent to their data‐driven nature. Here, a novel prior knowledge‐guided generative model augmented by a physics‐constrained active learning mechanism to design high‐asymmetry metamaterials. An advanced diffusion model learns features from a small set of classical structures with high‐FoM THz resonance and generates new high‐asymmetry structures. To mitigate the limited number of classical structures, the generated high‐asymmetry structures are actively selected and integrated into the initial training dataset based on their physical characteristics. Experimental results demonstrate the superior resonance performance of the generated high‐asymmetry metamaterials over classical designs, exhibiting improvements exceeding 30% in key resonance metrics. Remarkably, this performance is attained using only 68 classical structures as the initial training dataset, significantly reducing the data requirements for deep learning‐based metamaterial design. The proposed scheme for generating high‐asymmetry structures provides a new effective and efficient solution for high‐FoM resonance, expanding applications in high‐sensitivity THz metadevices.

diffusion model↗