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NASA NTRS1997

Experimental and Computational Studies of the Flow Over a Sting Mounted Planetary Probe Configuration

This paper summarizes the results of a series of experimental studies in the LENS shock tunnel and computations with DSMC and Navier Stokes codes which have been made to examine the aerothermal and flowfield characteristics of the flow over a sting-supported planetary probe configuration in hypervelocity air and nitrogen flows. The experimental program was conducted in the LENS hypervelocity shock tunnel at total enthalpies of 5and 10 MJkg for a range of reservoir pressure conditions from 70 to 500 bars. Heat transfer and pressure measurements were made on the front and rear face of the probe and along the supporting sting. High-speed and single shot schlieren photography were also employed to examine the flow over the model and the time to establish the flow in the base recirculation region. Predictions of the flowfield characteristics and the distributions of heat transfer and pressure were made with DSMC codes for rarefied flow conditions and with the Navier-Stokes solvers for the higher pressure conditions where the flows were assumed to be laminar. Analysis of the time history records from the heat transfer and pressure instrumentation on the face of the probe and in the base region indicated that the base flow was fully established in under 4 milliseconds from flow initiation or between 35 and 50 flow lengths based on base height. The measurements made in three different tunnel entries with two models of identical geometries but with different instrumentation packages, one prepared by NASA Langley and the second prepared by CUBRC, demonstrated good agreement between heat transfer measurements made with two different types of thin film and coaxial gage instrumentation. The measurements of heat transfer and pressure to the front face of the probe were in good agreement with theoretical predictions from both the DSMC and Navier Stokes codes. For the measurements made in low density flows, computations with the DSMC code were found to compare well with the pressure and heat transfer measurements on the sting, although the computed heat transfer rates in the recirculation region did not exhibit the same characteristics as the measurements. For the 10MJkg and 500 bar reservoir match point condition, the measurements and heat transfer along the sting from the first group of studies were in agreement with the Navier Stokes solutions for laminar conditions. A similar set of measurements made in later tests where the model was moved to a slightly different position in the test section indicated that the boundary layer in the reattachment compression region was close to transition or transitional where small changes in the test environment can result in larger than laminar heating rates. The maximum heating coefficients on the sting observed in the present studies was a small fraction of similar measurements obtained at nominally the same conditions in the HEG shock tunnel, where it is possible for transition to occur in the base flow, and in the low enthalpy studies conducted in the NASA Langley high Reynolds number Mach 10 tunnel where the base flow was shown to be turbulent. While the hybrid Navier- StokedDMSC calculations by Gochberg et al. (Reference 1) suggested that employing the Navier- Stokes calculations for the entire flowfield could be seriously in error in the base region for the 10 MJkg, 500 bar test case, similar calculations performed by Cornell, presented here, do not.

Holden, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Tactical Conflict Detection in Terminal Airspace

Air traffic systems have long relied on automated short-term conflict prediction algorithms to warn controllers of impending conflicts (losses of separation). The complexity of terminal airspace has proven difficult for such systems as it often leads to excessive false alerts. Thus, the legacy system, called Conflict Alert, which provides short-term alerts in both en-route and terminal airspace currently, is often inhibited or degraded in areas where frequent false alerts occur, even though the alerts are provided only when an aircraft is in dangerous proximity of other aircraft. This research investigates how a minimal level of flight intent information may be used to improve short-term conflict detection in terminal airspace such that it can be used by the controller to maintain legal aircraft separation. The flight intent information includes a site-specific nominal arrival route and inferred altitude clearances in addition to the flight plan that includes the RNAV (Area Navigation) departure route. A new tactical conflict detection algorithm is proposed, which uses a single analytic trajectory, determined by the flight intent and the current state information of the aircraft, and includes a complex set of current, dynamic separation standards for terminal airspace to define losses of separation. The new algorithm is compared with an algorithm that imitates a known en-route algorithm and another that imitates Conflict Alert by analysis of false-alert rate and alert lead time with recent real-world data of arrival and departure operations and a large set of operational error cases from Dallas/Fort Worth TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach Control). The new algorithm yielded a false-alert rate of two per hour and an average alert lead time of 38 seconds.

Tang, Huabin↗

NASA NTRS2001

Twenty Years of Radiation Measurements in Low-Earth Orbit - What Have We Learned Space Radiation Environment?

The advent of the Space Shuttle program has made possible space radiation environment measurements spanning a wide range of altitudes and orbital inclinations over multiple solar cycles. These measurements range from routine integral dose measurements with thermoluminescent dosimeters to particle energy spectra measurements made with a charged particle telescope. This paper will review the new understanding about the space radiation environment gained from this diverse data set. Major findings from these measurements include: estimations of the westward drift rate of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of 0.28-0.49/y; evidence for a northward component to the SAA drift of 0.08-0.12/y; observation of the formation and decay of the pseudo-stable additional radiation belt following the Mar 1991 SPE and geomagnetic storm with an estimated decay e-folding time of 9-10 months; observation of a local geomagnetic east-west trapped proton exposure anisotropy with an estimated magnitude of 1.6-3.3; demonstration that the trapped proton exposure in low-Earth orbit (LEO) can be reasonably modeled as a power law function of atmospheric density in the SAA region, with best correlations obtained when the exospheric temperature saturates at 938-975 K; the actual solar cycle modulation of trapped proton exposure in LEO is less than predicted by the AP8 model; and the testing and validation of GCR flux models, radiation transport codes, and dynamic geomagnetic cutoff models. Long-term, time-resolved proportional counter measurements made aboard the Mir during the same period provides further demonstration of the solar cycle modulation of the trapped protons at low altitudes - the observed modulation is also well described as power law function of atmospheric density. These data and findings have helped to improve the overall accuracy of pre-mission crew exposure projections using various semi-empirical space environment models, radiation transport codes, and spacecraft radiation shielding models. During the rise phase of solar cycle 22 (1987-1991), the RMS error between preflight exposure projections and measured crew exposure was 73%. For the rise phase of cycle 23 (1997-2001), the preflight exposure projection RMS error has decreased to 23%. The launch and assembly of the Space Station has begun a new era of long-term LEO space environment monitoring. The radiation environment at the Space Station will be monitored with three external charged particle telescopes oriented in the velocity vector, anti-velocity vector, and zenith directions. Data from the telescopes will provide charge, mass, energy, and arrival direction for incident particles with energy to mass ratios of 13- 450 MeV/amu and Z of 1-24. The external environment data will be complimented by measurements from a portable charged particle telescope and proportional counter located inside the vehicle.

Golightly, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The onset of galactic winds in early-type galaxies

We completed the spectral analysis of 31 early-type galaxies to investigate whether their x-ray emission was predominantly due to thermal bremsstrahlung from a hot gaseous corona or emission from discrete, galactic sources such as x-ray binaries. If a corona dominates the x-ray emission, its spectra is expected to be relatively cool (0.5 - 1 keV) compared to the harder emission associated with x-ray binaries in our galaxy, the Magellanic Clouds and M31. While it is generally accepted that the x-ray emission in luminous E and S0 galaxies arises from hot coronae, the status of hot gas in lower luminosity (and hence lower mass) galaxies is less clear. Calculations show that, for a given supernova rate, a critical galaxy luminosity (mass) exists below which the gas cannot be gravitationally confined and a galactic wind is predicted to be effective in expelling gas from the galaxy. Since significant mass (a dark halo) is required to hold a hot, gaseous corona around a galaxy, we expect that the faintest, smallest galaxies will not have a hot corona, but their x-ray emission will be dominated by galactic sources or by an active galactic nuclei. In the sample we tested which spanned the absolute magnitude range from -21.5 to -19.5, we found that except for two galaxies whose x-ray emission was dominated by an active nucleus, that the others were consistent with emission from hot gas. We also found that there is a correlation between gas temperature and galaxy magnitude (mass), such that the brighter, more luminous galaxies have hotter gas temperatures. Thus even at relatively faint magnitudes, the dominant emission from early-type galaxies appears to be hot gas. We also carried out an investigation of the x-ray surface brightness distribution of the x-ray emission for about 100 early type galaxies to determine whether the x-ray emission from galaxies are extended. Extended x-ray emission is expected if the emission is due to a hot gaseous corona. We determined the ratio of the source counts in two annuli (0-80 arc seconds and 80-160 arc seconds) for each galaxy and analyzed these ratios using a maximum likelihood estimator to determine the errors on the ratios. Even for weak sources, this ratio provides a sensitive test for source extent. We then compared these ratios to a sample of quasars (all unresolved sources) and have determined which galaxies are extended and which are consistent with point sources. A first paper including the Einstein x-ray fluxes for 147 early-type galaxies has been published in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series (with Roberts, Hogg, Bregman, Forman entitled 'Interstellar Matter in Early-Type Galaxies'). A second paper will describe the spectral and extent analysis carried out for this galaxy sample. These results also have been presented at scientific conferences and in colloquia.

Jones, Christine↗

NASA NTRS2007

Determining Desirable Cursor Control Device Characteristics for NASA Exploration Missions

The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) that will travel to the moon and Mars, and all future Exploration vehicles and habitats will be highly computerized, necessitating an accurate method of interaction with the computers. The design of a cursor control device will have to take into consideration g-forces, vibration, gloved operations, and the specific types of tasks to be performed. The study described here is being undertaken to begin identifying characteristics of cursor control devices that will work well for the unique Exploration mission environments. The objective of the study is not to identify a particular device, but to begin identifying design characteristics that are usable and desirable for space missions. Most cursor control devices have strengths and weaknesses; they are more appropriate for some tasks and less suitable for others. The purpose of this study is to collect some initial usability data on a large number of commercially available and proprietary cursor control devices. A software test battery was developed for this purpose. Once data has been collected using these low-level, basic point/click/drag tasks, higher fidelity, scenario-driven evaluations will be conducted with a reduced set of devices. The standard tasks used for testing cursor control devices are based on a model of human movement known as Fitts law. Fitts law predicts that the time to acquire a target is logarithmically related to the distance over the target size. To gather data for analysis with this law, fundamental, low-level tasks are used such as dragging or pointing at various targets of different sizes from various distances. The first four core tasks for the study were based on the ISO 9241-9:(2000) document from the International Organization for Standardization that contains the requirements for non-keyboard input devices. These include two pointing tasks, one dragging and one tracking task. The fifth task from ISO 9241-9, the circular tracking task was not used because it is a movement that is not applicable to most of the applications used on aviation displays. Additionally, we opted to add a multi-size and multi-distance pointing task, and two ecologically more valid tasks which included text selection, and interaction with drop down menus, sliders, and checkboxes. The Visual Basic test battery tracks the task and trial numbers, measures the pointing, tracking or dragging time, as well as the number and types of errors. The testing session includes a practice set for each input device, then the randomized 7 tasks, and finally a questionnaire about the device. This is repeated for all the devices tested within a session. The experiment is a within-subjects design, with participants returning for multiple sessions to test additional devices. The input devices will be compared based on objective performance data from the tasks, as well as subjective feedback and ratings on the questionnaire.

Aniko Sandor↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of Gamma-Ray Data from Solar Flares in Cycles 21 and 22

One of our primary accomplishments under grant NAGW-35381 was the systematic derivation and compilation, for the first time, of physical parameters for all gamma-ray flares detected by the SMM GRS during its ten year lifetime. The flare parameters derived from the gamma-ray spectra include: bremsstrahlung fluence and best-fit power-law parameters, narrow nuclear line fluence, positron annihilation line fluence, neutron capture line fluence, and an indication of whether or not greater than 10 MeV emissions were present. We combined this compilation of flare parameters with our plots of counting rate time histories and flare spectra to construct an atlas of gamma-ray flare characteristics. The atlas time histories display four energy bands: 56-199 kev, 298526 keV, 4-8 MeV, and 10-25 MeV. These energy bands respectively measure nonrelativistic bremsstrahlung, trans-relativistic bremsstrahlung, nuclear de-excitation, and ultra-relativistic bremsstrahlung. The atlas spectra show the integrated high-energy spectra measured for all GRS flares and dissects them into electron bremsstrahlung, positron annihilation and nuclear emission components. The atlas has been accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplements and is currently in press. The atlas materials were also supplied to the Solar Data Analysis Center at Goddard Space Flight Center and were made available through a web site at the University of New Hampshire. Since a uniform methodology was adopted for deriving the flare parameters, this atlas will be very useful for future statistical and correlative studies of solar flares-three independent groups are presently using it to correlate interplanetary energetic particle measurements with our gamma-ray measurements. A better model for the response of the GRS instrument to high energy radiation was also developed. A refined response model was needed because the old model was not adequate for predicting the first and second escape peaks associated with strong nuclear lines nor could it accurately describe the Compton continuum shape. The new response was developed using a GEANT based simulation code and tested against preflight calibration data. The refinement of the response model and the removal of systematic errors now allow more detailed spectral studies of the GRS gamma-ray measurements. This refined response function was supplied to the Solar DAC at Goddard and was also made available via a web site at the University of New Hampshire.

Vestrand, W. Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2017

Novel Estimation of Pilot Performance Characteristics

Two mechanisms internal to the pilot that affect performance during a tracking task are: 1) Pilot equalization (i.e. lead/lag); and 2) Pilot gain (i.e. sensitivity to the error signal). For some applications McRuer's Crossover Model can be used to anticipate what equalization will be employed to control a vehicle's dynamics. McRuer also established approximate time delays associated with different types of equalization - the more cognitive processing that is required due to equalization difficulty, the larger the time delay. However, the Crossover Model does not predict what the pilot gain will be. A nonlinear pilot control technique, observed and coined by the authors as 'amplitude clipping', is shown to improve stability, performance, and reduce workload when employed with vehicle dynamics that require high lead compensation by the pilot. Combining linear and nonlinear methods a novel approach is used to measure the pilot control parameters when amplitude clipping is present, allowing precise measurement in real time of key pilot control parameters. Based on the results of an experiment which was designed to probe workload primary drivers, a method is developed that estimates pilot spare capacity from readily observable measures and is tested for generality using multi-axis flight data. This paper documents the initial steps to developing a novel, simple objective metric for assessing pilot workload and its variation over time across a wide variety of tasks. Additionally, it offers a tangible, easily implementable methodology for anticipating a pilot's operating parameters and workload, and an effective design tool. The model shows promise in being able to precisely predict the actual pilot settings and workload, and observed tolerance of pilot parameter variation over the course of operation. Finally, an approach is proposed for generating Cooper-Harper ratings based on the workload and parameter estimation methodology.

Human pilot models↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Array of Optical Receivers for Deep-Space Communications

An array of small optical receivers is proposed as an alternative to a single large optical receiver for high-data-rate communications in NASA s Deep Space Network (DSN). Because the telescope for a single receiver capable of satisfying DSN requirements must be greater than 10 m in diameter, the design, building, and testing of the telescope would be very difficult and expensive. The proposed array would utilize commercially available telescopes of 1-m or smaller diameter and, therefore, could be developed and verified with considerably less difficulty and expense. The essential difference between a single-aperture optical-communications receiver and an optical-array receiver is that a single-aperture receiver focuses all of the light energy it collects onto the surface of an optical detector, whereas an array receiver focuses portions of the total collected energy onto separate detectors, optically detects each fractional energy component, then combines the electrical signal from the array of detector outputs to form the observable, or "decision statistic," used to decode the transmitted data. A conceptual block diagram identifying the key components of the optical-array receiver suitable for deep-space telemetry reception is shown in the figure. The most conspicuous feature of the receiver is the large number of small- to medium-size telescopes, with individual apertures and number of telescopes selected to make up the desired total collecting area. This array of telescopes is envisioned to be fully computer- controlled via the user interface and prediction-driven to achieve rough pointing and tracking of the desired spacecraft. Fine-pointing and tracking functions then take over to keep each telescope pointed toward the source, despite imperfect pointing predictions, telescope-drive errors, and vibration caused by wind.

Vilnrotter, Chi-Wung↗

NASA NTRS2012

Airborne Measurements of Atmospheric Pressure made Using an IPDA Lidar Operating in the Oxygen A-Band

We report airborne measurements of atmospheric pressure made using an integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar that operates in the oxygen A-band near 765 nm. Remote measurements of atmospheric temperature and pressure are needed for NASA s Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions Over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission to measure atmospheric CO2. Accurate measurements of tropospheric CO2 on a global scale are very important in order to better understand its sources and sinks and to improve our predictions of climate change. The goal of ASCENDS is to determine the CO2 dry mixing ratio with lidar measurements from space at a level of ~1 ppm. Analysis to date shows that with current weather models, measurements of both the CO2 column density and the column density of dry air are needed. Since O2 is a stable molecule that uniformly mixed in the atmosphere, measuring O2 absorption in the atmosphere can be used to infer the dry air density. We have developed an airborne (IPDA) lidar for Oxygen, with support from the NASA ESTO IIP program. Our lidar uses DFB-based seed laser diodes, a pulsed modulator, a fiber laser amplifier, and a non-linear crystal to generate wavelength tunable 765 nm laser pulses with a few uJ/pulse energy. The laser pulse rate is 10 KHz, and average transmitted laser power is ~20 mW. Our lidar steps laser pulses across a selected line O2 doublet near 764.7 nm in the Oxygen A-band. The direct detection lidar receiver uses a 20 cm diameter telescope, a Si APD detector in Geiger mode, and a multi-channel scalar to detect and record the time resolved laser backscatter in 40 separate wavelength channels. Subsequent analysis is used to estimate the transmission line shape of the doublet for the laser pulses reflected from the ground. Ground based data analysis allows averaging from 1 to 60 seconds to increase SNR in the transmission line shape of the doublet. Our retrieval algorithm fits the expected O2 lineshapes against the measurements and determines the atmospheric pressure by minimizing the error between the observations and model. We first demonstrated our airborne lidar during flights during summer 2010. We made several improvements and made measurements during the Ascends flights during July 2011. More information about the technique, lidar instrument, airborne measurements, and pressure estimates will be described in the presentation.

Riris, Haris↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmological Constraints from Combining Photometric Galaxy Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observatories

Spatial variations in survey properties due to selection effects generate substantial systematic errors in large-scale structure measurements in optical galaxy surveys on very large scales. On such scales, the statistical sensitivity of optical surveys is also limited by their finite sky coverage. By contrast, gravitational wave (GW) sources appear to be relatively free of these issues, provided the angular sensitivity of GW experiments can be accurately characterized. We quantify the expected cosmological information gain from combining the forecast LSST 3$\times$2pt analysis (combination of three 2-point correlations of galaxy density and weak lensing shear fields) with the large-scale auto-correlation of GW sources from proposed next-generation GW experiments. We find that in $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM models, there is no significant improvement in cosmological constraints from combining GW with LSST 3$\times$2pt over LSST alone, due to the large shot noise for the former; however, this combination does enable a $\sim6\%$ constraint on the linear galaxy bias of GW sources. More interestingly, the optical-GW data combination provides tight constraints on models with primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), due to the predicted scale-dependent bias in PNG models on large scales. Assuming that the largest angular scales that LSST will probe are comparable to those in Stage III surveys ($\ell_{\rm min}\sim50$), the inclusion of next-generation GW measurements could improve constraints on the PNG parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ by up to a factor of $\simeq6.6$ compared to LSST alone, yielding $\sigma(f_{\rm NL})=8.5$. These results assume the expected capability of a network of Einstein Telescope-like GW observatories, with a detection rate of $10^6$ events/year. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to different assumptions about future GW detectors as well as different LSST analysis choices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2007

Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis

Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.

Orbit determination↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermodynamic and Diffusion Model Estimates on Metamorphic Temperatures and Timescales for Basaltic Eucrite GRA 98098

Introduction: HED meteorites are thought to rep-resent igneous rocks from Vesta’s basaltic crust and preserve evidence of early crustal metamorphism. Determining the temperatures and timescales of thermal metamorphism is important for reconstructing crustal evolution in the early solar system. Here, we study basaltic eucrite Graves Nunataks (GRA) 98098, which has been identified as a highly metamorphosed eucrite [1]. We present new estimates on metamorphic temperatures determined via thermodynamic modeling as well as the initial results from diffusion models constraining timescales of thermal metamorphism. Sample Description: GRA 98098 is an unbrecciated eucrite with a granoblastic plagioclase and pyroxene mineralogy. Millimeter to cm-long lathes of tridymite cross-cut and poikilitically enclose plagioclase and pyroxene [1,this work]. Pyroxene grains have exsolved into Ca-rich (~Wo38En29Fs33) and Ca-poor (~Wo4.5En36Fs59.5) lamellae. Both unzoned and zoned plagioclase grains are observed. Unzoned plagioclase grains are found solely with tridymite laths. These grains have ~An92 compositions. The cores of the zoned plagioclase grains have the same composition and thin, relatively sodic rims (~An67), (Fig. 1). The bulk sample is unusually enriched in highly in-compatible elements and has one of the most fractionated REE patterns reported [1]. Maximum metamorphic temperatures of 985±78°C have been estimated using two-pyroxene thermometry [2]. Methods: Thermodynamic modeling. Thermodynamic models were constructed using the software Perple_X, which employs a Gibbs free energy minimization in order to determine the most stable phase assemblage for a given bulk rock composition [3]. Bulk composition was calculated using mineral com-positions acquired via EMPA (this study) and the observed abundancies present in the thin section. Two bulk compositions were estimated; 1) includes all phases present in the thin section, (assumes that all phases are present during metamorphism), 2) excludes tridymite from the bulk calculation (assumes that tridymite was not present during metamorphism). In order to determine whether metamorphic equilibria was achieved and estimate temperatures of metamorphism, we compared measured pyroxene compositions with thermodynamically predicted compositions [4, Fig. 2]. Diffusion Modeling. Several time-temperature de-pendent diffusion profiles were calculated in order to determine the best match for XAn chemical profiles observed at the edges of the zoned plagioclase (Fig. 3). We assumed that the start condition was a stepwise gradient at the plagioclase/pyroxene interface. We also assumed an average diffusion coefficient (D) and a constant temperature using the equation in [5]. D was determined for two temperatures (T = 1060ºC; near eucrite solidus [6] and T = 985ºC; metamorphism reported in [4]) and then XAn was calculated as a function of distance from plagioclase core to rim using an error function solution to Fick’s second law. Results: Thermodynamic model results are summarized in Fig. 2. For a bulk composition that includes all phases in the thin section, pyroxene endmember compositions plot in the following temperature ranges: Fs ~660-860ºC, En~1000ºC & 1150ºC, and Wo~760-900ºC (Fig. 2a). For a bulk composition that excludes tridymite from the peak metamorphic assemblage (i.e., the bulk composition minus the contribution from tridymite), a temperature range could not be determined for the Fs component of pyroxene. For Wo, T~760-900ºC and En, T~1000ºC & 1150ºC (Fig. 2b). Fig. 3 summarizes the diffusion model results. For T = 1060°C & 985°C, the most appropriate time interval was estimated based on which diffusion curve most matched (solid lines, Fig. 3) the EMPA data. For T = 1060°C, the best looking match was t = 500 ka. For T = 985°C, the best match was t = 7 Ma. Discussion and future work: Temperature estimates from thermodynamic models are not conclusive because the temperature ranges determined for pyroxene endmember stability do not overlap (colored fields in Fig. 2), thus implying that there is disequilibrium between pyroxene crystals and the bulk composition considered [4]. Thus, additional exploration is needed to define a metamorphically equilibrated do-main that accurately records peak temperature. The utility of defining metamorphically equilibrated do-mains to improve the accuracy and level of detail elucidated regarding the petrogenetic history of metamorphose samples has been demonstrated previously [4,7]. We suggest that in the case of Fig. 2a, the thin section composition is not representative of the length scales over which metamorphic equilibrium was achieve and in the case of Fig. 2b, the assumption that tridymite was not present during metamorphism was incorrect. However, results from thermodynamic models can provide insight into the relative timing of mineral and compositional textures. For example from texture alone, it is unclear whether tridymite was igneous in origin and represents the last bits of melt in a crystallizing magma chamber, or if it formed during (and possibly initiated) open system thermal metamorphism. The latter could be consistent with a partial melt hypothesis [8,9] while the former implies that simple fractional crystallization can yield the textures present in GRA 98098. The lack of coincidence be-tween pyroxene endmember compositions in Fig. 2b suggest that the bulk composition minus tridymite was not the assemblage in equilibrium with the pyroxene, suggesting that tridymite was present during metamorphism and formed during igneous crystallization. We conclude that the development of the Na-rich plagioclase rims likely occurred during or immediately after peak thermal metamorphism, because eucrites of similar metamorphic grade and texture have unzoned plagioclase (~An92) [2,4,8], and Na zoning is only observed in the plagioclase not included in the tridymite. This suggests that the zoning formed after tridymite formation, and therefore after igneous crystallization. Thus, the timescales calculated via diffusion modeling possibly represent the time interval over which thermal metamorphism occurred. Cooling rates approximated for the Vestan crust predict that the crust cooled below 300°C around 35-40 Ma after formation[10]. This is consistent with our modeling results that predict formation of the Na rich plagioclase rims occurring at higher temperatures over a period of 0.5 to 7 Ma years. Future work. Additional thermodynamic modeling work will focus on selecting an equilibrated bulk rock domain in which to elucidate metamorphic conditions. Diffusion models currently provide a minimum time-scale, since diffusion slows down as the system cools. Future work with will focus on integrating cooling into the diffusion models and constraining the depth at which thermal metamorphism occurs because it could be used to determine whether the range of time-scales calculated for thermal metamorphism are consistent with the geologic environment.

J S Gorce↗

NASA NTRS2015

Construction of Polarimetric Radar-Based Reference Rain Maps for the Iowa Flood Studies Campaign

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign was conducted in central and northeastern Iowa during the months of April-June, 2013. Specific science objectives for IFloodS included quantification of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based estimates of precipitation, 4-D characterization of precipitation physical processes and associated parameters (e.g., size distributions, water contents, types, structure etc.), assessment of the impact of precipitation estimation uncertainty and physical processes on hydrologic predictive skill, and refinement of field observations and data analysis approaches as they pertain to future GPM integrated hydrologic validation and related field studies. In addition to field campaign archival of raw and processed satellite data (including precipitation products), key ground-based platforms such as the NASA NPOL S-band and D3R Ka/Ku-band dual-polarimetric radars, University of Iowa X-band dual-polarimetric radars, a large network of paired rain gauge platforms, and a large network of 2D Video and Parsivel disdrometers were deployed. In something of a canonical approach, the radar (NPOL in particular), gauge and disdrometer observational assets were deployed to create a consistent high-quality distributed (time and space sampling) radar-based ground "reference" rainfall dataset, with known uncertainties, that could be used for assessing the satellite-based precipitation products at a range of space/time scales. Subsequently, the impact of uncertainties in the satellite products could be evaluated relative to the ground-benchmark in coupled weather, land-surface and distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks as related to flood prediction. Relative to establishing the ground-based "benchmark", numerous avenues were pursued in the making and verification of IFloodS "reference" dual-polarimetric radar-based rain maps, and this study documents the process and results as they pertain specifically to efforts using the NPOL radar dataset. The initial portions of the "process" involved dual-polarimetric quality control procedures which employed standard phase and correlation-based approaches to removal of clutter and non-meteorological echo. Calculation of a scale-adaptive KDP was accomplished using the method of Wang and Chandrasekar (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.). A dual-polarimetric blockage algorithm based on Lang et al. (2009; J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.) was then implemented to correct radar reflectivity and differential reflectivity at low elevation angles. Next, hydrometeor identification algorithms were run to identify liquid and ice hydrometeors. After the quality control and data preparation steps were completed several different dual-polarimetric rain estimation algorithms were employed to estimate rainfall rates using rainfall scans collected approximately every two to three minutes throughout the campaign. These algorithms included a polarimetrically-tuned Z-R algorithm that adjusts for drop oscillations (via Bringi et al., 2004, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.), and several different hybrid polarimetric variable approaches, including one that made use of parameters tuned to IFloodS 2D Video Disdrometer measurements. Finally, a hybrid scan algorithm was designed to merge the rain rate estimates from multiple low level elevation angle scans (where blockages could not be appropriately corrected) in order to create individual low-level rain maps. Individual rain maps at each time step were subsequently accumulated over multiple time scales for comparison to gauge network data. The comparison results and overall error character depended strongly on rain event type, polarimetric estimator applied, and range from the radar. We will present the outcome of these comparisons and their impact on constructing composited "reference" rainfall maps at select time and space scales.

Radar↗

NASA NTRS1998

RH1020 Single Event Clock Upset Summary Report

This report summarizes the testing and analysis of "single event clock upset' in the RH1020. Also included are SEU-rate predictions and design recommendations for risk analysis and reduction. The subject of "upsets" in the RH1020 is best understood by using a model consisting of a global clock buffer and a D-type flip-flop as the basic memory unit. The RH1020 is built on the ACT 1 family architecture. As such, it has one low-skew global clock buffer with a TTL-level input threshold that is accessed via a single dedicated pin. The clock signal is driven to full CMOS levels, buffered, and sent to individual row buffers with one buffer per channel. For low-skew performance, the outputs of all of the RH1020 row buffers are shorted together via metal lines, as is done in the A1020B. All storage in the RH1020 consists of routed flip-flops, constructed with multiplexors and feedback through the routing segments. A simple latch can be constructed from a single (combinatorial or C) module; an edge-triggered flip-flop is constructed using two concatenated latches. There is no storage in the I/O modules. The front end of the clock buffering circuitry, at a common point relative to the row buffer, is a sub-circuit that was determined to be the most susceptible to heavy ions. This is due, in part, to its smaller transistors compared to the rest of the circuitry. This conclusion is also supported by SPICE simulations and an analysis of the heavy ion data, described in this report. The edge triggered D flip-flop has two single-event-upset modes. Mode one, called C-module upset, is caused by a heavy ion striking the C-module's sensitive area on the silicon and produces a soft single bit error at the output of the flip-flop. Mode two, called clock upset, is caused by a heavy ion strike on the clock buffer, generating a runt pulse interpreted as a false clock signal and consequently producing errors at the flip-flop outputs. C-module upset sensitivity in the RH1020 is essentially the same as that of its ACT 1 siblings (A1020, A1020A and A1020B), which were well tested, analyzed, and documented in the literature.

Katz, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Flows Under Local, Regional and Airport Weather Constraints

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

NASA NTRS2017

Models of Sector Aircraft Counts in the Presence of Local, Regional and Airport Constraints

Kulkarni, Deepak↗