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A theorem on the methods of least-squares estimation is stated and proved. This theorem enables the replacement of a system of correlated measurements by an equivalent system of uncorrelated measurements without a whitening process, thus simplifying the analysis while resulting in the same minimum-variance estimate.
Recursive estimation equation giving algorithms for prediction, filtering, and signal smoothing in discrete linear systems
Gain of optimal filter and predictor, using recursive estimation in discrete linear systems
Algorithm for fast digital computer recursive estimation of mean of random variable
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A state-space approach to parameter estimation in linear functional differential equations is developed using the theory of linear evolution equations. A locally convergent quasi-Newton type algorithm is applied to distributed systems with particular emphasis on parameters that induce unbounded perturbations of the state. The algorithm is computationally implemented on several functional differential equations, including coefficient and delay estimation in linear delay-differential equations.
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Electrical impedance spectrometry involves measurement of the complex resistance of a load at multiple frequencies. With this information in the form of impedance magnitude and phase, or resistance and reactance, basic structure or function of the load can be estimated. The "load" targeted for measurement and estimation in this study consisted of the water-bearing tissues of the human calf. It was proposed and verified that by measuring the electrical impedance of the human calf and fitting this data to a model of fluid compartments, the lumped-model volume of intracellular and extracellular spaces could be estimated, By performing this estimation over time, the volume dynamics during application of stimuli which affect the direction of gravity can be viewed. The resulting data can form a basis for further modeling and verification of cardiovascular and compartmental modeling of fluid reactions to microgravity as well as countermeasures to the headward shift of fluid during head-down tilt or spaceflight.
A system includes a remote station and a local station having a receiver. The receiver operates in an unlocked state corresponding to its best lock frequency (BLF). The local station derives data indicative of a ratio of the BLF to a reference frequency of the receiver, and telemeters the data to the remote station. The remote station estimates the BLF based on (i) the telemetered data, and (ii) a predetermined estimate of the reference frequency.
A launch vehicle can experience large unsteady aerodynamic forces in the transonic regime that, while usually only lasting for tens of seconds during launch, could be devastating if structural components and electronic hardware are not designed to account for them. These aerodynamic loads are difficult to experimentally measure and even harder to computationally estimate. The current method for estimating buffet loads is through the use of a few hundred unsteady pressure transducers and wind tunnel test. Even with a large number of point measurements, the computed integrated load is not an accurate enough representation of the total load caused by buffeting. This paper discusses an attempt at using a dynamic balance to experimentally determine buffet loads on a generic scale hammer head launch vehicle model tested at NASA Ames Research Center's 11' x 11' transonic wind tunnel. To use a dynamic balance, the structural characteristics of the model needed to be identified so that the natural modal response could be and removed from the aerodynamic forces. A finite element model was created on a simplified version of the model to evaluate the natural modes of the balance flexures, assist in model design, and to compare to experimental data. Several modal tests were conducted on the model in two different configurations to check for non-linearity, and to estimate the dynamic characteristics of the model. The experimental results were used in an inverse force determination technique with a psuedo inverse frequency response function. Due to the non linearity, the model not being axisymmetric, and inconsistent data between the two shake tests from different mounting configuration, it was difficult to create a frequency response matrix that satisfied all input and output conditions for wind tunnel configuration to accurately predict unsteady aerodynamic loads.
One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.
Planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, including those influencing the PBL depth, control many aspects of weather and climate and accurate models of these processes are important for forecasting changes in the future. However, evaluation of model estimates of PBL depth are difficult because no consensus on PBL depth definition currently exists and various methods for estimating this parameter can give results that differ by hundreds of meters or more. In order to facilitate comparisons between the Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS-5) and other modeling and observational systems, seven PBL depth estimation methods are used to produce PBL depth climatologies and are evaluated and compared here. All seven methods evaluate the same atmosphere so all differences are related solely to the definition chosen. These methods depend on the scalar diffusivity, bulk and local Richardson numbers, and the diagnosed horizontal turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). Results are aggregated by climate class in order to allow broad generalizations. The various PBL depth estimations give similar midday results with some exceptions. One method based on horizontal turbulent kinetic energy produces deeper PBL depths in the winter associated with winter storms. In warm, moist conditions, the method based on a bulk Richardson number gives results that are shallower than those given by the methods based on the scalar diffusivity. The impact of turbulence driven by radiative cooling at cloud top is most significant during the evening transition and along several regions across the oceans and methods sensitive to this cooling produce deeper PBL depths where it is most active. Additionally, Richardson number-based methods collapse better at night than methods that depend on the scalar diffusivity. This feature potentially affects tracer transport.
Three different methods of estimating masses are discussed. The 'density method' is based on the analysis of the density distribution of galaxies around the object whose mass is to be found. The 'bound-galaxy method' gives estimates of the mass of a double, triple, or quadruple system from analysis of the orbital motion of the components. The 'virial method' utilizes the formulas derived for the second method to obtain estimates of the virial-theorem masses of whole clusters, and thus to obtain upper limits on the mass of an individual galaxy in a cluster. The analytic formulas are developed and compared with computer experiments, and some applications are given.
Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements contain rich information for characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties that can be used to improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere-ocean system, although uncertainty correlation among measurements is generally ignored due to lack of knowledge on its strength and characterization. In this work, we provide a practical framework to evaluate the impact of the angular uncertainty correlation from retrieval results and a method to estimate correlation strength from retrieval fitting residuals. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification. In addition, we also discuss a flexible approach to include a correlated uncertainty model in the retrieval algorithm. The impact of angular correlation on retrieval uncertainties is discussed based on synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 measurements using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation method. Correlation properties are estimated using auto-correlation functions based on the fitting residuals from both synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 data and real AirHARP measurement, with the resulting angular correlation parameters found to be larger than 0.9 and 0.8 for reflectance and DoLP, respectively, which correspond to correlation angles of 10° and 5°. Although this study focuses on angular correlation from HARP instruments, the methodology to study and quantify uncertainty correlation is also applicable to other instruments with angular, spectral, or spatial correlations, and can help inform laboratory calibration and characterization of the instrument uncertainty structure.
Iterative methods for the approximate solution of the nonlinear state estimation problem are investigated in which the solution is retained in the form of a finite series of Chebyshev polynomials. Algorithms are presented which allow the state to be estimated from observational data in either the batch or the sequential form. The advantages of these techniques are discussed.
The classification/pixel-count method for estimating the proportion of wheat in each segment is theoretically biased even if all distributional assumptions are met. Alternative ways to estimate crop proportions are examined and their performance testing is considered. Topics covered include general linear functional estimates, the method of moments, and maximum likelihood estimators.
A method for estimating aeroelastic stability and control derivatives for flexible aircraft is developed and demonstrated using flight test data for the X-56A subscale demonstrator. The method uses the equation-error approach with frequency-domain data, and can be applied post-flight or in real time during flight. The non-dimensional aeroelastic forces and moments and the explanatory variables (including generalized displacement, rate, and acceleration states for the vibration modes) are estimated using a finite element model and onboard sensor measurements in both a least squares and Kalman filtering framework. The data are then transformed into the frequency domain for parameter estimation using equation error. This method can result in a more efficient analysis than with other iterative methods, and can leverage existing statistical tools for model structure determination, data collinearity detection, combining multiple maneuvers or prior information, and others to improve model quality.
Difference methods for asymptotic estimates of errors at numerical integration of systems of ordinary differential equations