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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Micro Cathode Arc Thruster for PhoneSat: Development and Potential Applications

NASA Ames Research Center and the George Washington University are developing an electric propulsion subsystem that will be integrated into the PhoneSat bus. Experimental tests have shown a reliable performance by firing three different thrusters at various frequencies in vacuum conditions. The interface consists of a microcontroller that sends a trigger pulse to the Pulsed Plasma Unit that is responsible for the thruster operation. A Smartphone is utilized as the main user interface for the selection of commands that control the entire system. The propellant, which is the cathode itself, is a solid cylinder made of Titanium. This simplicity in the design avoids miniaturization and manufacturing problems. The characteristics of this thruster allow an array of μCATs to perform attitude control and orbital correction maneuvers that will open the door for the implementation of an extensive collection of new mission concepts and space applications for CubeSats. NASA Ames is currently working on the integration of the system to fit the thrusters and the PPU inside a 1.5U CubeSat together with the PhoneSat bus. This satellite is intended to be deployed from the ISS in 2015 and test the functionality of the thrusters by spinning the satellite around its long axis and measure the rotational speed with the phone gyros. This test flight will raise the TRL of the propulsion system from 5 to 7 and will be a first test for further CubeSats with propulsion systems, a key subsystem for long duration or interplanetary small satellite missions.

CUBESAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Void Morphology on Detonation Initiation of PBX 9502

Accurate predictive modeling of high explosives in abnormal conditions, such as a fire, is critical to personnel safety. Modeling depends heavily on precise physical characterization of the high explosive in question. The aim of this thesis was to characterize the detonation response to shock and the microstructure at high-temperature (250°C) of PBX 9502 and use these data to attempt to model these results using a new reactive burn model called SURF (Scaled Uniform Reactive Front). In order to characterize the shock response of PBX 9502 at high-temperature a 1D gas gun experiment was designed and executed that provided shock to detonation transition data. These data were then used to do a preliminary calibration of SURF for PBX 9502 at 250°C. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) was employed to characterize the void morphology of PBX 9502 as a function of temperature. This was done in order to feed a modified version of SURF called physically informed - SURF (π-SURF) which uses the void size and quantity distribution data as measured by SANS along with the deflagration and detonation characteristics of a high explosive to inform the SURF model. The π-SURF model was then used to model both ambient and high-temperature PBX 9502 SDT response and the results were compared to the physically measured results. It was found that π-SURF works in ambient cases. At high-temperature, however, it was determined that not enough information is known about hot spot formation to use the π-SURF model for high-temperature scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1995

Satellite communications provisions on NASA Ames instrumented aircraft platforms for Earth science research/applications

Earth science activities at NASA Ames are research in atmospheric and ecosystem science, development of remote sensing and in situ sampling instruments, and their integration into scientific research platform aircraft. The use of satellite communications can greatly extend the capability of these agency research platform aircraft. Current projects and plans involve satellite links on the Perseus UAV and the ER-2 via TDRSS and a proposed experiment on the NASA Advanced Communications Technology Satellite. Provisions for data links on the Perseus research platform, via TDRSS S-band multiple access service, have been developed and are being tested. Test flights at Dryden are planned to demonstrate successful end-to-end data transfer. A Unisys Corp. airborne satcom STARLink system is being integrated into an Ames ER-2 aircraft. This equipment will support multiple data rates up to 43 Mb/s each via the TDRS S Ku-band single access service. The first flight mission for this high-rate link is planned for August 1995. Ames and JPL have proposed an ACTS experiment to use real-time satellite communications to improve wildfire research campaigns. Researchers and fire management teams making use of instrumented aircraft platforms at a prescribed burn site will be able to communicate with experts at Ames, the U.S. Forest Service, and emergency response agencies.

Shameson, L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Thermal response of composite panels

The thermochemical and flammability characteristics of laminating resins and composites currently in use and others being considered for use as aircraft interior panels are described. The properties studied included: (1) limiting oxygen index of the composite constituents; (2) fire containment capability of the composite; (3) smoke evolution from the composite; (4) thermogravimetric analysis; (5) composition of the volatile products of thermal degradation; and (6) relative toxicity of the volatile products of pyrolysis. The performance of high-temperature laminating resins such as modified phenolics, polyimides and bismaleimides is compared with the performance of epoxies. The relationship of increased fire safety with the use of polymers with high anaerobic char yield is shown. Processing parameters of the state-of-the-art epoxy resin and the advanced resin composites are detailed.

Kourtides, D. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy Storage Improves Power Plant Flexibility and Economic Performance

Most existing coal-fired power plants were designed for sustained operation at full load to maximize efficiency, reliability, and revenue, as well as to operate air pollution control devices at design conditions. Depending on plant type and design, these plants can adjust output within a fixed range in response to plant operating or market conditions. The need for flexibility driven by increased penetration of variable and non-dispatchable power generation, such as wind and solar, is shifting the traditional mission profile of thermoelectric power plants in three ways: more frequent shutdowns when market or grid conditions warrant, more aggressive load ramp rates (rate of output change), and a lower minimum sustainable load, which provides a wider operating range and helps avoid costly plant shutdowns. Recent studies have shown that the flexibility of a coal-fired power plant can be improved by energy storage. The objective of this work was to analyze a set of energy storage options and determine their impact on the flexibility and economics of a representative coal-fired power plant. The effect of three energy storage systems integrated with a coal power plant on plant flexibility and economics was investigated. The results obtained in this project show that energy storage systems integrated with a thermal power plant improve plant flexibility and participation in the energy and ancillary services markets, which improves plant financial performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Remote control of an impact demonstration vehicle

Uplink and downlink telemetry systems were installed in a Boeing 720 aircraft that was remotely flown from Rogers Dry Lake at Edwards Air Force Base and impacted into a designated crash site on the lake bed. The controlled impact demonstration (CID) program was a joint venture by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to test passenger survivability using antimisting kerosene (AMK) to inhibit postcrash fires, improve passenger seats and restraints, and improve fire-retardent materials. The uplink telemetry system was used to remotely control the aircraft and activate onboard systems from takeoff until after impact. Aircraft systems for remote control, aircraft structural response, passenger seat and restraint systems, and anthropomorphic dummy responses were recorded and displayed by the downlink stems. The instrumentation uplink and downlink systems are described.

Harney, P. F.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Performance of MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands On-orbit Calibration Algorithms

Two nearly identical copies of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are currently operated on-board the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, launched in December 1999 and May 2002, respectively. Together, they have produced an unprecedented amount of science data products, which are widely used for the studies of changes in the Earth's system of land, oceans, and atmosphere. MODIS is a cross-track scanning radiometer, which uses a two-sided scan mirror and collects data continuously over a wide scan angle range (+/-55 degree relative to the instrument nadir) each scan of 1.47 seconds. It has 36 spectral bands with wavelengths ranging from visible (VIS) to long-wave infrared (LWIR). MODIS bands 1-19 and 26 are the reflective solar bands (RSB) and bands 20-25 and 27-36 are the thermal emissive bands (TEB). MODIS was developed and designed with improvements made over its heritage sensors (such as AVHRR and Landsat) and, in particular, with more stringent calibration requirements. Because of this, MODIS was built with a set of state-of-art on-board calibrators (OBC), which include a solar diffuser (SD), a solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM), a blackbody (BB), a spectroradiometric calibration assembly (SRCA), and a space view (SV) port. With the exception of view angle differences, MODIS OBC measurements and the Earth View (EV) observations are made via the same optical path. MODIS TEB have a total of 160 individual TEB detectors (10 per band), which are located on two cold focal plane assemblies (CFPA). For nominal on-orbit operation, the CFPA temperature is controlled at 83K via a passive radiative cooler. For the TEB, the calibration requirements at specified typical scene radiances are less than or equal to 1% with an exception for the fire detection (low gain) band. MODIS TEB on-orbit calibration is performed on a scan-by-scan basis using a quadratic calibration algorithm, and data collected from sensor responses to the onboard BB and SV. The BB serves as the thermal calibration source and the SV provides measurements for the sensor's background and offsets. MODIS on-board BB is a v-grooved plate with its temperature measured using 12 platinum resistive thermistors (PRT) uniformly embedded in the BB substrate. All the BB thermistors were characterized pre-launch with reference to the NIST temperature standards. Unlike typical BB operations in many heritage sensors, which have no temperature control capability, the MODIS on-board BB can be operated at any temperatures between instrument ambient (about 270K) and 315K and can also be varied continuously within this range. This feature has significantly enhanced the MODIS' capability of tracking and updating the TEB nonlinear calibration coefficients over its entire mission. Following a brief description of MODIS TEB on-orbit calibration methodologies and its onboard BB operational activities, this paper provides a comprehensive performance assessment of MODIS TEB quadratic calibration algorithm. It examines the scan-by-scan, orbit-by-orbit, daily, and seasonal variations of detector responses and associated impact due changes in the CFPA and instrument temperatures. Specifically, this paper will analyze the contribution by each individual thermal emissive source term (BB, scan cavity, and scan mirror), the impact on the Level 1 B data product quality due to pre-launch and on-orbit calibration uncertainties. A comparison of Terra and Aqua TEB on-orbit performance, lessons learned, and suggestions for future improvements will also be made.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploring the Role of Humans and Climate over the Balkan Landscape: 500 Years of Vegetational History of Serbia

We present the first, well-dated, high-resolution record of vegetation and landscape change from Serbia, which spans the past 500 years. Biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical analysis through X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), and a detailed chronology based on AMS C-14 dating from a western Serbian sinkhole core suggest complex woodland-grassland dynamics and strong erosional signals throughout the Little Ice Age (LIA). An open landscape with prominent steppe vegetation (e.g. Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae) and minor woodland exists during 1540-1720 CE (early LIA), while the late LIA (1720-1850 CE) in this record shows higher tree percentages possibly due to increased moisture availability. The post LIA Era (1850-2012 CE) brings a disturbed type of vegetation with the presence of weedy genera and an increase in regional woodland. Anthropogenic indicators for agricultural, pastoral and fire practices in the region together attest to the dominant role of humans in shaping this Balkan landscape throughout the interval. The changing nature of human interference, potentially as a response to underlying climatic transitions, is evident through large-scale soil depletion resulting from grazing and land clearance during the early LIA and stabilization of arable lands during the late and post-LIA eras.

Topography↗
NASA NTRS2020

Command and Control System Automated Testing

To support the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has developed the Spaceport Command and Control System (SCCS) to monitor and control the pre-launch and launch operations. Within SCCS, the Launch Control System (LCS) is designed to allow console engineers to control and monitor the status of the launch and flight hardware, as well as issue commands to ground control systems and launch vehicles. The display software of the LCS is responsible for visualizing the various data that can be received from the hardware and software components of the LCS. Since this system is providing critical information to engineers in the firing room, the visualization of data across the system must be easy to understand, but also reliable and accurate.

Software↗
DOE OSTI2020

FINAL TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY STUDY ON THE APPLICATION OF A HEAT INTEGRATED POST-COMBUSTION CO2 CAPTURE SYSTEM WITH HITACHI ADVANCED SOLVENT INTO EXISTING COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT

This report contains the results of a techno-economic assessment (TEA) conducted of a heat integrated post-combustion CO2 capture process with Hitachi advanced solvent for retrofit into an existing coal-fired power plant (but treated as greenfield plant on cost analysis). The process has been developed by the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy (UK CAER). EPRI was chiefly responsible for this analysis, with significant input from WorleyParsons, Hitachi Power Systems America (Hitachi) and UK CAER. The project also involves the design, fabrication, installation, testing, and analyses of a slipstream facility located at L&GE-KU’s E.W. Brown Generating Station to demonstrate the UK CAER carbon capture system that could utilize heat integration with the main power plant. The design, start-up, and baseline of the pilot system was performed with a generic 30 wt% MEA solvent to obtain data for direct comparison with the DOE/NETL Reference Case followed by testing Hitachi’s proprietary solvent H3-1. In this techno-economic analysis, two cases utilizing the UK CAER process are compared, using different approach temperatures and solvent, against the DOE/NETL Reference Case (Case 10). The results are shown comparing the energy demand for post-combustion CO2 capture and the net higher heating value (HHV) efficiency of the power plant integrated with the post-combustion capture (PCC) plant. A levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) assessment was performed showing the costs of the options presented in the study. The key factors contributing to the reduction of LCOE were identified as CO2 partial pressure increase at the flue gas inlet, thermal integration of the process, and performance of the Hitachi H3-1 solvent. Recent UK CAER process pilot-scale testing data and process simualtion data showed that the packing heights of absorber and stripper columns were significantly oversized in the prelimanary TEA (Task 2 of this project) and thus updated in this final TEA for the H3-1 case only. In addition, the solvent make-up cost for H3-1 was updated based on lattest test results. Finally, a heat integration with the main power plant was applied in this final TEA to increase overall energy effciency for both the MEA and H3-1 cases. Additonal reductions in capital and operational costs are expected but not taken into account here. Shorter columns result in reduced pressure drops, smaller blower head and pump hydraulic head requirements. An increase in overall energy efficiency resuls in a decreased size of the power plant, the CCS and a reduced parasitic steam requirement to the CCS. The net efficiency of the UK CAER integrated PC power plant with CO2 capture changes from 26.2% for the Reference Case 10 plant in 2010 revised DOE/NETL baseline report to 27.6% for the MEA options considered, and 29.1% for the options utilizing the Hitachi advanced solvent. The UK CAER Process + Hitachi case also produces an extra 30.9 MW of generation compared to the UK CAER Process + MEA case and total 60.9 MW more than DOE Case 10. LCOE ($/MWh) values are $172.08/MWh for the MEA option and $157.65/MWh for the Hitachi H3-1 solvent cases considered in comparison to $189.59/MWh in January 2012 dollar for the Reference Case 10. The UK CAER CCS process with MEA case lowers energy consumption for CO2 capture to 1340 Btu/lb-CO2 captured as compared to 1540 Btu/lb-CO2 in the Reference Case 10. The UK CAER CCS process with H3-1 case further lowers energy consumption for CO2 capture to 973 Btu/lb-CO2 captured, for an advantage of 36.8% less energy consumption than Case 10. The study also shows 38.1% less heat rejection associated with the carbon capture system from 3398 MBtu/hr (Case 10) to 2104 MBtu/hr for the UK CAER + MEA system. Heat rejection is reduced to 2464 MBtu/hr in the UK CAER + H3-1 case, for a 27.5 % decrease compared to Case 10. Modeling outputs show that in the UK CAER process, the cooling water that is 2-5°C cooler than conventional cooling tower water can be achieved for ambient conditions common to the midwest and other regions. The results from the techno-economic assessment show that the proposed technology can be investigated further as a viable alternative to conventional CO2 capture technology. The evaluation also shows the effect of the critical parameters on the LCOE, with the main variables being the approach temperature and CO2 partial pressure increase at the flue gas inlet. A summary of the key advantages of the UK CAER Process + H3-1 case for LCOE and other economic factors compared to the DOE Case 10 is as follows: • A lower variable operating cost by $1.56/MWh ($1.08MWh less than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 11.7% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower COE by $25.32MWh ($13.94/MWh lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 16.9% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower LCOE by $31.94/MWh ($17.51/MWh lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 16.9% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower cost of CO2 captured by $18.65/tonne CO2 ($9.44/tonne CO2 lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 30.4% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10 • A lower cost of CO2 avoided by $34.95/tonne CO2 ($18.53 tonne CO2 lower than the UK CAER Process + MEA Case), a 38.7% reduction compared to the DOE Case 10

Bhown, Abhoyjit S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variable wildfire impacts on the seasonal water temperatures of western US streams: A retrospective study

Recent increases in the burn area and severity of wildfires in the western US have raised concerns about the impact on stream water temperature–a key determinant of cold-water fish habitats. However, the effect on seasonal water temperatures of concern, including winter and summer, are not fully understood. In this study, we assessed the impact of wildfire burns at Boulder Creek (Oregon), Elk Creek (Oregon), and Gibbon River (Wyoming) watersheds on the downstream winter and summer water temperatures for the first three post-fire years. To obtain results independent of the choice of the analytical method, we evaluated the consequence of each burn using three different statistical approaches that utilize local water temperature data. Our results from the three approaches indicated that the response of water temperatures to wildfire burns varied across seasons and sites. Wildfire burns were associated with a median increase of up to 0.56°C (Standard Error; S.E. < 0.23°C) in the summer mean water temperatures (MWT) and 62 degree-day Celsius (DDC; S.E. < 20.7 DDC) in the summer accumulated degree days (ADD) for the three subsequent years across studied stream sites. Interestingly, these burns also corresponded to a median decrease of up to 0.49°C (S.E. < 0.45°C) in the winter MWT and 39 DDC (S.E. < 40.5 DDC) in the winter ADD for the same period across sites. Wildfire effects on the downstream water temperatures diminished with increasing site distance from the burn perimeter. Our analyses demonstrated that analytical methods that utilize local watershed data could be applied to evaluate fire effects on downstream water temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Carbon Flux Response to Atmospheric Aridity and Water Storage Deficit During the 2015–2016 El Niño Compromised Carbon Balance Recovery in Tropical South America

During the 2015–2016 El Niño, the Amazon basin released almost one gigaton of carbon (GtC) into the atmosphere due to extreme temperatures and drought. The link between the drought impact and recovery of the total carbon pools and its biogeochemical drivers is still unknown. With satellite-constrained net carbon exchange and its component fluxes including gross primary production and fire emissions, we show that the total carbon loss caused by the 2015–2016 El Niño had not recovered by the end of 2018. Forest ecosystems over the Northeastern (NE) Amazon suffered a cumulative total carbon loss of ~0.6 GtC through December 2018, driven primarily by a suppression of photosynthesis whereas southeastern savannah carbon loss was driven in part by fire. We attribute the slow recovery to the unexpected large carbon loss caused by the severe atmospheric aridity coupled with a water storage deficit during drought. We show the attenuation of carbon uptake is three times higher than expected from the pre-drought sensitivity to atmospheric aridity and ground water supply. Our study fills an important knowledge gap in our understanding of the unexpectedly enhanced response of carbon fluxes to atmospheric aridity and water storage deficit and its impact on regional post-drought recovery as a function of the vegetation types and climate perturbations. Our results suggest that the disproportionate impact of water supply and demand could compromise resiliency of the Amazonian carbon balance to future increases in extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Multiple Autonomous Discrete Event Controllers for Constellations

The Multiple Autonomous Discrete Event Controllers for Constellations (MADECC) project is an effort within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center's (NASA/GSFC) Information Systems Division to develop autonomous positioning and attitude control for constellation satellites. It will be accomplished using traditional control theory and advanced coordination algorithms developed by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL). This capability will be demonstrated in the discrete event control test-bed located at JHU/APL. This project will be modeled for the Leonardo constellation mission, but is intended to be adaptable to any constellation mission. To develop a common software architecture. the controllers will only model very high-level responses. For instance, after determining that a maneuver must be made. the MADECC system will output B (Delta)V (velocity change) value. Lower level systems must then decide which thrusters to fire and for how long to achieve that (Delta)V.

Esposito, Timothy C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Does the vestibular system contribute to head direction cell activity in the rat?

Head direction cells (HDC) located in several regions of the brain, including the anterior dorsal nucleus of the thalamus (ADN), postsubiculum (PoS), and lateral mammillary nuclei (LMN), provide the neural substrate for the determination of head direction. Although activity of HDC is influenced by various sensory signals and internally generated cues, lesion studies and some anatomical and physiological evidence suggest that vestibular inputs are critical for the maintenance of directional sensitivity of these cells. However, vestibular inputs must be transformed considerably in order to signal head direction, and the neuronal circuitry that accomplishes this signal processing has not been fully established. Furthermore, it is unclear why the removal of vestibular inputs abolishes the directional sensitivity of HDC, as visual and other sensory inputs and motor feedback signals strongly affect the firing of these neurons and would be expected to maintain their directional-related activity. Further physiological studies will be required to establish the role of vestibular system in producing HDC responses, and anatomical studies are needed to determine the neural circuitry that mediates vestibular influences on determination of head direction.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS1999

Functional organization of primate translational vestibulo-ocular reflexes and effects of unilateral labyrinthectomy

Translational vestibulo-ocular reflexes (trVORs) are characterized by distinct spatio-temporal properties and sensitivities that are proportional to the inverse of viewing distance. Anodal (inhibitory) labyrinthine stimulation (100 microA, < 2 s) during motion decreased the high-pass filtered dynamics, as well as horizontal trVOR sensitivity and its dependence on viewing distance. Cathodal (excitatory) currents had opposite effects. Translational VORs were also affected after unilateral labyrinthectomy. Animals lost their ability to modulate trVOR sensitivity as a function of viewing distance acutely after the lesion. These deficits partially recovered over time, albeit a significant reduction in trVOR sensitivity as a function of viewing distance remained in compensated animals. During fore-aft motion, the effects of unilateral labyrinthectomy were more dramatic. Both acute and compensated animals permanently lost their ability to modulate fore-aft trVOR responses as a function of target eccentricity. These results suggest that (1) the dynamics and viewing distance-dependent properties of the trVORs are very sensitive to changes in the resting firing rate of vestibular afferents and, consequently, vestibular nuclei neurons; (2) the most irregularly firing primary otolith afferents that are most sensitive to labyrinthine electrical stimulation might contribute to reflex dynamics and sensitivity; (3) inputs from both labyrinths are necessary for the generation of the translational VORs.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2019

Importance of Tree- and Species-Level Interactions With Wildfire, Climate, and Soils in Interior Alaska: Implications for Forest Change Under A Warming Climate

The boreal zone of Alaska is dominated by interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and soils. These interactions are likely to change in the future through increasing permafrost thaw, more frequent and intense wildfires, and vegetation change from drought and competition. We utilize an individual tree-based vegetation model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to estimate current and future forest conditions across sites within interior Alaska. We updated UVAFME for application within interior Alaska, including improved simulation of permafrost dynamics, litter decay, nutrient dynamics, fire mortality, and post-fire regrowth. Following these updates, UVAFME output on species-specific biomass and stem density was comparable to inventory measurements at various forest types within interior Alaska. We then simulated forest response to climate change at specific inventory locations and across the Tanana Valley River Basin on a 2 × 2 km2 grid. We derived projected temperature and precipitation from a five-model average taken from the CMIP5 archive under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results suggest that climate change and the concomitant impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in overall decreases in biomass (particularly for spruce (Picea spp.)) within the interior Tanana Valley, despite increases in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) biomass, and a resulting shift towards higher deciduous fraction. Simulation results also predict increases in biomass at cold, wet locations and at high elevations, and decreases in biomass in dry locations, under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. These simulations demonstrate that a highly detailed, species interactive model can be used across a large region within Alaska to investigate interactions between vegetation, climate, wildfire, and permafrost. The vegetation changes predicted here have the capacity to feed back to broader scale climate-forest interactions in the North American boreal forest, a region which contributes significantly to the global carbon and energy budgets.

forest modeling↗