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At least 505 records · Page 28

How much information on precipitation is contained in satellite infrared imagery?

Satellite infrared (IR) brightness temperature providing information on the characteristics of cloud tops is one of the primary input data used for estimating precipitation from satellites. Thus, the natural questions to ask are: Does IR imagery contain more information about precipitation in some regions more than others? What are the factors that lead to such differences? Should we expect the amount of information provided by IR imagery to change with respect to temporal or spatial aggregation? Comprehensive analysis of the accuracy of satellite-based precipitation estimates obtained from any given algorithm may provide qualitative answers to the above questions. However, such an approach only offers conclusions within the limited context of the algorithm used to obtain precipitation estimates; that is, patterns caused by the inherent information content of IR imagery are inextricable from those induced by assumptions embedded in the precipitation estimation algorithm. Here, we address the abovementioned questions from a different perspective using an information-theoretic measure, free of structural assumptions and general to a wide range of relationships, to characterize the average and seasonal dependence between IR imagery provided by satellite sensors in the spectral range (10.7–11.5 μm) and precipitation rates in the contiguous United States (CONUS) across distinct temporal and spatial scales. We analyze a total of more than 1.3 billion pairs of IR and precipitation observations over CONUS, and we observe interesting patterns. First, we show that there is a strong inverse relationship (ρ = - 0.73) between the information content of IR data and the number of no-rain observations; however, its robustness varies regionally and seasonally with less significant correlation during the warm season. Second, we demonstrate that the intuitive relationship of increasing dependence between IR and precipitation as a result of temporal or spatial aggregation exhibits a diminishing returns behavior. For instance, temporal aggregation from 1 to 3 h increases the dependence approximately 7 times as much as temporal aggregation from 12 to 24 h. Furthermore, we quantitatively examine and re-confirm several statements previously reported in the literature such as the strong association between IR and precipitation in convective storms and the low association in orographic rainfall. Finally, we conclude by illustrating the potential of the analysis in diagnosis of operational algorithms for estimating precipitation from IR brightness temperature. The findings of this study pinpoint spatial domains and time scales at which IR is not an adequate proxy for estimating precipitation. Thus, they can potentially guide the development of operational algorithms that utilize satellite Infrared imagery for estimating, downscaling and data fusion of precipitation. Finally, the analysis presented here opens up the possibility of developing new methodologies for diagnosis of satellite-based precipitation estimation algorithms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multimodal super-resolution: discovering hidden physics and its application to fusion plasmas

Understanding complex physical systems often requires integrating data from multiple diagnostics, each with limited resolution or coverage. We present a machine learning framework that reconstructs synthetic high-temporal-resolution data for a target diagnostic using information from other diagnostics, without direct target measurements during the inference. This multimodal super-resolution technique improves diagnostic robustness and enables monitoring even in case of measurement failures or degradation. Applied to fusion plasmas, our method targets edge-localized modes (ELMs), which can damage plasma-facing materials. By reconstructing super-resolution Thomson Scattering data from complementary diagnostics, we uncover fine-scale plasma dynamics and validate the role of resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in ELM suppression through magnetic island formation. The approach provides new observation supporting the plasma profile flattening due to these islands. Our results demonstrate the framework’s ability to generate high-fidelity synthetic diagnostics, offering a powerful tool for ELM control development in future reactors like ITER. The approach is broadly transferable to other domains facing sparse, incomplete, or degraded diagnostic data, opening new avenues for discovery.

Jalalvand, Azarakhsh [Princeton Univ., NJ (United ↗

A charged particle transport approximation for thick and thin plasmas

In this work, we will construct a simple method to be utilized in the interpretation of the properties of a thin plasma from a study of the transport of charged particles through it. We do so by first demonstrating how charged particle fluxes encode local plasma information in their spectra for sufficiently thick plasmas and then propose how to extend that analysis to the thin plasma limit where the extensive geometry cannot be neglected through arguments from scale separation. We provide a numerical treatment of the transport problem and demonstrate that it is in good agreement with the approximation we present. Finally, we utilize both the numerical solution and our novel approximation to study the impact of the extensive scale of the plasma on the yield and flux normalized high-energy neutron spectra resulting from the upscattering of charged fuel ions. Using this analysis, we show that (after controlling for fusion yield) for the same uniform densities and temperatures, larger plasmas have higher magnitude but softer reaction-in-flight (RIF) neutron spectra relative to smaller plasmas. This is because larger plasmas retain more knocked-on suprathermal ions within their bulk and can downscatter them to lower average energies, while smaller plasmas allow a larger fraction of high energy particles to “range out” of the system prior to substantial downscattering or inducing an RIF reaction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A massively parallel and scalable multi-CPU material point method

Harnessing the power of modern multi-GPU architectures, we present a massively parallel simulation system based on the Material Point Method (MPM) for simulating physical behaviors of materials undergoing complex topological changes, self-collision, and large deformations. Our system makes three critical contributions. First, we introduce a new particle data structure that promotes coalesced memory access patterns on the GPU and eliminates the need for complex atomic operations on the memory hierarchy when writing particle data to the grid. Second, we propose a kernel fusion approach using a new Grid-to-Particles-to-Grid (G2P2G) scheme, which efficiently reduces GPU kernel launches, improves latency, and significantly reduces the amount of global memory needed to store particle data. Finally, we introduce optimized algorithmic designs that allow for efficient sparse grids in a shared memory context, enabling us to best utilize modern multi-GPU computational platforms for hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian computational patterns. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with extensive benchmarks, evaluations, and dynamic simulations with elastoplasticity, granular media, and fluid dynamics. In comparisons against an open-source and heavily optimized CPU-based MPM codebase [Fang et al. 2019] on an elastic sphere colliding scene with particle counts ranging from 5 to 40 million, our GPU MPM achieves over 100x per-time-step speedup on a workstation with an Intel 8086K CPU and a single Quadro P6000 GPU, exposing exciting possibilities for future MPM simulations in computer graphics and computational science. Moreover, compared to the state-of-the-art GPU MPM method [Hu et al. 2019a], we not only achieve 2x acceleration on a single GPU but our kernel fusion strategy and Array-of-Structs-of-Array (AoSoA) data structure design also generalizes to multi-GPU systems. Our multi-GPU MPM exhibits near-perfect weak and strong scaling with 4 GPUs, enabling performant and large-scale simulations on a 10243 grid with close to 100 million particles with less than 4 minutes per frame on a single 4-GPU workstation and 134 million particles with less than 1 minute per frame on an 8-GPU workstation.

Wang, Xinlei↗

Addressing key physics problems in high-energy-density plasmas with a novel kinetic simulation capability

Many important physical processes in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and dense Z-pinch (DZP) experiments require a kinetic (velocity-space-dependent) description. Conventional particle-in-cell (PIC) methods are poorly suited for high-energy-density (HED) plasmas, due to restrictive time-step constraints and the inability to conserve energy. In a previous LDRD (21-FS-048), we demonstrated that a fully implicit PIC formulation overcomes these limitations: it conserves energy even when coupled with Coulomb collision models and can be solved efficiently with large grid cells and large time steps. Thus, it is feasible to use this method to study kinetic effects in ICF and DZP plasmas on hydro-like time and spatial scales. In this follow-on LDRD, we advanced this methodology into a high-fidelity tool for production-scale simulations and used it to answer key questions relevant to ICF and DZP experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Direct measurement of the electron turbulence-broadening edge transport barrier to facilitate core–edge integration in tokamak fusion plasmas

Abstract The integration of a high-performance core and a dissipative divertor, or the so-called ‘core–edge integration,’ has been widely identified as a critical gap in the design of future fusion reactors. In this letter, we report, for the first time, direct experimental evidence of electron turbulence at the DIII-D H-mode pedestal that correlates with the broadening of the pedestal and thus facilitates core–edge integration. In agreement with gyrokinetic simulations, this electron turbulence is enhanced by high η e ( η e = L n / L T e , where L n is the density scale length and L T e is the electron temperature scale length), which is due to a strong shift between the density and temperature pedestal profiles associated with a closed divertor. The modeled turbulence drives significant heat transport with a lower pressure gradient that may broaden the pedestal to a greater degree than the empirical and theoretically predicted pedestal width scalings. Such a wide pedestal, coupled with a closed divertor, enables us to achieve a good core–edge scenario that integrates a high-temperature low-collisionality pedestal (pedestal top temperature T e,ped > 0.8 keV and a pedestal top collisionality ν * ped < 1) under detached divertor conditions. This paves a new path toward solving the core–edge integration issue in future fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Single Gaussian process method for arbitrary tokamak regimes with a statistical analysis

Abstract Gaussian process regression is a Bayesian method for inferring profiles based on input data. The technique is increasing in popularity in the fusion community due to its many advantages over traditional fitting techniques including intrinsic uncertainty quantification and robustness to over-fitting. This work investigates the use of a new method, the change-point method, for handling the varying length scales found in different tokamak regimes. The use of the Student’s t-distribution for the Bayesian likelihood probability is also investigated and shown to be advantageous in providing good fits in profiles with many outliers. To compare different methods, synthetic data generated from analytic profiles is used to create a database enabling a quantitative statistical comparison of which methods perform the best. Using a full Bayesian approach with the change-point method, Matérn kernel for the prior probability, and Student’s t-distribution for the likelihood is shown to give the best results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simulation of Alfvénic avalanche onset in NSTX

In some tokamak discharges, a number of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs) have been observed to cause a large-scale collapse of the high energy particle distribution, a phenomenon referred to as an avalanche. We examine the necessary conditions for an avalanche using the available experimental information from NSTX on the equilibrium and mode properties for two cases, one with a measurable but benign AE activity and one with an AE activity leading up to an avalanche. To produce an avalanche, the modes present in the discharge must possess resonances that can overlap with a modest increase in instability magnitude, providing a path to global particle stochastic motion. In this paper, we find that the modes present in the avalanche-free discharge do not provide such a path even at a very large amplitude. During the discharge which subsequently produces an avalanche, the high energy population is growing and the Alfvén frequency is dropping due to increasing density, and we find that both these changes, producing a small increased drive or an increased resonance width for the Alfvén modes, can lead in this case to uncontrolled mode growth and large-scale beam particle loss.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

ETG turbulence in a tokamak pedestal

This paper explores the fundamental characteristics of electron-temperature-gradient (ETG)-driven turbulence in the tokamak pedestal. The extreme gradients in the pedestal produce linear instabilities and nonlinear turbulence that are distinct from the corresponding ETG phenomenology in the core plasma. The linear system exhibits multiple (greater than ten) unstable eigenmodes at each perpendicular wave vector, representing different toroidal and slab branches of the ETG instability. Proper orthogonal decomposition of the nonlinear fluctuations reveals no clear one-to-one correspondence between the linear and nonlinear modes for most wave vectors. Moreover, nonlinear frequencies deviate strongly from those of the linear instabilities, with spectra peaking at positive frequencies, which is opposite the sign of the ETG instability. The picture that emerges is one in which the linear properties are preserved only in a narrow range of k-space. Outside this range, nonlinear processes produce strong deviations from both the linear frequencies and eigenmode structures. This is interpreted in the context of critical balance, which enforces alignment between the parallel scales and fluctuation frequencies. We also investigate the nonlinear saturation processes. We observe a direct energy cascade from the injection scale to smaller scales in both perpendicular directions. However, in the bi-normal direction, there is also nonlocal inverse energy transfer to larger scales. Neither streamers nor zonal flows dominate the saturation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

High-pressure CO 2 dissociation with nanosecond pulsed discharges

Herein we investigate the conversion of CO 2 into CO and O 2 with nanosecond repetitively pulsed (NRP) discharges in a high-pressure batch reactor. Stable discharges are obtained at up to 12 bar. By-products are measured with gas chromatography. The energy efficiency is determined for a range of processing times, pulse energy, and fill pressures. It is only weakly sensitive to the plasma operating parameters, i.e the extent of CO 2 conversion is almost linearly-dependent on the specific energy invested. A conversion rate as high as 14% is achieved with an energy efficiency of 23%. For long processing times, saturation in the yield and a drop in efficiency are observed, due to the increasing role of three-body recombination reactions, as described by zero-dimensional detailed kinetic modeling. The modeling reveals the presence of three-stage kinetics between NRP pulses, controlled by electron-impact CO 2 dissociation, vibrational relaxation, and neutral elementary kinetics. Transport effects are shown to be important for CO 2 conversion at high pressures. For fill pressures beyond 10 bar, CO 2 may locally transit into supercritical states. The supercritical plasma kinetics may bypass atomic oxygen pathways and directly convert CO 2 into O 2 . This work provides a detailed analysis of plasma-based high-pressure CO 2 conversion, which is of great relevance to future large-scale sustainable carbon capture, utilization, and storage.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Resolving temperature limitation on spring productivity in an evergreen conifer forest using a model–data fusion framework

Abstract. The flow of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems and the response to climate are critical but highly uncertain processes in the global carbon cycle. However, with a rapidly expanding array of in situ and satellite data, there is an opportunity to improve our mechanistic understanding of the carbon (C) cycle's response to land use and climate change. Uncertainty in temperature limitation on productivity poses a significant challenge to predicting the response of ecosystem carbon fluxes to a changing climate. Here we diagnose and quantitatively resolve environmental limitations on the growing-season onset of gross primary production (GPP) using nearly 2 decades of meteorological and C flux data (2000–2018) at a subalpine evergreen forest in Colorado, USA. We implement the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) model–data fusion network to resolve the temperature sensitivity of spring GPP. To capture a GPP temperature limitation – a critical component of the integrated sensitivity of GPP to temperature – we introduced a cold-temperature scaling function in CARDAMOM to regulate photosynthetic productivity. We found that GPP was gradually inhibited at temperatures below 6.0 ∘C (±2.6 ∘C) and completely inhibited below −7.1 ∘C (±1.1 ∘C). The addition of this scaling factor improved the model's ability to replicate spring GPP at interannual and decadal timescales (r=0.88), relative to the nominal CARDAMOM configuration (r=0.47), and improved spring GPP model predictability outside of the data assimilation training period (r=0.88). While cold-temperature limitation has an important influence on spring GPP, it does not have a significant impact on integrated growing-season GPP, revealing that other environmental controls, such as precipitation, play a more important role in annual productivity. This study highlights growing-season onset temperature as a key limiting factor for spring growth in winter-dormant evergreen forests, which is critical in understanding future responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regulation of Alfvén Eigenmodes by Microturbulence in Fusion Plasmas

Global gyrokinetic simulations of mesoscale reversed shear Alfven eigenmodes (RSAE) excited by energetic particles (EP) in fusion plasmas find that RSAE amplitude and EP transport are much higher than experimental levels at nonlinear saturation, but quickly diminish to very low levels after the saturation when background microturbulence is artificially suppressed. In contrast, in simulations coupling micro-meso scales, the RSAE amplitude and EP transport decrease drastically at the initial saturation but later increases to the experimental levels in the quasi-steady state with bursty dynamics due to regulation by thermal ion temperature gradient (ITG) microturbulence. The quasi-steady state EP transport is larger for a stronger microturbulence. Here, the RSAE amplitude in the quasi-steady state ITG-RSAE turbulence from gyrokinetic simulations, for the first time, agrees very well with experimental measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Containers for Massive Ensemble of I/O Bound Hierarchical Coupled Simulations

We present our experience using containers to scale up a massive ensemble of coupled I/O bound workloads on the NERSC Cori supercomputer. We describe the design of a hierarchical simulation structure using the Integrated Plasma Simulator (IPS) that enables the flexible execution of coupled simulations at the system, node, and core level using the same coupling abstraction and API. The hierarchical design allows for the node-level execution to be efficiently executed using containers while not impacting the structure of the simulation at the system level. We demonstrate the viability of the approach by presenting experimental results from applications in coupled fusion plasma simulations that illustrate the performance impact of using containers to deploy the node-level workloads, in conjunction with the user mountable XFS file systems to ameliorate the load on the Lustre parallel file system. We also present results from production runs showing the ability of the ensemble simulations to scale to hundreds of Cori Haswell nodes, with little or no overhead.

Elwasif, Wael↗

A glimpse of stars the size of dust particles

The Nuclear Imaging System (NIS) is an important diagnostic tool used to study nuclear fusion implosions at a research facility in California. There a capsule the size of a flea is compressed until it reaches the size of a speck of dust. As the capsule collapses on itself and ignites under extreme temperature and pressure, NIS detects particles emitted from that process at a scale that would correspond to watching a 32-inch TV screen from 100 miles away. My work involves taking snapshots of one of the most minuscule, fleeting and amazing experiments on Earth in order to ensure the safety and reliability of the US nuclear stockpile and get closer to developing a new form of clean energy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Integrated edge-to-exascale workflow for real-time steering in neutron scattering experiments

We introduce a computational framework that integrates artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and high-performance computing to enable real-time steering of neutron scattering experiments using an edge-to-exascale workflow. Focusing on time-of-flight neutron event data at the Spallation Neutron Source, our approach combines temporal processing of four-dimensional neutron event data with predictive modeling for multidimensional crystallography. At the core of this workflow is the Temporal Fusion Transformer model, which provides voxel-level precision in predicting 3D neutron scattering patterns. The system incorporates edge computing for rapid data preprocessing and exascale computing via the Frontier supercomputer for large-scale AI model training, enabling adaptive, data-driven decisions during experiments. This framework optimizes neutron beam time, improves experimental accuracy, and lays the foundation for automation in neutron scattering. Although real-time experiment steering is still in the proof-of-concept stage, the demonstrated potential of this system offers a substantial reduction in data processing time from hours to minutes via distributed training, and significant improvements in model accuracy, setting the stage for widespread adoption across neutron scattering facilities and more efficient exploration of complex material systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fuel convergence sensitivity in indirect drive implosions

In inertial confinement fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility, a spherical shell of deuterium–tritium fuel is imploded in an attempt to reach the conditions needed for fusion, self-heating, and eventual ignition. Since theory and simulations indicate that ignition efficacy in 1D improves with increasing imploded fuel convergence ratio, it is useful to understand the sensitivity of the scale-invariant fuel convergence on all measurable or inferable 1D parameters. In this paper, we develop a simple isobaric and isentropic compression scaling model incorporating sensitivity to the in-flight adiabat inferred from shock strengths, to measured implosion velocity, and to known initial ablator and fuel aspect ratio and mass ratio. The model is first benchmarked to 1D implosion simulations spanning a variety of relevant implosion designs. We then use the model to compare compressibility trends across all existing indirect-drive layered implosion data from the facility spanning three ablators [CH, carbon (C), and Be], for which in-flight fuel adiabats varied from 1.6 to 5 by varying the number of drive shocks from 2 to 4, peak implosion velocities varied by 1.4×, capsule radii by 50%, and initial fuel aspect ratios by 1.4×. We find that the strength of the first shock is the dominant contributor setting the maximum fuel convergence. We also observe additional sensitivities to successive shock strengths and fuel aspect ratios that improve the agreement between the expected and measured compression for carbon and Be designs with adiabats above 3. A principal finding is that the adiabat 2.5 C-shell designs exhibit less convergence than CH-shell designs of similar inferred in-flight adiabat.

Landen, O. L. (ORCID:0000000214998217)↗

Exact wave solver for nonparaxial laser beam propagation

Simulations of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments require high-fidelity models for laser beam propagation in a nonuniform plasma with varying index of refraction. We describe a new numerical wave solver that is applicable to centimeter-scale length plasmas encountered in indirect drive ICF applications. The one-way Helmholtz equation (OHE) generalizes the time-harmonic paraxial wave equation to large angles. Here, we present a methodology to numerically evaluate the exact solution to the OHE. This solution is computed by analytically advancing eigenfunctions of the one-way Helmholtz operator along a propagation direction and is applicable to any given index of a refraction profile. We compare our exact method with a commonly used approximate split-step technique for solving the OHE. As a test problem, we consider nonparaxial propagation of Gaussian and speckled beams in a plasma density channel with internal reflection. We find that the split-step approach incurs significant errors compared to the exact solution computed using the novel algorithm.

Belyaev, Mikhail A. (ORCID:0000000224908887)↗

Similarity for downscaled kinetic simulations of electrostatic plasmas: Reconciling the large system size with small Debye length

A simple similarity has been proposed for kinetic (e.g., particle-in-cell) simulations of plasma transport that can effectively address the long-standing challenge of reconciling the tiny Debye length with the vast system size. This applies to both transport in unmagnetized plasma and parallel transport in magnetized plasmas, where the characteristics length scales are given by the Debye length, collisional mean free paths, and the system or gradient lengths. The controlled scaled variables are the configuration space, x/L, and an artificial Coulomb Logarithm, L ln Λ, for collisions, while the scaled time, t/L, and electric field, LE, are automatic outcomes. The similarity properties are examined, demonstrating that the macroscopic transport physics is preserved through a similarity transformation while keeping the microscopic physics at its original scale of Debye length. To showcase the utility of this approach, two examples of 1D plasma transport problems were simulated using the VPIC code: the plasma thermal quench in tokamaks [Li et al., Nuclear Fusion 63, 066030 (2023)] and the plasma sheath in the high-recycling regime [Li et al., Physics of Plasmas 30, 063505 (2023)].

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗