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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Why are we still using 3D masses for cluster cosmology?

ABSTRACT The abundance of clusters of galaxies is highly sensitive to the late-time evolution of the matter distribution, since clusters form at the highest density peaks. However, the 3D cluster mass cannot be inferred without deprojecting the observations, introducing model-dependent biases and uncertainties due to the mismatch between the assumed and the true cluster density profile and the neglected matter along the sightline. Since projected aperture masses can be measured directly in simulations and observationally through weak lensing, we argue that they are better suited for cluster cosmology. Using the Mira–Titan suite of gravity-only simulations, we show that aperture masses correlate strongly with 3D halo masses, albeit with large intrinsic scatter due to the varying matter distribution along the sightline. Nonetheless, aperture masses can be measured ≈2–3 times more precisely from observations, since they do not require assumptions about the density profile and are only affected by the shape noise in the weak lensing measurements. We emulate the cosmology dependence of the aperture mass function directly with a Gaussian process. Comparing the cosmology sensitivity of the aperture mass function and the 3D halo mass function for a fixed survey solid angle and redshift interval, we find the aperture mass sensitivity is higher for Ωm and $w_a$, similar for σ8, ns, and $w_0$, and slightly lower for h. With a carefully calibrated aperture mass function emulator, cluster cosmology analyses can use cluster aperture masses directly, reducing the sensitivity to model-dependent mass calibration biases and uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Star–Galaxy Image Separation with Computationally Efficient Gaussian Process Classification

Abstract We introduce a novel method for discerning optical telescope images of stars from those of galaxies using Gaussian processes (GPs). Although applications of GPs often struggle in high-dimensional data modalities such as optical image classification, we show that a low-dimensional embedding of images into a metric space defined by the principal components of the data suffices to produce high-quality predictions from real large-scale survey data. We develop a novel method of GP classification hyperparameter training that scales approximately linearly in the number of image observations, which allows for application of GP models to large-size Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program data. In our experiments, we evaluate the performance of a principal component analysis embedded GP predictive model against other machine-learning algorithms, including a convolutional neural network and an image photometric morphology discriminator. Our analysis shows that our methods compare favorably with current methods in optical image classification while producing posterior distributions from the GP regression that can be used to quantify object classification uncertainty. We further describe how classification uncertainty can be used to efficiently parse large-scale survey imaging data to produce high-confidence object catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

ML-based calibration and control of the GlueX Central Drift Chamber

The GlueX Central Drift Chamber (CDC) in Hall D at Jefferson Lab, used for detecting and tracking charged particles, is calibrated and controlled during data taking using a Gaussian process. The system dynamically adjusts the high voltage applied to the anode wires inside the chamber in response to changing environmental and experimental conditions such that the gain is stabilized. Control policies have been established to manage the CDC's behavior. These policies are activated when the model's uncertainty exceeds a configurable threshold or during human-initiated tests during normal production running. Finally, we demonstrate the system reduces the time detector experts dedicate to calibration of the data offline, leading to a marked decrease in computing resource usage without compromising detector performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward Accelerating Discovery via Physics-Driven and Interactive Multifidelity Bayesian Optimization

Both computational and experimental material discovery bring forth the challenge of exploring multidimensional and often nondifferentiable parameter spaces, such as phase diagrams of Hamiltonians with multiple interactions, composition spaces of combinatorial libraries, processing spaces, and molecular embedding spaces. Often these systems are expensive or time consuming to evaluate a single instance, and hence classical approaches based on exhaustive grid or random search are too data intensive. This resulted in strong interest toward active learning methods such as Bayesian optimization (BO) where the adaptive exploration occurs based on human learning (discovery) objective. However, classical BO is based on a predefined optimization target, and policies balancing exploration and exploitation are purely data driven. In practical settings, the domain expert can pose prior knowledge of the system in the form of partially known physics laws and exploration policies often vary during the experiment. Here, we propose an interactive workflow building on multifidelity BO (MFBO), starting with classical (data-driven) MFBO, then expand to a proposed structured (physics-driven) structured MFBO (sMFBO), and finally extend it to allow human-in-the-loop interactive interactive MFBO (iMFBO) workflows for adaptive and domain expert aligned exploration. These approaches are demonstrated over highly nonsmooth multifidelity simulation data generated from an Ising model, considering spin–spin interaction as parameter space, lattice sizes as fidelity spaces, and the objective as maximizing heat capacity. Detailed analysis and comparison show the impact of physics knowledge injection and real-time human decisions for improved exploration with increased alignment to ground truth. Here, the associated notebooks allow to reproduce the reported analyses and apply them to other systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: V. Minimal ADC Corrections for Planck LFI

We describe the correction procedure for Analog-to-Digital Converter (ADC) differential non-linearities (DNL) adopted in the Bayesian end-to-end BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. This method is nearly identical to that developed for the official Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) Data Processing Center (DPC) analysis, and relies on the binned rms noise profile of each detector data stream. However, rather than building the correction profile directly from the raw rms profile, we first fit a Gaussian to each significant ADC-induced rms decrement, and then derive the corresponding correction model from this smooth model. The main advantage of this approach is that only samples which are significantly affected by ADC DNLs are corrected, as opposed to the DPC approach in which the correction is applied to all samples, filtering out signals not associated with ADC DNLs. The new corrections are only applied to data for which there is a clear detection of the non-linearities, and for which they perform at least comparably with the DPC corrections. Out of a total of 88 LFI data streams (sky and reference load for each of the 44 detectors) we apply the new minimal ADC corrections in 25 cases, and maintain the DPC corrections in 8 cases. All these corrections are applied to 44 or 70 GHz channels, while, as in previous analyses, none of the 30 GHz ADCs show significant evidence of non-linearity. By comparing the BEYONDPLANCK and DPC ADC correction methods, we estimate that the residual ADC uncertainty is about two orders of magnitude below the total noise of both the 44 and 70 GHz channels, and their impact on current cosmological parameter estimation is small. However, we also show that non-idealities in the ADC corrections can generate sharp stripes in the final frequency maps, and these could be important for future joint analyses with the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI), Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), or other datasets. We therefore conclude that, although the existing corrections are adequate for LFI-based cosmological parameter analysis, further work on LFI ADC corrections is still warranted.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Material Characterization and Simultaneous Model Calibration for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations is a credible material model. Our ultimate vision is to interlace material characterization and model calibration in a real-time feedback loop, where the current model calibration results will drive the experiment to load regimes that add the most useful information to reduce parameter uncertainty. The current work investigated one key step to this Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) paradigm, using a finite load-path tree to incorporate history/path dependency of nonlinear material models into a network of surrogate models that replace computationally-expensive finite-element analyses. Our reference simulation was an elastoplastic material point subject to biaxial deformation with a Hill anisotropic yield criterion. Training data was generated using either a space-filling or adaptive sampling method, and surrogates were built using either Gaussian process or polynomial chaos expansion methods. Surrogate error was evaluated to be on the order of 10 ⁻5 and 10 ⁻3 percent for the space-filling and adaptive sampling training data, respectively. Direct Bayesian inference was performed with the surrogate network and with the reference material point simulator, and results agreed to within 3 significant figures for the mean parameter values, with a reduction in computational cost over 5 orders of magnitude. These results bought down risk regarding the surrogate network and facilitated a successful FY22-24 full LDRD proposal to research and develop the complete ICC paradigm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D reconstruction and neural rendering for adversarial machine learning

While evasion attacks on computer vision systems have been widely studied, creating attacks that remain effective under significant changes in viewpoint continues to be challenging. Traditional approaches often rely on affine transformations of images, but these approaches degrade at larger perspective shifts and often produce unrealistic or ineffective perturbations. Recent methods use differentiable renderers to improve viewpoint robustness, but they typically depend on manually constructed 3D models. We introduce a semi-automated pipeline that generates physically printable and perspective-invariant adversarial patches using only a small set of 2D images. Our method integrates 3D reconstruction, neural rendering, adversarial patch optimization, and an object detection victim model into a unified workflow. We use 2D Gaussian Splatting for high fidelity mesh reconstruction and FlexPara for surface parameterization that produces texture maps suitable for patch editing. Together, these components form a fully differentiable pipeline in PyTorch3D that links texture modification to model outputs, enabling efficient optimization of patches that remain effective across many viewpoints. The complete process, from image capture to patch printing and physical evaluation, can be completed within a few hours. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting patches through attacks on the YOLOv8 object detection model and discuss remaining challenges and opportunities for improving robustness and scalability.

Singhvi, Vivaan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000586288221)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-dependent saturation and physics-based nonlinear model of cross-beam energy transfer

The nonlinear physics of cross-beam energy transfer (CBET) for multi-speckled laser beams is examined using large-scale particle-in-cell simulations for a range of laser and plasma conditions relevant to indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. The time-dependent growth and saturation of CBET involve complex, nonlinear ion and electron dynamics, including ion trapping-induced enhancement and detuning, ion acoustic wave (IAW) nonlinearity, oblique forward stimulated Raman scattering (FSRS), and backward stimulated Brillouin scattering (BSBS) in a CBET-amplified seed beam. Ion-trapping-induced detuning of CBET is captured in the kinetic linear response by a new δf-Gaussian-mixture algorithm, enabling an accurate characterization of trapping-induced non-Maxwellian distributions. Ion trapping induces nonlinear processes, such as changes to the IAW dispersion and nonlinearities (e.g., bowing and self-focusing), which, together with pump depletion, FSRS, and BSBS, determine the time-dependent nature and level of CBET gain as the system approaches a steady state. Using VPIC simulations at intensities at and above the onset threshold for ion trapping and the insight from the time-dependent saturation analyses, we construct a nonlinear CBET model from local laser and plasma conditions that predicts the CBET gain and the energy deposition into the plasma. This model is intended to provide a more accurate, physics-based description of CBET saturation over a wide range of conditions encountered in ICF hohlraums compared with linear CBET gain models with ad hoc saturation clamps often used in laser ray-based methods in multi-physics codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

TEMImageNet training library and AtomSegNet deep-learning models for high-precision atom segmentation, localization, denoising, and deblurring of atomic-resolution images

Abstract Atom segmentation and localization, noise reduction and deblurring of atomic-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) images with high precision and robustness is a challenging task. Although several conventional algorithms, such has thresholding, edge detection and clustering, can achieve reasonable performance in some predefined sceneries, they tend to fail when interferences from the background are strong and unpredictable. Particularly, for atomic-resolution STEM images, so far there is no well-established algorithm that is robust enough to segment or detect all atomic columns when there is large thickness variation in a recorded image. Herein, we report the development of a training library and a deep learning method that can perform robust and precise atom segmentation, localization, denoising, and super-resolution processing of experimental images. Despite using simulated images as training datasets, the deep-learning model can self-adapt to experimental STEM images and shows outstanding performance in atom detection and localization in challenging contrast conditions and the precision consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art two-dimensional Gaussian fit method. Taking a step further, we have deployed our deep-learning models to a desktop app with a graphical user interface and the app is free and open-source. We have also built a TEM ImageNet project website for easy browsing and downloading of the training data.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management

The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.

Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗
DOE OSTI2021

Non-Gaussian photonic state engineering with the quantum frequency processor

Non-Gaussian quantum states of light are critical resources for optical quantum information processing, but methods to generate them efficiently remain challenging to implement. Here we introduce a generic approach for non-Gaussian state production from input states populating discrete frequency bins. Based on controllable unitary operations with a quantum frequency processor, followed by photon-number-resolved detection of ancilla modes, our method combines recent developments in both frequency-based quantum information and non-Gaussian state preparation. Leveraging and refining the K-function representation of quantum states in the coherent basis, we develop a theoretical model amenable to numerical optimization and, as specific examples, design quantum frequency processor circuits for the production of Schrödinger cat states, exploring the performance tradeoffs for several combinations of ancilla modes and circuit depth. Our scheme provides a valuable framework for producing complex quantum states in frequency bins, paving the way for single-spatial-mode, fiber-optic-compatible non-Gaussian resources.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-beam energy transfer in direct-drive ICF. II. Theory and simulation of mitigation through increased laser bandwidth

The response of the cross-beam energy transfer instability (CBET) to laser bandwidth is investigated through a combination of theory and simulation. Existing linear theory is generalized to treat broadband lasers, demonstrating that CBET is most effectively suppressed when the bandwidth exceeds the ion-acoustic wave (IAW) frequency. It is shown that for such bandwidths, reverse (seed to pump) transfer becomes possible, which reduces the net energy transfer rapidly as bandwidth is increased. The CBET gain exponent in this regime scales with bandwidth (Δω) as Δω−3 for Gaussian or Lorentzian laser spectra with different scalings possible for other spectra. Comparison of our theory with linearized fluid and particle-in-cell simulations, performed with the laser-plasma simulation environment (LPSE) and vector particle in cell (VPIC) codes, respectively, finds that the model is accurate in the absence of nonlinear processes. However, linear analysis also finds that the IAW energy density scales as Δω−1, implying that nonlinear effects may be more difficult to control than the CBET scaling would suggest. Indeed, nonlinear effects are found to be present in VPIC simulations with high-intensity lasers, despite minimal apparent CBET. Nonlinear processes in the VPIC cases include particle trapping, the two-ion wave decay, and ion wave self-focusing. In some high intensity VPIC cases, these effects lead to net energy transfer from seed to pump and increases to backscatter stimulated Brillouin scattering reflectivities. Finally, for a given bandwidth, we show that improved control of nonlinear processes can be achieved via smoothing by spectral dispersion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating cosmological inference with Gaussian processes and neural networks – an application to LSST Y1 weak lensing and galaxy clustering

ABSTRACT Studying the impact of systematic effects, optimizing survey strategies, assessing tensions between different probes and exploring synergies of different data sets require a large number of simulated likelihood analyses, each of which cost thousands of CPU hours. In this paper, we present a method to accelerate cosmological inference using emulators based on Gaussian process regression and neural networks. We iteratively acquire training samples in regions of high posterior probability which enables accurate emulation of data vectors even in high dimensional parameter spaces. We showcase the performance of our emulator with a simulated 3×2 point analysis of LSST-Y1 with realistic theoretical and systematics modelling. We show that our emulator leads to high-fidelity posterior contours, with an order of magnitude speed-up. Most importantly, the trained emulator can be re-used for extremely fast impact and optimization studies. We demonstrate this feature by studying baryonic physics effects in LSST-Y1 3×2 point analyses where each one of our MCMC runs takes approximately 5 min. This technique enables future cosmological analyses to map out the science return as a function of analysis choices and survey strategy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoding polymer self-dynamics using a two-step approach

The self-correlation function and corresponding self-intermediate scattering function in Fourier space are important quantities for describing the molecular motions of liquids. This work draws attention to a largely overlooked issue concerning the analysis of these space-time density-density correlation functions of polymers. Here, we show that the interpretation of non-Gaussian behavior of polymers is generally complicated by intrachain averaging of distinct self-dynamics of different segments. By the very nature of the mathematics involved, the averaging process not only conceals critical dynamical information, but also contributes to the observed non-Gaussian dynamics. To fully expose this issue and provide a thorough benchmark of polymer self-dynamics, we perform analyses of coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of linear and ring polymer melts as well as several theoretical models using a “two-step” approach, where interchain and intrachain averagings of segmental self-dynamics are separated. While past investigations primarily focused on the average behavior, our results indicate that a more nuanced approach to polymer self-dynamics is clearly required.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optical Transmission Spectroscopy of the Terrestrial Exoplanet LHS 3844b from 13 Ground-based Transit Observations

Atmospheric studies of spectroscopically accessible terrestrial exoplanets lay the groundwork for comparative planetology between these worlds and the solar system terrestrial planets. LHS 3844b is a highly irradiated terrestrial exoplanet (R = 1.303 ± 0.022R {sub ⊕}) orbiting a mid-M dwarf 15 parsecs away. Work based on near-infrared Spitzer phase curves ruled out atmospheres with surface pressures ≥10 bars on this planet. We present 13 transit observations of LHS 3844b taken with the Magellan Clay telescope and the LDSS3C multi-object spectrograph covering 620–1020 nm. We analyze each of the 13 data sets individually using a Gaussian process regression, and present both white and spectroscopic light curves. In the combined white light curve we achieve an rms precision of 65 ppm when binning to 10 minutes. The mean white light-curve value of (R {sub p}/R {sub s}){sup 2} is 0.4170 ± 0.0046%. To construct the transmission spectrum, we split the white light curves into 20 spectrophotometric bands, each spanning 20 nm, and compute the mean values of (R {sub p}/R {sub s}){sup 2} in each band. We compare the transmission spectrum to two sets of atmospheric models. We disfavor a clear, solar composition atmosphere (μ = 2.34) with surface pressures ≥0.1 bar to 5.2σ confidence. We disfavor a clear, H{sub 2}O steam atmosphere (μ = 18) with surface pressures ≥0.1 bar to low confidence (2.9σ). Our observed transmission spectrum favors a flat line. For solar composition atmospheres with surface pressures ≥1 bar we rule out clouds with cloud-top pressures of 0.1 bar (5.3σ), but we cannot address high-altitude clouds at lower pressures. Our results add further evidence that LHS 3844b is devoid of an atmosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗