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DOE OSTI2020

The acidity of atmospheric particles and clouds

Acidity, defined as pH, is a central component of aqueous chemistry. In the atmosphere, the acidity of condensed phases (aerosol particles, cloud water, and fog droplets) governs the phase partitioning of semivolatile gases such as HNO 3 , NH 3 , HCl, and organic acids and bases as well as chemical reaction rates. It has implications for the atmospheric lifetime of pollutants, deposition, and human health. Despite its fundamental role in atmospheric processes, only recently has this field seen a growth in the number of studies on particle acidity. Even with this growth, many fine-particle pH estimates must be based on thermodynamic model calculations since no operational techniques exist for direct measurements. Current information indicates acidic fine particles are ubiquitous, but observationally constrained pH estimates are limited in spatial and temporal coverage. Clouds and fogs are also generally acidic, but to a lesser degree than particles, and have a range of pH that is quite sensitive to anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides, as well as ambient ammonia. Historical measurements indicate that cloud and fog droplet pH has changed in recent decades in response to controls on anthropogenic emissions, while the limited trend data for aerosol particles indicate acidity may be relatively constant due to the semivolatile nature of the key acids and bases and buffering in particles. This paper reviews and synthesizes the current state of knowledge on the acidity of atmospheric condensed phases, specifically particles and cloud droplets. It includes recommendations for estimating acidity and pH, standard nomenclature, a synthesis of current pH estimates based on observations, and new model calculations on the local and global scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Highly Integrated Vehicle Ecosystem (HIVE): A Platform for Managing the Operations of On-Demand Vehicle Fleets

This paper introduces the Highly Integrated Vehicle Ecosystem (HIVE), a transportation modeling tool developed by within the Center for Integrated Mobility Sciences (CIMS) group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). HIVE is an agent-based supply/demand model for Mobility on Demand (MoD) which mixes agent-based modeling and centralized dispatch for automated and human-driven fleets and ride hail passengers. Research questions using HIVE span multiple categories, including intelligent fleet planning (assessing fleet, battery, and infrastructure investment decisions), intelligent fleet control (charge management, vehicle dispatching) and strategic business model decision-making (depot-based full-time drivers versus gig-based drivers, human-driven versus automated). The components of the HIVE model are explained and then HIVE is demonstrated in a case study using demand data from the New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission data set.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal mass evacuation planning for electric vehicles before natural disasters

The electric vehicle (EV) market has significantly expanded because EVs have lower operational costs while leaving less environmental footprint than internal combustion engine vehicles. However, EVs also come with drawbacks, including long charging time and short operational ranges. With these drawbacks and limited charging facilities, efficient long-distance EV evacuation management is challenging and has not been properly addressed. Without an efficient evacuation plan, serious congestion could happen at charging facilities, the evacuation process would be excessively long, and thus human lives may be put at risk. This study is motivated to investigate the optimal mass evacuation planning for EVs considering limited charging facilities. A three-stage method is proposed to efficiently approach this problem. A case study of Florida hurricane evacuation is conducted. Here, the method's effectiveness is verified by comparing it with a benchmark. Management insights and policy indications are drawn through sensitivity analysis of key parameters.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Space Nuclear Power Autonomous Control Algorithm and Control Element Test Bed

Nuclear thermal rockets are currently NASA’s preferred option for use in a manned mission to Mars in the 2040s. The communication delay between an Earth ground station and a spacecraft heading toward Mars can be up to 20 min. Therefore, controlling the nuclear rocket engine would require either a full-time reactor operator on the mission or an autonomous control system for the reactor. The latter idea of making space nuclear reactors fully autonomous has drawn more interest from stakeholders, but such an autonomous control system must be rigorously tested and validated before it is certified for human use. The cost of a full ground test for a space nuclear reactor is tremendous, so a nonnuclear mock reactor test bed was created to test and validate control elements and control algorithms for space nuclear reactors. The test bed consists of control element hardware that inputs physical measurement data into a reactor emulator to produce the reactor’s performance under steady-state, transient, and fault conditions. The control element hardware consists of six full-sized control drums equipped with servo drives and motors and is instrumented with optical encoders, resolvers, and torque sensors for drum movement characterization. In addition to the drums, a two-phase flow loop was designed and built to mimic the valves and turbomachinery associated with the propellant flow through a nuclear thermal rocket engine; components such as pressure sensors, flow meters, thermocouples, and tachometers are instrumented throughout the loop to characterize the fluid flow, valve, and turbomachinery behavior of the system. The data from the physical hardware (e.g., drum position, propellant flow rates) are input to a nuclear reactor simulator to determine the actual nuclear reactor parameters, and the data are sent back to a control algorithm to complete the control loop. The ability to conduct numerous tests of the control systems and autonomous algorithms can help validate the instrumentation and control aspects for a space nuclear reactor for every possible fault situation.

Wilson, Brandon↗

DOE OSTI2026

ORCHID: Orchestrated Retrieval-Augmented Classification of High-Risk Property with Intelligent Decision-Making

High-Risk Property (HRP) classification is critical at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites, where inventories include sensitive and often dual-use equipment. Compliance must track evolving rules designated by various export control policies to make transparent and auditable decisions. Traditional expert-only workflows are time-consuming, backlog-prone, and struggle to keep pace with shifting regulatory boundaries. We propose ORCHID, a modular agentic framework for HRP classification that pairs retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with human oversight to produce policy based outputs that can be audited. Small cooperating agents—retrieval, description refiner, classifier, validator, and feedback logger—coordinate via agent-to-agent messaging and invoke tools through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) for model-agnostic on-premise operation. The interface follows an "Item to Evidence to Decision" loop with step-by-step reasoning, on-policy citations, and append-only audit bundles (run-cards, prompts, evidence). In preliminary tests on real HRP cases, ORCHID improves accuracy and traceability over a non-agentic baseline while deferring uncertain items to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). The demonstration shows single item submission, grounded citations, SME feedback capture, and exportable audit artifacts—illustrating a practical path to trustworthy LLM assistance in sensitive DOE compliance workflows.

Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Atmospheric Conditions Leading to a Fumigation Event

During the afternoon of 30 January 2022, the Savannah River Site experienced unusual temperature conditions leading to a fumigation event that triggered safety alarms and caused considerable confusion about the cause of the event. Normally, it is assumed that fumigation events occur early in the day once surface heating has begun. While most fumigation events are related to the breakup of a nocturnal inversion, this event was related to synoptic atmospheric conditions, which provided a more unique scenario that led to the fumigation event. The unusual synoptic atmospheric conditions led to the downwash and fumigation of the elevated plume, causing a pollutant to mix rapidly to the surface. These conditions could have potentially harmed workers within the facility, since the plume was directed toward a building air intake system. Here, we seek to outline the conditions that led to this unusual fumigation event and provide results of two-dimensional (2D) wind modeling of the event to characterize these conditions for future operational guidance of the facility air intake systems. This work sets the groundwork for future high-resolution modeling to explore the mechanisms and thresholds affecting fumigation on the facility-specific short distance scales and improve forecasting of non-standard fumigation events to protect human health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Meta‐Analysis and Regression Modeling of the Impacts of Four Indoor Environmental Quality Metrics on Office Performance

Awareness of how buildings interact with the occupant experience—especially human performance—is becoming more prevalent, as seen by increasing interest and investment in healthy built environments. However, there is a need to synthesize the wide array of existing indoor environmental assessment and performance research in a way that can translate directly to building design and operation. Existing research in this area typically focuses on a single isolated metric and has not focused on making the results utilizable by building practitioners. The aim of this research is to investigate existing office performance literature through meta‐analyses and produce regression models for four indoor environmental quality (IEQ) metrics to support critical decision‐making for building operation and renovation. To reach this aim, a literature review was conducted to identify studies that measure the impact of changing ventilation rate, temperature, horizontal illuminance, and noise level in offices on occupant task performance. This repository of field and laboratory studies was analyzed to visualize the trends between the selected IEQ metrics and task performance. The temperature, ventilation rate, and horizontal illuminance regression models showed clear improvement potential when modifying indoor conditions toward the defined high‐performance range, while the regression model for noise level was inconclusive. The discussion notes the importance of designing holistically for all components of these IEQ categories to utilize the results, for example, good filtration on outdoor air for quantifying ventilation impact and uniform overhead lighting with low contrast for quantifying horizontal illuminance impact. The novelty of this work is in considering multiple facets of the indoor environment under a single, unified analysis schema and producing IEQ‐based performance gains that can directly inform cost‐benefit analyses of building design and renovation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

HEPTAPOD: Orchestrating High Energy Physics Workflows Towards Autonomous Agency

Many workflows in high-energy-physics (HEP) stand to benefit from recent advances in transformer-based large language models (LLMs). While early applications of LLMs focused on text generation and code completion, modern LLMs now support orchestrated agency: the coordinated execution of complex, multi-step tasks through tool use, structured context, and iterative reasoning. We introduce the HEP Toolkit for Agentic Planning, Orchestration, and Deployment (HEPTAPOD), an orchestration framework designed to bring this emerging paradigm to HEP pipelines. The framework enables LLMs to interface with domain-specific tools, construct and manage simulation workflows, and assist in common utility and data analysis tasks through schema-validated operations and run-card-driven configuration. To demonstrate these capabilities, we consider a representative Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) Monte Carlo validation pipeline that spans model generation, event simulation, and downstream analysis within a unified, reproducible workflow. HEPTAPOD provides a structured and auditable layer between human researchers, LLMs, and computational infrastructure, establishing a foundation for transparent, human-in-the-loop systems.

Menzo, Tony [Alabama U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002↗

DOE OSTI2021

Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling

Abstract. Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, multi-reservoir coordination processes have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations within large-scale hydrological models. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that the common modeling practice of parameterizing each reservoir in a cascade independently from the others is a significant approximation and (ii) to demonstrate potential unintended consequences of this independence approximation when simulating the dynamics of hydrological extremes in complex reservoir cascades. We explore these questions using the Water Balance Model, which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. It is applied to the Upper Snake River basin in the western US and its heavily regulated multi-reservoir cascade. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes the method of Morris factor screening to explicitly track how the dominant release rule parameters evolve both along the cascade and in time according to seasonal high- and low-flow events. This enables us to address aim (i) by demonstrating how the progressive and cumulative dominance of upstream releases significantly dampens the ability of downstream reservoir rules' parameters to influence flow conditions. We address aim (ii) by comparing simulation results with observed reservoir operations during critical low-flow and high-flow events in the basin. Our time-varying parameter sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris clarifies how independent single-reservoir parameterizations and their tacit assumption of independence leads to reservoir release behaviors that generate artificial water shortages and flooding, whereas the observed coordinated cascade operations avoided these outcomes for the same events. To further explore the role of (non-)coordination in the large deviations from the observed operations, we use an offline multi-reservoir water balance model in which adding basic coordination mechanisms drawn from the observed emergency operations is sufficient to correct the deficiencies of the independently parameterized reservoir rules from the hydrological model. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state–space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential for properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Methodology for Evaluating Operator Usage of Machine Learning Recommendations for Power Grid Contingency Analysis

This work presents the application of a methodology to measure domain expert trust and workload, elicit feedback, and understand the technological usability and impact when a machine learning assistant is introduced into contingency analysis for real-time power grid simulation. The goal of this framework is to rapidly collect and analyze a broad variety of human factors data in order to accelerate the development and evaluation loop for deploying machine learning applications. We describe our methodology and analysis, and we discuss insights gained from a pilot participant about the current usability state of an early technology readiness level (TRL) artificial neural network (ANN) recommender.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatially Adaptive Tunable Lighting Control System with Expanded Wellness and Energy Saving Benefits

Lighting design is becoming increasingly complex, including active dimming for energy savings and spectral tuning for human wellbeing. Modern commercial lighting control systems are already difficult to use, and maintain, and even with so-called Smart Lighting, optimizing light settings is rapidly exceeding the capabilities of direct human control, limiting the adoption of lighting control systems. The growing importance of Occupancy Centric Controls (OCC) for advanced building management systems can be applied to the development of autonomous lighting system controls needed to drive the adoption of advanced lighting controls for improved adaptive “sculpted illumination” for both greater energy savings and broader human wellbeing perspectives. This project, led by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, entitled “Spatially adaptive tunable lighting control system with expanded wellness and energy saving benefits” will develop and test an entirely new platform for automated optimized lighting design and control that requires little or no human engagement, yet contours lighting profiles automatically to minimize lighting energy use. We call this approach to lighting control “dynamic light sculpting” since the right amount of illumination is automatically delivered to occupants in real time. Since the system uses new, privacy-preserving occupant position and pose detection technologies developed by Rensselaer for broad OCC building applications, the control system will analyze how to deliver the right amount of the right type of illumination only where and when it is needed based these OCC platforms. To create these powerful autonomous lighting control platforms, the project will integrate evolving augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) tools with sophisticated lighting and interior design toolkits to create interactive lighting design and control simulators. Using the quickly growing paradigm of digital twins, these tools will integrate light fixture properties, occupancy sensor data, interior design data, and lighting specifications to accurately visualize how various design concepts interact with simulated yet realistic human activities that occur in commercial office buildings of various types. These advanced digital twin design and simulation tools will be combined with a new class of digitally-programmable LED lighting fixtures that can dynamically change the spectral content and direction of light emission. When fully integrated, the new autonomous lighting control system will take all of the guesswork out of optimizing light quality while minimizing energy consumption. Digital twin tools will simplify the design, installation, commissioning, operation, and maintenance of future energy-efficient lighting systems. It should be possible to reduce lighting energy costs from 40% to 70% with OCC based dynamic light sculpting systems. The work will be led by the Center for Lighting Enabled Systems and Applications (LESA) and the Center for Architectural Science and Ecology (CASE), both at Renssealer Polytechnic Institute; Lumileds, a global leader in the development of advanced LED systems; and HKS, a leading global architecture design firm. This interdisciplinary project team’s experience includes all of the design simulation tools, VR/AR digital twin visualization technology, advanced occupancy sensing technology, and complex control system design capabilities that will revolutionize lighting design and control technology to autonomously deliver high-quality lighting that improves human health and wellbeing while simultaneously maximizing lighting energy savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Targeted Energy Management System Toolset

TEMST integrates advanced sensor systems with advanced computational intelligence, e.g. neural networks and fuzzy arithmetic, to enable effective energy management while minimizing negative human comfort consequences and promoting improved occupant satisfaction. Preliminary work suggests that energy cost reductions above ten percent are easily achievable. In addition to optimizing existing Energy Management Systems (EMS), the proposed toolset will be both resilient and secure in order to proactively maintain a safe level of operational normalcy in response to anomalies and malicious actions.

Rieger, CraigG.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Standardizing UI/UX across accelerator labs

During February 26–28, 2025, the first-ever particle accelerator user interface/user experience (UI/UX) workshop was held at SLAC. Attendees had backgrounds ranging from software development to control systems management and human factors (HF) science. The workshop began with participants discussing the current state of UI/UX procedures and practices at their respective laboratories to share experiences and learn from one another. Additional discussions focused on how to effectively integrate UI/UX best practices into actionable goals for developers, managers, and operators when working on new or existing interfaces. The goal of the working group is to create a website that will guide developers, managers, scientists, and end users at accelerator laboratories in incorporating UI/UX best practices into software development. The working group continues to meet virtually toward this goal, and is planning a second workshop for next year.

Tran, Tiffany [SLAC]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Systematic Enterprise Risk Management by Integrating the RISMC Toolkit and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Final Report)

The goal of this research is to theorize and quantify the relationships between safety and the financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) theoretical framework, which connects the social aspects (e.g., safety culture) and structural features (e.g., safety practices) of an organization with organizational safety and financial risks, is used to theorize the direct and indirect relationships between safety and the financial performance of NPPs. An Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework is developed to operationalize SoTeRiA to quantify NPP safety and financial performance in a unified platform where their underlying physical degradation mechanisms, coupled with maintenance performance (considering human and organizational factors), are explicitly incorporated to depict the interconnections and dependencies between safety and financial performance. In this study, NPP safety refers to both occupational safety and system safety (estimated from Probabilistic Risk Assessment, PRA), and financial performance refers to the monetary values associated with NPP operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. This report covers a case study demonstrating the feasibility of the I-ERM methodological framework. More detailed development of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with other I-ERM modules is demonstrated in a second case study. The outcome of this research will help NPP decision-makers create cost-saving maintenance strategies while maintaining safety by providing cost- and risk-informed recommendations regarding maintenance work processes and operational strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development Final Report

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Smart Methane Emission Detection System Development (Final Report)

Working with the Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory, Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) developed a system to identify methane leaks reliably, accurately, and autonomously at critical midstream sections of the natural gas distribution network in real-time for the purpose of mitigating methane emissions using Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras. SwRI's Smart Leak Detection – Methane (SLED/M) adds a high degree of automation to the process of methane leak detection to minimize sources of human error, minimize response time to a leak event, and maximize midstream visibility. Furthermore, SwRI has been working towards integrating Quantitative OGI (QOGI) capabilities into this existing technology. By leveraging Deep Learning, SwRI now has the capability to estimate fugitive emission leak rates quickly and reliably, which allows operators to detect emissions, quantify leak rate, prioritize repairs, and validate the repairs in a single instrument. The next generation QOGI technology leverages the same cameras used in Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR) programs, with improvements in safety and speed for traditional quantification-based repairs, ultimately leading to less overhead cost for the operators. The goals for this research were to develop two types of models with the following goals: Run in real-time on the edge (≥ 12 Hz), Classification: Achieve less than 5% false positive detection, Classification: Achieve ≥ 95% methane plume detection rate, Regression: achieve ≤ 10 standard cubic feet per hour (scfh) prediction > 70% of the time. In order to achieve these results, multiple infrared (IR) and other sensors were investigated in tandem with the midwave IR (MWIR) OGI to provide additional information to train the underlying models. Information on atmospheric conditions including humidity, temperature, pressure, and solar radiation was provided by a weather station. Several machine learning and deep learning architectures and methods, including looking at quantized classification networks and regressions networks, were explored. As further data was collected, curated, and labeled, it allowed for more refined regressive networks to be adequately trained, leading to better insight into the true flow rates being observed. An important valuable deliverable of this research effort was the development of an advanced network which underwent multiple iterations capable of giving a continuous output. The current network has a predicted mean average percentage error (MAPE) of 12.3% just outside our target goal of 10.00%, but an accuracy of 97.78% at ±50 scfh, well within the overall goal for the Department of Energy (DOE) program. Upon closer inspection, it was observed that more than 10% of datapoints contributing to the MAPE predictions were the result of low flow rate predictions and are beyond the sensitivity of instrument measurement as a result of normal operational variation and noise.

03 NATURAL GAS↗