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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change is intensifying rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in West Africa

Soil erosion is a critical environmental challenge with significant implications for agriculture, water quality, and ecosystem stability. Understanding its dynamics is essential for sustainable environmental management and societal welfare. Here, we analyze rainfall erosivity and erosion patterns across West Africa (WAF) during the historical (1982–2014), near future (2028–2060), and far future (2068–2100) periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 370 and 585). Using bias-corrected-downscaled (BCD) climate models validated against reference data, we ensure an accurate representation of rainfall—a key driver of erosivity (R-factor) and soil erosion. We compare Renard's approach and the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) to calculate the R-factor and note a strong correlation. However, Renard's method shows slightly lower accuracy in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and The Gambia, likely due to its inability to capture high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events. In contrast, the MFI, utilizing continuous rain gauge data, proves more reliable for these regions. We also attribute fluctuations in erosivity, such as those seen during the 2003 West Africa floods, to synoptic weather patterns influenced by multiple climate processes. Furthermore, our analysis reveals regions where future soil erosion could exceed 20 t/ha/yr due to climate change. Under the SSP 370 scenario, soil erosion in WAF is projected to rise by 14.84 % in the near future and 18.65 % in the far future, increasing further under SSP 585 to 19.86 % and 23.49 %, respectively. The most severe increases are expected in Benin and Nigeria, with Nigeria potentially facing a 66.41 % rise in erosion by the far future under SSP 585. These findings highlight the region's exposure to intensified climatic conditions and underscore the urgent need for targeted soil management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate erosion's ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization

The electric sector simultaneously faces two challenges: decarbonization to mitigate, and adaptation to manage, the impacts of climate change. In many regions, these challenges are compounded by an interdependence of electricity and water systems, with water needed for hydropower generation and electricity for water provision. Here, we couple detailed water and electricity system models to evaluate how the Western Interconnection grid can both adapt to climate change and develop carbon-free generation by 2050, while accounting for interactions and climate vulnerabilities of the water sector. We find that by 2050, due to climate change, annual regional electricity use could grow by up to 2% from cooling and water-related electricity demand, while total annual hydropower generation could decrease by up to 23%. To adapt, we show that the region may need to build up to 139 GW of additional generating capacity between 2030 and 2050, equivalent to nearly thrice California's peak demand, and could incur up to $\$$150 billion (+7%) in extra costs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Preliminary Result of Neoclassical Impurity Transport Affected by ICRH with a 4-D Fokker-Planck Code

To understand the role of ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) in mitigating tungsten accumulation, we evaluate the impact of ICRH-induced poloidal asymmetries on neoclassical impurity transport using a newly developed 4-D Fokker–Planck code (FP4D). Unlike conventional approaches that separate RF heating and transport modelling, FP4D solves both fast-ion distribution formation and impurity transport self-consistently without bounce-averaging. Benchmarking against the NEO code confirms the accuracy of the neoclassical physics in FP4D. Using FP4D, we analyze anisotropic and non-Maxwellian minority distributions under ICRH and their effects on the equilibrium potential and tungsten transport. Results show that anisotropy induced poloidal potential variations can reduce inward tungsten flux, depending on the modelling approach. Our findings highlight the importance of resolving the full velocity and poloidal structure of minority species in predicting impurity transport under strong RF heating conditions.

Jeong, Yunho [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republi↗
DOE OSTI2020

KRUSTY Experiment: Reactivity Insertion Accident Analysis

The centerpiece of the Kilopower Project, i.e., the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) test, consists of the development and testing of a ground technology demonstration of a small fission power system based on a 1-kW(electric) space science power requirement. The KRUSTY test was authorized by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office. Authorization was obtained by adding an amendment to the existing regulatory documents for the National Criticality Experiments Research Center to cover the KRUSTY experiment. This amendment was reviewed and approved by the DOE. The most important safety question for the experiment was the addition of over 2 $ of excess reactivity to the reactor system. This amount of excess reactivity meant that the analyst could postulate accidents where the reactor went prompt critical, leading to physical shock or melting of the fuel. This paper analyzes these accidents using computer calculations and examines the controls used to mitigate them. The estimation of the impacts both on accident progression and consequences of reactivity insertion events was a significant part of obtaining approval for the KRUSTY experiment. The regulatory approval of KRUSTY was one of the first to be obtained for a completely new reactor concept in many decades.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Where to cool off: a geospatial framework for placement of cooling centers

Indoor cooling is essential to reduce heat stress and increase passive survivability during heatwaves. Although air conditioning (AC) is recommended for maintaining indoor thermal comfort, low- and medium-income households in the U.S. often do not own an AC and/or limit AC usage to reduce energy consumption and associated costs, thereby risking their health and safety. With the frequency and intensity of heatwaves increasing, cooling centers are considered an appropriate alternative to indoor cooling and a possible mitigation strategy to prevent adverse health impacts of heat exposure. However, these centers are limited in numbers and not always accessible. This requires (i) developing a geospatial framework using physical and social factors for optimal siting of cooling centers to meet future needs and (ii) ranking of existing and potential cooling centers (schools, libraries, religious institutions) based on their accessibility among vulnerable populations and proximity to healthcare facilities. We developed and deployed a geospatial framework based on the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis approach in five U.S. cities (Los Angeles (LA), Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, Miami) to evaluate the effectiveness of the framework in ranking cooling centers based on accessibility and population coverage. The results revealed that (i) access to cooling centers varies across cities and 32.2–50.7% of centers are within walking distance of the most vulnerable populations, (ii) vulnerable populations exposed to Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects are more likely to experience energy burden, and (iii) about 21.2–49.4% of population with high energy burden have access to these centers. Considering that more cooling centers are needed to assist energy burdened households alleviate heat exposure impacts, the framework developed herein could be adapted to incorporate other factors (e.g. health impacts, policies) to assess site suitability of existing shelters, identify potential sites for new cooling centers, and geo-target communities where energy efficient emerging technologies could be deployed to reduce heat stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advanced assessment of beam-induced background at a muon collider

Renewed international interest in muon colliders motivates the continued investigation of the impacts of beam-induced background on detector performance. This continues the effort initiated by the Muon Accelerator Program and carried out until 2017. The beam-induced background from muon decays directly impacts detector performance and must be mitigated by optimizing the overall machine design, with particular attention paid to the machine detector interface region. In order to produce beam-induced background events and to study their characteristics in coordination with the collider optimization, a flexible simulation approach is needed. To achieve this goal we have chosen to utilize the combination of LineBuilder and Monte Carlo FLUKA codes. We report the results of beam-induced background studies with these tools obtained for a 1.5 TeV center of mass energy collider configuration. Good agreement with previous simulations using the MARS15 code demonstrates that our choice of tools meet the accuracy and performance requirements to perform future optimization studies on muon collider designs.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing quantum simulations of the nuclear shell model with Gray-code–based resource-efficient protocols

Background: Some of the computational limitations in solving the nuclear many-body problem could be overcome by utilizing quantum computers. The nuclear shell-model calculations providing deeper insights into the properties of atomic nuclei are one such case with high demand for resources, as the size of the Hilbert space grows exponentially with the number of particles involved. Quantum algorithms are being developed to overcome these challenges and advance such calculations. Purpose: To develop quantum circuits for the nuclear shell-model, leveraging the capabilities of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. Here, we aim to minimize resource requirements (specifically in terms of qubits and gates) and strive to reduce the impact of noise by employing relevant mitigation techniques. Methods: We achieve noise resilience by designing an optimized Ansatz for the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) based on Givens rotations and incorporating qubit-ADAPT-VQE in combination with variational quantum deflation (VQD) to compute ground and excited states, incorporating the zero-noise extrapolation mitigation technique. Furthermore, the qubit requirements are significantly reduced by mapping the basis states to qubits using Gray-code encoding and generalizing transformations of fermionic operators to efficiently represent many-body states. Results: By employing the resource-efficient protocols, we achieve the ground and excited state energy levels of 38 Ar and 6 Li with better accuracy. These energy levels are presented for noiseless simulations, noisy conditions, and after applying noise mitigation techniques. Results are compared for Jordan-Wigner and Gray-code encoding using VQE, qubit-ADAPT-VQE, and VQD. Conclusions: Our work highlights the potential of resource-efficient protocols to leverage the full potential of NISQ devices in scaling the nuclear shell model calculations, offering a pathway toward more complex quantum simulations in nuclear physics. This approach establishes a framework for studying other nuclear systems with improved quantum resource efficiency, marking a significant advancement in applying quantum computing to realistic nuclear physics applications.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scattering phase shifts from a quantum computer

We calculate two-body scattering phase shifts on a quantum computer using a leading order short-range effective field theory Hamiltonian. The algorithm combines the variational quantum eigensolver and the quantum subspace expansion. As an example, we consider scattering in the deuteron 3S1 partial wave. We calculate scattering phase shifts with a quantum simulator and on real hardware. Here, we also study how noise impacts these calculations and discuss noise mitigation required to extend our work to larger quantum processing units. With current hardware, up to five superconducting qubits can produce acceptable results, and larger calculations will require a significant noise reduction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

(Invited) Understanding Multi-Component Transport and Reaction Phenomena in Bipolar Membranes Used for Electrosynthesis

Bipolar membranes (BPMs), which have long seen usage in electrodialysis reactors for the generation of acid and base, have recently demonstrated potential to become critical components in electrochemical synthesis devices. Because they can operate under large pH gradients, BPMs enable favorable environments for electrocatalysis at the individual electrodes. Critical to the implementation of BPMs in these devices is understanding the kinetics of water dissociation that occurs within the BPM junction as well as the co- and counter-ion crossover through the BPM, which both present significant obstacles to developing efficient and stable BPM-devices for electrosynthesis applications. Prior work has modeled ion transport in bipolar membranes in neutral salt solutions for electrodialysis. However, no model exists for the BPM under the harsh applied pH gradients that would be present in electrosynthesis, and there is significant need to explore the effects of the internal hydration on the lifetime and performance of BPMs in such environments. Additionally, a mechanistic understanding of water dissociation catalysis will be required to develop interfacial catalysts that enable the high current density operation required for scalable electrosynthesis of fuels. In this talk, we discuss modeling methodologies and physics inherent in BPMs and present our recent model of ion transport and water dissociation catalysis in BPMs across the pH scale. Specifically, we simulate multi-ion transport for a BPM with various electrolyte combinations on each side of the membrane, demonstrating the significance of co- and counter-ion crossover in BPMs operating under harsh pH gradients. We then investigate effects caused by hydration gradients that occur due to internal ion-exchange and examine potential methods for improving performance and mitigating crossover. Finally, we examine the impact of the interfacial water dissociation catalyst and perform sensitivity analysis on the key properties (catalyst point of zero charge and pKa) that dictate catalyst performance. These results provide information that is critical to developing a comprehensive understanding of multi-component phenomena in BPMs and to informing the design and implementation of BPMs in next-generation devices for the numerous electrosynthesis chemistries that benefit from operation under an applied pH gradient.

Bui, Justin C↗
DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of Wake Steering Through Yaw Control in a Wind Plant Field Experiment: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-16-00629

Over the last few decades, wind energy has evolved into a large international industry involving major players in the manufacturing, construction, and utility sectors. Coinciding with the industry’s growth, significant innovation in the technology has resulted in larger turbines with lower associated costs of energy and more complex designs in all subsystems. However, as the deployment of the technology has grown and its role within the electricity sector become more prominent, so have the expectations of the technology in terms of performance, reliability, and cost. The industry currently partitions its efforts into separate paths for turbine design, plant design and development, finance, grid interaction and operation, mitigation of adverse community and environmental impacts, and other areas. One prominent area where this partition is evident is in wind turbine control. Traditionally, each wind turbine in a wind plant has been controlled separately – via its own internal controller using only its own sensors. However, wind turbines in a plant interact with each other through the plant-level fluid dynamics. Wake losses (due to upstream turbines extracting energy from the winds and “waking” downstream turbines) can be up to 10% or even 20% of the gross energy production (if each turbine experienced the free stream wind inflow to the plant). A series of studies and experiments have demonstrated that there is potential for improving energy output at existing plants through plant control methods which seek to optimize total wind plant energy production over the current “greedy” approach where each turbine maximizes its own production. Wake steering induced by yaw offsets (turning the turbine to be out of the plane perpendicular to wind inflow) for upstream turbines has shown significant promise in simulations and wind tunnel experiments. In simulation studies, annual energy production has been shown to increase by 2% or more depending on the particular aspects of the wind plant (turbine spacing, meteorological conditions, etc). This project seeks to demonstrate the potential of plant-level controls via wake steering at a commercial wind plant. This is an important step towards commercialization and industry adoption of this plant-level modeling and analysis capability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Securing Inverter Communication: Proactive Intrusion Detection and Mitigation System to Tap, Analyze, and Act

The electric grid has undergone rapid, revolutionary changes in recent years; from the addition of advanced smart technologies to the growing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) to increased interconnectivity and communications. However, these added communications, access interfaces, and third-party software to enable autonomous control schemes and interconnectivity also expand the attack surface of the grid. To address the gap of DER cybersecurity and secure the grid-edge to motivate a holistic, defense-in-depth approach, a proactive intrusion detection and mitigation system (PIDMS) device was developed to secure PV smart inverter communications. The PIDMS was developed as a distributed, flexible bump-in-the-wire (BITW) solution for protecting PV smart inverter communications. Both cyber (network traffic) and physical (power system measurements) are processed using network intrusion monitoring tools and custom machinelearning algorithms for deep packet analysis and cyber-physical event correlation. The PIDMS not only detects abnormal events but also deploys mitigations to limit or eliminate system impact; the PIDMS communicates with peer PIDMSs at different locations using the MQTT protocol for increased situational awareness and alerting. The details of the PIDMS methodology and prototype development are detailed in this report as well as the evaluation results within a cyber-physical emulation environment and subsequent industry feedback.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement, reporting and Verification (MRV) of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases: International Best Practices and Suggestions for China

Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) is a systematic approach to tracking and documenting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reductions. MRV can be used across all sectors and for all GHGs to track emissions patterns, evaluate programs, and promote transparency. As methane and other short-lived climate pollutants become critical to mitigating near-term climate change impacts, MRV systems become critical in improving emission inventories; facilitating the development of climate change policies and targets, and tracking and demonstrating progress towards sustainable development. This report focuses on current sectoral issues – including the emerging roles for satellites and remote sensing technologies - and international best practices in MRV policies and programs for non-carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) GHGs including methane, nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in specific sectors. Based on international best practices and a review of China’s current MRV system, we offer suggestions for a possible path forward for developing and implementing a stronger non-CO 2 MRV system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Requirements and Recommendations for a Physical Attack Characterization Framework

This study seeks to identify existing frameworks or develop requirements and recommendations for a new framework that can consistently characterize physical attacks, analogous to MITRE ATT&CK®. MITRE ATT&CK is widely used across government, research organizations, and the cyber security community to characterize cyber attack tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) in a consistent and commonly understood manner. While physical attack taxonomies, methodologies, and other tools for evaluating physical security do exist, many are sector and/or facility-type specific—and therefore not able to provide comparable scenarios across sectors—or are more focused on security assessment instead of the characterization of attacks themselves. A MITRE ATT&CK analog for physical attacks on critical infrastructure would provide a common language and structure for analysis of physical attacks. Existing attack characterization methodologies do not robustly address cyber-physical security risks. To fully understand a facility’s security needs, it is important to understand the entire vulnerability landscape from both a physical and a cyber perspective. To underscore this need, organizations such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are calling for a coordinated approach to cyber and physical security, which they refer to as cyber and physical security convergence. A physical attack characterization framework that could be used jointly with MITRE ATT&CK would help support a more robust analysis in support of convergence, enabling the consistent characterization of attacks that utilize both cyber and physical tactics and techniques. This could provide analysts and stakeholders with a clearer understanding of how security mitigations deployed in the physical realm impact security risks in the cyber realm, and vice versa. In this study, the project team evaluates existing physical security taxonomies and methodologies to assess whether an existing method can be used to create a “physical half” of MITRE ATT&CK. This study then provides requirements and recommendations for a framework that can leverage aspects of existing methodologies. The goal of the final framework is for it to be widely adopted and referenced, regardless of critical infrastructure sector, facility type, or facility components. This study also identifies applicable use cases for when and how a framework could be applied across the various critical infrastructure sectors for a variety of attack types or motivations. Through a literature review of existing security-focused methodologies and taxonomies, engagement with relative stakeholders, evaluation of potential physical attack framework use cases, and subsequent identification of requirements, this study identified the following key findings and recommendations: There is a need for a new physical attack characterization framework; A physical attack framework should be interoperable with the MITRE ATT&CK framework; A physical attack framework should be broadly applicable, but with detailed tactics, techniques, and procedures that encompass the entire attack path; A physical attack framework should be based on observed or feasible events; A physical attack framework should adapt features from existing methodologies, frameworks, and taxonomies; A physical attack framework should be owned, overseen, and maintained by one organization.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making

This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-focused Life Cycle Assessments of Biochar Production by an ARTi Pyrolysis Reactor and an Air Burners CharBoss® Air Curtain Incinerator

This report presents a limited, dynamic, consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the climate impacts of two biochar production methods using wood as a feedstock. The two methods are a pyrolysis reactor supplied by ARTi (Des Moines, IA, https://www.arti.com/) and a T26 CharBoss® air curtain incinerator supplied by Air Burners, Inc. (Palm City, FL, https://airburners.com/). The underlying LCA methodology is described in a chapter by Singh et al. (2024) and implemented in the form of a workbook freely available as online Supplementary Material for the chapter. For the convenience of the reader, a pre-print version of the relevant portions of Singh et al. (2024) is attached as Appendix A to this report. Specific assumptions and calculations to obtain the input parameters used in this LCA for each production method are described in the Methodology section below. This implementation of the LCA considers emissions associated with biomass loading, comminution and conversion, biochar decay in soil, and the production and use of bioenergy generated during the conversion process. The LCA is “limited” in that upstream emissions associated with biomass production, harvest, transportation, and land-use change, as well as embodied emissions in equipment and facilities are not considered. Similarly, downstream emissions from biochar transport and incorporation into soil (i.e., tillage), and the impact of biochar soil amendments on soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (other than CO 2 from biochar decay in soil), soil organic carbon stocks, crop response, and surface albedo are not considered. As the intent is to compare different biochar production methods in a simple unbiased manner, the primary alternative biomass pathway for the LCA is immaculate combustion, which is the hypothetical instantaneous and complete conversion of carbon in the biomass to CO 2 at time zero without generation of any other greenhouse gases or aerosols (GHGAs) or any useful bioenergy. Use of this pathway provides relative values for the production methods and, when the embodied emissions are similar and the same feedstock is used, these relative values are reasonable approximations for those attained with a full LCA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Kent Island Boundary Layer Field Campaign Report

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations about the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) was conducted to study the interactions among the earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), aerosols, atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each experimental site, and to examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. In this activity we performed weekly soundings, alternating between day and night from Kent Island, to get low-frequency, long-term observations of ABL/lower tropospheric thermodynamic structure. However, during the CoURAGE intensive operational period (IOP), we performed high-frequency sampling (2x/day), at times coinciding with CoURAGE IOP soundings at the main site. The short-term, high-frequency sounding information that was launched at 12Z and 18Z was to complement the longer-term data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Accounting for distributive justice in model-based decision support

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Model-based analyses play an ever-increasing role in informing policy and decision-making. However, many large-scale societal challenges unavoidably involve questions about the fair distribution of positive and negative consequences. How are the costs of the energy transition distributed over households and businesses? How are flood risks redistributed under different flood risk management plans? How are the impacts of climate change and climate mitigation distributed over different parts of the world?These kinds of questions play an important role when deliberating public policy, and the lack, in many cases, of clear answers becomes an obstacle to decision-making. At recent COPs, for example, wicked questions about loss and damages and the phase-out versus phase-down of coal became obstacles to global climate action, illustrating the misalignment of the direction of scientific research and decision-makers' information needs. In this talk, I'll explore advances that are being made that enable analysts to start providing grounded model-based answers to questions of distributive justice, as well as argue that analysts should embrace and explicate the normative nature of their work instead of hiding behind the purported neutrality of science. Presenters: Dr. Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology) Moderator(s): Rebecca Saari (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Univ. of Waterloo), Matt Sparks (Univ. of Waterloo); Sarah Fletcher (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Stanford University), Juan Moreno-Cruz (Univ. of Waterloo), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 13, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Kwakkel, Jan H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Price Formation and Grid Operation Impacts from Variable Renewable Energy Resources

Increasing amounts of Variable Renewable Energy Resources (VREs) impact electricity markets and their operation. VREs are intermittent, zero marginal cost resources that tend to displace emissions-intensive generators in electricity dispatch, reducing emissions, but impacting price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, and market power mitigation processes of electricity markets. But VREs are not the only factor that affects operational and financial challenges in electricity markets. Declining natural gas prices, changing resource mixes, as well as different electricity market designs and regulatory policies all factor into the challenges both electricity market participants and operators face in today’s electricity markets. With this in-depth examination of electricity markets and related literature review, we aim to inform on key challenges of market design and operation for successful integration of large amounts of zero marginal cost resources. We’ve identified several areas, including VREs impact on price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, market power monitoring and mitigation, as well as how state-level incentives and market design impact VREs and these challenges. With each key challenge, we survey the literature to answer the question: To what extent is the problem, and how has it evolved over time? We first conduct a thorough review of ongoing challenges in electricity markets to understand the problem and review the empirical literature to capture important findings on how VREs, specifically, impact the problem. From this review, we highlight metrics that are important to understanding VRE integration and how market designs and outcomes are evolving with increasing levels of VREs. We propose several empirical models for future research to determine the impact of VREs on these identified challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗