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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28

Spitzer Orbit Determination During In-orbit Checkout Phase

The Spitzer Space Telescope was injected into heliocentric orbit on August 25, 2003 to observe and study astrophysical phenomena in the infrared range of frequencies. The initial 60 days was dedicated to Spitzer's "In-Orbit Checkout (IOC)" efforts. During this time high levels of Helium venting were used to cool down the telescope. Attitude control was done using reaction wheels, which in turn were de-saturated using cold gas Nitrogen thrusting. Dense tracking data (nearly continuous) by the Deep Space network (DSN) were used to perform orbit determination and to assess any possible venting imbalance. Only Doppler data were available for navigation. This paper deals with navigation efforts during the IOC phase. It includes Dust Cover Ejection (DCE) monitoring, orbit determination strategy validation and results and assessment of non-gravitational accelerations acting on Spitzer including that due to possible imbalance in Helium venting.

helium venting↗

Hybrid Large Eddy Simulation/Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes Analysis of a Premixed Ethylene-Fueled Dual-Mode Scramjet Combustor

Hydrocarbon fuels offer optimal high energy per volume for scramjet applications for sustained hypersonic flight but require additional residence time due to slower ignition delays (compared with hydrogen fuel). The injection of ethylene at the start of the isolator of a dual-mode scramjet combustor, operating in ramjet mode, allows sufficient mixing to achieve efficient premixed turbulent combustion. A cavity flameholder anchors the flame, supplying sufficient radicals to sustain a stable flame in the high-speed environment. This work investigates flame structure and stabilization limits of a new configuration with a scaled-down cavity embedded in the flow path of the combustor with a strut and insert. The cavity is reduced in size by one-third to enable eventual direct numerical simulations of the flame stabilization process. This work, however, focuses on modeling the full isolator/combustor geometry using a hybrid large eddy simulation/Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulation strategy. Additionally, particle image velocimetry, planar laser-induced fluorescence, coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy, and pressure measurements are compared with numerical predictions to analyze and characterize the conditions within the combustor, including flame structure, flow velocities, species composition, and wall pressure. An adjustable air throttle in the extender is able to control the placement of the shock train in the isolator and maintain a stable flame at various equivalence ratios. The simulations show reasonably good agreement with the experimental scalar and velocity data and predict a flame angle consistent with premixed turbulent flame-speed correlations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative Life Cycle Evaluation of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) Impacts of Renewable Natural Gas Production Pathways

Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) sources are being considered in future energy strategy discussions as potential replacements for fossil natural gas (FNG). While today’s supply of RNG resources is insufficient to meet U.S. demands, there is significant interest in its viability to supplement and decarbonize the natural gas supply. However, the resources that compare the life cycle global warming potential (GWP) of various RNG production pathways are lacking and focus mostly on a singular pathway. This effort is an attempt to close this gap and provide a comparison between the life cycle GWP of three major RNG pathways and the FNG pathway. The three RNG pathways evaluated are Anaerobic Digestion (AD), Thermal Gasification (TG), and Power-to-Gas (P2G) using various feedstocks. The functional unit is 1MJ of compressed RNG ready for injection into the natural gas transmission network. The results show that RNG production is not always carbon neutral or negative. Depending on the pathway the GWP impact of RNG production can range from -229 to 27 g CO 2 e/MJ compressed RNG, with AD of animal manure and AD of municipal solid waste being the least and the most impactful pathways, respectively, compared to the 10.1 g CO 2 e/MJ impact for compressed FNG.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial inequities in access to medications for treatment of opioid use disorder highlight scarcity of methadone providers under counterfactual scenarios

Access to treatment and medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is essential in reducing opioid use and associated behavioral risks, such as syringe sharing among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Syringe sharing among PWID carries high risk of transmission of serious infections such as hepatitis C and HIV. MOUD resources, such as methadone provider clinics, however, are often unavailable to PWID due to barriers like long travel distance to the nearest methadone provider and the required frequency of clinic visits. The goal of this study is to examine the uncertainty in the effects of travel distance in initiating and continuing methadone treatment and how these interact with different spatial distributions of methadone providers to impact co-injection (syringe sharing) risks. A baseline scenario of spatial access was established using the existing locations of methadone providers in a geographical area of metropolitan Chicago, Illinois, USA. Next, different counterfactual scenarios redistributed the locations of methadone providers in this geographic area according to the densities of both the general adult population and according to the PWID population per zip code. We define different reasonable methadone access assumptions as the combinations of short, medium, and long travel distance preferences combined with three urban/suburban travel distance preference. Our modeling results show that when there is a low travel distance preference for accessing methadone providers, distributing providers near areas that have the greatest need (defined by density of PWID) is best at reducing syringe sharing behaviors. However, this strategy also decreases access across suburban locales, posing even greater difficulty in regions with fewer transit options and providers. As such, without an adequate number of providers to give equitable coverage across the region, spatial distribution cannot be optimized to provide equitable access to all PWID. Our study has important implications for increasing interest in methadone as a resurgent treatment for MOUD in the United States and for guiding policy toward improving access to MOUD among PWID.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Mid-Continent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub Project Phase II (Final Summary Report)

The Phase II Integrated Midcontinent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub (IMSCS-HUB) is part of the Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) established by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). CarbonSAFE is phased to support the development of commercial-scale (50 million metric tonnes [Mt] over a 30-year period) carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the United States. The IMSCS-HUB study area comprises carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska (the source corridor), and CO 2 sinks in Kansas and Nebraska (the storage corridor), representing the first large-scale project for the Midcontinent region. The stacked storage corridor is characterized by alternating sequences of deep saline formations, oil-bearing reservoirs, shale, and evaporite units that are conducive to vertically stacked CO 2 injection for geologic storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Three sites within the IMSCS-HUB stacked storage corridor were evaluated in Phase II for commercial CCUS feasibility: one in southwest-central Nebraska, Sleepy Hollow Field (SHF), a second in southwestern Nebraska near Madrid (Madrid), and a third in southwestern Kansas, the Patterson Site (composed of the Patterson, Heinitz, Hartland, and Oslo fields). In Phase II, the team assessed the feasibility of storage complexes at the potential storage sites in Nebraska and Kansas to support a commercial-scale storage hub that integrates proven CO 2 capture technology and transport from nearby ethanol sources. Building on lessons learned from the DOE-NETL Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs), the Project Team has identified a clear strategy to meet DOE’s 2025 objective of commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation by developing a CO 2 market and infrastructure that relies on multiple ethanol-based CO 2 sources in the short term and the incorporation of multiple coal-fired power plant CO 2 sources when commercial capture is economically viable. The team also leveraged the updated 45Q tax credit to develop capture and transport infrastructure. Commercial-scale CCUS is feasible at two candidate storage sites studied, the Madrid, Nebraska Site and the Patterson Site in Kearny County, Kansas. The Sleepy Hollow Field in Nebraska was found to be an attractive candidate for stacked storage with CO 2 -EOR (Battelle 2020e). Outreach efforts facilitated engagement from industry, government, and research sectors (Battelle and GPI, 2020) and an outreach plan for future phases of the project was developed to address issues that are of concern in the IMSCS-HUB project area (Battelle, 2020f). All components of a CCUS project were determined to be feasible in the IMSCS-HUB region and Risk Mitigation Plan was developed and includes strategies to mitigate risks associated with each project component (Battelle, 2020j). A roadmap was developed to obtain the required UIC permits for an integrated CCUS project (Battelle, 2020k). The regional storage resource characterization demonstrated significant opportunity for commercial-scale projects in the IMSCS-HUB storage corridor with 577.4 Mt of stacked CO 2 storage capacity and the potential to produce 181.9 MMbbls of oil via EOR across 17 individual storage areas (Battelle and ARI, 2020). The pipeline assessment study found viable pipeline routes that connected 45Q-eligible ethanol plants, coal fired power plants, and other sources in the IMSCS-HUB corridor. The comprehensive results of subsurface characterization, modeling efforts, outreach assessment, and regulatory analysis from were integrated to develop a Detailed Commercial Development Plan for the IMSCS-HUB (Battelle, 2020n). Commercialization efforts will involve obtaining Class VI UIC permits, establishing and finalizing the pipeline route, and evaluating capture projects at participating CO 2 sources. Phases I and II of the IMSCS-HUB CarbonSAFE provide a strong foundation for safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively characterizing and permitting commercial-scale project sites in the region. The plan for implementation of commercial-scale CCUS projects in the IMSCS-HUB is aligned with the objectives of CarbonSAFE Phase III: Site Characterization and CO 2 Capture Assessment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Recyclability of reversible polymer networks over a Dozen reprocessing cycles

Reversible polymer networks capable of reversible reactions along their backbone provide a promising strategy for addressing waste management challenges associated with conventional thermoset products. However, reversible polymer networks cannot be recycled infinitely. Unavoidable side reactions eventually cause significant degradation of mechanical properties or loss of recyclability. This study aims to answer a simple yet critical question on reversible polymer network systems: how many reprocessing cycles can be achieved before profound mechanical degradation or a loss of recyclability? The recyclability of Diels–Alder (DA) network samples was evaluated by repeating consistent reprocessing cycles until they were no longer reprocessable. To enhance their recyclability, the chemical structure of the maleimide precursor was tailored to mitigating side reactions by maleimide homopolymerization. Remarkably, by employing a maleimide precursor with alkyl substitutions on its phenyl group, the DA network system attained 12 reprocessing cycles using injection molding at 160 °C without significant degradation of mechanical properties. However, the 13th reprocessing cycle did not succeed. Rheological analysis revealed the accumulation of non-reversible bonds within the network structure during repeated reprocessing, despite fairly consistent mechanical properties under operating conditions. This study demonstrates that the rational design of the maleimide precursor is an effective means to enhance the reprocessability of DA networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Physics makes the difference: Bayesian optimization and active learning via augmented Gaussian process

Abstract Both experimental and computational methods for the exploration of structure, functionality, and properties of materials often necessitate the search across broad parameter spaces to discover optimal experimental conditions and regions of interest in the image space or parameter space of computational models. The direct grid search of the parameter space tends to be extremely time-consuming, leading to the development of strategies balancing exploration of unknown parameter spaces and exploitation towards required performance metrics. However, classical Bayesian optimization (BO) strategies based on the Gaussian process (GP) do not readily allow for the incorporation of the known physical behaviors or past knowledge. Here we explore a hybrid optimization/exploration algorithm created by augmenting the standard GP with a structured probabilistic model of the expected system’s behavior. This approach balances the flexibility of the non-parametric GP approach with a rigid structure of physical knowledge encoded into the parametric model. The fully Bayesian treatment of the latter allows additional control over the optimization via the selection of priors for the model parameters. The method is demonstrated for a noisy version of a standard univariate test function used to evaluate optimization algorithms and further extended to physical lattice models. This methodology is expected to be universally suitable for injecting prior knowledge in the form of physical models and past data in the BO framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Use of promethazine to hasten adaptation to provocative motion

In an earlier study, the authors found that severely motion sick individuals could be greatly relieved of their symptoms by intramuscular injections of promethazine (50 mg) or scopolamine (.5 mg). Comparable 50-mg injections of promethazine also have been found effective in alleviating symptoms of space motion sickness. The concern has risen, however, that such drugs may delay or retard the acquisition of adaptation to stressful environments. In the current study, we controlled arousal using a mental arithmetic task and precisely equated the exposure history (number of head movements during rotation) of a placebo, control group and an experimental group who had received promethazine. No differences in total adaptation or in rates of adaptation were present between the two groups. Another experimental group also received promethazine and was allowed to make as many head movements as they could, before reaching nausea, up to 800. This group showed a greater level of adaptation than the placebo group. These results suggest a strategy for dealing with space motion sickness that is described.

Non-NASA Center↗

Challenges of designing, operating, and managing brine extraction at a carbon dioxide storage site

Developing and deploying commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage at a site requires operational strategies to manage pressure and CO 2 plume distribution. In the natural gas storage and oil and gas industries, fluid extraction has been successfully implemented as a strategy to manage pressure and control fluid distribution (i.e., hydrocarbon recovery and natural gas storage efficiency, respectively). The technical challenges of integrating brine extraction at CO 2 storage sites are expected to be similar, if not identical, to those in the natural gas storage and petroleum industries. Major technical challenges of using brine extraction to manage storage in a storage unit include (1) designing and completing the brine extraction wells, (2) locating the brine extraction well, (3) assessing the efficacy of brine extraction, and (4) handling the extracted brine. The design and completion of the brine extraction well include the well type (i.e., vertical or horizontal) and perforated interval. The location of the well is influenced by the timing of extraction operations (i.e., prior or after CO 2 injection starts) and project objectives (i.e., desired directional movement of the CO 2 plume and avoid or minimize CO 2 extraction). The efficacy of brine extraction requires a baseline projection of the pressure and CO 2 plume distribution. Options for handling extracted brine include subsurface disposal, surface disposal, and industrial use. Here this paper addresses means of overcoming technical challenges that may likely be encountered before or after CO 2 injection starts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

An Improved Boosting to Amplify Signal with Isobaric Labeling (iBASIL) Strategy for Precise Quantitative Single-cell Proteomics

Mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics has great potential for overcoming the limitations of antibody-based immunoassays for antibody-independent, comprehensive, and quantitative proteomic analysis of single cells. Indeed, recent advances in nanoscale sample preparation have enabled effective processing of single cells. In particular, the concept of using boosting/carrier channels in isobaric labeling to increase the sensitivity in MS detection has also been increasingly used for quantitative proteomic analysis of small-sized samples including single cells. However, the full potential of such boosting/carrier approaches has not been significantly explored, nor has the resulting quantitation quality been carefully evaluated. Herein, we have further evaluated and optimized our recent boosting to amplify signal with isobaric labeling (BASIL) approach, originally developed for quantifying phosphorylation in small number of cells, for highly effective analysis of proteins in single cells. This improved BASIL (iBASIL) approach enables reliable quantitative single-cell proteomics analysis with greater proteome coverage by carefully controlling the boosting-to-sample ratio (e.g. in general <100×) and optimizing MS automatic gain control (AGC) and ion injection time settings in MS/MS analysis (e.g. 5E5 and 300 ms, respectively, which is significantly higher than that used in typical bulk analysis). By coupling with a nanodroplet-based single cell preparation (nanoPOTS) platform, iBASIL enabled identification of ~2500 proteins and precise quantification of ~1500 proteins in the analysis of 104 FACS-isolated single cells, with the resulting protein profiles robustly clustering the cells from three different acute myeloid leukemia cell lines. This study highlights the importance of carefully evaluating and optimizing the boosting ratios and MS data acquisition conditions for achieving robust, comprehensive proteomic analysis of single cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Programmable Logic Controller Memory Forensics Using RGB Image Analysis and Deep Learning

The introduction of Industry 4.0 and Internet-based technologies has enhanced industrial control system operations but have inadvertently increased their vulnerabilities to cyber attacks. When an industrial control system is compromised, security analysts need to identify the root cause quickly to start the recovery process and develop mitigation strategies. Memory forensics is critical in the incident analysis process to ascertain what occurred. Approaches for analyzing the persistent memory in industrial control devices are limited and almost nonexistent for volatile memory. This chapter proposes an automated methodology for programmable logic controller memory dump analysis using computer vision and deep learning techniques. The methodology converts the sequences of bytes in a programmable logic controller memory dump to red-green-blue pixels and employs a deep learning model that learns the underlying patterns and features of pre-labeled forensic artifacts in images and segments them into distinct regions. The trained model is employed to automatically segment new memory images and identify forensic artifacts. Evaluation of the methodology on a Schneider Electric Modicon M221 programmable logic controller under code injection and code modification attacks demonstrates its ability to detect attack artifacts in memory dumps.

Asmar Awad, Rima [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000233407742)↗

Predeployment validation of fault-tolerant systems through software-implemented fault insertion

Fault injection-based automated testing (FIAT) environment, which can be used to experimentally characterize and evaluate distributed realtime systems under fault-free and faulted conditions is described. A survey is presented of validation methodologies. The need for fault insertion based on validation methodologies is demonstrated. The origins and models of faults, and motivation for the FIAT concept are reviewed. FIAT employs a validation methodology which builds confidence in the system through first providing a baseline of fault-free performance data and then characterizing the behavior of the system with faults present. Fault insertion is accomplished through software and allows faults or the manifestation of faults to be inserted by either seeding faults into memory or triggering error detection mechanisms. FIAT is capable of emulating a variety of fault-tolerant strategies and architectures, can monitor system activity, and can automatically orchestrate experiments involving insertion of faults. There is a common system interface which allows ease of use to decrease experiment development and run time. Fault models chosen for experiments on FIAT have generated system responses which parallel those observed in real systems under faulty conditions. These capabilities are shown by two example experiments each using a different fault-tolerance strategy.

Czeck, Edward W.↗

Trajectory Design and Orbit Determination for the Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS)

The Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) was competitively selected by the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) as a low-cost (< $80M) 1000 kg secondary payload to be launched with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) in October of 2008. LCROSS is a lunar impactor mission that will investigate the presence or absence of water in a permanently shadowed crater. Following launch, trans-lunar injection (TLI) and separation from LRO, LCROSS will remain attached to the launch vehicle's approximately 2300 kg spent Earth Departure Upper Stage (EDUS) and will guide it toward an impact of a permanently shadowed crater at the lunar South Pole. Hours prior to impact, LCROSS will separate from the EDUS and perform a braking maneuver that will allow the spacecraft to take measurements of the resulting EDUS impact ejecta cloud for several minutes, before impacting the crater as well. As a cost-capped secondary mission that must accommodate specific LRO launch dates, LCROSS faces unique challenges and constraints that must be carefully reconciled in order to satisfy an ambitious set of science observation requirements. This paper examines driving mission requirements and constraints and describes the trajectory design and navigation strategy that shape the LCROSS mission.

Galal, Ken↗

Strain-Based Assessment of Shale Caprock during Cyclic Underground Hydrogen Storage

Successful large-scale underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted gas reservoirs depends on the integrity of the overlying caprock to prevent hydrogen loss during cyclic injection and depletion. Prior studies on crushed Marcellus shale, a potential caprock, indicate that cyclic hydrogen injection and depletion induces microstructural changes, increasing porosity and permeability. However, the extent of these changes in intact shale remains unclear. This study presents a strain-based experimental approach to quantify volumetric strain evolution in intact Marcellus shale matrix under unconstrained stress conditions. A quadrant-shaped shale sample without visible fractures underwent eight hydrostatic pore-pressure cycles (injection to 1500 psi and depletion to 500 psi in 250 psi steps). Linear strain gauges measured strain in three orthogonal directions. Results indicate progressive plastic strain accumulation, leading to an ∼12% increase in matrix porosity after eight cycles, with an estimated 19% increase after 30 cycles. This porosity increase follows a logarithmic trend, suggesting a diminishing effect in later cycles. Additionally, permeability and diffusive mass flux are projected to rise by ∼70% over 30 cycles, enhancing hydrogen migration risk. The shale matrix also exhibited mechanical stiffening over successive cycles, limiting large-scale deformation but not preventing porosity enhancement. A new parameter, α, was introduced to characterize shale sensitivity to cyclic loading, aiding UHS caprock assessments. These findings underscore the necessity of incorporating cyclic loading effects in UHS site selection and operational strategies to ensure long-term storage integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Beyond Binary: Automated PLC Memory Forensics through RGB Image Analysis and Deep Learning

The introduction of Industry 4.0 and the evolution of industrial control systems (ICS) to adopt Internet-based technologies enhanced productivity, but have inadvertently increased their vulnerability to cyber-based malicious attacks. When an ICS system is compromised, security analysts need to identify the root cause quickly to start the recovery process and develop mitigation strategies to safeguard against future instances. Memory forensics is critical in the analysis process to ascertain what occurred. To date, approaches to analyze the persistent memory in ICS devices are limited, and almost nonexistent for volatile memory. This paper proposes an automated methodology, COMA, for PLC memory dump analysis using computer vision and deep learning techniques. Specifically, COMA converts the sequences of bytes in a PLC memory dump to RGB pixels and creates a deep learning model that learns the underlying patterns and features of pre-labeled forensic artifacts in images and segments them into distinct regions. COMA then uses the trained model to automatically segment new memory images and extract forensic artifacts. We evaluate COMA on a Schneider Electric Modicon M221 PLC involving two cyber-based attack scenarios: (i) code injection and (ii) code modification. The empirical results show that COMA can successfully detect attack artifacts in memory dumps in both scenarios.

Asmar Awad, Rima↗

A dynamic 2D Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) model for enhanced computational efficiency

Progressing toward a future increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources, the development of effective, durable energy storage solutions becomes essential to balance supply and demand fluctuations. Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) is a long-duration thermal energy storage technology that captures excess heat generated from renewable energy sources and stores it underground for later use, enabling the efficient utilization of sustainable energy. This approach is particularly valuable in district energy networks when integrated with Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) to provide stable heating and cooling. However, traditional three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of BTES systems demand extensive computational resources, limiting their practicality for real-time and large-scale applications. This study introduces a novel two-dimensional (2D) modeling approach that reduces computational costs while maintaining high accuracy. By employing a radial ring-based discretization method, the model simulates heat injection, retention, and retrieval dynamics over seasonal cycles. A new thermal-mass weighted-average temperature parameter is introduced to evaluate the performance of BTES systems. Model validation against FEFLOW simulations demonstrates a 17-fold improvement in computational speed compared to traditional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models while achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2 % during charging and 4 % during discharging. Additionally, a trade-off analysis between computational efficiency and accuracy is conducted, ensuring the model's applicability for real-world scenarios. The findings of this research contribute to the development of computationally efficient BTES models, facilitating better optimization, control, and integration into renewable energy systems. This work provides a foundation for further studies in techno-economic analysis, multi-year performance evaluation, and real-time operational strategies for BTES applications, supporting a more sustainable energy future.

2D modeling↗

Tuning counterion chemistry to reduce carrier localization in doped semiconducting carbon nanotube networks

Understanding and controlling the impact that electrostatic interactions have on the transport of injected charge carriers is important for the utilization of pi-conjugated semiconductors in opto-electronic applications. Here, we explore the impact of dopant chemical and electronic structure on the doping efficacy and charge carrier transport in semiconducting single-walled carbon nanotube (s-SWCNT) networks using molecular charge-transfer dopants based on functionalized icosahedral dodecaborane (DDB) clusters. Calculations indicate that localization of electron density on the DDB core reduces the coulombic interactions that contribute to hole localization in the s-SWCNTs, thereby improving charge carrier transport. The enhanced delocalization produces an increase in the electrical conductivity and thermopower at lower charge carrier densities, yielding enhanced thermoelectric transport and a thermoelectric power factor that surpasses the previous best in class for enriched s-SWCNT thin-film networks. This strategy can be applied broadly across pi-conjugated semiconductors to tune and enhance performance in a variety of energy harvesting devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗