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Recommendations on Evidence and Process for Certification of Learning-enabled Components in Aerospace Systems

This report primarily identifies a collection of relevant and necessary evidence for assurance of machine learnt components (MLCs)—also known as learning-enabled components—integrated into aircraft systems, and gives preliminary suggestions on the elements of a certification process that invoke the identified evidence. The main focus is on feedforward neural networks that are static and trained offline through supervised learning. A brief background on the generic elements of the lifecycle of an MLC is given to contextualize the assurance considerations and, consequently, the evidence that is relevant and necessary to support certification. At the level of an MLC, those considerations relate to: (i) the consistency and correctness of MLC contributions to system functions in the context of a validated functional intent; and (ii) the absence of MLC contributions to aircraft-level failure conditions. At an ML model level, confidence in model and data properties contribute to assurance of the containing MLC, in particular: (a) generalizability and robustness of models, in the presence of inputs not previously seen during training, disturbances to inputs, and unexpected inputs; and (b) valid data, i.e., data that are at least representative, relevant, complete, and accurate. Evidence for the above span the elements of the ML lifecycle, and includes, at a minimum, lifecycle artifacts that pertain to: (1) properties of requirements capturing functional intent, safety constraints, and aspects of the intended use and operating environment; (2) model performance, model complexity and design, and algorithm choice; (3) achievement of required performance at the levels of a trained model during model development, a trained model after model development is complete, and a trained model that is transformed into an executable equivalent; (4) model implementation aspects necessary for transforming a trained model into the executable equivalent; (5) integration of the executable trained model into the containing MLC, and eventually the larger system; and, (6) lastly, the verification and validation (V&V) of each of the above. Such V&V lifecycle artifacts themselves include: aspects of coverage, e.g., of various levels of requirements by the input space of the model and the data; traceability (where applicable); application of formal methods for property specification, analysis, and checking. Examples of evidence generation methods and tools further ground the discussion on what constitutes evidence, and the contribution to assurance during certification. The identified assurance considerations and supporting evidence is not a comprehensive set. Additionally, neither what should be considered as sufficient evidence relative to the assigned criticality of an MLC, nor how criticality ought to be determined and adjusted, have been considered in this report. However, suggestions are made for potential activities of the ML lifecycle that are aimed at providing confidence that an MLC can be relied upon when integrated into its containing (aircraft) system. Those activities are proposed as candidate elements of a certification process for MLCs. The main purpose of this report to inform regulatory guidance and consensus standards that may be used to meet the safety intent of the applicable regulations.

Aviation safety↗

Operator Workload and Task Allocation in m:N Operational Architectures of Uncrewed Aerial Systems

Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) show promise in urban air transport, package delivery, and emergency services. UAS efficiency can be significantly improved by having fewer operators (m) manage a greater number of vehicles (N), or the m:N architecture of operation. The current study investigates how workload affects operators’ task-allocation decision-making and potential effects of two crucial human factors: trust and self-confidence. In the context of a simulated UAS package-delivery task, 10 participants with expertise in UAS operation were recruited. Each participant reported their preferred task-allocation strategy for a set of five subtasks while watching two sets of videos with different workload levels. Perceived workload, trust, and self-confidence were also measured after each video session. Overall, participants indicated a preference for automation for most of the subtasks under the delivery mission. Trust, rather than workload and self-confidence, played a significant role in experts’ decisions of task-allocation and assignment methods. Higher trust led to higher preference for automation.

workload↗

Analysis of CDC Bioreactor Internal Thermal Measurements and Sample Coupon Temperatures

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) bioreactor is an integral laboratory tool for the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) biofilm formation and growth research program. Critical to this research is the need to adjust and maintain various surface temperatures of the coupons housed within the CDC Bioreactor. The purpose of this study was to provide quantitative temperature gradient information when the CDC Bioreactor was operating according to several process scenarios. Two primary process parameters were evaluated. For the first set of test parameters, the liquid level was maintained at 350 mL, with an inlet flowrate of 0.1 mL/min, 1 mL/min, 10 mL/min. The liquid was allowed to gravity drain out of the outlet spout. For the second set of test parameters, the liquid level within the reactor was maintained at 550 mL, with an inlet flow of 0.1 mL/min, 1 mL/min, 10 mL/min and draining intermittently controlled to 0.8 mL/min to maintain the 550 mL level. Due to the placement of the thermocouple in the reactor, a difference in temperature occurred between the coupon surfaces and target Bioreactor temperature when operated according to the first set of test parameters. When the reactor was operated according to the second set of parameters, which resulted in the thermocouple being submerged, the temperature gradient was eliminated. The results demonstrated minimal temperature gradient between the top and bottom coupon surfaces for coupons placed in a single rod within the CDC Bioreactor for both sets of test parameters evaluated. The collection of this information helped to explain previous ECLSS biofilm formation test runs, along with providing guidance on best operating practices for future ECLSS experiments. The placement of the thermocouple also helps to explain the challenge of achieving and maintaining bulk liquid temperatures when biofilm is grown according to the standardized test methods.

CDC Bioreactor↗

Robustness of Deep Learning Classification to Adversarial Input on GPUs: Asynchronous Parallel Accumulation Is a Source of Vulnerability

The ability of machine learning (ML) classification models to resist small, targeted input perturbations—known as adversarial attacks—is a key measure of their safety and reliability. We show that floating-point non associativity (FPNA) coupled with asynchronous parallel programming on GPUs is sufficient to result in misclassification, without any perturbation to the input. Additionally, we show that this misclassification is particularly significant for inputs close to the decision boundary and that standard adversarial robustness results may be overestimated up to 4.6 when not considering machine-level details. We first study a linear classifier, before focusing on standard Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures and datasets used in robustness assessments. We develop a novel black-box attack using Bayesian optimization to discover external workloads that can change the instruction scheduling which bias the output of reductions on GPUs and reliably lead to misclassification. Motivated by these results, we present a new learnable permutation (LP) gradient-based approach to learning floating-point operation orderings that lead to misclassifications. The LP approach provides a worst-case estimate in a computationally efficient manner, avoiding the need to run identical experiments tens of thousands of times over a potentially large set of possible GPU states or architectures. Finally, using instrumentation-based testing, we investigate parallel reduction ordering across different GPU architectures under external background workloads, when utilizing multi-GPU virtualization, and when applying power capping. Our results demonstrate that parallel reduction ordering varies significantly across architectures under the first two conditions, substantially increasing the search space required to fully test the effects of this parallel scheduler-based vulnerability. These results and the methods developed here can help to include machine-level considerations into adversarial robustness assessments, which can make a difference in safety and mission critical applications.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif [Maxeler Technologies, a Groq↗

Analysis of CDC Bioreactor Internal Thermal Measurements and Sample Coupon Temperatures

The CDC Biofilm Reactor is an integral laboratory tool for the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) biofilm formation and growth research program. Critical to this research is the need to adjust and maintain various surface temperatures of the coupons housed within the CDC Biofilm Reactor. The purpose of this study was to provide quantitative temperature gradient information when the CDC Biofilm Reactor was operating according to several process scenarios. Two primary process parameters were evaluated. For the first set of test parameters, the liquid level was maintained at 350 mL, with an inlet flowrate of 0.1 mL/min, 1 mL/min, 10 mL/min. The liquid was allowed to gravity drain out of the outlet spout. For the second set of test parameters, the liquid level within the reactor was maintained at 550 mL, with an inlet flow of 0.1 mL/min, 1 mL/min, 10 mL/min and draining intermittently controlled to 0.8 mL/min to maintain the 550 mL level. Due to the placement of the thermocouple in the reactor, a difference in temperature occurred between the coupon surfaces and target biofilm reactor temperature when operated according to the first set of test parameters. When the reactor was operated according to the second set of parameters, which resulted in the thermocouple being submerged, the temperature gradient was eliminated. The results demonstrated minimal temperature gradient between the top and bottom coupon surfaces for coupons placed in a single rod within the CDC Biofilm Reactor for both sets of test parameters evaluated. The collection of this information helped to explain previous ECLSS biofilm formation test runs, along with providing guidance on best operating practices for future ECLSS experiments. The placement of the thermocouple also helps to explain the challenge of achieving and maintaining bulk liquid temperatures when biofilm is grown according to the standardized test methods.

CDC Bioreactor↗

An Ab Initio Study of the Low-Lying Doublet States of AgO and AgS

Spectroscopic constants (D(sub o), r(sub e), mu(sub e), T(sub e)) are determined for the doublet states of AgO and AgS below approx. = 30000/cm. Large valence basis sets are employed in conjunction with relativistic effective core potentials (RECPs). Electron correlation is included using the modified coupled-pair functional (MCPF) and multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) methods. The A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) - X(sup 2)Pi band system is found to occur in the near infrared (approx. = 9000/cm) and to be relatively weak with a radiative lifetime of 900 microns for A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) (upsilon = 0). The weakly bound C(sup 2)Pi state (our notation), the upper state of the blue system, is found to require high levels of theoretical treatment to determine a quantitatively accurate potential. The red system is assigned as a transition from the C(sup 2)Pi state to the previously unobserved A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) state. Several additional transitions are identified that should be detectable experimentally. A more limited study is performed for the vertical excitation spectrum of AgS. In addition, a detailed all-electron study of the X(sup 2)Pi and A(sup 2)Sigma(sup +) states of AgO is carried out using large atomic natural orbital (ANO) basis sets. Our best calculated D(sub o) value for AgO is significantly less than the experimental value, which suggests that there may be some systematic error in the experimental determination.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

Evaluation of Pulse Counting for the Mars Organic Mass Analyzer (MOMA) Ion Trap Detection Scheme

The Mars Organic Mass Analyzer is being developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to identify organics and possible biological compounds on Mars. In the process of characterizing mass spectrometer size, weight, and power consumption, the use of pulse counting was considered for ion detection. Pulse counting has advantages over analog-mode amplification of the electron multiplier signal. Some advantages are reduced size of electronic components, low power consumption, ability to remotely characterize detector performance, and avoidance of analog circuit noise. The use of pulse counting as a detection method with ion trap instruments is relatively rare. However, with the recent development of high performance electrical components, this detection method is quite suitable and can demonstrate significant advantages over analog methods. Methods A prototype quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer with an internal electron ionization source was used as a test setup to develop and evaluate the pulse-counting method. The anode signal from the electron multiplier was preamplified. The an1plified signal was fed into a fast comparator for pulse-level discrimination. The output of the comparator was fed directly into a Xilinx FPGA development board. Verilog HDL software was written to bin the counts at user-selectable intervals. This system was able to count pulses at rates in the GHz range. The stored ion count nun1ber per bin was transferred to custom ion trap control software. Pulse-counting mass spectra were compared with mass spectra obtained using the standard analog-mode ion detection. Prelin1inary Data Preliminary mass spectra have been obtained for both analog mode and pulse-counting mode under several sets of instrument operating conditions. Comparison of the spectra revealed better peak shapes for pulse-counting mode. Noise levels are as good as, or better than, analog-mode detection noise levels. To artificially force ion pile-up conditions, the ion trap was overfilled and ions were ejected at very high scan rates. Pile-up of ions was not significant for the ion trap under investigation even though the ions are ejected in so-called 'ion-micro packets'. It was found that pulse counting mode had higher dynamic range than analog mode, and that the first amplification stage in analog mode can distort mass peaks. The inherent speed of the pulse counting method also proved to be beneficial to ion trap operation and ion ejection characterization. Very high scan rates were possible with pulse counting since the digital circuitry response time is so much smaller than with the analog method. Careful investigation of the pulse-counting data also allowed observation of the applied resonant ejection frequency during mass analysis. Ejection of ion micro packets could be clearly observed in the binned data. A second oscillation frequency, much lower than the secular frequency, was also observed. Such an effect was earlier attributed to the oscillation of the total plasma cloud in the ion trap. While the components used to implement pulse counting are quite advanced, due to their prevalence in consumer electronics, the cost of this detection system is no more than that of an analog mode system. Total pulse-counting detection system electronics cost is under $250

Van Amerom, Friso H.↗

Characterization and prediction of the electromechanical wear of contact tips during wire arc additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

Here, this study seeks to better understand the degradation of the contact tip with respect to WAAM for a 316L wire electrode as well as explore methods of monitoring the contact tip state from process data. The contact tip, a consumable component, positions the wire and serves as the electrical contact surface between the wire electrode and the welding power supply. The wear of the contact tip was characterized in terms of material loss and material contamination for a set of tips worn to discrete levels as measured by the amount of wire fed or arc time. Geometrical characterization found a 49% increase in the bore exit area at 180 meters of wire fed. Machine learning models were developed to predict the relative bore exit area of the contact tip from arc-based process data and a random forest classifier exhibited favorable performance with a cross-validated f1-score of 0.84. The regression architecture implemented a multi-layer perceptron with the ability to predict the relative exit area with an $R^2$ score of 0.75. Key features used in the prediction include the standard deviation of the voltage and the time between shorts.

Contact tip wear↗

Spatiotemporal predictions of toxic urban plumes using deep learning

Industrial accidents, chemical spills, and structural fires can release large amounts of harmful materials that disperse into urban atmospheres and impact populated areas. Computer models are typically used to predict the transport of toxic plumes by solving fluid dynamical equations. However, these models can be computationally expensive due to the need for many grid cells to simulate turbulent flow and resolve individual buildings and streets. In emergency response situations, alternative methods are needed that can run quickly and adequately capture important spatiotemporal features. Here, we present a novel deep learning model called ST-GasNet inspired by the mathematical equations that govern the behavior of plumes as they disperse through the atmosphere. ST-GasNet learns the spatiotemporal dependencies from a limited set of temporal sequences of ground-level toxic urban plumes generated by a high-resolution large eddy simulation model. On independent sequences, ST-GasNet accurately predicts the late-time spatiotemporal evolution, given the early-time behavior as an input, even when a building splits a large plume into smaller plumes. By incorporating large-scale wind boundary condition information, ST-GasNet achieves a prediction accuracy of at least 90% on test data for the entire prediction period.

Civil and Environmental Engineering↗

Analysis and flight evaluation of a small, fixed-wing aircraft equipped with hinged plate spoilers

The results of a four phase effort to evaluate the application of hinged plate spoilers/dive brakes to a small general aviation aircraft are presented. The test vehicle was a single engine light aircraft modified with an experimental set of upper surface spoilers and lower surface dive brakes similar to the type used on sailplanes. The lift, drag, stick free stability, trim, and dynamic response characteristics of four different spoiler/dive brake configurations were determined. Tests also were conducted, under a wide range of flight conditions and with pilots of various experience levels, to determine the most favorable methods of spoiler control and to evaluate how spoilers might best be used during the approach and landing task. The effects of approach path angle, approach airspeed, and pilot technique using throttle/spoiler integrated control were investigated for day, night, VFR, and IFR approaches and landings. The test results indicated that spoilers offered significant improvements in the vehicle's performance and flying qualities for all elements of the approach and landing task, provided a suitable method of control was available.

Olcott, J. W.↗

Limits on cold dark matter cosmologies from new anisotropy bounds on the cosmic microwave background

A self-consistent method is presented for comparing theoretical predictions of and observational upper limits on CMB anisotropy. New bounds on CDM cosmologies set by the UCSB South Pole experiment on the 1 deg angular scale are presented. An upper limit of 4.0 x 10 to the -5th is placed on the rms differential temperature anisotropy to a 95 percent confidence level and a power of the test beta = 55 percent. A lower limit of about 0.6/b is placed on the density parameter of cold dark matter universes with greater than about 3 percent baryon abundance and a Hubble constant of 50 km/s/Mpc, where b is the bias factor, equal to unity only if light traces mass.

Vittorio, Nicola↗

Input Decimated Ensembles

Using an ensemble of classifiers instead of a single classifier has been shown to improve generalization performance in many pattern recognition problems. However, the extent of such improvement depends greatly on the amount of correlation among the errors of the base classifiers. Therefore, reducing those correlations while keeping the classifiers' performance levels high is an important area of research. In this article, we explore input decimation (ID), a method which selects feature subsets for their ability to discriminate among the classes and uses them to decouple the base classifiers. We provide a summary of the theoretical benefits of correlation reduction, along with results of our method on two underwater sonar data sets, three benchmarks from the Probenl/UCI repositories, and two synthetic data sets. The results indicate that input decimated ensembles (IDEs) outperform ensembles whose base classifiers use all the input features; randomly selected subsets of features; and features created using principal components analysis, on a wide range of domains.

Tumer, Kagan↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Transfer Learning Trained LSTM Models for Household Load Profile Forecasting

Grid edge renewable energy resources, such as rooftop solar photovoltaics, closely interact with consumer load profiles. Therefore, forecasting future electricity demand, ideally at the individual household level, is indispensable. In this paper, we present a transfer learning enhanced household load profile forecasting method. First, we tune a long short-term memory forecasting model to perform day-ahead prediction of household electricity load profiles. Then we improve these individualized models using transfer learning, and we use k-means clustering to create optimal source data sets. We find average improvements of 4.38% (largest improvement of 10.71%) when the entire data set was used to train the source model and 2.45% (largest improvement of 11.57%) in the mean absolute error when households were first clustered and used to train separate source models for each cluster. We find that transfer learning with clustered data can effectively boost the forecasting performance of the LSTM models. We use realistic household power measurements for 148 real residential households in Austin, Texas.

deep learning↗

Comparison Study of Conventional and Adaptive Mesh Refinement in Organic Material Decomposition Models

This study compares conventional mesh refinement techniques, specifically Uniform Mesh Refinement (UMR), with a new Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) method, applied to Organic Material Decomposition (OMD) models. The proposed benefit of AMR is that only areas that require refinement, based on minimizing a specific field gradient, are refined thus decreasing model wall time compared to conventional UMR methods. This work specifically focuses on comparing UMR and AMR methods on decomposing (both No-Flow and Porous-Flow material models) Polymeric Methylene Diisocyanate (PMDI) polyurethane foam. Throughout the work, the geometry increased in complexity to assess the refinement methods performance at varying levels geometric intricacy. While AMR has been shown to work well in a variety of applications, the UMR approach proved to be computationally faster, for many of the geometries and foam decomposition models, than AMR. However, it was observed that at higher levels of refinement, greater than 3 UMR, AMR begins to be computationally better. Additionally, the settings used to perform AMR greatly impact its performance, and lessons learned, in terms of OMD models, are shared. Due to physics involved in material decomposition, specifically the evolution of state variables, these problems don’t fully benefit from the advantages of AMR.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A search for fast planetary-scale instabilities in the equatorial stratosphere

A method proposed by Salby for computing space-time Fourier transforms of asynoptic satellite data has been applied to stratospheric brightness temperature measurements from January and February 1979 in a search for two fast-moving low-wavenumber instabilities predicted in a numerical study by Lynch. The method is capable of producing spectra down to periods of approximately one day with no distortion due to the asynopticity of the data. No spectral peaks corresponding to the predicted modes were found; taking the noise level as the upper limit for their amplitudes at the altitudes observed, an upper limit of approximately 0.6 to 1.2 degrees Kelvin may be set for their peak amplitudes near the mesopause.

Lait, Leslie R.↗

Defining Exercise Performance Metrics for Flight Hardware Development

The space industry has prevailed over numerous design challenges in the spirit of exploration. Manned space flight entails creating products for use by humans and the Johnson Space Center has pioneered this effort as NASA's center for manned space flight. NASA Astronauts use a suite of flight exercise hardware to maintain strength for extravehicular activities and to minimize losses in muscle mass and bone mineral density. With a cycle ergometer, treadmill, and the Resistive Exercise Device available on the International Space Station (ISS), the Space Medicine community aspires to reproduce physical loading schemes that match exercise performance in Earth s gravity. The resistive exercise device presents the greatest challenge with the duty of accommodating 20 different exercises and many variations on the core set of exercises. This paper presents a methodology for capturing engineering parameters that can quantify proper resistive exercise performance techniques. For each specified exercise, the method provides engineering parameters on hand spacing, foot spacing, and positions of the point of load application at the starting point, midpoint, and end point of the exercise. As humans vary in height and fitness levels, the methodology presents values as ranges. In addition, this method shows engineers the proper load application regions on the human body. The methodology applies to resistive exercise in general and is in use for the current development of a Resistive Exercise Device. Exercise hardware systems must remain available for use and conducive to proper exercise performance as a contributor to mission success. The astronauts depend on exercise hardware to support extended stays aboard the ISS. Future plans towards exploration of Mars and beyond acknowledge the necessity of exercise. Continuous improvement in technology and our understanding of human health maintenance in space will allow us to support the exploration of Mars and the future of space exploration.

Beyene, Nahon M.↗

Requirement Development Process and Tools

Requirements capture the system-level capabilities in a set of complete, necessary, clear, attainable, traceable, and verifiable statements of need. Requirements should not be unduly restrictive, but should set limits that eliminate items outside the boundaries drawn, encourage competition (or alternatives), and capture source and reason of requirement. If it is not needed by the customer, it is not a requirement. They establish the verification methods that will lead to product acceptance. These must be reproducible assessment methods.

Tools↗