Results for “Methods:statistical” — Page 28

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of threshold parameters on infrared segmentation methods for porosity detection in electron beam powder bed fusion

In-situ process monitoring has seen significant interest in additive manufacturing to address qualification and certification goals. This is especially prevalent in metal powder bed fusion processes such as electron beam powder bed fusion (PBF-EB), with layer-wise infrared imaging being commonly used to detect defects. Here, this work compares two different segmentation methods (static thresholding and statistical thresholding) used for detecting porosity from in-situ infrared imaging data for PBF-EB. Samples were manufactured at a variety of focus offset values to induce porosity. Then, the segmented infrared images were compared to ex-situ X-ray computed tomography scans, which served as a ground-truth reference for objective evaluation. Through this analysis framework, the influential parameters, static threshold and N-value (number of standard deviations above the mean pixel value), respectively, for both image segmentation methods were analyzed and compared for their effects on porosity detection. With optimal parameter settings, the two methods had similar porosity detection performance, but the statistical method performed better under a larger variety of parameter settings.

Infrared imaging↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-659: Quantitative Evaluation of Patient Setup Accuracy of Stereotactic Radiotherapy with the Frameless 6D-ExacTrac System Using Statistical Modeling

Purpose: To evaluate patient setup accuracy and quantify individual and cumulative positioning uncertainties associated with different hardware and software components of the stereotactic radiotherapy (SRS/SRT) with the frameless-6D-ExacTrac system. Methods: A statistical model was used to evaluate positioning uncertainties of the different components of SRS/SRT treatment with the BrainLAB 6D-ExacTrac system using the positioning shifts of 35 patients having cranial lesions (49 total lesions treated in 1, 3, 5 fractions). All these patients were immobilized with rigid head-and-neck masks, simulated with BrainLAB-localizer and planned with iPlan treatment planning system. Infrared imaging (IR) was used initially to setup patients. Then, stereoscopic x-ray images (XC) were acquired and registered to corresponding digitally-reconstructed-radiographs using bony-anatomy matching to calculate 6D-translational and rotational shifts. When the shifts were within tolerance (0.7mm and 1°), treatment was initiated. Otherwise corrections were applied and additional x-rays were acquired (XV) to verify that patient position was within tolerance. Results: The uncertainties from the mask, localizer, IR-frame, x-ray imaging, MV and kV isocentricity were quantified individually. Mask uncertainty (Translational: Lateral, Longitudinal, Vertical; Rotational: Pitch, Roll, Yaw) was the largest and varied with patients in the range (−1.05−1.50mm, −5.06–3.57mm, −5.51−3.49mm; −1.40−2.40°, −1.24−1.74°, and −2.43−1.90°) obtained from mean of XC shifts for each patient. Setup uncertainty in IR positioning (0.88,2.12,1.40mm, and 0.64,0.83,0.96°) was extracted from standard-deviation of XC. Systematic uncertainties of the localizer (−0.03,−0.01,0.03mm, and −0.03,0.00,−0.01°) and frame (0.18,0.25,−1.27mm,−0.32,0.18, and 0.47°) were extracted from means of all XV setups and mean of all XC distributions, respectively. Uncertainties in isocentricity of the MV radiotherapy machine were (0.27,0.24,0.34mm) and kV-imager (0.15,−0.4,0.21mm). Conclusion: A statistical model was developed to evaluate the individual and cumulative systematic and random uncertainties induced by the different hardware and software components of the 6D-ExacTrac-system. The immobilization mask was associated with the largest positioning uncertainty.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Measurement of spleen fat on MRI-proton density fat fraction arises from reconstruction of noise

Purpose: This study compares splenic proton density fat fraction (PDFF) measured using confounder-corrected chemical shift-encoded (CSE)-MRI to magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in human patients at 3T. Methods: This was a prospectively designed ancillary study to various previously described single-center studies performed in adults and children with known or suspected nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Patients underwent magnitude-based MRI (MRI-M), complex-based MRI (MRI-C), high signal-to-noise variants (Hi-SNR MRI-M and Hi-SNR MRI-C), and MRS at 3T for spleen PDFF estimation. PDFF from CSE-MRI methods were compared to MRS-PDFF using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Demographics were summarized descriptively. Spearman’s rank correlations were computed pairwise between CSE-MRI methods. Individual patient measurements were plotted for qualitative assessment. A significance level of 0.05 was used. Results: Forty-seven patients (20 female, 27 male) including 12 adults (median 55 years old) and 35 children (median 12 years old). Median PDFF estimated by MRS, MRI-M, Hi-SNR MRI-M, MRI-C, and Hi-SNR MRI-C was 1.0, 2.3, 1.9, 2.2, and 2.0%. The four CSE-MRI methods estimated statistically significant higher spleen PDFF values compared to MRS (p < 0.0001 for all). Pairwise associations in spleen PDFF values measured by different CSE-MRI methods were weak, with the highest Spearman’s rank correlations being 0.295 between MRI-M and Hi-SNR MRI-M; none were significant after correction for multiple comparisons. No qualitative relationship was observed between PDFF measurements among the various methods. Conclusion: Overestimation of PDFF by CSE-MRI compared to MRS and poor agreement between related CSE-MRI methods suggest that non-zero PDFF values in human spleen are artifactual.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-AB-204-11: Development of a Nuclear Medicine Dosimetry Module for the GPU-Based Monte Carlo Code ARCHER

Purpose: To develop a nuclear medicine dosimetry module for the GPU-based Monte Carlo code ARCHER. Methods: We have developed a nuclear medicine dosimetry module for the fast Monte Carlo code ARCHER. The coupled electron-photon Monte Carlo transport kernel included in ARCHER is built upon the Dose Planning Method code (DPM). The developed module manages the radioactive decay simulation by consecutively tracking several types of radiation on a per disintegration basis using the statistical sampling method. Optimization techniques such as persistent threads and prefetching are studied and implemented. The developed module is verified against the VIDA code, which is based on Geant4 toolkit and has previously been verified against OLINDA/EXM. A voxelized geometry is used in the preliminary test: a sphere made of ICRP soft tissue is surrounded by a box filled with water. Uniform activity distribution of I-131 is assumed in the sphere. Results: The self-absorption dose factors (mGy/MBqs) of the sphere with varying diameters are calculated by ARCHER and VIDA respectively. ARCHER’s result is in agreement with VIDA’s that are obtained from a previous publication. VIDA takes hours of CPU time to finish the computation, while it takes ARCHER 4.31 seconds for the 12.4-cm uniform activity sphere case. For a fairer CPU-GPU comparison, more effort will be made to eliminate the algorithmic differences. Conclusion: The coupled electron-photon Monte Carlo code ARCHER has been extended to radioactive decay simulation for nuclear medicine dosimetry. The developed code exhibits good performance in our preliminary test. The GPU-based Monte Carlo code is developed with grant support from the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering through an R01 grant (R01EB015478)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The development and application of the stirred‐reactor coupon analysis (SRCA) test method

A new technique, termed the stirred‐reactor coupon analysis (SRCA) method, has been developed to measure the rate of glass dissolution in forward‐rate conditions. Monolithic glass coupons are partially masked with an inert material before placement in a large volume of well‐mixed solution with known chemistry and temperature for a predetermined duration. After the test, the mask is removed, and the difference in step height between the protected area and the exposed corroded portions of the sample coupon is measured to determine the extent of glass dissolution. The step height is converted to a rate measurement using the test duration and glass density. Test parameters such as sample surface preparation and test duration were evaluated to determine their effects on the measured rates. Additionally, results from an interlaboratory study (ILS) consisting of 12 laboratories from 11 different institutions are presented, where each laboratory performed 12 independent tests. When removing experimental outlier data, the 95% reproducibility limits for the SRCA method has no statistical difference with previously published standardized test methods used to determine the forward rate of glass dissolution. Overall, this paper describes steps necessary to perform the test method and provides the statistical calculations to evaluate test accuracy.

chemical durability↗

DOE OSTI2022

How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?

Abstract We present an intercomparison of a suite of high‐resolution downscaled climate projections based on a six‐member General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble from Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs have been downscaled using dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques based on two meteorological reference observations over the conterminous United States. We use the regional climate model, RegCM4, for dynamical downscaling, double bias correction constructed analogs method for statistical downscaling, and Daymet and Livneh datasets as the reference observations for statistical training and bias‐correction. We evaluate the performances of downscaled data in both historical and future periods under the SSP585 scenario. While dynamical downscaling improves the simulation of some performance evaluation indices, it adds an extra bias in others, highlighting the need for statistical correction before its use in impact assessments. Downscaled datasets after bias‐correction compare exceptionally well with observations. However, the choice of downscaling techniques and the underlying reference observations influence the hydroclimate characteristics of downscaled data. For instance, the statistical downscaling generally preserves the GCMs climate change signal but overestimates the frequency of hot extremes. Similarly, simulated future changes are sensitive to the choice of reference observations, particularly for precipitation extremes that exhibit a higher projected increase in the ensembles trained and/or corrected by Daymet than Livneh. Overall, these results demonstrate that multiple factors, including downscaling techniques and reference observations, can substantially influence the outcome of downscaled climate projections and stress the need for a comprehensive understanding of such method‐based uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-A-201-00: Anne and Donald Herbert Distinguished Lectureship On Modern Statistical Modeling

Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Simulation of solute transport through heterogeneous networks: analysis using the method of moments and the statistics of local transport characteristics

We used a time domain random walk approach to simulate passive solute transport in networks. In individual pores, solute transport was modeled as a combination of Poiseuille flow and Taylor dispersion. The solute plume data were interpreted via the method of moments. Analysis of the first and second moments showed that the longitudinal dispersivity increased with increasing coefficient of variation of the pore radii CV and decreasing pore coordination number Z. The third moment was negative and its magnitude grew linearly with time, meaning that the simulated dispersion was intrinsically non-Fickian. The statistics of the Eulerian mean fluid velocities $\hat{u}_i$, the Taylor dispersion coefficients $\hat{D}_i$ and the transit times $\hat{t}_i$ were very complex and strongly affected by CV and Z. In particular, the probability of occurrence of negative velocities grew with increasing CV and decreasing Z. Hence, backward and forward transit times had to be distinguished. The high-τ branch of the transit-times probability curves had a power law form associated to non-Fickian behavior. However, the exponent was insensitive to pore connectivity, although variations of Z affected the third moment growth. Thus, we conclude that both the low- and high-τ branches played a role in generating the observed non-Fickian behavior.

Li, Min↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nonparametric Multiparticle Set Methods for Interpreting Environmental Samples

Collection and analysis of environmental samples is commonly used by a range of stakeholders in nuclear safeguards and security contexts. While the ubiquity of samples and their transport in the environment allow regular collection, developing and demonstrating methods for analyzing these samples is difficult. In this work, an environmental sample consists of a set of one or more individual particles. Recent advances in reactor simulation have allowed us to generate data that are more representative of real-world environmental samples, enabling statistically defensible method development and testing. The most notable of these advances is a drastic increase in the number of material depletion regions, which allows our simulations to capture the variation in isotopic composition seen at length scales consistent with environmental samples. Traditional approaches for handling multiparticle samples treat each particle in the sample individually, estimating the quantity of interest (e.g., core-average burnup) resulting from measurement and analysis of signatures (e.g., nuclide assays) from each individual particle. Individual estimates are then averaged to generate a single estimate of the quantity of interest over the entire sample. In this presentation, we introduce two novel approaches for interpreting environmental samples that comprise of multiple particles: (1) the Quantile-Quantile Comparator, which uses a multivariate generalization of quantile-quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, and (2) the Set Transformer, an attention-based neural network module designed to model interactions among elements (particles) in the input set (sample). Statistically representative sampling cannot be guaranteed as samples are passively collected and are beholden to what particles are available in the environment. These new analysis methods for set-input problems are expected to be more robust than traditional approaches to issues of sampling bias where particles are not uniformly distributed throughout regions of interest, as well as generally outperform traditional approaches by jointly considering all elements in the set. We will present results comparing the performance of traditional single particle approaches and the novel Quantile-Quantile Comparator and Set Transformer for interpretation of simulated environmental samples.

Phathanapirom, Birdy↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-A-201-01: Memorial Introduction

Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-A-201-02: Modern Statistical Modeling

Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and may be remembered for his critique of the National Academy of Sciences BEIR III report (stating that their methodology “imposes a Delphic quality to the .. risk estimates”.) This led to his appointment as a member of the BEIR V committee. Don presented refresher courses at the AAPM, ASTRO and RSNA meetings and was active in the AAPM as a member or chair of several committees. He was the principal author of AAPM Report 43, which is essentially a critique of established clinical studies prior to 1992. He was co-editor of the Proceedings of many symposia on Time, Dose and Fractionation held in Madison, Wisconsin. He received the AAPM lifetime Achievement award in 2004. Don’s second wife of 46 years, Ann, predeceased him and he is survived by daughters Hillary and Emily, son John and two grandsons. Don was a true gentleman with a unique and erudite writing style illuminated by pithy quotations. If he had a fault it was, perhaps, that he did not realize how much smarter he was than the rest of us. This presentation draws heavily on a biography and video interview in the History and Heritage section of the AAPM website. The quote is his own. Andrzej Niemierko: Statistical modeling plays an essential role in modern medicine for quantitative evaluation of the effect of treatment. This session will feature an overview of statistical modeling techniques used for analyzing the many types of research data and an exploration of recent advances in new statistical modeling methodologies. Learning Objectives: To learn basics of statistical modeling methodology. To discuss statistical models that are frequently used in radiation oncology To discuss advanced modern statistical modeling methods and applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Similarity of the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate distribution in the upper mixed layer of the tropical Indian Ocean

Turbulence within the upper ocean mixed layer plays a key role in various physical, biological, and chemical processes. Between September and November 2011, a dataset of 570 vertical profiles of the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate, as well as conventional hydrological and meteorological data, were collected in the upper layer of the tropical Indian Ocean. These data were used to statistically analyze the vertical distribution of the TKE dissipation rate in the mixed layer. The arithmetic-mean method made the statistical TKE dissipation rate profile more scattered than the median and geometric-mean methods. The statistical TKE dissipation rate were respectively scaled by the surface buoyancy flux and the TKE dissipation rate at the mixed-layer base. It was found that the TKE dissipation rate scaled by that at the mixed-layer base exhibited better similarity characteristics than that scaled by the surface buoyancy flux, whether the stability parameter D/|L MO | was greater or less than 10, indicating that the TKE dissipation rate at the mixed-layer base is a better characteristic scaling parameter for reflecting the intrinsic structure of the TKE dissipation rate in the mixed layer, where D and L MO are respectively the mixed-layer thickness and the Monin-Obukhov length scale. The parameterization of the TKE dissipation rate at the mixed-layer base on the shear-driven dissipation rate and the surface buoyancy flux was further explored. It was found that the TKE dissipation rate at the mixed-layer base could be well fitted by a linear combination of three terms: the wind-shear-driven dissipation rate, the surface buoyancy flux, and a simple nonlinear coupling term of these two.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

From chiral effective field theory to perturbative QCD: A Bayesian model mixing approach to symmetric nuclear matter

Constraining the equation of state (EOS) of strongly interacting, dense matter is the focus of intense experimental, observational, and theoretical effort. Chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT ) can describe the EOS between the typical densities of nuclei and those in the outer cores of neutron stars, while perturbative QCD (pQCD) can be applied to properties of deconfined quark matter, both with quantified theoretical uncertainties. However, describing the full range of densities in between with a single EOS that has well-quantified uncertainties is a challenging problem. Bayesian multimodel inference from 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD can help bridge the gap between the two theories. In this work, we introduce a correlated Bayesian model mixing framework that uses a Gaussian process (GP) to assimilate different information into a single QCD EOS for symmetric nuclear matter. The present implementation uses a stationary GP to infer this mixed EOS solely from the EOSs of 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD while accounting for the truncation errors of each theory. The GP is trained on the pressure as a function of number density in the low- and high-density regions where 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD are, respectively, valid. We impose priors on the GP kernel hyperparameters to suppress unphysical correlations between these regimes. This, together with the assumption of stationarity, results in smooth 𝜒⁢EFT-to-pQCD curves for both the pressure and the speed of sound. We show that using uncorrelated mixing requires uncontrolled extrapolation of at least one of 𝜒⁢EFT or pQCD into regions where the perturbative series breaks down and leads to an acausal EOS. Here, we also discuss extensions of this framework to nonstationary and less differentiable GP kernels, its future application to neutron-star matter, and the incorporation of additional constraints from nuclear theory, experiment, and multimessenger astronomy.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Inverse Prediction Using Functional Response Data

Inverse prediction models have commonly been developed to handle scalar data from physical experiments. However, it is not uncommon for data to be collected in functional form. When data are collected in functional form, it must be aggregated to fit the form of traditional methods, which often results in a loss of information. For expensive experiments, this loss of information can be costly. In this study, we introduce the functional inverse prediction (FIP) framework, a general approach which uses the full information in functional response data to provide inverse predictions with probabilistic prediction uncertainties obtained with the bootstrap. The FIP framework is a general methodology that can be modified by practitioners to accommodate many different applications and types of data. We demonstrate the framework, highlighting points of flexibility, with a simulation example and applications to weather data and to nuclear forensics. Results show how functional models can improve the accuracy and precision of predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Impact of global atmospheric reanalyses on statistical precipitation downscaling

Statistical downscaling based on a perfect prognosis approach often relies on global reanalyses to infer the statistical relationship between synoptic predictors and the local variable of interest, here daily precipitation. Nowadays, many reanalyses are available and their impact on the downscaled variable is not often considered. The present work assessed the impact of ten reanalyses on the performance of seven variants of analogue methods for statistical precipitation downscaling at 301 stations in Switzerland. Even though the study location is in a data-rich region, significant differences were found between reanalyses and their impact on the performance of the method can be even higher than the choice of the predictor variables. There was no single overall winner, but a selection of recommended reanalyses resulting in higher skill scores depending on the considered predictor variables. The impact of the output spatial resolution was assessed for different types of variables. Output resolutions below one degree were found to be often of low to no interest. Reanalyses with longer archives allow the pool of potential analogues to be increased, resulting in better performance. However, when adding variables affected by errors in a more distant past, the skill score decreased again. The use of multiple members from two reanalyses was also tested over a recent and a past period. The benefit of using members to increase the performance by better incorporating the uncertainties was found to be limited, and even problematic with methods using multiple analogy levels.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗