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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Demand Response Under Stochastic, Price-Dependent User Behavior

This letter focuses on price-based demand response (DR) implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented by price-dependent random variables, leveraging models and tools from the theory of stochastic optimization with decision-dependent distributions. The inherent epistemic uncertainty in the customers' responses renders open-loop, model-based DR strategies impractical. We propose a stochastic, feedback-based pricing strategy to compensate for estimation errors and uncertainty in customer response, establish theoretical results demonstrating the stability and near-optimality of the proposed approach, and validate its effectiveness through numerical simulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coupled Multiphysics Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Automotive Crashworthiness Applications

Considerable advances have been made in battery safety models, but achieving predictive accuracy across a wide range of conditions continues to be challenging. Interactions between dynamically evolving mechanical, electrical, and thermal state variables make model prediction difficult during mechanical abuse scenarios. In this study, we develop a physics-based modeling approach that allows for choosing between different mechanical and electrochemical models depending on the required level of analysis. We demonstrate the use of this approach to connect cell-level abuse response to electrode-level and particle-level transport phenomena. A pseudo-two-dimensional model and simplified single-particle models are calibrated to electrical-thermal cycling data and applied to mechanically induced short-circuit scenarios to understand how the choice of electrochemical model affects the model prediction under abuse scenarios. These models are implemented using user-defined subroutines on ls-dyna finite element software and can be coupled with existing automotive crash safety models.

analysis and design of components↗

DOE OSTI2024

State-to-State Molecular Reactions in the Ultracold Regime (Final Scientific Report)

We have achieved the proposed goal to experimentally probe the AB + CD and AB + C types of reactions with state-to-state resolution, which we also compared to advanced theoretical calculations to help elucidate the role of quantum mechanics in the processes of bond breakage and formation. Our approach uses reactants that are prepared at ultracold temperatures (< 1µK) such that the quantum effects of translational motion are an important factor. Specific example reactions, including the potassium-rubidium metathesis reaction KRb + KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 as well as the atom exchange reaction Rb + KRb → Rb2 + K, are chosen because the technology of quantum internal and motional state control of these types of molecules is particularly advanced. The results for the entire funding period are fruitful. For the majority of this grant, we have constructed a one-of-the-kind quantum degenerate gas apparatus that integrates ion detection and velocity map imaging capabilities, allowing us to explore the KRb + KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 bimolecular reaction in detail. Specifically, we first verified such a reaction indeed proceed at ultracold temperatures by direct detection of reaction products. We then mapped out the complete product state distribution, which was compared to a state-counting model based on statistical theory. Our results show an overall agreement with the statistical state counting model, but also reveal several deviating state-pairs. An exact quantum calculation for molecule-molecule collisions, that is needed to understand these deviations, is however beyond the current state-of-the-art. Beside scrutinizing the reaction products, we also directly observe the reaction intermediate complex, which was quite a surprise to us. The intermediate complexes are long-lived and can interact with the inferred light that we use to trap the ultracold gas. After molecule-molecule collisions, we then explored the more theoretically tractable Rb + KRb reaction, which is endothermic. Surprisingly, we observed an exceedingly long-lived KRb$^*_2$ collisional complexes, with our experimentally measured complex lifetime deviating from conventional theoretical calculations by five orders of magnitude. This discrepancy has motivated many explorations of possible underlying causes, though no model yet captures this phenomenon completely. In the final year and the work that continues today, we extend upon these atom-molecule collision experiments to explore the origin of the long-lived KRb$^*_2$ complex lifetime and develop means to control the outcome of the reaction complex. The 5-year funded work advanced our understanding of chemical reactions at the lowest possible temperatures and at the same time opened up many new questions that are beyond our initial imaginations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

STFM: Accurate Spatio-Temporal Fusion Model for Weather Forecasting

Meteorological prediction is crucial for various sectors, including agriculture, navigation, daily life, disaster prevention, and scientific research. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are constrained by their high computational resource requirements, while the accuracy of deep learning models remains suboptimal. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel deep learning-based model, the Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (STFM), designed to enhance the accuracy of meteorological predictions. Our model leverages Fifth-Generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data and introduces two key components: a spatiotemporal encoder module and a spatiotemporal fusion module. The spatiotemporal encoder integrates the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), effectively capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal fusion module employs a dual attention mechanism, decomposing spatial attention into global static attention and channel dynamic attention. This approach ensures comprehensive extraction of spatial features from meteorological data. The combination of these modules significantly improves prediction performance. Experimental results demonstrate that STFM excels in extracting spatiotemporal features from reanalysis data, yielding predictions that closely align with observed values. In comparative studies, STFM outperformed other models, achieving a 7% improvement in ground and high-altitude temperature predictions, a 5% enhancement in the prediction of the u/v components of 10 m wind speed, and an increase in the accuracy of potential height and relative humidity predictions by 3% and 1%, respectively. This enhanced performance highlights STFM’s potential to advance the accuracy and reliability of meteorological forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

OmicsMLMentor: A Web Application for Guided Machine Learning Analysis of Omics Data

Expression-based omics technologies (e.g. proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, etc.) increasingly rely on supervised and unsupervised machine learning (ML) models to find key biomolecules distinguishing conditions, identify natural groupings in biological data, or generate predictions for outcomes of interest. Fitting ML models to omics data presents several challenges, including handling missing data, selecting a normalization method, choosing a valid model, and optimizing hyperparameters, all requiring statistical programming skills to address these challenges. Thus, the open-source web application SLOPE was designed to lower the barrier to ML modeling for omics data. SLOPE supports the fitting of 15 ML models (10 supervised and 5 unsupervised) tailored to omics datasets, such as proteomics, metabolomics, lipidomics, and transcriptomics. SLOPE offers several omics-specific features, including methods for handling missingness (imputation, conversion, removal), normalization tests, ranking of models based on the structure of a user’s data and user input, and optimal hyperparameter selections using cross-validation splits. By streamlining ML workflows for omics analysis, SLOPE address critical gaps in existing online web tools, facilitating a broader adoption of these models for omics research. Here, SLOPE is applied to data from a lignin exposure study to highlight the workflow for fitting both supervised and unsupervised models to data.

lipidomics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure‐Aware Representation Learning for Effective Performance Prediction

ABSTRACT Application performance is a function of several unknowns stemming from the interactions between the application, runtime, OS, and underlying hardware, making it challenging to model performance using deep learning techniques, especially without a large labeled dataset. Collecting such labeled longitudinal datasets can take weeks. Intuitively, developers could save analysis time during code development by taking a comparative approach between multiple applications. However, the unknown dynamic interactions between applications and execution environments make it difficult for deep learning‐based models to predict the performance of new applications. In this paper, we address these problems by presenting a labeled dataset for the community and taking a comparative analysis approach to explore the source code differences between different correct implementations of the same problem. This paper assesses the feasibility of using purely static information, for example, Abstract Syntax Tree (AST), of applications to predict performance change based on code structure. We evaluate several deep learning‐based representation learning techniques for source code and propose an architecture for the tree‐based Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) models to discover latent representations for a source code's hierarchical structure. We demonstrate that our proposed architecture enables feed‐forward predictive models to predict change in performance using source code with up to 84% accuracy.

Ramadan, Tarek [Department of Computer Science Tex↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unpacking model inadequacy: The quantification of silver release from TRISO fuel by considering empirical and mechanistic approaches

Increasing adoption of the proposed tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel for both advanced and existing reactors makes it critical to assess and address any uncertainties and inadequacies of TRISO fission product release models. Model inadequacy stems from simplifications made to the computational model when compared to the experiments. The modeling and simulation efforts conducted using the BISON fuel performance code, along with the experimental campaigns carried out under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, afford a unique opportunity to conduct a rigorous modeling inadequacy assessment within the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. Here, this study compares the standard Bayesian framework against the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly represents modeling inadequacy, in regard to UQ for TRISO silver release models. For this purpose, both the traditional Arrhenius equation fitted to experimental data and the more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model, which considers microstructure information, are independently considered. Applying the inverse UQ process on the AGR-2 and -3/4 datasets revealed modeling inadequacy to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Experimental noise uncertainty is also significant; however, model parameter uncertainty can be considered negligible. Interestingly, both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model demonstrated similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For the forward predictive UQ, the KOH framework improved both the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties in comparison to the standard Bayesian framework. This is true for both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model. In comparing these modeling approaches, both demonstrated similar performance at the engineering scale, while the LLS-informed model expectedly outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These conclusions highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for modeling inadequacy in the UQ process, and reinforce the need for continuous refinement of physics-based models in order to address the modeling inadequacy.

Advanced reactors↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microscopy modality transfer of steel microstructures: Inferring scanning electron micrographs from optical microscopy using generative AI

Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is resource intensive, which limits its throughput in some applications. As an alternative, we propose applying computer vision and machine learning to generate high-quality synthetic SEM micrographs from micrographs obtained using light optical microscopy (LOM). Working with a correlated LOM/SEM dataset of dual-phase steel images, we test generative models of various architectures, including encoder-decoder networks, generative adversarial networks (GANs), and diffusion-based models. We find that the diffusion models significantly outperform other methods on both qualitative and quantitative assessments, while preserving key metallurgical meaning. This work establishes diffusion as the state-of-the-art for microscopy modality transfer and demonstrates the potential of AI-powered microscopy to enhance LOM with micron scale structural recreation.

Computer vision↗

DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic Dynamics Controls Coupling and Cluster Formation in Brush Particle Solids

Thermodynamics-based models predict the structure of polymer-grafted nanoparticles (PGNs) as well as their assembly behavior based on geometric parameters such as particle size, degree of polymerization, and density of grafted chains. The role of microscopic polymer dynamics, such as the mobility of repeat units in the melt state, in the evolution of the structure and properties remains unknown. Brillouin light spectroscopy (BLS), due to its capability to concurrently discern the local and global elastic properties of PGN assemblies, enables the probing of microscopic processes, such as brush interdigitation, sensitive to the annealing of the assembly. For poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA)-grafted silica (SiO 2 ) PGNs in the dry powder state and annealed above the glass transition temperature, BLS revealed fully reversible local elasticity, indicative of limited interdigitation between adjacent PGNs. This contrasts with polystyrene (PS)−SiO 2 analogs that displayed ready (and irreversible) fusion of brush layers during annealing. The retardation of brush interdigitation in PMMA-grafted systems is surprising, given the similar thermomechanical properties of both polymers, and is rationalized as the consequence of higher friction between PMMA repeats compared to PS. Microscopic dynamics thus has a profound impact on the kinetic path of structure (and property) evolution and thus should be considered during the processing of PGNs into functional hybrid materials.

chemical structure↗

DOE OSTI2024

A modular and extensible CHARMM-compatible model for all-atom simulation of polypeptoids

Peptoids (N-substituted glycines) are a class of sequence-defined synthetic peptidomimetic polymers with applications including drug delivery, catalysis, and biomimicry. Classical molecular simulations have been used to predict and understand the conformational dynamics of single chains and their self-assembly into morphologies including sheets, tubes, spheres, and fibrils. The CGenFF-NTOID model based on the CHARMM General Force Field has demonstrated success in accurate all-atom molecular modeling of peptoid structure and thermodynamics. Extension of this force field to new peptoid side chains has historically required reparameterization of side chain bonded interactions against ab initio data. This fitting protocol improves the accuracy of the force field but is also burdensome and precludes modular extensibility of the model to arbitrary peptoid sequences. In this work, we develop and demonstrate a Modular Side Chain CGenFF-NTOID (MoSiC-CGenFF-NTOID) as an extension of CGenFF-NTOID employing a modular decomposition of the peptoid backbone and side chain parameterizations, wherein arbitrary side chains within the large family of substituted methyl groups (i.e., –CH 3 , –CH 2 R, –CHRR', and –CRR'R") are directly ported from CGenFF. We validate this approach against ab initio calculations and experimental data to develop a MoSiC-CGenFF-NTOID model for all 20 natural amino acid side chains along with 13 commonly used synthetic side chains and present an extensible paradigm to efficiently determine whether a novel side chain can be directly incorporated into the model or whether refitting of the CGenFF parameters is warranted. We make the model freely available to the community along with a tool to perform automated initial structure generation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Twin Circuit Theory-Based Framework for Oscillation Event Analysis in Inverter-Dominated Power Systems With Case Study for Kaua‘i System

Here, this paper proposes a real-world oscillation event analysis framework for power systems that include inverter-based resources together with synchronous generators. Specifically, the proposed framework combines both measurement-and model-based techniques to readily identify potential oscillation sources, replay the oscillation event with numerical simulation, unveil the underlying oscillation mechanism, and suggest mitigation methods for a wide range of oscillation events. To strengthen the theoretical foundation of our analysis framework, this paper proposes a twin circuit theory that provides theoretical support for one key utilized but not well-proven measurement-based oscillation source identification method-Dissipating Energy Flow. Our twin circuit theory also shows that adopting well-tuned grid-forming inverters can be a potential mitigation method for oscillation events. Finally, the effectiveness of our proposed oscillation event analysis framework is demonstrated by addressing a real-world 18-20 Hz oscillation event in Kaua‘i's power system on November 21, 2021.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Captan+X Data Converter Integration

Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory's CAPTAN (Compact And Programmable daTa Acquisition Node) series provides a flexible hardware platform for data acquisition across a range of experiments and facilities. The latest iteration, CAPTAN+X, is built around a Kintex-7 FPGA supporting four FPGA Mezzanine Card (FMC) connections. As part of a broader laboratory effort to bring facility systems under a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) framework, CAPTAN+X is one of several systems slated to be incorporated into this modeling environment in the near term. A necessary step toward that goal is incorporating the platform's core functionality, which centers on integration with the LXD31K4 FMC, a data converter module combining dual AD9652 analog-to-digital converters and dual AD9142A digital-to-analog converters. Achieving compatibility required resolving pin-mapping conflicts between the LXD31K4's High Pin Count connector and the CAPTAN+X's available pin types, adapting a Board Support Project originally written for an UltraScale-class evaluation board to the Kintex-7 architecture, replacing incompatible primitives, restructuring clock distribution, and manually configuring chip initialization in place of an unsupported soft-processor-based approach. Functional verification of the ADC and DAC channels, followed by closed-loop testing combining both converters with real-time filtering, confirmed correct operation of the integrated system. These results establish a working hardware and firmware baseline for the CAPTAN+X platform, positioning it for future inclusion in the laboratory's growing MBSE modeling effort.

Espinoza, David [Illinois U., Urbana (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2026

CAPTAN+X Data Converter Integration

Espinoza, David [Illinois U., Urbana (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

adaptation models↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pulsar Movement Animation and its Corresponding Signal Visualization for Timing Source

The global positioning system, widely used for synchronization in energy systems, faces vulnerabilities, while Pulsars—natural cosmic clocks—offer long-term stability as potential backup timing sources. Existing research lacks sufficient exploration of Pulsar signal animation under astrophysical factors, limiting practical applications. This study establishes a mathematical model based on the rotation dynamics of dual-beam Pulsars and implements dynamic signal visualization through MATLAB. The model dynamically illustrates the relative motion between Pulsar beams and observers via timeline calculations, beam intensity modeling, and rotation matrix derivation. A case study on the millisecond Pulsar J1939+2134 reveals that observer angles influence signal peak timing, while beam widths determine signal duration, highlighting the critical role of parameter calibration for timing accuracy. Open-source code and animation results are publicly shared, providing tools for interdisciplinary research. This study validates the feasibility of Pulsar-based timing in energy systems, offering new insights to enhance synchronization robustness.

Wu, Ori [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326723410)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Reliability and Operational Efficiency of Small-Scale Hydroelectric Distributed Generation

Reliability and resilience are critical concerns for distributed generation (DG) at the rural electric level. The integration of renewable energy sources, such as small-scale hydroelectric distributed generators (hydro DGs), introduces operational challenges, particularly regarding aging infrastructure and grid stability. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven Machine Learning (ML) models and applications of Large Language Models (LLMs) offer promising solutions for optimizing DG operations and enhancing resilience. This paper explores AI-based models for improving efficiency, fault resolution, and outage mitigation in small-scale hydro DGs. Furthermore, it highlights the development of a centralized, AI-powered information portal for rural electric cooperatives and municipalities. The research evaluates hydro DG plant models and discusses the applicability of AI-powered question-answering tools for real-time operations, focusing on statistical data, load flow, voltage regulation, and generation power. The findings demonstrate AI’s potential to transform DG management to ensure greater stability and resilience in rural electric grids.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046↗

DOE OSTI2025

Micromechanical Surrogate Machine Learning Model for Creep Deformation Modeling

Process variability during the manufacture of gas turbine engine hot section components can significantly affect the material’s resulting microstructure. In casting, for instance, geometric variation within a component (thin sections versus thick sections, radial location) influences cooling rates and the resulting grain size. The high temperature creep response is known to be sensitive to grain size owing to a diffusional creep mechanism which occurs more readily along grain boundaries. Microstructural variation correspondingly drives mechanical behavior which propagates into component scale performance uncertainty. These factors are essential when planning inspection, maintenance, and repair strategies within a reliability framework. These benefits provide opportunities to increase overall energy efficiency through refined margins. Critically, there is an opportunity to bolster existing data-driven reliability models using physics-driven process-structure-property relations. Here we present recent work establishing a framework for evaluating the probabilistic creep performance of high-temperature materials. A novel microstructure-sensitive crystal plasticity finite element model is established that captures both grain boundary and crystallographic deformation effects. The computationally expensive physics model is calibrated using a statistical approach and this high-fidelity model is subsequently used to train a computationally efficient machine learning surrogate model. The surrogate model is essential for sampling a large ensemble of simulated structure-property pair results. The ensemble data are then mined to extract salient trends to be incorporated into a microstructure-sensitive reliability model. The proposed approach represents a novel way to capture microstructure-sensitive trends from physics-based models within a modern reliability framework.

Fernandez-Zelaia, Patxi [ORNL]↗