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DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Decomposition Kinetics of 4,6‐Diamino‐5,7‐dinitro‐benzo‐furazan

This experimental study investigated the thermal decomposition kinetics of 4,6-diamino-5,7-dinitro-benzo-furazan (referred to as F1 hereafter)—an important decomposition product of 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB—a prototypical insensitive high explosive). Simultaneous differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), and mass spectrometry (MS) measurements were employed to determine the decomposition kinetics of F1 and to track the evolution of product gases. The DSC profiles were measured at 10 different heating rates between 0.025°C/min and 10°C/min. The measured exotherms were influenced by F1 melting at heating rates above 0.25°C/min, and corresponding changes in decomposition enthalpy and TGA mass-loss-rate profiles indicated a transition from solid-to-gas decomposition to an increasing contribution from liquid-to-gas decomposition. Analysis of low-heating-rate DSC data between 0.025°C/min and 0.17°C/min with the extended Prout–Tompkins model yielded an activation energy of 305 kJ/mol for solid-to-gas F1 decomposition, higher than previous values inferred from TATB decomposition models involving F1. This study provides the first direct experimental determination of the energy barrier for F1 decomposition. MS measurements showed that the major gaseous products matched species previously reported for TATB decomposition (e.g., CO 2 , HCN, C 2 N 2 , etc.), with water identified as the dominant product. Furthermore, these results provide important experimental constraints for improving chemical kinetics models of TATB decomposition and for predicting the reactivity, stability, and safety of TATB-based high explosives under long-term aging conditions and abnormal thermal environments.

4,6-Diamino-5,7-dinitro-benzo-furazan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Delving into the depths of NGC 3783 with XRISM

Using XRISM/Resolve 439 ks time-averaged spectra of the well-known Seyfert-1.5 active galactic nucleus (AGN) in NGC 3783, we investigated the nature of the Fe Kα emission line at 6.4 keV, the strongest and most common X-ray line observed in AGNs. Even the narrow component of the line is resolved with evident Fe Kα 1 (6.404 keV) and Kα 2 (6.391 keV) contributions with a 2:1 flux ratio, fully consistent with a neutral gas with negligible bulk velocity. The narrow and intermediate-width components have a full width at half maximum of 350 ± 50 km/s and 3510 ± 470 km/s, respectively, suggesting that they arise in the outer disk/torus and/or broad line region. We detect a 10% excess flux around 4–7 keV that is not described well by a symmetric Gaussian line but is consistent with a relativistically broadened emission line. In this study we took the simplest approach, modelling the asymmetric line as a single emission line (assuming neutral, He-like, or H-like iron) convolved with a relativistic disk line model. As expected, the inferred inclination angle (i) is highly sensitive to the assumed ionisation state and ranges between 17 and 44°. This model also constrains the black hole spin via the extent of the red wing: the required gravitational redshift in the fitted disk-line profile disfavours a non-spinning (Schwarzschild) black hole. The derived inner radius is close to the radius of the innermost stable circular orbit (rISCO) and is strongly correlated with the black hole spin. To better constrain the spin, we fixed the inner radius to r ISCO and derived a lower limit on the spin of a ≥ 0.29 at the 3σ confidence level. A Compton shoulder is detected in our data as well as a 2–3σ detection of the Cr Kα and Ni Kα lines.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Computing for AI-based Design and Optimization of Electric Motors

Knowledge-based artificial intelligence and hierarchical fuzzy logic offer an interpretable framework for electricvehicle motor preliminary design, but their computational burden grows with linguistic granularity and coupled design-space size. This paper presents a reduced quantum reformulation of the hierarchical fuzzy inference of air-gap flux density, a representative level-one motor-design parameter. Starting from the published electric-vehicle motor-design framework, a three-term fuzzy prototype is constructed from the original inference structure. The reduced model is then reformulated as a modular quantum register-oracle system, in which each hierarchical subrelation is encoded as a block oracle and evaluated through superpositionbased candidate-label testing. The proposed modular quantum formulation reproduces the reduced classical prototype after block fusion. A resource analysis shows that the reduced modular system requires seven qubits per block and twenty-two qubits in a straightforward four-block implementation. Finally, a crossovercomplexity model is derived to identify the regime in which quantum candidate search may become favorable relative to hierarchical fuzzy inference. The results show that no quantum advantage should be claimed for the present one-output reduced benchmark, but that a plausible crossover emerges for larger joint candidate spaces and higher linguistic granularity. The work therefore establishes a technically consistent starting point for future quantum-assisted electric-vehicle motor-design optimization.

Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)↗

DOE OSTI2019

Optimization of process models for determining volatility distribution and viscosity of organic aerosols from isothermal particle evaporation data

The composition of organic aerosol under different ambient conditions as well as their phase state have been a subject of intense study in recent years. One way to study particle properties is to measure the particle size shrinkage in a diluted environment at isothermal conditions. From these measurements it is possible to separate the fraction of low-volatility compounds from high-volatility compounds. In this work, we analyse and evaluate a method for obtaining particle composition and viscosity from measurements using process models coupled with input optimization algorithms. Two optimization methods, the Monte Carlo genetic algorithm and Bayesian inference, are used together with process models describing the dynamics of particle evaporation. The process model optimization scheme in inferring particle composition in a volatility-basis-set sense and composition-dependent particle viscosity is tested with artificially generated data sets and real experimental data. Optimizing model input so that the output matches these data yields a good match for the estimated quantities. Both optimization methods give equally good results when they are used to estimate particle composition to artificially test data. Finally, the timescale of the experiments and the initial particle size are found to be important in defining the range of values that can be identified for the properties from the optimization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Secular outflows from 3D MHD hypermassive neutron star accretion disc systems

Magnetized hypermassive neutron stars (HMNSs) have been proposed as a way for neutron star mergers to produce high electron fraction, high-velocity ejecta, as required by kilonova models to explain the observed light curve of GW170817. The HMNS drives outflows through neutrino energy deposition and mechanical oscillations, and raises the electron fraction of outflows through neutrino interactions before collapsing to a black hole (BH). Here, in this study, we perform 3D numerical simulations of HMNS–torus systems in ideal magnetohydrodynamics, using a leakage/absorption scheme for neutrino transport, the nuclear APR equation of state, and Newtonian self-gravity, with a pseudo-Newtonian potential added after BH formation. Due to the uncertainty in the HMNS collapse time, we choose two different parametrized times to induce collapse. We also explore two initial magnetic field geometries in the torus, and evolve the systems until the outflows diminish significantly ($\sim\!\! 1\!\! - \!\!2\ \mathrm{s}$). We find bluer, faster outflows as compared to equivalent BH–torus systems, producing M ∼ 10 −3 M ⊙ of ejecta with Y e ≥ 0.25 and v ≥ 0.25c by the simulation end. Approximately half the outflows are launched in disc winds at times $t\lesssim 500 \ \mathrm{ms}$, with a broad distribution of electron fractions and velocities, depending on the initial condition. The remaining outflows are thermally driven, characterized by lower velocities and electron fractions. Nucleosynthesis with tracer particles shows patterns resembling solar abundances in all models. Although outflows from our simulations do not match those inferred from two-component modelling of the GW170817 kilonova, self-consistent multidimensional detailed kilonova models are required to determine whether our outflows can power the blue kilonova.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Stochastic Stability of Deep Markov Models

Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models which are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models have not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, we present a novel stability analysis method and provide sufficient conditions of DMM's stochastic stability. The proposed stability analysis is based on the contraction of probabilistic maps modeled by deep neural networks. We make connections between the spectral properties of neural network's weights and different types of used activation function on the stability and overall dynamic behavior of DMMs with Gaussian distributions. Based on the theory, we propose a few practical methods for designing constrained DMMs with guaranteed stability. We empirically substantiate our theoretical results via intuitive numerical experiments using the proposed stability constraints.

Drgona, Jan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learning turbulent flows with generative models for super resolution and sparse flow reconstruction

Neural operators are promising surrogates for dynamical systems but when trained with standard L 2 losses they tend to oversmooth fine-scale turbulent structures. Here, we show that combining operator learning with generative modeling overcomes this limitation. We consider three practical turbulent-flow challenges where conventional neural operators fail: spatio-temporal super-resolution, forecasting, and sparse flow reconstruction. For Schlieren jet super-resolution, an adversarially trained neural operator (adv-NO) reduces the energy-spectrum error by 15 × while preserving sharp gradients at neural operator-like inference cost. For 3D homogeneous isotropic turbulence, adv-NO trained on only 160 timesteps from a single trajectory forecasts accurately for five eddy-turnover times and offers 114 × wall-clock speed-up at inference than the baseline diffusion-based forecasters, enabling near-real-time rollouts. For reconstructing cylinder wake flows from highly sparse Particle Tracking Velocimetry-like inputs, a conditional generative model infers full 3D velocity and pressure fields with correct phase alignment and statistics. These advances enable accurate reconstruction and forecasting at low compute cost, bringing near-real-time analysis and control within reach in experimental and computational fluid mechanics.

Fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining solar electron number density via neutrino flavor data at Borexino

Understanding the physics of the deep solar interior, and the more exotic environs of core-collapse supernovae (CCSN) and binary neutron-star (NS) mergers, is of keen interest in many avenues of research. To date, this physics is based largely on simulations via forward integration. While these simulations provide valuable constraints, it could be insightful to adopt the "inverse approach" as a point of comparison. Within this paradigm, parameters of the solar interior are not output based on an assumed model, but rather are inferred based on real data. Here, we take the specific case of solar electron number density, which historically is taken as output from the standard solar model. We show how one may arrive at an independent constraint on that density profile based on available neutrino flavor data from the Earth-based Borexino experiment. The inference technique's ability to offer a unique lens on physics can be extended to other datasets, and to analogous questions for CCSN and NS mergers, albeit with simulated data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning approach to fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering spectra

Fast analysis of collective Thomson scattering ion acoustic wave features using a deep convolutional neural network model is presented. The network was trained from spectra to predict the plasma parameters, including ion velocities, population fractions, and ion and electron temperatures. A fully kinetic particle-in-cell simulation was used to model a laboratory astrophysics experiment and simulate a diagnostic image of the ion acoustic wave feature. Network predictions were compared with Bayesian inference of the plasma model parameters for both the simulated and experimentally measured images. Both approaches were fairly accurate predicting the simulated image and the network predictions matched a good portion of the Bayesian results for the experimentally measured image. The Bayesian approach is more robust to noise and motivates future work to train deep learning models with realistic noise. The advantage of the deep learning model is making thousands of predictions in a few hundred milliseconds, compared to a few seconds to minutes per prediction for the optimization and Bayesian approaches presented here. The results demonstrate promising capabilities of deep learning models to analyze Thomson data orders of magnitude faster than conventional methods when using the neural network for standalone analysis. If more rigorous analysis is needed, neural network predictions can be used to quickly initialize other optimization methods and increase chances of success. This is especially useful when the dataset becomes very large or highly dimensional and manually refining initial conditions for the entire dataset are no longer tractable.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Inference for Integrating Yarrowia lipolytica Multiomics Datasets with Metabolic Modeling

Optimizing the metabolism of microbial cell factories for yields and titers is a critical step for economically viable production of bioproducts and biofuels. In this process, tuning the expression of individual enzymes to obtain the desired pathway flux is a challenging step, in which data from separate multiomics techniques must be integrated with existing biological knowledge to determine where changes should be made. Following a design-build-test-learn strategy, building on recent advances in Bayesian metabolic control analysis, we identify in this work key enzymes in the oleaginous yeast Yarrowia lipolytica that correlate with the production of itaconate by integrating a metabolic model with multiomics measurements. To this extent, we quantify the uncertainty for a variety of key parameters, known as flux control coefficients (FCCs), needed to improve the bioproduction of target metabolites and statistically obtain key correlations between the measured enzymes and boundary flux. Based on the top five significant FCCs and five correlated enzymes, our results show phosphoglycerate mutase, acetyl-CoA synthetase (ACSm), carbonic anhydrase (HCO3E), pyrophosphatase (PPAm), and homoserine dehydrogenase (HSDxi) enzymes in rate-limiting reactions that can lead to increased itaconic acid production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Modal Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates with Conjugate Last-Layer Estimation

As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data of multiple auxiliary modalities to support the modeling of a highly expensive quantity of interest have the potential to aid outer loop applications such as optimization, inverse problems, or sensitivity analyses when multi-modal data are available. We develop two multi-modal Bayesian neural network surrogate models and leverage conditionally conjugate distributions in the last layer to estimate model parameters using stochastic variational inference (SVI). We provide a method to perform this conjugate SVI estimation in the presence of partially missing observations. Here, we demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to unimodal surrogate models for both scalar and time series data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constraining Hamiltonians from chiral effective field theory with neutron-star data

Multi-messenger observations of neutron stars (NSs) and their mergers have placed strong constraints on the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). The EOS, in turn, depends on microscopic nuclear interactions that are described by nuclear Hamiltonians. These Hamiltonians are commonly derived within chiral effective field theory (EFT). Ideally, multi-messenger observations of NSs could be used to directly inform our understanding of EFT interactions, but such a direct inference necessitates millions of model evaluations. This is computationally prohibitive because each evaluation requires us to calculate the EOS from a Hamiltonian by solving the quantum many-body problem with methods such as auxiliary-field diffusion Monte Carlo (AFDMC), which provides very accurate and precise solutions but at a significant computational cost. Additionally, we need to solve the stellar structure equations for each EOS which further slows down each model evaluation by a few seconds. In this work, we combine emulators for AFDMC calculations of neutron matter, built using parametric matrix models, and for the stellar structure equations, built using multilayer perceptron neural networks, with the PyCBC data-analysis framework to enable a direct inference of coupling constants in an EFT Hamiltonian using multi-messenger observations of NSs. We find that astrophysical data can provide informative constraints on two-nucleon couplings despite the high densities probed in NS interiors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Correlated prompt fission data in transport simulations

Detailed information on the fission process can be inferred from the observation, modeling and theoretical understanding of prompt fission neutron and γ-ray observables. Beyond simple average quantities, the study of distributions and correlations in prompt data, e.g., multiplicity-dependent neutron and γ-ray spectra, angular distributions of the emitted particles, n -n, n - γ, and γ - γ correlations, can place stringent constraints on fission models and parameters that would otherwise be free to be tuned separately to represent individual fission observables. The FREYA and CGMF codes have been developed to follow the sequential emissions of prompt neutrons and γ rays from the initial excited fission fragments produced right after scission. Both codes implement Monte Carlo techniques to sample initial fission fragment configurations in mass, charge and kinetic energy and sample probabilities of neutron and γ emission at each stage of the decay. This approach naturally leads to using simple but powerful statistical techniques to infer distributions and correlations among many observables and model parameters. The comparison of model calculations with experimental data provides a rich arena for testing various nuclear physics models such as those related to the nuclear structure and level densities of neutron-rich nuclei, the γ-ray strength functions of dipole and quadrupole transitions, the mechanism for dividing the excitation energy between the two nascent fragments near scission, and the mechanisms behind the production of angular momentum in the fragments, etc. Beyond the obvious interest from a fundamental physics point of view, such studies are also important for addressing data needs in various nuclear applications. The inclusion of the FREYA and CGMF codes into the MCNP6.2 and MCNPX - PoliMi transport codes, for instance, provides a new and powerful tool to simulate correlated fission events in neutron transport calculations important in nonproliferation, safeguards, nuclear energy, and defense programs. Here, this review provides an overview of the topic, starting from theoretical considerations of the fission process, with a focus on correlated signatures. It then explores the status of experimental correlated fission data and current efforts to address some of the known shortcomings. Numerical simulations employing the FREYA and CGMF codes are compared to experimental data for a wide range of correlated fission quantities. The inclusion of those codes into the MCNP6.2 and MCNPX - PoliMi transport codes is described and discussed in the context of relevant applications. The accuracy of the model predictions and their sensitivity to model assumptions and input parameters are discussed. Lastly, a series of important experimental and theoretical questions that remain unanswered are presented, suggesting a renewed effort to address these shortcomings.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rapid assessment of the creep rupture life of metals: A model enabling experimental design

Prediction of the creep rupture life of engineering metals is critical for qualification and design of new materials. The use of long-term creep tests and the need to quantify the performance variability in a priori similar systems hinder the rapid creep assessment of a given material. Therefore, it is essential to develop methods that can extrapolate the long-term performance of alloys and the associated variability from short-term experiments. To this end, this study introduces a new model which enables the estimation of the rupture life of a material for a given stress and temperature. This model relies on two components. First, a new relation for the minimum creep rate (MCR) of materials is introduced. It includes a stress dependent stress exponent allowing the model to capture the variation of MCR across a wide range of temperatures and stresses. Second, employing the Monkman-Grant (MG) law, we establish a relation between stress, temperature and creep rupture life. Together, these two elements yield a new closed-form mathematical expression for the Larson Miller parameter as a function of stress and temperature. This expression captures the creep rupture time for many metals (Gr91, Copper, Gr122 and 347H) and compares favorably with alternate empirical approaches. The model is then used to assess the minimum duration of creep rates necessary to qualify the material up to 100000h. Furthermore, it is found that depending on the material system, creep tests as few as five limited to 5000 h for steels (Gr91, Gr122, 347H) and 100 h for copper are sufficient to model creep lifetimes. Finally, using a Bayesian inference-based approach to calibrate the model, we demonstrate that variability in rupture life can be captured via the quantification of the uncertainty in the model parameters and extrapolated from a limited number of short to moderately short creep tests; thereby paving the way for accelerated creep testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Protein structure determination using metagenome sequence data

Filling in the protein fold picture Fewer than a third of the 14,849 known protein families have at least one member with an experimentally determined structure. This leaves more than 5000 protein families with no structural information. Protein modeling using residue-residue contacts inferred from evolutionary data has been successful in modeling unknown structures, but it requires large numbers of aligned sequences. Ovchinnikov et al. augmented such sequence alignments with metagenome sequence data (see the Perspective by Söding). They determined the number of sequences required to allow modeling, developed criteria for model quality, and, where possible, improved modeling by matching predicted contacts to known structures. Their method predicted quality structural models for 614 protein families, of which about 140 represent newly discovered protein folds. Science , this issue p. 294 ; see also p. 248

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models

Emerging insights into factors responsible for soil organic matter stabilization and decomposition are being applied in a variety of contexts, but new tools are needed to facilitate the understanding, evaluation, and improvement of soil biogeochemical theory and models at regional to global scales. To isolate the effects of model structural uncertainty on the global distribution of soil carbon stocks and turnover times we developed a soil biogeochemical testbed that forces three different soil models with consistent climate and plant productivity inputs. The models tested here include a first-order, microbial implicit approach (CASA-CNP), and two recently developed microbially explicit models that can be run at global scales (MIMICS and CORPSE). When forced with common environmental drivers, the soil models generated similar estimates of initial soil carbon stocks (roughly 1,400 Pg C globally, 0–100 cm), but each model shows a different functional relationship between mean annual temperature and inferred turnover times. Subsequently, the models made divergent projections about the fate of these soil carbon stocks over the 20th century, with models either gaining or losing over 20 Pg C globally between 1901 and 2010. Single-forcing experiments with changed inputs, temperature, and moisture suggest that uncertainty associated with freeze-thaw processes as well as soil textural effects on soil carbon stabilization were larger than direct temperature uncertainties among models. Finally, the models generated distinct projections about the timing and magnitude of seasonal heterotrophic respiration rates, again reflecting structural uncertainties that were related to environmental sensitivities and assumptions about physicochemical stabilization of soil organic matter. Here, by providing a computationally tractable and numerically consistent framework to evaluate models we aim to better understand uncertainties among models and generate insights about factors regulating the turnover of soil organic matter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian processes meet NeuralODEs: a Bayesian framework for learning the dynamics of partially observed systems from scarce and noisy data

We present a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian model discovery from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. The use of the Finnish Horseshoe as a sparsity-promoting prior for free model parameters also enables the discovery of parsimonious representations for the latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator–prey systems, systems biology and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗