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An approach to the systematic optimization of a large-scale dynamic model is proposed which consists in parameterization of simulation results as response surfaces. The optimization procedure is carried out using a second-order orthogonal design. The approach proposed here is demonstrated by an example involving the shock-initiated ignition of methane.
Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, and ground processing at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. Some of these other boundaries include the Indian River breeze front, Banana River breeze front, outflows from previous convection, horizontal convective rolls, convergence lines from other inland bodies of water such as Lake Okeechobee, the trailing convergence line from convergence of sea breeze fronts due to the shape of Cape Canaveral, frictional convergence lines from the islands in the Bahamas, convergence lines from soil moisture differences, convergence lines from cloud shading, and others. All these subtle weak boundary interactions often make forecasting of operationally important weather very difficult at KSC/CCAFS during the convective season (May-Oct). These convective processes often build quickly, last a short time (60 minutes or less), and occur over small distances, all of which also poses a significant challenge to the local forecasters who are responsible for issuing weather advisories, watches, and warnings. Surface winds during the transition seasons of spring and fall pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to aid in their decision making. Both the ER and WFF would benefit greatly from high-resolution mesoscale model output to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. This task is a multi-year effort in which the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) will tune the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model individually for each range. The goal of the first year, the results of which are in this report, was to tune the WRF model based on the best model resolution and run time while using reasonable computing capabilities. To accomplish this, the ER and WFF supported the tasking of the AMU to perform a number of sensitivity tests in order to determine the best model configuration for operational use at each of the ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature (Watson 2013). This task is a continuation of that work and will provide a recommended local data assimilation (DA) and numerical forecast model design optimized for the ER and WFF to support space launch activities. The model will be optimized for local weather challenges at both ranges.
The advancement of artificial intelligence systems enables the use of data-driven physics-based surrogate models to explore design spaces rapidly and deeply for engineering projects. This work presents a surrogate model workflow that accelerates electric traction motor design optimization by replacing finite element analysis (FEA) with an artificial neural network (ANN) and using this model in a genetic algorithm for design optimization. A baseline interior permanent-magnet motor is parameterized and sampled to generate FEA-labeled training data, after which a feed-forward ANN predicts key outputs (e.g., loss components and weight). The validated surrogate enables genetic-algorithm optimization and deep search over the design space without new FEA runs, producing Pareto-optimal trade-offs between weight and losses and set of optimized designs for rapid downselection of manufacturable motor designs.
This paper reports on research for extending the Cooperative Control Synthesis methodology to include a more accurate modeling of the pilot's controller dynamics. Cooperative Control Synthesis (CCS) is a methodology that addresses the problem of how to design control laws for piloted, high-order, multivariate systems and/or non-conventional dynamic configurations in the absence of flying qualities specifications. This is accomplished by emphasizing the parallel structure inherent in any pilot-controlled, augmented vehicle. The original CCS methodology is extended to include the Modified Optimal Control Model (MOCM), which is based upon the optimal control model of the human operator developed by Kleinman, Baron, and Levison in 1970. This model provides a modeling of the pilot's compensation dynamics that is more accurate than the simplified pilot dynamic representation currently in the CCS methodology. Inclusion of the MOCM into the CCS also enables the modeling of pilot-observation perception thresholds and pilot-observation attention allocation affects. This Extended Cooperative Control Synthesis (ECCS) allows for the direct calculation of pilot and system open- and closed-loop transfer functions in pole/zero form and is readily implemented in current software capable of analysis and design for dynamic systems. Example results based upon synthesizing an augmentation control law for an acceleration command system in a compensatory tracking task using the ECCS are compared with a similar synthesis performed by using the original CCS methodology. The ECCS is shown to provide augmentation control laws that yield more favorable, predicted closed-loop flying qualities and tracking performance than those synthesized using the original CCS methodology.
An investigation utilizing Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS) was performed in order to demonstrate the use of design and analysis of computer experiments (DACE) methods in Sandia’s DAKOTA software package for surrogate modeling and optimization. These methods were applied to a flow- path fueled with an interdigitated flushwall injector suitable for scramjet applications at hyper- velocity conditions and ascending along a constant dynamic pressure flight trajectory. The flight Mach number, duct height, spanwise width, and injection angle were the design variables selected to maximize two objective functions: the thrust potential and combustion efficiency. Because the RAS of this case are computationally expensive, surrogate models are used for optimization. To build a surrogate model a RAS database is created. The sequence of the design variables comprising the database were generated using a Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. A methodology was also developed to automatically build geometries and generate structured grids for each design point. The ensuing RAS analysis generated the simulation database from which the two objective functions were computed using a one-dimensionalization (1D) of the three-dimensional simulation data. The data were fitted using four surrogate models: an artificial neural network (ANN), a cubic polynomial, a quadratic polynomial, and a Kriging model. Variance-based decomposition showed that both objective functions were primarily driven by changes in the duct height. Multiobjective design optimization was performed for all four surrogate models via a genetic algorithm method. Optimal solutions were obtained at the upper and lower bounds of the flight Mach number range. The Kriging model predicted an optimal solution set that exhibited high values for both objective functions. Additionally, three challenge points were selected to assess the designs on the Pareto fronts. Further sampling among the designs of the Pareto fronts may be required to lower the surrogate model errors and perform more accurate surrogate-model-based optimization.
A new regression model search algorithm was developed that may be applied to both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex algorithm that was originally developed for the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm performs regression model term reduction to prevent overfitting of data. It has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a regression model search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression model. Therefore, the simplified algorithm is not intended to replace the original algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search algorithm.
A new regression model search algorithm was developed in 2011 that may be used to analyze both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The new algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex search algorithm that was originally developed at the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression models. Therefore, the simplified search algorithm is not intended to replace the original search algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm either fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new regression model search algorithm.
A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.
An optimal control model is used to predict pilot performance in a series of longitudinal hovering tasks. Configurational changes are considered that alter significantly the system response to both control and disturbance inputs. Model predictions of mean-squared performance are compared with measurements obtained in an independent experimental study of the task. In addition, the optimal control model is used to predict describing functions that correspond to the loop closing pilot transfer functions frequently employed in classical multiloop manual control analyses.
In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.
Cost of energy consumption is one of the biggest operational cost for airports, and it is increasing from time to time as airports expand to support growing number of passengers. Various factors affect the energy consumption including efficiency of airport Heating Ventilation and Air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which in turn depends on the efficiency of individual subsystems. Here, in this paper, we present an optimal scheduling method for the central plant system at Dallas Fort Worth airport, involving chillers, pumps, and a thermal energy storage (TES) system. A model predictive control (MPC) problem is formulated to minimize both energy and demand charge costs while satisfying the cooling needs of the airport. The proposed Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) formulation includes performance curve based models for chillers and pumps and a simplified state of charge model for TES. The formulation also includes predictions of cooling load and chilled water return temperature. Simulation results for a month in summer show savings around 10% compared to the baseline. Initial recommendations based on insights from simulation results to the manual operation procedures resulted in significant savings. Field test results show a 7% chiller efficiency improvement.
Rapid localization of radiation sources is critical for applications including nuclear emergency response, safeguards, and security. However, conventional imaging systems such as neutron scatter cameras and Compton cameras depend on rare coincidence events, which often result in long acquisition times. In this work, we address the challenge of rapid source localization by developing a machine learning approach to predict the direction of a single radiation source using only count rates from an array of neutron and gamma-ray detectors. The proposed model is a fully connected neural network (FCNN) trained using Monte Carlo simulation data from a 252 Cf source. The model hyperparameters are optimized with a small set of routine 252 Cf measurements. We benchmarked the performance of the trained and optimized machine learning model using additional 252 Cf , 137 Cs , and PuBe measurements under laboratory conditions with varying source-detector configurations. For these measurements, the machine learning model achieved a mean localization error smaller than 30° with 3 x 10 3 system counts, corresponding to 8 s measurement time for the imaging system used in this work. In this low-statistics regime, the method outperformed traditional scatter-based imaging by more than 75% in localization accuracy for the evaluated measurement configurations. These results demonstrate that a machine learning-based approach can significantly reduce the time required for accurate single-source localization, providing a robust and computationally efficient alternative to traditional imaging systems in time-critical nuclear security and emergency response scenarios.
Safe and optimal motion control for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) poses a fundamental optimization challenge at the intersection of system complexity, environmental uncertainty, and stringent real-time constraints. Existing surveys address this challenge in isolation – focusing either on specific control techniques or individual uncertainty sources – without providing a unified framework that characterizes the trade-offs among computational tractability, performance verifiability, and adaptive generalization across paradigms. This review addresses that gap by presenting a cohesive analytical framework concentrated on the decision-making and trajectory optimization layers of the CAV autonomy stack. We systematically analyze three major optimization paradigms – first-principles model-based optimization, data-driven methods, and hybrid synergistic architectures – evaluating each against four core complexity axes: problem formulation, constraint handling, optimality guarantees, and robustness. Key applications including platooning, trajectory planning, collision avoidance, and cooperative control are examined to reveal recurring methodological patterns and critical operational constraints that limit real-world performance. Our synthesis identifies verifiable hybrid architectures, incentive-aligned multi-agent cooperation, and hardware-algorithm co-design as the defining research frontiers, and distills a targeted agenda for developing CAV control systems that are simultaneously safe, computationally efficient, and deployable in the full complexity of real-world traffic environments.
Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.
The research is classified in two categories: (1) the use of modern multivariable frequency domain methods for control of engine models in the neighborhood of a set-point, and (2) the use of nonlinear modelling and optimization techniques for control of engine models over a more extensive part of the flight envelope. Progress in the first category included the extension of CARDIAD (Complex Acceptability Region for Diagonal Dominance) methods developed with the help of the grant to the case of engine models with four inputs and four outputs. A suitable bounding procedure for the dominance function was determined. Progress in the second category had its principal focus on automatic nonlinear model generation. Simulations of models produced satisfactory results where compared with the NASA DYNGEN digital engine deck.
A control system design approach for optimal stability augmentation, systems, using limited state feedback theory with the specific inclusion of the human pilot in the loop is presented. The methodology is especially suitable for application to flight vehicles exhibiting nonconventional dynamic characteristics and for which quantitative handling qualities specifications are not available. The design is based on a correlation between pilot ratings and objective function of the optimal control model of the human pilot. Simultaneous optimization for augmentation and pilot gains are required.
Cyber-physical systems provide a mechanism with which to investigate the physical phenomena and behavior of traditionally cost-prohibitive or otherwise fragile equipment. For the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), this approach resulted in the Hybrid Performance (Hyper) facility which features a gas turbine-SOFC hybrid cycle utilizing real turbomachinery and a simulated SOFC stack. This allows for the investigation of combined cycle performance and control strategies, in an exhaustive manner, both without fear of destroying delicate state-of-the-art fuel cells, and with the full accuracy of real-world turbomachinery. Issues arose between the transient response of the SOFC model being limited to a sample time of 80 milliseconds, due to the calculation time of the SOFC model taking on average 40 milliseconds to calculate for a given timestep with spikes in calculation time reaching the 80 millisecond threshold. In order to be able to match the speed of transients from the turbomachinery and likewise better discern transient behavior, it was determined that the SOFC model must be optimized to operate at a sample time of 5 milliseconds. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the SOFC model in order to decrease the calculation time from around 40 milliseconds, down to at the most 5 milliseconds. To do this, both the electrochemical algorithm and the thermal algorithm used to simulate the physical behavior of the SOFC are investigated to determine where improvements can be made. To this end the rootfinding numerical recipes of the electrochemical algorithm are investigated as the complex electrochemistry requires a highly iterative nested dual convergence loop to resolve the voltage-current relationship, and likewise the temporal discretization of the thermal algorithm is modified for the sake of higher accuracy and stability. Ultimately the new electrochemical algorithm featuring higher order rootfinding schemes proves to be efficient enough to reach the sub 5 millisecond target, signifying an order of magnitude reduction in calculation time, and when coupled with the new temporal discretization similar calculation time characteristics show that a fully implicit, higher order temporal discretization can also successfully be used if desired. Ultimately this result means that the cyber-physical simulation system can operate at higher sample rates, and resolve transient events at significantly higher resolution and fidelity.
This paper introduces innovative optimization and deep learning techniques to enhance the prediction of complex wake dynamics in the downstream wind velocity of tilted wind turbines. Traditional methods for calibrating the Bastankhah wake model often lead to increased errors in wind velocity distribution due to overfitting of the local wake characteristics. To address this issue, we propose an additional global optimization step to reduce errors in wind velocity predictions with respect to various wake parameters. Despite this improvement, the Bastankhah model's axisymmetric Gaussian wake shape limits its accuracy for complex wake structures. Therefore, we also propose a deep learning approach, which demonstrates promising results by accurately modeling complex wake shapes across a broader range of tilt angles with minimal computational cost. The deep learning approach achieves near-identical predictions to high-fidelity large-eddy simulations, representing a promising advancement in wake modeling.