Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model based development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Active Control of High Frequency Combustion Instability in Aircraft Gas-Turbine Engines

Active control of high-frequency (greater than 500 Hz) combustion instability has been demonstrated in the NASA single-nozzle combustor rig at United Technologies Research Center. The combustor rig emulates an actual engine instability and has many of the complexities of a real engine combustor (i.e. actual fuel nozzle and swirler, dilution cooling, etc.) In order to demonstrate control, a high-frequency fuel valve capable of modulating the fuel flow at up to 1kHz was developed. Characterization of the fuel delivery system was accomplished in a custom dynamic flow rig developed for that purpose. Two instability control methods, one model-based and one based on adaptive phase-shifting, were developed and evaluated against reduced order models and a Sectored-1-dimensional model of the combustor rig. Open-loop fuel modulation testing in the rig demonstrated sufficient fuel modulation authority to proceed with closed-loop testing. During closed-loop testing, both control methods were able to identify the instability from the background noise and were shown to reduce the pressure oscillations at the instability frequency by 30%. This is the first known successful demonstration of high-frequency combustion instability suppression in a realistic aero-engine environment. Future plans are to carry these technologies forward to demonstration on an advanced low-emission combustor.

Corrigan, Bob↗

Application of artificial neural networks in nonlinear analysis of trusses

A method is developed to incorporate neural network model based upon the Backpropagation algorithm for material response into nonlinear elastic truss analysis using the initial stiffness method. Different network configurations are developed to assess the accuracy of neural network modeling of nonlinear material response. In addition to this, a scheme based upon linear interpolation for material data, is also implemented for comparison purposes. It is found that neural network approach can yield very accurate results if used with care. For the type of problems under consideration, it offers a viable alternative to other material modeling methods.

Alam, J.↗

A 2-D Interface Element for Coupled Analysis of Independently Modeled 3-D Finite Element Subdomains

Over the past few years, the development of the interface technology has provided an analysis framework for embedding detailed finite element models within finite element models which are less refined. This development has enabled the use of cascading substructure domains without the constraint of coincident nodes along substructure boundaries. The approach used for the interface element is based on an alternate variational principle often used in deriving hybrid finite elements. The resulting system of equations exhibits a high degree of sparsity but gives rise to a non-positive definite system which causes difficulties with many of the equation solvers in general-purpose finite element codes. Hence the global system of equations is generally solved using, a decomposition procedure with pivoting. The research reported to-date for the interface element includes the one-dimensional line interface element and two-dimensional surface interface element. Several large-scale simulations, including geometrically nonlinear problems, have been reported using the one-dimensional interface element technology; however, only limited applications are available for the surface interface element. In the applications reported to-date, the geometry of the interfaced domains exactly match each other even though the spatial discretization within each domain may be different. As such, the spatial modeling of each domain, the interface elements and the assembled system is still laborious. The present research is focused on developing a rapid modeling procedure based on a parametric interface representation of independently defined subdomains which are also independently discretized.

Kandil, Osama A.↗

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering (REV B)

The emergence of model-based engineering is transforming design and analysis methodologies. A recognized benefit of model-based engineering is the existence of a “single source of truth” about the system that becomes the authoritative source of data and information for designers, analysts, and developers. This promotes consistency and efficiency as the design emerges and can be used to further optimize the design. Integrating System Safety Engineers to the “single source of truth” will ensure that the outputs of their assessments and analyses are relevant to the design as it evolves. Use of an integrated system model enables near immediate evaluation of a design change as well as development of operational processes for risk assessment and communication. Such models can enable efficient and timely analysis of system hazards (e.g., hazard fault tree analysis and procedure simulations) and produce complete, accurate, and more consistent products (e.g., hazard reports and safety requirement evaluations). Therefore, an agency-sponsored team at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) recently completed a System Safety Study of modeling and testing capabilities as part of a Model-Based Safety and Mission Assurance Initiative (MBSMAI). Using an existing model developed for reliability analyses, GSFC modeling and system safety experts performed system safety analysis/modeling and produced safety products. The team evaluated model-based feasibility to support System Safety Engineering, developed safety analysis modeling processes, and identified tool capability advancement/development needs. These study results indicate model-based engineering is valid and useable for System Safety Engineering for NASA if adequate modeling processes and environment are established.

NASA↗

An interplanetary magnetic field dependent model of the ionospheric convection electric field

An IMF-dependent model of the magnetospheric electric field at ionospheric altitudes has been developed based on published observations, qualitative models, and a limited understanding of the electric field source. The empirical inputs are discussed, and the model is presented in an ionospheric convection situation where corotation is an important ingredient. This leads to a description of sunward ionospheric plasma transport in the polar cap for northward IMF orientations. The validity of the model is discussed, and areas in which more empirical results are required are specified.

Sojka, J. J.↗

A New BRDF Hotspot Model and its Use in Improving Radiative Transfer Model Efficiency and Application to VLIDORT-based PCRTM Model

The term “hotspot” refers to the sharp increase of reflectance occurring when incident (solar) and reflected (viewing) directions almost coincide in the backscatter direction. The accurate simulation of hotspot directional signatures is important for many remote sensing applications. The RossThick-LiSparse-Reciprocal (RTLSR) Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model is widely used in radiative transfer simulations, and the hotspot model mostly used is from Maignan- Bréon but it typically requires large values of numerical quadrature and Fourier expansion terms in order to represent the hotspot accurately. To improve its use in atmospheric radiative transfer (RT) model simulations, we have developed a modified version based on the Maignan-Bréon’s hotspot BRDF model that converge much faster numerically, making it more practical for use in RT models that require Fourier expansion of BRDF to simulate the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) hotspot signatures. On basis of the vector linearized discrete ordinate radiative transfer model (VLIDORT), we have built a line-by-line based simulation system that can simulate the TOA radiance for atmospheres with 26 gases, different aerosols, dust and clouds, and surface with different BRDF. Using simulated results under diverse atmospheric conditions, we have developed VLIDORT-PCRTM model.

Xiaozhen Xiong↗

Microstructural Development during Directional Solidification of Peritectic Alloys

A thorough understanding of the microstructures produced through solidification in peritectic systems has yet to be achieved, even though a large number of industrially and scientifically significant materials are in this class. One type of microstructure frequently observed during directional solidification consists of alternating layers of primary solid and peritectic solid oriented perpendicular to the growth direction. This layer formation is usually reported for alloy compositions within the two-phase region of the peritectic isotherm and for temperature gradient and growth rate conditions that result in a planar solid-liquid interface. Layered growth in peritectic alloys has not previously been characterized on a quantitative basis, nor has a mechanism for its formation been verified. The mechanisms that have been proposed for layer formation can be categorized as either extrinsic or intrinsic to the alloy system. The extrinsic mechanisms rely on externally induced perturbations to the system for layer formation, such as temperature oscillations, growth velocity variations, or vibrations. The intrinsic mechanisms approach layer formation as an alternative type of two phase growth that is inherent for certain peritectic systems and solidification conditions. Convective mixing of the liquid is an additional variable which can strongly influence the development and appearance of layers due to the requisite slow growth rate. The first quantitative description of layer formation is a model recently developed by Trivedi based on the intrinsic mechanism of cyclic accumulation and depiction of solute in the liquid ahead of the interface, linked to repeated nucleation events in the absence of convection. The objective of this research is to characterize the layered microstructures developed during ground-based experiments in which external influences have been minimized as much as possible and to compare these results to the current the model. Also, the differences between intrinsic and externally influenced layer formation were explored. The choice of alloy system is critical to a study of the formation of layered microstructures. The ideal system would have a well-characterized phase diagram, equal densities of both elements in the liquid state to minimize compositionally-driven convective flows, a low peritectic temperature to simplify directional solidification and the achievement of a high temperature gradient in the liquid, a broad composition range for the peritectic reaction, and a reasonable hardness at room temperature to facilitate handling and metallographic preparation. The In-Sn system was selected initially due to a very low peritectic temperature and the nearly equal densities of In and Sn in the liquid state. Since the In-rich peritectic reaction had apparently not been utilized previously for solidification research, experiments were conducted to check the phase diagram in the region of interest. The alloys in this system proved to be difficult to handle and prepare in bulk form with the equipment available, so experiments were initiated with the Sn-Cd system. Layered microstructures had been observed previously in Sn-Cd.

Lograsso, Thomas A.↗

CFD Modeling of Helium Pressurant Effects on Cryogenic Tank Pressure Rise Rates in Normal Gravity

A recently developed computational fluid dynamics modeling capability for cryogenic tanks is used to simulate both self-pressurization from external heating and also depressurization from thermodynamic vent operation. Axisymmetric models using a modified version of the commercially available FLOW-3D software are used to simulate actual physical tests. The models assume an incompressible liquid phase with density that is a function of temperature only. A fully compressible formulation is used for the ullage gas mixture that contains both condensable vapor and a noncondensable gas component. The tests, conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, include both liquid hydrogen and nitrogen in tanks with ullage gas mixtures of each liquid's vapor and helium. Pressure and temperature predictions from the model are compared to sensor measurements from the tests and a good agreement is achieved. This further establishes the accuracy of the developed FLOW-3D based modeling approach for cryogenic systems.

Grayson, Gary↗

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering is transforming design and analysis methodologies [5]. A recognized benefit of model-based engineering is the existence of a “single source of truth” about the system that becomes the authoritative source of data and information for designers, analysts, and developers. This promotes consistency and efficiency as the design emerges and can be used to further optimize the design. Integrating System Safety Engineers to the “single source of truth” will ensure that the outputs of their assessments and analyses are relevant to the design as it evolves. Use of an integrated system model enables near immediate evaluation of a design change as well as development of operational processes for risk assessment and communication. Such models can enable efficient and timely analysis of system hazards (e.g., hazard fault tree analysis and procedure simulations) and produce complete, accurate, and more consistent products (e.g., hazard reports and safety requirement evaluations). Therefore, an agency-sponsored team at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) recently completed a System Safety Study of modeling and testing capabilities as part of a Model-Based Safety and Mission Assurance Initiative (MBSMAI). Using an existing model developed for reliability analyses [1], GSFC modeling and system safety experts performed system safety analysis/modeling and produced safety products. The team evaluated model-based feasibility to support System Safety Engineering, developed safety analysis modeling processes, and identified tool capability advancement/development needs. These study results indicate model-based engineering is valid and useable for System

NASA↗

System Safety Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering is transforming design and analysis methodologies [5]. A recognized benefit of model-based engineering is the existence of a “single source of truth” about the system that becomes the authoritative source of data and information for designers, analysts, and developers. This promotes consistency and efficiency as the design emerges and can be used to further optimize the design. Integrating System Safety Engineers to the “single source of truth” will ensure that the outputs of their assessments and analyses are relevant to the design as it evolves. Use of an integrated system model enables near immediate evaluation of a design change as well as development of operational processes for risk assessment and communication. Such models can enable efficient and timely analysis of system hazards (e.g., hazard fault tree analysis and procedure simulations) and produce complete, accurate, and more consistent products (e.g., hazard reports and safety requirement evaluations). Therefore, an agency-sponsored team at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) recently completed a System Safety Study of modeling and testing capabilities as part of a Model-Based Safety and Mission Assurance Initiative (MBSMAI). Using an existing model developed for reliability analyses [1], GSFC modeling and system safety experts performed system safety analysis/modeling and produced safety products. The team evaluated model-based feasibility to support System Safety Engineering, developed safety analysis modeling processes, and identified tool capability advancement/development needs. These study results indicate model-based engineering is valid and useable for System

Model Based Engineering↗

Extension of a Kolmogorov Atmospheric Turbulence Model for Time-Based Simulation Implementation

The development of any super/hypersonic aircraft requires the interaction of a wide variety of technical disciplines to maximize vehicle performance. For flight and engine control system design and development on this class of vehicle, realistic mathematical simulation models of atmospheric turbulence, including winds and the varying thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere, are needed. A model which has been tentatively selected by a government/industry group of flight and engine/inlet controls representatives working on the High Speed Civil Transport is one based on the Kolmogorov spectrum function. This report compares the Dryden and Kolmogorov turbulence forms, and describes enhancements that add functionality to the selected Kolmogorov model. These added features are: an altitude variation of the eddy dissipation rate based on Dryden data, the mapping of the eddy dissipation rate database onto a regular latitude and longitude grid, a method to account for flight at large vehicle attitude angles, and a procedure for transitioning smoothly across turbulence segments.

McMinn, John D.↗

Demonstrating Assurance of Model-Based Fault Diagnosis Systems on an Operational Mission

Developers of robotic scientific and commercial spacecraft are trending towards use of onboard autonomous capabilities for responding quickly to dynamic environments and rapidly changing situations. These capabilities need to know the state of the spacecraft’s health. Model-based fault diagnosis (MBFD) is an approach to estimating health by continuously verifying accurate behavior and diagnosing off-nominal behavior. Proper functioning of MBFD depends on 1) the quality of the diagnostic system model that is analyzed and compared to commands and onboard measurements to estimate a system’s health state, and 2) the correct functionality of the diagnosis engine interrogating the model and comparing its analyses to observed system behavior. Our goal is to develop Verification and Validation (V&V) techniques for MBFD to provide future missions sufficient confidence in its functionality and performance to deploy it on the systems they develop. Our work has been focused on infusing the techniques we developed earlier to an operational mission. First, we are constructing diagnostic models of a spacecraft attitude control system and updating our diagnostic engine so they can be demonstrated aboard the Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics (ASTERIA) mission, an operational spacecraft for which experiments in autonomy are being planned and executed, using the V&V techniques we have previously developed to assure they are both correct and complete. Since it is nearing the end of its life, ASTERIA provides a unique opportunity to demonstrate MBFD since the monitored components are expected to fail. Our demonstration will give system developers additional confidence to make timely, informed MBFD deployment decisions. Second, we will be completing performance assessments of the diagnostic engine/diagnostic model ensemble both on the flight system and ground-based testbeds to gain confidence in MBFD’s ability to run successfully in a spacecraft’s resource-constrained environment without adversely affecting other on-board activities. Finally, we are capturing our experience in preparing this demonstration in a set of checklists and guidance documents. Current practice includes high-level institutional guidance documents and standards, but at a high level of abstraction that does not necessarily address specific MBFD concerns. The purpose of the new checklists is to provide future mission developers clear, unambiguous, procedure-oriented guidance on assuring MBFD. This paper describes our work in these areas. For the first area, we describe the diagnostic models and updated diagnostic engine that will be used for the on-board demonstration. We describe how the V&V techniques we developed earlier are used to assure model and engine correctness and completeness. For the second area, we identify the performance measurement and assessment techniques used to characterize the diagnostic engine and diagnostic models, and discuss the effect of measured performance on overall mission operation. Finally, we present the checklist and guidance documents and describe how they meet the goals of providing system developers with clear, unambiguous, procedure-oriented guidance on MBFD assurance. We show how the techniques we have developed map into those artifacts.

Nikora, Allen↗

The blackboard model - A framework for integrating multiple cooperating expert systems

The use of an artificial intelligence (AI) architecture known as the blackboard model is examined as a framework for designing and building distributed systems requiring the integration of multiple cooperating expert systems (MCXS). Aerospace vehicles provide many examples of potential systems, ranging from commercial and military aircraft to spacecraft such as satellites, the Space Shuttle, and the Space Station. One such system, free-flying, spaceborne telerobots to be used in construction, servicing, inspection, and repair tasks around NASA's Space Station, is examined. The major difficulties found in designing and integrating the individual expert system components necessary to implement such a robot are outlined. The blackboard model, a general expert system architecture which seems to address many of the problems found in designing and building such a system, is discussed. A progress report on a prototype system under development called DBB (Distributed BlackBoard model) is given. The prototype will act as a testbed for investigating the feasibility, utility, and efficiency of MCXS-based designs developed under the blackboard model.

Erickson, W. K.↗

A Stochastic Model of Space Radiation Transport as a Tool in the Development of Time-Dependent Risk Assessment

A new computer model, the GCR Event-based Risk Model code (GERMcode), was developed to describe biophysical events from high-energy protons and heavy ions that have been studied at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) [1] for the purpose of simulating space radiation biological effects. In the GERMcode, the biophysical description of the passage of heavy ions in tissue and shielding materials is made with a stochastic approach that includes both ion track structure and nuclear interactions. The GERMcode accounts for the major nuclear interaction processes of importance for describing heavy ion beams, including nuclear fragmentation, elastic scattering, and knockout-cascade processes by using the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSFRG) model [2]. The QMSFRG model has been shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

A finite-element-based perturbation model for the rotordynamic analysis of shrouded pump impellers: Part 1: Model development and applications

This study concerns the rotor dynamic characteristics of fluid-encompassed rotors, with special emphasis on shrouded pump impellers. The core of the study is a versatile and categorically new finite-element-based perturbation model, which is based on a rigorous flow analysis and what we have generically termed the 'virtually' deformable finite-element approach. The model is first applied to the case of a smooth annular seal for verification purposes. The rotor excitation components, in this sample problem, give rise to a purely cylindrical, purely conical, and a simultaneous cylindrical/conical rotor whirl around the housing centerline. In all cases, the computed results are compared to existing experimental and analytical data involving the same seal geometry and operating conditions. Next, two labyrinth-seal configurations, which share the same tooth-to-tooth chamber geometry but differ in the total number of chambers, were investigated. The results, in this case, are compared to experimental measurements for both seal configurations. The focus is finally shifted to the shrouded-impeller problem, where the stability effects of the leakage flow in the shroud-to-housing secondary passage are investigated. To this end, the computational model is applied to a typical shrouded-impeller pump stage, fabricated and rotor dynamically tested by Sulzer Bros., and the results compared to those of a simplified 'bulk-flow' analysis and Sulzer Bros.' test data. In addition to assessing the computed rotor dynamic coefficients, the shrouded-impeller study also covers a controversial topic, namely that of the leakage-passage inlet swirl, which was previously cited as the origin of highly unconventional (resonance-like) trends of the fluid-exerted forces. In order to validate this claim, a 'microscopic' study of the fluid/shroud interaction mechanism is conducted, with the focus being on the structure of the perturbed flow field associated with the impeller whirl. The conclusions of this study were solidified by the outcome of a numerical-certainty exercise, where the grid dependency of the numerical results is objectively examined. The final phase of the shrouded-impeller investigation involves the validation of a built-in assumption, in all other perturbation models, whereby single-harmonic tangential distributions of all the flow thermophysical properties are imposed. The last phase of the investigation course is aimed at verifying the fine details of the perturbed flow field in light of recent set of detailed LDA measurements in a smooth annular seal. Grid dependency of the fluid-induced forces is also investigated, and specific recommendations are made.

Baskharone, Erian A.↗

MRI-Based Computational Fluid Dynamics in Experimental Vascular Models: Toward the Development of an Approach for Prediction of Cardiovascular Changes During Prolonged Space Missions

A priority of NASA is to identify and study possible risks to astronauts health during prolonged space missions [l]. The goal is to develop a procedure for a preflight evaluation of the cardiovascular system of an astronaut and to forecast how it will be affected during the mission. To predict these changes, a computational cardiovascular model must be constructed. Although physiology data can be used to make a general model, a more desirable subject-specific model requires anatomical, functional, and flow data from the specific astronaut. MRI has the unique advantage of providing images with all of the above information, including three-directional velocity data which can be used as boundary conditions in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program [2,3]. MRI-based CFD is very promising for reproduction of the flow patterns of a specific subject and prediction of changes in the absence of gravity. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility of this approach by reconstructing the geometry of MRI-scanned arterial models and reproducing the MRI-measured velocities using CFD simulations on these geometries.

Spirka, T. A.↗

High Temperature Degradation Mechanisms in Polymer Matrix Composites

Polymer matrix composites are increasingly used in demanding structural applications in which they may be exposed to harsh environments. The durability of such materials is a major concern, potentially limiting both the integrity of the structures and their useful lifetimes. The goal of the current investigation is to develop a mechanism-based model of the chemical degradation which occurs, such that given the external chemical environment and temperatures throughout the laminate, laminate geometry, and ply and/or constituent material properties, we can calculate the concentration of diffusing substances and extent of chemical degradation as functions of time and position throughout the laminate. This objective is met through the development and use of analytical models, coupled to an analysis-driven experimental program which offers both quantitative and qualitative information on the degradation mechanism. Preliminary analyses using coupled diffusion/reaction model are used to gain insight into the physics of the degradation mechanisms and to identify crucial material parameters. An experimental program is defined based on the results of the preliminary analysis which allows the determination of the necessary material coefficients. Thermogravimetric analyses are carried out in nitrogen, air, and oxygen to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative reactions. Powdered samples are used to eliminate diffusion effects. Tests in both inert and oxidative environments allow the separation of thermal and oxidative contributions to specimen mass loss. The concentration dependency of the oxidative reactions is determined from the tests in pure oxygen. Short term isothermal tests at different temperatures are carried out on neat resin and unidirectional macroscopic specimens to identify diffusion effects. Mass loss, specimen shrinkage, the formation of degraded surface layers and surface cracking are recorded as functions of exposure time. Geometry effects in the neat resin, and anisotropic diffusion effects in the composites, are identified through the use of specimens with different aspect ratios. The data is used with the model to determine reaction coefficients and effective diffusion coefficients. The empirical and analytical correlations confirm the preliminary model results which suggest that mass loss at lower temperatures is dominated by oxidative reactions and that these reaction are limited by diffusion of oxygen from the surface. The mechanism-based model is able to successfully capture the basic physics of the degradation phenomena under a wide range of test conditions. The analysis-based test design is successful in separating out oxidative, thermal, and diffusion effects to allow the determination of material coefficients. This success confirms the basic picture of the process; however, a more complete understanding of some aspects of the physics are required before truly predictive capability can be achieved.

Cunningham, Ronan A.↗

High Temperature Degradation Mechanisms in Polymer Matrix Composites

Polymer matrix composites are increasingly used in demanding structural applications in which they may be exposed to harsh environments. The durability of such materials is a major concern, potentially limiting both the integrity of the structures and their useful lifetimes. The goal of the current investigation is to develop a mechanism-based model of the chemical degradation which occurs, such that given the external chemical environment and temperatures throughout the laminate, laminate geometry, and ply and/or constituent material properties, we can calculate the concentration of diffusing substances and extent of chemical degradation as functions of time and position throughout the laminate. This objective is met through the development and use of analytical models, coupled to an analysis-driven experimental program which offers both quantitative and qualitative information on the degradation mechanism. Preliminary analyses using a coupled diffusion/reaction model are used to gain insight into the physics of the degradation mechanisms and to identify crucial material parameters. An experimental program is defined based on the results of the preliminary analysis which allows the determination of the necessary material coefficients. Thermogravimetric analyses are carried out in nitrogen, air, and oxygen to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative reactions. Powdered samples are used to eliminate diffusion effects. Tests in both inert and oxidative environments allow the separation of thermal and oxidative contributions to specimen mass loss. The concentration dependency of the oxidative reactions is determined from the tests in pure oxygen. Short term isothermal tests at different temperatures are carried out on neat resin and unidirectional macroscopic specimens to identify diffusion effects. Mass loss, specimen shrinkage, the formation of degraded surface layers and surface cracking are recorded as functions of exposure time. Geometry effects in the neat resin, and anisotropic diffusion effects in the composites, are identified through the use of specimens with different aspect ratios. The data is used with the model to determine reaction coefficients and effective diffusion coefficients. The empirical and analytical correlations confirm the preliminary model results which suggest that mass loss at lower temperatures is dominated by oxidative reactions and that these reaction are limited by diffusion of oxygen from the surface. The mechanism-based model is able to successfully capture the basic physics of the degradation phenomena under a wide range of test conditions. The analysis-based test design is successful in separating out oxidative, thermal, and diffusion effects to allow the determination of material coefficients. This success confirms the basic picture of the process; however, a more complete understanding of some aspects of the physics are required before truly predictive capability can be achieved.

Cunningham, Ronan A.↗