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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Equilibrium Properties of the Mixed State in Superconducting Niobium in a Transverse Magnetic Field: Experiment and Theoretical Model

Equilibrium magnetic properties of the mixed state in type II superconductors were studied on high-purity film and single-crystal niobium samples with different Ginzburg-Landau parameters in perpendicular and parallel magnetic fields using dc magnetometry and scanning Hall-probe microscopy. The magnetization curve for samples with unity demagnetizing factor (slabs in perpendicular field) was obtained for the first time. It was found that none of the existing theories is consistent with these new data. To address this problem, a theoretical model is developed and comprehensively validated. The new model describes the mixed state in an averaged limit, i.e., without detailing the samples’ magnetic structure and therefore ignoring the surface current and interactions between the structural units (vortices). At low values of the Ginzburg-Landau parameter, it converts to the model of Peierls and London for the intermediate state in type I superconductors. The model quantitatively describes the magnetization curve for the perpendicular field and provides new insights into the properties of the mixed state, including properties of individual vortices. In particular, it suggests that description of the vortex matter in superconductors of the transverse geometry as a “gas-like” system of non-interacting vortices is more appropriate than the frequently used solid-like scenarios.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic Model of Basic Oxygen Steelmaking Process Based on Multi-zone Reaction Kinetics: Model Derivation and Validation

A multi-zone kinetic model coupled with a dynamic slag generation model was developed for the simulation of hot metal and slag composition during the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) operation. The three reaction zones (i) jet impact zone, (ii) slag–bulk metal zone, (iii) slag–metal–gas emulsion zone were considered for the calculation of overall refining kinetics. In the rate equations, the transient rate parameters were mathematically described as a function of process variables. A micro and macroscopic rate calculation methodology (micro-kinetics and macro-kinetics) were developed to estimate the total refining contributed by the recirculating metal droplets through the slag–metal emulsion zone. The micro-kinetics involves developing the rate equation for individual droplets in the emulsion. The mathematical models for the size distribution of initial droplets, kinetics of simultaneous refining of elements, the residence time in the emulsion, and dynamic interfacial area change were established in the micro-kinetic model. In the macro-kinetics calculation, a droplet generation model was employed and the total amount of refining by emulsion was calculated by summing the refining from the entire population of returning droplets. A dynamic Fe{sub t}O generation model based on oxygen mass balance was developed and coupled with the multi-zone kinetic model. The effect of post-combustion on the evolution of slag and metal composition was investigated. The model was applied to a 200-ton top blowing converter and the simulated value of metal and slag was found to be in good agreement with the measured data. The post-combustion ratio was found to be an important factor in controlling Fe{sub t}O content in the slag and the kinetics of Mn and P in a BOF process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale modeling and nonlinear model predictive control for flue gas desulfurization

The primary source of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions is flue gas from fossil fuels-based power plants. SO 2 emissions are known to not only cause health issues, but also have an adverse effect on the environment in various ways. Several Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) technologies have been incorporated in power plants. The most popular technology is Wet FGD, where a limestone slurry is used to absorb SO 2 from the flue gas. A detailed droplet scale model describing the instantaneous and finite rate chemistry is developed. The ill-posed Differential-Algebraic Equation (DAE) droplet model is reformulated to a well-posed index-1 DAE through index reduction. The droplet model is integrated with the bulk phase by incorporating gas-liquid mass transfer, and an oxidation reactor model to simulate the dynamic operation of the counter-current spray scrubber. As a result, the model has a well-conditioned Jacobian and overcomes the modeling challenges of previous works and enables numerical solution without requiring carefully selected initialization or specialized solution procedures. The model is successfully validated using power plant measurements, and nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) studies are demonstrated to optimize recycle stream flowrates to minimize pumping costs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effective moisture penetration depth model for residential buildings: Sensitivity analysis and guidance on model inputs

Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to the interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Equation-based object-oriented modeling and simulation of data center cooling systems

In this paper, we introduce a newly developed open source data center package in the Modelica Buildings library to support modeling and simulation of cooling and control systems of data centers. The data center package contains major thermal and control component models, such as Computer Room Air Handler, Computer Room Air Conditioner, models of different subsystem configurations such as chillers with differently configured waterside economizers, as well as templates for different systems. Two case studies based on this package are performed to investigate the performances of the cooling and electrical system under normal conditions and emergency situations such as a blackout: one is for a data center powered by conventional energy, and the other is for a data center powered by renewable energy. Simulation results show that the dynamic modeling and multi-domain simulation in the Modelica-based tool make it convenient for users to investigate both normal and emergent operations for conventional and renewable data centers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conditional distribution estimation of building characteristics with diffusion models for urban energy modeling

Understanding current energy consumption behavior in communities is critical for informing future energy use decisions and enabling efficient energy management. Urban energy models, which are used to simulate these energy use patterns, require large datasets with detailed building characteristics for accurate outcomes. However, such detailed characteristics at the individual building level are often unknown and costly to acquire, or unavailable. Through this work, we propose using a generative modeling approach to generate realistic building attributes to fill in the data gaps and finally provide complete characteristics as inputs to energy models. Our model learns complex, building-level patterns from training on a large-scale residential building stock model containing 2.2 million buildings. We employ a tabular diffusion-based framework that is designed to handle heterogeneous (discrete and continuous) features in tabular building data, such as occupancy, floor area, heating, cooling, and other equipment details. We develop a capability for conditional diffusion, enabling the imputation of missing building characteristics conditioned on known attributes. We conduct a comprehensive validation of our conditional diffusion model, firstly by comparing the generated conditional distributions against the underlying data distribution, and secondly, by performing a case study for a Baltimore residential region, showing the practical utility of our approach. Our work is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of generative modeling to accelerate building energy modeling workflows.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modelling soil erosion in a Mediterranean watershed: Comparison between SWAT and AnnAGNPS models

Highlights: • Outputs, input data and time requirements are compared for SWAT and AnnAGNPS. • Models are assessed also in wet and dry seasons. • Most of the basin is under moderate or high risk of erosion. • SWAT and AnnAGNPS are compared with RUSLE2015 and PESERA. In this study, the simulations generated by two of the most widely used hydrological basin-scale models, the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), were compared in a Mediterranean watershed, the Carapelle (Apulia, Southern Italy). Input data requirements, time and efforts needed for input preparation, strength and weakness points of each model, ease of use and limitations were evaluated in order to give information to users. Models were calibrated and validated at monthly time scale for hydrology and sediment load using a four year period of observations (streamflow and suspended sediment concentrations). In the driest year, the specific sediment load measured at the outlet was 0.89 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}, while the simulated values were 0.83 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1} and 1.99 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1} for SWAT and AnnAGNPS, respectively. In the wettest year, the specific measured sediment load was 7.45 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}, and the simulated values were 8.27 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1} and 6.23 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1} for SWAT and AnnAGNPS, respectively. Both models showed from fair to a very good correlation between observed and simulated streamflow and satisfactory for sediment load. Results showed that most of the basin is under moderate (1.4–10 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}) and high-risk erosion (> 10 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}). The sediment yield predicted by the SWAT and AnnAGNPS models were compared with estimates of soil erosion simulated by models for Europe (PESERA and RUSLE2015). The average gross erosion estimated by the RUSLE2015 model (12.5 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}) resulted comparable with the average specific sediment yield estimated by SWAT (8.8 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}) and AnnAGNPS (5.6 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}), while it was found that the average soil erosion estimated by PESERA is lower than the other estimates (1.2 t ha{sup −1} yr{sup −1}).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Molecular thermodynamic modeling of aqueous Na + -K + -Mg 2+ -Ca 2+ -SO 4 2- quinary system

As part of the effort to develop a comprehensive molecular thermodynamic model for high salinity produced water based on the electrolyte nonrandom two-liquid theory, this work presents the model results for the aqueous Na + -K + -Mg 2+ -Ca 2+ -SO 4 2- quinary system. With the binary interaction parameters fully parameterized for the water-electrolyte pairs and the electrolyte-electrolyte pairs, the model satisfactorily describes the thermodynamic properties for the aqueous quinary system and its binary, ternary, and quaternary subsystems for the temperature range 273.15–473.15 K and the salt concentrations up to saturation. The model results are compared with the salt solubility and thermodynamic data available for the subsystems with special attention to systems involving (Ca 2+ SO 4 2- ).

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

A unified non-equilibrium phase change model for injection flow modeling

The homogenous relaxation model (HRM) is one of the most widely used models to describe the liquid- gas phase transition. However, in its original formulation, it is unable to handle multispecies vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE), which limits its applicability to single-component fluids. In this work, a unified non-equilibrium phase change model that considers the VLE of multicomponent mixtures is proposed building upon the HRM's structure. A time factor is introduced to mimic the effect of different phase change timescales due to different mechanisms, e.g., cavitation, flash-boiling, and evaporation. Here to assess the model's performance, computational fluid dynamics simulations of the internal and near-nozzle injection flow of the Engine Combustion Network's Spray G injector were performed using the nine-component PACE-20 fuel with both the unified model and the original HRM. The predicted fuel density in the near-nozzle region matched well with X-ray tomography measurements. The simulation results indicated that, whereas the HRM failed to capture the vaporization due to convective mixing between the fuel and ambient gas, the unified model performed well in predicting the mixing-driven vaporization and the corresponding evaporative cooling. Further comparisons using the nine-component fuel formula and a single-component fuel surrogate demonstrated the unified model's ability to predict preferential vaporization, which affects the predictions of local mixture composition and rate of vaporization. Finally, it is shown that the unified model is capable of representing multiple phase change mechanisms, and the relaxation time factor plays an important role in determining the degree of phase change due to the different mechanisms.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Single Column Atmosphere Model Version 6 (SCAM6): Not a Scam but a Tool for Model Evaluation and Development

The Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM) is a single column model version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Here we describe the functionality and features of SCAM6, available as part of CAM6 in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). SCAM6 features a wide selection of standard cases, as well as the ability to easily configure a case specified by the user based on a particular point in a CAM 3-D simulation. This work illustrates how SCAM6 reproduces CAM6 results for physical parameterizations, mostly of moisture and clouds. We demonstrate how SCAM6 can be used for model development through different physics selections, as well as with parameter sweep experiments to highlight the sensitivity of cloud properties to the specification of the vapor deposition process in the cloud microphysics. Furthermore, we use SCAM6 to illustrate the sensitivity of CAM6 cloud radiative properties and precipitation to variable drop number (cloud microphysics properties). Finally, we illustrate how SCAM6 can be used to explore critical emergent processes such as cloud feedbacks and show that CAM6 cloud responses to surface warming in stratus and stratocumulus regimes are similar to those in CAM5. CAM6 has a larger response in the shallow cumulus regime than CAM5. CAM6 cloud feedbacks in the shallow cumulus regime are sensitive to turbulence parameters. SCAM6 is thus a valuable tool for model development, evaluation, and scientific analy sis and an important part of the model hierarchy in Community Earth System Model, version 2.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Turbulence Models for Large-Scale Atmospheric Boundary Layer Flows

We present high-fidelity large-eddy-simulation (LES) modeling approaches for the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows. Wind energy is a prime example of an application driven by ABL. Generation of electrical energy from farms of wind turbines at night in the stable ABL is a particularly interesting situation. In this report, we consider the well-known GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS) stably stratified benchmark LES case. We use a high-order spectral element code Nek5000/RS, which is supported under the DOE's Exascale Computing Project (ECP) Center for Efficient Exascale Discretizations (CEED) project, targeting application simulations on various acceleration-device based exascale computing platforms. In our earlier ANL report, we demonstrated our newly developed subgrid-scale (SGS) models based on high-pass filter (HPF), mean-field eddy viscosity (MFEV), and Smagorinsky (SMG) with no-slip and traction boundary conditions, provided with low-order statistics, convergence and turbulent structure analysis. In this report, we extend the range of our SGS modeling approaches in the context of the mean-field eddy viscosity (MFEV), to include the solution of an SGS turbulent kinetic energy equation (TKE). We demonstrate the model fidelity of Nek5000/RS in comparison to that of AMR-Wind, a block-structured second-order finite-volume code with adaptive-mesh-refinement capabilities, with which we studied scaling performance for both codes in comparison on DOE's leadership computing platforms.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2015

Why Is Improvement of Earth System Models so Elusive? Challenges and Strategies from Dust Aerosol Modeling

Past decades have seen an accelerating increase in computing efficiency, while climate models are representing a rapidly widening set of physical processes. Yet simulations of some fundamental aspects of climate like precipitation or aerosol forcing remain highly uncertain and resistant to progress. Dust aerosol modeling of soil particles lofted by wind erosion has seen a similar conflict between increasing model sophistication and remaining uncertainty. Dust aerosols perturb the energy and water cycles by scattering radiation and acting as ice nuclei, while mediating atmospheric chemistry and marine photosynthesis (and thus the carbon cycle). These effects take place across scales from the dimensions of an ice crystal to the planetary-scale circulation that disperses dust far downwind of its parent soil. Representing this range leads to several modeling challenges. Should we limit complexity in our model, which consumes computer resources and inhibits interpretation? How do we decide if a process involving dust is worthy of inclusion within our model? Can we identify a minimal representation of a complex process that is efficient yet retains the physics relevant to climate? Answering these questions about the appropriate degree of representation is guided by model evaluation, which presents several more challenges. How do we proceed if the available observations do not directly constrain our process of interest? (This could result from competing processes that influence the observed variable and obscure the signature of our process of interest.) Examples will be presented from dust modeling, with lessons that might be more broadly applicable. The end result will either be clinical depression or there assuring promise of continued gainful employment as the community confronts these challenges.

Climate models↗
NASA NTRS2016

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

biogeochemistry↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Quiet Solar Luminosity Variability from TSI Satellite Measurements and Proxy Models during 1980-2018

A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor physikalisch-meteorologisches observatorium davos (ACRIM-PMOD) TSI composite controversy regarding how the total solar irradiance (TSI) has evolved since 1978 and about whether TSI significantly increased or slightly decreased from 1980 to 2000. The main question is whether TSI increased or decreased during the so-called ACRIM-gap period from 1989 to 1992. There is significant discrepancy between TSI proxy models and observations before and after the gap, which requires a careful revisit of the data analysis and modeling performed during the ACRIM-gap period. In this study, we use three recently proposed TSI proxy models that do not present any TSI increase during the ACRIM-gap, and show that they agree with the TSI data only from 1996 to 2016. However, these same models significantly diverge from the observations from 1981 and 1996. Thus, the scaling errors must be different between the two periods, which suggests errors in these models. By adjusting the TSI proxy models to agree with the data patterns before and after the ACRIM-gap, we found that these models miss a slowly varying TSI component. The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/m2 reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/m2 from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

total solar irradiance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Modeling of Carbon Ablators Using Micro and Macro-Scale Modeling

Efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. To reduce the need for extensive testing, accelerate the design cycle process, and reduce uncertainty margins applied to final designs, NASA is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable characterization of material properties and response to high-enthalpy environments. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) code has been developed for computing macroscale (volume averaged) properties of porous materials using microscale images from micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Microscale modeling requires a realistic representation of a material microstructure; these are obtained either synthetically during the design of the material or through X-ray micro-CT. Volume averaged properties are then used to inform macroscale material response models, such as those implemented in the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software, also actively developed by NASA. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale assuming local thermal equilibrium. These tools were developed to efficiently interface with other pre-existing codes such as SPARTA (direct simulation Monte Carlo), DPLR (hypersonic CFD), NEQAIR (radiative transport) and DAKOTA (uncertainty quantification and optimization). Detailed flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI]) is critical for validating these computational tools for NASA applications. Examples of modeling ablative material response using these codes will be presented including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrate the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains, through the use of massively parallel computations.

Thermal Protection Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Numerical and Modeling Errors of RANS based Transition Models for Low-Reynolds Numbers 2-D Flows

In this paper we report the outcome of selected workshops organized as part of the NATO Applied Vehicle Technology (AVT)-313 activity Incompressible Laminar-to-Turbulent Flow Transition Study that focused on assessing the numerical and modeling accuracy of the γ−Reθ and γ transition models coupled to the k−ω Shear-Stress Transport (SST) two-equation eddy-viscosity model. Three different test cases involving nominally 2D flow configurations were selected: flow over a flat plate with two different levels of turbulence intensity at the inlet; flow around the Eppler 387 foil at a Reynolds number of 3×10^5 and angles of attack of 1 deg. and 7 deg. flow around the NACA 0015 foil at a Reynolds number of 1.8×10^5 and angles of attack of 5 deg. and10 deg. The flat plate flow conditions correspond to natural and by-pass transition, whereas the other two test cases include laminar separation bubbles that lead to separation-induced transition. For each test case, the selected quantities of interest include both integral and local flow quantities. Geometrically similar grids with a wide range of grid refinement ratios were generated for each of the test cases to allow the estimation of numerical uncertainties for all quantities of interest selected for this study. Several RANS flow solvers were used, employing common grids with the same boundary conditions and mathematical models. Therefore, it is possible to analyze the consistency of the results, i.e., to check if the intervals defined by the different numerical solutions with their respective uncertainties overlap with each other. Modeling errors can also be addressed for the selected flow quantities that have experimental data available. However, the experimental information available in these cases is not sufficient to guarantee that experiments and simulations are performed with the same settings. Nonetheless, the available experimental data is sufficient to guarantee that modeling errors are significantly reduced with the use of the transition models when compared to simulations performed using only the k−ω SST model.

CFD Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗