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At least 505 records · Page 28

The vertical distribution of Mars water vapor

Analysis of observations made from the Viking 1 Orbiter indicates that the water vapor over the Viking 1 landing site is uniformly mixed with the atmosphere and not concentrated near the surface. The analysis incorporates the effects of atmospheric scattering and explains why previous earth-based observations showed a strong diurnal variation in water content. It also explains the lack of an early morning fog and removes the necessity of daily exchange of large amounts of water between the surface and the atmosphere. A water vapor volume mixing ratio of 1.5 x 10 to the -4th is inferred for the Viking 1 site in late summer.

Davies, D. W.↗

Analysis prcedures for ROSAT XRT/PSPC observations of extended objects and the diffuse background

Proper reduction of ROSAT observations of extended sources or the diffuse background requires techniques that are quite different from the standard point-source analysis. We describe in detail an appropriate set of procedures for this purpose for the X-ray Telescope (XRT), Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC). We define a standard set of pulse-height bands recommended for analyzing extended structure and describe the use of detector efficiency maps for proper flat-fielding of images. Sources of noncosmic background contamination and their modeling and subtraction are discussed and demonstrated. IDL routines for implementing these data reduction procedures are being made available to the community through the ROSAT IDL library maintained at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).

Snowden, S. L.↗

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Koster, R.↗

Modelling the Soft X-Ray and EUV Emission in Classical Novae: EUVE and ROSAT Observations of V1974 Cygni

We have conducted an extensive analysis of the observability of Classical Novae with the EUVE Lex/B and Al/Ti/C detectors. Predicted count rates have been computed using optically thin, isothermal plasma models for solar and metal-rich compositions, and hot ONeMg white dwarf model atmospheres. We find EUVE to be quite sensitive to both the EUV and soft X-ray emission emitted by the underlying hot white dwarf during novae outbursts, except for the coolest temperatures with very high intervening hydrogen column density. These results are used to interpret the emission detected during the EUVE all-sky survey of Nova Cygni 1992 (approx. = V1974 Cyg), 279-290 days after visual maximum. We find the best fit to the observed emission from V1974 Cyg arises from a hot ONeMg white dwarf with surface temperature approx. 4 x l0(exp 5) K and a mas of approx. 1.2 solar mass, and derive an interstellar hydrogen column density of approx. 3 x 10(exp 21)/sq cm. Virtually all this emission arises from supersoft X-rays rather than the EUV. We also report the detection of V1974 Cyg with the EUVE Deep Survey detector at 549 days after visual maximum. This observation is compatible with the above properties, indicating that the mechanism responsible for the soft X-ray emission, connected with the underlying white dwarf, had not yet entirely turned off. We also present analysis of a ROSAT PSPC observation which is contemporaneous with the EUVE survey observations; this independently confirms the high column density we derived from the EUVE survey observation. Light curves for the EUVE and ROSAT observations are presented. Statistical tests for variability show that all of these observations are indeed highly variable over various time scales. The EUVE survey data shows one day variations, the EUVE DS data show approx. 30 minute fluctuations, while the ROSAT data vary rapidly on time scales of seconds. The EUVE data shows no periodic variability on any time scale. The implications of the rapid variability are briefly discussed.

Stringfellow, Guy S.↗

Neutrinos from the Galactic Center Hosting a Hypernova Remnant

Similar to star-forming galaxies or starburst galaxies, star-forming regions in our Galaxy can host cosmic-ray (CR) accelerators and rich gas as targets of hadronuclear interaction. By our estimations, the IceCube neutrino observatory might detect muon neutrinos from a CR accelerator associated with a molecular cloud complex in our Galaxy. The associated high-energy gamma-ray emission might be observed by the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), High-Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma-Ray Observatory (HAWC), and Large High Altitude Air Shower Observatory (LHAASO). Furthermore, taking the Galactic Center (GC) region as an example, we assume that a hypernova exploded in the past in the GC. We simulate the acceleration of CRs in the hypernova remnant (HNR) as well as their confinement and escape. The high-energy protons escape from the HNR, diffuse around the GC, interact with molecular clouds, and then produce gamma-rays and neutrinos. In the optimal cases, the GC would be a promising 100 TeV gamma-ray source for LHAASO’s one-month observation. We propose that neutrino-induced searching for starting track-like and high-energy starting events (HESEs) observed by IceCube, from the GC region with a radius of 1°.8, would help us discover the particle accelerator in the GC or constrain our models. Under the constraint from high-energy gamma-ray observations by the H.E.S.S. telescope, we estimate the exposure time needed to make a significant discovery for the optimal cases. The analysis combining observations of IceCube and ANTARES, starting track-like events and HESEs, future observations by neutrino detectors IceCube-Gen2 and KM3net, and gamma-ray telescopes CTA, HAWC, and LHAASO would help to constrain our models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Signatures of solar wind latitudinal structure in interplanetary Lyman-alpha emissions - Mariner 10 observations

A detailed analysis is conducted which shows that signatures in the interplanetary Lyman-alpha emissions observed in three different data sets from Mariner 10 (corresponding to different locations of the spacecraft) provide firm evidence that the intensity departures are correlated with a decrease in solar wind flux with increasing latitude. It is suggested that observations of the interplanetary emission can be used to monitor average solar wind activity at high latitudes. The asymmetry in the solar radiation field as a source of observed departures in L-alpha data is considered and attention is given to the interstellar hydrogen and helium density.

Kumar, S.↗

LDEF archival system plan

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has provided the first significant opportunity to extensively study the space environment and its effects upon spacecraft systems and materials. The long-term value of the data obtained from LDEF, which is applicable to a wide range of areas including space environment definition, space environmental effects, and spacecraft design, will depend upon the system developed to archive and retrieve the data. Therefore, in addition to the large effort undertaken to analyze LDEF data, a substantial effort is also necessary in order to retain and disseminate LDEF resources for future research and design. W. J. Schafer Associates, Inc., has a task subcontract to develop the LDEF archival system. The LDEF resources include data, hardware, photographic records, and publications which cover the 20-year history of LDEF from concept design through data analysis. Chronologically, prelaunch resources include documentation of facility and experiment development, testing integration, and operation. Post-retrieval resources are the observations, testing, analysis, and publications since the January 1990 retrieval of LDEF. A third set of resources is the experiment and facility hardware and specimens, including more than 10,000 test specimens flown on LDEF and subsequently divided and distributed among investigators at numerous laboratories. Many valuable science and technology investigations were undertaken with LDEF experiments and hardware, and many more investigations are being identified in areas not yet explored. LDEF data applications encompass primarily low-Earth orbit spacecraft and structures. The nearly six-year space exposure of LDEF has provided data to evaluate materials, systems, and living specimens exposed to radiation, meteoroids, debris, and other constituents of the low-Earth environment. Structural, mechanical, electrical, optical, and thermal systems were studied, and materials with applications in all aspects of space systems were exposed to the space environment. The objectives of the LDEF archival system are to maintain the existing LDEF hardware, data, analysis, publications, and photographs as a long term resource, and to provide a quick and simple mechanism by which LDEF resources can be identified, located, and applied.

Wilson, Brenda K.↗

RE 1016-053 - A pre-cataclysmic binary, and the first extreme ultraviolet and X-ray detections of a DAO white dwarf

Photometric observations and analysis of the optical, UV, EUV, and X-ray spectra are presented for the EUV/X-ray source RE 1016-53. Multiwavelength observations of RE 1016-53 point out that it is a precataclysmic binary. Optical spectra exhibit the steep blue continuum and Balmer absorption typical of a hot white dwarf, but there are bright, narrow emission lines of H I, He I, and Ca II superimposed on this. The white dwarf component, with T (eff) = 55,800 +/- 1000 K and log g = 7.81 +/- 0.007, dominates the spectrum from the optical to the EUV/X-ray. An He II 4686 A absorption line suggests that the white dwarf is a hydrogen-helium (DAO) hybrid star. Four of the five precataclysmic binaries with white dwarfs with T(eff) greater than 40,000 K appear to be DAOs. A mass of 0.57 +/- 0.003 solar mass has been derived.

Tweedy, R. W.↗

Optimal gains for a single polar orbiting satellite

Gains are the spatial weighting of an observation in its neighborhood versus the local values of a model prediction. They are the key to data assimilation, as they are the direct measure of how the data are used to guide the model. As derived in the broad context of data assimilation by Kalman and in the context of meteorology, for example, by Rutherford, the optimal gains are functions of the prediction error covariances between the observation and analysis points. Kalman introduced a very powerful technique that allows one to calculate these optimal gains at the time of each observation. Unfortunately, this technique is both computationally expensive and often numerically unstable for dynamical systems of the magnitude of meteorological models, and thus is unsuited for use in PMIRR data assimilation. However, the optimal gains as calculated by a Kalman filter do reach a steady state for regular observing patterns like that of a satellite. In this steady state, the gains are constants in time, and thus could conceivably be computed off-line. These steady-state Kalman gains (i.e., Wiener gains) would yield optimal performance without the computational burden of true Kalman filtering. We proposed to use this type of constant-in-time Wiener gain for the assimilation of data from PMIRR and Mars Observer.

Banfield, Don↗

National Ice Center Visiting Scientist Program

The objectives of the work done by Dr. Kim Partington were to manage NASA's polar research program, including its strategic direction, research funding and interagency and international collaborations. The objectives of the UCAR Visiting Scientist Program at the National Ice Center (NIC) are to: (1) Manage a visiting scientist program for the NIC Science Center in support of the mission of the NIC; (2) Provide a pool of researchers who will share expertise with the NIC and the science community; (3) Facilitate communications between the research and operational communities for the purpose of identifying work ready for validation and transition to an operational environment; and (4) Act as a focus for interagency cooperation. The NIC mission is to provide worldwide operational sea ice analyses and forecasts for the armed forces of the US and allied nations, the Departments of Commerce and Transportation, and other US Government and international agencies, and the civil sector. The NIC produces these analyses and forecasts of Arctic, Antarctic, Great Lakes, and Chesapeake Bay ice conditions to support customers with global, regional, and tactical scale interests. The NIC regularly deploys Naval Ice Center NAVICECEN Ice Reconnaissance personnel to the Arctic and Antarctica in order to perform aerial ice observation and analysis in support of NIC customers. NIC ice data are a key part of the US contribution to international global climate and ocean observing systems.

Austin, Meg↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Simulated Remote Sensing Polarimetric Observations Over Snow

This study presents a detailed theoretical assessment of the information content of passive polarimetric observations over snow scenes, using a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method. Conventional sensitivity studies focus on varying a single parameter while keeping all other parameters fixed. In contrast, the GSA correctly addresses the covariance of state parameters across their entire parameter space, hence favoring a more correct interpretation of inversion algorithms and the optimal design of their state vectors. The forward simulations exploit a vector radiative transfer model to obtain the Stokes vector emerging at the top of the atmosphere for different solar zenith angles, when the bottom boundary consists of a vertically resolved snowpack of non-spherical grains. The presence of light-absorbing particulates (LAPs), either embedded in the snow or aloft in the atmosphere above in the form of aerosols, is also considered. The results are presented for a set of wavelengths spanning the visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR) region of the spectrum. The GSA correctly captures the expected, high sensitivity of the reflectance to LAPs in the VIS–NIR and to grain size at different depths in the snowpack in the NIR–SWIR. With adequate viewing geometries, mono-angle measurements of total reflectance in the VIS–SWIR (akin to those of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS) resolve grain size in the top layer of the snowpack sufficiently well. The addition of multi-angle polarimetric observations in the VIS–NIR provides information on grain shape and microscale roughness. The simultaneous sensitivity in the VIS–NIR to both aerosols and snow-embedded impurities can be disentangled by extending the spectral range to the SWIR, which contains information on aerosol optical depth while remaining essentially unaffected when the same particulates are mixed with the snow. Multi-angle polarimetric observations can therefore (i) effectively partition LAPs between the atmosphere and the surface, which represents a notorious challenge for snow remote sensing based on measurements of total reflectance only and (ii) lead to better estimates of grain shape and roughness and, in turn, the asymmetry parameter, which is critical for the determination of albedo. The retrieval uncertainties are minimized when the degree of linear polarization is used in place of the polarized reflectance. The Sobol indices, which are the main metric for the GSA, were used to select the state parameters in retrievals performed on data simulated for multiple instrument configurations. Improvements in retrieval quality with the addition of measurements of polarization, multi-angle views, and different spectral channels reflect the information content, identified by the Sobol indices, relative to each configuration. The results encourage the development of new remote sensing algorithms that fully leverage multi-angle and polarimetric capabilities of modern remote sensors. They can also aid flight planning activities, since the optimal exploitation of the information content of multi-angle measurements depends on the viewing geometry. The better characterization of surface and atmospheric parameters in snow-covered regions advances research opportunities for scientists of the cryosphere and ultimately benefits albedo estimates in climate models.

remote sensing↗

LASSO observations at McDonald and OCA/CERGA: A preliminary analysis

The Laser Synchronization from Synchronous Orbit (LASSO) observations between USA and Europe were made possible with the move of Meteosat 3/P2 toward 50 deg W. Two Lunar Laser Ranging stations participated into the observations: the MLRS at McDonald Observatory (Texas, USA) and OCA/CERGA (Grasse, France). Common sessions were performed since 30 Apr. 1992, and will be continued up to the next Meteosat 3/P2 move further West (planned for January 1993). The preliminary analysis made with the data already collected by the end of Nov. 1992 shows that the precision which can be obtained from LASSO is better than 100 ps, the accuracy depending on how well the stations maintain their time metrology, as well as on the quality of the calibration (still to be made.) For extracting such a precision from the data, the processing has been drastically changed compared to the initial LASSO data analysis. It takes into account all the measurements made, timings on board, and echoes at each station. This complete use of the data increased dramatically the confidence into the synchronization results.

Veillet, CH.↗

Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

Here we report in the spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

[Stellar Occultation Studies of Small Bodies in the Outer Solar System: Accomplishments, Status, and Plans]

Bodies residing in the outer solar system exhibit unique physical processes, and some of the lessons learned from them can be applied to understanding what occurred in the outer solar system during its formation and early evolution. Pluto, the largest known Kuiper Belt object (KBO), and its near twin Triton--an ex-KBO that has been captured by Neptune--have nitrogen atmospheres that are in vapor-pressure equilibrium with surface ice. These atmospheres are most sensitively probed from Earth by the technique of Stellar occultations, which can provide the temperature and pressure profiles of these atmospheres at a spatial resolution of a few kilometers. Recent results from occultations show that the surface pressure of Triton's atmosphere has been increasing and that the shape of the atmosphere deviates from its expected spherical figure. With the occultation technique we can also learn the sizes of smaller bodies that have formed in the outer solar system: Charon, the Centaurs, and KBOs. Our proposed program involves identifying occultation candidates, predicting occultations, observing occultations, analysis of the data, and synthesis of the occultation results with other data. The main goals for our proposed work are to (i) further observe occultations by Triton with the objectives of understanding its pressure changes, distortion, and enigmatic thermal structure (ii) determine whether the abrupt drop in Pluto's stellar occultation light curve is caused by a sharp thermal gradient near its surface or by atmospheric haze, (iii) further observations to characterize the potential collapse of Pluto's atmosphere as it recedes from the sun (information that should be of interest to the Pluto-Kuiper Express), ( iv ) determine Charon's radius more accurately than can be done with the mutual events to derive a better estimate of Charon's density, and ( v ) directly determine the size (and albedo) of Centaurs with the goal of more accurately estimating the sizes of KBOS.

Elliott, James↗

Investigating Wintertime GPM-IMERG Precipitation in the North Atlantic

Precipitation is expected to increase in a warming climate, which can have profound impacts on local and global hydrologic budgets. However, the precipitation in high latitudes remains highly uncertain. We compare wintertime precipitation in the North Atlantic using GPM-IMERG, GPCP, MERRA-2 and ERA5 between 2000–2019 and show that while interannual variations between products are similar, large differences in magnitudes exist, specifically in areas of higher precipitation where Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) produces an excess of 2 mm day−1. EOF analysis demonstrates observations and reanalyses show similar spatial variability in the most dominant precipitation patterns and are highly correlated (r = −0.6) with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Analysis of IMERG extreme precipitation further shows that it is most densely populated in this same area where large discrepancies in magnitudes between products exist. IMERG extreme precipitation was found to drive the monthly anomalies. Future work needs to be focused on extreme precipitation characteristics, patterns and the driving atmospheric factors.

Linette Boisvert↗

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Observations of IMF and seasonal effects in high-latitude convection

Strong interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and seasonal effects in the convection of nightside ionospheric plasma are described. The findings are based on a statistical analysis of observations made with the Johns Hopkins University/ Applied Physics Lab (JHU/APL) HF radar located at Goose Bay, Labrador. For positive sign of the IMF dusk-dawn component, By greater than 0 the dawn cell is more crescent shaped and the dusk cell more round while for BY less than 0 these pairings of size and shape are reversed. The more extreme crescent /round cell dichotomy is obtained for BY greater than 0. The return flows associated with the crescent-shaped cell dominate at midnight MLT (magnetic local time); the reversal in the zonal velocity in the 67 deg-69 deg lambda (magnetic latitude) interval occurs 2.5 hr earlier in summer than in winter. The maximum effects are obtained on the nightside for the pairings By greater than 0, summer and BY less than 0, winter; the first produces the more structured cell in the morning, the second in the evening, and this cell dominates the return flow at midnight. The difference in the zonal flow reversals for these pairings exceeds 4 hr in MLT.

Ruohoniemi, J. M.↗

From the Cluster Temperature Function to the Mass Function at Low Z

The project consists of three X-ray Multimirror Mission (XMM) observations of the hot, nearby galaxy cluster Triangulum Australis (one pointing to the cluster center and two offsets). The major goal of the project is to obtain an accurate radial gas temperature profile out to large radii and derive the total gravitating mass within the radius of over density 500. A secondary goal is to obtain a detailed two-dimensional gas temperature map of the central region. We have recently received the central pointing (of the two CDROMs received, one contains the central pointing and the other, a zero-exposure dummy observation). The analysis of the data at hand is underway with the aim of deriving the two-dimensional temperature map. At present, we have to limit quantitative analysis to the EPIC-MOS data because of the absence of the necessary calibration products for the Extended Full Frame mode used for EPIC-pn in these observations. We anticipate the arrival of the data from the remaining two offset pointings in the near future, after which we will be able to undertake the total mass derivation. Money from this year's installment of the grant was partially spent on an upgrade of the computer used for the above data analysis, and on travel to a conference that extensively discussed the XMM calibration issues.

Markevitch, Maxim↗