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Results for “Optimization Under Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-objective Decisions on Integrated Energy Systems Planning and Operation for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply

Unlike the power sector—which can transmit electricity over long distances via established grids—the industrial sector poses a unique challenge due to its geographically concentrated large-scale heat processes. Enhancing energy security in such industrial parks provides a dual benefit: reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices and improved economic viability, largely driven by economies of scale in energy supply and distribution. This study presents a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of a nuclear energy hub, employing a mechanism-focused approach to evaluate uncertainties in operational strategies and capacity optimization. Load profiles from three major energy intesive industries—chemical, refinery, and steelmaking—are examined, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities for nuclear energy integration. We adopt a multi-objective optimization framework, converting multiple objectives into a single objective function through the e-constraint method. The findings highlight clear trade-offs between system conditions and varying levels of energy independence. Overall, this analysis is granular enough to address industry-specific concerns yet sufficiently generalizable to provide actionable insights into the feasibility of nuclear-based clean heat solutions for the industrial sector.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-guided logistic classification for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining

This paper describes a physics-guided logistic classification method for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining. Tool life is modeled using a classification method since the exact tool life cannot be measured in a typical production environment where tool wear can only be directly measured when the tool is replaced. Here, in this study, laboratory tool wear experiments are used to simulate tool wear data normally collected during part production. Two states are defined: tool not worn (class 0) and tool worn (class 1). The non-linear reduction in tool life with cutting speed is modeled by applying a logarithmic transformation to the inputs for the logistic classification model. A method for interpretability of the logistic model coefficients is provided by comparison with the empirical Taylor tool life model. The method is validated using tool wear experiments for milling. Results show that the physics-guided logistic classification method can predict tool life using limited datasets. A method for pre-process optimization of machining parameters using a probabilistic machining cost model is presented. The proposed method offers a robust and practical approach to tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in a production environment.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

MPC4CLR (Model-Predictive-Control-for-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Power-Distribution-Systems) [SWR-22-24]

Model predictive control (MPC) is a system or process control technique for making decisions under uncertainty via rolling look-ahead optimizations at each control step where only the current step decisions are applied, and the rest are discarded. In this work, we developed an MPC for a critical load restoration (CLR) in power distribution systems to recover system service (electricity delivery) following an extreme event-triggered substation outage. The method considers the problem of controlling distributed energy resources (DERs) of the distribution system with the objective of achieving maximum load pick up while satisfying distribution network flow and voltage constraints. A linearized optimal power flow (OPF) model is employed to represent the physics of the network. The problem formulation is augmented with a ramping (up) reserve product for the DERs to ensure improved and upward monotonic load restoration as time evolves. Simulation analysis and performance tests are performed using a modified IEEE 13-bus test feeder integrated with wind, solar, microturbine, and energy storage battery. The software is developed using various software packages in Julia and Python. The MPC model is implemented using the JuMP optimization language in Julia while the data analytics including renewable generation and load demand forecasts, running the MPC simulation and visualizations is performed in Python.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conceptual Design of a Water Tank Critical Facility for SPARC

Critical experiments, sometimes referred to zero-power reactors, are crucial tools in developing and validating nuclear physics predictions and thus an indispensable capability to ensure criticality safety during all parts of the nuclear fuel cycle and in reducing uncertainties in reactor physics predictions toward optimizing nuclear energy production. The System Physics Advanced Reactor Facility (SPARC) project was recently initiated to enable large-scale criticality experiments using a horizontal split table machine well suited toward solid core materials systems (fuel, moderator, reflector). The facility selected for this mission was a former pool-type research reactor building and thus also well suited toward a second critical experiment capability able to house full-size light-water reactor (LWR) fuel bundles. A conceptual design study was undertaken to review past water tank critical experiments used for LWR physics experiments and to develop an early engineering design for a new critical assembly tank (CAT). The work described here shows that a relatively simple CAT concept can be constructed and deployed in the SPARC facility to meet the urgent demands for new critical experiments on advanced LWR fuel bundles designs. The SPARC facility layout is conducive to the receipt and upending of LWR fuel bundles using existing containers and equipment from the LWR industry. The facility’s overhead crane can then be used to handle fuel bundles and place them in a vertical storage rack or in the CAT for critical experiments, both of which fit within the building’s “open basement” alongside other equipment planned for SPARC and the horizontal split table. A slightly lower area in the basement can serve as a large drain tank so that fail-safe valves drain the CAT reactor tank for safe shutdown. Neutronic configurations were determined where a 3 × 3 array of fuel bundles can be surrounded by full-length “loose rods” to adjust reactivity so that critical is achieved when the bundles are fully submerged. Viable configurations were determined for both pressurized- and boiling-water-reactor-type fuel bundles. This design concept was used to develop an early planning basis for establishing the CAT capability alongside the otherwise planned SPARC project in order to help streamline the process. Recent presidential executive orders have highlighted the need to achieve power uprates in LWR plants and the CAT capability will be a crucial element of these initiatives. Based on the work described herein, it is recommended that an earnest and timely project begin in order to establish this urgently needed capability.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

User Manual - HydraGNN v5.0: Distributed Implementation of Multi-Tasking Graph Neural Networks

This document serves as the user manual for HydraGNN v5.0, a scalable graph neural network (GNN) architecture for simultaneous prediction of multiple target properties using multi-task learning (MTL). This version of HydraGNN has been developed primarily to support the development, training, and deployment of predictive graph-based deep learning (DL) models for atomistic materials modeling. HydraGNN is templated over 13 message-passing policies, including invariant models (GIN, PNA, PNAPlus, GAT, MFC, CGCNN, SAGE, SchNet, DimeNet) and equivariant models (EGNN, PNAEq, PAINN, MACE), and supports distributed training via distributed data parallelism (DDP), DeepSpeed, and Fully Sharded Data Parallelism (FSDP) on leadership-class supercomputers. Although HydraGNN can be applied to problems beyond atomistic materials modeling, its current use is confined to homogeneous graphs. Additional capabilities include machine-learned interatomic potentials with energy-conserving forces, General, Powerful, and Scalable Graph Transformer (GraphGPS) global attention, periodic boundary conditions, hyperparameter optimization, mixed-precision training, and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Robust control of flexible space vehicles with minimum structural excitation: On-off pulse control of flexible space vehicles

Both feedback and feedforward control approaches for uncertain dynamical systems (in particular, with uncertainty in structural mode frequency) are investigated. The control objective is to achieve a fast settling time (high performance) and robustness (insensitivity) to plant uncertainty. Preshaping of an ideal, time optimal control input using a tapped-delay filter is shown to provide a fast settling time with robust performance. A robust, non-minimum-phase feedback controller is synthesized with particular emphasis on its proper implementation for a non-zero set-point control problem. It is shown that a properly designed, feedback controller performs well, as compared with a time optimal open loop controller with special preshaping for performance robustness. Also included are two separate papers by the same authors on this subject.

Wie, Bong↗
NASA NTRS1997

Computational Infrastructure for Engine Structural Performance Simulation

Select computer codes developed over the years to simulate specific aspects of engine structures are described. These codes include blade impact integrated multidisciplinary analysis and optimization, progressive structural fracture, quantification of uncertainties for structural reliability and risk, benefits estimation of new technology insertion and hierarchical simulation of engine structures made from metal matrix and ceramic matrix composites. Collectively these codes constitute a unique infrastructure readiness to credibly evaluate new and future engine structural concepts throughout the development cycle from initial concept, to design and fabrication, to service performance and maintenance and repairs, and to retirement for cause and even to possible recycling. Stated differently, they provide 'virtual' concurrent engineering for engine structures total-life-cycle-cost.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Advances in Land Data Assimilation Systems

Assimilation of remotely sensed land surface observations into regional to global scale numerical models have the potential to significantly advance our ability, to assess, understand, and predict surface water, energy, and carbon cycles. This session seeks to assess the state-of-the-art in data assimilation methods for integrating land surface remote sensing and modeling, with a focus on practical applications and techniques. Assimilated land surface variables of interest include (but are not limited to, soil moisture, surface temperature, snowpack, streamflow, vegetation dynamics, and carbon storage. Contributions describing the development of practical land surface data assimilation methods, multivariate land surface data assimilation strategies, evaluation of the required accuracy and resolution of remote sensing observations, the effects of scale, process complexity, and uncertainty on data assimilation, and the optimal treatment of model and observation errors are encouraged.

Houser, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Intelligent Systems for Aerospace Engineering: An Overview

Intelligent systems are nature-inspired, mathematically sound, computationally intensive problem solving tools and methodologies that have become extremely important for advancing the current trends in information technology. Artificially intelligent systems currently utilize computers to emulate various faculties of human intelligence and biological metaphors. They use a combination of symbolic and sub-symbolic systems capable of evolving human cognitive skills and intelligence, not just systems capable of doing things humans do not do well. Intelligent systems are ideally suited for tasks such as search and optimization, pattern recognition and matching, planning, uncertainty management, control, and adaptation. In this paper, the intelligent system technologies and their application potential are highlighted via several examples.

Krishnakumar, Kalmanje↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Physics-Based Risk Tools Used to Analyze the International Space Station Electrical Power System Output

This paper describes the methods employed to apply probabilistic modeling techniques to the International Space Station (ISS) power system. These techniques were used to quantify the probabilistic variation in the power output, also called the response variable, due to variations (uncertainties) associated with knowledge of the influencing factors called the random variables. These uncertainties can be due to unknown environmental conditions, variation in the performance of electrical power system components or sensor tolerances. Uncertainties in these variables, cause corresponding variations in the power output, but the magnitude of that effect varies with the ISS operating conditions, e.g. whether or not the solar panels are actively tracking the sun. Therefore, it is important to quantify the influence of these uncertainties on the power output for optimizing the power available for experiments.

Patel, Bhogila M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Tracking capability for entry, descent and landing and its support to NASA Mars Exploration Rovers

This paper described a new capability recently deployed in the NASA Deep Space Network to support the entry, descent and landing of the two Mars Exploration Rovers - Spirit and Opportunity. This final segment of a 7-month journey was critical step in enabling successful mission operation. The EDL Data Analysis (EDA) equipment processed the open loop recording samples from the existing radio science receivers, extracted the MFSK-modulated tones, and provided information on the occurrence of associated events happened onboard spacecraft. The EDA software supported real-time as well as post pass processing. The design flexibility allowed the track to be divided into different segments, each could be processed with a configuration optimized for its signal conditions and uncertainties. The use of dynamic lock state concept enabled signal detection be done with minimum required computing power - less was spent when signal was steadily detected and more when signal fluctuated. With the server-client design, the EDA supported connections to different remote operation centers for monitor purpose. The paper also presented the field results from both Spirit and Opportunity landings. The detection were much better than anticipated. All critical event tones were seen in real time. Surprising detection of LCP signal was found with Spirit landing, resulted in a reconfiguration for Opportunity landing to maximize signal detection.

tracking↗
NASA NTRS2006

Hard and Soft Constraints in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

This paper proposes a framework for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements in the form of inequality constraints are present. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value and by sets of componentwise bounded uncertain variables. These models, which often arise in engineering problems, allow for a sharp mathematical manipulation. Constraints can be implemented in the hard sense, i.e., constraints must be satisfied for all parameter realizations in the uncertainty model, and in the soft sense, i.e., constraints can be violated by some realizations of the uncertain parameter. In regard to hard constraints, this methodology allows (i) to determine if a hard constraint can be satisfied for a given uncertainty model and constraint structure, (ii) to generate conclusive, formally verifiable reliability assessments that allow for unprejudiced comparisons of competing design alternatives and (iii) to identify the critical combination of uncertain parameters leading to constraint violations. In regard to soft constraints, the methodology allows the designer (i) to use probabilistic uncertainty models, (ii) to calculate upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation, and (iii) to efficiently estimate failure probabilities via a hybrid method. This method integrates the upper bounds, for which closed form expressions are derived, along with conditional sampling. In addition, an l(sub infinity) formulation for the efficient manipulation of hyper-rectangular sets is also proposed.

Crespo, L.uis G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Dimensional Calibration of Impact Dynamic Models

NASA Langley, under the Subsonic Rotary Wing Program, recently completed two helicopter tests in support of an in-house effort to study crashworthiness. As part of this effort, work is on-going to investigate model calibration approaches and calibration metrics for impact dynamics models. Model calibration of impact dynamics problems has traditionally assessed model adequacy by comparing time histories from analytical predictions to test at only a few critical locations. Although this approach provides for a direct measure of the model predictive capability, overall system behavior is only qualitatively assessed using full vehicle animations. In order to understand the spatial and temporal relationships of impact loads as they migrate throughout the structure, a more quantitative approach is needed. In this work impact shapes derived from simulated time history data are used to recommend sensor placement and to assess model adequacy using time based metrics and orthogonality multi-dimensional metrics. An approach for model calibration is presented that includes metric definitions, uncertainty bounds, parameter sensitivity, and numerical optimization to estimate parameters to reconcile test with analysis. The process is illustrated using simulated experiment data.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Near-Cloud Aerosol Properties from the 1 Km Resolution MODIS Ocean Product

This study examines aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds by analyzing high-resolution atmospheric correction parameters provided in the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) ocean color product. The study analyzes data from a 2 week long period of September in 10 years, covering a large area in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The results indicate that on the one hand, the Quality Assessment (QA) flags of the ocean color product successfully eliminate cloud-related uncertainties in ocean parameters such as chlorophyll content, but on the other hand, using the flags introduces a sampling bias in atmospheric products such as aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Angstrom exponent. Therefore, researchers need to select QA flags by balancing the risks of increased retrieval uncertainties and sampling biases. Using an optimal set of QA flags, the results reveal substantial increases in optical thickness near clouds-on average the increase is 50% for the roughly half of pixels within 5 km from clouds and is accompanied by a roughly matching increase in particle size. Theoretical simulations show that the 50% increase in 550nm AOT changes instantaneous direct aerosol radiative forcing by up to 8W/m2 and that the radiative impact is significantly larger if observed near-cloud changes are attributed to aerosol particles as opposed to undetected cloud particles. These results underline that accounting for near-cloud areas and understanding the causes of near-cloud particle changes are critical for accurate calculations of direct aerosol radiative forcing.

near-cloud aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2015

Observing System Simulations for Small Satellite Formations Estimating Bidirectional Reflectance

The bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) gives the reflectance of a target as a function of illumination geometry and viewing geometry, hence carries information about the anisotropy of the surface. BRDF is needed in remote sensing for the correction of view and illumination angle effects (for example in image standardization and mosaicing), for deriving albedo, for land cover classification, for cloud detection, for atmospheric correction, and other applications. However, current spaceborne instruments provide sparse angular sampling of BRDF and airborne instruments are limited in the spatial and temporal coverage. To fill the gaps in angular coverage within spatial, spectral and temporal requirements, we propose a new measurement technique: Use of small satellites in formation flight, each satellite with a VNIR (visible and near infrared) imaging spectrometer, to make multi-spectral, near-simultaneous measurements of every ground spot in the swath at multiple angles. This paper describes an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) to evaluate the proposed concept and select the optimal formation architecture that minimizes BRDF uncertainties. The variables of the OSSE are identified; number of satellites, measurement spread in the view zenith and relative azimuth with respect to solar plane, solar zenith angle, BRDF models and wavelength of reflection. Analyzing the sensitivity of BRDF estimation errors to the variables allow simplification of the OSSE, to enable its use to rapidly evaluate formation architectures. A 6-satellite formation is shown to produce lower BRDF estimation errors, purely in terms of angular sampling as evaluated by the OSSE, than a single spacecraft with 9 forward-aft sensors. We demonstrate the ability to use OSSEs to design small satellite formations as complements to flagship mission data. The formations can fill angular sampling gaps and enable better BRDF products than currently possible.

small satellite↗
NASA NTRS2022

Towards Run-Time Search for Real-World Multi-Agent Systems

Multi-agent systems (MAS) may encounter uncertainties in the form of unexpected environmental conditions, sub-optimal system configurations, and unplanned interactions between autonomous agents. The number of combinations of such uncertainties may be innumerable, however run-time testing may reduce the issues impacting such a system. We posit that search heuristics can augment a run-time testing process, in-situ, for a MAS. To support our position we discuss our in-progress experimental testbed to realize this goal and highlight challenges we anticipate for this domain.

Abigail C. Diller↗