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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A method for evaluating the funding of components of natural resource and conservation projects

Many public and private entities such as government agencies and private foundations have missions related to the improvement, protection, and sustainability of the environment. In pursuit of their missions, they fund projects with related outcomes. Typically, the funding scene consists of scarce funding dollars for the many project requests. In light of funding limitations and funder's search for innovative funding schemes, a method to support the allocation of scarce dollars among project components is presented. The proposed scheme has similarities to methods in the project selection literature but differs in its focus on project components and its connection to and enumeration of the universe of funding possibilities. The value of having access to the universe is demonstrated with illustrations. The presentation includes Excel implementations that should appeal to a broad spectrum of project evaluators and reviewers. Access to the space of funding possibilities facilitates a rich analysis of funding alternatives. - Highlights: • Method is given for allocating scarce funding dollars among competing projects. • Allocations are made to fund parts of projects • Proposed method provides access to the universe of funding possibilities. • Proposed method facilitates a rich analysis of funding possibilities. • Excel spreadsheet implementations are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating project level investment trends for the U.S. ESCO industry: 1990–2017

Energy efficiency is widely recognized as a cost-effective strategy to meet energy demand. The U.S. energy service company (ESCO) industry generates significant energy savings and other benefits through installing and maintaining energy efficiency, renewable and other types of projects. In this study, we evaluate factors that may explain trends in the economic performance of U.S. ESCO projects by analyzing project level data for ~7000 U.S. ESCO industry projects. We find that real project investment levels normalized for floor area have increased over time in ESCO projects across market segments. However, the dollar value of energy savings and other reported benefits have not kept pace with increases in real project investment levels over time. The latter have increased 100%–500% in various market segments from 1990 to 2017. We conduct an econometric analysis to decompose the drivers of these underlying trends. Number of measures and a changing mix of conservation measures are the primary factors that correlate with the long-term increase in project investment levels. However, our analysis is only able to account for less than 50% of the increase in real investment levels. Finally, we discuss additional factors, and conclude discussing policy implications and outlining long-term research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections

Abstract To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by one global climate model, the MPI‐ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5°C–1.0°C. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4°C–5°C greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5°C–6°C, amounts that are on par with the warming due to GHG‐forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.

Bukovsky, Melissa S.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Metric freeness and projectivity for classical and quantum normed modules

In functional analysis, there are several diverse approaches to the notion of projective module. We show that a certain general categorical scheme contains all basic versions as special cases. In this scheme, the notion of free object comes to the foreground, and, in the best categories, projective objects are precisely retracts of free ones. We are especially interested in the so-called metric version of projectivity and characterize the metrically free classical and quantum (= operator) normed modules. Informally speaking, so-called extremal projectivity, which was known earlier, is interpreted as a kind of 'asymptotical metric projectivity'. In addition, we answer the following specific question in the geometry of normed spaces: what is the structure of metrically projective modules in the simplest case of normed spaces? We prove that metrically projective normed spaces are precisely the subspaces of l{sub 1}(M) (where M is a set) that are denoted by l{sub 1}{sup 0}(M) and consist of finitely supported functions. Thus, in this case, projectivity coincides with freeness. Bibliography: 28 titles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spectroscopic quantification of projection effects in the SDSS redMaPPer galaxy cluster catalogue

ABSTRACT Projection effects, whereby galaxies along the line of sight to a galaxy cluster are mistakenly associated with the cluster halo, present a significant challenge for optical cluster cosmology. We use statistically representative spectral coverage of luminous galaxies to investigate how projection effects impact the low-redshift limit of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) redMaPPer galaxy cluster catalogue. Spectroscopic redshifts enable us to differentiate true cluster members from false positives and determine the fraction of candidate cluster members viewed in projection. Our main results can be summarized as follows: first, we show that a simple double-Gaussian model can be used to describe the distribution of line-of-sight velocities in the redMaPPer sample; secondly, the incidence of projection effects is substantial, accounting for ∼16 per cent of the weighted richness for the lowest richness objects; thirdly, projection effects are a strong function of richness, with the contribution in the highest richness bin being several times smaller than for low-richness objects; fourthly, our measurement has a similar amplitude to state-of-the-art models, but finds a steeper dependence of projection effects on richness than these models; and fifthly, the slope of the observed velocity dispersion–richness relation, corrected for projection effects, implies an approximately linear relationship between the true, three-dimensional halo mass and three-dimensional richness. Our results provide a robust, empirical description of the impact of projection effects on the SDSS redMaPPer cluster sample and exemplify the synergies between optical imaging and spectroscopic data for studies of galaxy cluster astrophysics and cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Grassmannian Atlas: A General Framework for Exploring Linear Projections of High-Dimensional Data

Linear projections are one of the most common approaches to visualize high-dimensional data. Since the space of possible projections is large, existing systems usually select a small set of interesting projections by ranking a large set of candidate projections based on a chosen quality measure. However, while highly ranked projections can be informative, some lower ranked ones could offer important complementary information. Therefore, selection based on ranking may miss projections that are important to provide a global picture of the data. Here, the proposed work fills this gap by presenting the Grassmannian Atlas, a framework that captures the global structures of quality measures in the space of all projections, which enables a systematic exploration of many complementary projections and provides new insights into the properties of existing quality measures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

A virtual trial framework for quantifying the detectability of masses in breast tomosynthesis projection data

Purpose: Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a promising breast cancer screening tool that has already begun making inroads into clinical practice. However, there is ongoing debate over how to quantitatively evaluate and optimize these systems, because different definitions of image quality can lead to different optimal design strategies. Powerful and accurate tools are desired to extend our understanding of DBT system optimization and validate published design principles. Methods: The authors developed a virtual trial framework for task-specific DBT assessment that uses digital phantoms, open-source x-ray transport codes, and a projection-space, spatial-domain observer model for quantitative system evaluation. The authors considered evaluation of reconstruction algorithms as a separate problem and focused on the information content in the raw, unfiltered projection images. Specifically, the authors investigated the effects of scan angle and number of angular projections on detectability of a small (3 mm diameter) signal embedded in randomly-varying anatomical backgrounds. Detectability was measured by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Experiments were repeated for three test cases where the detectability-limiting factor was anatomical variability, quantum noise, or electronic noise. The authors also juxtaposed the virtual trial framework with other published studies to illustrate its advantages and disadvantages. Results: The large number of variables in a virtual DBT study make it difficult to directly compare different authors' results, so each result must be interpreted within the context of the specific virtual trial framework. The following results apply to 25% density phantoms with 5.15 cm compressed thickness and 500 {mu}m{sup 3} voxels (larger 500 {mu}m{sup 2} detector pixels were used to avoid voxel-edge artifacts): 1. For raw, unfiltered projection images in the anatomical-variability-limited regime, AUC appeared to remain constant or increase slightly with scan angle. 2. In the same regime, when the authors fixed the scan angle, AUC increased asymptotically with the number of projections. The threshold number of projections for asymptotic AUC performance depended on the scan angle. In the quantum- and electronic-noise dominant regimes, AUC behaviors as a function of scan angle and number of projections sometimes differed from the anatomy-limited regime. For example, with a fixed scan angle, AUC generally decreased with the number of projections in the electronic-noise dominant regime. These results are intended to demonstrate the capabilities of the virtual trial framework, not to be used as optimization rules for DBT. Conclusions: The authors have demonstrated a novel simulation framework and tools for evaluating DBT systems in an objective, task-specific manner. This framework facilitates further investigation of image quality tradeoffs in DBT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Spatial frequency spectrum of the x-ray scatter distribution in CBCT projections

Purpose: X-ray scatter is a source of significant image quality loss in cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The use of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations separating primary and scattered photons has allowed the structure and nature of the scatter distribution in CBCT to become better elucidated. This work seeks to quantify the structure and determine a suitable basis function for the scatter distribution by examining its spectral components using Fourier analysis.Methods: The scatter distribution projection data were simulated using a CBCT MC model based on the EGSnrc code. CBCT projection data, with separated primary and scatter signal, were generated for a 30.6 cm diameter water cylinder [single angle projection with varying axis-to-detector distance (ADD) and bowtie filters] and two anthropomorphic phantoms (head and pelvis, 360 projections sampled every 1°, with and without a compensator). The Fourier transform of the resulting scatter distributions was computed and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. A novel metric called the scatter frequency width (SFW) is introduced to determine the scatter distribution's frequency content. The frequency content results are used to determine a set basis functions, consisting of low-frequency sine and cosine functions, to fit and denoise the scatter distribution generated from MC simulations using a reduced number of photons and projections. The signal recovery is implemented using Fourier filtering (low-pass Butterworth filter) and interpolation. Estimates of the scatter distribution are used to correct and reconstruct simulated projections.Results: The spatial and angular frequencies are contained within a maximum frequency of 0.1 cm{sup −1} and 7/(2π) rad{sup −1} for the imaging scenarios examined, with these values varying depending on the object and imaging setup (e.g., ADD and compensator). These data indicate spatial and angular sampling every 5 cm and π/7 rad (∼25°) can be used to properly capture the scatter distribution, with reduced sampling possible depending on the imaging scenario. Using a low-pass Butterworth filter, tuned with the SFW values, to denoise the scatter projection data generated from MC simulations using 10{sup 6} photons resulted in an error reduction of greater than 85% for the estimating scatter in single and multiple projections. Analysis showed that the use of a compensator helped reduce the error in estimating the scatter distribution from limited photon simulations by more than 37% when compared to the case without a compensator for the head and pelvis phantoms. Reconstructions of simulated head phantom projections corrected by the filtered and interpolated scatter estimates showed improvements in overall image quality.Conclusions: The spatial frequency content of the scatter distribution in CBCT is found to be contained within the low frequency domain. The frequency content is modulated both by object and imaging parameters (ADD and compensator). The low-frequency nature of the scatter distribution allows for a limited set of sine and cosine basis functions to be used to accurately represent the scatter signal in the presence of noise and reduced data sampling decreasing MC based scatter estimation time. Compensator induced modulation of the scatter distribution reduces the frequency content and improves the fitting results.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

A technique for estimating 4D-CBCT using prior knowledge and limited-angle projections

Purpose: To develop a technique to estimate onboard 4D-CBCT using prior information and limited-angle projections for potential 4D target verification of lung radiotherapy.Methods: Each phase of onboard 4D-CBCT is considered as a deformation from one selected phase (prior volume) of the planning 4D-CT. The deformation field maps (DFMs) are solved using a motion modeling and free-form deformation (MM-FD) technique. In the MM-FD technique, the DFMs are estimated using a motion model which is extracted from planning 4D-CT based on principal component analysis (PCA). The motion model parameters are optimized by matching the digitally reconstructed radiographs of the deformed volumes to the limited-angle onboard projections (data fidelity constraint). Afterward, the estimated DFMs are fine-tuned using a FD model based on data fidelity constraint and deformation energy minimization. The 4D digital extended-cardiac-torso phantom was used to evaluate the MM-FD technique. A lung patient with a 30 mm diameter lesion was simulated with various anatomical and respirational changes from planning 4D-CT to onboard volume, including changes of respiration amplitude, lesion size and lesion average-position, and phase shift between lesion and body respiratory cycle. The lesions were contoured in both the estimated and “ground-truth” onboard 4D-CBCT for comparison. 3D volume percentage-difference (VPD) and center-of-mass shift (COMS) were calculated to evaluate the estimation accuracy of three techniques: MM-FD, MM-only, and FD-only. Different onboard projection acquisition scenarios and projection noise levels were simulated to investigate their effects on the estimation accuracy.Results: For all simulated patient and projection acquisition scenarios, the mean VPD (±S.D.)/COMS (±S.D.) between lesions in prior images and “ground-truth” onboard images were 136.11% (±42.76%)/15.5 mm (±3.9 mm). Using orthogonal-view 15°-each scan angle, the mean VPD/COMS between the lesion in estimated and “ground-truth” onboard images for MM-only, FD-only, and MM-FD techniques were 60.10% (±27.17%)/4.9 mm (±3.0 mm), 96.07% (±31.48%)/12.1 mm (±3.9 mm) and 11.45% (±9.37%)/1.3 mm (±1.3 mm), respectively. For orthogonal-view 30°-each scan angle, the corresponding results were 59.16% (±26.66%)/4.9 mm (±3.0 mm), 75.98% (±27.21%)/9.9 mm (±4.0 mm), and 5.22% (±2.12%)/0.5 mm (±0.4 mm). For single-view scan angles of 3°, 30°, and 60°, the results for MM-FD technique were 32.77% (±17.87%)/3.2 mm (±2.2 mm), 24.57% (±18.18%)/2.9 mm (±2.0 mm), and 10.48% (±9.50%)/1.1 mm (±1.3 mm), respectively. For projection angular-sampling-intervals of 0.6°, 1.2°, and 2.5° with the orthogonal-view 30°-each scan angle, the MM-FD technique generated similar VPD (maximum deviation 2.91%) and COMS (maximum deviation 0.6 mm), while sparser sampling yielded larger VPD/COMS. With equal number of projections, the estimation results using scattered 360° scan angle were slightly better than those using orthogonal-view 30°-each scan angle. The estimation accuracy of MM-FD technique declined as noise level increased.Conclusions: The MM-FD technique substantially improves the estimation accuracy for onboard 4D-CBCT using prior planning 4D-CT and limited-angle projections, compared to the MM-only and FD-only techniques. It can potentially be used for the inter/intrafractional 4D-localization verification.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-I-20: Dead Time Count Loss Compensation in SPECT/CT: Projection Versus Global Correction

Purpose: To compare projection-based versus global correction that compensate for deadtime count loss in SPECT/CT images. Methods: SPECT/CT images of an IEC phantom (2.3GBq 99mTc) with ∼10% deadtime loss containing the 37mm (uptake 3), 28 and 22mm (uptake 6) spheres were acquired using a 2 detector SPECT/CT system with 64 projections/detector and 15 s/projection. The deadtime, Ti and the true count rate, Ni at each projection, i was calculated using the monitor-source method. Deadtime corrected SPECT were reconstructed twice: (1) with projections that were individually-corrected for deadtime-losses; and (2) with original projections with losses and then correcting the reconstructed SPECT images using a scaling factor equal to the inverse of the average fractional loss for 5 projections/detector. For both cases, the SPECT images were reconstructed using OSEM with attenuation and scatter corrections. The two SPECT datasets were assessed by comparing line profiles in xyplane and z-axis, evaluating the count recoveries, and comparing ROI statistics. Higher deadtime losses (up to 50%) were also simulated to the individually corrected projections by multiplying each projection i by exp(-a*Ni*Ti), where a is a scalar. Additionally, deadtime corrections in phantoms with different geometries and deadtime losses were also explored. The same two correction methods were carried for all these data sets. Results: Averaging the deadtime losses in 5 projections/detector suffices to recover >99% of the loss counts in most clinical cases. The line profiles (xyplane and z-axis) and the statistics in the ROIs drawn in the SPECT images corrected using both methods showed agreement within the statistical noise. The count-loss recoveries in the two methods also agree within >99%. Conclusion: The projection-based and the global correction yield visually indistinguishable SPECT images. The global correction based on sparse sampling of projections losses allows for accurate SPECT deadtime loss correction while keeping the study duration reasonable.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Projections onto the Pareto surface in multicriteria radiation therapy optimization

Purpose: To eliminate or reduce the error to Pareto optimality that arises in Pareto surface navigation when the Pareto surface is approximated by a small number of plans. Methods: The authors propose to project the navigated plan onto the Pareto surface as a postprocessing step to the navigation. The projection attempts to find a Pareto optimal plan that is at least as good as or better than the initial navigated plan with respect to all objective functions. An augmented form of projection is also suggested where dose–volume histogram constraints are used to prevent that the projection causes a violation of some clinical goal. The projections were evaluated with respect to planning for intensity modulated radiation therapy delivered by step-and-shoot and sliding window and spot-scanned intensity modulated proton therapy. Retrospective plans were generated for a prostate and a head and neck case. Results: The projections led to improved dose conformity and better sparing of organs at risk (OARs) for all three delivery techniques and both patient cases. The mean dose to OARs decreased by 3.1 Gy on average for the unconstrained form of the projection and by 2.0 Gy on average when dose–volume histogram constraints were used. No consistent improvements in target homogeneity were observed. Conclusions: There are situations when Pareto navigation leaves room for improvement in OAR sparing and dose conformity, for example, if the approximation of the Pareto surface is coarse or the problem formulation has too permissive constraints. A projection onto the Pareto surface can identify an inaccurate Pareto surface representation and, if necessary, improve the quality of the navigated plan.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

An interprojection sensor fusion approach to estimate blocked projection signal in synchronized moving grid-based CBCT system

Purpose: A preobject grid can reduce and correct scatter in cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). However, half of the signal in each projection is blocked by the grid. A synchronized moving grid (SMOG) has been proposed to acquire two complimentary projections at each gantry position and merge them into one complete projection. That approach, however, suffers from increased scanning time and the technical difficulty of accurately merging the two projections per gantry angle. Herein, the authors present a new SMOG approach which acquires a single projection per gantry angle, with complimentary grid patterns for any two adjacent projections, and use an interprojection sensor fusion (IPSF) technique to estimate the blocked signal in each projection. The method may have the additional benefit of reduced imaging dose due to the grid blocking half of the incident radiation. Methods: The IPSF considers multiple paired observations from two adjacent gantry angles as approximations of the blocked signal and uses a weighted least square regression of these observations to finally determine the blocked signal. The method was first tested with a simulated SMOG on a head phantom. The signal to noise ratio (SNR), which represents the difference of the recovered CBCT image to the original image without the SMOG, was used to evaluate the ability of the IPSF in recovering the missing signal. The IPSF approach was then tested using a Catphan phantom on a prototype SMOG assembly installed in a bench top CBCT system. Results: In the simulated SMOG experiment, the SNRs were increased from 15.1 and 12.7 dB to 35.6 and 28.9 dB comparing with a conventional interpolation method (inpainting method) for a projection and the reconstructed 3D image, respectively, suggesting that IPSF successfully recovered most of blocked signal. In the prototype SMOG experiment, the authors have successfully reconstructed a CBCT image using the IPSF-SMOG approach. The detailed geometric features in the Catphan phantom were mostly recovered according to visual evaluation. The scatter related artifacts, such as cupping artifacts, were almost completely removed. Conclusions: The IPSF-SMOG is promising in reducing scatter artifacts and improving image quality while reducing radiation dose.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-198: A Cross-Platform Adaptation of An a Priori Scatter Correction Algorithm for Cone-Beam Projections to Enable Image- and Dose-Guided Proton Therapy

Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) imaging may enable image- and dose-guided proton therapy, but is challenged by image artefacts. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the general applicability of a previously developed a priori scatter correction algorithm to allow CBCT-based proton dose calculations. Methods: The a priori scatter correction algorithm used a plan CT (pCT) and raw cone-beam projections acquired with the Varian On-Board Imager. The projections were initially corrected for bow-tie filtering and beam hardening and subsequently reconstructed using the Feldkamp-Davis-Kress algorithm (rawCBCT). The rawCBCTs were intensity normalised before a rigid and deformable registration were applied on the pCTs to the rawCBCTs. The resulting images were forward projected onto the same angles as the raw CB projections. The two projections were subtracted from each other, Gaussian and median filtered, and then subtracted from the raw projections and finally reconstructed to the scatter-corrected CBCTs. For evaluation, water equivalent path length (WEPL) maps (from anterior to posterior) were calculated on different reconstructions of three data sets (CB projections and pCT) of three parts of an Alderson phantom. Finally, single beam spot scanning proton plans (0–360 deg gantry angle in steps of 5 deg; using PyTRiP) treating a 5 cm central spherical target in the pCT were re-calculated on scatter-corrected CBCTs with identical targets. Results: The scatter-corrected CBCTs resulted in sub-mm mean WEPL differences relative to the rigid registration of the pCT for all three data sets. These differences were considerably smaller than what was achieved with the regular Varian CBCT reconstruction algorithm (1–9 mm mean WEPL differences). Target coverage in the re-calculated plans was generally improved using the scatter-corrected CBCTs compared to the Varian CBCT reconstruction. Conclusion: We have demonstrated the general applicability of a priori CBCT scatter correction, potentially opening for CBCT-based image/dose-guided proton therapy, including adaptive strategies. Research agreement with Varian Medical Systems, not connected to the present project.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-BRA-10: Marker Free Lung Tumor Motion Tracking by An Active Contour Model On Cone Beam CT Projections for Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy of Lung Cancer

Purpose: To develop a novel strategy to extract the lung tumor motion from cone beam CT (CBCT) projections by an active contour model with interpolated respiration learned from diaphragm motion. Methods: Tumor tracking on CBCT projections was accomplished with the templates derived from planning CT (pCT). There are three major steps in the proposed algorithm: 1) The pCT was modified to form two CT sets: a tumor removed pCT and a tumor only pCT, the respective digitally reconstructed radiographs DRRtr and DRRto following the same geometry of the CBCT projections were generated correspondingly. 2) The DRRtr was rigidly registered with the CBCT projections on the frame-by-frame basis. Difference images between CBCT projections and the registered DRRtr were generated where the tumor visibility was appreciably enhanced. 3) An active contour method was applied to track the tumor motion on the tumor enhanced projections with DRRto as templates to initialize the tumor tracking while the respiratory motion was compensated for by interpolating the diaphragm motion estimated by our novel constrained linear regression approach. CBCT and pCT from five patients undergoing stereotactic body radiotherapy were included in addition to scans from a Quasar phantom programmed with known motion. Manual tumor tracking was performed on CBCT projections and was compared to the automatic tracking to evaluate the algorithm accuracy. Results: The phantom study showed that the error between the automatic tracking and the ground truth was within 0.2mm. For the patients the discrepancy between the calculation and the manual tracking was between 1.4 and 2.2 mm depending on the location and shape of the lung tumor. Similar patterns were observed in the frequency domain. Conclusion: The new algorithm demonstrated the feasibility to track the lung tumor from noisy CBCT projections, providing a potential solution to better motion management for lung radiation therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop reported herein aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A General Method for Estimating Bulk 2D Projections of Ice Particle Shape: Theory and Applications

The orientation of falling ice particles directly influences estimates of microphysical and radiative bulk quantities as well as in situ retrievals of size, shape, and mass. However, retrieval efforts and bulk calculations often incorporate very basic orientations or ignore these effects altogether. To address this deficiency, this study develops a general method for projecting bulk distributions of particle shape for arbitrary orientations. The Amoroso distribution provides the most general bulk aspect ratio distribution for gamma-distributed particle axis lengths. The parameters that govern the behavior of this aspect ratio distribution depend on the assumed relationship between mass, maximum dimension, and aspect ratio. Individual spheroidal geometry allows for eccentricity quantities to linearly map onto ellipse analogs, whereas aspect ratio quantities map nonlinearly. For particles viewed from their side, this analytic distinction leads to substantially larger errors in projected aspect ratio than for projected eccentricity. Distribution transformations using these mapping equations and numerical integration of projection kernels show that both truncation of size distributions and changes in Gaussian dispersion can alter the modality and shape of projection distributions. As a result, the projection process can more than triple the relative entropy between the spheroidal and projection distributions for commonly assumed model and orientation parameters. This shape uncertainty is maximized for distributions of highly eccentric particles and for particles like aggregates that are thought to fall with large canting-angle deviations. As a result, the methods used to report projected aspect ratios and the corresponding values should be questioned.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗