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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28

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NASA NTRS1992

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for structural reliability assessment of space flight systems

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for predicting the failure life distribution due to subcritical crack growth is presented. A state-of-the-art crack propagation method is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. The crack growth failure model expresses failure life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A stochastic crack growth rate model that considers the uncertainties due to scatter in the data and mode misspecification is proposed. The rationale for choosing a particular type of probability distribution for each stochastic input parameter and for specifying the distribution parameters is presented. The approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic crack growth failure analysis of a welded tube in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A discussion of the results from this application of the methodology is given.

Sutharshana, S.↗

NASA NTRS1969

Design and sparing techniques to meet specified performance life

Specified performance life technique starts with the general description of what is wanted, defines in block diagram the operational needs, and then defines the functional systems required. The technique is similar to a truncated reliability model, but the calculation is simplified by use of a Poisson distribution approach to failure probability.

Holstead, A. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Pseudorandom noise for telemetry error rate measurement applications and limitations.

A pseudorandom noise (PRN) generator functional design has been developed which is superior to the commercially available instrument in usable bandwidth and in the closeness of fit to the gaussian probability distribution in the 'tails' of the curve. The principal disadvantage of PRN sources for bit error rate (BER) measurements is that the probability distribution is truncated in the tails. This truncation of the probability distribution results in a similar truncation of the BER curve - i.e., there is a minimum BER which can be measured, below which the only possible result is zero. The minimum nonzero BER actually computed with the PRN source developed was 0.00001 with a pseudorandom sequence of 131,071 bits. It is theoretically possible, with a longer sequence, to achieve a minimum BER of 0.000001 with the same design.

Hopkins, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

A hill-sliding strategy for initialization of Gaussian clusters in the multidimensional space

A hill sliding technique was devised to extract Gaussian clusters from the multivariate probability density estimate of sample data for the first step of iterative unsupervised classification. Each cluster was assumed to posses a unimodal normal distribution. A clustering function proposed distinguished elements of a cluster under formation from the rest in the feature space. Initial clusters were extracted one by one according to the hill sliding tactics. A dimensionless cluster compactness parameter was proposed as a universal measure of cluster goodness and used satisfactorily in test runs with LANDSAT multispectral scanner data. The normalized divergence, defined by the cluster divergence divided by the entropy of the entire sample data, was utilized as a general separability measure between clusters. An overall clustering objective function was set forth in terms of cluster covariance matrices, from which the cluster compactness measure could be deduced. Minimal improvement of initial data partitioning was evaluated by this objective function in eliminating scattered sparse data points. The hill sliding clustering technique developed herein has the potential applicability to decomposition any multivariate mixture distribution into a number of unimodal distributions when an appropriate distribution function to the data set is employed.

Park, J. K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

Bowerman, Paul N.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coverage, repulsion, and reactivity of hydrogen on High-Entropy alloys

Modeling hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) activity probability on IrPdPtRhRu(1 1 1) high-entropy alloys. Determining hydrogen coverages based on ligand effects and generalized hydrogen–hydrogen repulsion. The rate of H 2 formation is highly impacted by the level of hydrogen coverage on the catalyst surface. In search of optimal catalytic properties high-entropy alloys (HEA) are promising candidates that utilize the compositional space of multiple elements. Based on simulations of HEA model (1 1 1) surfaces with a range of hydrogen coverages, distributions of binding energies are used to construct a framework that approximates the probability that adsorbed hydrogen may lead to the formation of H 2 as a function of applied potential. By optimizing the alloy compositions for the highest activity probability at given potentials the best and most efficient catalyst candidates for HER can be identified. Treating hydrogen–hydrogen repulsion effects and binding energy separately, we find that the repulsion is larger for HEAs than for pure metals. Differing isotherm slopes in the mean adsorption and desorption energies demonstrate a possible hysteresis for hydrogen adsorption on HEAs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1974

A dual frequency radar for ocean roughness sampling

A microwave technique for determining the roughness (rms wave height) of a randomly varying air-water interface has been developed theoretically, verified with laboratory wavetank studies and is currently being implemented for ocean surface measurements in a series of applications flight experiments. These aircraft observations will be near the Chesapeake Light Tower and will include a range of altitudes and sea conditions. The measurement concept involves cross-correlating the envelope fluctuations on two received carriers that are monochromatic when transmitted in a normal direction to the interface and are observed in a backscatter direction after reflection by the large number of randomly distributed specular points on the surface. The measured correlation coefficient (normalized covariance) as a function of carrier frequency separation will depend on the surface roughness, specifically the probability density function of the specular point height. Details of the flight system are discussed, and preliminary flight results are presented.

Weissman, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1977

On the constancy of the lunar cratering flux over the past 3.3 billion yr

Utilizing a method that minimizes random fluctuations in sampling crater populations, it can be shown that the ejecta deposit of Tycho, the floor of Copernicus, and the region surrounding the Apollo 12 landing site have incremental crater size-frequency distributions that can be expressed as log-log linear functions over the diameter range from 0.1 to 1 km. Slopes are indistinguishable for the three populations, probably indicating that the surfaces are dominated by primary craters. Treating the crater populations of Tycho, the floor of Copernicus, and Apollo 12 as primary crater populations contaminated, but not overwhelmed, with secondaries, allows an attempt at calibration of the post-heavy bombardment cratering flux. Using the age of Tycho as 109 m.y., Copernicus as 800 m.y., and Apollo 12 as 3.26 billion yr, there is no basis for assuming that the flux has changed over the past 3.3 billion yr. This result can be used for dating intermediate aged surfaces by crater density.

Guinness, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Autonomous power expert system advanced development

The autonomous power expert (APEX) system is being developed at Lewis Research Center to function as a fault diagnosis advisor for a space power distribution test bed. APEX is a rule-based system capable of detecting faults and isolating the probable causes. APEX also has a justification facility to provide natural language explanations about conclusions reached during fault isolation. To help maintain the health of the power distribution system, additional capabilities were added to APEX. These capabilities allow detection and isolation of incipient faults and enable the expert system to recommend actions/procedure to correct the suspected fault conditions. New capabilities for incipient fault detection consist of storage and analysis of historical data and new user interface displays. After the cause of a fault is determined, appropriate recommended actions are selected by rule-based inferencing which provides corrective/extended test procedures. Color graphics displays and improved mouse-selectable menus were also added to provide a friendlier user interface. A discussion of APEX in general and a more detailed description of the incipient detection, recommended actions, and user interface developments during the last year are presented.

Quinn, Todd M.↗

NASA NTRS1972

The prediction of millimeter wavelength precipitation attenuation using a cylindrical storm cell model

The single terminal and two terminal diversity precipitation attenuation distributions are calculated for a millimeter wavelength earth-satellite propagation path. The calculated probability distributions are compared to attenuation probability distributions measured at two locations with the ATS-5 millimeter wavelength experimental 15.63 GHz downlink. Using an empirically derived three mode exponential cell diameter-rain rate function, the calculated distributions agreed within -2 to +1 db of the measured distributions for both terminal locations. The sensitivity of the calculated distribution to variations of the cell model parameters was also investigated.

Zintsmaster, L. R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ordinary chondrites - Multivariate statistical analysis of trace element contents

The contents of mobile trace elements (Co, Au, Sb, Ga, Se, Rb, Cs, Te, Bi, Ag, In, Tl, Zn, and Cd) in Antarctic and non-Antarctic populations of H4-6 and L4-6 chondrites, were compared using standard multivariate discriminant functions borrowed from linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression. A nonstandard randomization-simulation method was developed, making it possible to carry out probability assignments on a distribution-free basis. Compositional differences were found both between the Antarctic and non-Antarctic H4-6 chondrite populations and between two L4-6 chondrite populations. It is shown that, for various types of meteorites (in particular, for the H4-6 chondrites), the Antarctic/non-Antarctic compositional difference is due to preterrestrial differences in the genesis of their parent materials.

Lipschutz, Michael E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Ar Atmosphere: Implications for Structure and Composition of Mercury's Crust

We examine the possibilities of sustaining an argon atmosphere by diffusion from the upper 10 km of crust, and alternatively by effusion from a molten or previously molten area at great depth . Ar-40 in the atmospheres of the planets is a measure of potassium abundance in the interiors since Ar-40 is a product of radiogenic decay of K-40 by electron capture with the subsequent emission of a 1.46 eV gamma-ray. Although the Ar-40 in the earth's atmosphere is expected to have accumulated since the late bombardment, Ar-40 in surface-bounded exospheres is eroded quickly by photoionization and electron impact ionization. Thus, the argon content in the exospheres of the Moon, Mercury and probably Europa is representative of current effusion rather than accumulation over the lifetime of the body. Argon content will be a function of K content, temperature, grain size distribution, connected pore volume and possible seismic activity. Although Mercury and the Moon differ in many details, we can train the solutions to diffusion equations to predict the average lunar atmosphere. Then these parameters can be varied for Hermean conditions. Assuming a lunar crustal potassium abundance of 300 ppm, the observed argon atmosphere requires equilibrium between the argon production in the upper 9 Km of the moon (1.135 x 10(exp -3) cm(exp -3) s(exp -1)) and its loss. Hodges et al. conclude that this loss rate and the observed time variability requires argon release through seismic activity, tapping a deep argon source. An important observation is that the extreme surface of the Moon is enhanced in argon rather than depleted, as one would expect from outgassing of radiogenic argon. Manka and Michel concluded that ion implantation explains the surface enhancement of Ar-40. About half of the argon ions produced in the lunar atmosphere would return to the surface, where they would become embedded in the rocks. Similarly, at Mercury we expect the surface rocks to be enhanced in Ar-40 wherever the magnetosphere has been open over time. Thus the measurement of surface composition will reveal the long-term effects of solar wind-magnetosphere interaction. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Killen, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Systems: Potential Failure Modes and Failure Mitigation Strategies

Electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) systems hold great potential for the reduction of aircraft fuel burn, emissions, and noise. Currently, NASA and other organizations are actively working to identify and mature technologies necessary to bring EAP designs to reality. A requirement for the development of any civil aircraft and its systems is to ensure that potential hazards in the design are identified and appropriately mitigated to ensure that the system is safe. During aircraft development, a system safety assessment that consists of a functional hazard assessment is conducted to identify all potential failure conditions of each function, and classify those failures according to the severity of their effects on the aircraft or its occupants. The more severe a function's failure condition classification, the greater the development assurance level required for the function to ensure that the probability of the hazard is acceptably low. Today, aircraft engines and their control systems receive type certificate approval as a stand-alone system to signify their airworthiness. However, the complex coupling and distributed nature of EAP designs are expected to place added challenges on the certification of these systems. This presentation will provide an initial high-level review of the potential failure modes and hazards posed by a generic EAP system along with potential mitigation strategies for those failures. The EAP system is assumed to be a hybrid design consisting of gas turbine engines, mechanical drives, electric machines, power electronics and distribution systems, energy storage devices, and motor driven propulsors. The functionality provided by each of these EAP subsystems will be discussed along with the potential failure modes they may encounter. This will include a discussion of coupled failure effects, where a fault in one EAP subsystem effects the operation of other subsystems in the architecture. Next, potential failure mitigation strategies are discussed including both software-based and hardware-based mitigation strategies. The presentation will conclude with an example evaluation of the potential failure modes and mitigation strategies for a concept EAP system proposed by NASA.

Simon, Donald L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

New Measurements of the Deuteron-to-Proton 𝐹 2 Structure-Function Ratio

Nucleon structure functions, as measured in lepton-nucleon scattering, have historically provided a critical observable in the study of partonic dynamics within the nucleon. However, at very large parton momenta, it is both experimentally and theoretically challenging to extract parton distributions due to the probable onset of nonperturbative contributions and the unavailability of high-precision data at critical kinematics. Extraction of the neutron structure and the d quark distribution have been further challenging because of the necessity of applying nuclear corrections when utilizing scattering data from a deuteron target to extract the free neutron structure. However, a program of experiments has been carried out recently at the energy-upgraded Jefferson Lab electron accelerator aimed at significantly reducing the nuclear correction uncertainties on the d quark distribution function at large partonic momentum. This allows leveraging the vast body of deuterium data covering a large kinematic range to be utilized for d quark parton distribution function extraction. In this Letter, we present new data from experiment E12-10-002, carried out in Jefferson Lab Experimental Hall C, on the deuteron to proton cross section ratio at large Bjorken 𝑥. These results significantly improve the precision of existing data and provide a first look at the expected impact on quark distributions extracted from parton distribution function fits.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Social impact evaluation : Some implications of the specific decisional context approach for anticipatory project assessment with special reference to available alternatives and to techniques of evaluating the social impacts of the anticipated effects of such alternatives

The implications are explored of the specific decision context approach to anticipatory project assessment. More specifically, it is hypothesized that with respect to any given effect of a proposed project or action (mobility, job opportunities, air pollution, population distribution, etc.) such effect will likely differ in probability and/or magnitude from one decisional context to another; that the social desirability or undesirability of a given effect is a function (will differ with) each specific decisional context; that therefore the social impact of such effect will in all likelihood differ with each specific decisional context; and that the social significance of even the dame social impact of a given effect will vary from one decisional context to another when such social impact interacts with (competes with or reinforces) the social impacts of other effects. It also follows from this analysis that the respective roles of scientific method (demonstrable data) and adversarial system will not only differ with each specific decisional context but with each alternative course of action available to the decisional entity in each specific context.

Mayo, L. H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Tong, Michael T.↗