Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Processing reliability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Gold Nanorod Spectral Morphology Analysis Pipeline

The development of a colloidal synthesis procedure to produce nanomaterials with high shape and size purity is often a time-consuming, iterative process. This is often due to quantitative uncertainties in the required reaction conditions and the time, resources, and expertise intensive characterization methods required for quantitative determination of nanomaterial size and shape. Absorption spectroscopy is often the easiest method for colloidal nanomaterial characterization. However, due to the lack of a reliable method to extract nanoparticle shapes from absorption spectroscopy, it is generally treated as a more qualitative measure for metal nanoparticles. This work demonstrates a gold nanorod (AuNR) spectral morphology analysis tool, called AuNR-SMA, which is a fast and accurate method to extract quantitative structural information from colloidal AuNR absorption spectra. To demonstrate the practical utility of this model, we apply it to three distinct applications. First, we demonstrate this model's utility as an automated analysis tool in a high-throughput AuNR synthesis procedure by generating quantitative size information from optical spectra. Second, we use the predictions generated by this model to train a machine learning model to predict the resulting AuNR size distributions under specified reaction conditions. Third, we apply this model to spectra extracted from the literature where no size distributions are reported and impute unreported quantitative information on AuNR synthesis. This approach can potentially be extended to any other nanocrystal system where absorption spectra are size dependent, and accurate numerical simulation of absorption spectra is possible. In addition, this pipeline could be integrated into automated synthesis apparatuses to provide interpretable data from simple measurements, help explore the synthesis science of nanoparticles in a rational manner, or facilitate closed-loop workflows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Human-Centered and Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations

Nuclear power plants in the United States are critical to the nation’s energy security, accounting for 20% of all electricity produced for the power grid. As energy needs grow, 100 gigawatts of additional nuclear power will be necessary by 2050, more than double the current capacity. Realizing this target requires cutting-edge technology like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) that can bring about significant increases in the level of automation. Human-centered AI (HCAI) is a combination of human-centered design (human factors, human-in-the-loop, etc.) with AI/ML to help produce an efficient and reliable system with full consideration for human engagement. This paper provides a comprehensive and novel discussion of HCAI considerations in nuclear power, introducing unique applications for the existing fleet as well as new advanced reactor designs. We include real-life use cases of AI applications to work management processes at nuclear power sites and highlight lessons learned for HCAI.

Hall, Anna↗

Reconstruction of the 4D beam matrix

The widely used transverse parameters characterizing particle beams are the Twiss parameters. These parameters can be measured experimentally but they do not fully characterize the beam since they do not account for possible correlations in particle distribution between two transverse coordinates. These correlations may occur due to uncompensated magnetic field at the cathode or misalignment of focusing quadrupoles in the transport beamline. We test a novel diagnostic for diagnosing full 4D beam matrix which may be used to identify such imperfections. The diagnostic is based on transporting the beam through the beamline which includes a quadrupole and a skew quadrupole magnets and measuring the resulting 2D beam distribution at the screen downstream. Such a measurement can be viewed as measuring a 2D projection of the 4D distribution. Different settings of the quads provide measurements of different slices of the phase space. The reconstruction of the original beam matrix from a number of measurements is done using machine learning algorithm, which provides a fast and reliable way of reconstruction for an arbitrary configuration of the scanning beamline. In August 2024, we set up the diagnostic beamline to perform a quadrupole scan of the beam. The setup includes a skew quadrupole, a regular quadrupole, and a screen. The images on the screen were post-processed to remove experimental artifacts and enhance contrast by eliminating background noise outside the core of the distribution=. The rms parameters of the distribution were then calculated and used as inputs for the reconstruction algorithm. This algorithm attempts to determine the initial beam matrix that produces expected images on the screen closely matching the observed images across all quadrupole settings. The algorithm found a solution in which the expected rms parameters closely align with the observations. Validation of the results is planned for FY25.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Towards a study protocol: A data-driven workflow to identify error sources in direct ink write mechatronics

Abstract Using Direct Ink Write (DIW) technology in a rapid and large-scale production requires reliable quality control for printed parts. Data streams generated during printing, such as print mechatronics, are massive and diverse which impedes extracting insights. In our study protocol approach, we developed a data-driven workflow to understand the behavior of sensor-measured X- and Y- axes positional errors with process parameters, such as print velocity and velocity control. We uncovered patterns showing that instantaneous changes in the velocity, when the build platform accelerates and decelerates, largely influence the positional errors, especially in the X- axis due to the hardware architecture. Since DIW systems share similar mechatronic inputs and outputs, our study protocol approach is broadly applicable and scalable across multiple systems. Graphical abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Membrane Electrode Assembly Manufacturing Automation Technology for the Electrochemical Compression of Hydrogen: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

Electrochemical compression has the possibility to outcompete mechanical compression for hydrogen end- use applications. While HyET has a compressor that can output JO kilograms (kg)/day (fully scalable from home-to-industrial application) at up to 700 bar, the energy demand and reliability require top-quality electrochemical hydrogen compression (EHC) membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs), preferably prepared by cost-effective high-capacity manufacturing. High pressure requires a special MEA design, deviating from typical proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) MEAs with adapted catalyst layer substrates, asking for a modified coating process. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) will help HyET by developing an automated catalyst coating process fit for EHC MEA manufacturing. In addition, inline quality inspection methods will be developed/selected to improve the MBA quality as it is used for EHC stack assembly. In a joint effort, NREL and HyET will even design an automated manufacturing process for the EHC MEA and approach potential United States (US) suppliers of manufacturing equipment.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

An Ethics-Based Review of Generative Artificial Intelligence: Assuring Responsible Use (Version 1.0)

The rapid expansion of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has generated excitement regarding its potential benefits and concern over its ethical implications. Governments, corporations, and standards organizations have described ethical principles to direct GenAI's development and use; however, practical guidance for implementing these principles is limited. Addressing this gap is critical, especially considering the array of risks associated with GenAI, such as legal liabilities, privacy concerns, security threats, and potential misuse. Robust policies and procedures are critical to support responsible deployment of GenAI. This report examines Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)’s approach to promoting responsible GenAI use. Proposed initiatives include developing policies based on ethical principles, creating a governance process to review projects relative to those principles, and implementing onboarding processes for training staff. The governance framework described in this report adapts the structure and principles of Institutional Review Boards (IRBs), traditionally used in human subjects research, for GenAI ethical review, providing oversight. Ethical principles guiding responsible GenAI usage include transparency and accountability, privacy, fairness, safety, security, and validity and reliability. To operationalize these principles, we propose forming a GenAI Assurance Council (GAC) that mirrors the IRB's structure. The GAC will evaluate GenAI projects across privacy, accountability, transparency, safety, security, fairness, and validity dimensions. Complementing policy and governance is AI literacy training to support staff understanding of GenAI's ethical implications. An initial training effort for AI Incubator Chat—a GenAI tool deployed at PNNL—showed promising results, underscoring the importance of clear guidelines and user accountability. Collaborative efforts and the dissemination of best practices are also discussed. The proposed GAC model and AI literacy training provide a blueprint for establishing ethical GenAI use and governance, offering practical tools to bridge the gap between ethical principles and real-world applications. The responsible integration of GenAI at PNNL entails a multifaceted approach involving policy development, ethical governance, and AI literacy training. The positive initial feedback and collaborative opportunities position PNNL to lead by example in GenAI's responsible use, reflecting a proactive stance in addressing the ethical, legal, and societal challenges associated with this emerging technology. PNNL's systematic and ethical approach to GenAI offers a model for other institutions to emulate, promoting safe and responsible technological advancements in the AI domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Navigating Integration: Key Challenges for Data Centers, Nuclear Stakeholders, and Utility Operators

The rapid expansion of data centers, driven by the exponential growth in data-processing and storage needs, presents significant challenges and opportunities for various stakeholders, including data center developers, nuclear energy providers, and utility companies. Data centers are projected to consume 6.7–12% of United States (U.S.) electricity by 2028, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud-computing demands. Nuclear energy offers reliability and dispatchable baseload power, but data centers need power now while nuclear still needs time to address siting, fast power ramping, and regulatory hurdles. Utilities must keep pace with the unprecedented acceleration of large load interconnection requests and urgently adapt to high-density loads while maintaining grid stability, reliability, and accelerating interconnection timelines. This report dives into these challenges and proposes key collaboration strategies to streamline data center integration that aligns with recent federal initiatives like America’s AI Action Plan and related executive orders that emphasize the importance of data center growth, nuclear energy expansion, and maintaining a competitive edge in the global AI race.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Commercial and Industrial Energy Procurement in Nigeria: A Consumer's Guidebook

Across Africa, countries have incorporated a variety of new energy sources into their energy mix to account for increasing demand. In Nigeria, electricity consumption per capita has grown nearly 50% in the past 20 years. To address rising demand for energy in Nigeria, the country has passed several recent policies and regulations aimed at increasing energy generation across the country, improving the country's transmission infrastructure, and ensuring that electricity reliably reaches end users, including commercial and industrial (C&I) customers. This guidebook is designed for C&I customers in Nigeria to use in the consideration of procuring such onsite, captive energy systems to supplement their energy needs. Each section of this guidebook touches on a step of the procurement process and details the relevant stakeholders, processes, and data needed to make decisions during that step.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Efficient screening of rare large pit anomalies on polished surfaces using a minimalist sampling scheme

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has made significant strides in generating clean energy through its inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. These experiments rely on high-density carbon (HDC) coated shells to encapsulate the fusion fuel. The success of these experiments is heavily dependent on the surface quality of these shells, as even minor imperfections, such as deep pits, can negatively impact fusion yield. Ensuring the required smoothness involves an extensive surface-finishing process that spans approximately 20 stages, making it both time-intensive and resource-demanding. A critical challenge in this process is the need for high-resolution scans to detect rare deep pits, which can be costly and impractical if performed on every shell. This highlights the necessity of developing more efficient scanning methods to optimize time and cost without compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach that employs the multivariate Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality to provide a probabilistic upper bound on the error in estimating pit distribution characteristics via a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). This error bound enables efficient and reliable estimation of pit distribution characteristics at a specified statistical confidence level using a minimal number of surface scans. The integrated DKW-KDE approach was validated through surface-finishing experiments across two batches of HDC-coated shells, demonstrating consistent and robust performance across multiple stages of the surface-finishing experiments. The validation studies suggest that the integrated DKW-KDE approach achieves comparable accuracy in estimating the risk of deleterious large pits with six scans, thus conserving time and resources. Further evaluations show that performance remains consistent across batches and over multiple polishing stages. In conclusion, based on these findings, one can leverage the minimal-scan insights to strategically improve the bottleneck inspection process, thus enhancing the productivity and quality of shell polishing and similar challenging manufacturing processes.

Inertial confinement fusion↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Ensemble cure kinetics network (ECK-Net): A method to derive cure kinetics of thermosetting resin

This paper introduces an Ensemble Cure Kinetics Network (ECK-Net), a neural network (NN)–based framework for modeling the cure kinetics of thermosetting resins within a phenomenological context. ECK-Net replaces traditional analytic models, which require extensive chemical insight and multiple isothermal/non-isothermal experiments, with a data-driven surrogate that maps nonlinear relationships between temperature, degree of cure, and reaction rate from differential scanning calorimetry data. The proposed approach predicts input-dependent kinetic coefficients of a generalized nth-order reaction equation rather than reaction rates directly, enabling a single unified model to represent various epoxy systems without relying on iso-conversional analysis or predefined functional forms. To ensure robustness, multiple independently trained networks under different random initializations are blended through an ensemble strategy, effectively mitigating the stochastic variability inherent to neural networks. The framework is validated using experimental datasets from multiple resin systems, including aerospace-grade materials (Toray 3900-2, Cycom 5320-1, and Hexcel 8552) and a windmill-grade resin (RIMR 035c). The model accurately reproduces the temporal evolution of the degree of cure under manufacturers’ recommended cure cycles across all tested resins systems, yielding Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.992, 0.994, 0.993, 0.997, respectively. To demonstrate process-level applicability, the trained network was implemented within the Abaqus environment to simulate out-of-autoclave (OOA) curing process of the CFRP panel composed of Toray T830H-6K/3900-2D prepreg. The simulation results showed excellent agreement with experimental temperature response (maximum peak temperature, simulation: 189.6 °C, experiment: 188.5 °C) and the final degree of cure (simulation: 0.948, experiment: 0.960 ± 0.013), confirming ECK-Net’s capability as a reliable alternative to conventional cure kinetics modeling methods.

Composite curing↗

Comprehensive defect evaluation of advanced nuclear fuels using high-resolution acoustic signals and optimized sensor separation

Graphite pebble composite structures based on TRistructural-ISOtropic (TRISO) particles are being developed as core nuclear fuels in advanced power reactors, promising safe operation at increased temperatures. Ensuring the structural integrity of these nuclear fuels requires comprehensive and accurate non-destructive evaluation (NDE) techniques to characterize defects and damage in the pebbles. However, traditional acoustic evaluation methods face limitations in defect characterization due to the highly attenuative, and geometrically and compositionally complex nature of these structures. This study proposes an improved acoustic NDE technique for accurate detection and classification of anticipated relevant defects and damage in graphite pebbles using high-resolution acoustic signals and optimized transmit-receive sensor networks. The proposed approach utilizes a triangular three-sensor network as the base unit, comprising three transmit-receive sensors. The sensor separation distance, as well as acoustic excitation center frequency, pulse-width, and bandwidth are optimized to enhance spatial resolution and improve signal-to-noise ratio, enabling effective characterization of the smallest size and widest range of defects in pebbles. Furthermore, the use of the triangular sensor configuration instead of a more conventional transmit-receive sensor pair expands the inspection region from a one-dimensional linear path to a two-dimensional area, increasing spatial coverage. To mitigate challenges associated with processing of complex acoustic signals arising from high-frequency, high-bandwidth excitation in these structures, a machine-learning-based signal processing algorithm is integrated with the sensor network. In the machine-learning-based algorithm, multi-domain features are extracted from the acoustic signals to capture intricate signal characteristics, significantly improving defect identification and classification compared to traditional approaches. The proposed acoustic NDE technique offers considerable promise for practical and reliable defect/damage diagnostics of advanced nuclear pebble fuels.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Design and Evaluation of Zero Trust Architecture for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: EVs @ Scale Series on EV Charging Station Cybersecurity

Implementing a zero trust architecture can significantly bolster the security of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. EV charging infrastructure includes numerous networked interfaces, each of which can present potential vulnerabilities. When these vulnerabilities are exploited, they can compromise the entire system, leading to severe operational and security risks. Zero trust is a security model that operates on the principle of "never trust, always verify," which helps manage the attack surface and limit the scope of any potential compromises. Fundamentally, this model ensures that no entity, whether inside or outside the network, is trusted by default. The design principles of zero trust include continuous verification, strict deny-by-default access controls, and micro-segmentation. Continuous verification ensures that every request is thoroughly checked, regardless of its origin. Strict access controls enforce the principle of least privilege, allowing users and devices only the minimum necessary access to perform their functions. Micro-segmentation involves dividing the network into smaller, isolated segments to prevent lateral movement in case of a breach. In the context of EV charging infrastructure, zero trust can be implemented through various strategies. For example, multi-factor authentication (MFA) can be required for engineers to access the management interfaces and control systems of charging stations. Real-time monitoring and analysis of network traffic can help detect and respond to anomalies. Systems that do not need to communicate with each other can be micro-segmented to enhance security. All communications should adhere to predefined policies to be permitted. Additionally, encrypting communications can protect sensitive information exchanged between chargers and management systems. This paper presents a zero trust architecture specifically designed for EV charging infrastructure. Implementing zero trust not only mitigates risks but also builds a resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding and quickly recovering from cyber threats. The architecture addresses six defined security objectives. A comprehensive test plan is developed to assess the architecture against these objectives, and the results of the evaluation are reported. This approach is essential for maintaining the reliability and integrity of EV charging services in an increasingly interconnected and vulnerable digital landscape. This is the first in a planned series of papers exploring the implementation of zero trust in EV charging infrastructure. Each paper will delve into different aspects and applications of zero trust, highlighting how various work processes and requirements can lead to distinct architectural designs. These architectures will be tailored to address specific security challenges and operational needs within the EV charging ecosystem, ensuring a robust and adaptable security framework.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

High-Temperature Reference Electrode for Chloride Salts

The unique properties of molten salts enable their use in a wide range of applications, including metal electrodeposition, electrorefining, and as electrolytes in high-temperature batteries. Moreover, molten salts will be used as a coolant in molten salt reactors and as working media in pyrorocessing for nuclear energy applications. As a result, predicting the behavior and properties of the elements involved in the technological processes that employ molten salts is important. The activity of chloride ions in chloride molten salts has a large influence on the behavior of the salts in these applications and one of the key components in measuring the chloride activity is a stable reference electrode. This project aims to develop a reliable and convenient method for measuring chloride ion activity over a wide range of temperatures and salt compositions in chloride salt mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Global-Scale Convergence Obscures Inconsistencies in Soil Carbon Change Predicted by Earth System Models

Soil carbon (C) responses to environmental change represent a major source of uncertainty in the global C cycle. Feedbacks between soil C stocks and climate drivers could impact atmospheric CO 2 levels, further altering the climate. Here, we assessed the reliability of Earth system model (ESM) predictions of soil C change using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). ESMs predicted global soil C gains under the high emission scenario, with soils taking up 43.9 Pg (95% CI: 9.2–78.5 Pg) C on average during the 21st century. The variation in global soil C change declined significantly from CMIP5 (with average of 48.4 Pg [95% CI: 2.0–94.9 Pg] C) to CMIP6 models (with average of 39.3 Pg [95% CI: 23.9–54.7 Pg] C). For some models, a small C increase in all biomes contributed to this convergence. For other models, offsetting responses between cold and warm biomes contributed to convergence. Although soil C predictions appeared to converge in CMIP6, the dominant processes driving soil C change at global or biome scales differed among models and in many cases between earlier and later versions of the same model. Random Forest models, for soil carbon dynamics, accounted for more than 63% variation of the global soil C change predicted by CMIP5 ESMs, but only 36% for CMIP6 models. Although most CMIP6 models apparently agree on increased soil C storage during the 21st century, this consensus obscures substantial model disagreement on the mechanisms underlying soil C response, calling into question the reliability of model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of an immersion fiber optic Raman probe for real-time analysis of molten materials

This study presents an advancement in high-temperature Raman spectroscopy, specifically for analyzing molten materials. It introduces an approach by integrating a fiber-optic Raman probe with a copper block protection system designed to endure extreme thermal conditions. The copper block features an open port designed to accommodate an external telescope with a 3 cm focal length, enabling Raman spectra collection in challenging high-temperature environments. A built-in gas channel ensures a continuous flow of argon gas to prevent flux intrusion. The robust copper block acts as a reliable shield, safeguarding the fiber-optic Raman probe within molten materials. This enhancement maintains the probe's integrity and significantly improves its resilience, making it ideal for rigorous investigations of molten substances. This advancement is particularly relevant in metallurgy, where flux materials impact production quality and efficiency. The ability to acquire Raman signals under elevated thermal conditions offers opportunities for studying molecular dynamics, compositional changes, and chemical interactions within molten substances. This introduced direct immersion probing technique has implications, benefiting both scientific and industrial fields. It holds promise for advancing research and exploration in various contexts, from fundamental scientific inquiries to practical applications in metallurgical processes, where flux materials are critical for optimizing production quality and efficiency. Furthermore, this approach enhances the capabilities of high-temperature Raman spectroscopy, making it a valuable tool for investigating molten materials and their properties in diverse settings.

Argon↗