Evaluating the effectiveness of the experimental methods used in the psychological selection of aviation cadets
Effectiveness of psychological selection of aviation cadets - predictability and reliability
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Effectiveness of psychological selection of aviation cadets - predictability and reliability
Earth storable propellants exist in liquid phase in near-Earth temperatures at vapor pressure below 100 psi and hypergolic, yielding simple, reliable and predictable systems
Product reliabilities are predicted from past failure rates and reasonable estimate of future failure rates. Algorithm is used to calculate probability that product will function correctly. Algorithm sums the probabilities of each survival pattern and number of permutations for that pattern, over all possible ways in which product can survive.
The methods developed to predict the reliability of aircraft structures depend upon inspection effectiveness which, in turn, depends upon structural complexity, quality, and the percentage of the structure inspected. Reliability can be enhanced by choosing materials properly, designing damage-tolerant structures, and increasing inspection frequency. And, for fleet operations, costs can be minimized through proper inspection schedules, and enhanced reliability can be compatible with minimum cost. The methods are derived from a combination of probability theory and engineering equations. A discussion of these methods is presented.
The results of process characterization, circuit design, and reliability studies for the development of a quad OP amplifier intended for use up to 300 C are presented. A dielectrically isolated complementary vertical bipolar process was chosen to fabricate the amplifier in order to eliminate isolation leakage and the possibility of latch up. Characterization of NPN and PNP junctions showed them to be suitable for use up to 300 C. Interconnect reliability was predicted to be greater than four years mean time between failure. Parasitic MOS formation was eliminated by isolation of each device.
The preponderance of study effort was devoted toward the deployable platform systems study which culminated in the detailed design of a ground test article for future development testing. This design is representative of a prototype square-truss, single-fold building-block design that can construct deployable platform structures. This prototype design was selected through a comprehensive and traceable selection process applied to eight competitive designs. The selection process compared the competitive designs according to seven major selection criteria, i.e., design versatility, cost, thermal stability, meteoroid impact significance, reliability, performance predictability, and orbiter integration suitability. In support of the foregoing, a materials data base, and platform systems technology development needs were established. An erectable design of an OTV hangar was selected and recommended for further design development. This design was selected from five study-developed competitive single-fold and double-fold designs including hard-shell and inflatable designs. Also, two deployable manned module configurations, i.e., a hard-shell and an inflatable design were each developed to the same requirements as the composite of two Space station baseline habitat modules.
Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were applied in a study of Concord grapevines. Spectroradiometric measurements of 18 experimental vines were collected on three dates during one growing season. Spectral reflectance, determined at 30 intervals from 0.4 to 1.1 microns, was correlated with vine yield, pruning weight, clusters/vine, and nitrogen input. One date of airborne multispectral scanner data (11 channels) was collected over commercial vineyards, and the average radiance values for eight vineyard sections were correlated with the corresponding average yields. Although some correlations were significant, they were inadequate for developing a reliable yield prediction model.
For cryogenically-cooled infrared instruments and telescopes employed in space, reliable and predictable motor operations at 4 K in vacuum are in most cases necessary. For the Shuttle Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF), stepper motors may be employed in a number of applications. A test facility was designed and built for measuring stepper motor positional repeatability, in vacuum, over a temperature range from ambient to liquid helium temperature. Tests regarding positional repeatability were conducted at different motor speeds, directions of motor rotation, step sizes, and power conditions. In addition, tests were performed with respect to the ability of the motor to remain in a position with no power applied to the motor.
The exploitation of natural gas resources to supply energy demands has resulted in the need to engineer pipelines and plants capable of handling extremely high pressures and throughputs. Consequently, more attention has been directed to evaluating the consequences of releases of material whether accidental or deliberate in nature. An important aspect of assessing the consequences of a release is an understanding of how gas disperses in the atmosphere over a wide range of release and atmospheric conditions. The most cost effective way of providing such information is through the development and use of reliable theoretical prediction methods. The need for some form of remote sensing device was identified. The various possibilities studied led to the conclusion that LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) offered the most suitable method. The system designed and built is described, and its recent use in monitoring operational ventings from a high pressure transmission system is discussed.
The utility of pivotal functions is established for assessing software reliability. Based on the Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model of reliability growth, confidence limits for attained reliability and prediction limits for the time to the next failure are derived using a pivotal function approach. Asymptotic approximations to the confidence and prediction limits are considered and are shown to be inadequate in cases where only a few bugs are found in the software. Departures from the assumed exponentially distributed interfailure times in the model are also investigated. The effect of these departures is discussed relative to restricting the use of the Moranda model.
Methodology, analysis, and detailed design of integrated control system architectures suitable for high-performance aircraft of the 1990s are presented. A methodology, with supporting analytical tools, has been developed to provide system designers with the capability to specify candidate architectures and accurately predict their reliability and performance in the early stages of design development. The authors address the methodology and supporting tools.
The inherent brittleness of glass invariably leads to a large variability in strength data and a time dependence in strength. Leading rate plays a large role in strength values. Glass is found to be weaker when supporting loads over long periods of time as compared to glass which undergoes rapid leading. These properties complicate the structural design allowables for the utilization of glass components in an application such as Advanced X-ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF). The test methodology to obtain parameters which can be used to predict the reliability and life time of Zerodur glass-ceramic which is to be used for the mirrors in the AXAF is described.
The work described in this paper is supported under NASA contract NAS1-18099, Analysis and Detailed Design of an Integrated Airfame/Propulsion Control System Architecture (IAPSA II). This contract address methodology, analysis and detailed design of integrated control system architectures suitable for high performance aircraft of the 1990's. We have developed methodology, with supporting analytical tools, to provide system designers with the capability to specify candidate architectures and accurately predict their reliability and performance in the early stages of design development. This paper describes experience gained using the prevalidation methodology, including supporting tools.
Reports are presented at the meeting at the University of Arizona on the study of predictable and reliable solid rocket motors. The following subject areas were covered: present state and trends in the research of solid propellants; the University of Arizona program in solid propellants, particularly in mixing (experimental and analytical results are presented).
With the technology currently available for the manufacture of propellants, it is possible to control the variance of the total specific impulse obtained from the rocket boosters to within approximately five percent. Though at first inspection this may appear to be a reasonable amount of control, when it is considered that any uncertainty in the total kinetic energy delivered to the spacecraft translates into a design with less total usable payload, even this degree of uncertainty becomes unacceptable. There is strong motivation to control the variance in the specific impulse of the shuttle's solid boosters. Any small gains in the predictability and reliability of the booster would lead to a very substantial payoff in earth-to-orbit payload. The purpose of this study is to examine one aspect of the manufacture of solid propellants, namely, the mixing process. The traditional approach of computational fluid mechanics is notoriously complex and time consuming. Certain simplifications are made, yet certain fundamental aspects of the mixing process are investigated as a whole. It is possible to consider a mixing process in a mathematical sense as an operator, F, which maps a domain back upon itself. An operator which demonstrates good mixing should be able to spread any subset of the domain completely and evenly throughout the whole domain by successive applications of the mixing operator, F. Two and three dimensional models are developed and graphical visualization two and three dimensional mixing processes are presented.
The far-reaching effects of such extrinsic factors as specimen shape and load distribution on bridged crack propagation, in cases where bridging-zone length is comparable to any of the crack and/or specimen dimensions, are presently demonstrated in view of calculation results for single-edge-notch specimens under uniform remote tension. The inherent risk of nonconservative predictions or reliability and strength may be reduced by considering the relationship between the bridging tractions and the crack-opening displacement as a fundamental material property. The fundamentality of the 'bridging length scale', or initial crack extension over which the bridging zone matures, is demonstrated.
Characterization of the behavior of atomic oxygen interaction with materials on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) will assist in understanding the mechanisms involved, and will lead to improved reliability in predicting in-space durability of materials based on ground laboratory testing. A computational simulation of atomic oxygen interaction with protected polymers was developed using Monte Carlo techniques. Through the use of assumed mechanistic behavior of atomic oxygen and results of both ground laboratory and LDEF data, a predictive Monte Carlo model was developed which simulates the oxidation processes that occur on polymers with applied protective coatings that have defects. The use of high atomic oxygen fluence-directed ram LDEF results has enabled mechanistic implications to be made by adjusting Monte Carlo modeling assumptions to match observed results based on scanning electron microscopy. Modeling assumptions, implications, and predictions are presented, along with comparison of observed ground laboratory and LDEF results.
The Tank Pressure Control Experiment (TPCE) is discussed with attention given to the results for controlling storage-tank pressures by forced-convective mixing in microgravitational environments. The fluid dynamics of cryogenic fluids in space is simulated with freon-113 during axial-jet-induced mixing. The experimental flow-pattern data are found to confirm previous data as well as existing mixing correlations. Thermal nonuniformities and tank pressure can be reduced by employing low-energy mixing jets which are useful for enhancing heat/mass transfer between phases. It is found that space cryogenic systems based on the principle of active mixing can be more reliable and predictable than other methods, and continuous or periodic mixing can be accomplished with only minor energy addition to the fluid.