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Fire, dust, air and water: Improving aerosol biogeochemistry interactions in ACME. Final report

Aerosol-biogeochemistry interactions will have important consequences for human health, ecosystem services, and climate feedbacks over the next several decades. In this proposal we seek to link how human activities on land, including direct industrial emissions and landscape fires, impact the atmosphere and the biogeochemistry of the ocean and land. Our overall goal was to complement existing work at DOE labs to improve the capability and performance of the E3SM model in short-term, high-resolution projections of climate. Projections of ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon are highly dependent on the details of the ocean physical and biogeochemistry parameterizations. Potentially equally important are the estimates of increases in iron and soluble nitrogen deposition in aerosols to the open ocean, but there are substantial uncertainties in these feedbacks. The E3SM land model simulates natural and anthropogenic fires, but improvement is needed to more accurately simulate fire responses to climate variability as well as fire contributions to terrestrial climate feedbacks. This proposal addressed four of the six priorities within the ACME/E3SM call by improving the representation of fire, industrial combustion sources, and desert dust and adding iron and soluble iron to the atmospheric chemistry (1). Our work focused on improving ocean biogeochemistry and the response of the oceans to anthropogenic atmospheric iron and nitrogen (3). We also improved the representation of land disturbance on fires and fire mediated carbon cycle feedbacks in the land model (4). Finally we had planned to couple the land, atmosphere and ocean biogeochemical systems (6) and explore how this coupling changes the feedbacks in the climate system. Our work under this proposal was separated into the following 5 tasks: i) improve representation of fire dynamics in both boreal and tropical ecosystems, ii) improve estimates of industrial emissions of iron and phosphorus, iii) improve representation of atmospheric iron, phosphorus and nitrogen transport, chemistry and deposition, iv) improve representation of iron, phosphorus and nitrogen deposition impacts on ocean biogeochemistry, and v) couple emissions into atmosphere, to deposition onto land and ocean biogeochemistry. For all 5 tasks, we conducted offline experiments of the historical period to enable comparison with available aerosol and land surface observations. We had planned to conduct fully coupled simulations, however, these will be conducted as part of the coupling in version 3 and 4 of the E3SM model, and thus have not been completed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements of Quasar Proximity Zones with the Lyα Forest of DESI Y1 Quasars

Abstract The intergalactic medium (IGM) around a quasar is shaped by its dense environment and by its excess ionizing radiation, which form a “quasar proximity zone” whose size and anisotropy depend on the quasar’s halo mass, luminosity, age, and radiation geometry. Using over 10,000 quasar pairs from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 data, with projected comoving separations r ⊥ < 2 h −1 Mpc, we investigate how the proximity zone of foreground quasars at z ∼ 2–3.5 affects Lyα absorption in their background quasars. The large DESI sample enables unprecedented precision in measuring this “transverse proximity” effect, allowing a detailed investigation of the signal’s dependence on the projected separation of quasar pairs and the luminosity of the foreground quasar. We find that enhanced gas clustering near quasars dominates over their ionizing effect, leading to stronger absorption on neighboring sightlines. Under the assumption that quasar ionizing luminosity is isotropic and steady, we infer the IGM overdensity profile in the vicinity of quasars, finding overdensities as high as Δ ∼ 10 at comoving distance ∼1 h −1 Mpc from the most luminous systems. Surprisingly, however, we find no significant dependence of the proximity profile on the luminosity of the foreground quasar. This lack of luminosity dependence could reflect a cancellation between higher ionizing flux and higher gas overdensity, or it could indicate that quasar emission is highly time-variable or anisotropic, so that the observed luminosity does not trace the ionizing flux on nearby sightlines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: Assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change

Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. However, with significant variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, greater transparency and dedicated assessment of the underlying modeling and results and more detailed understanding of the potential role of bioenergy are needed. Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) initiated a 33rd study (EMF-33) to explore the viability of large-scale bioenergy as part of a comprehensive climate management strategy. This special issue presents the papers of the EMF-33 study—a multi-year inter-model comparison project designed to understand and assess global, long-run, biomass supply and bioenergy deployment potentials and related uncertainties. Using a novel scenario design with independent biomass supply and bioenergy demand protocols, EMF-33 separately elucidates and explores the modeling of biomass feedstock supplies and bioenergy technologies and their deployment—revealing, comparing, and assessing the modeling that is suggesting that bioenergy could be a key climate containment strategy. This introduction provides an overview of the EMF-33 study design and the overview, thematic, and individual modeling team papers and types of insights that make up this special issue. By providing enhanced transparency and new detailed insights, we hope to inform policy dialogue about the potential role of bioenergy and facilitate new research.

Rose, Steven K.↗

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Post-fire time series of sensor and geochemistry sample data from surface water, groundwater, precipitation, soil, and vegetation across Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Stream sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2 in 2024, affecting the five study sites at varying burn severities. Each site is equipped with YSI EXO2 sondes logging sub-hourly throughout the year, and grab samples are collected approximately every six weeks. YSI sondes are used to measure temporally resolved proxies for groundwater inputs (specific conductivity) and organic matter (fluorescent dissolved organic matter; fDOM) along with basic water quality and depth. Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, and precipitation are analyzed for water stable isotopes and conductivity to understand endmembers for hydrologic mixing Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, soil water, and litter/vegetation/soil leachates are analyzed for organic matter composition measured by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) to understand organic matter dynamics. Game camera photos are provided in a separate data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018598. Future versions of this dataset will include time series data from YSI EXO2 sondes (fDOM, dissolved oxygen, temperature, depth, specific conductance, turbidity, pH), BaroTROLL sensors (air temperature and barometric pressure), rain gauges (precipitation), and data from the soil and vegetation samples. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected data and the additional data types. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos; (2) a folder of surface water sample data; (3) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (4) a data checks report; (5) file-level metadata; (6) data dictionary; (7) field metadata; (8) readme; (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocols. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages; (3) stable water isotopes and averages; (4) methods codes; (5) FTICR-MS methods; and (15) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4.

Biogeochemistry↗

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗

Cloud and Precipitation Properties of MCSs Along the Meiyu Frontal Zone in Central and Southern China and Their Associated Large-Scale Environments

This study focuses on investigating the cloud and precipitation features of Meiyu mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their relation to the large-scale environments in central and southern China using satellite observations and reanalysis data during the period 2014–2018. MCSs from two different locations, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and Southern China (SC), are examined separately. The Meiyu MCSs have a mean precipitation rate of 3.6 mm/hr and contribute 20% to 60% of the total precipitation during the Meiyu period. The diurnal cycle of Meiyu MCSs shows a maximum precipitation amount in the morning, which is associated with the enhanced nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) overnight. Although the synoptic setups in YRB and SC are found to be similar when normalized around the MCS initiation locations, MCSs exhibit some differences in terms of the cloud top height, precipitation rate, and duration, which are likely by the differences in the local forcing. Large interannual variations are found in MCSs' number, cloud size, lifetime, and rainfall intensity, which is found to be associated with the interannual variabilities in the large-scale environments. By comparing the large-scale environments with climatological mean states, we find that the year with the most intense MCS activity during the study period is characterized by an intensified southwesterly LLJ, which increases the moisture transport from the Indian Ocean and an enhancement of the midtropospheric westerly jet, which induces adiabatic ascent along the Meiyu front, creating more favorable conditions for convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Optimization of a Rotating Packed Bed Contactor with a Tetraamine-Appended Metal−Organic Framework for CO 2 Capture

A potential contactor technology for sorbent-based CO 2 capture is the rotating packed bed that contains separate sections for continuous adsorption and desorption. A heat exchanger can be embedded to remove heat in the adsorption section and add heat in the desorption section. In this work, we develop a two-dimensional (2D) model of a rotating packed bed for use in CO 2 capture applications. Mass and energy balances for the model are developed based on a Ljungström-type air preheater, which accounts for the counter-current axial flow of gas phases in separate sections of the bed and the rotation of a solid sorbent, which cycles between adsorption and desorption sections. The sorbent used for this analysis is the tetraamine-appended metal−organic framework Mg 2 (dobpdc)(3−4− 3), chosen for its stability and affinity for CO 2 at low partial pressures, such as those from a natural gas power plant source. An optimization problem is solved that considers the trade-off between maximizing the productivity of the bed and minimizing energy consumption. Maximum productivity and minimum energy are found to be 8.53 kg/h/m 3 and 3.84 MJ/kg, respectively, when these objectives are optimized independently. It is observed that the flue gas pressure and bed rotational speed are the desired operating variables to vary for model-based design of experiments to reduce uncertainty in parameter estimation, as these two variables yielded the most information content based on the Fisher information matrix.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Direct numerical simulation of hypersonic turbulent boundary layers: effect of spatial evolution and Reynolds number

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) are performed to investigate the spatial evolution of flat-plate zero-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers over long streamwise domains ( >300δ i , with δ i the inflow boundary-layer thickness) at three different Mach numbers, 2.5, 4.9 and 10.9, with the surface temperatures ranging from quasiadiabatic to highly cooled conditions. The settlement of turbulence statistics into a fully developed equilibrium state of the turbulent boundary layer has been carefully monitored, either based on the satisfaction of the von Kármán integral equation or by comparing runs with different inflow turbulence generation techniques. The generated DNS database is used to characterize the streamwise evolution of multiple important variables in the high-Mach-number, cold-wall regime, including the skin friction, the Reynolds analogy factor, the shape factor, the Reynolds stresses, and the fluctuating wall quantities. The data confirm the validity of many classic and newer compressibility transformations at moderately high Reynolds numbers (up to friction Reynolds number Re τ ≈1200 ) and show that, with proper scaling, the sizes of the near-wall streaks and superstructures are insensitive to the Mach number and wall cooling conditions. The strong wall cooling in the hypersonic cold-wall case is found to cause a significant increase in the size of the near-wall turbulence eddies (relative to the boundary-layer thickness), which leads to a reduced-scale separation between the large and small turbulence scales, and in turn to a lack of an outer peak in the spanwise spectra of the streamwise velocity in the logarithmic region.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Effect of Computational Schemes on Coupled Flow and Geo-Mechanical Modeling of CO 2 Leakage through a Compromised Well

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technically viable processes to separate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial byproduct streams and inject it into deep geologic formations for long-term storage. Legacy wells located within the spatial domain of new injection and production activities represent potential pathways for fluids (i.e., CO 2 and aqueous phase) to leak through compromised components (e.g., through fractures or micro-annulus pathways). The finite element (FE) method is a well-established numerical approach to simulate the coupling between multi-phase fluid flow and solid phase deformation interactions that occur in a compromised well system. We assumed the spatial domain consists of a three-phases system: a solid, liquid, and gas phase. For flow in the two fluids phases, we considered two sets of primary variables: the first considering capillary pressure and gas pressure (PP) scheme, and the second considering liquid pressure and gas saturation (PS) scheme. Fluid phases were coupled with the solid phase using the full coupling (i.e., monolithic coupling) and iterative coupling (i.e., sequential coupling) approaches. The challenge of achieving numerical stability in the coupled formulation in heterogeneous media was addressed using the mass lumping and the upwinding techniques. Numerical results were compared with three benchmark problems to assess the performance of coupled FE solutions: 1D Terzaghi’s consolidation, Liakopoulos experiments, and the Kueper and Frind experiments. We found good agreement between our results and the three benchmark problems. For the Kueper and Frind test, the PP scheme successfully captured the observed experimental response of the non-aqueous phase infiltration, in contrast to the PS scheme. These exercises demonstrate the importance of fluid phase primary variable selection for heterogeneous porous media. We then applied the developed model to the hypothetical case of leakage along a compromised well representing a heterogeneous media. Considering the mass lumping and the upwinding techniques, both the monotonic and the sequential coupling provided identical results, but mass lumping was needed to avoid numerical instabilities in the sequential coupling. Additionally, in the monolithic coupling, the magnitude of primary variables in the coupled solution without mass lumping and the upwinding is higher, which is essential for the risk-based analyses.

deformation flow↗

Porosity in Sr 1-x Ca x FeO 3-δ oxygen carriers: The role of surface area and pretreatment on storage activity

Perovskite oxides have generated interest as robust, low-temperature oxygen carrier materials for a variety of clean energy applications, including chemical looping gasification and air separations. Methods to improve O 2 desorption kinetics are vital to allow these carriers to compete economically with traditional metal oxide carriers or cryogenic separations. In this report we investigated the cumulative roles that surface area, pretreatment, and elemental composition have on the oxygen storage properties of a state-of-the-art carrier system, Sr 1-x Ca x FeO 3-δ (x = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30) synthesized using multiple methods. Porous materials synthesized by the Pechini, or citrate, method had their surface area controlled using the synthesis temperature. The high surface area of the Sr 0.7 Ca 0.3 FeO 3-δ materials is most beneficial at low operating temperatures, such as 350 and 400 °C, as their reduction rates are twice as fast as those obtained with their bulk counterparts. These effects are observed at higher operating temperatures and within a single composition, but temperature tunability using variable Ca 2+ substitution in the Sr 1-x Ca x FeO 3-δ overshadows the improvements gained from higher surface areas. Additionally, we establish that pretreatment in N2 at an elevated temperature is necessary to enhance kinetics further. For maximum efficiency, pretreatment at the synthesis temperature is suggested for the Pechini method-synthesized systems, whereas 800 °C is adequate for bulk materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ion-Selective Scattering Studied Using the Variable-Energy Electron Irradiation in the Ba 0.2 K 0.8 Fe 2 As 2 Superconductor

Low-temperature variable-energy electron irradiation was used to induce non-magnetic disorder in a single crystal of a hole-doped iron-based superconductor, Ba $1-x$ K $x$ Fe 2 As 2 , $x$ = 0.80. To avoid systematic errors, the beam energy was adjusted non-consequently for five values between 1.0 and 2.5 MeV when sample resistance was measured in situ at 22 K. For all energies, the resistivity raises linearly with the irradiation fluence suggesting the creation of uncorrelated dilute point-like disorder (confirmed by simulations). The rate of the resistivity increase peaks at energies below 1.5 MeV. Comparison with calculated partial cross-sections points to the predominant creation of defects in the iron sublattice. Simultaneously, superconducting $T_c$, measured separately between the irradiation runs, is monotonically suppressed as expected, since it depends on the total scattering rate, hence on the total cross-section, which is a monotonically increasing function of the energy. Our work experimentally confirms an often-made assumption of the dominant role of the iron sub-lattice in iron-based superconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview

This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required

critical minerals and materials↗

Integrated Solutions for Optimized Performance (ISOP) Final Technical Report

The goal of this project was to demonstrate technical feasibility of an integrated approach for deep energy retrofits by packaging innovative technologies with smart communicating controls that represent the next generation of energy efficiency. The integrated solutions for optimized performance (ISOP) package integrates (i) advanced lighting and plug load controls; (ii) intelligent daylight harvesting through automated self-powered shades and window films; (iii) advanced HVAC controls sequences (ASHRAE Guideline (GDL) 36); and (iv) fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) and continuous commissioning (CCx) using advanced analytics. These technologies address energy use across multiple building end uses that represent more than 60% of the energy consumption in all commercial buildings. The project was structured to be implemented over three budget periods: Budget Period 1 scope included site selection, project design, site-specific customization of technology packages, procurement of technologies, initiation of installation of technologies, the development of a measurement and verification plan and collection of pre-retrofit data collection. The first year go/no-go decision was based on securing host sites representing 250,000 sq. ft. of occupied operational spaces, savings analysis, technology procurement and initiation of installation. Budget Period 2 planned to complete technology installations and initiate data collection of post-retrofit performance data. The second year go/no-go was to be the completion of technology installations and commissioning, metering and data collecting to support the requirements laid out in site specific M&V plans. Budget Period 3 planned to collect and analyze post-retrofit performance data and provide data and reporting to support energy efficiency rebate programs. After the team completed activities planned for Budget Period 1, the team reached a Go/No-Go Decision Point. At that point, TRC recommended that DOE discontinue the project without prejudice due to challenges with securing demonstration sites to meet the full 250,000 sf of occupied operational spaces and DOE concurred. In Budget Period 1, the TRC team developed criteria to recruit and evaluate potential demonstration host sites. TRC worked with Princeton University, the project demonstration partner, to identify buildings on their campus as potential candidates for the demonstration. Following the selection of demonstration sites, the TRC team customized energy technology packages according to the needs and characteristics of each site. TRC defined technology specifications, identified vendors, and conducted analysis to estimate energy and cost savings potential. The project team then developed schedules for technology procurement processes and scheduled for installation at all selected demonstration sites. The project team worked with Princeton University and DOE to develop an approach to verify energy savings achieved through measurement and verification (M&V) 2.0 methods. Princeton University initiated open bids to procure the necessary materials and installation contractors. Bid results came back higher than estimates due to a couple of factors – lack of familiarity of the bidders with the proposed technologies and lack of local trained installers to execute the installation of these new measures. Due to the higher bids, projects no longer met the internal cost-effectiveness criteria used by Princeton to proceed with procurement of the full suite of technologies as proposed in ISOP. Princeton had already procured parts of the ISOP package as part of a campus-wide initiative for FDD and lighting retrofits, but with the higher costs for other ISOP components, Princeton could no longer commit to the full ISOP package on the selected sites. Based on this, the team reached the Go/No-Go decision point, where they decided not to proceed with the project. Princeton is separately installing portions of the ISOP package where they individually meet Princeton’s payback criteria but on a different schedule than would have been needed for the DOE ISOP project. The team has learned several lessons from project progress in the first budget period. The team will utilize these lessons in future projects, as should any team which proceeds with a project around the ISOP technology. The first lesson is that more information about the proposed sites is required earlier in the process (perhaps even at the proposal stage) in order to have a successful demonstration. Technical details not evident earlier in the process (such as the TLED limitations for ALCS) can derail project execution. The second lesson is that pricing of emerging technologies is highly variable due to lack of familiarity of local installers and distributor with the proposed technologies as well as alternate bids using products they were more familiar with, but that cost more than the ones proposed by TRC. Finally, the last major lesson is that the host site’s internal project criteria is of critical importance. Based on these higher installed costs and lack of an informed installer base for the products proposed for this project, the project does not meet Princeton’s simple payback goals of five years.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Developing and Testing a Novel Stochastic Ice Microphysics Parameterization for Cloud and Climate Models Using ARM Field Campaign Data (Final Progress Report)

The major goals of this project were: 1) to use field campaign measurements from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program to characterize variability of important parameters describing properties of ice particles in the atmosphere; 2) based on this observational analysis, to develop a parameterization scheme for weather and climate models that stochastically varies these parameters, and implement the new scheme into a weather model called the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); 3) to use WRF coupled with the new stochastic scheme to simulate ARM field campaign thunderstorm cases and analyze how accounting for this parameter variability affects the model simulations. This work was performed jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Oklahoma, and University of Utah. To accomplish these goals, we extended an approach previously developed to characterize the variability in the size distribution of ice particles to parameters that are explicitly represented in models (i.e., relationships between ice particle mass and size, and between particle fall velocity and size). Our project was, to our knowledge, the first to apply observationally-constrained estimates of this parameter variability describing mass-size and fall velocity-size in a modeling framework. Our results showed efficacy of the approach, evaluated using ARM observations. Similarly, to our knowledge, work in this project was the first to propose and evaluate in detail a stochastic approach for unresolved turbulent mixing in high-resolution model simulations against detailed, benchmark large eddy simulations and ARM observations. Results showed some promising behavior, particularly with increased mixing and dilution of air in thunderstorm cores with surrounding environmental air, bringing the stochastic simulations closer to the benchmark large eddy simulations; however, results were somewhat degraded using stochastic mixing compared to observations from the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign. This project also further refined and applied a modeling methodology called “piggybacking” that can robustly separate dynamical and thermodynamic impacts of model changes, and comparison studies of different models based on cases developed from ARM observations. Finally, this project directly supported three graduate students who completed their PhDs as well as a postdoctoral research fellow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Annihilation-to-nothing: a quantum gravitational boundary condition for the Schwarzschild black hole

The interior of a static Schwarzschild metric can be written in terms of two functions, similar to some models of anisotropic cosmology. With a suitable choice of canonical variables, we solve the Wheeler-DeWitt equation (WDW) inside the horizon of a Schwarzschild black hole. By imposing classicality near the horizon, and requiring boundedness of the wave function, we get a rather generic solution of the WDW equation, whose steepest-descent solution, i.e., the ridge of the wave function, coincides nicely with the classical trajectory. However, there is an ambiguity in defining the arrow of time which leads to two possible interpretations—(i) if there is only one arrow of time, one can infer that the steepest-descent of the wave function follows the classical trajectory throughout: coming from the event horizon and going all the way down to the singularity, while (ii) if there are two different arrows of time in two separate regimes, it can be inferred that the steepest-descent of the wave function comes inwards from the event horizon in one region while it moves outwards from the singularity in the other region, and there exists an annihilation process of these two parts of the wave function inside the horizon. Additionally, adopting the second interpretation could shed light on the information loss paradox: as time goes on, probabilities for histories that include black holes and singularities decay to zero and eventually only trivial geometries dominate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NGEE Arctic Phase 4 Plant Functional Type Framework for Pan-Arctic Vegetation

The NGEE-Arctic research team identified a common set of hierarchical plant functional types (PFTs) for pan-arctic vegetation that we will use across our research activities. Interdisciplinary work within a large team requires agreement regarding levels of functional organization so that knowledge, data, and technologies can be shared and combined effectively. The team has identified plant functional types as a crucial area where such interoperability is needed. PFTs are used to represent plant pools and fluxes within models, summarize observational data, and map vegetation across the landscape. Within each of these applications, varying levels of PFT specificity are needed according to the specific scientific research goal, computational limitations, and data availability. By agreeing on a specific hierarchical framework for grouping variables in our vegetation data, we ensure the resulting research products will be robust, flexible, and scalable. In this document, we lay out the agreed upon PFT framework with definitions and references to existing literature. Table 1 included in the "NGA700_Phase4PFTFramework_about*" file outlines the relationship between NGEE-Arctic Phase 4, Tier 1 PFTs and the PFTs used within prominent arctic literature as well as publications by the NGEE-Arctic team during phases 1-3.This dataset consists of a table detailing a hierarchical PFT framework that spans 4 tiers with the most granular PFTs listed in tier 1 and the most general PFTs in tier 4. The PFTs within each tier has a single column in the dataset where the PFTs are named and a separate column where the characteristics used to define that PFT are listed. Grey fill of the cells is used to indicate where a given PFT starts to “lose” tier 1 details as you look from left to right. Note the excel file has merged cells to indicate grouping of PFTs across the Tiers- it will not translate into a delimited filetype (.csv, .txt, etc) without modification thus the hierarchical PFT framework table is available in three different file formats: 1) NGA700_Phase4PTS.xlsx – maintains the merged cells and grey fill; 2) NGA700_Phase4PTS.csv – merged cells are split, and grey fill is removed; 3) NGA700_Phase4PTS.pdf – image of the table with merged cells and grey fill. Metadata document included as a *.pdf and file-level metadata and data dictionary as *.csv files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distributed Quantum-Enhanced Optimization: A Topographical Preconditioning Approach for High-Dimensional Search

Optimization problems become fundamentally challenging as the number of variables increases. Because the volume of the search space grows exponentially, classical algorithms frequently fail to locate the global minimum of non-convex functions. While quantum optimization offers a potential alternative, mapping continuous problems onto near-term quantum hardware introduces severe scaling limits and barren plateaus. To bridge this gap, we propose the Distributed Quantum-Enhanced Optimization (D-QEO) framework. Instead of forcing the quantum processor to find the exact minimum, we use it simply as a topographical preconditioner. The QPU maps the landscape to locate the most promising basin of attraction, generating high-quality seed points for a classical GPU-accelerated solver to refine. To make this approach viable for utility-scale problems, we exploit the mathematical structure of separable functions. This allows us to cut a 50-qubit (i.e., $2^{50}$) global search space into independent and manageable sub-spaces using 5-qubit subcircuits. By executing these fragments concurrently with CUDA-Q, we completely bypass the overhead of cross-register entanglement and classical tensor knitting for separable functions. Benchmarks on the 10-dimensional Rastrigin and Ackley functions show that D-QEO prevents the exponential failure rates observed in purely classical algorithms. Furthermore, this quantum warm-start significantly reduces the number of classical BFGS iterations required to converge, providing a highly practical blueprint for utilizing near-term quantum resources in complex global search.

Soos, Dominik [Old Dominion U.]↗