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At least 505 records · Page 28

Small Launch Vehicle Trade Space Definition: Development of a Zero Level Mass Estimation Tool with Trajectory Validation

Recent high level interest in the capability of small launch vehicles has placed significant demand on determining the trade space these vehicles occupy. This has led to the development of a zero level analysis tool that can quickly determine the minimum expected vehicle gross liftoff weight (GLOW) in terms of vehicle stage specific impulse (Isp) and propellant mass fraction (pmf) for any given payload value. Utilizing an extensive background in Earth to orbit trajectory experience a total necessary delta v the vehicle must achieve can be estimated including relevant loss terms. This foresight into expected losses allows for more specific assumptions relating to the initial estimates of thrust to weight values for each stage. This tool was further validated against a trajectory model, in this case the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), to determine if the initial sizing delta v was adequate to meet payload expectations. Presented here is a description of how the tool is setup and the approach the analyst must take when using the tool. Also, expected outputs which are dependent on the type of small launch vehicle being sized will be displayed. The method of validation will be discussed as well as where the sizing tool fits into the vehicle design process.

Waters, Eric D.↗

Tackling the curse of dimensionality in fractional and tempered fractional PDEs with physics-informed neural networks

Fractional and tempered fractional partial differential equations (PDEs) are effective models of long-range interactions, anomalous diffusion, and non-local effects. Traditional numerical methods for these problems are mesh-based, thus struggling with the curse of dimensionality (CoD). Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer a promising solution due to their universal approximation, generalization ability, and mesh-free training. In principle, Monte Carlo fractional PINN (MC-fPINN) estimates fractional derivatives using Monte Carlo methods and thus could lift CoD. However, this may cause significant variance and errors, hence affecting convergence; in addition, MC-fPINN is sensitive to hyperparameters. In general, numerical methods and specifically PINNs for tempered fractional PDEs are under-developed. Herein, we extend MC-fPINN to tempered fractional PDEs to address these issues, resulting in the Monte Carlo tempered fractional PINN (MC-tfPINN). To reduce possible high variance and errors from Monte Carlo sampling, we replace the one-dimensional (1D) Monte Carlo with 1D Gaussian quadrature, applicable to both MC-fPINN and MC-tfPINN. We validate our methods on various forward and inverse problems of fractional and tempered fractional PDEs, scaling up to 100,000 dimensions. Our improved MC-fPINN/MC-tfPINN using quadrature consistently outperforms the original versions in accuracy and convergence speed in very high dimensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Azimuthally-dependent Finite Element Solution to the Cylindrical Resonator

The cylindrical cavity resonator loaded with an anisotropic dielectric is analyzed as a two-dimensional problem using a finite element approach that assumes sinusoidal dependence in azimuth. This methodology allows the first finite element treatment of the technically important case of a resonator containing a sapphire element with a cylindrically aligned c axis. Second order trial functions together with quadrilateral elements are adopted in the calculations. The method was validated through comparisons with the analytical solutions for the hollow metal cavity and a coaxial cavity, as well as through measurements on a shielded sapphire resonator.

cylindrical resonator two-dimensional finite eleme↗

Lost and Found Opportunities Around the Chlorine Worth Study

Los Alamos National Laboratory performed a series of critical experiments in 2021 to examine the worth of chlorine in plutonium-fueled systems. This series of experiments has been dubbed the “Chlorine Worth Study,” and the evaluation of the experiments was presented to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Technical Review Group in April, 2023. The primary purpose of these experiments was to enable validation of aqueous solutions crediting neutron absorption in 35 Cl. An external, independent view of the events leading up to the design and execution of these experiments indicates a missed opportunity to leverage sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis to assert validation without the experiments by taking an additional margin for the lack of direct validation of chlorine. On the other hand, the execution of these experiments also presents a rare opportunity to examine the efficacy of the S/U approach and extract useful information about the evaluated chlorine covariance data. TSUNAMI-1D models of representative application solutions were created and used to generate sensitivity data. Varying plutonium and chlorine concentrations were considered to examine the impact of these differences on the chlorine sensitivities and uncertainties. The data-induced uncertainty in k eff resulting from chlorine was calculated directly from uncertainty information calculated in the TSUNAMI-1D sequence. In all cases, this uncertainty was less than 0.1 %Δk. This result could potentially be used to justify a reactivity margin to account for the validation gap related to chlorine in the validation set. On the other hand, given that the experiments were performed, the community should endeavor to extract as much value from them and their results as possible. The results can be used to examine the actual bias associated with chlorine in these systems once the evaluations have been released. These data can be compared with the data-induced uncertainty margin discussed above to test the sufficiency of the validation gap penalty. This result will provide an indication of the performance of the chlorine covariance data specifically and the S/U validation approach generally. More advanced S/U techniques may also be employed to determine reactivity sensitivities associated with the chlorine in the experiments, potentially generating a more robust test of the chlorine covariance data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Solar extreme ultraviolet sensor and advanced langmuir probe

For more than two decades, the staff of the Space Physics Research Laboratory (SPRL) has collaborated with the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in the design and implementation of Langmuir probes (LP). This program of probe development under the direction of Larry Brace of GSFC has evolved methodically with innovations to: improve measurement precision, increase the speed of measurement, and reduce the weight, size, power consumption and data rate of the instrument. Under contract NAG5-419 these improvements were implemented and are what characterize the Advanced Langmuir Probe (ALP). Using data from the Langmuir Probe on the Pioneer Venus Orbiter, Brace and Walter Hoegy of GSFC demonstrated a novel method of monitoring the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux. This led to the idea of developing a sensor similar to a Langmuir probe specifically designed to measure solar EUV (SEUV) that uses a similar electronics package. Under this contract, a combined instrument package of the ALP and SEUV sensor was to be designed, constructed, and laboratory tested. Finally the instrument was to be flight tested as part of sounding rocket experiment to acquire the necessary data to validate this method for possible use in future earth and planetary aeronomy missions. The primary purpose of this contract was to develop the electronics hardware and software for this instrument, since the actual sensors were suppied by GSFC. Due to budget constraints, only a flight model was constructed. These electronics were tested and calibrated in the laboratory, and then the instrument was integrated into the rocket payload at Wallops Flight Facility where it underwent environmental testing. After instrument recalibration at SPRL, the payload was reintegrated and launched from the Poker Flat Research Range near Fairbanks Alaska. The payload was successfully recovered and after refurbishment underwent further testing and developing to improve its performance for future use.

Voronka, N. R.↗

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Turbomachinery noise

Summarized here are key advances in experimental techniques and theoretical applications which point the way to a broad understanding and control of turbomachinery noise. On the experimental side, the development of effective inflow control techniques makes it possible to conduct, in ground based facilities, definitive experiments in internally controlled blade row interactions. Results can now be valid indicators of flight behavior and can provide a firm base for comparison with analytical results. Inflow control coupled with detailed diagnostic tools such as blade pressure measurements can be used to uncover the more subtle mechanisms such as rotor strut interaction, which can set tone levels for some engine configurations. Initial mappings of rotor wake-vortex flow fields have provided a data base for a first generation semiempirical flow disturbance model. Laser velocimetry offers a nonintrusive method for validating and improving the model. Digital data systems and signal processing algorithms are bringing mode measurement closer to a working tool that can be frequently applied to a real machine such as a turbofan engine. On the analytical side, models of most of the links in the chain from turbomachine blade source to far field observation point have been formulated. Three dimensional lifting surface theory for blade rows, including source noncompactness and cascade effects, blade row transmission models incorporating mode and frequency scattering, and modal radiation calculations, including hybrid numerical-analytical approaches, are tools which await further application.

Groeneweg, John F.↗

Statistical Methods for Rapid Aerothermal Analysis and Design Technology: Validation

The cost and safety goals for NASA s next generation of reusable launch vehicle (RLV) will require that rapid high-fidelity aerothermodynamic design tools be used early in the design cycle. To meet these requirements, it is desirable to identify adequate statistical models that quantify and improve the accuracy, extend the applicability, and enable combined analyses using existing prediction tools. The initial research work focused on establishing suitable candidate models for these purposes. The second phase is focused on assessing the performance of these models to accurately predict the heat rate for a given candidate data set. This validation work compared models and methods that may be useful in predicting the heat rate.

DePriest, Douglas↗

A Full-Envelope Air Data Calibration and Three-Dimensional Wind Estimation Method Using Global Output-Error Optimization and Flight-Test Techniques

A novel, efficient air data calibration method is proposed for aircraft with limited envelopes. This method uses output-error optimization on three-dimensional inertial velocities to estimate calibration and wind parameters. Calibration parameters are based on assumed calibration models for static pressure, angle of attack, and flank angle. Estimated wind parameters are the north, east, and down components. The only assumptions needed for this method are that the inertial velocities and Euler angles are accurate, the calibration models are correct, and that the steady-state component of wind is constant throughout the maneuver. A two-minute maneuver was designed to excite the aircraft over the range of air data calibration parameters and de-correlate the angle-of-attack bias from the vertical component of wind. Simulation of the X-48B (The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) aircraft was used to validate the method, ultimately using data derived from wind-tunnel testing to simulate the un-calibrated air data measurements. Results from the simulation were accurate and robust to turbulence levels comparable to those observed in flight. Future experiments are planned to evaluate the proposed air data calibration in a flight environment.

Taylor, Brian R.↗

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Gust Acoustic Response of a Single Airfoil Using the Space-Time CE/SE Method

A 2D parallel Euler code based on the space-time conservation element and solution element (CE/SE) method is validated by solving the benchmark problem I in Category 3 of the Third CAA Workshop. This problem concerns the acoustic field generated by the interaction of a convected harmonic vortical gust with a single airfoil. Three gust frequencies, two gust configurations, and three airfoil geometries are considered. Numerical results at both near and far fields are presented and compared with the analytical solutions, a frequency-domain solver GUST3D solutions, and a time-domain high-order Discontinuous Spectral Element Method (DSEM) solutions. It is shown that the CE/SE solutions agree well with the GUST3D solution for the lowest frequency, while there are discrepancies between CE/SE and GUST3D solutions for higher frequencies. However, the CE/SE solution is in good agreement with the DSEM solution for these higher frequencies. It demonstrates that the CE/SE method can produce accurate results of CAA problems involving complex geometries by using unstructured meshes.

Scott, James↗

Propfan test assessment testbed aircraft flutter model test report

The PropFan Test Assessment (PTA) program includes flight tests of a propfan power plant mounted on the left wind of a modified Gulfstream II testbed aircraft. A static balance boom is mounted on the right wing tip for lateral balance. Flutter analyses indicate that these installations reduce the wing flutter stabilizing speed and that torsional stiffening and the installation of a flutter stabilizing tip boom are required on the left wing for adequate flutter safety margins. Wind tunnel tests of a 1/9th scale high speed flutter model of the testbed aircraft were conducted. The test program included the design, fabrication, and testing of the flutter model and the correlation of the flutter test data with analysis results. Excellent correlations with the test data were achieved in posttest flutter analysis using actual model properties. It was concluded that the flutter analysis method used was capable of accurate flutter predictions for both the (symmetric) twin propfan configuration and the (unsymmetric) single propfan configuration. The flutter analysis also revealed that the differences between the tested model configurations and the current aircraft design caused the (scaled) model flutter speed to be significantly higher than that of the aircraft, at least for the single propfan configuration without a flutter boom. Verification of the aircraft final design should, therefore, be based on flutter predictions made with the test validated analysis methods.

Jenness, C. M. J.↗

Characterizing post-fire delayed tree mortality with remote sensing: sizing up the elephant in the room

Abstract Background Despite recent advances in understanding the drivers of tree-level delayed mortality, we lack a method for mapping delayed mortality at landscape and regional scales. Consequently, the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on post-fire landscape patterns of burn severity are unknown. We introduce a remote sensing approach for mapping delayed mortality based on post-fire decline in the normalized burn ratio (NBR). NBR decline is defined as the change in NBR between the first post-fire measurement and the minimum NBR value up to 5 years post-fire for each pixel. We validate the method with high-resolution aerial photography from six wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington, USA, and then compare the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on landscape patterns of burn severity among fires and forest types. Results NBR decline was significantly correlated with post-fire canopy mortality (r 2 = 0.50) and predicted the presence of delayed mortality with 83% accuracy based on a threshold of 105 NBR decline. Plots with NBR decline greater than 105 were 23 times more likely to experience delayed mortality than those below the threshold (p < 0.001). Delayed mortality occurred across 6–38% of fire perimeters not affected by stand-replacing fire, generally affecting more areas in cold (22–41%) and wet (30%) forest types than in dry (1.7–19%) types. The total area initially mapped as unburned/very low-severity declined an average of 38.1% and generally persisted in smaller, more fragmented patches when considering delayed mortality. The total area initially mapped as high-severity increased an average of 16.2% and shifted towards larger, more contiguous patches. Conclusions Differences between 1- and 5-year post-fire burn severity maps depict dynamic post-fire mosaics resulting from delayed mortality, with variability among fires reflecting a range of potential drivers. We demonstrate that tree-level delayed mortality scales up to alter higher-level landscape patterns of burn severity with important implications for forest resilience and a range of fire-driven ecological outcomes. Our method can complement existing tree-level studies on drivers of delayed mortality, refine mapping of fire refugia, inform estimates of habitat and carbon losses, and provide a more comprehensive assessment of landscape and regional scale fire effects and trends.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗

Development of Standards for Nondestructive Evaluation of COPVs Used in Aerospace Applications

Composite OverWrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are currently accepted by NASA based on design and qualification requirements and generally not verified by NDE for the following reasons: (1) Manufactures and end users generally do not have experience and validated quantitative methods of detecting flaws and defects of concern (1-a) If detected, the flaws are not adequately quantified and it is unclear how they may contribute to degradation in mechanical response (1-b) Carbon-epoxy COPVs also extremely sensitive to impact damage and impacts may be below the visible detection threshold (2) If damage is detected, this generally results in rejection since the effect on mechanical response is generally not known (3) NDE response has not generally been fully characterized, probability of detection (POD) established, and processes validated for evaluation of vessel condition as manufactured and delivered.

Waller, Jess M.↗

First-Principles Modeling of the Repassivation of Corrosion Resistant Alloys: Part II. Surface Adsorption Isotherms for Alloys and the Chloride Susceptibility Index

Quantitatively predicting the corrosion resistance of alloys is vital to the design and application of the next generation of superior corrosion resistant alloys (CRAs). Here, the Chloride Susceptibility Index (CSI), a scientifically based quantitative descriptor for repassivation tendency of CRAs, is proposed as a metric constructed through combining atomistically resolved information regarding adsorption and alloy surface composition with environmental conditions such as applied potential, temperature, pH, and Cl – concentration. Using this method, the response of CRAs to relevant environments can be predicted. CSI is determined by: (1) estimation of thermoequilibrium surface coverages of O and Cl by a Langmuir isotherm model using adsorption energies of different species (O, Cl, OH, H 2 O) obtained from DFT. (2) determination of CSI by integrating Cl surface coverage over a realistic window of applied potentials, thereby incorporating the effect of Cl surface coverage and electrochemical environment simultaneously. A series of Ni-Cr-X alloys was used as an example to develop and validate the method through studying the effect of different alloy solutes X on chloride resistance. Here, the trends and relations predicted by CSI are in qualitative agreements with experimental observations. Moreover, a quantitative correlation is found between CSI and the repassivation potential.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Overcoming time and complexity limitations in molecular dynamics investigations of equilibrium melting

Abstract A hybrid Monte-Carlo molecular-dynamics method for determining solidus and liquidus compositions in multicomponent systems is presented that overcomes both the time limitations in conventional molecular dynamics that prevent the evolution of distinct solid and liquid compositions via diffusion and the complexity challenge that prevents use of thermodynamic assessment in systems of many components. This hybrid method is validated in the Cu–Ni system against an independent assessment of solidus and liquidus compositions based on the regular solution model. Strategies for efficient mapping of different phase diagrams, based on the thermodynamic parameter T 0 , the temperature at which two phases of the composition X 0 have equal free energies, are presented and then demonstrated for the copper-nickel fully miscible system and the gold–silicon eutectic system. A calculation of the solidus and liquidus sampled during the equilibrium melting of equiatomic CrMnFeCoNi is performed, indicating that this method has potential to be extended to the study of many component alloys.

Au-Si↗