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DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian sequential optimal experimental design for nonlinear models using policy gradient reinforcement learning

We present a mathematical framework and computational methods for optimally designing a finite sequence of experiments. This sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) problem is formulated as a finite-horizon partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) under a Bayesian setting and with information-theoretic utilities. The formulation is general and may accommodate continuous random variables, non-Gaussian posteriors, and nonlinear forward models. The sOED design policy incorporates elements of feedback and lookahead simultaneously, and we show it to generalize the commonly-used batch and greedy design strategies. We solve for the sOED policy using the policy gradient (PG) method from reinforcement learning, and provide a derivation for the PG expression in the sOED context. Adopting an actor-critic approach, the policy and value functions are parameterized using deep neural networks and improved via PG estimates produced from simulated episodes of designs and observations. The new PG-sOED algorithm is first validated on a linear-Gaussian benchmark, and then compared against other design baselines on a sensor movement problem for contaminant source inversion in a convection-diffusion field. As a result, we provide explanation for the policy behaviors using knowledge of the underlying physical process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Comprehensive Structural Dynamic Analysis Approach for Multi Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) Development

The anticipated NASA Mars Sample Return Mission (MSR) requires a simple and reliable method in which to return collected Martian samples back to earth for scientific analysis. The Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV) is NASA's proposed solution to this MSR requirement. Key aspects of the MMEEV are its reliable and passive operation, energy absorbing foam-composite structure, and modular impact sphere (IS) design. To aid in the development of an EEV design that can be modified for various missions requirements, two fully parametric finite element models were developed. The first model was developed in an explicit finite element code and was designed to evaluate the impact response of the vehicle and payload during the final stage of the vehicle's return to earth. The second model was developed in an explicit code and was designed to evaluate the static and dynamic structural response of the vehicle during launch and reentry. In contrast to most other FE models, built through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) pre-processor, the current model was developed using a coding technique that allows the analyst to quickly change nearly all aspects of the model including: geometric dimensions, material properties, load and boundary conditions, mesh properties, and analysis controls. Using the developed design tool, a full range of proposed designs can quickly be analyzed numerically and thus the design trade space for the EEV can be fully understood. An engineer can then quickly reach the best design for a specific mission and also adapt and optimize the general design for different missions.

Perino, Scott↗

DOE OSTI2021

hr-Adaptivity for nonconforming high-order meshes with the target matrix optimization paradigm

In this study, we present an \(hr\) -adaptivity framework for optimization of high-order meshes. This work extends the r -adaptivity method by Dobrev et al. (Comput Fluids, 2020), where we utilized the Target-Matrix Optimization Paradigm (TMOP) to minimize a functional that depends on each element’s current and target geometric parameters: element aspect-ratio , size , skew , and rotation . Since fixed mesh topology limits the ability to achieve the target size and aspect-ratio at each position, in this paper, we augment the r -adaptivity framework with nonconforming adaptive mesh refinement to further reduce the error with respect to the target geometric parameters. The proposed formulation, referred to as \(hr\) -adaptivity, introduces TMOP-based quality estimators to satisfy the aspect-ratio target via anisotropic refinements and size target via isotropic refinements in each element of the mesh. The methodology presented is purely algebraic, extends to both simplices and hexahedra/quadrilaterals of any order, and supports nonconforming isotropic and anisotropic refinements in 2D and 3D. Using a problem with a known exact solution, we demonstrate the effectiveness of \(hr\) -adaptivity over both r - and \(h\) -adaptivity in obtaining similar accuracy in the solution with significantly fewer mesh nodes. We also present several examples that show that \(hr\) -adaptivity can help satisfy geometric targets even when \(r\) -adaptivity fails to do so, due to the topology of the initial mesh.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Unstructured Mesh Methods for the Simulation of Hypersonic Flows

This report describes the research work undertaken at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The aim of this research is to identify effective algorithms and methodologies for the efficient and routine solution of hypersonic viscous flows about re-entry vehicles. For over ten years we have received support from NASA to develop unstructured mesh methods for Computational Fluid Dynamics. As a result of this effort a methodology based on the use, of unstructured adapted meshes of tetrahedra and finite volume flow solvers has been developed. A number of gridding algorithms flow solvers, and adaptive strategies have been proposed. The most successful algorithms developed from the basis of the unstructured mesh system FELISA. The FELISA system has been extensively for the analysis of transonic and hypersonic flows about complete vehicle configurations. The system is highly automatic and allows for the routine aerodynamic analysis of complex configurations starting from CAD data. The code has been parallelized and utilizes efficient solution algorithms. For hypersonic flows, a version of the, code which incorporates real gas effects, has been produced. One of the latest developments before the start of this grant was to extend the system to include viscous effects. This required the development of viscous generators, capable of generating the anisotropic grids required to represent boundary layers, and viscous flow solvers. In figures I and 2, we show some sample hypersonic viscous computations using the developed viscous generators and solvers. Although these initial results were encouraging, it became apparent that in order to develop a fully functional capability for viscous flows, several advances in gridding, solution accuracy, robustness and efficiency were required. As part of this research we have developed: 1) automatic meshing techniques and the corresponding computer codes have been delivered to NASA and implemented into the GridEx system, 2) a finite element algorithm for the solution of the viscous compressible flow equations which can solve flows all the way down to the incompressible limit and that can use higher order (quadratic) approximations leading to highly accurate answers, and 3) and iterative algebraic multigrid solution techniques.

Peraire, Jaime↗

NASA NTRS2007

Investigation of Liner Characteristics in the NASA Langley Curved Duct Test Rig

The Curved Duct Test Rig (CDTR), which is designed to investigate propagation of sound in a duct with flow, has been developed at NASA Langley Research Center. The duct incorporates an adaptive control system to generate a tone in the duct at a specific frequency with a target Sound Pressure Level and a target mode shape. The size of the duct, the ability to isolate higher order modes, and the ability to modify the duct configuration make this rig unique among experimental duct acoustics facilities. An experiment is described in which the facility performance is evaluated by measuring the sound attenuation by a sample duct liner. The liner sample comprises one wall of the liner test section. Sound in tones from 500 to 2400 Hz, with modes that are parallel to the liner surface of order 0 to 5, and that are normal to the liner surface of order 0 to 2, can be generated incident on the liner test section. Tests are performed in which sound is generated without axial flow in the duct and with flow at a Mach number of 0.275. The attenuation of the liner is determined by comparing the sound power in a hard wall section downstream of the liner test section to the sound power in a hard wall section upstream of the liner test section. These experimentally determined attenuations are compared to numerically determined attenuations calculated by means of a finite element analysis code. The code incorporates liner impedance values educed from measured data from the NASA Langley Grazing Incidence Tube, a test rig that is used for investigating liner performance with flow and with (0,0) mode incident grazing. The analytical and experimental results compare favorably, indicating the validity of the finite element method and demonstrating that finite element prediction tools can be used together with experiment to characterize the liner attenuation.

Gerhold, Carl H.↗

DOE OSTI2012

Integration of Heat Transfer, Stress, and Particle Trajectory Simulation

Calabazas Creek Research, Inc. developed and currently markets Beam Optics Analyzer (BOA) in the United States and abroad. BOA is a 3D, charged particle optics code that solves the electric and magnetic fields with and without the presence of particles. It includes automatic and adaptive meshing to resolve spatial scales ranging from a few millimeters to meters. It is fully integrated with CAD packages, such as SolidWorks, allowing seamless geometry updates. The code includes iterative procedures for optimization, including a fully functional, graphical user interface. Recently, time dependent, particle in cell capability was added, pushing particles synchronically under quasistatic electromagnetic fields to obtain particle bunching under RF conditions. A heat transfer solver was added during this Phase I program. Completed tasks include: (1) Added a 3D finite element heat transfer solver with adaptivity; (2) Determined the accuracy of the linear heat transfer field solver to provide the basis for development of higher order solvers in Phase II; (3) Provided more accurate and smoother power density fields; and (4) Defined the geometry using the same CAD model, while maintaining different meshes, and interfacing the power density field between the particle simulator and heat transfer solvers. These objectives were achieved using modern programming techniques and algorithms. All programming was in C++ and parallelization in OpenMP, utilizing state-of-the-art multi-core technology. Both x86 and x64 versions are supported. The GUI design and implementation used Microsoft Foundation Class.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Detection of Cracks at Welds in Steel Tubing Using Flux Focusing Electromagnetic Probe

The inspection of weldments in critical pressure vessel joints is a major concern in the nuclear power industry. Corrosive environments can speed the fatigue process and access to the critical area is often limited. Eddy current techniques have begun to be used to help overcome these obstacles [1]. As direct contact and couplants are not required, remote areas can be inspected by simply snaking an eddy current coil into the intake tube of the vessel. The drawback of the eddy current method has been the high sensitivity to small changes in the conductivity and permeability of the test piece which are known to vary at weldments [1]. The flaw detection mechanism of the flux focusing electromagnetic probe can help alleviate these difficulties and provide a unique capability for detecting longitudinal fatigue cracks in critical tube structures. The Flux Focusing Electromagnetic Flaw Detector, originally invented for the detection of fatigue and corrosion damage in aluminum plates [2-3], has been adapted for use in testing steel tubing for longitudinal fatigue cracks. The modified design allows for the probe to be placed axisymmetrically into the tubing, inducing eddy currents in the tube wall. The pickup coil of the probe is fixed slightly below the primary windings and is rotated 90 so that its axis is normal to the tube wall. The magnetic flux of the primary coil is focused through the use of ferromagnetic material so that in the absence of fatigue damage there will be no flux linkage with the pickup coil. The presence of a longitudinal fatigue crack will cause the eddy currents induced in the tube wall to flow around the flaw and directly under the pickup coil. The magnetic field associated with these currents will then link the pickup coil and an unambiguous increase in the output voltage of the probe will be measured. The use of the flux focusing electromagnetic probe is especially suited for the detection of flaws originating at or near tube welds. The probe is shown to discriminate against signals due solely to the weld joint so that flaw signals are not hidden in the background in these locations. Experimental and finite element modeling results are presented for the flaw detection capabilities of the probe in stainless steel tubes.

Wincheski, Buzz↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking of massively parallel phase-field codes for directional solidification

We present a detailed benchmark comparing two state-of-the-art phase-field implementations for simulating alloy solidification under experimentally relevant conditions. The study investigates the directional solidification of Al-3wt%Cu under high-velocity solidification conditions and SCN-0.46wt% camphor under microgravity conditions from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) DECLIC-DSI-R experiments. Both codes, one employing finite-difference discretization with uniform mesh and GPU-acceleration (GPU-PF) and the other one employing finite-element discretization with adaptive-mesh and CPU-parallelization (PRISMS-PF), solve the same quantitative phase-field formulation that incorporates an anti-trapping current for the solidification of dilute alloys. We evaluate the predictions of each code for dendritic morphology, primary spacing, and tip dynamics in both 2D and 3D, as well as their numerical convergence and computational performance. While existing benchmark problems have primarily focused on simplified or small-scale simulations, they do not reflect the computational and modeling challenges posed by employing experimentally relevant time and length scales. Our results provide a practical framework for assessing phase-field code performance as well as validating and facilitating their application in integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) workflows that require integration with realistic experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

A hybridized discontinuous Galerkin method on mapped deforming domains

Here in this paper we present a hybridized discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization for unsteady simulations of convection-dominated flows on mapped deforming domains. Mesh deformation is achieved through an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian transformation with an analytical mapping. We present details of this transformation applied to the HDG system of equations, with focus on the auxiliary gradient equation, viscous stabilization, and output calculation. We discuss conditions under which optimal unsteady output convergence rates can be attained, and we show that both HDG and discontinuous Galerkin (DG) achieve these rates in advection-dominated flows. Results for scalar advection-diffusion and the Euler equations verify the implementation of the mesh motion mapping for both discretizations, show that HDG and DG yield similar results on a given mesh, and demonstrate differences in output convergence rates depending on the choice of HDG viscous stabilization. We note that such similar results bode well for HDG, which has fewer globally-coupled degrees of freedom compared to DG. A simulation of the unsteady compressible Navier-Stokes equations demonstrates again very similar results for HDG and DG and illustrates a pitfall of using steady-state adapted meshes for accurate unsteady simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Resonant ultrasound spectroscopy for materials with high damping and samples of arbitrary geometry

This paper describes resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (RUS) as a powerful and established technique for measuring elastic constants of a material with general anisotropy. The first step of this technique consists of extracting resonance frequencies and damping from the vibrational frequency spectrum measured on a sample with free boundary conditions. An inversion technique is then used to retrieve the elastic tensor from the measured resonance frequencies. As originally developed, RUS has been mostly applicable to (i) materials with small damping such that the resonances of the sample are well separated and (ii) samples with simple geometries for which analytical solutions exist. In this paper, these limitations are addressed with a new RUS approach adapted to materials with high damping and samples of arbitrary geometry. Resonances are extracted by fitting a sum of exponentially damped sinusoids to the measured frequency spectrum. The inversion of the elastic tensor is achieved with a genetic algorithm, which allows searching for a global minimum within a discrete and relatively wide solution space. First, the accuracy of the proposed approach is evaluated against numerical data simulated for samples with isotropic symmetry and transversely isotropic symmetry. Subsequently, the applicability of the approach is demonstrated using experimental data collected on a composite structure consisting of a cylindrical sample of Berea sandstone glued to a large piezoelectric disk. In the proposed experiments, RUS is further enhanced by the use of a 3-D laser vibrometer allowing the visualization of most of the modes in the frequency band studied.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2011

Neutronics Modeling of the High Flux Isotope Reactor using COMSOL

The High Flux Isotope Reactor located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory is a versatile 85 MWth research reactor with cold and thermal neutron scattering, materials irradiation, isotope production, and neutron activation analysis capabilities. HFIR staff members are currently in the process of updating the thermal hydraulic and reactor transient modeling methodologies. COMSOL Multiphysics has been adopted for the thermal hydraulic analyses and has proven to be a powerful finite-element-based simulation tool for solving multiple physics-based systems of partial and ordinary differential equations. Modeling reactor transients is a challenging task because of the coupling of neutronics, heat transfer, and hydrodynamics. This paper presents a preliminary COMSOL-based neutronics study performed by creating a two-dimensional, two-group, diffusion neutronics model of HFIR to study the spatially-dependent, beginning-of-cycle fast and thermal neutron fluxes. The 238-group ENDF/B-VII neutron cross section library and NEWT, a two-dimensional, discrete-ordinates neutron transport code within the SCALE 6 code package, were used to calculate the two-group neutron cross sections required to solve the diffusion equations. The two-group diffusion equations were implemented in the COMSOL coefficient form PDE application mode and were solved via eigenvalue analysis using a direct (PARDISO) linear system solver. A COMSOL-provided adaptive mesh refinement algorithm was used to increase the number of elements in areas of largest numerical error to increase the accuracy of the solution. The flux distributions calculated by means of COMSOL/SCALE compare well with those calculated with benchmarked three-dimensional MCNP and KENO models, a necessary first step along the path to implementing two- and three-dimensional models of HFIR in COMSOL for the purpose of studying the spatial dependence of transient-induced behavior in the reactor core.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A coupled discontinuous Galerkin-Finite Volume framework for solving gas dynamics over embedded geometries

Herein, we present a computational framework for solving the equations of inviscid gas dynamics using structured grids with embedded geometries. The novelty of the proposed approach is the use of high-order discontinuous Galerkin (dG) schemes and a shock-capturing Finite Volume (FV) scheme coupled via an hp adaptive mesh refinement (hp-AMR) strategy that offers high-order accurate resolution of the embedded geometries. The hp-AMR strategy is based on a multi-level block-structured domain partition in which each level is represented by block-structured Cartesian grids and the embedded geometry is represented implicitly by a level set function. The intersection of the embedded geometry with the grids produces the implicitly-defined mesh that consists of a collection of regular rectangular cells plus a relatively small number of irregular curved elements in the vicinity of the embedded boundaries. High-order quadrature rules for implicitly-defined domains enable high-order accuracy resolution of the curved elements with a cell-merging strategy to address the small-cell problem. The hp-AMR algorithm treats the system with a second-order finite volume scheme at the finest level to dynamically track the evolution of solution discontinuities while using dG schemes at coarser levels to provide high-order accuracy in smooth regions of the flow. On the dG levels, the methodology supports different orders of basis functions on different levels. The space-discretized governing equations are then advanced explicitly in time using high-order Runge-Kutta algorithms. Numerical tests are presented for two-dimensional and three-dimensional problems involving an ideal gas. The results are compared with both analytical solutions and experimental observations and demonstrate that the framework provides high-order accuracy for smooth flows and accurately captures solution discontinuities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

CEED-MS8:Initial Integration of CEED Software in ECP Applications

Key components of CEED software development involve fast finite element operator storage and evaluation, architecture optimizations, performant algorithms for all orders, global kernels for finite element operators, efficient use of the memory sub-system, optimal data locality and motion, enhanced scalability and parallelism, and fast tensor contractions. As ultimate goals of the project, CEED is exploring and identifying the best algorithms for the full range of discretizations and applying algorithmic and software development to support ECP applications’ needs. In this milestone we report on the initial integration of CEED software in the selected first-wave ECP/CEED apps and the continued exploration of other ECP applications as second-wave (milestone CEED-MS23) and third-wave (milestone CEED-MS35) ECP/CEED application candidates. An extensive evaluation of various approaches for GPU acceleration of the CEED computational motives is also a major focus of the report, both in the settings of CEED’s Nekbone and Laghos miniapps, as well as versions of CEED’s bake-off problems (introduced in milestone CEED-MS6). The first-wave ECP applications targeted for coupling with CEED software include the ExaSMR and MARBL applications. We also report on near-term collaboration with the seed-funded Urban Systems project, as well as engagements with ACME, ExaAM, GEOS and the Application Assessment and Proxy App projects. The ExaSMR project involves coupled thermal-hydraulics/neutronics, with the latter based on Monte Carlo methods and the former based on high-order discretizations of the Navier-Stokes and energy equations for accurate simulation of turbulent transport. The project requires fast and efficient turbulence simulation capabilities that will scale to exascale platforms. Work within CEED will ensure that all aspects of the Nek5000 workflow scale to the target problem space, which involves > 10 10 degrees of freedom in typical production runs. CEED’s goal is to provide implementations that perform with maximum attainable efficiency and deliver low turn-around times. A deliverable for this milestone is beta-release of the GPU-based variant of Nek5000. MARBL is targeting high-energy-density physics problems, including single fluid multi-material hydrodynamics and radiation/magnetic diffusion simulation, with applications in inertial confined fusion, pulsed power experiments, and equation of state/material strength analysis. The code uses high-order methods based arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian, direct Eulerian, and unstructured adaptive mesh refinement. A deliverable for this milestone is collaboration with MARBL for improved performance based on partially-assembled operators. The Urban exascale project is planning to couple real-time data with high performance simulations to study particulate transport in cities. Nek5000 will be used for large eddy and RANS (Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes) simulations of turbulent transport in these domains. Areas where the CEED team is aiding the Urban Canyon group include creating high-order meshes for urban geometries and developing boundary conditions appropriate for simulations close to real-life urban conditions. The software artifacts delivered as part of this milestone include GPU-enabled versions of the Nekbone and Laghos miniapps, which are provided through the CEED website, http://ceed.exascaleproject.org and the CEED GitHub organization, http://github.com/ceed. In addition to details and results from the above R&D efforts, in this document we are also reporting on other project-wide activities performed in Q4 of FY17, including: the CEED first annual meeting and participation of CEED researchers in a variety of outreach activities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elasto-viscoplastic fast Fourier transform modeling framework for assessing microstructural effects on stress intensity factors characterizing fracture toughness

A large-strain elasto-viscoplastic fast Fourier transform (LS-EVPFFT) model with non-periodic (NP) velocity-based boundary conditions is adapted to simulate the sensitivity of stress intensity factors on microstructure for 304L stainless steel. The material was characterized via electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD) serial-sectioning to obtain a measured 3-D microstructural cell to perform simulations. The NP-LS-EVPFFT model, including the simulation setup and boundary conditions, was verified using a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model. To this end, the generation of meshes of notched specimens was developed, which involved creating Python scripts for mesh “cutting” in Abaqus, and Sculpt scripts in Cubit for meshing of the measured microstructural cell processed with DREAM.3D. The complexity of the mesh preparation highlighted the advantages of the FFT-based model, which circumvents the mesh generation process. Given the efficiency of the FFT-based model, statistical distribution of stress intensity factors in function of crystal orientation at the crack tip, grain structure, and crystallographic texture surrounding the crack tip were predicted. Further, the distributions reveal about 10% variation of stress intensity factors with microstructure with the most significant sensitivity found to be the crystal orientation at the crack tip. The methodology developed in this work is discussed as a practical simulation tool for predicting the sensitivity of stress intensity factors on microstructural variability in metallic materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Probability of Pinching Failure in PWR SNF after Long-Term Storage

A probabilistic assessment was performed on pinching failure of PWR SNF rod cladding under accidental SNF cask transport conditions. a set of 3,000 rod pinching scenarios was analyzed, with different geometrical, material, and loading parameters, using a Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The investigated accidents include train derailments leading to cask collisions or cask drops. Pinching failure was related to cladding offset strain, defined as the plastic deformation interval in radial cladding direction normalized with respect to the outer cladding diameter. Finite element (FE) models were used to compute SNF rod deformations and the offset strain demand OSD in each of the assessed pinching scenarios. The numerical models account for the contribution of the degraded fuel pellets to rod pinching stiffness. The offset strain capacity OSC was computed using regression and interpolation models based on ring compression (RCT) test results, and account for hydride-related effects on cladding ductility. The results show a low probability of pinching failure. Hydride-related cladding embrittlement affects the structural integrity of PWR SNF rods after long-term dry storage of up to 300 years. Radial hydride patterns or large amounts of circumferentially oriented hydrides reduce the cladding ductile deformation capability when pinched at low material temperatures. The probability of hydride-related pinching failure of PWR cladding is estimated after long-term dry storage to address: How do PWR SNF rod conditions like hydrogen content, vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress σ{sub θ}, and cladding material temperature affect cladding ductility? Is hydride-related cladding embrittlement a material degradation mechanism that affects the structural integrity of PWR SNF rods under pinching loading? What are the controlling parameters for deformation demands in PWR SNF rods under pinching loading? Is the pinching load amplitude an important parameter that controls the probability of pinching failure? How do parameters like pellet-cladding gap or fuel pellet degradation affect the pinching loading capacity of PWR SNF rods? Statistical modelling of PWR SNF rod conditions in U.S. inventory: A pseudo rod database was generated based on EIA database. Analysis of train accident scenarios: a probability density function (pdf) of a pinching load distribution P{sub 9m} of a 9-m cask drop is linearly scaled to generate a more representative: distribution P{sub AS}. The new distribution considers train collision velocities, cask drops for on- and off-bridge accidents, and cask impact orientation. LHS generates 3,000 rod pinching scenarios based on nine independent geometrical, material, and loading parameters. Probabilistic FE Analysis: The LHS realizations are used to generate 3,000 FE models. The FE analysis is conducted for P{sub 9m}, and P{sub AS}. The workflow is automatized. The OSC is computed with regression and interpolation models, as a function of the hydrogen content C{sub H}, vacuum drying peak σ{sub θ}, and SNF temperature T{sub FR}: The regression data was obtained in RCTs on PWR cladding. The OSD is derived from the cladding deformations in the FE models. Cladding failure was identified via a comparison of OSC and OSD. A 300 and a 30 years-of-dry-storage duration is investigated: The dry-storage period affects the expected SNF temperature and consequently, the OSC and the OSD. The material temperature LHS population is adapted to account for a SNF temperature variation. The probability of hydride-related, ductile cladding failure during a severe transportation accident is not significantly affected by the pinching load amplitude: The probability is slightly reduced from a range of less than 0.0333% to 0.1667% for P{sub 9m}, to a range of less than 0.0333% to 0.1333% for P{sub AS}, depending on the vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress modelling assumptions. Further, the SNF dry-storage duration does not significantly affect the probability of ductile pinching failure. Based on available train accidents data, the pinching failure probability for a 5,000 km long transportation route ranges from less than 1.62 E-7 to a value of 6.47 E-7, depending on the vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress modelling assumptions. The pinching load amplitude is not a controlling parameter for the probability of ductile cladding pinching failure, and does not control the cladding deformations once pellet-cladding contact is established, The pellet-cladding gap width, however, plays a key role. Fuel pellet degradation only affects the deformation capacity, if the pellet stiffness is significantly reduced (more than 90%). Only highly embrittled cladding is likely to fail. The deformation demands on the cladding under pinching loading are small.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗