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At least 505 records · Page 28

The CHARIS High-Contrast Integral-Field Spectrograph

One of the leading direct Imaging techniques, particularly in ground-based imaging, uses a coronagraphic system and integral field spectrograph (IFS). The Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (CHARIS) is an IFS that has been built for the Subaru telescope. CHARIS has been delivered to the observatory and now sits behind the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) system. CHARIS has 'high' and 'low' resolution operating modes. The "high-resolution" mode is used to characterize targets in J, H, and K bands at ~R70. The "low-resolution" prism is meant for discovery and spans J+H+K bands (1.15-2.37 microns) with a spectral resolution of ~R18. This discovery mode has already proven better than 15-sigma detections of HR8799c,d,e when combining ADI+SDI. Using SDI alone, planets c and d have been detected in a single 24 second image. The CHARIS team is optimizing instrument performance and refining ADI+SDI recombination to maximize our contrast detection limit. In addition to the new observing modes, CHARIS has demonstrated a design with high robustness to spectral crosstalk. CHARIS is in the final stages of commissioning, with the instrument open for science observations beginning February 2017. Here we review the science case, design, on-sky performance, engineering observations of exoplanet and disk targets, and specific lessons learned for extremely high contrast imagers. Key design aspects that will be demonstrated are crosstalk optimization, wavefront correction using the IFS image, lenslet tolerancing, the required spectral resolution to fit exoplanet atmospheres, and the utility of the spectrum in achieving higher contrast detection limits.

Groff, Tyler D.↗

Principles from Two Small SRM-Based Launcher Design/Developments

Two solid rocket motor based launch vehicles are in design and development at MSFC, a 4-stage Earth-to-Orbit vehicle cube-satellite launcher, and the 2-stage Mars Ascent Vehicle for the Mars sample return mission. Trade studies that refined these designs have benefited from developments in understanding sensitivities and approximate modeling. The development and practice of that has demonstrated 3 principles: PRINCIPLE I: Identify mission-specific key design drivers — particularly interactions (and focus knowledge-development on those). PRINCIPLE II: Agility — don’t lock down your derived requirements early — keep trading, and characterizing sensitivities. PRINCIPLE III: Use multi-fidelity tools to improve “understanding value generated per modeling effort cost.” The designer should expect different design solution techniques to derive from different mission needs. This paper shows how two launch vehicle designs developed and adapted to those needs.

Kibbey, Timothy P.↗

Pigs in cyberspace

Exploration and colonization of the universe awaits, but Earth-adapted biological humans are ill-equipped to respond to the challenge. Machines have gone farther and seen more, limited though they presently are by insect-like behavior inflexibility. As they become smarter over the coming decades, space will be theirs. Organizations of robots of ever increasing intelligence and sensory and motor ability will expand and transform what they occupy, working with matter, space and time. As they grow, a smaller and smaller fraction of their territory will be undeveloped frontier. Competitive success will depend more and more on using already available matter and space in ever more refined and useful forms. The process, analogous to the miniaturization that makes today's computers a trillion times more powerful than the mechanical calculators of the past, will gradually transform all activity from grossly physical homesteading of raw nature, to minimum-energy quantum transactions of computation. The final frontier will be urbanized, ultimately into an arena where every bit of activity is a meaningful computation: the inhabited portion of the universe will be transformed into a cyberspace. Because it will use resources more efficiently, a mature cyberspace of the distant future will be effectively much bigger than the present physical universe. While only an infinitesimal fraction of existing matter and space is doing interesting work, in a well developed cyberspace every bit will be part of a relevant computation or storing a useful datum. Over time, more compact and faster ways of using space and matter will be invented, and used to restructure the cyberspace, effectively increasing the amount of computational spacetime per unit of physical spacetime. Computational speed-ups will affect the subjective experience of entities in the cyberspace in a paradoxical way. At first glimpse, there is no subjective effect, because everything, inside and outside the individual, speeds up equally. But, more subtly, speed-up produces an expansion of the cyber universe, because, as thought accelerates, more subjective time passes during the fixed (probably lightspeed) physical transit time of a message between a given pair of locations - so those fixed locations seem to grow farther apart. Also, as information storage is made continually more efficient through both denser utilization of matter and more efficient encodings, there will be increasingly more cyber-stuff between any two points. The effect may somewhat resemble the continuous-creation process in the old steady-state theory of the physical universe of Hoyle, Bondi and Gold, where hydrogen atoms appear just fast enough throughout the expanding cosmos to maintain a constant density.

Moravec, Hans↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-32060-DND

All previous PSP testing done in the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) have required a significant amount of manual operation of the system. This has resulted in decreased testing efficiency and precluded the ability to provide near real-time data analysis to the customer. The overall goal of this project is to integrate the PSP data acquisition system into the supersonic UPWT data acquisition system (DAS) and create an adaptive software platform from which PSP data acquisition can be triggered by the tunnel and critical testing conditions can be recorded in real time for rapid analysis of the PSP data. This analysis includes the mapping of up to eight camera views onto a surface grid for analysis and converting to pressure using parameters supplied by the DAS. To fully implement this solution, communication must first be established between the Unitary DAS and the PSP DAS. This will be done by employing multiple scripts written in Python and C++ and implemented on a Linux cluster. These will be demonstrated and refined on an upcoming test (December 2018), and the successful completion will result in the ability to have automatic collection of PSP images and near real-time analysis capabilities.

Juliette Eddins↗

Human and Robotic Exploration of Near-Earth Objects

A study in late 2006 was sponsored by the Advanced Projects Office within NASA's Constellation Program to examine the feasibility of sending the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle to a near-Earth object (NEO). The ideal mission profile would involve two or three astronauts on a 90 to 180 day flight, which would include a 7 to 14 day stay for proximity operations at the target NEO. More recently U.S. President Obama stated on April 15, 2010 that the next goal for human spaceflight will be to send human beings to a near-Earth asteroid by 2025. Given this direction from the White House, NASA has been involved in studying various strategies for NEO exploration in order to follow U.S. space exploration policy. Prior to sending a human mission, a series of robotic spacecraft would be launched to reduce the risk to crew, and enhance the planning for the proximity and surface operations at the NEO. The human mission would ideally follow five or more years later. This mission would be the first human expedition to an interplanetary body beyond the Earth-Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars and other solar system destinations. Piloted missions to NEOs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific investigations of these primitive objects. The main scientific advantage of sending piloted missions to NEOs would be the flexibility of the crew to perform tasks and to adapt to situations in real time. A crewed vehicle would be able to test several different sample collection techniques and target specific areas of interest via extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) more efficiently than robotic spacecraft. Such capabilities greatly enhance the scientific return from these missions to NEOs, destinations vital to understanding the evolution and thermal histories of primitive bodies during the formation of the early solar system. Data collected from these missions would help constrain the suite of materials possibly delivered to the early Earth, and would identify potential source regions from which NEOs originate. In addition, the resulting scientific investigations would refine designs for future extraterrestrial resource extraction and utilization, and assist in the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense.

Abell, Paul A.↗

OVERFLOW Contribution to HiLiftPW-3

We plan to perform the following sets of computations: For all our contributions (except where stated) Code: OVERFLOW, Turbulence model: SAnegRCQCR2000. - 1. Results will be submitted for both the full chord flap gap (Case 1a) and partially-sealed Chord Flap gap (Case 1c): 1. Grid Refinement Study; 2. Grids: structured overset grids supplied by HiLiftPW committee; 3. Connectivity: Domain Connectivity Framework, DCF. - 2. Results will be submitted for JAXA Standard Model and Nacelle/Pylon Off (Case 2a), Nacelle/Pylon On (Case 2c): 1. Alpha Study; 2. Grids: structured overset grids supplied by HiLiftPW committee; 3. Connectivity: Pegasus 5 (Peg5). - 3. A study of the effects of different connectivity paradigms: 1. DCF vs Peg5 for HLCRM cases; 2. DCF vs. C3P (NASA Ames) vs. Peg5 for JSM cases; 3. JSM grids will be the focus where we will hopefully see some type of trends with reference to wind tunnel data. - 4. Adaption cases will be attempted for (and submitted where appropriate): 1. Cases 1c,1d: HLCRM; 2. Cases 2c and 2d: JSM; 3. Grid: Near Body grids provided by committee, OffBody grids Cartesian; 4. AMR NearBody and OffBody Adaption. - 5. Case 3 Turbulence model verification study: 1. Grid: Series of 3 finest grids as defined on http://turbmodels.larc.nasa.gov/airfoilwakeverif.html; 2. Turbulence models: SAneg and SAneg— RCQCR2000. OVERFLOW 2.2 is a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) code developed by NASA...

OVERFLOW↗

NASA's Space Launch System: Enabling Exploration and Discovery

As NASA's new Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle continues to mature toward its first flight and beyond, so too do the agency's plans for utilization of the rocket. Substantial progress has been made toward the production of the vehicle for the first flight of SLS - an initial "Block 1" configuration capable of delivering more than 70 metric tons (t) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). That vehicle will be used for an uncrewed integrated test flight, propelling NASA's Orion spacecraft into lunar orbit before it returns safely to Earth. Flight hardware for that launch is being manufactured at facilities around the United States, and, in the case of Orion's service module, beyond. At the same time, production has already begun on the vehicle for the second SLS flight, a more powerful Block 1B configuration capable of delivering more than 105 t to LEO. This configuration will be used for crewed launches of Orion, sending astronauts farther into space than anyone has previously ventured. The 1B configuration will introduce an Exploration Upper Stage, capable of both ascent and in-space propulsion, as well as a Universal Stage Adapter - a payload bay allowing the flight of exploration hardware with Orion - and unprecedentedly large payload fairings that will enable currently impossible spacecraft and mission profiles on uncrewed launches. The Block 1B vehicle will also expand on the initial configuration's ability to deploy CubeSat secondary payloads, creating new opportunities for low-cost access to deep space. Development work is also underway on future upgrades to SLS, which will culminate in about a decade in the Block 2 configuration, capable of delivering 130 t to LEO via the addition of advanced boosters. As the first SLS draws closer to launch, NASA continues to refine plans for the human deep-space exploration it will enable. Planning currently focuses on use of the vehicle to assemble a Deep Space Gateway, which would comprise a habitat in the lunar vicinity allowing astronauts to gain experience living and working in deep space, a testbed for new systems and capabilities needed for exploration beyond, and a departure point for NASA and partners to send missions to other destinations. Assembly of the Gateway would be followed by a Deep Space Transport, which would be a vehicle capable of carrying astronauts farther into our solar system and eventually to Mars. This paper will give an overview of SLS' current status and its capabilities, and discuss current utilization planning.

Schorr, Andrew↗

Dynamics of Numerics & Spurious Behaviors in CFD Computations

The global nonlinear behavior of finite discretizations for constant time steps and fixed or adaptive grid spacings is studied using tools from dynamical systems theory. Detailed analysis of commonly used temporal and spatial discretizations for simple model problems is presented. The role of dynamics in the understanding of long time behavior of numerical integration and the nonlinear stability, convergence, and reliability of using time-marching approaches for obtaining steady-state numerical solutions in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is explored. The study is complemented with examples of spurious behavior observed in steady and unsteady CFD computations. The CFD examples were chosen to illustrate non-apparent spurious behavior that was difficult to detect without extensive grid and temporal refinement studies and some knowledge from dynamical systems theory. Studies revealed the various possible dangers of misinterpreting numerical simulation of realistic complex flows that are constrained by available computing power. In large scale computations where the physics of the problem under study is not well understood and numerical simulations are the only viable means of solution, extreme care must be taken in both computation and interpretation of the numerical data. The goal of this paper is to explore the important role that dynamical systems theory can play in the understanding of the global nonlinear behavior of numerical algorithms and to aid the identification of the sources of numerical uncertainties in CFD.

Yee, Helen C.↗

Interfacing and Verifying ALHAT Safe Precision Landing Systems with the Morpheus Vehicle

The NASA Autonomous precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project developed a suite of prototype sensors to enable autonomous and safe precision landing of robotic or crewed vehicles under any terrain lighting conditions. Development of the ALHAT sensor suite was a cross-NASA effort, culminating in integration and testing on-board a variety of terrestrial vehicles toward infusion into future spaceflight applications. Terrestrial tests were conducted on specialized test gantries, moving trucks, helicopter flights, and a flight test onboard the NASA Morpheus free-flying, rocket-propulsive flight-test vehicle. To accomplish these tests, a tedious integration process was developed and followed, which included both command and telemetry interfacing, as well as sensor alignment and calibration verification to ensure valid test data to analyze ALHAT and Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) performance. This was especially true for the flight test campaign of ALHAT onboard Morpheus. For interfacing of ALHAT sensors to the Morpheus flight system, an adaptable command and telemetry architecture was developed to allow for the evolution of per-sensor Interface Control Design/Documents (ICDs). Additionally, individual-sensor and on-vehicle verification testing was developed to ensure functional operation of the ALHAT sensors onboard the vehicle, as well as precision-measurement validity for each ALHAT sensor when integrated within the Morpheus GNC system. This paper provides some insight into the interface development and the integrated-systems verification that were a part of the build-up toward success of the ALHAT and Morpheus flight test campaigns in 2014. These campaigns provided valuable performance data that is refining the path toward spaceflight infusion of the ALHAT sensor suite.

Carson, John M., III↗

Robonaut 2 - Building a Robot on the International Space Station

In 2010, the Robonaut Project embarked on a multi‐phase mission to perform technology demonstrations on‐board the International Space Station (ISS), showcasing state of the art robotics technologies through the use of Robonaut 2 (R2). This phased approach implements a strategy that allows for the use of ISS as a test bed during early development to both demonstrate capability and test technology while still making advancements in the earth based laboratories for future testing and operations in space. While R2 was performing experimental trials onboard the ISS during the first phase, engineers were actively designing for Phase 2, Intra‐Vehicular Activity (IVA) Mobility, that utilizes a set of zero‐g climbing legs outfitted with grippers to grasp handrails and seat tracks. In addition to affixing the new climbing legs to the existing R2 torso, it became clear that upgrades to the torso to both physically accommodate the climbing legs and to expand processing power and capabilities of the robot were required. In addition to these upgrades, a new safety architecture was also implemented in order to account for the expanded capabilities of the robot. The IVA climbing legs not only needed to attach structurally to the R2 torso on ISS, but also required power and data connections that did not exist in the upper body. The climbing legs were outfitted with a blind mate adapter and coarse alignment guides for easy installation, but the upper body required extensive rewiring to accommodate the power and data connections. This was achieved by mounting a custom adapter plate to the torso and routing the additional wiring through the waist joint to connect to the new set of processors. In addition to the power and data channels, the integrated unit also required updated electronics boards, additional sensors and updated processors to accommodate a new operating system, software platform, and custom control system. In order to perform the unprecedented task of building a robot in space, extensive practice sessions and meticulous procedures were required. Since crew training time is at a premium, the R2 team took a skills‐based training approach to ensure the astronauts were proficient with a basic skill set while refining the detailed procedures over several practice sessions and simulations. In addition to the crew activities, meticulous ground procedures were required in order to upgrade firmware on the upper body motor drivers. The new firmware for the IVA mobility unit needed to be deployed using the old software system. This also provided an opportunity to upgrade the upper body joints with new software and allowed for limited insight into the success of the updates. Complete verification that the updated firmware was successfully loaded was not confirmed until the rewiring of the upper body torso was complete.

Diftler, Myron↗

Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA)

With the very recent advent of NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project (ERA), which is dedicated to designing aircraft that will reduce the impact of aviation on the environment, there is a need for research and development of methodologies to minimize fuel burn, emissions, and reduce community noise produced by regional airliners. ERA tackles airframe technology, propulsion technology, and vehicle systems integration to meet performance objectives in the time frame for the aircraft to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 4-6 by the year of 2020 (deemed N+2). The proceeding project that investigated similar goals to ERA was NASA's Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW). SFW focused on conducting research to improve prediction methods and technologies that will produce lower noise, lower emissions, and higher performing subsonic aircraft for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The work provided in this investigation was a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) contract #NNL07AA55C funded by Subsonic Fixed Wing. The project started in 2007 with a specific goal of conducting a large-scale wind tunnel test along with the development of new and improved predictive codes for the advanced powered-lift concepts. Many of the predictive codes were incorporated to refine the wind tunnel model outer mold line design. The large scale wind tunnel test goal was to investigate powered lift technologies and provide an experimental database to validate current and future modeling techniques. Powered-lift concepts investigated were Circulation Control (CC) wing in conjunction with over-the-wing mounted engines to entrain the exhaust to further increase the lift generated by CC technologies alone. The NRA was a five-year effort; during the first year the objective was to select and refine CESTOL concepts and then to complete a preliminary design of a large-scale wind tunnel model for the large scale test. During the second, third, and fourth years the large-scale wind tunnel model design would be completed, manufactured, and calibrated. During the fifth year the large scale wind tunnel test was conducted. This technical memo will describe all phases of the Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA) project and provide a brief summary of the background and modeling efforts involved in the NRA. The conceptual designs considered for this project and the decision process for the selected configuration adapted for a wind tunnel model will be briefly discussed. The internal configuration of AMELIA, and the internal measurements chosen in order to satisfy the requirements of obtaining a database of experimental data to be used for future computational model validations. The external experimental techniques that were employed during the test, along with the large-scale wind tunnel test facility are covered in great detail. Experimental measurements in the database include forces and moments, and surface pressure distributions, local skin friction measurements, boundary and shear layer velocity profiles, far-field acoustic data and noise signatures from turbofan propulsion simulators. Results and discussion of the circulation control performance, over-the-wing mounted engines, and the combined performance are also discussed in great detail.

Subsonic Fixed Wing↗

NASA's Space Launch System: Enabling Exploration and Discovery

As NASA's new Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle continues to mature toward its first flight and beyond, so too do the agency's plans for utilization of the rocket. Substantial progress has been made toward the production of the vehicle for the first flight of SLS - an initial "Block 1" configuration capable of delivering more than 70 metric tons (t) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). That vehicle will be used for an uncrewed integrated test flight, propelling NASA's Orion spacecraft into lunar orbit before it returns safely to Earth. Flight hardware for that launch is being manufactured at facilities around the United States, and, in the case of Orion's service module, beyond. At the same time, production has already begun on the vehicle for the second SLS flight, a more powerful Block 1B configuration capable of delivering more than 105 metric tons to LEO. This configuration will be used for crewed launches of Orion, sending astronauts farther into space than anyone has previously ventured. The 1B configuration will introduce an Exploration Upper Stage, capable of both ascent and in-space propulsion, as well as a Universal Stage Adapter - a payload bay allowing the flight of exploration hardware with Orion - and unprecedentedly large payload fairings that will enable currently impossible spacecraft and mission profiles on uncrewed launches. The Block 1B vehicle will also expand on the initial configuration's ability to deploy CubeSat secondary payloads, creating new opportunities for low-cost access to deep space. Development work is also underway on future upgrades to SLS, which will culminate in about a decade in the Block 2 configuration, capable of delivering 130 metric tons to LEO via the addition of advanced boosters. As the first SLS draws closer to launch, NASA continues to refine plans for the human deep-space exploration it will enable. Planning currently focuses on use of the vehicle to assemble a Deep Space Gateway, which would comprise a habitat in the lunar vicinity allowing astronauts to gain experience living and working in deep space, a testbed for new systems and capabilities needed for exploration beyond, and a departure point for NASA and partners to send missions to other destinations. Assembly of the Gateway would be followed by a Deep Space Transport, which would be a vehicle capable of carrying astronauts farther into our solar system and eventually to Mars. This paper will give an overview of SLS' current status and its capabilities, and discuss current utilization planning.

Robinson, Kimberly F.↗

Systems Maintenance Automated Repair Tasks (SMART)

SMART is an interactive decision analysis and refinement software system that uses evaluation criteria for discrepant conditions to automatically provide and populate a document/procedure with predefined steps necessary to repair a discrepancy safely, effectively, and efficiently. SMART can store the tacit (corporate) knowledge merging the hardware specification requirements with the actual "how to" repair methods, sequences, and required equipment, all within a user-friendly interface. Besides helping organizations retain repair knowledge in streamlined procedures and sequences, SMART can also help them in saving processing time and expense, increasing productivity, improving quality, and adhering more closely to safety and other guidelines. Though SMART was developed for Space Shuttle applications, its interface is easily adaptable to any hardware that can be broken down by component, subcomponent, discrepancy, and repair.

Source record↗

Development of the One-Sided Nonlinear Adaptive Doppler Shift Estimation

The new development of a one-sided nonlinear adaptive shift estimation technique (NADSET) is introduced. The background of the algorithm and a brief overview of NADSET are presented. The new technique is applied to the wind parameter estimates from a 2-micron wavelength coherent Doppler lidar system called VALIDAR located in NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. The new technique enhances wind parameters such as Doppler shift and power estimates in low Signal-To-Noise-Ratio (SNR) regimes using the estimates in high SNR regimes as the algorithm scans the range bins from low to high altitude. The original NADSET utilizes the statistics in both the lower and the higher range bins to refine the wind parameter estimates in between. The results of the two different approaches of NADSET are compared.

Beyon, Jeffrey Y.↗

User Manual for Beta Version of TURBO-GRD: A Software System for Interactive Two-Dimensional Boundary/ Field Grid Generation, Modification, and Refinement

TURBO-GRD is a software system for interactive two-dimensional boundary/field grid generation. modification, and refinement. Its features allow users to explicitly control grid quality locally and globally. The grid control can be achieved interactively by using control points that the user picks and moves on the workstation monitor or by direct stretching and refining. The techniques used in the code are the control point form of algebraic grid generation, a damped cubic spline for edge meshing and parametric mapping between physical and computational domains. It also performs elliptic grid smoothing and free-form boundary control for boundary geometry manipulation. Internal block boundaries are constructed and shaped by using Bezier curve. Because TURBO-GRD is a highly interactive code, users can read in an initial solution, display its solution contour in the background of the grid and control net, and exercise grid modification using the solution contour as a guide. This process can be called an interactive solution-adaptive grid generation.

Choo, Yung K.↗

Performance of a Smart Vibration Isolator for Precision Spacecraft Instruments

Under the ARPA SMS Partnership Program for Synthesis and Processing of Smart Materials, Lockheed Missiles and Space company, Inc. has developed a demonstration prototype vibration cancelling mount using electrostrictive ceramic and shape-memory alloy actuators. Shape-memory actuators provide an adaptive-passive, self-damping support for isolation, while the electrostrictive actuators are employed to provide force and position control. The demonstration device was designed to address generic requirements for vibration stabilization of precision spacecraft instruments. It is reconfigurable to operate in any of four modes; passive isolation, active-passive isolation using force cancellation, active precision positioning, and active disturbance rejection. The presentation summarizes design of the device design and results of experimental evaluations of the device in isolation (active and passive) and positioning modes. Rejection of payload-borne disturbances is also discussed with reference to predictions from experimentally calibrated simulations. Finally, avenues for further development and refinement of the device are discussed.

Regelbrugge, Marc E.↗

Assessment of Preconditioner for a USM3D Hierarchical Adaptive Nonlinear Method (HANIM) (Invited)

Enhancements to the previously reported mixed-element USM3D Hierarchical Adaptive Nonlinear Iteration Method (HANIM) framework have been made to further improve robustness, efficiency, and accuracy of computational fluid dynamic simulations. The key enhancements include a multi-color line-implicit preconditioner, a discretely consistent symmetry boundary condition, and a line-mapping method for the turbulence source term discretization. The USM3D iterative convergence for the turbulent flows is assessed on four configurations. The configurations include a two-dimensional (2D) bump-in-channel, the 2D NACA 0012 airfoil, a three-dimensional (3D) bump-in-channel, and a 3D hemisphere cylinder. The Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) solutions have been obtained using a Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and families of uniformly refined nested grids. Two types of HANIM solutions using line- and point-implicit preconditioners have been computed. Additional solutions using the point-implicit preconditioner alone (PA) method that broadly represents the baseline solver technology have also been computed. The line-implicit HANIM shows superior iterative convergence in most cases with progressively increasing benefits on finer grids.

Pandya, Mohagna J.↗

Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.

burning embers diagram↗